Contrasting impacts of climate change across seasons: effects on flatfish cohorts

The Senegal sole, Solea senegalensis, is a species of flatfish that has several distinct cohorts of 0-group juveniles which use estuarine nurseries in summer and winter. The early cohort is more abundant and grows faster than the late cohort that stays in the nurseries during winter; however, climate warming may have an impact on the dynamics of this species’ juveniles. This study aimed to compare mortality, metabolic response and growth of S. senegalensis juveniles at different temperatures, reflecting present-day temperature (winter—12 °C; summer—24 °C) and future temperature (plus 3 °C) conditions, in estuarine nurseries in the southern European population. Mortality was low at 12 °C, being only 10 %, increasing to 30 % at 15 °C, 40 % at 24 °C and at 27 °C it hit 70 %. Metabolic rate increased steadily with increasing temperatures, yet it increased steeply from 24 to 27 °C. Thermal sensitivity was high for the temperature interval between 24 and 27 °C. Growth was very slow at 12 °C, at a rate of 0.03 mm day^?1, increasing to 0.22 mm day^?1 at 15 °C, and to 0.60 mm day^?1, at 24 °C. However, at 27 °C growth rapidly declined to 0.12 mm day^?1. Warming will be beneficial for the late cohort, resulting in a major increase in growth. However, the early cohort will not benefit from warming, due to high mortality and arrested growth, which clearly indicates that this species is under severe thermal stress at 27 °C. Thus, here we show, for the first time, that climate change may induce contrasting seasonal impacts on fish bio-ecology and physiology, namely in species with several cohorts over the course of the year. Phenotypic and/or genotypic plasticity may limit the impacts of climate change.     

Integrated hydrologic–economic decision support system for groundwater use confronting climate change uncertainties in the Tunuyán River basin,Argentina

This study presents an integrated hydrologic–economic model as decision support system for groundwater use and incorporates uncertainties of climate change. The model was developed with the Vensim software (Ventana Systems) for system dynamic simulations. The software permitted the integration of economic variables along with hydrologic variables, in a unified format with the aim of evaluating the economic impacts of climate change on arid environments. To test the model, we applied it in one of the upper Tunuyán River sub-basin, located in the Mendoza Province (Argentina), where irrigation comes from groundwater. The model defines the best mix of crops and the total land use required to maximize the total river sub-basin monetary income, considering as a limit the amount of water that does not exceed the natural annual aquifer recharge. To estimate the impacts of climatic changes, four scenarios were compared: the business as usual (with the number of existing wells) in a dry year with a temperature increase of 4 °C; the business as usual in a wet year with an increase in temperature of 1.1 °C; an efficient use of wells in a dry year and a temperature increase of 4 °C and an efficient use of wells in a wet year with a temperature increase of 1.1 °C. Outputs calculated by the model were: land use per crop, total sub-basin net benefit, total sub-basin water extraction, water extraction limit depending on river discharge and total number of wells required to irrigate the entire area. Preliminary results showed that the number of existing wells exceeded the optimized number of wells required to sustainably irrigate the entire river sub-basin. Results indicated that in an average river discharge year, if wells were efficiently used, further rural development would be possible, until the limit of 350 million m³ of water extraction per year was reached (650 million m³ for a wet year and 180 million m³ for a dry year). The unified format and the low cost of the software license make the model a useful tool for Water Resources Management Institutions, particularly in developing countries.     

National implications of a 50% global reduction of greenhouse gases, and its feasibility in Japan

This paper considers three questions concerning a low-carbon society. The first is the implication of a 50% reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2050. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007 (IPCC 2007b; http://www.gtp89.dial.pipex.com/chpt.htm), the suggested limit of increase in average worldwide temperatures is 2–3°C above the current level, but is this consistent with a 50% reduction by 2050? Second, when a 50% reduction in global emissions is envisioned, what is the level of reduction needed in Japan? Should the 50% reduction be uniform for advanced industrial countries and developing countries, or differentiated based on a country’s emissions? Third, how feasible are emission reduction targets in Japan? Even if the emission reduction target set for each country takes into account climate change impact and equity, whether the target is technically, or socially and economically, acceptable is another matter.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Characterizing heat stress on livestock using the temperature humidity index (THI)—prospects for a warmer Caribbean

