矿产资源需求拐点理论与峰值预测

矿产资源的有限性同需求快速增长之间的矛盾日趋突出。未来我国经济发展究竟需要多少矿产资源,何时到达矿产资源需求高峰,这些问题是国家制定矿产资源战略的基础。研究提出矿产资源消耗双拐点理论:一是矿产资源消耗强度达到峰值时对应的拐点,矿产资源由粗放利用向集约利用转变;二是矿产资源消费水平达到峰值时对应的拐点,矿产资源消费由增加向减少转变。经过逻辑推导,并以先期工业化的美国为例,追溯矿产资源消耗与经济社会发展变迁的历史轨迹来佐证了这一理论。通过比较研究,定性地判断我国未来矿产资源消耗趋势,未来5~15 a我国矿产资源需求空间仍然很大。选择BP神经网络和岭回归预测方法,综合考虑经济发展、 人口变化和科技进步等因素,基于Matlab软件实现了对我国矿产资源需求的拐点与峰值预测。预测结果显示:能源需求拐点将在"十四五"时期出现,峰值为45×10⁸~50×10⁸ t标准煤;钢铁需求拐点将在"十三五"时期出现,峰值为8×10⁸ t左右;铜需求拐点将在"十三五"时期出现,峰值为900×10⁴ t左右;铝需求拐点将在"十二五"时期出现,峰值为1 600×10⁴~1 700×10⁴ t左右。     

新疆能源矿产资源开发补偿机制研究

新疆能源矿产资源丰富,但资源优势并未有效转化为经济优势,资源开发的负外部性问题严重。文章分析探讨了新疆矿产资源开发对经济发展的贡献,以及资源开发对生态环境造成的影响,在分析新疆现行的能源矿产资源补偿机制、其补偿作用以及存在问题的基础上,调查分析了新疆建立能源矿产资源生态补偿机制的基础和条件,提出建立和完善新疆矿产资源开发利益补偿体系的对策建议。     

面向循环经济的矿产资源开发利用模式

科学的发现与技术进步使一些矿物逐渐变成为人类所利用的资源。矿物的开发利用又为可持续发展的实现提供支持。论文面向循环经济,对经济发展的模式进行了探讨,分析了矿产资源开发利用的循环经济途径,针对矿业的特点,从企业、产业园区、区域3个层次确定了矿产资源的开发利用模式,提出了相应的产业政策。研究认为:①循环经济模式是矿业可持续发展的惟一途径;②矿产资源的开发利用在不同的层次应采取各自的发展模式;③煤炭是我国的主要能源,煤炭资源的循环经济模式可以提高资源的利用率和减少对环境造成的破坏与污染,促进国民经济可持续发展。     

Industrial ecology framework for achieving cleaner production in the mining and minerals industry

Industrial ecology (IE) is an emerging framework adopted in the manufacturing, construction, and process industries to provide innovative solutions in strategic planning, leading to cleaner operation and production. An IE framework integrates a large number of processes, economic constraints, and environmental, health and safety considerations for optimized resource utilization. This paper provides a review of environmental management practices in the mining and minerals industry, emphasizing two concepts: IE and cleaner production. The mining and minerals industry provides primary materials for industrial activities; as such, it is an important component in the “industrial ecosystem.” This industry is subject to very stringent social and environmental scrutiny, while providing society with required natural resources to meet essential sustainable development requirements. The implementation of an IE framework in the sector will contribute to sustainable development.     

我国自然资源核算的实践进展与理论体系构建

加强自然资源核算理论研究与实践工作是完善自然资源治理体系和提升治理能力的基础。基于WSR“物理、事理、人理”方法论,对自然资源核算理论和文献开展研究,探索构建我国的自然资源核算体系。研究结果表明：WSR系统方法论适宜于自然资源核算分析;基于WSR系统分析,自然资源核算体系结构包括宏观的以服务于宏观经济规划和经济决策为目的的自然资源国民经济核算,中观的以服务于政府资产管理为目的的自然资源资产管理核算,微观的以服务于企业自然资源资产经营和市场要素配置为目的的企业经营性自然资源会计核算;基于WSR方法构建的自然资源核算体系有助于明晰各层次核算目的、核算框架、实现途径、核算方法上的选择。     

矿产资源规划环境影响评价内容与方法

在经济快速发展对矿产资源需求量急剧增加的背景下,如何解决好矿产资源勘查、开发与环境保护之间的关系显得越来越重要.要减少矿产资源开发过程对环境造成的影响,从源头上控制污染,最有效的方法之一就是对将要实施的矿产资源规划进行环境影响评价.通过介绍中国矿产资源规划的概况,在大量矿产资源规划环境影响评价实践的基础上,综合考虑资源、经济、社会和环境的关系,总结提出了矿产资源规划环评的主要内容、评价重点和主要的评价方法.为矿产资源规划环境影响评价工作提供了参考依据.     

