Heavy metals in Yeniçağa Lake and its potential sources: soil,water, sediment,and plankton

The distribution and accumulation of heavy metals (Al, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Mo, Cd, Sn, Ba, Pb) in the water, sediments, plankton of Yeniça?a Lake, and its potential sources (creeks, sewage, artesian well, soil) were investigated during 1-year study period as monthly or seasonally. Element analyses were performed by ICP–MS. Results showed that the trace and toxic elements (Al, As, Mn, Pb, Fe) concentration in lake water and/or its feeding sources were above the recommended water standards (WHO, EC, EPA, TS-266). It was found that the maximum accumulation of the heavy metals iron, aluminum, manganese, zinc, and barium in the sediment of Yeniça?a Lake. The accumulation order of trace metals were Fe > Al > Mn > Zn > Ba > Ni > Cr > As > Cu > Pb > Co > Mo > Sn > Cd in the lake, creeks sediment, and soil samples. The similar results suggest that the accumulation of heavy metals in the sediment is a natural process. Metals accumulated in the lake are naturally mixed from the soil. However, the presence of heavy metals in the analysis of artesian well water and sewage reveals that the transportation occurs also from the groundwater to the lake. The results obtained in plankton in Yeniça?a Lake showed that aluminum, iron, manganese, zinc, and barium were most accumulated elements in the plankton. The lower averages of lead prevalent in the water and sediment during some months were seen to have a significant mean accumulation in the plankton.     

Modeling a Carbon Capture,Transport, and Storage Infrastructure for Europe

In this paper, we develop a model to analyze the economics of carbon capture, transport, and storage (CCTS) in the wake of expected rising CO₂ prices. We present a scalable mixed integer, multiperiod, welfare-optimizing network model for Europe, called CCTS-Mod. The model incorporates endogenous decisions on carbon capture, pipeline and storage investments, as well as capture, flow and injection quantities based on given costs, CO₂ prices, storage capacities, and point source emissions. Given full information about future costs of CCTS-technology, and CO₂ prices, the model determines a cost minimizing strategy on whether to purchase CO₂ certificates, or to abate the CO₂ through investments into a CCTS-chain on a site by site basis. We apply the model to analyze different scenarios for the deployment of CCTS in Europe, e.g., under high and low CO₂ prices, respectively. We find that beyond CO₂ prices of €50 per t, CCTS can contribute to the decarbonization of Europe’s industry sectors, as long as one assumes sufficient storage capacities (onshore and/or offshore). We find that CCTS is only viable for the power sector if the CO₂ certificate price exceeds €75 per t.     

Comparative impacts of stormwater runoff on water quality of an urban, a suburban, and a rural stream

Water quality data at 12 sites within an urban, a suburban, and a rural stream were collected contemporaneously during four wet and eight dry periods. The urban stream yielded the highest biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), orthophosphate, total suspended sediment (TSS), and surfactant concentrations, while the most rural stream yielded the highest total organic carbon concentrations. Percent watershed development and percent impervious surface coverage were strongly correlated with BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), orthophosphate, and surfactant concentrations but negatively with total organic carbon. Excessive fecal coliform abundance most frequently occurred in the most urbanized catchments. Fecal coliform bacteria, TSS, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, and BOD were significantly higher during rain events compared to nonrain periods. Total rainfall preceding sampling was positively correlated with turbidity, TSS, BOD, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria concentrations. Turbidity and TSS were positively correlated with phosphorus, fecal coliform bacteria, BOD, and chlorophyll a, which argues for better sedimentation controls under all landscape types.     

Assessment of multi-contaminant exposure in a cancer treatment center: a 2-year monitoring of molds,mycotoxins, endotoxins,and glucans in bioaerosols

Indoor air quality in health care facilities is a major public health concern, particularly for immunocompromised patients who may be exposed to microbiological contaminants such as molds, mycotoxins, endotoxins, and (1,3)-ß-D-glucans. Over 2 years, bioaerosols were collected on a monthly basis in a cancer treatment center (Centre F. Baclesse, Normandy, France), characterized from areas where there was no any particular air treatment. Results showed the complexity of mycoflora in bioaerosols with more than 100 fungal species identified. A list of major strains in hospital environments could be put forward due to the frequency, the concentration level, and/or the capacity to produce mycotoxins in vitro: Aspergillus fumigatus, Aspergillus melleus, Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus versicolor, Cladosporium herbarum, Purpureocillium lilacinum, and Penicillium brevicompactum. The mean levels of viable airborne fungal particles were less than 30.530 CFU per m³ of air and were correlated to the total number of 0.30 to 20 μm particles. Seasonal variations were observed with fungal particle peaks during the summer and autumn. Statistical analysis showed that airborne fungal particle levels depended on the relative humidity level which could be a useful indicator of fungal contamination. Finally, the exposure to airborne mycotoxins was very low (only 3 positive samples), and no mutagenic activity was found in bioaerosols. Nevertheless, some fungal strains such as Aspergillus versicolor or Penicillium brevicompactum showed toxigenic potential in vitro.     

