Second-trimester prenatal screening markers for Down syndrome in women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus

Published studies have shown that some serum markers used in screening for Down syndrome tend to be lower among women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM). On this basis, many screening programmes adjust the marker levels to take account of this difference. Recent studies suggested that the marker levels were not different, and so adjustment may no longer be needed, possibly because of better diabetic control. Data from a prenatal screening programme for Down syndrome were examined to see whether the median values of second-trimester screening markers were still reduced in pregnant women with IDDM. A total of 366 women with IDDM singleton pregnancies without Down syndrome were identified from the screening programme at Barts from 1989 to 2002. After allowing for maternal weight, the median multiples of the median (MoM) for IDDM-unaffected singleton pregnancies were as follows: 0.88 (95% confidence interval 0.84–0.93) for alphafetoprotein (AFP), 0.95 (0.91–0.99) for unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), 0.90 (0.80–1.01) for total human chorionic gonadotrophin (total hCG), 0.98 (0.88–1.08) for free β-hCG, and 0.99 (0.89–1.10) for inhibin-A. The median levels for AFP and uE₃ were statistically significantly lower in pregnant women with IDDM. The other markers were not significantly different in women with and without IDDM. There remains a case for adjusting AFP and uE₃ levels in women with IDDM in prenatal screening programmes for Down syndrome. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First-trimester maternal serum biochemical indicators in Down syndrome

A set of 21 early maternal serum samples (19 first-trimester and two at 14 weeks) from pregnancies resulting in a child with Down syndrome was matched for gestation and length of storage with 63 samples from unaffected pregnancies. The concentrations of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), pregnancy-specific β₁–glycoprotein (SP₁), and placental alkaline phosphatase (PALP) were measured. The ratios of the medians for Down syndrome pregnancies compared with the medians for controls were AFP 0·71, uE₃ 0·67, hCG 1·43, SP₁ 0·79, and PALP 0·92. Although the differences between the medians for affected and unaffected pregnancies were not significant, the trends for AFP, uE₃, and hCG confirm earlier findings on first-trimester samples.     

Four-marker serum screening for Down's syndrome

The value of measuring the separate sub-units of human chorionic gonadotrophin (free α-hCG and free β-hCG) instead of total hCG together with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) was examined to determine the effect on the performance of serum screening for Down's syndrome between 15 and 22 weeks of pregnancy. The study was based on stored serum samples relating to 75 singleton pregnancies with fetal Down's syndrome and 367 unaffected singleton pregnancies, matched for maternal age, gestational age, and duration of storage of the serum sample, supplemented by data from 970 white women with unaffected pregnancies. Using the four serum markers AFP, uE₃, free β-hCG, and free α-hCG, in addition to maternal age, 65 per cent of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected for a 5 per cent false-positive rate compared with 59 per cent with the conventional triple test (AFP, uE₃, total hCG with maternal age). If gestation was based on an ultrasound scan examination, the detection rate was 72 per cent using the four serum markers compared with 67 per cent with the triple test. As an alternative illustration, if the detection rate was kept at 60 per cent and gestation was estimated by an ultrasound scan examination the four-marker test reduced the false-positive rate by one-third from 3 per cent using the triple test to 2 per cent with the four-marker test. Screening performance was hardly affected by adjusting marker levels for maternal weight. The four-marker test is, both from a medical and from a financial perspective, the most effective method of prenatal screening for Down's syndrome suitable for routine use.     

Expanding multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome to include Edward'S syndrome

Information on maternal age and maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels was used to investigate retrospectively the effect of estimating Edward's syndrome risk in women having multi-marker screening for Down's syndrome. The screened population comprised 15 pregnancies affected by Edward's syndrome, 15 with Down's syndrome and 5472 unaffected pregnancies. The use of all three markers to estimate Edward's syndrome risk would have led to the detection of 10–12 (67–80 per cent) cases with a false-positive rate of 0.3–0.6 per cent depending on the risk cut-off. A further case would have been detected as a result of screening for Down's syndrome alone. Similar results were obtained when the Edward's syndrome risk was based on uE₃ and hCG only. These data suggest that extending Down's syndrome screening to include Edward's syndrome risk will yield a high detection rate with only a small increase in the false-positive rate.     

