Assessment of Flood Losses with Household Responses: Agent-Based Simulation in an Urban Catchment Area

Densely populated coastal urban areas are often exposed to multiple hazards, in particular floods and storms. Flood defenses and other engineering measures contribute to the mitigation of flood hazards, but a holistic approach to flood risk management should consider other interventions from the human side, including warning information, adaptive behavior, people/property evacuation, and the multilateral relief in local communities. There are few simulation approaches to consider these factors, and these typically focus on collective human actions. This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates flood response preferences and actions taken within individual households to reduce flood losses. The model implements a human response framework in which agents assess different flood scenarios according to warning information and decide whether and how much they invest in response measures to reduce potential inundation damages. A case study has been carried out in the Ng Tung River basin, an urbanized watershed in northern Hong Kong. Adopting a digital elevation model (DEM) as the modeling environment and a building map of household locations in the case area, the model considers the characteristics of households and the flood response behavior of their occupants. We found that property value, warning information, and storm conditions all influence household losses, with downstream and high density areas being particularly vulnerable. Results further indicate (i) that a flood warning system, which provides timely, accurate, and broad coverage rainstorm warning, can reduce flood losses by 30–40%; and (ii) to reduce losses, it is more effective and cheaper to invest early in response measures than late actions. This dynamic agent-based modeling approach is an innovative attempt to quantify and model the role of human responses in flood loss assessments. The model is demonstrated being useful for analyzing household scale flood losses and responses and it has the potential to contribute to flood emergency planning resource allocation in pluvial flood incidents.     

Air Quality Improvement Estimation and Assessment Using Contingent Valuation Method, A Case Study in Beijing

The aim of the paper is to estimate and assess residents' willingness to pay to improve air quality in the urban area of Beijing using the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). The mean willingness to pay (WTP) for a 50% reduction of harmful substances in the air was 143 CNY per household per year, and the total WTP of the residents in the study area was 336 million CNY per year. As a proportion of household annual income, the mean WTP amounted to 0.7%. Four socio-economic variables were found to have significant impacts on residents' willingness to pay. The analysis results illustrated that WTP increases with income and education level, and decreases with household population and age. The willingness was larger for residents in the urban districts than those in the suburban districts. It was found that most of the protest bids lay on interviewees' incomplete perception of the values of environmental amenity. The influence of household income on people's willingness to pay illustrated in this study reflects a causal force of Beijing's transition to market economy that households created to have disposable income are more likely to care about environmental quality. The results of this study strike an optimistic note on the possibility of measuring the total economic value of environmental quality improvement by using the CVM in China. Suggestions on implication of the CVM for both academics and policy makers are provided in the paper.     

Potential for reducing air pollution from oil refineries

Islamic Republic of Iran has to invest 95 billion US$ for her new oil refineries to the year 2045. At present, the emission factors for CO(2), NO( x ) and SO(2) are 3.5, 4.2 and 119 times higher than British refineries, respectively. In order to have a sustainable development in Iranian oil refineries, the government has to set emission factors of European Community as her goal. At present CO(2) per Gross Domestic Production (GDP) in the country is about 2.7 kg CO(2) as 1995's USD value that should be reduced to 1.25 kg CO(2)/GDP in the year 2015. Total capital investment for such reduction is estimated at 346 million USD which is equal to 23 USD/ton of CO(2). It is evident that mitigation of funds set by Clean Development Mechanism (3 to 7 USD/tons of CO(2)) is well below the actual capital investment needs. Present survey shows that energy efficiency promotion potential in all nine Iranian oil refineries is about 165,677 MWh/year through utilization of more efficient pumps and compressors. Better management of boilers in all nine refineries will lead to a saving of 273 million m(3) of natural gas per year.     

Assessment of flood adaptive capacity of urban areas in Thailand

Urban floods have a significant impact on the economy, livelihoods, and daily activities. Despite extensive research on flood adaptation, there is a lack of consensus on ways to assess flood adaptive capacity. This research thus proposes an assessment framework of flood adaptive capacity of urban residents in flood-prone areas. The indicators are based on six components: economic resources, social capital, awareness and training, technology, infrastructure, and institutions and policies. The relevancy of the indicators was evaluated by experts in related fields, and a questionnaire was developed to collect data from a random sample of 230 households in 10 flood-prone municipalities in Thailand. Statistical analysis and structural equation modeling were subsequently performed to validate the components and indicators, and a flood-adaptability questionnaire was constructed. As a trial implementation, the questionnaire was applied to a target flood-prone municipality, Phetchaburi, to assess its adaptive capacity to flooding, expressed as flood adaptive capacity index. The adaptive capacity of Phetchaburi municipality to flooding was found to be high indicating the improvement in economic resources and infrastructure components. These findings reveal that the proposed framework is suitable for assessing the flood adaptive capacity of urban residents and useful for integrated flood risk assessment and management.     

