Regional sustainability contrasts in Brazil as indicated by the Compass of Sustainability – CompasSus

The current need for assessing sustainable processes and states is a driving assumption for this article, having as objective to present preliminary results of a new assessment approach, the Compass of Sustainability (CompasSus), applied to administrative regions of Brazil. Its methodological approach is based on a combination of existing assessment methodologies, such as the Human Development Index and the Ecological Footprint. CompasSus is elaborated under the perspective of rather complementary operational concepts of sustainable development, namely weak and strong sustainability, which are often seen as competing ones. In spite of the advances on the perspective of sustainable development perceived in international agreements for conservation of nature, as well as in the implementation of national policies aiming at sustainability, there still exists an operational ambiguity of the concept of sustainability. Thus, its fuzzy theoretical consolidation for clear definition of objectives and lines of action still leads to different assumptions for diverse stakeholders and authors. Looking at the Brazilian case, conservation strategies are needed to protect the world's largest tropical rainforest against a predatory business – as-usual frontier expansion. As for addressing trade-offs between environmental conservation and regional development demands the CompasSus introduces a combined hemispheric assessment of sustainability. In 2006, the state in which the sustainability index had the best performance was DF (Distrito Federal). This, the seat of the capital city, presents an economy based on the public and the service sectors, both very little carbon and energy intensive. Furthermore, the high income per capita, and good social indicators associated with the small relevance of the agrarian sector grants it the best sustainability index, which is determined by performances in two components representing strong and weak sustainability. In the other extreme is São Paulo (SP) where a high population density and major impacts on waterways have implied a worse performance in weak sustainability index, whereas the high consumption of energy together with high carbon emissions have also determined a low performance in strong sustainability index.     

Re-considering product design: a practical “road-map” for integration of sustainability issues

The proliferation of sustainability assessment principles, strategies, actions, and tools has created confusion about pathways forward for companies. It is unclear how existing approaches are complementary or distinct. How does a company assess current products and materials? How could designers create more sustainable products? What criteria, principles, approaches, and tools should be applied? Why? Is there a practical “road map” to guide product designers and product development managers in integrating sustainability issues into their decision-making processes?This article builds on previous frameworks for understanding the interconnections between various assessment principles, strategies, actions, and tools related to industrial ecology, human and labor rights, and corporate social responsibility [Waage S, Geiser K, Irwin F, Weissman A, Bertolucci M, Fisk P, et al. Fitting together the building blocks for sustainability: a revised model for integrating ecological, social, and financial factors into business decision-making. Journal of Cleaner Production 2005;13(12):1117–206; Robèrt K-H, Schmidt-Bleek B, Aloisi de Larderel J, Basile G, Jansen JL, Kuehr R, et al. Strategic sustainable development—selection, design and synergies of applied tools. Journal of Cleaner Production 2002;10(3):197–214; Robèrt K-H. Tools and concepts for sustainable development, how do they relate to a framework for sustainable development, and to each other? Journal of Cleaner Production 2000;8(3):243–54]. Expanding on past work, this piece suggests a “road map” for application by product designers and product development managers. A four-phase process is offered for integrating systems and sustainability perspectives into product design, manufacturing, and delivery decisions.     

湖泊水质富营养化评价的模糊神经网络方法

为了探索人工神经网络用于湖泊营养化评价的可能性,提出了基于多准则学习的模糊神经网络湖泊水质营养化评价模型。该模型应用于我国五大主要湖泊水质营养化的评价结果表明,模糊神经网络用于湖泊水质营养化评价,具有简便、实用、客观性和广泛的通用性。      

An economic and environmental framework for analyzing globally sourced auto parts packaging system

Competitive forces are driving US domestic manufacturers to source parts globally, which significantly extends their supply chain and introduces new sustainability concerns. This paper addresses the situation from an operating division manager's perspective. We present an approach to packaging system assessment which considers the division manager's span of control, addresses the design of packaging and the corresponding logistics processes, and incorporates both cost and environmental impacts. A construct familiar to operations managers, the value stream map, is adapted to model material flow of both parts and packages, and an integrated material flow analysis is used as the common basis for cost analysis, a modified life cycle environmental impact analysis, and an energy consumption analysis. The framework is illustrated using a case study of a major US automaker.     

基于梯形模糊数的沉积物重金属污染风险评价模型与实例研究

综合考虑到经典确定性污染评价模型的现实缺陷,将梯形模糊数理论引入环境评价领域,通过将研究区域重金属背景值及重金属实测含量的梯形模糊数化,结合聚类分析、α-截集技术和区间数隶属度计算,最后基于定义的重金属生物毒性评价权重系数建立了沉积物重金属污染风险模糊评价模型.采用该评价模型评价了洞庭湖表层沉积物重金属污染的风险状况,结果表明,洞庭湖水系表层沉积物中7种重金属污染风险程度排序为:Hg>Cd>Pb>Cu>Cr>Zn>As,Hg、Cd和Pb应成为洞庭湖水环境污染治理的优先控制因子.与确定性模型评价结果的对比分析表明,模糊评价模型得出了各重金属地累积指数的可能值区间,并进而得出与之对应的隶属可信度水平,从而较好地弥补了确定性评价的不足,更客观地、全面地表征了评价区域沉积物中重金属的真实污染状态与空间分布差异.     