Improved parameters for risk estimation in Down's syndrome screening

A new method is described for calculating maternal serum marker distribution parameters which will improve risk estimation when screening for Down's syndrome. The approach is to calculate parameters using data from the local screened population and data obtained by meta-analysis from all published studies. The local data are used to derive the variance and covariance in unaffected pregnancies. The meta-analysis is used for the mean level in Down's syndrome pregnancies together with the differences in variance and covariance between affected and unaffected pregnancies. Forty-four published studies were analysed. The mean level for Down's syndrome in multiples of the normal median was 0·73 for alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in total of 1140 pregnancies, 0·73 for unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) in 613, 2·02 for human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) in 850, and 2·30 for free β-hCG in 477. For all four markers, the variance in Down's syndrome was higher than in unaffected pregnancies; for AFP and uE₃, the covariances were also higher in Down's syndrome, but for the other markers they were lower. The method was illustrated using data from 6387 pregnancies screened in Leeds.     

Maternal serum free beta hCG screening: Results of studies including 480 cases of down syndrome

The median maternal serum free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) multiple of the median (MOM) of 480 Down syndrome cases in the second trimester was 2·64, significantly greater than the reported median MOM of intact hCG (p<0·0001). In 234 of these cases from retrospective and prospective studies, the effectiveness of maternal serum free beta hCG was evaluated in combination with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and maternal age in second-trimester Down syndrome screening. Down syndrome detection in the gestational age range of 14–16 weeks was 82 per cent. In all gestational weeks (14–22), a 77·7 per cent Down syndrome detection rate was achieved. In prospective screening of 44 272 patients under the age of 35 years, 69 per cent of Down syndrome cases were detected (73 per cent in gestational weeks 14–16). The false-positive rate for the prospective study was 3·8 per cent. The use of free beta hCG combined with maternal serum AFP and maternal age-related risk for Down syndrome in a screening population (i.e., women under 35 years) yields an improved detection efficiency over other protocols.     

Repeat maternal serum testing for down's syndrome screening using multiple markers with special reference to free α and free β-hCG

To determine the effect of routine repeat testing in serum screening for Down's syndrome, we compared estimates of the detection and false-positive rates. Five serum markers were measured-alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), and its two subunits, free α and free β-hCG. First and repeat test marker levels were available from 142 women whose samples had been routinely collected and stored in an antenatal serum bank. Different repeat testing policies were compared for various combinations of the markers. If all women had repeat tests using the four markers AFP, uE₃, and free α and free β-hCG, the detection rate for a 5 per cent false-positive rate was 69 per cent compared with 65 per cent if no women were repeated. Policies of repeating selected women gave similar results. The small gain in screening performance with repeat testing performed routinely is not worthwhile. If a woman does happen to have a repeat test, her risk estimate should, however, be based on both results, not just the second.     

Accuracy of Down syndrome risks produced in a first-trimester screening programme incorporating fetal nuchal translucency thickness and maternal serum biochemistry

Over the past three years approximately 12 000 women have been screened in the first trimester through our OSCAR programme, which utilizes fetal NT and maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A. During this time 30 cases of Down syndrome were identified either prenatally or postnatally. Using an established procedure the accuracy of predicted risk for Down syndrome was assessed in a population of 30 cases of Down syndrome and 11 758 unaffected pregnancies. The correlation between predicted risk and prevalence of Down syndrome was very high (r=0.9995). It is concluded that risks produced by the Fetal Medicine Foundation combined risk algorithm agree very closely with Down syndrome prevalence and can be used with confidence when counselling women of their risk. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Second-trimester maternal serum screening using alpha-fetoprotein,human chorionic gonadotrophin,and unconjugated oestriol: Experience of a regional programme

