冬季河南省若干城市室内灰尘中重金属的健康风险

大气沉降是室内灰尘的重要来源.本研究于2017年1—2月采集了河南省12个城市的室内灰尘样品共48个,并按照取样城市的空间分布探讨了重金属(Ni、Cu、Zn、Mn、Co、Cr、As、Ag、Cd、Pb)污染的南北差异(以黄河为界).运用地积累指数法对其进行污染评价.应用美国EPA人体暴露风险模型进行健康风险评价.结果表明,豫南城市室内灰尘中重金属除Pb以外平均浓度均显著高于豫北城市.豫南城市重金属平均浓度表现为Zn Mn Cr Ni Pb As Cu Co Cd Ag,浓度大小依次是306.7、249.2、223.3、116.9、55.7、41.6、30.3、7.0、1.8、1.3 mg·kg-1,而豫北城市重金属浓度表现为Zn Mn Pb Cr As Ni Cu Co Cd Ag,浓度大小依次是200.7、179.4、85.4、48.7、22.9、22.1、21.4、4.4、2.6、0.7 mg·kg-1.地累积指数结果显示Cd在豫南和豫北城市均是重污染和极重污染,而Ag在豫南城市是重污染和极重污染.豫南城市室内灰尘中4种致癌重金属的致癌风险大小依次为Cr As Ni Cd,6种非致癌重金属的非致癌风险大小依次为Zn Mn Cu Pb Co Ag;豫北城市室内灰尘中致癌重金属的致癌风险依次为Cr As Ni Cd,非致癌重金属的非致癌风险依次为ZnMn Pb Cu Co Ag.     

北京表层土壤重金属污染分布及大气沉降贡献

土壤重金属污染已成为影响城市可持续发展和生态环境安全的重大环境问题。对城市表土重金属污染状况以及来源进行系统分析具有重要意义。于2013年11月—2014年3月同步采集了北京城区及周边不同位置的大气沉降和0—10 cm表层土壤样品,采用ICP-MS测试了样品中主要重金属Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb和Zn的质量分数。利用富集因子和地累积指数法探讨了北京表层土壤重金属的污染状况,并对大气沉降贡献进行了定量表征。结果表明,北京表层土壤中重金属Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb和Zn的平均质量分数分别为0.5、76.8、51.3、25、35.2和133.4 mg·kg~(-1)。6种重金属质量分数都存在明显的"粒径递减"效应,即在2—63μm粒径段,表土重金属质量分数一般随粒径的减小而升高,粒径越小重金属在表土中的富集越明显。北京表层土壤中重金属Cr和Ni基本无污染,Cu、Zn和Pb轻微污染,Cd轻度污染;6种重金属都呈现不同程度的轻度富集(CdCuZnPbCrNi),均受自然源和人为污染源的共同影响。海淀区、朝阳区、东城区和西城区这4个区的交界区域存在Cd、Cu和Pb连片轻度、中度污染至偏重污染。朝阳区和东城区的交界区域、海淀区东南部、西城区西部、东城区西部存在Zn连片轻度污染至中度污染。北京表土中重金属Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Zn和Pb的大气沉降平均贡献率分别为17.4%、21.2%、14.6%、12.2%、16.0%和20.0%。北京表层土壤重金属污染主要集中在细粒径颗粒,表现出较强的空间分异性,并且受大气沉降不同程度的影响。     

包头市南海湿地土壤重金属污染评价及来源解析

包头市南海湿地位于中国西北地区的高纬度寒旱区,具有独特的河流湿地生态系统。以南海湿地土壤为研究对象,对湿地28个点位表层土壤(0~20 cm)中As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Mn、Pb、Zn 8种重金属进行检测分析,采用环境质量指数与Hakanson环境生态潜在风险指数相结合的方法,探讨土壤中8种重金属的累积污染现状及潜在生态风险,利用相关性分析、主成分分析和聚类分析区分了南海湿地重金属的来源,以期为南海湿地土壤环境保护提供理论依据。结果表明,As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Mn、Pb和Zn重金属平均值分别为75.18、1.27、56.98、111.18、87.67、622.71、54.10和209.33 mg·kg~(-1)。以包头市南海公园树木林土壤重金属含量为评价基准,南海湿地土壤重金属普遍超标,研究区域所有样方中As、Cd、Cu、Mn和Pb均超标,Cr有64.29%的样点超标,Ni有96.43%的样点超标,Zn有89.29%的样点超标。单因子污染指数表明,Cd处于中度污染;As、Cu、Pb和Zn处于轻度污染;Cr、Ni和Mn处于轻微污染。农田区和景观大道两侧处于重污染水平,鱼塘区和湿地植物区处于中污染水平。潜在生态风险指数表明,Cd处于强风险等级;As、Cr、Cu、Ni、Mn、Pb、Zn处于低风险等级。;研究区整体上都属于中等风险等级。来源解析表明:As、Cd、Cu、Ni、Mn的来源受到周边工业活动和农业活动的影响;Pb和Zn的来源与道路交通有关,Pb还受到工业活动的影响;Cr来源与土壤母质和农业活动有关。     

