Impact of three interactive Texas state regulatory programs to decrease ambient air toxic levels

The Federal Clean Air Act (FCAA) framework envisions a federal-state partnership whereby the development of regulations may be at the federal level or state level with federal oversight. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establishes National Ambient Air Quality Standards to describe “safe” ambient levels of criteria pollutants. For air toxics, the EPA establishes control technology standards for the 187 listed hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) but does not establish ambient standards for HAPs or other air toxics. Thus, states must ensure that ambient concentrations are not at harmful levels. The Texas Clean Air Act authorizes the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), the Texas state environmental agency, to control air pollution and protect public health and welfare. The TCEQ employs three interactive programs to ensure that concentrations of air toxics do not exceed levels of potential health concern (LOCs): air permitting, ambient air monitoring, and the Air Pollutant Watch List (APWL). Comprehensive air permit reviews involve the application of best available control technology for new and modified equipment and ensure that permits protect public health and welfare. Protectiveness may be demonstrated by a number of means, including a demonstration that the predicted ground-level concentrations for the permitted emissions, evaluated on a case-by-case and chemical-by-chemical basis, do not cause or contribute to a LOC. The TCEQ's ambient air monitoring program is extensive and provides data to help assess the potential for adverse effects from all operational equipment in an area. If air toxics are persistently monitored at a LOC, an APWL area is established. The purpose of the APWL is to reduce ambient air toxic concentrations below LOCs by focusing TCEQ resources and heightening awareness. This paper will discuss examples of decreases in air toxic levels in Houston and Corpus Christi, Texas, resulting from the interactive nature of these programs.

Implications: Texas recognized through the collection of ambient monitoring data that additional measures beyond federal regulations must be taken to ensure that public health is protected. Texas integrates comprehensive air permitting, extensive ambient air monitoring, and the Air Pollutant Watch List (APWL) to protect the public from hazardous air toxics. Texas issues air permits that are protective of public health and also assesses ambient air to verify that concentrations remain below levels of concern in heavily industrialized areas. Texas developed the APWL to improve air quality in those areas where monitoring indicates a potential concern. This paper illustrates how Texas engaged its three interactive programs to successfully address elevated air toxic levels in Houston and Corpus Christi.     

Development of Instrumentation for Continuous On-line Monitoring of Non-Methane Organic Carbon in Air Emissions

ABSTRACT

Non-methane organic carbon (NMOC) is a measure of total organic carbon in an air emission, excluding that from methane. Thus, it measures the total amount of carbon, irrespective of the structure and functional groups in the molecule. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Method 25 is used for quantification of NMOC in emission sources and in ambient air. This method involves laboratory analysis of collected air samples and cannot be used for real-time measurements. It is prone to interferences from CO₂, CH₄, and CO, as well as moisture. In this paper, a novel method for continuous, on-line monitoring of NMOC in air emissions and ambient air is presented. Detection limits are at ppb levels, and interference of permanent gases have been eliminated.     

Emissions Variability Processor (EMVAP): Design,evaluation, and application

Emissions of pollutants such as SO₂ and NOx from external combustion sources can vary widely depending on fuel sulfur content, load, and transient conditions such as startup, shutdown, and maintenance/malfunction. While monitoring will automatically reflect variability from both emissions and meteorological influences, dispersion modeling has been typically conducted with a single constant peak emission rate. To respond to the need to account for emissions variability in addressing probabilistic 1-hr ambient air quality standards for SO₂ and NO₂, we have developed a statistical technique, the Emissions Variability Processor (EMVAP), which can account for emissions variability in dispersion modeling through Monte Carlo sampling from a specified frequency distribution of emission rates. Based upon initial AERMOD modeling of from 1 to 5 years of actual meteorological conditions, EMVAP is used as a postprocessor to AERMOD to simulate hundreds or even thousands of years of concentration predictions. This procedure uses emissions varied hourly with a Monte Carlo sampling process that is based upon the user-specified emissions distribution, from which a probabilistic estimate can be obtained of the controlling concentration. EMVAP can also accommodate an advanced Tier 2 NO₂ modeling technique that uses a varying ambient ratio method approach to determine the fraction of total oxides of nitrogen that are in the form of nitrogen dioxide. For the case of the 1-hr National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS, established for SO₂ and NO₂), a “critical value” can be defined as the highest hourly emission rate that would be simulated to satisfy the standard using air dispersion models assuming constant emissions throughout the simulation. The critical value can be used as the starting point for a procedure like EMVAP that evaluates the impact of emissions variability and uses this information to determine an appropriate value to use for a longer term (e.g., 30-day) average emission rate that would still provide protection for the NAAQS under consideration. This paper reports on the design of EMVAP and its evaluation on several field databases that demonstrate that EMVAP produces a suitably modest overestimation of design concentrations. We also provide an example of an EMVAP application that involves a case in which a new emission limitation needs to be considered for a hypothetical emission unit that has infrequent higher-than-normal SO₂ emissions.