Evaluation of a real-time monitoring system for river quality — a trade-off between risk attitudes,costs, and uncertainty

Uncertainty is definitely one of the key topics in environmental assessment and management. Typically, attempts to reduce uncertainty are subject to expenses. But how to compare and trade-off expenses and the reduced uncertainty? They only seldom allow the use of a single unit. Instead, the whole analysis and decision procedure is very subjective. This paper presents one approach to handle such problems, namely the combined use of Bayesian influence diagrams, and probabilistic risk attitude analysis. The approach was used in the evaluation of three alternatives for a real time river water quality forecasting system. A trade-off analysis of risk attitudes, costs and uncertainty indicated the levels of socioeconomic utility required for investments in the respective systems, and accordingly illuminated the impact of the uncertainties involved on inference and decision-making with various risk attitudes and discount rates.     

Water and sediment quality of Ashtamudi estuary, a Ramsar site, southwest coast of India—a statistical appraisal

Ashtamudi estuary, situated on the southwest coast of India, is enormously affected by anthropogenic interventions. Physicochemical quality of water and sedimentological features of the estuary are evaluated during monsoon and nonmonsoon seasons to elucidate its quality variations and to link the same with existing environmental scenario. The whole data has been factorized using principal component analysis for extracting the total variability and linear relationships existing among a set of different physicochemical parameters of the backwater system. In PCA, high loadings were obtained for conductivity, salinity, fluoride, calcium, magnesium, sulfate, boron, and pH. The results were revealed that all the physicochemical processes depend upon seasonal fluctuation of freshwater input and seawater intrusion. Wide spatial concentration fluctuations of organic carbon and iron in bottom sediment have been noticed and both constituents reveal good correlation with sediment texture. The results showed high deterioration of the physicochemical quality of water during nonmonsoon season with respect to monsoon season.     

Chemical composition, sources, solubility, and transport of aerosol trace elements in a tropical region

Aerosol particle samples (PM10) were collected at urban, industrial and rural sites located in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between October 2008 and September 2009. Aerosol samples for each site were analyzed for total and soluble metals, water-soluble ions, carboxylic acids, and water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC). The results showed that the mean PM10 concentrations were 34 μg m(-3); 47 μg m(-3) and 71 μg m(-3) at the rural, urban and industrial sites, respectively. An increase in the average concentration of these particles due to air stagnation was observed during the period from May to September for all sites, and an increase in hospitalization for respiratory problems was also reported. On average, the anions species represented 4 to 14% of total content, while cations species corresponded to 1 to 11% and 7.5% for WSOC. The overall metal content at the industrial site was nearly the double that at the rural site. The concentrations of the studied species are influenced mainly by site location and the specific characteristics present at each site. However, higher concentrations of some species were observed on particular dates and were probably due to biomass burning and African dust events. The acid/aqueous percentiles showed that the most efficiently extracted metals from the aqueous phase were V and Ni (40%), while Al and Fe represented a lower percentage (<3%). Analysis of the aqueous fraction provides important information about the bioavailability of metals that is associated with the inflammatory process in the lungs.     