基于三角模糊数和重金属化学形态的土壤重金属污染综合评价模型

将三角模糊数理论引入环境评价领域,构建了量化表征不同重金属自身生物毒性及同一重金属不同化学存在形态生物毒性的土壤重金属生物毒性双权重评价体系,并结合地累积指数评价模型,建立了土壤重金属污染综合评价模型.最后,采用该综合评价模型评价了寺庄顶典型污灌区的土壤重金属污染状况.评价结果表明,寺庄顶典型污灌区土壤中5种重金属的综合污染评价值差异较大,各重金属的综合污染程度排序为:Cd＞Ni＞Cu＞Zn＞Cr,Cd、Ni、Cu应成为今后该地区土壤污染治理的主要控制因子.与确定性模型评价结果的对比分析表明,综合评价模型较好地弥补了确定性评价的不足,并能更全面、真实地综合表征评价区域土壤重金属富集污染和潜在生物毒性风险信息,为科学决策提供了理论基础.     

基于随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合的重金属污染评价模型

基于河流环境系统中随机性、模糊性等多种不确定信息共存的特性,采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟三角模糊数,并将其应用到沉积物重金属污染评价领域,通过将各重金属实测含量及地球化学背景值三角模糊化,然后进行随机模拟,并结合各等级概率水平加权进行综合污染等级分析,建立了基于随机模拟与三角模糊数(SS-TFN)理论的沉积物重金属地累积指数评价模型.采用该模型对湘江长沙段沉积物中重金属污染状况进行评价.结果表明,Cd的污染程度最大,处于严重污染级别;其次为Zn和Hg,处于重度污染级别,并有向严重污染恶化的趋势;而其他重金属污染程度则较低.相对于确定性评价方法,该模型能够得出评价区域重金属地累积指数的可能值区间及其相应的概率水平,客观真实地综合表征沉积物中重金属分布及污染情况,为科学决策提供更多全面合理的信息.     

A methodology for the life cycle and sustainability analysis of manufacturing processes

Life cycle assessment is emerging as a powerful tool in the evaluation of the environmental impact of manufacturing processes. This paper describes a general methodology for the life cycle analysis of manufacturing processes taking into account the flexibility and decision-making potential of knowledge base systems. Emphasis is placed on on-site waste minimisation and associated sustainability characteristics in relation to environmental impact assessment and process improvement. The ensuing software model is applied with some success to an initial study of pulp and paper manufacture.     

The roles of cleaner production in the sustainable development of modern societies: an introduction to this special issue

This issue of the Journal of Cleaner Production is based upon papers presented at the 1st International Workshop Advances in Cleaner Production (CP) held in São Paulo, Brazil, in 2007. The conference had the short-term purpose of deepening the Brazilian discussion on “The Roles of Cleaner Production in the Sustainable Development of Modern Societies”, and it had the long-term objective of providing an on-going interdisciplinary forum for knowledge development and exchange on Cleaner Production (CP) and Sustainable Development. This issue is devoted to papers covering a broad range of perspectives of CP practices and strategies. A special focus is placed upon methodological tools designed to support effective decision-making pertaining to quantitative benefits from CP.The ten papers provide insights from research designed to holistically integrate CP to help society make effective progress to sustainability. Papers cover the importance of informal knowledge, as complementary to formal knowledge, in performing effective ‘Environmental Impact Assessments.’ One paper explores the roles of radical and incremental innovation in the context of alternative automotive technologies. Benefits of Ecodesign are explored in two papers; one concerning its integration with remanufacturing to extend the life of used products and one focusing the adoption of ‘Emergy Environmental Accounting,’ as a complementary decision-making tool. The development of the Brazilian LCI database for ‘hydroelectric power generation’ and its contribution to support regionally relevant LCA studies is highlighted in one paper. The complete production chains of biodiesel and bioethanol are evaluated by using global methodologies, which help in the development of more objective and effective solutions. A “compensatory area”, calculated in terms of emergy, is proposed in order to work in a sustainable way for bamboo production. Finally, a paper about a novel approach for recycling used PET is also included.     