Institutionalising social learning: Towards systemic and adaptive governance

This paper critically examines how public policy makers limit policy and other institutional design choices by a failure to appreciate (i) how situations may be characterised or framed; (ii) how practices that generate neologisms (invented terms or concepts) or reify (make into a thing) abstract concepts can displace understandings, and (iii) the epistemological bases of governance mechanism choices. An inquiry into the coining of the neologisms ‘wicked’ and ‘tame’ problems is reported and the implications for research and policy practice explored. As practices, neologising, reifying, categorising and typologising have unintended consequences – they remove us from the primary experiences and underlying emotions that provided the motivation for formulating these concepts in the first place. The failure to institutionalise the understandings and experiences that sit behind the invention of the terms ‘wicked’ and ‘tame’ problems (or similar framing choices such as ‘problematique’, ‘messes’, ‘lowland real-life swamps’, ‘resource dilemmas’ or ‘complex adaptive systems’) present systemic constraints to institutionalising social learning as an alternative yet complementary governance mechanism within an overall systemic and adaptive governance framework. Ultimately situations usefully framed as ‘wicked’,’ such as water managing and climate change are problems of relationship – of human beings with the biosphere. Re-framings, such as institutions as social technologies and other research and praxis traditions concerned with the breakdown of relationships may offer ways forward in the purposeful designing and crafting of more effective institutions.     

我国铅锌矿资源开发治理模式及政策研究——以陕西省卡子镇铅锌矿资源为例

铅锌矿是我国优势矿产资源,长期以来由于我国经济发展落后,对其开发治理均处于较低层次,消耗严重。本文在综合分析我国铅锌矿资源特点、开发治理现状以及存在问题的基础上,以陕西省白河县卡子镇铅锌矿资源为例,探讨了适合我国国情的铅锌矿资源开发治理新模式,并以政策论证的方法提出了相关政策建议,以为当地乃至整个国家矿业资源的可持续发展提供借鉴。     

区域矿产资源开发的一般模式与应用——以赣江流域为例

本文首次将矿产资源开发作为一个能动型开放系统予以研讨,通过建立区域矿产资源开发数据库、计算矿产资源对国民经济发展的保证程度、计算矿产资源开发的价值贡献、经济地质区划和有限投资倾向的优选等5个方面实行宏观控制;通过组建矿产资源开发生产联合体进行中观调节;通过成立矿产资源开发综合研究机构获取微观反馈,建立了区域矿产资源开发的新模式,并以赣江流域为例进行了探讨,取得了有意义的结果。     

中国石油资源利用的区域经济效应差异分析

效率导向的石油资源利用布局使我国的原油生产格局与加工利用格局之间形成显著错位。鉴于石油资源利用的根本目的应是促进区域社会经济全面发展,而不是单纯追求资源的利用效率,因此,论文基于区域投入产出表,构建增加值拉动乘数和增加值推动乘数两个投入产出系数,测算并对比了我国不同区域石油资源利用的区域综合经济效应,指出：1）我国石油资源利用的区域经济效应分异小于其直接经济效应分异,表明各区域的石油资源利用均通过区内产业链传导,促进了区域经济的整体发展;2）区域的资源禀赋、经济技术水平和产业结构特征之间的相互作用是影响我国石油资源利用的区域经济效应分异的主要因素;总体而言,资源型和精加工型产业结构在实现石油资源利用的区域经济效应方面各具优势,甚至在一定程度上存在区域经济效应的“资源地优胜”现象;3）未来我国应进一步完善石油资源的东、中、西分区配置格局,强化石油资源利用能力和水平在三大地带间的“U”型分布态势,重点在主要石油资源地和进口地加强石油炼化发展,发挥井口和口岸的资源、产业优势;以其为中心,石油资源的利用规模和能力应大体上沿主要石油运输通道向外逐层递减,以控制资源流动成本。     

Trends in the small-scale mining of precious minerals in Ghana: a perspective on its environmental impact

Small-scale mining in Ghana is defined to include both the exploitation of mineral deposits (1) using fairly rudimentary implements and/or (2) at low levels of production with minimal capital investment. While the large-scale mining—of particularly gold—has become predominant, small-scale mining, which predates such operations, has continued to be an important economic activity, particularly within the remote and poorer areas of the country. The environmental impacts of such small operations have, however, varied, depending on methods and the scale of operation. The factors that have contributed to aggravating these environmental impacts are economic, technical, legal, and operational in nature. Although mitigation efforts have had a limited impact, it is expected that the measures now being considered for adoption will improve the efficacy of the Government of Ghana’s drive towards improving environmental management in resident small-scale precious metal mining operations.This paper examines the environmental impacts of small-scale mining in Ghana—with particular emphasis on precious minerals and metals extraction—and outlines a series of initiatives for improving environmental performance in the industry.     

