环境风险评价与环境风险管理

环境风险评价包括源项分析、环境途径、风险评价和风险管理4部分.环境风险管理的目的是在行动方案效益与其实际或潜在的风险及降低风险的代价间谋求平衡, 它是政府的职责,包括制订风险管理计划和防范措施.     

化学物质的风险评价和风险管理

对有毒化学品管理的科学基础——风险评价和管理的核心问题——风险管理,及二者之间的关系进行了简要的论述。所涉及的问题有与风险评价和风险管理有关的基本概念,定性风险评价与定量风险评价的区别,健康风险评价和环境风险评价的终点及通用程序,以及风险管理的基本环节。      

基于区域环境风险评价的产业布局规划优化研究

随着城市化进程的不断推进,工业快速发展带来的各种环境风险给人们生活与发展带来了巨大威胁,因此必须采用合适的环境风险评价方法对区域内的风险源进行评估,并根据风险评价结果进行区域的风险管理以及规划布局调整工作,从而有效优化区域内的产业布局规划工作。本文首先对环境风险识别以及环境风险受体脆弱性进行了分析,在此基础上介绍了信息扩散方法的五个步骤,并给出了在环境风险评价指导下的风险管理以及产业布局调整。     

三舟溪滑坡在非汛期增加库水位下降速率对其稳定性的影响

以三舟溪滑坡为例,在前期有比较完整监测资料的基础上,分析滑坡变形破坏的历史资料,研究滑坡活动与库水位变化、降雨、地下水的响应关系;考虑滑坡的实际水力边界,根据滑坡地下水监测数据及滑坡前缘发生的次级滑动,对滑坡岩土体水力学参数和抗剪强度参数进行反演分析;基于反演分析,评价三舟溪滑坡稳定性现状,并预测在非汛期增加库水位下降速率条件下滑坡的稳定性,分析论证滑坡在非汛期增加库水位下降速率的可行性,为调整消落期库水位下降速率阈值提供科学依据。结果表明:三舟溪滑坡为动水压力与暴雨混合型滑坡,库水位变化控制着滑坡体稳定性走势,降雨则导致滑坡稳定性发生波动性变化;三舟溪滑坡目前处于潜在不稳定状态,非汛期增加库水位下降速率对滑坡稳定性影响不大,预测非汛期增大库水位日降幅条件下,滑坡整体仍为潜在不稳定。     

基于动态综合评价的区域环境风险差异化管理

借鉴灾害风险管理理论,运用“纵横向拉开档次法”和“时序加权平均算子法”构建了区域环境风险动态综合评价模型,提出了“风险评价-等级分区-差异化管理”的区域环境风险管理方法,并以河南省为案例研究对象,开展河南省18个市级单元环境风险的动态综合评价和“差异化”管理研究.结果显示：（1）郑州、许昌、漯河等市综合环境风险指数最高,分别为13.79、13.46和13.28,信阳、南阳和三门峡等市综合环境风险指数最低,分别为4.15、4.16和5.01;（2）采用系统分层聚类法将河南省18个市级单元聚为5类环境风险等级区,其中,郑州、许昌、漯河等属于高风险区;焦作、濮阳、鹤壁等属于较高风险区;安阳、开封属于中风险区;平顶山、商丘、周口等市属于较低风险区;洛阳、三门峡、南阳等市属于低风险区;（3）根据河南省各市环境风险等级及主导因素的差异,遵循高、较高风险区“重点控制、优先管理”、中低风险区“逐步控制、加强防范”的原则,提出了“差异化”的风险管理方案.研究结果表明,该方法不仅可实现区域环境风险动态综合评价,识别区域环境风险主要贡献因子,而且“差异化”的风险管理方案更符合地方经济社会环境协调发展的实际需求.     

上海市突发环境污染事故风险区划

环境风险区划是区域布局型环境风险管理及环境风险分区管理的重要手段.本研究在环境风险系统理论的指导下,借鉴“自上而下”和“自下而上”传统区划方对上海市突发环境风险进行区划研究.上海市突发环境风险区划中“自上而下”环境风险一级区的划分是依据上海市1990~2008年突发污染事故历史时空格局获得;而“自下而上”是通过构建上海市风险区划指标体系,在对指标进行概念模型量化的基础上,运用基于遗传算法的K均值聚类在最小区划单元进行聚类区划,并依据上海市政府宏观规划对聚类后的图斑碎块进行科学性和实用性调整,获得上海市突发环境污染事故风险亚区和小区;将上海市突发环境风险一级区及亚区和小区集成分析,实现上海市突发环境污染事故风险综合区划.结果表明:上海市突发环境污染事故风险区划包含2个风险一级区,5个风险亚区和21个风险小区,客观揭示了上海市突发环境污染事故风险的空间分布规律.针对上海市布局型环境风险和不同风险区提出相应的管理措施,为上海市综合减灾降险和风险管理决策提供科学依据.     

