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1.
Meteorological-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes and their water quality; these impacts can be hydrologic,
thermal, hydraulic, chemical, biochemical, or ecological. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (California–Nevada) was
investigated here as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within lakes. The already
published trends of meteorological variables were used to assess the effects of global warming on Lake Tahoe dynamics. Records
from the period 1969–2002 show that Lake Tahoe has became warmer and more stable. A series of simulation years into the future
(i.e., 2000–2040) was established using flows, loads, and meteorology data sets for the period 1994–2004. Results of 40-year
simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Possible changes in water
quality because of global warming are discussed through inference, although these are not specifically simulated. Many existing
problems may be exacerbated due to climate change, yet extreme uncertainty depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change.
Therefore, shifts in water quality and quantity due to climate change should be integrated into contemporary planning and
management in an adaptive manner, and the research and development of impact assessment methodology should focus on approaches
that can handle extreme uncertainty. The general alternatives for lake management due to climate change are discussed. Depending
on the specific case, further intensive research is suggested to restore lake water quality. 相似文献
2.
Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last several decades. We evaluated ongoing climate
change in central Siberia between 1991 and 2010 and a baseline period, 1961–1990, and between 1991 and 2010 and Hadley 2020
climate change projections, represented by the moderate B1 and severe A2 scenarios. Our analysis showed that winters are already
2–3°C warmer in the north and 1–2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by
1–2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing
10–20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Hot spots of possible forest shifts are modeled using
our Siberian bioclimatic vegetation model and mountain vegetation model with respect to climate anomalies observed pre-2010
and predicted 2020 Hadley scenarios. Forests are predicted to shift northwards along the central Siberian Plateau and upslope
in both the northern and southern mountains. South of the central Siberian Plateau, steppe advancement is predicted that was
previously non-existent north of 56°N latitude. South of 56°N, steppe expansion is predicted in the dry environments of Khakasiya
and Tyva. In the southern mountains, it is predicted that the lower tree line will migrate upslope due to increased dryness
in the intermontane Tyvan basins. The hot spots of vegetation change that are predicted by our models are confirmed by regional
literature data. 相似文献
3.
Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Schaap Ben F. Blom-Zandstra Margaretha Hermans Christiane M. L. Meerburg Bastiaan G. Verhagen Jan 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(3):731-741
Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case
study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities.
We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss
of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence
and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055);
the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented
in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions
that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the
region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important
threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the
level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such
as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused
mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield. 相似文献
4.
Luís Costa Kirsten Thonicke Benjamin Poulter Franz-W. Badeck 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(3):543-551
Within the changing fire regimes of Portugal, the relative importance of humans and climatic variability for regional fire
statistics remains poorly understood. This work investigates the statistical relationship between temporal dynamics of fire
events in Portugal and a set of socioeconomic, landscape, and climatic variables for the time periods of 1980–1990, 1991–2000,
and extreme fires years. For 10 of 15 districts, it was possible to observe moderate shifts in the significance of fire drivers
for the first two decadal periods. For others, pronounced changes of the significance of fire drivers were found across time.
Results point toward a dynamic (perhaps highly non-linear) behavior of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers, especially
during the occurrence of extreme fire years of 2003 and 2005. At country level, population density alone explained 42% of
the inter-annual and inter-district deviance in number of fires. At the same temporal and spatial scale, the explanatory power
of temperature anomalies proved to explain 43% of area burnt. We highlight the necessity of including a broad set of socioeconomic
and landscape fire drivers in order to account for potential significance shifts. In addition, although climate does trigger
broad favorable fire conditions across Portugal mainland, socioeconomic and landscape factors proved to determine much of
the complex fire patterns at a subnational scale. 相似文献
5.
Projected future climate change will alter carbon storage in forests, which is of pivotal importance for the national carbon balance of most countries. Yet, national-scale assessments are largely lacking. We evaluated climate impacts on vegetation and soil carbon storage for Swiss forests using a dynamic vegetation model. We considered three novel climate scenarios, each featuring a quantification of the inherent uncertainty of the underlying climate models. We evaluated which regions of Switzerland would benefit or lose in terms of carbon storage under different climates, and which abiotic factors determine these patterns. The simulation results showed that the prospective carbon storage ability of forests depends on the current climate, the severity of the change, and the time required for new species to establish. Regions already prone to drought and heat waves under current climate will likely experience a decrease in carbon stocks under prospective ‘extreme’ climate change, while carbon storage in forests close to the upper treeline will increase markedly. Interestingly, when climate change is severe, species shifts can result in increases in carbon stocks, but when there is only slight climate change, climate conditions may reduce growth of extant species while not allowing for species shifts, thus leading to decreases in carbon stocks. 相似文献
6.