There is an urgent need to mitigate climate change-induced heat stress in livestock and poultry in the Caribbean, given the deleterious effects it has on food and nutrition security. The temperature humidity index (THI) was used to assess the potential for heat stress on four types of livestock and poultry (broiler and layer chickens, pigs and ruminants) for three different agro-ecological locations in Jamaica. The THI was formulated specifically to each livestock type and was examined for 2001–2012 for seasonal and annual patterns of variability. Differences in THI were observed between summer (July to September) and winter (December to February) with some moderation due to agro-ecological location. Our results suggest that animals in ambient field conditions in Jamaica may already be experiencing considerable periods of heat stress even during the relatively cooler northern hemisphere winter months. Future patterns of heat stress relative to a 1961–1990 baseline were derived from a regional climate model when mean global surface air temperature is 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. At 1.5 °C, marked increases were noted in THI and almost persistent year-round heat stress is projected for Caribbean livestock. Conditions will be exacerbated at the higher global warming states. Possible response strategies such as cooling technologies are discussed.     

Crystallisation kinetics of mullite glass-ceramics obtained from alumina–silica wastes

Mullite-based glass-ceramics were produced from aluminium hydroxide sludge resulting from the anodisation process and waste glasses. Phase development for crystallisation of amorphous mullite was investigated between 900°C and 1200°C. The kinetic parameters such as activation energy of crystallisation and Avrami exponent for the samples were evaluated from differential thermal analysis curves using various heating rates (5–30°C) and particle size ranges ( < 45, 80–125 and 355–400 μm). The growth morphology parameters ‘n’ and ‘m’ are in the range of 2.5–5.4 and 1.5–4.4, respectively, indicating that bulk nucleation is dominant in mullite crystallisation followed by two- to three-dimensional growth of mullite crystals controlled by diffusion from a varying number of nuclei.     

Assessment of climate change simulations over climate zones of Turkey

Projected climate change over Turkey has been analyzed by using the reference (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate simulations produced by ICTP-RegCM3. Since examining Turkey as a single region could be misleading due to the existence of complex topography and different climatic regions, Turkey has been separated into seven climatic regions to evaluate the surface temperature and precipitation changes. Comparison of the reference simulation with observations was made spatially by using a monthly gridded data set and area-averaged surface data compiled from 114 meteorological stations for each climatic region of Turkey. In the future simulation, warming over Turkey’s climatic regions is in the range of 2–5 °C. Summer warming over western regions of Turkey is 3 °C higher than the winter warming. During winter, in the future simulation, precipitation decreases very significantly over southeastern Turkey (24 %), which covers most of the upstream of Euphrates and Tigris river basin. This projected decrease could be a major source of concern for Turkey and the neighboring countries. Our results indicate that a significant increase (48 %) in the autumn season precipitation is simulated over southeastern Turkey, which may help to offset the winter deficit and therefore reduce the net change during the annual cycle.     

Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~?25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.     

Beyond 1.5 °C: vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Global warming of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and a commensurate increase in global greenhouse gas emissions pose an unprecedented danger to human settlements, livelihoods and the sustainable development of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), yet these challenges present tremendous opportunities to rethink development pathways. The paper has two objectives. One is to critically review present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies employed by the state, private sector, non-governmental organisations, community-based organisations and households. The other is to discuss vulnerabilities and identify adaptation and resiliency strategies which are considered most applicable beyond the 1.5 °C limit. The Caribbean Region is the focus of the paper. A key finding of the paper is that temperature change above the 1.5 °C limit set by the Paris Conference of the Parties will make the natural and human systems of SIDS even more highly vulnerable than they are already. Another finding is that Caribbean states have implemented various innovative climate change adaptation strategies, but their relevance should the 1.5 °C target be exceeded, requires further exploration. The paper is useful to policymakers, decision-makers and finance agencies in search of practical solutions to avert the implications for Caribbean settlements, economies and ecosystems should the temperature warming exceed 1.5 °C.     