Relation of waste generation and composition to socio-economic factors: a case study

To develop an effective waste management strategy for a given region, it is important to know the amount of waste generated and the composition of the waste stream. Past research has shown that the amount of waste generated is proportional to the population and the average mean living standards or the average income of the people. In addition, other factors may affect the amount and composition of waste. These are climate, living habits, level of education, religious and cultural beliefs, and social and public attitudes. This paper presents the findings of a study carried out in a suburban municipal area in Sri Lanka to determine the solid waste generation rate and waste composition based on field surveys and to determine the related socio-economic factors. A database was developed that included information on the quantity and composition of waste generated in a sample of households in the study area over a time period. The collected data was analysed to relate waste generation and composition data to various socio-economic factors. Over 400 sample households were selected for the study using a stratified random sampling methodology based on municipal wards and property values. A technique that considers both the number of households in a particular income group (property value range) and the standard deviation of property values within a given income group was used to determine the appropriate sample size for each municipal ward. Through category and regression analyses, the quantities of waste and waste composition were related to several socio-economic factors. The paper describes the basis for the sample selection, the methodology adopted for data collection, the socio-economic parameters used for the analysis, and the relationships developed from the analysis.     

An Optimization Model for Integrated Coastal Management: Development and a Case Study Using Italy’s Comacchio Municipality

In this paper, I develop an optimization model for integrated coastal management in which decisions arise from an area-based algorithm that minimizes predicted damage caused by beach erosion and inshore flooding, while accounting for economic, social, and environmental losses. The model favors the involvement of stakeholders in coastal management, but does not use complicated assessment procedures for non-economic indicators or relative weights to combine economic, social, and environmental indicators. Instead, the integration between economic activities or properties and the environmental status and landscape is represented objectively and non-linearly by referring to initial and sustainability conditions, combined with budgetary and environmental constraints. The model successfully accounted for both human and environmental dynamics by depicting delayed effects, neighborhood externalities, and feedback effects. It calculated a single optimal value for each integrated coastal management strategy, which permitted the support of future decisions and the evaluation of past decisions. The model’s insights were based on reliable estimates, with reliability determined by calculating the confidence level. The model was successfully applied to Italy’s Comacchio coastal municipality, where it revealed the priorities for optimal beach nourishment, dune fixation, and residential and holiday housing development based on budget constraints, beach losses, flood damage, pollution impacts, and land-use constraints.     

Assessing the value of species: a case study on the willingness to pay for species protection in Chile

We conduct a valuation of species protection in central Chile's Campana National Park (CNP) using the choice experiment (CE) method. The CNP has been recognized as having global relevance for the conservation of biological diversity. Specifically, the aim is to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) of park visitors for protection of different protected species in the area: popular species of flora and fauna that are known by visitors of the park, inconspicuous species (phytofagous, fungus) that are unknown to visitors, and species with conservation problems of which visitors are unaware. We also investigate the WTP for different levels of species biodiversity protection within the sample as the WTP for biodiversity protection is sensitive to the way in which biodiversity is presented to respondents. The levels of species biodiversity protection are represented using “icon” inconspicuous species and numbers of inconspicuous species protected in La Campana National Park. This methodology allowed us to obtain information on the sensitivity of the participants to the scope of the information provided. Overall, visitors attach positive and significant values to the local conservation of species. These values are derived not only from the desire to preserve popular species in the area but also from the preservation or assured existence of inconspicuous species that are protected in the park. Visitors behave as consumers who are sensitive to changes in the price of park admission as a result of the implementation of specific strategies for wildlife conservation management in the park. Furthermore, the study also elucidates the observations that the public is able to perceive biodiversity conservation in broader terms than a single species and that greater benefits are attached to the conservation of multiple species than single ones. Results also provide insights into methodological considerations regarding the conceptual framework used to assess the valuation of biodiversity changes in developing countries, including the level of biological diversity and the scale of the change.     