Plantation forests not only impact carbon and water cycles, but also affect biodiversity, livelihoods, and shape regional
economies. Each of these impacts differs across varying scales of analysis. This paper illustrates how forest, climate change
and hydrology debates play out in the context of the forest plantations of Australian black wattle (Acacia mearnsii) in the upper Palni hills of southern India. We outline the contradictory perspectives of different local groups regarding
the impact of plantations on catchment hydrology and water availability, and examine these in relation to changes in the regional
economy and rainfall patterns. Our analysis indicates that changes in these two factors have played a more significant role
than existing wattle plantations in affecting local and regional water availability. We suggest that ongoing debates regarding
forest plantation–hydrology–climate change relationships need to broaden their scope to include changes in regional rainfall
patterns and shifts in regional economic activity. This approach is likely to provide a more realistic assessment of plantation
forests in a dynamic regional context, and offer more resilient strategies for regional landscape and catchment management
under conditions of high variability in rainfall patterns. 相似文献
7.
Vegetation changes in Sahelian West Africa have been increasingly investigated since 1970 due to the catastrophic droughts in the early 1970s and 1980s and the following decades with below average precipitation. In most cases this was done by remote sensing and vegetation studies. In recent years, local knowledge of farmers and pastoralists about vegetation changes has been increasingly investigated. In this paper, information from different case studies in three West African countries (Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal) was used to analyse and evaluate vegetation changes in the Sahel. In total, data were analysed from 25 villages, where the local people were asked to mention plant species and qualify their present occurrence compared to the past. In total, 111 woody species were mentioned as having changed compared to the past, of which 79% were classified as having decreased or disappeared. For each single location 8–59 different woody species were mentioned. In most cases, these are valuable species of socio-economic importance. Only 11% of the species was classified as increasing or new (0–12 were mentioned per location), the later being mainly exotic species. Ten percent were categorised differently among villages. A comparison of local knowledge from different locations provide regional scale information on endangered species and thereby crucial information for making insightful priorities for assisted regeneration, reforestation and conservation strategies. 相似文献
8.
Vegetation and climate 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Over the last two centuries, man's activities have caused a 30% increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2, with continued increases seeming inevitable. This change in CO2 concentration will act on vegetation, both directly and indirectly through global climatic change. It is well established that, on a global scale, patterns of vegetation and climate are closely correlated. Such correlations indicate that climatic change will cause the distribution of vegetation to change. However, the use of correlations for predicting vegetation responses to climatic change is fundamentally unreliable because correlations have no mechanistic underpinning of causation. This paper outlines a mechanistic model for predicting the equilibrium state between current climate and vegetation. It is also used to indicate the sensitivity of global vegetation to the changed climate associated with a doubled CO2—greenhouse scenario. The interpretation of this static model is discussed in terms of rates and patterns of vegetation change. 相似文献
9.
María E. Ibarrarán Elizabeth L. Malone Antoinette L. Brenkert 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2010,12(3):365-388
Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the
degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological
events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity toward new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current
resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent
studies (Moss et al. in Vulnerability to climate change: a quantitative approach. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Washington
DC, 2001; Brenkert and Malone in Clim Change 72:57–102, 2005; Malone and Brenkert in Clim Change 91:451–476, 2008), the Vulnerability–Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience
of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events
that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the
sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and
the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability
of human resources, economic capacity, and environmental capacity. This paper presents two sets of results. First, we show
the application of the VRIM to determine state-level resilience for Mexico, building the baseline that reflects the current
status. The second part of the paper makes projections of resilience under socioeconomic and climate change and examines the
varying sources and consequences of those changes. We used three tools to examine Mexico’s resilience in the face of climate
change, i.e., the baseline calculations regarding resilience indices made by the VRIM, the projected short-term rates of socioeconomic
change from the Boyd–Ibarrarán computable general equilibrium model, and rates of the IPCC-SRES scenario projections from
the integrated assessment MiniCAM model. This allows us to have available change rates for VRIM variables through the end
of the twenty-first century. 相似文献
10.
P. M. van Bodegom J. Verboom J. P. M. Witte C. C. Vos R. P. Bartholomeus W. Geertsema A. Cormont M. van der Veen R. Aerts 《Regional Environmental Change》2014,14(3):933-942
Climate change impacts on individual species are various and range from shifts in phenology and functional properties to changes in productivity and dispersal. The combination of impacts determines future biodiversity and species composition, but is difficult to evaluate with a single method. Instead, a comparison of mutually independent approaches provides information and confidence in patterns observed beyond what may be achieved in individual approaches. Here, we carried out such comparison to assess which ecosystem types in the Netherlands appear most vulnerable to climate change impacts, as arising from changes in hydrology, nutrient conditions and dispersal limitations. We thus combined meta-analyses of species range shifts with species distribution modelling and ecohydrological modelling with expert knowledge in two respective impact studies. Both impact studies showed that nutrient-poor ecosystems and ecosystem types with fluctuating water tables—like hay meadows, moist heathlands and moorlands—seem to be most at risk upon climate change. A subsequent meta-analysis of species–environmental stress relations indicated that particularly endangered species are adversely affected by the combination of drought and oxygen stress, caused by fluctuating moisture conditions. This implies that adaptation measures should not only aim to optimise mean environmental conditions but should also buffer environmental extremes. Major uncertainties in the assessment included the quantitative impacts of vegetation-hydrology feedbacks, vegetation adaptation and interactions between dispersal capacity and traits linked to environmental selection. Once such quantifications become feasible, adaptation measures may be tailor-made and optimised to conserve vulnerable ecosystem types. 相似文献
11.