ImplicationsEmissions of pollutants from combustion sources can vary widely depending on fuel sulfur content, load, and transient conditions such as startup and shutdown. While monitoring will automatically reflect this variability on measured concentrations, dispersion modeling is typically conducted with a single peak emission rate assumed to occur continuously. To realistically account for emissions variability in addressing probabilistic 1-hr ambient air quality standards for SO₂ and NO₂, the authors have developed a statistical technique, the Emissions Variability Processor (EMVAP), which can account for emissions variability in dispersion modeling through Monte Carlo sampling from a specified frequency distribution of emission rates.     

Long-term monitoring and modeling of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans from municipal solid waste incinerators and surrounding area in northern Taiwan

Municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) have long been the major contributors of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) to ambient air in Taiwan. After stringent MSWI emission standards were introduced in 2001, the long-term continuous monitoring of flue gas and ambient air quality became necessary to ensure the effectiveness of the related control strategies. Three MSWIs and the surrounding ambient air were investigated in the current study for PCDD/F characteristics during 2006 to 2011. The average concentrations in the flue gas ranged from 0.008?~?0.0488 ng I-TEQ/Nm³, which is much less than the emission standard in Taiwan (0.1 ng I-TEQ/Nm³) (I-TEQ is the abbreviation of International Toxic Equivalent). This led to extremely low levels in the ambient air, 0.0255 pg I-TEQ/Nm³, much less than the levels seen in most urban areas around the world. Additionally, the results obtained using the Industrial Source Complex Short-Term Dispersion Model (ISCST3) indicate that the PCDD/F contributions from the three MSWIs to the ambient air were only in the range from 0.164?~?0.723 %. Principal component analysis (PCA) showed that the PCDD/Fs in the air samples had very similar characteristics to those from mobile sources. The results thus show that stringent regulations have been an effective control strategy, especially for urban areas, such as Taipei City.     

Screening Models for Estimating Toxic Air Pollution Near a Hazardous Waste Landfill

This paper is directed to environmental scientists concerned with assessing toxic air pollution downwind of hazardous waste landfills to determine whether potential health threats or exceedances of air quality standards exist. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of four air quality screening models.

The emission rate of vinyl chloride from the BKK co-disposal landfill in West Covina, California is estimated. Ambient vinyl chloride concentrations are estimated using a ground level point source model, two virtual point source models, arid the simple box model with meteorological and landfill input data representative of periods when ambient monitoring was conducted. The two virtual point source models are most precise and accurate in estimating 24-hour vinyl chloride concentrations. However, the results could include compensating errors in the emission rate and dispersion calculations because the emission rate estimate could not be independently evaluated.     

Improving Urban Air Quality in China: Beijing Case Study

Abstract

China is undergoing rapid urbanization because of unprecedented economic growth. As a result, many cities suffer from air pollution. Two-thirds of China’s cities have not attained the ambient air quality standards applicable to urban residential areas (Grade II). Particulate matter (PM), rather than sulfur dioxide (SO₂), is the major pollutant reflecting the shift from coal burning to mixed source pollution. In 2002, 63.2 and 22.4% of the monitored cities have PM and SO₂ concentrations exceeding the Grade II standard, respectively. Nitrogen oxides (NO_x) concentration kept a relatively stable level near the Grade II standard in the last decade and had an increasing potential in recent years because of the rapid motorization. In general, the air pollutants emission did not increase as quickly as the economic growth and energy consumption, and air quality in Chinese cities has improved to some extent. Beijing, a typical representative of rapidly developing cities, is an example to illustrate the possible options for urban air pollution control. Beijing’s case provides hope that the challenges associated with improving air quality can be met during a period of explosive development and motorization.     