基于遥感和GIS的黄河三角洲盐化土地动态及其驱动力分析

基于黄河三角洲3期遥感影像,以垦利县为研究区,综合运用RS与GIS技术,通过构建土地盐化指数、土地盐化综合指数、土地变化驱动力重心与向量模型等,对研究区1987-2007年的盐化土地动态及其驱动力进行定量分析。研究结果显示:垦利县的土地盐化程度呈现了重-轻-重的变化趋势,区域内盐化程度由沿海向内陆依次递减;且以黄河为轴线对称分布,黄河沿岸以及地势较高的西南部盐化程度较低。重度盐化土地先减后增;中度持续减少,轻度则是先增后减。海洋和黄河相互作用影响着垦利县的水盐运动,是该区土地盐化动态的内在驱动,而人类活动的影响以土地利用类型转化的形式表现,是土地盐化动态的外在驱动力。研究为区域盐化地治理和农业可持续发展提供了科学依据,对黄河三角洲土地资源的可持续利用有积极的理论和现实意义。     

生态补偿对区域发展的影响——以甘南黄河水源补给区为例

生态补偿给实施区带来许多影响,其有效性和持续性受到各种因素的挑战,全面评估生态补偿带来的影响是提高决策科学性的必要前提。基于多准则模糊分析模型,采用参与性农户评估方法对甘南牧民家庭进行调查,并根据分布区域将其分成纯牧区牧户、半牧区牧户和农区牧户,就实施生态补偿后对补给区内的经济、社会和环境变化造成的影响进行了分析。结果表明:①生态补偿的实施对区域发展的总体影响指数为3.39,影响程度较高,其中生态补偿对区域经济、社会发展和环境的影响指数分别为3.11、3.58和3.71;②受生态补偿的影响,研究区经济发展缓慢,其中对农户收入结构的变化影响最高,纯牧区和半牧区农户的人均收入和农畜产品商品率出现一定的下降;③受生态补偿的影响,牧民在环保意识和自身技能提高方面在三组间没有很大差异,纯牧区牧民具有更好的就业方式和维权意识,半牧区和农区牧民则对监督意识、参与意识、生活质量的提升具有更深感受;④生态补偿对环境改善的影响程度最高,影响指数为3.71,纯牧区牧民感受最为强烈,其次是半牧区和农区。     

合成旅后装保障方案决策运用模糊评价方法探讨

为使合成旅后装保障方案的决策过程量化,达到决策结果更加符合客观事实的目的,通过引入模糊评价方法,结合分析后装保障方案决策的选择影响因素,确定了不同指标因素下对应的隶属函数,进而建立了针对后装保障方案决策评价问题的定量分析评价模型,最后给出该评价方法的实例运用,结果分析可知该模型在一定程度上保证了后装保障方案决策的科学合理性。     

Emissions corridors for reducing the risk of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation

In this paper, we present the integrated assessment model dimrise (dynamic integrated model of regular climate change impacts and singular events). This model is designed to investigate the stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and to derive related climate policy recommendations. It is written in GAMS and comprises a dynamic model of the THC coupled to a climate model and a global economy model for assessing the monetary cost of climate protection. The THC model is a dynamic four-box interhemispheric extension of the classic Stommel model calibrated against results obtained using the CLIMBER-2 climate model. The reduced-form climate model used to drive the THC model is the ICLIPS multi-gas climate model, which is a computationally efficient, globally aggregated model able to mimic the response of more sophisticated carbon cycle and atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The THC and climate modules are coupled to a globally aggregated Ramsey-type optimal growth model of the world economy derived from the Nordhaus DICE model. Together, these components create a novel dynamic fully coupled computationally efficient integrated assessment model. Illustrative applications demonstrate that dimrise is able to derive (constrained) economically optimal emissions paths that comply with prescribed bounds on admissible THC weakening imposed in order to avoid an irrevocable breakdown. In addition, emissions corridors are presented which contain all possible emissions paths that do not endanger the stability of the THC and that simultaneously obey restrictions on welfare loss arising from mitigation efforts. The presented results show that, under worst-case conditions, the stability of the THC may be threatened within two decades if global emissions would not deviate from the business-as-usual trajectory.

基于情景模糊动态MABAC的可再生能源选择方法

为构建一套有效选择可再生能源的指标体系和评价方法,考虑多种能源的不同特性对环境与经济承载力的制约,围绕经济、环境、技术、社会政治及能源来源质量5个维度,提出能够全面评价可再生能源的指标体系和基于情景模糊动态MABAC（多属性边界逼近区域比较法）的评价方法.在评价方法构建上,采用情景模糊集（picture fuzzy set,PFS）对MABAC进行改进,实现在多准则决策问题中利用模糊信息进行精准决策.在此基础上,将时间因素与MABAC相拟合,进一步求得可再生能源与边界逼近区域的贴近度,确定与地方环境承载力相适宜的可再生能源.结果表明:在考虑时间因素的条件下,风能、太阳能、水能与边界逼近区域的贴近度分别为0.102 66、-0.133 90、0.040 16,说明风能为经济效益最佳的可再生能源,太阳能为可利用能源;在未考虑时间因素条件下,所得到的贴近度则与之存在差异,风能、太阳能、水能与边界逼近区域的贴近度分别为0.011 29、-0.058 00、0.023 40.研究显示,基于情景模糊动态MABAC评价结果与实际情况更相符,且通过模型的验证过程来看,该模型不仅可以提高结果的精确性,也同样易于实施和便于推广.      