Change in drinking water quality from source to point-of-use and storage: a case study from Guwahati, India

To ascertain the quality of drinking water being supplied and maintained at Guwahati, the study was conducted on the status of water supply in city through surveillance of drinking water quality for consecutive 7 days at various treatment stages, distribution network and consumer ends. The performance of five water treatment plants (WTPs), viz. Panbazar WTP, Satpukhuri WTP, Kamakhya WTP, PHED WTP and Hegrabari WTP were assessed for summer, piost-post-monsoon and winter seasons. No significant change in raw water quality was observed on day-to-day basis. Residual chlorine was found in the range of nil to 0.2 mg/L in the treated water. During post-monsoon, winter, and summer seasons the thermotolerent TC and FC counts ranged between Nil to 168 CFU/100 ml and Nil to 84 CFU/100 ml; Nil to 3356 CFU/100 ml and Nil to 152 CFU/100 ml; and Nil to 960 CFU/100 ml and Nil to 108 CFU/100 ml respectively. There was variation in bacterial counts among the different service reservoirs and consumer ends, which may be attributed to the general management practices for maintenance of service reservoirs and the possibility of enroute contamination. Evaluation of the raw water quality indicate that the water is suitable for drinking after conventional treatment followed by disinfection. The finished water quality meets the level of standards described as per Bureau of Indian Standard specifications (BIS:10500 1991) for potability in terms of its physico-chemical characteristics.     

Estimating willingness to pay for environment conservation: a contingent valuation study of Kanas Nature Reserve, Xinjiang, China

The primary objective of this study is to estimate publics' willingness to pay (WTP) for environment conservation and analyze factors influencing WTP. A questionnaire survey based on the contingent valuation method (CVM) was carried out at Kanas Nature Reserve, Xinjiang, China. Seventy-three percent of the 412 respondents were willing to pay at different levels, and the mean WTP value was RMB 54.60 ($8.03). The results of this survey struck an optimistic note that publics were willing to contribute to improve environmental quality. Logistic regression analysis was employed to compare the characteristics of those who were and were not willing to pay. Chi-square tests were administered to identify the relationships between various explanatory factors and WTP. Conclusions and implications of the empirical study can be provided to policy makers and site managers. In a wider sense, the findings of this study should make a good contribution to the literature related to WTP for environment conservation of natural attractions.     

污染场地环境风险评价中可接受风险水平探讨

简述了可接受风险水平的内涵及其发展历程,介绍了国外污染场地环境风险评价中可接受风险水平的选取。提出我国污染场地风险评价和修复治理应合理选取风险可接受水平数值,梳理现有修复治理工程修复目标值的制定过程,建立差异化的可接受风险水平标准体系。     

The Valuation of Health Effects Caused by Stationary Sources–Related SO2 Emissions: The Adaptation of Impact Pathway Approach in Taiwan

This paper presents the externalities of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) in the Taichung metropolitan, Taiwan. The human effects of SO₂ from stationary sources are a key element for local air quality management. A methodology to evaluate those effects in monetary term had been adapted and applied. This method was modified from the EU-based impact pathway approach link to the skill of geographic information systems. The studied area was divided into 66 districts and the quantity of SO₂ was allocated to each district. Then, the ambient concentration of SO₂ was estimated by using the ordinary kriging method. A risk analysis was employed to characterize the health impacts caused by SO₂. Finally, a monetary transfer approach based on the European data was conducted to estimate local damage costs per ton of SO₂. Health impacts, especially acute mortality, dominate in term of costs. The calculation showed that damage costs ranged from 0.56 to 7.38 USD/kg SO₂ based on the 2002 emission data. The results could be used in the internalization of SO₂ externalities and management of the stationary sources in the studied area. This paper also concludes that the externalities caused by stationary-related SO₂ emissions are some 28.5 million US dollars in Taichung metropolitan (Taiwan) in 2002.     

Validity of CVM related to the type of environmental good; an empirical test

This research explores the boundaries of a valid application of contingent valuation as a method to value environmental changes. Recent criticism from social psychologists refers to unrealistic cognitive demands upon respondents. Criticism from economists point to the problem of measuring preferences in relation to non-use values. In this research the hypothesis is tested that the CV method in valuing goods with non-use value and with a complex content of information produces less valid results than with use values and non-complex content of information. Validity is tested across goods (sample survey: N=832). Results show that scope validity is ambiguous for goods with high content of complexity. Construct validity is not guaranteed for environmental changes with non-use values: Economic factors are not significant, only attitudes are relevant. Given the importance of WTP figures in cost-benefit analysis these results are of paramount importance for the trust in contingent valuation.     