Characterization of Particulate Matter in California

ABSTRACT

The size, composition, and concentration of particulate matter (PM) vary with location and time. Several monitoring/sampling programs are operated in California to characterize PM less than 2.5 and 10 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀). This paper presents a broad summary of the spatial and temporal variations observed in ambient PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations in California. Many areas that have high PM₁₀ concentrations also have relatively high PM_2.5 concentrations, and data indicate that a significant portion of the PM₁₀ air quality problem is caused by PM_2.5. To develop effective plans for attaining the ambient PM standards, improved understanding of these unique problems is needed. Since 1989, pollution control efforts—whether specifically targeted for particulate matter or indirectly via controls on gaseous emissions—have caused annual average PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations to decline at most sites in California.     

Ambient Air Quality and Automotive Emission Control

This paper is concerned with uncertainties involved in projecting ambient air quality. Ambient air quality was projected by assuming a linear dependence on estimated future emissions. Future automotive emissions were estimated by a method recommended by EPA. Projections were made for the locations reported to have the highest ambient air concentrations of each pollutant; Chicago for carbon monoxide and the California South Coast Air Basin for hydrocarbon and oxidant. The sensitivity of the projections to several input parameters was determined.

The uncertainty in projection of air quality due to the use of a maximum, once-per-year concentration is large. For example, the reduction in total CO emissions in Chicago in 1975, necessary to meet the air quality standard, was as high as 68% or as low as 26%, depending on whether the historic high, 8 hr average concentration of 44 ppm or the 1970 maximum of 21 ppm was used. The effects of uncertainties in growth rates and fraction of emissions attributed to the automobile were also sizeable. Differences in automotive growth rate had a large near-term effect on projected concentrations, while differences in nonautomotive growth rate or fraction of emissions attributed to the automobile had a large long-term effect. The effect of 1975 interim automotive emission standards on projected air quality was negligible when compared with projected air quality based on the previous Federal automotive emission standards for 1975.     

The state of ambient air quality in Pakistan—a review

Background and purpose  

Pakistan, during the last decade, has seen an extensive escalation in population growth, urbanization, and industrialization, together with a great increase in motorization and energy use. As a result, a substantial rise has taken place in the types and number of emission sources of various air pollutants. However, due to the lack of air quality management capabilities, the country is suffering from deterioration of air quality. Evidence from various governmental organizations and international bodies has indicated that air pollution is a significant risk to the environment, quality of life, and health of the population. The Government has taken positive steps toward air quality management in the form of the Pakistan Clean Air Program and has recently established a small number of continuous monitoring stations. However, ambient air quality standards have not yet been established. This paper reviews the data being available on the criteria air pollutants: particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide, ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and lead.     

Sampling Frequency Guidance for Ambient Air Toxics Monitoring

Abstract

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is in the process of designing a national network to monitor hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), also known as air toxics. The purposes of the expanded monitoring are to (1) characterize ambient concentrations in representative areas; (2) provide data to support and evaluate dispersion and receptor models; and (3) establish trends and evaluate the effectiveness of HAP emission reduction strategies. Existing air toxics data, in the form of an archive compiled by EPA’s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS), are used in this paper to examine the relationship between estimated annual average (AA) HAP concentrations and their associated variability. The goal is to assess the accuracy, or bias and precision, with which the AA can be estimated as a function of ambient concentration levels and sampling frequency. The results suggest that, for several air toxics, a sampling schedule of 1 in 3 days (1:3) or 1:6 days may be appropriate for meeting some of the general objectives of the national network, with the more intense sampling rate being recommended for areas expected to exhibit relatively high ambient levels.     

Patterns and Concentrations of PM10 in a Mountainous Basin Region

ABSTRACT

In this study, continuous data of PM₁₀ (particles with aerodynamic diameter <10 u,m) concentration measurements for a 4-yr period were analyzed. These measurements have been carried out in the Eordea Basin, an industrial area in the northwestern mountainous region of Greece. The annual, monthly, and diurnal patterns are presented and investigated regarding the prevailing meteorological conditions and atmospheric processes that affect the ambient concentrations of PM₁₀. The effect of wind on controlling PM₁₀ concentration is also discussed. Based on the data analysis, an attempt is made to provide useful information about air quality levels, taking into account U.S. Environmental Protection Agency air quality standards.     