The ecological implications of land use change in the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, China

The alpine ecosystems in permafrost regions are extremely sensitive to climate change. The headwater regions of Yangtze River and Yellow River of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are on the permafrost area. Aerial photos of the Source Regions of the Yangtze and Yellow River taken in 1968 and three phases of TM images acquired from 1986, 2000, and 2008 were used to analyze the spatial alterations of the land cover and corresponding effects on the environment guided by landscape ecology theory. Firstly, land cover types were divided into three classes and 11 subclasses. Analysis results revealed the trends and magnitude of the eco-environmental changes in the regions over the past four decades and showed a continuous degradation of grasslands and the extension of desertification and salinization. Secondly, five landscape pattern indices (i.e., NP, MPS, PR, SHEI, CONTAG) commonly used in landscape ecological studies were calculated, and results showed that this region had become more centralized and diversified. Finally, the factors causing the degradation of alpine grasslands were analyzed. The regional climate exhibited a tendency toward significant warming and desiccation with the air temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year and relative stable precipitation over the last 40 years. And the temperature of permafrost in 0–20 cm soil layer obviously raised by 0.2–0.3 °C in the last 40 years. The combined effects of climate warming and permafrost variation were the major drivers for the changes of landscape in alpine ecosystems.     

Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations,possible impacts and adaptation

High population density, inadequate infrastructure and low adaptive capacity have made the urban population of Bangladesh highly vulnerable to climate change. Trends in climate and climate-related extreme events in five major cities have been analyzed in this paper to decipher the variability and ongoing changes in urban Bangladesh. An analysis of 55 years (1958–2012) of daily rainfall and temperature data using nonparametric statistical methods shows a significant increase in annual and seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in all five cities. A significant increase in climate-related extreme events, such as heavy rainfall events (>20 mm), hot days (>32 °C) and hot nights (>25 °C), is also observed. Climate model results suggest that these trends will continue through the twenty-first century. Vulnerability of urban livelihoods and physical structures to climate change is estimated by considering certainty and timing of impacts. It has been predicted that public health and urban infrastructures, viz. water and power supply, would be the imminent affected sectors in the urban areas of Bangladesh. Adaptation measures that can be adopted to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change are also discussed.     

Sensitivity of typical Mediterranean crops to past and future evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation in Apulia

The region of Apulia, which is located in the south-east tip of the Italian Peninsula, has a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot-dry summers. Agriculture, an important sector of its economy, is potentially threatened by future climate change. This study describes the evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation from the recent past to the next decades and estimates future potential impacts of climate change on three main agricultural products: wine, wheat and olives. Analysis is based on instrumental data, on an ensemble of climate projections and on a linear regression model linking these three agricultural products to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. In Apulia, precipitation and temperature time series show trends toward warmer and marginally drier conditions during the whole analyzed (1951–2005) period: 0.18 °C/decade in mean annual minimum temperature and ?14.9 mm/decade in the annual total precipitation. Temperature trends have been progressively increasing and rates of change have become noticeably more intense during the last 25 years of the twentieth century. Model simulations are consistent with observed trends for the period 1951–2000 and show a large acceleration of the warming rate in the period 2001–2050 with respect to the period 1951–2000. Further, in the period 2001–2050, simulations show a decrease in precipitation, which was not present in the previous 50 years. Wine production, wheat and olive harvest records show large inter-annual variability with statistically significant links to seasonal temperature and precipitation, whose strength, however, strongly depends on the considered variables. Linear regression analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation variability explains a small, but not negligible, fraction of the inter-annual variability of these crops (40, 18, 9 % for wine, olives and wheat, respectively). Results (which consider no adaptation of crops and no fertilization effect of CO₂) suggest that evolution of these seasonal climate variables in the first half of the twenty-first century could decrease all considered variables. The most affected is wine production (?20 ÷ ?26 %). The effect is relevant also on harvested olives (?8 ÷ ?19 %) and negligible on harvested wheat (?4 ÷ ?1 %).     

What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Even if climate change mitigation is successful, sea levels will keep rising. With subsidence, relative sea-level rise represents a long-term threat to low-lying deltas. A large part of coastal Bangladesh was analysed using the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model to determine changes in flood depth, area and population affected given sea-level rise equivalent to global mean temperature rises of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C with respect to pre-industrial for three ensemble members of a modified A1B scenario. Annual climate variability today (with approximately 1.0 °C of warming) is potentially more important, in terms of coastal impacts, than an additional 0.5 °C warming. In coastal Bangladesh, the average depth of flooding in protected areas is projected to double to between 0.07 and 0.09 m when temperatures are projected at 3.0 °C compared with 1.5 °C. In unprotected areas, the depth of flooding is projected to increase by approximately 50% to 0.21–0.27 m, whilst the average area inundated increases 2.5 times (from 5 to 13% of the region) in the same temperature frame. The greatest area of land flooded is projected in the central and north-east regions. In contrast, lower flood depths, less land area flooded and fewer people are projected in the poldered west of the region. Over multi-centennial timescales, climate change mitigation and controlled sedimentation to maintain relative delta height are key to a delta’s survival. With slow rates of sea-level rise, adaptation remains possible, but further support is required. Monitoring of sea-level rise and subsidence in deltas is recommended, together with improved datasets of elevation.