Over a 2-year period from January 1991 to December 1992, second-trimester maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome using alpha-fetoprotein (aFP), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) was made available to five health districts in East Anglia, with a total population of 1·2 million. Amniocentesis was offered when the risk of Down's syndrome at term was 1:200 or greater. 25359 singleton pregnancies were screened, representing an uptake of 77 per cent. The recall rate for the 24 per cent of women who had not had a dating scan prior to the test was 9·4 per cent compared with 3·9 per cent for those who had been scanned (P<0·0005). Seventy-five per cent (36/48) of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected for a false-positive rate of 4·0 per cent. Twenty-five out of 36 of detected Down's syndrome pregnancies were dated by scan prior to sampling, and in the 11 remaining cases, the dates were confirmed by scan after a high-risk result was obtained. The exclusion of uE₃ from the screening protocol would have reduced the detection rate to 52 per cent (25/48) for the same false-positive rate. Eighty-five per cent of women identified at high risk accepted the offer of an amniocentesis. Other fetal abnormalities detected were trisomy 18 (3), trisomy 13 (2), 45,X (6), 69,XXX (5), other chromosome abnormalities (9), open neural tube defects (26), hydrocephalus (7), abdominal wall defects (4), and steroid sulphatase deficiency (6).     

Maternal serum markers in second-trimester oligohydramnios

The levels of the maternal serum markers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) in 35 pregnant women with early second-trimester oligohydramnios differed from those in a reference population of 1699 singleton pregnancies. Maternal serum AFP levels above the 95th centile of the population distribution were observed in 80 per cent (16/20) of oligohydramnios cases with a normal fetus and in only 20 per cent (3/15) of the cases with a fetus displaying urogenital tract malformations. Elevated levels of hCG (above the 95th centile) and decreased levels of uE₃ (below the fifth centile) were encountered in 26 per cent (9/35) and 17 per cent (6/35) of the women, irrespective of the fetal condition. The abnormal profile of the serum markers in early second-trimester oligohydramnios resulted in 57 per cent (20 out of 35) of screen-positive cases for either fetal Down's syndrome or neural tube defects, compared with 8·4 per cent (143 out of 1699) in the reference population.     

Increased maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotropin in compromised pregnancies other than for neural tube defects or Down syndrome

Intrauterine fetal death occurred in four women who were ‘screen-positive’ in a screening programme for neural tube defects (NTDs) and Down syndrome (DS). These women had very high levels of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) and maternal serum human chorionic gonadotropin (MShCG). Therefore, we evaluated all ‘screen-positive’ women in whom both of these markers were ⩾ 2.0 multiples of the median. The cases fulfilling these criteria totalled 11, and only one of them had no complications. High concentrations of both MSAFP and MShCG in a number of these cases might have been caused by an increased placental volume, which, in turn, might have been induced by decreased perfusion of the placenta. We conclude that screening programmes wrongly determine a high risk of fetal NTD or DS if the concentrations of both these parameters are very high. Invasive diagnostic procedures should be avoided in these cases, particularly in view of the increased risk of an adverse pregnancy outcome.     

Repeat maternal serum testing in multiple marker down's syndrome screening programmes

The effect of repeat testing in maternal serum multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome was estimated using samples stored in an antenatal serum bank. Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) levels were determined in 142 pairs of routinely collected samples which had already been tested for alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). For each marker, about two-thirds of the pairs of values were within 20 per cent of each other and most were within 40 per cent. A multivariate Gaussian model was used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates for different repeat testing policies. A policy of repeat testing those with a high risk of a Down's syndrome term pregnancy given age and marker levels would reduce the false-positive rate but there would also be a reduction in the detection rate. For example, using all three markers and a 1 in 250 cut-off risk, the estimated false-positive rate would fall from 5·3 to 3·8 per cent but the detection rate would decrease from 58 to 55 per cent. A policy of repeating those with either high or borderline risks would produce a modest improvement in screening efficiency. Repeating the 11 per cent with a risk exceeding 1 in 500 yields an estimated false-positive rate of 5·0 per cent and a detection rate of 60 per cent. A policy of selective repeat testing is not recommended as it would not substantially improve screening efficiency. Nonetheless, if a repeat test has been performed, the parameters given in this paper will enable an unbiased estimate of the Down's syndrome risk to be calculated for individual women.     

Multiple marker screen positivity in the presence of hydrops fetalis

Three cases of hydrops fetalis presented in the second trimester as screen-positive for Down syndrome using multiple maternal serum markers. One case was a karyotypically normal female; one case was a monosomy X (Turner syndrome); and one case was a trisomy 21 (Down syndrome). In each case, the maternal serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) was disproportionately elevated. These cases support the contention that hydrops fetalis of any aetiology may present as screen-positive when using multiple maternal serum markers for Down syndrome. Further cases will be necessary before it can be determined whether a disproportionately elevated hCG is predictive of hydrops.     