Vegetated ditches as a management practice in irrigated alfalfa

The organophosphate (OP) insecticides diazinon and chlorpyrifos have been frequently detected in the San Joaquin River, California, USA. Irrigation tail waters are a significant source of OP pesticides in the watershed. This study tested several management practices for reducing offsite movement of chlorpyrifos to surface water from flood irrigated alfalfa. Management practices evaluated include (1) a constructed, vegetated irrigation tailwater return ditch and (2) increased lag time between chlorpyrifos application and start of flood irrigation. Chlorpyrifos concentrations in whole-water samples of irrigation runoff were variable and ranged from 0.22 mug/l to a maximum of 1.67 mug/l. The median concentration reduction at the end of a 200 m vegetated ditch was 38% compared to 1% in an adjacent conventional tail water ditch. Runoff data collected represented first flush runoff from sets that were irrigated between 48 and 144 h after chlorpyrifos application. There was no consistent effect of irrigation lag time on chlorpyrifos concentration in tailwater for lag times of up to 144 h. Consequently these data indicate that delayed irrigation is not an effective management practice for reducing chlorpyrifos off-site movement to surface water in California flood irrigated alfalfa.     

大型水电工程地质环境质量损益经济评价研究

大型水电工程建设是社会基础性的大投资，具有发电、供水、防洪、航运及养殖等多种效益，但同时又对地质环境带来一定程度的损害。本文从水电工程与地质环境的相互关系出发，建立了分析评价指标体系和评价模型，就大型水电工程地质环境质量损益的经济评价提出了自己的看法。     

A GIS-based spatial multi-index model for flood risk assessment in the Yangtze River Basin,China

This paper developed a GIS-based spatial multi-index model for large basin-scale flood risk assessment. In terms of the risk definition proposed by the IPCC, the flood risk in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) was classified into indexes of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The model systematically accounts for various flood risk indicators related to the economic, social and ecological environment of the YRB. Using the robust data space analysis and processing capabilities of ArcGIS, these flood risk indicators were superimposed and analyzed to generate an integrated flood risk spatial distribution map for the YRB. The modeling results were verified reasonably well using observation data from the YRB floods in 1998, 2008, and 2016. We found that 24.90% of the study area was at very high and high risk in 1998, and the risk in these areas decreased to 15.95% and 17.61% in 2008 and 2016, respectively. We believe that the GIS-based spatial multi-index model can be applied to other areas where basin-scale flood risk assessment is desired and contribute to further scientific research on flood forecasting and mitigation.     

Organic Liquids Storage Tanks Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCS) Emissions Dispersion and Risk Assessment in Developing Countries: The Case of Dar-Es-Salaam City, Tanzania

The emission estimation of nine volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from eight organic liquids storage tanks companies in Dar-es-Salaam City Tanzania has been done by using US EPA standard regulatory storage tanks emission model (TANKS 4.9b). Total VOCs atmospheric emission has been established to be 853.20 metric tones/yr. It has been established further that petrol storage tanks contribute about 87% of total VOCs emitted, while tanks for other refined products and crude oil were emitting 10% and 3% of VOCs respectively. Of the eight sources (companies), the highest emission value from a single source was 233,222.94 kg/yr and the lowest single source emission value was 6881.87 kg/yr. The total VOCs emissions estimated for each of the eight sources were found to be higher than the standard level of 40,000 kg/yr per source for minor source according to US EPA except for two sources, which were emitting VOCs below the standard level. The annual emissions per single source for each of the VOCs were found to be below the US EPA emissions standard which is 2,000~kg/yr in all companies except the emission of hexane from company F1 which was slightly higher than the standard. The type of tanks used seems to significantly influence the emission rate. Vertical fixed roof tanks (VFRT) emit a lot more than externally floating roof tanks (EFRT) and internally floating roof tanks (IFRT). The use of IFRT and EFRT should be encouraged especially for storage of petrol which had highest atmospheric emission contribution. Model predicted atmospheric emissions are less than annual losses measured by companies in all the eight sources. It is possible that there are other routes for losses beside atmospheric emissions. It is therefore important that waste reduction efforts in these companies are directed not only to reducing atmospheric emissions, but also prevention of the spillage and leakage of stored liquid and curbing of the frequently reported illegal siphoning of stored products. Emission rates for benzene, toluene, and xylene were used as input to CALPUFF air dispersion model for the calculation of spatial downwind concentrations from area sources. By using global positioning system (GPS) and geographical information system (GIS) the spatial benzene concentration contributed by organic liquid storage tanks has been mapped for Dar-es-Salaam City. Highest concentrations for all the three toxic pollutants were observed at Kigamboni area, possibly because the area is located at the wind prevailing direction from the locations of the storage tanks. The model predicted concentrations downwind from the sources were below tolerable concentrations by WHO and US-OSHA. The highest 24 hrs averaging time benzene concentration was used for risk assessment in order to determine maximum carcinogenic risk amongst the population exposed at downwind. Established risk for adult and children at 2.9×10^-3 and 1.9×10^-3 respectively, are higher than the acceptable US-EPA risk of 1×10^-6. It is very likely that the actual VOCs concentrations in some urban areas in Tanzania including Dar-es-Salaam City are much higher than the levels reported in this study when other sources such as petrol stations and motor vehicles on the roads are considered. Tanzania Government therefore need to put in place: an air quality policy and legislation, establish air quality guidelines and acquire facilities which will enable the implementation of air quality monitoring and management programmes.     