洪灾风险评估在规划环评中的应用

在规划环评中开展洪灾风险评价,应统筹考虑社会、经济的综合影响。就经济损失方面,需要根据洪灾风险评价的基本理论,结合规划区的实际情况,并基于AcView和MapInfo地理信息系统,合理确定洪水风险区、洪水淹没范围、损失率,进行风险损失和风险值计算,选择洪灾风险值较小的防洪规划方案。案例研究结果表明,博鳌规划区50 a一遇的防洪规划方案比20 a一遇的防洪规划方案的风险值要小近50%。因此,在博鳌规划区洪水设防上应按50 a一遇的标准设防为宜。     

区域洪水灾害风险快速评估研究——以上海市为例

根据洪水灾害形成机理,本文构建了一种快速评估区域洪水灾害风险的方法,即用致灾因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性且辅以地形因子来反映区域洪水灾害风险,并以上海市为例,对该区域洪水灾害风险进行了快速评估:首先根据降雨数据对致灾因子进行分析;然后综合灾情损失与致灾因子获得承灾体脆弱性程度;再根据水位信息对地形因子(DEM)进行危险性划分;最后应用GIS图层叠加技术,实现了上海市洪水灾害风险区划。结果表明:上海市闵行区、市辖区洪水灾害风险最高;宝山区、浦东新区和崇明县等沿海地区洪水灾害风险较高;奉贤区和金山区洪水灾害风险较低;松江区、青浦区、嘉定区等内陆地区洪水灾害风险低,其中松江区洪水灾害风险最低。     

三峡水库洪水调度对香溪河藻类群落结构的影响

以三峡大坝汛期洪水调度为契机,于2013年7月在香溪河开展原位监测,研究了洪水调度对藻类群落结构的影响.结果显示:在洪水调度期间香溪河水位变动范围是145.63~148.36m,河流中上游平均流速变化幅度小于河口平均流速变化幅度,中上游与河口的平均流速存在显著差异(P<0.05).调度前香溪河的藻类优势类群为蓝藻与硅藻,蓝藻所占比例高于硅藻,调度结束后,中上游水域硅藻占优势,河口区域蓝藻所占比例升高.香溪河水环境特征与藻类群落结构在洪水调度期间发生了显著改变,Shannon-Weaver指数趋于下降.研究结果表明:三峡大坝拦蓄洪水的过程显著改变了香溪河水环境条件,洪水顶托作用首先改变了支流的水文水动力学特征和水质状况,随后藻类群落快速变化响应了这种改变.洪水调度所营造的动态水位使得靠近大坝的支流生境受到强烈冲击和破坏,导致了藻类种类和生物量的变化;由此可见,水库的动态水位可改变支流的藻类群落结构,有助于抑制和延缓支流水华的发生.     

为不确定的未来实施洪水风险管理战略:荷兰,与莱茵河洪水共生存

无论从经济还是从自然保护角度,冲积平原和三角洲的社会压力都很大.随着经济的发展及大坝增高,由于预期的损失上升和更深的洪水,洪水风险在逐渐增加.全球变化,社会需求变化了,人们的观念也变化了,需要修订长期的洪水风险管理战略.而修订洪水风险管理战略应以柔性战略替代过去以加高大坝为主的刚性战略.柔性战略为主的洪水风险管理就意味着允许洪水临时性大面积泛滥,通过改变土地利用方式减少洪水灾害损失.这样的战略是基于风险管理和"与洪水共生存"的理念提出的,完全替代了过去的灾害控制观念.荷兰三角洲地区是世界人口密度最大区域之一,在这里,灵活的柔性洪水风险管理战略水文功能和"可持续的标准"被详细阐述和评估.     