Urban stream syndrome in a small,lightly developed watershed: a statistical analysis of water chemistry parameters,land use patterns,and natural sources

The relationships among land use patterns, geology, soil, and major solute concentrations in stream water for eight tributaries of the Kayaderosseras Creek watershed in Saratoga County, NY, were investigated using Pearson correlation coefficients and multivariate regression analysis. Sub-watersheds corresponding to each sampling site were delineated, and land use patterns were determined for each of the eight sub-watersheds using GIS. Four land use categories (urban development, agriculture, forests, and wetlands) constituted more than 99 % of the land in the sub-watersheds. Eleven water chemistry parameters were highly and positively correlated with each other and urban development. Multivariate regression models indicated urban development was the most powerful predictor for the same eleven parameters (conductivity, TN, TP, NO $_{3}^-$ , Cl^?, HCO $_{3}^-$ , SO $_{4}^{2-}$ , Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺). Adjusted R ² values, ranging from 19 to 91 %, indicated that these models explained an average of 64 % of the variance in these 11 parameters across the samples and 70 % when Mg²⁺ was omitted. The more common R ², ranging from 29 to 92 %, averaged 68 % for these 11 parameters and 72 % when Mg²⁺ was omitted. Water quality improved most with forest coverage in stream watersheds. The strong associations between water quality variables and urban development indicated an urban source for these 11 water quality parameters at all eight sampling sites was likely, suggesting that urban stream syndrome can be detected even on a relatively small scale in a lightly developed area. Possible urban sources of Ca²⁺ and HCO $_{3}^-$ are suggested.     

Certification of the extractable contents of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in a freshwater sediment following a collaboratively tested and optimised three-step sequential extraction procedure

Sequential extraction procedures have been used during the last decades to study and determine trace element mobility in aquatic sediments. However, the results obtained are operationally defined and, therefore, the significance of the analytical results is related to the extraction scheme used. So, there is a need for suitable reference materials for this type of study to enable the validation of the methodologies and to control the quality of the measurements. This paper describes the preparation of a sediment reference material, BCR-701, the homogeneity and stability studies and the analytical work performed for the certification of the extractable contents of some trace elements, following a collaboratively tested and optimised sequential (three-step) extraction procedure. The paper contains all the results and gives the methods used to certify the extractable contents (mass fractions expressed as mg kg-1 on a dry matter basis) of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in all steps. Moreover, indicative values are given for the aqua regia extractable contents of the six elements in the sediment and the residue obtained after sequential extraction.     

Assessing Spatial, Temporal, and Analytical Variation of Groundwater Chemistry in a Large Nuclear Complex, USA

Statistical analyses were applied at the Hanford Site, USA, to assess groundwater contamination problems that included (1) determining local backgrounds to ascertain whether a facility is affecting the groundwater quality and (2) determining a ‘pre-Hanford' groundwater background to allow formulation of background-based cleanup standards. The primary purpose of this paper is to extend the random effects models for (1) assessing the spatial, temporal, and analytical variability of groundwater background measurements; (2) demonstrating that the usual variance estimate s ², which ignores the variance components, is a biased estimator; (3) providing formulas for calculating the amount of bias; and (4) recommending monitoring strategies to reduce the uncertainty in estimating the average background concentrations. A case study is provided. Results indicate that (1) without considering spatial and temporal variability, there is a high probability of false positives, resulting in unnecessary remediation and/or monitoring expenses; (2) the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty in estimating the average background, and enhance the power of the statistical tests in general, is to increase the number of background wells; and (3) background for a specific constituent should be considered as a statistical distribution, not as a single value or threshold. The methods and the related analysis of variance tables discussed in this paper can be used as diagnostic tools in documenting the extent of inherent spatial and/or temporal variation and to help select an appropriate statistical method for testing purposes.     

Synthesis,characterization, and systematic studies of a novel aluminum selective chelating resin

A procedure is detailed for the selective analysis of trace aluminum by flame atomic absorption spectrophotometer coupled with off-line column separation and preconcentration. Chelating resin was synthesized by covalent functionalization of Amberlite XAD-16 by 2-(2-hydroxyphenyl) benzoxazole. The modified resin was characterized using FT-IR spectroscopy, energy dispersive x-ray analysis, elemental analysis, thermogravimetric analysis/differential thermal analysis, and minimum energy run. The optimum sorption was at pH 9?±?0.1 with corresponding t _1/2 of only 7 min. Many competitive anions and cations studied did not interfere at all in the selective determination of Al(III), at the optimized conditions. The resin shows maximum sorption capacity of 21.58 mg g^?1 and can be regenerated up to 75 cycles without any discernible capacity loss. The Langmuir isotherm model provides the better correlation of the experimental data (r ²?=?0.999) in comparison to Freundlich isotherm model, while the Scatchard analysis revealed homogeneous binding sites in the chelating resin. Analytical figures of merit were evaluated by accuracy (standard reference materials and recovery experiment), precision (RSD <5 %), and detection limit (2.8 μg L^?1). The applicability was demonstrated by analysis of trace aluminum in biological, environmental, and food samples.     