A framework for evaluating flood risk governance

Calls to strengthen flood risk governance are echoed across Europe amidst a growing consensus that floods will increase in the future. Accompanying the pursuit of societal resilience, other normative agendas relating legitimacy (e.g. accountability and public participation), and resource efficiency, have become attached to discussions concerning flood risk governance. Whilst these represent goals against which ‘success’ is socially and politically judged, lacking from the literature is a coherent framework to operationalise these concepts and evaluate the degree to which these are achieved. Drawing from cross-disciplinary and cross-country research conducted within the EU project STAR-FLOOD, this paper presents a framework for evaluating the extent to which flood risk governance arrangements support societal resilience, and demonstrate efficiency and legitimacy. Through empirical research in England, this paper critically reflects on the value of this approach in terms of identifying entry points to strengthen governance in the pursuit of these goals.     

Bridging the gap between ecosystem service assessments and land-use planning through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

Land-use planning is an important determinant for green space policy in cities. It defines land covers and hence the structure and function of urban ecosystems and the benefits these provide to humans, such as air purification, urban cooling, runoff mitigation, and recreation. The ecosystem service approach has helped to attract policy attention to these benefits but the concept remains poorly implemented in urban policy and governance. To address this gap, we advance a framework to bridge ecosystem services into policy processes through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) as decision support tool. The paper is organized in three main parts. First, we conduct a systematic literature review to assess state-of-the-art knowledge on ecosystem service assessments through MCDA. Next, we build on insights from the literature review to develop the ‘ecosystem services policy-cycle’, a conceptual framework that merges the ‘ecosystem service cascade’ and ‘policy cycle’ models to reinforce the link between ecosystem service assessments and practical applications in urban policy and governance. Next, we illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework along an example about conflicting interests on land use and green space planning following the closure of the Airport Tempelhof in Berlin, Germany. Our results highlight the scope of MCDA as a decision support tool for integrating ecosystem service assessments in green space governance. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of different methodological choices in the use of MCDA in ecosystem service assessments and note that a key strength of this tool in informing green space policies lies in its capacity to accommodate conflicting stakeholder perspectives and to address trade-offs between ecological, social and economic values.     

我国区域矿产资源竞争力评价及与区域经济相关性研究

矿产资源对一国的国民经济发展具有重要的战略意义。论文在分析已有文献资料的基础上,结合数据可获得性原则构建我国区域矿产资源竞争力评价指标体系,并详细阐述各指标的计量方法。然后,运用多指标输入/输出复杂系统的相对有效性评价方法———数据包络分析(DEA)法,并收集2000—2009年数据对我国区域(东部、中部和西部)矿产资源竞争力进行评估,揭示其变化规律。最后,用我国区域2000—2009年的"矿产资源竞争力"和"人均GDP增长率"分别代表其矿产资源的丰裕程度和经济发展水平,结合协整检验和Granger因果分析法验证矿产的"资源诅咒"假说在我国区域间是否成立。研究结果显示:①随着时间的推移以及我国市场经济的发展,区域矿产资源竞争力在不断地提升。另外,我国三大区域的矿产资源竞争力与其所拥有的矿产资源储量成反比;②区域矿产资源竞争力与其经济发展水平呈长期稳定的均衡、双向因果关系,得出矿产的"资源诅咒"假说不成立的结论。上述研究成果对于我国如何提升矿产资源竞争力及利用矿产资源发展区域经济具有极其重要的指导意义。     

我国可持续发展的矿产资源基础

我国是世界上矿产生产和消费大国。由于工业化起步晚、人口基数大，我国矿产资源相对不足。欲在此资源基础上实施国家可持续发展战略，除了继续增加资金和技术投入以扩大资源总量及完善法制和管理以加强节约外，加大矿产资源供应系统的开放性，增加关键短缺矿种，特别是油气资源的进口十分重要。世界工业化发展历史和我国多年经济发展的实践证明，高速的经济发展有赖于更为开放的矿产资源供应，而生活水平的提高和日益恶化的生态环境则迫使能源消费结构不断革新。从这一点出发，未来矿产资源供应建立在国内和国际市场“两个轮子”之上必将成为我国矿产可持续发展战略的重要组成部分。     