Improving flood risk analysis for effectively supporting the implementation of flood risk management plans: The case study of “Serio” Valley

The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the assessment and delineation of flood risk maps. The latter should provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs), that should deal with all features of risk management: e.g. preparation, protection and prevention, comprising also the phase of the flood forecasting and warning systems, in addition to the emergency management. The risk maps, delineated through the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, fail to represent the information base that needed by stakeholders for selecting the suitable objectives and designing the appropriate mitigation actions for flood risk management. In the EDQ approach, the flood hazard and the potential damage degree maps are combined by means of a matrix to obtain a qualitative flood risk map. However, the performance of the risk matrix is not usually rigorous validated and, therefore, presents limits, such as subjective and not careful explained interpretation of rating and poor resolution, (due to range compression), that can produce errors in comparative ranking of risk areas. In this context, this paper proposes the FloodRisk approach that aims to improve the efficacy of flood risk map overcoming the limits of EDQ approach in supplying the knowledge base that allow to analyze costs and benefits of potential mitigation measures. However, the proposed approach is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. An application of FloodRisk procedure is showed on a pilot case in “Serio” Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been discussed focusing on the efficacy of the outcomes provided for the fulfillment of FRMPs. The results have demonstrated the ability of FloodRisk, respect to EDQ approach, to distinguish successfully different levels of vulnerability of exposure elements, thanks to the use of asset value and depth-damage curves, that allows a suitably evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. In this light, a successfully application of a cost-benefit analysis of FloodRisk approach on a portfolio of alternative mitigation actions, (i.e. structural and non-structural measurements), has been demonstrated on the proposed study case. However, FloodRisk requires additional information, e.g. water depths assessment and assets values, and it needs a proper analysis and communication of the uncertainty in its results. Although they still exist limitations that impede, at present, the FloodRisk application without an adequate understanding and a critical consideration of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability characteristics of the study area, considerations are supplied on how the utilization of this approach can be maximized in the light of the next flood risk maps revision due by December 2019.     

高山镇赤泥尾矿库溃坝风险评价研究

为研究河南高山镇赤泥尾矿库溃坝风险评价问题,首先分析了高山镇赤泥尾矿库特征和现阶段运行情况以及可能存在的溃坝风险因素,并确认该尾矿库是重大危险源;然后对汛期溃坝事故进行了故障树分析,在此基础上,建立了高山镇赤泥尾矿库溃坝风险评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定了各个评价指标的权重,运用多层模糊模式识别理论综合评价了高山镇赤泥尾矿库的溃坝风险等级。研究结果表明:赤泥尾矿库属于Ⅱ等库,存在轻微病害,基本具备安全运行条件,但应加强库区和坝体的日常管理和维护;汛期应采取有效的排洪措施及时降低赤泥库水位;建立了高山镇赤泥尾矿库环境应急管理体系,对尾矿库的风险预测和预防以及突发事故的应急行动有很强的指导作用,也可以结合GIS进行更高效的风险管理。     

基于信息扩散理论的福建省农业水灾风险评估

利用1978—2008年福建省农业水灾受灾和成灾面积数据,以灾情(受灾和成灾)指数反映水灾的影响范围,以成受比(成灾与受灾指数的比值)指数反映水灾影响强度,基于正态信息扩散计算方法对农业水灾进行风险评估,利用发生频次法对评估结果进行检验。结果表明:农业受水灾影响的风险概率随风险指数提高而下降;在相同风险指数下,成受比风险概率>受灾风险概率>成灾风险概率;受灾、 成灾、 成受比的平均风险概率分别为0.448 7、 0.480 0、 0.651 6,水灾对福建农业的影响比较频繁,影响范围和强度比较严重。风险评估结果与实际情况基本相符。     

基于GIS的长沙市洪涝灾害风险动态评估

运用GIS技术的空间分析与建模功能构建洪涝灾害风险评估模型,以长沙市地理基础数据、遥感数据、气象水文、社会统计数据为基础,从洪涝灾害的危险性、暴露性、敏感性三个角度出发,对长沙市洪灾风险进行动态评价.结果表明：与1994年相比,2010年长沙市洪灾敏感性有所增加,暴露性上升,洪灾风险增大;从空间分布上看,长沙市区及望城区由于地势平坦,湘江干流贯穿其中,加之经济发达,因而洪灾风险较高;而西部的宁乡县和东部的浏阳市洪灾风险较低;提出了有针对性的防洪措施.该评价结果与实际情况相符,可为洪灾风险管理与决策提供科学依据.     