Chemical characterization of precipitation at a coastal site in Trombay, Mumbai, India

Precipitation is the best scavenger for the particulates and dissolved gaseous pollutants present in the atmosphere. The chemical composition of precipitation is dominated by a number of in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging processes. The present study is aimed at analyzing the chemical composition of rainwater in the relatively less industrialized part of Mumbai. The pH of rainwater in this region ranges from 4.8 to 6.4. The percentage contributions of ions were calculated and the major contributing ions were calcium (28%), chloride (23%), sodium (18%), sulfate (14%), magnesium (11%), ammonium (4%), potassium (1%), and nitrate (1%). The correlation coefficient is highest for Na and Cl (r ²?=?0.99), giving a clear indication of contribution from sea salt. Sulfate and nitrate ions also show a very good correlation (r ²?=?0.90), which may be due to their coemission from fossil fuel combustion. Acidification caused by these ions is neutralized by Ca, Mg, and NH₄ ions. The neutralization effect due to these ions is validated by calculating the neutralization factor (NF). The NF values are in the order Ca > Mg > NH₄. The major source contributors for the ions in precipitation are sea salt (Na, Cl, and K) and fossil fuel combustion (SO₄ and NO₃). These assumptions are supported by the values of wet-only ratio, enrichment factor, and percent sea salt fraction.     

Natural and anthropogenic enrichments of molybdenum, thorium, and uranium in a complete peat bog profile, Jura Mountains, Switzerland

A core from an ombrotrophic Swiss bog representing 12 370 (14)C years of peat accumulation was evaluated as a possible archive of atmospheric deposition of Mo, Th and U. Calcium, Sr, and Ba were also determined to quantify weathering inputs, Mn to follow possible redox transformations, and Rb to identify plant uptake. Each of these elements was determined using ICP-MS, following digestion in a microwave heated autoclave using 3 ml HNO(3) and 0.1 ml HBF(4). Calcium and Sr clearly identify the thickness of the ombrotrophic zone because they are enriched in the minerogenic zone relative to the concentration of mineral matter. The concentration of Ba, however, is proportional to the concentration of mineral matter in all samples, and is not added to peat column by weathering reactions at the peat-sediment interface. The lowest element concentrations are found during the Holocene climate optimum (5320 to 8030 (14)C year BP) with the following natural background values (n= 18): Mo 0.08 +/- 0.02 microg g(-1), U 0.029 +/- 0.008 microg g(-1), Ba 5.2 +/- 2.6 microg g(-1), Th 0.070 +/- 0.022 microg g(-1) and Rb 0.63 +/- 0.09 microg g(-1). By far the highest concentrations of Ba, Mn, Rb and Th were found during the Younger Dryas cold climate event (10 590 (14)C year BP) when the flux of atmospheric soil dust was at its post-glacial maximum. Molybdenum and U are elevated in concentration throughout the minerogenic zone because of sediment weathering and this masks the atmospheric signal in samples older than ca. 8000 (14)C year BP (ca. 9000 calendar years). Enrichment factors (EF) calculated using Sc as a conservative, lithogenic element shows that minerogenic peats are enriched in Mo up to 18x and U 26x, relative to the natural "background" values. During the two millennia prior to industrialisation, the accumulation rate of atmospheric Mo averaged 0.23 +/- 0.13 microg m(-2) year(-1). With the onset of the Industrial Revolution, Mo accumulation rates rapidly and continuously increased to approximately 10 microg m(-2) year(-1) in the late 1980s. These data suggest that Mo in atmospheric aerosols today is derived predominately from anthropogenic emissions. Uranium does not show the same enrichment pattern which suggests that steel-making rather than coal combustion is the primary source of atmospheric Mo contamination at this site.     