Air pollution and health studies in China--policy implications

During the rapid economic development in China, ambient air pollutants in major cities, including PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or =10 microm) and SO2 have been reduced due to various measures taken to reduce or control sources of emissions, whereas NO2 is stable or slightly increased. However, air pollution levels in China are still at the higher end of the world level. Less information is available regarding changes in national levels of other pollutants such as PM2.5 and ozone. The Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection (MOEP) set an index for "controlling/reducing total SO2 emissions" to evaluate the efficacy of air pollution control strategy in the country. Total SO2 emissions declined for the first time in 2007. Chinese epidemiologic studies evidenced adverse health effects of ambient air pollution similar to those reported from developed countries, though risk estimates on mortality/morbidity per unit increase of air pollutant are somewhat smaller than those reported in developed countries. Disease burden on health attributable to air pollution is relatively greater in China because of higher pollution levels. Improving ambient air quality has substantial and measurable public health benefits in China. It is recommended that the current Chinese air quality standards be updated/revised and the target for "controlling/reducing total SO2 emissions" be maintained and another target for "reducing total NO2 emissions" be added in view of rapid increase in motor vehicles. Continuous and persistent efforts should be taken to improve ambient air quality.     

NO2 and SO2dispersion modeling and relative roles of emission sources over Map Ta Phut industrial area,Thailand

Map Ta Phut industrial area (MA) is the largest industrial complex in Thailand. There has been concern about many air pollutants over this area. Air quality management for the area is known to be difficult, due to lack of understanding of how emissions from different sources or sectors (e.g., industrial, power plant, transportation, and residential) contribute to air quality degradation in the area. In this study, a dispersion study of NO₂ and SO₂ was conducted using the AERMOD model. The area-specific emission inventories of NO_x and SO₂ were prepared, including both stack and nonstack sources, and divided into 11 emission groups. Annual simulations were performed for the year 2006. Modeled concentrations were evaluated with observations. Underestimation of both pollutants was found, and stack emission estimates were scaled to improve the modeled results before quantifying relative roles of individual emission groups to ambient concentration over four selected impacted areas (two are residential and the others are highly industrialized). Two concentration measures (i.e., annual average area-wide concentration or AC, and area-wide robust highest concentration or AR) were used to aggregately represent mean and high-end concentrations for each individual area, respectively. For AC-NO₂, on-road mobile emissions were found to be the largest contributor in the two residential areas (36–38% of total AC-NO₂), while petrochemical-industry emissions play the most important role in the two industrialized areas (34–51%). For AR-NO₂, biomass burning has the most influence in all impacted areas (>90%) except for one residential area where on-road mobile is the largest (75%). For AC-SO₂, the petrochemical industry contributes most in all impacted areas (38–56%). For AR-SO₂, the results vary. Since the petrochemical industry was often identified as the major contributor despite not being the largest emitter, air quality workers should pay special attention to this emission group when managing air quality for the MA.

Implications: Effective air quality management in Map Ta Phut Industrial Area, Thailand requires better understanding of how emissions from various sources contribute to the degradation of ambient air quality. Based on the dispersion study here, petrochemical industry was generally identified as the major contributor to ambient NO₂ and SO₂. By accounting for all stack and non-stack sources, on-road mobile emissions were found to be important in some particular areas.     

Air Emission Inventories in North America: A Critical Assessment

Abstract

Although emission inventories are the foundation of air quality management and have supported substantial improvements in North American air quality, they have a number of shortcomings that can potentially lead to ineffective air quality management strategies. Major reductions in the largest emissions sources have made accurate inventories of previously minor sources much more important to the understanding and improvement of local air quality. Changes in manufacturing processes, industry types, vehicle technologies, and metropolitan infrastructure are occurring at an increasingly rapid pace, emphasizing the importance of inventories that reflect current conditions. New technologies for measuring source emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations, both at the point of emissions and from remote platforms, are providing novel approaches to collecting data for inventory developers. Advances in information technologies are allowing data to be shared more quickly, more easily, and processed and compared in novel ways that can speed the development of emission inventories. Approaches to improving quantitative measures of inventory uncertainty allow air quality management decisions to take into account the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, providing more accurate projections of how well alternative strategies may work. This paper discusses applications of these technologies and techniques to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and completeness of emission inventories across North America and outlines a series of eight recommendations aimed at inventory developers and air quality management decision-makers to improve emission inventories and enable them to support effective air quality management decisions for the foreseeable future.     

