A review of potential physical impacts on harbours in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change

Regional Environmental Change - The potential impact of climate change on port operations and infrastructures has received much less attention than the corresponding impact for beach systems....     

Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle

Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.     

Phosphorus fertilizer and grazing management effects on phosphorus in runoff from dairy pastures

Fertilizer phosphorus (P) and grazing-related factors can influence runoff P concentrations from grazed pastures. To investigate these effects, we monitored the concentrations of P in surface runoff from grazed dairy pasture plots (50 x 25 m) treated with four fertilizer P rates (0, 20, 40, and 80 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)) for 3.5 yr at Camden, New South Wales. Total P concentrations in runoff were high (0.86-11.13 mg L(-1)) even from the control plot (average 1.94 mg L(-1)). Phosphorus fertilizer significantly (P < 0.001) increased runoff P concentrations (average runoff P concentrations from the P(20), P(40), and P(80) treatments were 2.78, 3.32, and 5.57 mg L(-1), respectively). However, the magnitude of the effect of P fertilizer varied between runoff events (P < 0.01). Further analysis revealed the combined effects on runoff P concentration of P rate, P rate x number of applications (P < 0.001), P rate x time since fertilizer (P < 0.001), dung P (P < 0.001), time since grazing (P < 0.05), and pasture biomass (P < 0.001). A conceptual model of the sources of P in runoff comprising three components is proposed to explain the mobilization of P in runoff and to identify strategies to reduce runoff P concentrations. Our data suggest that the principal strategy for minimizing runoff P concentrations from grazed dairy pastures should be the maintenance of soil P at or near the agronomic optimum by the use of appropriate rates of P fertilizer.     

Contrasting home-range size and spatial partitioning in cryptic and sympatric pipistrelle bats

The extent of spatial partitioning in insectivorous bats, whose prey is patchily distributed and transient in nature, remains a contentious issue. The recent separation of a common Palaearctic bat, the pipistrelle, into Pipistrellus pipistrellus and Pipistrellus pygmaeus, which are morphologically similar and sympatric, provides an opportunity to examine this question. The present study used radio telemetry to address the spatial distribution and foraging characteristics of P. pipistrellus and P. pygmaeus in northeast Scotland, to test the hypothesis that coexistence between these species is facilitated through spatial segregation. We reveal large and significant differences in the spatial distribution and foraging characteristics of these two cryptic species. Individual P. pipistrellus home ranges were on average three times as large as that of P. pygmaeus, and they foraged for approximately an hour longer each night. Inter-specific spatial overlap was minimal (<5%) and core foraging areas of either species were essentially mutually exclusive despite the proximity of the two roosts. Inter-specific differences in range size were associated with the spatial dispersion of productive foraging sites within individual foraging ranges. P. pipistrellus foraging sites were highly dispersed, necessitating larger ranges. It is predicted that the spatial segregation revealed by the present study is a result of selection favouring the avoidance of competition in these species through differential habitat use.     

Modelling and assessment of South African elephant Loxodonta africana population persistence

The use of a quantitative population growth model to investigate the persistence of South African elephant populations is explored. The model provides quantitative assessments of population persistence and confidence intervals for estimated parameters based purely on population size estimates. The analysis supports the view that most of the larger populations in the region are secure. This view is further supported by a lack of density dependent effects in most of the recovering populations and the high population rates of increase observed. This predominantly positive prognosis is in contrast with that emerging from most of the rest of the African continent where the populations are under greater threat because of habitat restriction and direct human conflict. This preliminary assessment of elephant population persistence suggests that “viable” populations may lie between 400 and 6000 individuals. Although not inconsistent with information-greedy genetic and demographic models, the relationship between population growth versus genetic and demographic models should be further investigated. The implementation of a metapopulation management strategy towards these smaller populations is advocated. In addition, as all of the populations included in this analysis have been afforded some degree of protection since the 1920s, continued protection would be a prerequisite for their continued survival.     

Bayesian analysis of Jolly-Seber type models

We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pussila) for which we extend existing stopover models to allow for individuals to have different behaviour in terms of their stopover duration at the site. We demonstrate the use of reversible jump MCMC methods to derive posterior distributions for the model parameters and the models, simultaneously. The algorithm moves between models with different numbers of arrival groups as well as between models with different numbers of behavioural groups. The approach is shown to provide new ecological insights about the stopover behaviour of semipalmated sandpipers but is generally applicable to any population in which animals arrive in groups and potentially exhibit heterogeneity in terms of one or more other processes.     

What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Even if climate change mitigation is successful, sea levels will keep rising. With subsidence, relative sea-level rise represents a long-term threat to low-lying deltas. A large part of coastal Bangladesh was analysed using the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model to determine changes in flood depth, area and population affected given sea-level rise equivalent to global mean temperature rises of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C with respect to pre-industrial for three ensemble members of a modified A1B scenario. Annual climate variability today (with approximately 1.0 °C of warming) is potentially more important, in terms of coastal impacts, than an additional 0.5 °C warming. In coastal Bangladesh, the average depth of flooding in protected areas is projected to double to between 0.07 and 0.09 m when temperatures are projected at 3.0 °C compared with 1.5 °C. In unprotected areas, the depth of flooding is projected to increase by approximately 50% to 0.21–0.27 m, whilst the average area inundated increases 2.5 times (from 5 to 13% of the region) in the same temperature frame. The greatest area of land flooded is projected in the central and north-east regions. In contrast, lower flood depths, less land area flooded and fewer people are projected in the poldered west of the region. Over multi-centennial timescales, climate change mitigation and controlled sedimentation to maintain relative delta height are key to a delta’s survival. With slow rates of sea-level rise, adaptation remains possible, but further support is required. Monitoring of sea-level rise and subsidence in deltas is recommended, together with improved datasets of elevation.

     

Coastal retreat and/or advance adjacent to defences in England and Wales

Retreat and advance of shoreline position occurs naturally, and also as a result of defences which are constructed to prevent erosion and flooding. Retreat more commonly manifests itself down-drift of defences due to a sediment deficit causing the coast to become ‘set-back’. Advance normally develops due to sediment accumulation up-drift of a barrier inhibiting longshore drift, resulting in the coast becoming ‘set-forward’. Many examples of set-backs and set-forwards are recorded, but their location, number and cause is not known on a national scale. Using the Futurecoast aerial photographs, approximately 200 localities were identified as set-back or set-forward in England and Wales, with half situated in the Eastern and South East regions of England. Half of the total set-backs or set-forwards were on cliffed coasts, and half on low-lying coasts. Without local knowledge it is difficult to distinguish between set-backs and set-forwards. Set-backs often indicate higher retreat rates, thus threatening cliff-top infrastructure which requires defence upgrade and extensions, as well as raising maintenance costs. Monitoring set-backs is important for shoreline management, because as retreat continues, set-backs evolve and artificial headlands form and grow. This is reinforced by the shift from hard defence policies towards softer engineering approaches, managed realignment and limited intervention.     

Using a non-homogeneous Poisson model with spatial anisotropy and change-points to study air pollution data

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to study the rate at which a pollutant’s concentration exceeds a given threshold of interest. An...