Economic assessment of maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome using human chorionic gonadotropin

The effectiveness and costs of prenatal screening programmes for Down's syndrome using maternal serum markers will vary significantly depending on the biological cut-off values chosen in order to select women, at each maternal age, who will be sent for amniocentesis. On the basis of the first French prospective study of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurement in maternal serum, this paper shows that the screening protocol currently used in France, where hCG cut-off values are defined in order to offer amniocentesis to women of all ages with a 1 percent fetal risk of Down's syndrome, would detect 64·06 per cent of all cases of trisomy 21 at birth and would be highly profitable for the French social security system. On the basis of a representative sample of 100 000 pregnant women, the total costs of screening would reach $8 302 000 but would generate net potential savings of $32 186 000 in terms of life-long costs of care for trisomic 21 children which would be ‘avoided’ by termination of pregnancy following a positive diagnosis of Down's syndrome. Economic assessment shows that cost-benefit analysis would justify lower hCG cut-off values and a higher detection rate of fetal Down's syndrome (74·45 per cent) than the current French protocol. This paper concludes that it is ethical and value-laden issues, such as the consequences for women and couples of false positives and false negatives of screening, rather than economic and financial arguments that may set limits to the utilization of screening for Down's syndrome using maternal serum markers like hCG.     

Serum PAPP-A levels are depressed in women with fetal Down syndrome in early pregnancy

The value of maternal serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein (PAPP)-A in screening for Down syndrome in early pregnancy was assessed using stored samples. Seventeen cases of Down syndrome and 66 unaffected control pregnancies were studied. The median PAPP-A level in the cases was 0.42 multiples of the expected value in controls (p <0.0001). Eleven cases (65 per cent) had levels less than half the expected value compared with only six controls (9 per cent). A commercial assay kit is now needed so that prospective screening with this marker can begin.     

Reside0ntial solar water heating as a potential Clean Development Mechanism project: A South African case study

A community-based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project – asolar water heating project in a low-income community in South Africa –is analysed to illustrate the methodological and policy challenges that faceimplementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. We evaluate four baseline options, andthree potential CDM interventions. The emissions reductions range from –670 to +5 929 Mg CO₂ per year, with all option but oneshowing positive emission reductions. Using metered solar water heatingwith liquefied petroleum gas back-up as the CDM intervention, and electricstorage geysers as the baseline, the annual emissions reductions are 5686 Mg CO₂. The cost-effectiveness from the national perspective,which is the incremental life cycle costs divided by the lifetime emissionsreductions, is –$18 per Mg CO₂ From the perspective of theCDM investor, however, the cost-effectiveness is $5.2 per mgCO₂, assuming that the investor receives all of the carbon credits forproviding the incremental capital investment. From our analysis, weconclude that using the current technology (kerosene stoves) as a baselineis probably not appropriate because it does not reflect likely future trendsand also penalises the community for their poverty and current lack ofinfrastructure. We also highlight the importance of credit sharing, and howit affects the cost-effectiveness of the project from the CDM investor'sperspective. The lessons from this analysis are important for the currentinternational policy debate on how to preferentially treat small-scale CDMprojects.     

Maternal serum hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotrophin (HhCG) in the first trimester of pregnancies affected by Down syndrome,using a sialic acid-specific lectin immunoassay