Lead,cadmium, arsenic and zinc in the ecosystem surrounding a lead smelter

A lead smelter has been operating at Belledune in the province of New Brunswick, in eastern Canada, since 1966. This paper presents data on the concentrations of the four primary metals emitted from the smelter — lead, cadmium, arsenic and zinc — which were measured in the terrestrial environment near the smelter and the concentrate transport route. Deposition of these metals to the snowpack and the uptake by grass forage are discussed in relation to non-regulatory guidelines, toxicity and atmospheric emissions. A 1992 snowpack transect survey extending 0.5–40 km northwest, southeast and south of the smelter revealed lead concentrations of 2–3193 ppb, cadmium <0.10–49.7 ppb, arsenic <3.0–72.0 ppb, and zinc 3–401 ppb. Deposition estimates within this zone for lead were between 0.046 and 20.1 kg/ha/yr, cadmium <0.007 and 313 g/ha/yr, arsenic <0.016 and 453 g/ha/yr and zinc 0.020 and 2.52 kg/ha/yr. Concentrations of these metals in the snowpack were highest within 3 km of the smelter and were detectable at greater distances SE of the smelter. Lead was dispersed greater distances from the smelter than cadmium or arsenic. Snowpack samples collected within 5–20 m of the railway contained 140–7270 ppb of lead, 0.4–36.9 ppb of cadmium, <3.0–72.0 ppb of arsenic and 41–13100 ppb of zinc. Grass forage sampled within 0.6–16 km of the smelter contained lead 5–152 ppm, cadmium 0.10–4.1 ppm, and zinc 22–154 ppm. Highest concentrations of lead, cadmium and zinc in grass forage were found were found within 2.2 km of the smelter. Grass forage collected within 10–70 m of the railway contained lead 13–288 ppm, cadmium 0.4–1.3 ppm and zinc 98–831 ppm.     

Multi-objective, decision-based assessment of a water quality monitoring network in a river system

Water quality monitoring network design has historically tended to use experience, intuition and subjective judgement in locating monitoring stations. Better design procedures to optimize monitoring systems need to simultaneously identify significant planning objectives and consider a number of social, economic and environmental constraints. The consideration of multiple objectives may require further decision analysis to determine the preference weights associated with the objectives to aid in the decision-making process. This may require the application of an optimization study to extract such information from decision makers or experts and to evaluate the overall effectiveness of locating strategies. This paper assesses the optimal expansion and relocation strategies of a water quality monitoring network using a two-stage analysis. The first stage focuses on the information retrieval of preference weights with respect to the designated planning objectives. With the aid of a pre-emptive goal programming model, data analysis is applied to obtain the essential information from the questionnaire outputs. The second stage then utilizes a weighted multi-objective optimization approach to search for the optimal locating strategies of the monitoring stations in the river basin. Practical implementation is illustrated by a case study in the Kao-Ping River Basin, south Taiwan.     

Nanotechnology, risk and the environment: a review

Nanotechnologies are already interacting with the environment. Scientists and engineers are manipulating matter at the nanoscale, and these nanoscale processes and products are being used by industry in commercially available products. These products are either applied directly to the environment or end up in the environment through indirect pathways. This review examines the state of current environmental risk assessment of nanotechnologies. Nanotechnology is described generally, then both the possible benefits of nanotechnology and the risks are reviewed in a traditional way. Subsequently, a philosophical criticism of the traditional way of looking at risks is offered.     

Lithogenic, oceanic and anthropogenic sources of atmospheric Sb to a maritime blanket bog, Myrarnar, Faroe Islands

Antimony concentrations were measured in a core collected from Myrarnar, a blanket bog on the Faroe Islands which has been accumulating peat for more than six thousand years. The vertical distribution of Sb indicates that it has been supplied to the peat exclusively from the atmosphere. Despite the proximity to the ocean, the contribution of Sb to the peat from marine aerosols amounts to less than ca. 10% of the natural inputs. Although the peat core contains four notable layers of volcanic ash originating from Iceland, these have not contributed significantly to the Sb inventory. However, the distribution of Sb closely resembles that of Pb, with most of the Sb found in peats dating from the industrial period. Peat samples dating from the Roman Period are not only contaminated with Pb, but also with Sb. Lead is known to be immobile in peat bogs, and in Europe has been derived predominantly from industrial sources for thousands of years. The correlation between Sb and Pb in the peat core from the Faroe Islands supports the hypothesis that Sb is also effectively immobile in peat, and that ombrotrophic bogs are faithful archives of atmospheric Sb deposition. The data presented here also reinforces the view that natural Sb inputs during the past two centuries are dwarfed by industrial inputs, and that human activities have affected the atmospheric Sb cycle to a comparable extent to that of Pb. The natural rate of atmospheric Sb deposition recorded by the peat core (0.33 microg m(-2) year(-1)) is remarkably similar to the value obtained from a Swiss peat bog (Etang de la Gruère) in the samples dating from ca. 6000 to 9000 years ago (0.35 microg m(-2) year(-1)) which suggests that the background rates obtained from the peat cores have broader validity. Consistent with previous work, the data from the Faroe Islands suggests that the natural flux of Sb to the global atmosphere may have been overestimated by a factor of ten, and that the influence of human activities has been underestimated to the same extent.     