     

Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N₂O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO₂e ha^?1 y^?1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO₂e y^?1. Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.     

Glacier response to current climate change and future scenarios in the northwestern Italian Alps

We analyze longtime series of annual snout positions of several valley glaciers in the northwestern Italian Alps, together with a high-resolution gridded dataset of temperature and precipitation available for the last 50 years. Glacier snout fluctuations are on average negative during this time span, albeit with a period of glacier advance between about 1970 and 1990. To determine which climatic variables best correlate with glacier snout fluctuations, we consider a large set of seasonal predictors, based on our climatic dataset, and determine the most significant drivers by a stepwise regression technique. This in-depth screening indicates that the average glacier snout fluctuations strongly respond to summer temperature and winter precipitation variations, with a delay of 5 and 10 year, respectively. Snout fluctuations display also a significant (albeit weak) response to concurrent (same year) spring temperature and precipitation conditions. A linear regressive model based on these four climatic variables explains up to 93 % of the variance, which becomes 89 % when only the two delayed variables are taken into account. When employed for out-of-sample projections, the empirical model displays high prediction skill, and it is thus used to estimate the average glacier response to different climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, A1B), using both global and regional climate models. In all cases, glacier snout fluctuations display a negative trend, and the glaciers of this region display an accelerated retreat, leading to a further regression of the snout position. By 2050, the retreat is estimated to be between about 300 and 400 m with respect to the current position. Glacier regression is more intense for the RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios, as it could be expected from the higher severity of these emission pathways.     

Human well-being, the global emissions debt, and climate change commitment

Energy consumption is fundamentally necessary for human well-being. However, although increasing energy consumption provides substantial improvements in well-being for low and intermediate levels of development, incremental increases in consumption fail to provide improvements for “super-developed” countries that exhibit the highest levels of development and energy consumption. The aim of this note is, therefore, to quantitatively explore the global emissions debt and climate change commitment associated with the gap in energy consumption between the energy-saturated super-developed countries and the rest of the world. Adopting Kates’ identity, I calculate that elevating the current populations in the non-super-developed countries to the energy and carbon intensities of the United States is akin to adding the fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions of more than 15 United States to the global annual total, implying cumulative emissions of almost 4000 GT CO₂ from 2010 through 2050. The inevitability of continued emissions beyond 2050 suggests that the transition of non-super-developed countries to a US-like profile between now and 2050 could, by itself, plausibly result in global warming of 3.2 °C above the late-twentieth century baseline, including an extremely high likelihood that global warming would exceed 1.2 °C. Global warming of this magnitude is likely to cause regional climate change that falls well outside of the baseline variations to which much of the world is presently accustomed, meaning that a US-like energy-development pathway carries substantial climate change commitment for both non-super-developed and super-developed countries, independent of future emissions from the super-developed world. However, the assumption that all countries converge on the minimum energy intensity of the super-developed world and a carbon-free energy system between now and 2050 implies cumulative CO₂ emissions of less than 1000 GT CO₂ between 2010 and 2050, along with a less than 40 % probability of exceeding 1.2 °C of additional global warming. It is, therefore, possible that intensive efforts to develop and deploy global-scale capacity for low-carbon energy consumption could simultaneously ensure human well-being and substantially limit the associated climate change commitment.     

Analysis of observed and perceived climate change and variability in Arsi Negele District,Ethiopia