In a series of 54 cases of pregnancies complicated by Down syndrome and 224 unaffected pregnancies we examined maternal serum levels of hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotrophin (HhCG) in samples collected in the first trimester (11–13 weeks) using a sialic acid-specific lectin immunoassay. We compared these levels with those of other potential first trimester serum markers [free β-hCG, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and total hCG (ThCG)] and modeled detection rates and false-positive rates of various biochemical markers in conjunction with fetal nuchal translucency (NT) and maternal age using an maternal age standardized population. Maternal serum HhCG in cases of Down syndrome were significantly elevated (median MoM 1.97) with 24/54 (44%) of cases above the 95th centile for unaffected pregnancies. Free β-hCG was also elevated (median MoM 2.09) with 33% of cases above the 95th centile. PAPP-A levels were reduced (median MoM 0.47) with 38% below the 5th centile. ThCG levels, whilst elevated (median MoM 1.34), had only 20% of cases above the 95th centile. Maternal serum HhCG levels were not correlated with fetal NT but showed significant correlation with ThCG and free β-hCG and with PAPP-A in the Down syndrome group (r=0.536). Maternal serum HhCG levels in cases with Down syndrome had a significant correlation with gestational age, increasing as the gestation increased. When HhCG was combined together with fetal NT, PAPP-A and maternal age, at a 5% false-positive rate the modeled detection rate was 83%, some 6% lower than when free β-hCG was used and some 4% better than when ThCG was used. Maternal serum HhCG is unlikely to be of additional value when screening for Down syndrome in the first trimester. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First-trimester maternal serum human thyroid-stimulating hormone in chromosomally normal and Down syndrome pregnancies

Maternal serum human thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels were investigated in chromosomally normal and Down syndrome pregnancies to determine whether TSH can be used as a marker for Down syndrome in the first trimester. Measurements were conducted on stored serum samples collected from 23 Down syndrome pregnancies and 115 unaffected pregnancies before chorionic villus sampling (CVS), between 9 and 11 completed weeks of pregnancy. The samples were matched for gestational age, maternal age, maternal weight and duration of storage of the serum sample. Maternal TSH concentration was slightly decreased in Down syndrome pregnancies, with a median of 0.84 multiples of the median (MoM). Maternal serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) concentration was slightly elevated in Down syndrome pregnancies, with a median of 1.03 MoM. Both differences were not significant applying matched rank analysis (p=0.50 for TSH and p=0.43 for hCG). The association between TSH and hCG in unaffected pregnancies was also measured. The Spearman correlation coefficient between TSH and hCG was −0.21 which was statistically significant (p=0.02, 95% confidence interval −0.38 to −0.03). However, it was concluded that TSH is not a useful marker for distinguishing Down syndrome-affected pregnancies from normal pregnancies in the first trimester. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Second-trimester levels of maternal urinary gonadotropin peptide in down syndrome pregnancy

Urinary gonadotropin peptide (UGP; β-core fragment), a major metabolite of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), was shown recently to be markedly elevated in Down syndrome pregnancy between 19 and 22 weeks of gestation. To confirm and extend this finding, we obtained maternal urine and matching maternal serum samples from 14 cases of Down syndrome and six other aneuploidies between 17 and 21 weeks of gestation. UGP was measured in all these samples and in 91 singleton control urines. Results were corrected for urinary creatinine level and expressed as multiples of the control median (MOM). hCG levels were assayed in all serum samples from the cases and compared with previously established reference values. The median UGP level in Down syndrome cases was 5.34 MOM (range 2.71–12.57); 88 per cent of the values were above the 95th centile of control levels after modelling. The median maternal serum hCG level for the same cases was 2.20 MOM (range 0.84–3.40); 36 per cent of the values were above the 95th centile. The level of UGP in every case including all other aneuploidies was higher than the comparable maternal serum hCG level. Elevated UGP measurements are strongly associated with fetal Down syndrome during the second trimester and could contribute to improved Down syndrome screening protocols that are more accessible and less expensive than are currently available.     

The influence of serum screening on the amniocentesis rate in women of advanced maternal age

We investigated the effect of maternal serum screening on the amniocentesis (AC) rate in women of advanced maternal age. The AC rate after maternal serum screening was compared in two groups of women with a singleton pregnancy, 855 women of 30–35 years and 98 of 36 years and older. In our population, 34·1 per cent of the women of 36 years or older were ‘screen-positive’ for Down syndrome. Only 41·2 per cent of these women chose to undergo AC as opposed to 88·2 per cent in the younger age group. Within the older age group, the tendency to avoid AC increased with increasing age. Maternal serum screening led to a significant decrease in the AC rate in the older women. In this group, a comparison between the ‘a priori’ and the calculated risk might have had more influence on the decision to undergo AC than being screen-positive or screen-negative as such. We conclude that maternal serum screening had a major effect on the AC rate in women of advanced maternal age. This is of importance in a society in which the average maternal age is steadily increasing.