Applying a Large,Statewide Database to the Assessment,Stressor Diagnosis,and Restoration of Stream Fish Communities

In this report, predictions of the species that were expected to occur at stream sites were generated and probable stressors to fish species that were predicted to occur but were absent were diagnosed. Predictions were generated based on the hierarchical screening method of Smith and Powell (1971, Am. Mus. Novit. 2458, 1–30), using fish abundance in conjunction with 25 environmental variables at 895 sites. The sites were sampled throughout Maryland and represent the entire range of environmental quality from severely degraded to minimally degraded. Stressor variable values that exceeded tolerance thresholds for species that were expected to occur, but were absent, were considered to be probable stressors. This method was tested for efficacy in stream site assessments and stressor diagnosis using an independent data set. Sites that were classified as degraded according to the IBI and to non-biological criteria had fewer predicted species present compared to minimally influenced sites, indicating that the proportion of predicted species present accurately represents the biological integrity of a stream site. The nine stressors that were applied to the test data set accounted for species absences in 43.7% of degraded sites. Impervious land cover was the most common stressor identified. In addition to assessing stream biological integrity and identifying stressors to fish species, this approach also provides tolerance thresholds for predicted fish species that are useful endpoints necessary to plan effective restoration of fish species in Maryland.     

Effects of geomorphology, habitat, and spatial location on fish assemblages in a watershed in Ohio, USA

In this paper, we evaluate relationships between in-stream habitat, water chemistry, spatial distribution within a predominantly agricultural Midwestern watershed and geomorphic features and fish assemblage attributes and abundances. Our specific objectives were to: (1) identify and quantify key environmental variables at reach and system wide (watershed) scales; and (2) evaluate the relative influence of those environmental factors in structuring and explaining fish assemblage attributes at reach scales to help prioritize stream monitoring efforts and better incorporate all factors that influence aquatic biology in watershed management programs. The original combined data set consisted of 31 variables measured at 32 sites, which was reduced to 9 variables through correlation and linear regression analysis: stream order, percent wooded riparian zone, drainage area, in-stream cover quality, substrate quality, gradient, cross-sectional area, width of the flood prone area, and average substrate size. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and variance partitioning were used to relate environmental variables to fish species abundance and assemblage attributes. Fish assemblages and abundances were explained best by stream size, gradient, substrate size and quality, and percent wooded riparian zone. Further data are needed to investigate why water chemistry variables had insignificant relationships with IBI scores. Results suggest that more quantifiable variables and consideration of spatial location of a stream reach within a watershed system should be standard data incorporated into stream monitoring programs to identify impairments that, while biologically limiting, are not fully captured or elucidated using current bioassessment methods.     

Changes in water level,land use,and hydrological budget in a semi-permanent playa lake,Southwest Spain

Medina playa lake, a Ramsar site in western Andalusia, is a brackish lowland lake of 120 ha with an average depth of 1 m. Water flows into Medina from its 1,748-ha watershed, but the hydrology of the lake has not previously been studied. This paper describes the application of a water budget model on a monthly scale over a 6-year period, based on a conceptual hydrological model, and considers different future scenarios after calibration to improve the understanding of the lake’s hydrological functioning. Climatic variables from a nearby weather station and observational data (water-level evolution) were used to develop the model. Comparison of measured and predicted values demonstrated that each model component provided a reasonable output with a realistic interaction among the components. The model was then used to explore the potential consequences of land-use changes. Irrigation of olive groves would significantly reduce both the hydroperiod (becoming dry 15% of the time) and the average depth of the lake (water level <0.5 m 40% of the time). On the other hand, removal of an artificial overflow would double the average flooded surface area during high-water periods. The simulated water balance demonstrates that the catchment outputs are dominated by lake evaporation and surface outflow from the lake system to a creek. Discrepancies between predicted and observed water levels identify key areas of uncertainty for future empirical research. The study provides an improved basis for future hydrological management of the catchment and demonstrates the wider utility of this methodology in simulating this kind of system. This methodology provides a realistic appraisal of potential land-use management practices on a catchment-wide scale and allows predictions of the consequences of climate change.