Designing Optimal Strategies to Attain the New U.S. Particulate Matter Standards: Some Initial Concepts

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes that a fundamental principle for designing optimal strategies to attain new U.S. particulate matter (PM) standards be minimization of community and susceptible group exposure to, and inhaled dosage of, ambient PM. Properly done, such minimization maximizes human health risk reduction. To illustrate implementation of such a principle, an initial prototype model, PM Exposure (PMEX), is described that calculates PM exposure and inhaled dosage as figures-of-merit for control strategy optimization. The model accounts for age-occupation and susceptible group activity patterns, indoor-outdoor concentration differences, and geographical location. Modeling results are presented for a hypothetical example, apportioning inhaled dosage among different classes of sources, under alternative assumptions about the relative potency of different PM species categories. The results, while preliminary, demonstrate that conclusions about source class contribution based on inhaled dosage can be appreciably different than those based on ambient air measurements or emission inventories.     

Needed: A National R&D Effort To Develop Individual Air Pollution Monitor Instrumentation

The results from the regional air quality analysis for the Four Corners Study are discussed in this paper. This study was one of five regional studies conducted for the National Commission on Air Quality. Potential regional air quality impacts were evaluated through the year 1995 for alternative energy scenarios under current and alternative regulatory policies. The alternative regulatory policies include emission fees, technology standards, emission ceilings, and prevention of significant deterioration class elimination. The alternatives were compared in terms of their impacts on regional visibility and on the ambient concentrations of SO₂, SO₄, and primary fine particulates. The fate of the pollutants was estimated. The alternative regulatory policies were quite different with respect to their control of SO_X emissions and their impacts on regional visibility. Sources located outside of the study region were estimated to have a major impact on regional air quality within the study region.     

A Method for Using Air Pollution Measurements and Public Opinion to Establish Ambient Air Quality Standards

Air quality was comprehensively evaluated by means of sampling at 21 locations over metropolitan Birmingham during a period of one year. Thousands of integrated samples of three common atmospheric gaseous pollutants and two common particulate pollutants were collected and analyzed. Following the year of sampling in 1964, a random household survey was completed by conducting personal interviews at more than 7200 households over metropolitan Birmingham. Statistical reduction of household survey results by census tract and by neighborhood area provided domestic fuel and waste burning emission data as well as public (resident) opinion on specific air pollution effects. The relationship between ambient air quality and neighborhood opinion of air pollution effects on health and property are evaluated statistically. Ambient standards are suggested which are based upon those air pollution levels shown to have adverse effects on approximately one-third of the people.     

Evaluation of air quality zone classification methods based on ambient air concentration exposure

Air quality zones are used by regulatory authorities to implement ambient air standards in order to protect human health. Air quality measurements at discrete air monitoring stations are critical tools to determine whether an air quality zone complies with local air quality standards or is noncompliant. This study presents a novel approach for evaluation of air quality zone classification methods by breaking the concentration distribution of a pollutant measured at an air monitoring station into compliance and exceedance probability density functions (PDFs) and then using Monte Carlo analysis with the Central Limit Theorem to estimate long-term exposure. The purpose of this paper is to compare the risk associated with selecting one ambient air classification approach over another by testing the possible exposure an individual living within a zone may face. The chronic daily intake (CDI) is utilized to compare different pollutant exposures over the classification duration of 3 years between two classification methods. Historical data collected from air monitoring stations in Kuwait are used to build representative models of 1-hr NO₂ and 8-hr O₃ within a zone that meets the compliance requirements of each method. The first method, the “3 Strike” method, is a conservative approach based on a winner-take-all approach common with most compliance classification methods, while the second, the 99% Rule method, allows for more robust analyses and incorporates long-term trends. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to model the CDI for each pollutant and each method with the zone at a single station and with multiple stations. The model assumes that the zone is already in compliance with air quality standards over the 3 years under the different classification methodologies. The model shows that while the CDI of the two methods differs by 2.7% over the exposure period for the single station case, the large number of samples taken over the duration period impacts the sensitivity of the statistical tests, causing the null hypothesis to fail. Local air quality managers can use either methodology to classify the compliance of an air zone, but must accept that the 99% Rule method may cause exposures that are statistically more significant than the 3 Strike method.