流域水环境累积风险评估研究

流域水环境累积风险属于多层次、多准则的复合系统问题,具有一定的模糊和突变特性,在可持续发展的要求下,对流域进行水环境风险综合评估与防控十分必要.建立基于16项底层指标的流域水环境累积风险评估综合指标体系,将突变理论应用于表达和计算累积环境风险,可以形成系统完整的流域水环境累积风险评估研究方法.以流溪河流域为例,通过分区计算分析流域水环境累积风险形势,得出流溪河流域上游水环境累积风险水平较低,流域中游和下游均有较高的水环境累积风险.     

山地城市灾害系统模糊风险评价

灾害风险是当前灾害研究的热点和核心之一。从灾害系统整体角度,厘定区域灾害系统风险,明晰灾害系统风险要素构成及其作用机制,对于科学指导区域综合防灾减灾具有重要意义。在山地城市灾害系统研究的基础上,基于"R=H×E×S/C"的灾害系统模糊风险概念模型,构建了反映山地城市灾害系统"致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、灾损敏感性和防灾减灾能力"四个方面的"山地城市灾害系统模糊风险评价指标体系";提出了对山地城市灾害系统模糊风险进行定量评价与排序的"综合赋权(AHP-EVM)"二级模糊综合评判模型。在上述研究基础上,以重庆市38个区县作为研究对象,对理论模型进行了实证研究,并从整体上初步阐明和解释了山地城市(重庆市)38个区县的灾害系统模糊风险等级及成因。研究得出以下结论:(1)基于"综合赋权"模糊综合评判的"山地城市灾害系统模糊风险"评价结果科学、可靠,能够从整体反映山地城市灾害系统模糊风险水平及其构成。经过与灾情数据对比、专家评判,本研究所得评价结果通过验证,且与"模糊物元评价"所得结果基本一致。(2)重庆市灾害系统模糊风险整体水平居中。其中,渝中区、江北区,渝东北的城口县、奉节县以及渝东南的酉阳县,灾害系统风险等级高,各类灾害发生及造成损失的可能性较大,是未来防灾减灾工作的重点。     

Comparison of three dry deposition models applied to field measurements in the Southern Bight of the North Sea

Dry deposition velocities have been calculated using three different approaches. Turbulent wind profile theory has been used to predict the drag coefficient, wind speed and friction velocity at 10 m height when the wind speed is measured at a higher altitude. The resulting parameters were introduced in a two-layer deposition model. The second approach was the well-known model of Slinn and Slinn (1980, Atmospheric Environment14, 1013–1016), whereas the third corresponded to the model published by Williams (1982, Atmospheric Environment16, 1933–1938). Results point to clear differences. However, in a field experiment carried out at the Southern Bight of the North Sea, all three approaches show relatively comparable results. The role played by the size distribution of atmospheric particulate matter is essential. In our case any of the three models could have given satisfactory outcomes taking into account the wide spread of the experimental results cited in the literature for the same airshed.     

Environmental efficiency analysis for ENI oil refineries

This paper describes a new model for evaluating the (relative) environmental efficiency of the seven AgipPetroli oil refineries set up in Italy during the 4-year period (1993–96). In particular, the environmental impact is considered in terms of air emissions. The Data Enveloped Analysis is proposed as an objective benchmark. This multi-criteria technique makes it possible to evaluate the relative environmental efficiency considering six different types of emissions (CO, CO₂, SO₂, etc.) and the annual quantity of oil processed.     

基于生态效率的城市可持续性评价及应用研究

综合评价城市复合生态系统是实现区域可持续发展要面对的重要科学问题.城市生态效率反映了城市系统的资源环境与社会福利的投入产出关系,是将可持续发展的宏观目标融入城市发展规划与管理中的有效工具.综合生态足迹和人类发展指数的理论方法,构建了基于生态效率的城市可持续性评价模型.应用该模型对厦门市生态效率进行了时间序列分析:2000～2006年,厦门市生态效率呈现先平稳上升后陡然下降又小幅回升的波动性变化.厦门市人均生态足迹由4.279hm2增加至5.462hm2;人类发展指数由0.831增加至0.896;生态效率下降15.5%,资源效率下降15.7%,环境效率下降15.3%.研究表明,厦门市的可持续性经历了由可持续性次增强→可持续性增强→可持续性减弱→可持续性增强路径的转变,总体趋势仍是可持续性减弱.