污灌区土壤-小麦系统重金属污染、迁移和积累--以开封市化肥河污灌区为例

以开封市化肥河污灌区为例，研究了土壤-小麦系统重金属(Cd、Pb、Cr、Cu、Zn、Ni和AS)污染、迁移和积累规律。结果表明，该区土壤重金属污染较为严重，所有样点的综合污染指数均大于1，其中Cd和AS污染最为严重，其平均质量分数远远超出了土壤环境二级标准值。在该区土壤上种植的小麦也表现出一定程度的重金属累积，但其茎叶和种子重金属质量分数差别较大；在所有种子样品中，Zn质量分数都未超标，AS、Cr和Pb质量分数部分到达了较高的残留水平，Cd质量分数则远远超出了国家食品限量卫生标准。依据重金属迁移累积率(βi)，小麦对As和Cr的吸收能力较低，而对Ni和Cd的吸收能力较高；在所有小麦样品中，除Cu外，茎叶对同一重金属的平均富集能力均大于种子。     

武汉三角湖复合垂直流人工湿地对重金属元素的去除研究

对武汉三角湖复合垂直流人工湿地进出水口中10种重金属元素（As、Ba、Cd、Cr、Cu、Li、Mn、Ni、Pb、Zn）去除进行了周年监测（2007年2月—12月）。人工湿地进水口重金属含量较低,无超标重金属元素。三角湖人工湿地进水口重金属元素含量排序为：Ba〉Mn〉Zn〉Li〉Cu〉As〉Pb〉Cr〉Ni〉Cd。三角湖人工湿地出水口对重金属去除效果排序为：Cd〉As〉Mn〉Pb〉Zn〉Cr〉Cu〉Ba〉Li〉Ni。研究表明复合垂直流人工湿地可以有效的去除重金属,对受污染水体水质改善和水生态系统恢复具有重要意义。     

太湖竺山湾及其主要入湾河流表层沉积物重金属污染及潜在生态风险评估

为了解太湖竺山湾及其主要入湾河流表层沉积物重金属污染状况,采用ICP-MS测定了13个采样点中Cr、Ni、Cu、Zn、As、Cd和Pb等7种重金属的含量,并采用地累积指数(I_(geo))法和毒性单位(TU)法对其污染特征及潜在生态风险进行了研究.结果表明,7种重金属Cr、Ni、Cu、Zn、As、Cd、Pb的含量分别是相应背景值的2.02、2.18、4.69、5.25、1.62、13.6和2.37倍,均表现出了显著的累计效应.地累积指数表明Cr、Ni、As和Pb总体上处于无污染到轻污染状态,Cu和Zn处于轻污染状态,Cd处于轻污染到重污染状态.结合相关系数分析和聚类分析,可推断Cd主要来自于农业面源,Cu、Zn、Cr、Ni和As主要来自于工业污染,Pb一方面来源于橡胶合成和PVC生产等行业,另一方面来源于交通运输中含铅燃料的使用;生态风险评估结果表明,研究区域内重金属对栖息在沉积物中的动物群有中等到严重程度的毒性风险,7种重金属毒性单位均值由大到小为NiCrCuZnAsPbCd.     

成都市城乡结合部大气水中重金属污染特征

通过对成都市城乡结合部的大气水进行定点周期性采集和监测,并采用火焰原子吸收光谱法和原子荧光光度法测定样品中表征大气水样受污染程度的重金属含量,包括Cu、Pb、Fe、Mn、Zn、Cd、Hg、As、Cr等9种重金属元素。分析结果表明,成都市城乡结合部大气水中主要污染重金属元素为Cu、Zn、As、Hg、Fe,其中Hg、As含量在秋冬季以及阴雨雾霾的特殊天气条件下尤其高,东郊监测最高As浓度为12.86mg/L,西郊监测Hg浓度高达17.55mg/L。从区域污染程度上说,西郊大气水重金属污染较为严重,东郊较之稍轻。     

淮河江苏段沉积物重金属的分布特征、来源解析及其生态风险

为了解淮河江苏段沉积物重金属的污染特征、空间分布及其生态风险,对其表层沉积物中重金属（Cd、Mn、Cu、Zn、As、Ni、Pb和Cr）的含量进行检测,利用相关性和主成分进行重金属来源分析,并采用富集系数与生物毒性不利影响对表层沉积物重金属进行污染评价.结果表明,除Cd与Cr外,Zn、Mn、As、Ni、Cu等重金属的含量均高于江苏土壤背景值.重金属含量空间分布差异明显,其中洪泽湖北部及围湖地区等地重金属污染状况最严重,来源可能来自城镇污水、工业废水等复合污染.富集水平排序为Zn>Mn>As>Ni>Cu>Pb>Cr>Cd,其中Mn、Zn富集程度最为明显.生物毒性不利影响评价总体处于中风险状态,主要贡献来源于Ni、Zn.除了Cu、Cd、Pb外,Ni、Zn、Cr、As重金属可能会对底栖动物产生危害作用.因此,淮河江苏段沉积物重金属整体表现为较重生态风险水平.     