Multilevel water,biodiversity and climate adaptation governance: evaluating adaptive management in Lesotho

In many cases in which climate change affects natural resources, impacts are uncertain and adaptation to climate change often involves collective action problems at the local level, which are embedded in multilevel governance regimes. Adaptive management (AM) is an emerging approach to deal with such uncertainty and complexity by promoting multilevel institutions that are robust to change and able to learn. Much of the literature evaluating AM in multilevel governance regimes, however, focuses only on the adherence to certain structural features said to make AM successful, leaving aside the question whether AM actually produces desired outcomes. This paper evaluates AM in multilevel regimes also in terms of the outcomes they produce. To this end, we first apply the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) in order to describe three multilevel regimes in Lesotho. For each regime we then observe whether it adheres to the structure features of AM. Finally, we evaluate the extent to which the outcomes, natural resource management projects, are conducive to Ostrom's (1990) ‘design principles’ for sustainable common-pool resource management. We find that, though no ideal ‘adaptive regime’ is found in Lesotho, the results confirm the AM hypotheses that decentralised decision-making, open information sources, and plurality of user interests lead to improved outcomes. Conversely, elements of the climate regime are found not to be adaptive. Our findings also confirm the appropriateness of AM as a governance approach to climate adaptation.     

柴达木盆地资源开发的环境影响与对策研究

柴达木盆地干旱少雨,风大沙多,水资源短缺,生态环境脆弱。水资源是资源开发和生态环境保护需要协调和优化的关键因素。柴达木盆地的资源开发以柴达木循环经济试验区为核心,重点构建以盐湖资源综合开发利用为核心的循环经济产业链体系。柴达木盆地盐湖资源、金属和非金属矿产资源、石油天然气资源开发以及主要工业布局将对水资源利用、盐湖水盐平衡、重点湖泊湿地保护、绿洲安全和水环境产生较大影响或带来累积性生态环境风险。针对柴达木盆地资源开发可能带来的环境影响和生态风险,提出了区域资源开发和产业发展布局的优化调控对策和促进经济社会可持续发展的环境保护对策和建议     

区域资源禀赋对资源利用效率影响研究

论文将研究的视点从关注资源禀赋与经济发展的关系,转向资源禀赋对资源利用效率的影响上,选取了中国大陆31个省(自治区、直辖市,未计算香港、澳门地区)2008年能源和水资源的面板数据,力图用统计模型来验证资源禀赋对资源利用效率存在负相关作用的假说,即资源越丰富的地区,对该种资源使用效率往往越低。研究发现:资源禀赋对资源利用效率存在显著的逆向影响,资源的"诅咒"效应不仅作用于区域经济发展上,也同样作用于资源利用效率上;然而,不同于经济诅咒,资源禀赋与资源利用效率之间的这种负相关关系在分散型资源上体现更加明显。对区域资源禀赋与资源利用效率之间影响关系与作用机制更深入的研究将为科学、高效的资源管理政策提供理论支持。     

出口贸易和FDI加剧了资源型城市的环境污染吗?——基于中国285个地级城市面板数据的经验研究

论文沿用经典EKC分析框架,在现有资源型城市环境污染研究基础上加入了出口贸易开放度、利用外资水平、研发水平及污染治理水平等因素。分析基于2005—2012年中国285个地级城市（包括115个资源型城市和170个非资源型城市）的面板数据,考虑可能存在的内生性问题,使用固定效应模型和工具变量GMM估计的方法,实证考察了出口贸易和FDI是否加剧了资源型城市的环境污染。研究表明,出口贸易显著地加剧了中国资源型城市的环境污染,FDI则在一定程度上加剧了环境污染;中国主要地级城市的人均收入和环境污染呈“倒U型”的库兹涅茨关系;环境影响因素对各类资源型城市污染排放产生的作用具有异质性,原因在于不同类型城市存在不同的资源依赖程度和技术水平。最后,论文对中国现阶段部分有关资源开采与相关外商投资、资源型城市发展等政策与规划及其存在的问题进行整理,并根据经验研究结论得到相关政策启示。     

秦皇岛市废矿物油资源化初探

在分析秦皇岛市废矿物油的产生和排放现状的基础上，指出废矿物油资源化是解决近岸海域油污染的最佳条件，并提出了一些可操作性的废矿物油资源化对策。