The effects of socioeconomic parameters on household solid-waste generation and composition in developing countries (a case study: Ahvaz,Iran)

Environment problems associated with the generation of waste are part of societal changes where households play an important role. These societal changes influence the size, structure and characteristic of given households. For the effective planning of solid-waste handling infrastructure, it is essential to know the quantity of waste generation and its composition. This paper presents the findings of a study carried out in an urban municipal area in Iran to determine the household solid-waste generation rate and waste composition based on field surveys and to determine the related socioeconomic parameters. The dependent variables were waste generation and composition, and independent variables were family size, family employment, age, number of room and education. Over 400 sample households were selected for the study using a stratified random sampling methodology and from five different socioeconomic groups. Waste collected from all groups of households were segregated and weighted. Waste generation rate was 5.4 kg/household/day. Household solid waste comprised of ten categories of wastes and with the largest component (76.9%). The generation and composition of household solid waste were correlated with family size, education level and households income. This paper adequately suggests new insights concerning the role of socioeconomic parameters in affecting the generation of household waste.     

Fusing probability density function into Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence for the evaluation of water treatment plant

The evaluation of the status of a municipal drinking water treatment plant (WTP) is important. The evaluation depends on several factors, including, human health risks from disinfection by-products (R), disinfection performance (D), and cost (C) of water production and distribution. The Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) of evidence can combine the individual status with respect to R, D, and C to generate a new indicator, from which the overall status of a WTP can be evaluated. In the DST, the ranges of different factors affecting the overall status are divided into several segments. The basic probability assignments (BPA) for each segment of these factors are provided by multiple experts, which are then combined to obtain the overall status. In assigning the BPA, the experts use their individual judgments, which can impart subjective biases in the overall evaluation. In this research, an approach has been introduced to avoid the assignment of subjective BPA. The factors contributing to the overall status were characterized using the probability density functions (PDF). The cumulative probabilities for different segments of these factors were determined from the cumulative density function, which were then assigned as the BPA for these factors. A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of PDF in DST to evaluate a WTP, leading to the selection of the required level of upgradation for the WTP.     

活性氧化铝吸附法在河道砷污染应急处置中的应用

以江苏省邳苍分洪道砷污染事件为例,介绍了活性氧化铝吸附法在大型砷污染河流中的应急处置,对污染的背景、治污处理工艺水平、处理方案和过程进行探讨。结果表明,该方法对大水量、中低浓度的水体砷污染治理有一定的效果,为今后此类事件的应急处置提供了借鉴。     

Monitoring quantity and characteristics of municipal solid waste in Dhaka City

A reliable estimate of the quantity of solid waste generation in the city is very important for proper solid waste planning and management. However, reported estimates of solid waste generation vary widely and lead to questionability. The reported values have been derived on the assumption of demography, standard rate of waste generation by households, density values, number of trucks engaged for waste transportation and monitoring of truck movement at dump sites, etc. This diverse nature of the available data and the question of accuracy necessitate a rigorous study that has tried to document the waste quantity in the recently formulated master plan of Dhaka City. The socio-economic parameters, behavioral characteristics, generation sources, seasonality, and per capita growth rate are considered in estimating the waste quantity along with its future projections. The findings from the estimation of waste quantities state that seasonal differences in the municipal solid waste stream are not substantial. The most seasonably variable material in the municipal solid waste stream is food waste. Residential waste is relatively homogeneous. Although there are some differences in waste generation depending on demographic and other local factors, most households dispose of essentially similar types of wastes. Variation occurs in waste composition dependent upon income levels and category of sources. Variation also occurs based upon the extent of source reduction and recycling opportunities. As opportunities exist to recycle wastes, the recycling facilities might have to grow at a similar pace to the generation of waste. Physical and chemical characteristics of solid waste are important to implement the waste disposal and management plan for the selection of resource and energy recovery potentials. A number of studies have been conducted to determine the composition of wastes including moisture content and calorific value. The data show that the moisture content in city waste is significantly higher and the calorific value is much lower, which determines the viability of composting or anaerobic digestions rather than waste combustion.