Climate change and variability has been detected in Ethiopia. Smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists and forest-dependent households are the most hit by climate-related hazards. They have to have perception of climate change in order to respond it through making coping and/or adaptation strategies. Local perceptions and coping strategies provide a crucial foundation for community-based climate change adaptation measures. This study was specifically designed to (1) assess households’ perception and knowledge in climate change and/or variability, and (2) establish the observed changes in climate parameters with community perceptions and climate anomalies. Purposive stratified random sampling method has been used to gather information from 355 sample households for individual interviews supplemented by group discussion and key informants interviews. The analysis of observed and satellite climate data for the study district showed that mean maximum and minimum temperature for the period 1983–2014 has increased by 0.047 and 0.028 °C/year, respectively. However, the total rainfall has declined by 10.16 mm per annum. Seasonally, the rainfall has declined by 2.198, 4.541, 1.814 and 1.608 mm per annum for Ethiopian summer, spring, autumn and winter seasons, respectively. Similarly, the mean maximum temperature of the study area had showed an increment of 0.035, 0.049, 0.044 and 0.065 °C per year for spring, winter, autumn and summer seasons, respectively. The observed climate variation has been confirmed by people’s perception. Considering what had been the existed situations before 30 years ago as normal, an increase in temperature, an increase in drought frequency, a decrease in total rainfall, erratic nature of its distribution and the tardiness of its onset had been perceived by 88, 70, 97, 80 and 94% of the respondents, respectively, at current time—2015. Deforestation as a casual factor of climate change and variability had been perceived by 99.7% of the respondents. This had been also confirmed by scientific studies as it emits carbon dioxide and is the main driver of climate change and variability. Indigenous knowledge, including climate predictions, has been used by people to implement their day-to-day agricultural activities. Therefore, science should be integrated with the perception and indigenous knowledge of people to come up with concrete solution for climate change and variability impacts on human livelihoods.     

Productivity of rainfed wheat as affected by climate change scenario in northeastern Punjab, India

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is grown as a rainfed crop in the sub-mountainous region of the Punjab state of India, with low crop and water productivity. The present study aims to assess the effect of climate change scenario (A1B) derived from PRECIS—a regional climate model—on wheat yield and water productivity. After minimizing bias in the model climate data for mid-century (2021–2050), evapotranspiration (ET) and yield of wheat crop were simulated using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, version 4.5, model. In the changed climate, increased temperature would cause reduction in wheat yield to the extent of 4, 32 and 61 % in the mid-century periods between 2021–2030, 2031–2040 and 2041–2050, respectively, by increasing water stress and decreasing utilization efficiency of photosynthetically active radiation. The decreases in crop water productivity would be 40, 56 and 76 %, respectively, which are caused by decreased yield and increased ET. Planting of wheat up to November 25 till the years 2030–2031 seems to be helpful to mitigate the climate change effect, but not beyond that.     

Agronomic adaptation strategies under climate change for winter durum wheat and tomato in southern Italy: irrigation and nitrogen fertilization

Agricultural crops are affected by climate change due to the relationship between crop development, growth, yield, CO₂ atmospheric concentration and climate conditions. In particular, the further reduction in existing limited water resources combined with an increase in temperature may result in higher impacts on agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area than in other regions. In this study, the cropping system models CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO-Tomato of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) were used to analyse the response of winter durum wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) crops to climate change, irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer managements in one of most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia). For this analysis, three climatic datasets were used: (1) a single dataset (50?km?×?50?km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975–2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2°C (centred over 2030–2060) and +5°C (centred over 2070–2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). Adaptation strategies, such as irrigation and N fertilizer managements, have been investigated to either avoid or at least reduce the negative impacts induced by climate change impacts for both crops. Warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate wheat and tomato phenology, thereby resulting in decreased total dry matter accumulation for both tomato and wheat under the +5°C future climate scenario. Under the +2°C scenario, dry matter accumulation and resulting yield were also reduced for tomato, whereas no negative yield effects were observed for winter durum wheat. In general, limiting the global mean temperature change of 2°C, the application of adaptation strategies (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) showed a positive effect in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change on productivity of tomato cultivated in southern Italy.     

Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

According to observed twentieth century temperature trends and twenty-first century climate model projections, the region that encompasses the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is identified as a climate change hot spot. We extend previous studies by a comprehensive climatology of heat waves in the EMME based on regional climate model simulations for the recent past and the end of the twenty-first century. A percentile-based definition of heat waves is used to account for local climatic conditions. Spatial patterns of several heat wave properties are assessed and associated with atmospheric circulation regimes over specific locations. To cover a range of possible future climates, we use three SRES emission scenarios. According to our results, all indices that characterize heat wave severity will strongly increase compared with the control period of 1961–1990. The northern part of the EMME could be exposed to increased heat wave amplitudes by 6–10 °C, and the southern part may experience 2–3 months more combined hot days and tropical nights. Heat wave peak temperatures will be higher due to the overall mean warming as well as stronger summer anticyclonic conditions. The projected changes will affect human health and the environment in multiple ways and call for impact studies to support the development of adaptation strategies.