基于公众对区域水灾感知的灾害风险沟通探讨

了解公众对区域水灾的感知情况,为开展有效的风险沟通和风险管理提供基础依据。本文从公众层面入手,在长江流域的上中下游选择重庆、江西、安徽作为调查样区,调查公众对当地水灾的感知状况,共访谈10余个区县的207位居民,每人的访谈时间都在40 min以上。据此分析公众区域水灾感知水平与灾害风险沟通间的关系。调查中发现,在风险沟通的渠道方面：电视是村民接受风险信息的主要渠道,很少有人通过报纸或网络了解水灾水情。在风险沟通的内容方面：在灾害中不同的角色因其职责、信息渠道等的不同,风险沟通的内容有别。水灾认知中,存在着由于期望差异、乐观侥幸心理等导致的认知偏差。在风险沟通的手段方面：对于受灾居民而言,可以通过水灾知识普及、加强心理辅导或心理治疗等方式减少水灾带来的负面影响。另外,需要引导公众认识到防洪科技的有限性,减少麻痹、盲从心理及其行为。     

FloodProBE: technologies for improved safety of the built environment in relation to flood events

The FloodProBE project started as a FP7 research project in November 2009.Floods, together with wind related storms, are considered the major natural hazard in the EU in terms of risk to people and assets. In order to adapt urban areas (in river and coastal zones) to prevent flooding or to be better prepared for floods, decision makers need to determine how to upgrade flood defences and increasing flood resilience of protected buildings and critical infrastructure (power supplies, communications, water, transport, etc.) and assess the expected risk reduction from these measures.The aim of the FloodProBE-project is to improve knowledge on flood resilience and flood protection performance for balancing investments in flood risk management in urban areas. To this end, technologies, methods and tools for assessment purposes and for the adaptation of new and existing buildings and critical infrastructure are developed, tested and disseminated.Three priority areas are addressed by FloodProBE. These are: (i) vulnerability of critical infrastructure and high-density value assets including direct and indirect damage, (ii) the assessment and reliability of urban flood defences including the use of geophysical methods and remote sensing techniques and (iii) concepts and technologies for upgrading weak links in flood defences as well as construction technologies for flood proofing buildings and infrastructure networks to increase the flood resilience of the urban system.The primary impact of FloodProBE in advancing knowledge in these areas is an increase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. performance) of new and existing flood protection structures and flood resilience measures.     

Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.     

衡阳市早稻洪涝灾害风险区划研究

依托GIS技术,采用自然灾害风险评价的理论和方法,建立早稻洪涝灾害风险评价模型,研究了衡阳市早稻洪涝灾害风险等级。结果表明:综合分析早稻洪涝灾害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力,绘制了衡阳市早稻洪涝灾害综合风险区划图,并分析了衡阳市早稻洪涝灾害风险区划的空间分布规律和特点。衡东县早稻洪涝灾害风险等级最高,祁东县早稻洪涝灾害综合风险等级最低。     

基于熵信息扩散理论的中国农业水旱灾害风险评估

农业水旱灾害是制约中国农业生产的重要因素。针对信息扩散理论模型存在的不足,论文构建了评估中国农业水旱灾害风险的熵信息扩散理论模型,依据1985-2013年数据资料,运用熵信息扩散理论模型对中国大陆30个省、市、自治区（重庆包含在四川中计算）的农业水旱灾害进行了风险评估,根据农业水旱灾害风险评估结果对中国农业水旱灾害风险进行了综合对比分析。评估和分析结果表明：中国面临着较大的农业水旱灾害风险压力;中国农业旱灾风险明显大于农业水灾风险;农业水旱灾害空间风险特征明显;农业水灾高中风险区域主要集中在长江中下游地区和东北地区,农业旱灾高风险区域主要集中在中国北部地区和东北地区,总体上看,中国农业水旱灾害的空间分布格局是南方地区易出现水灾,而北部地区易出现旱灾,东北地区面临水旱灾害重叠的双重压力。     

Bringing flood resilience into practice: the FREEMAN project

The recent shift in flood risk management concedes that floods cannot be prevented but the impacts on and vulnerability of the risk prone communities can be reduced. Beyond mere structural defence, an integrated risk management approach deploys a diversified set of measures that moderate the economic and social drivers of risk and improve risk governance. In this context, the concept of resilience gains on importance despite the many challenges that obstruct its implementation in management practice. This paper contributes to tackling these challenges and elaborates on opportunities and bottlenecks to bring resilience into practice based on a review of the flood risk management in three case studies in Europe: Flanders (Belgium), Niedersachsen (Germany) and Calabria (Italy). The paper summarizes insights gained on three components of resilience being – institutional interplay, flood management tools and risk communication. The work that has lead to this paper is done under the FREEMAN project (flood resilience enhancement and management), funded under the 2nd CRUE ERA-Net Funding Initiative.