Implications: A novel method using the Central Limit Theorem and Monte Carlo analysis is used to directly compare different air standard compliance classification methods by estimating the chronic daily intake of pollutants. This method allows air quality managers to rapidly see how individual classification methods may impact individual population groups, as well as to evaluate different pollutants based on dosage and exposure when complete health impacts are not known.     

Near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares

Large petrochemical flares, common in the Houston Ship Channel (the Ship Channel) and other industrialized areas in the Gulf of Mexico region, emit hundreds to thousands of pounds per hour of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). We employed fine horizontal resolution (200 m?×?200 m) in a three-dimensional (3D) Eulerian chemical transport model to simulate two historical Ship Channel flares. The model reasonably reproduced the observed ozone rise at the nearest monitoring stations downwind of the flares. The larger of the two flares had an olefin emission rate exceeding 1400 lb/hr. In this case, the model simulated a rate of increase in peak ozone greater than 40 ppb/hr over a 12 km?×?12 km horizontal domain without any unusual meteorological conditions. In this larger flare, formaldehyde emissions typically neglected in official inventories enhanced peak ozone by as much as 16 ppb and contributed over 10 ppb to ambient formaldehyde up to ～8 km downwind of the flare. The intense horizontal gradients in large flare plumes cannot be simulated by coarse models typically used to demonstrate ozone attainment. Moreover, even the relatively dense monitoring network in the Ship Channel may not be able to detect many transient high ozone events (THOEs) caused by industrial flare emissions in the absence of stagnant air recirculation or stalled sea breeze fronts, even though such conditions are unnecessary for the occurrence of THOEs.

Implications: Flare minimization may be an important strategy to attain the U.S. federal ozone standard in industrialized areas, and to avoid inordinate exposure to formaldehyde in neighborhoods surrounding petrochemical facilities. Moreover, air quality monitoring networks, emission inventories, and chemical transport models with higher spatial and temporal resolution and more refined speciation of HRVOCs are needed to better account for the near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares.     

Weekday vs. Weekend Ambient Ozone Concentrations: Discussion and Hypotheses with Focus on Northern California

Abstract

Since the early 1970s, researchers and data analysts have reported differences between weekday and weekend ozone concentrations, with higher ozone concentrations occurring on Sundays in some locations. At that time, the phenomenon was referred to as the “Sunday effect.” In the late 1980s, additional papers focused on weekday/weekend differences in air quality in the South Coast (Los Angeles) Air Basin.

Analyses of ozone concentrations measured at a number of locations in northern California reveal that average ozone concentrations are frequently higher on weekends than on weekdays. Violations of the California 0.09 ppm 1-hour air quality standard for ozone also occur in disproportionately greater frequency on weekends. We hypothesize that this phenomenon is based largely on the differences between weekday and weekend emission patterns. We believe that the observed differences may provide information regarding which pollutant reduction strategy, NO_x or ROG control, may be more effective in reducing ambient ozone concentrations. For the northern California region, the presence of higher weekend ozone concentrations suggests the need for ROG control is greater than for NO_x control. If both NO_x and ROG are to be controlled, it is important to understand the interdependence of the two pollutants in forming ozone. With the current uncertainty and debate regarding official vehicular emission inventories, this phenomenon emphasizes the importance of using observation-based data to examine ambient pollution and emission relationships. This natural experiment of varying emissions provides an interesting test case for sophisticated air pollution model performance and evaluation.

Using a Bay Area emission inventory and an estimate of its change from weekday to weekend, combined with a generic Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA) diagram, we demonstrate the weekend effect. In addition, changes in the Bay Area emission inventory from 1980 to 1990, when combined with the EKMA diagram, also show why the weekend effect is more evident in the 1990s.

It is our hypothesis that the presence of the weekend effect, positive or negative, combined with changes in emission changes, provides a simple clue to whether an area is NO_xor ROG limited with respect to ozone formation.