重庆市主城区街道灰尘重金属的污染特征分析

分析了重庆主城区的7个功能分区的40个街道灰尘样品中的As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni、Pb、Zn等8种重金属元素的全量.结果表明,重庆市街道灰尘各重金属的平均含量均低于全国同类城市平均水平,不同功能区之间,Hg的变异系数达到显著差异;灰尘中各重金属(除Cr外)均以0—0.25mm粒径的质量分配量占绝对优势;以主城区深层土壤背景值为评价标准,重金属元素中,Hg、Cu、Pb达到了重污染,Cd、Zn、As达到了中度污染;Cr、Ni达到了轻污染;商贸区、工业区、居民区、文教区都达到了重污染,剩余功能区也都达到了中度污染.重庆市主城区街道灰尘中,Cu、Pb、Hg为主要污染重金属,居民区和商贸区的为主要控制功能区.     

焦作市采暖期降尘中重金属生态风险评价与源解析

随着工业经济的快速发展,降尘中重金属对环境的危害日趋严重,特别是在采暖期表现得尤为突出。焦作市是典型的燃煤城市,工业污染较为严重。为了解焦作市采暖期大气降尘量及其重金属的污染程度,在焦作市设置30个采样点,进行了降尘重金属的生态风险评价和源解析。结果表明:焦作市冬季降尘量平均值为20.51 t·km~(-2)·month~(-1),各种重金属元素质量分数在不同采样点的分布存在明显差异,其主要与降尘中重金属来源有关。降尘中重金属Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、As、Cd、Pb、Zn质量分数分别为68.90、9.58、40.22、68.07、35.47、8.11、157.15、1 809.58 mg·kg~(-1)。富集因子结果显示:Cd达到极强的富集程度;Zn和Pb呈显著富集;Cu和As为中度富集;Ni为轻微富集;Cr和Co的富集因子均小于1,说明其来自自然环境。潜在生态风险评价结果显示:Cd的潜在生态风险系数高达3 236.22,达到极强水平;As和Pb的最大潜在生态风险指数较高,达到中等水平;Cu和Zn的潜在生态风险指数最大值接近中等污染水平;其他重金属元素的潜在风险系数较小,生态危害程度不大。采用因子分析法对降尘中Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、As、Cd、Pb、Zn、Ca、Si、Al、Fe、K、Mg等14种元素进行源解析,提出4个主成分因子,分析结果表明:焦作市采暖期大气降尘主要来自于土壤尘,占24.89%;工业尘占19.33%;燃煤燃油尘占16.89%;道路扬尘占9.51%。     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Rapid,recurring, structured survey versus bioblitz for generating biodiversity data and analysis with a multispecies abundance model

A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

A palaeo-hydrogeological model for arsenic contamination in southern and south-east Asia

An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Threats to intact tropical peatlands and opportunities for their conservation

Large, intact areas of tropical peatland are highly threatened at a global scale by the expansion of commercial agriculture and other forms of economic development. Conserving peatlands on a landscape scale, with their hydrology intact, is of international conservation importance to preserve their distinctive biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintain their resilience to future environmental change. We explored threats to and opportunities for conserving remaining intact tropical peatlands; thus, we excluded peatlands of Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to plantations means conservation in this region can protect only small fragments of the original ecosystem. We focused on a case study, the Pastaza‐Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB) in Peru, which is among the largest known intact tropical peatland landscapes in the world and is representative of peatland vulnerability. Maintenance of the hydrological conditions critical for carbon storage and ecosystem function of peatlands is, in the PMFB, primarily threatened by expansion of commercial agriculture linked to new transport infrastructure that is facilitating access to remote areas. There remain opportunities in the PMFB and elsewhere to develop alternative, more sustainable land‐use practices. Although some of the peatlands in the PMFB fall within existing legally protected areas, this protection does not include the most carbon‐dense (domed pole forest) areas. New carbon‐based conservation instruments (e.g., REDD+, Green Climate Fund), developing markets for sustainable peatland products, transferring land title to local communities, and expanding protected areas offer pathways to increased protection for intact tropical peatlands in Amazonia and elsewhere, such as those in New Guinea and Central Africa which remain, for the moment, broadly beyond the frontier of commercial development.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Cost‐effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.