N. G. Smirnov E. A. Kuz’mina I. B. Golovachev T. V. Fadeeva 《Russian Journal of Ecology》2007,38(2):106-111
On the basis of abundant fossil and subfossil bone remains, the ecological and faunal role of the narrow-skulled vole in zonal
rodent communities of northern Eurasia is analyzed over the period from the Late Pleistocene to the present time. Special
attention is given to the correlated dynamics of relative abundance of Microtus gregalis and other rodent species in the course of transition from one zonal type to another and to specific features of this correlation
in the southern, middle, and northern parts of the species range. It is shown that distinctive dimensional and morphotypic
features of the two currently existing subspecies, Microtus gregalis major Ogn. and M. g. gregalis Pall., are the product of concordant development of the species and environmental conditions in the past 3000–4000 years
(transition from the Holocene optimum to the present-day climate and state of the natural environment).
Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 117–123.
The article was translated by the authors. 相似文献
12.
Panos Hadjinicolaou Christos Giannakopoulos Christos Zerefos Manfred A. Lange Stelios Pashiardis Jos Lelieveld 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(3):441-457
We present climate change projections and apply indices of weather extremes for the Mediterranean island Cyprus using data
from regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by the IPCC A1B scenario within the ENSEMBLES project. Daily time-series
of temperature and precipitation were used from six RCMs for a reference period 1976–2000 and for 2026–2050 (‘future‘) for
representative locations, applying a performance selection among neighboring model grid-boxes. The annual average temperatures
of the model ensemble have a ±1.5°C bias from the observations (negative for maximum and positive for minimum temperature),
and the models underestimate annual precipitation totals by 4–17%. The climatological annual cycles for the observations fall
within the 1σ range of the 6-model average, highlighting the strength of using multi-model output. We obtain reasonable agreement
between models and observations for the temperature-related indices of extremes for the recent past, while the comparison
is less good for the precipitation-related extremes. For the future, the RCM ensemble shows significant warming of 1°C in
winter to 2°C in the summer for both maximum and minimum temperatures. Rainfall is projected to decrease by 2–8%, although
this is not statistically significant. Our results indicate the shift of the mean climate to a warmer state, with a relatively
strong increase in the warm extremes. The precipitation frequency is projected to decrease at the inland Nicosia and at the
coastal Limassol, while the mountainous Saittas could experience more frequent 5–15 mm/day rainfall. In future, very hot days
are expected to increase by more than 2 weeks/year and tropical nights by 1 month/year. The annual number of consecutive dry
days shows a statistically significant increase (of 9 days) in Limassol. These projected changes of the Cyprus climate may
adversely affect ecosystems and the economy of the island and emphasize the need for adaptation strategies. 相似文献
13.
In this study we investigate how thermal power plants with once-through cooling could be affected by future climate change
impacts on river water temperatures and stream flow. We introduce a model of a steam turbine power plant with once-through
cooling at a river site and simulate how its production could be constrained in scenarios ranging from a one degree to a five
degree increase of river temperature and a 10–50% decrease of stream flow. We apply the model to simulate a large nuclear
power plant in Central Europe. We calculate annual average load reductions, which can be up to 11.8%, assuming unchanged stream
flow, which leads to average annual income losses of up to 80 million €. Considering simultaneous changes in stream flow will
exacerbate the problem and may increase average annual costs to 111 million € in a worst-case scenario. The model demonstrates
that power generation could be severely constrained by typical climate impacts, such as increasing river temperatures and
decreasing stream flow. 相似文献
14.
P. M. S. Jayathilaka Peeyush Soni Sylvain R. Perret H. P. W. Jayasuriya Vilas M. Salokhe 《Regional Environmental Change》2012,12(1):55-68
Climate change is the main global challenge of this century; it is therefore imperative to identify its effects on agriculture
in developing countries. This research makes spatial assessment of climate change effect on major plantation crops in Sri
Lanka, with emphasis on crop suitability of tea, rubber, and coconut. Geo-referenced maps of spatial and temporal changes
in crop suitability and production potentials are generated and compared. Data pertaining to six agro-ecological zones under
the study area are analyzed for a period of 1980–2007. Crop suitability maps are generated amalgamating yield maps and climatic
factors maps using AHP in multi-criteria analysis under two time frames of 1980–1992 and 1993–2007. Percent change in crop
suitability and crop yield classes is calculated based on five crop suitability and five crop yield classes during two time
frames. Dynamics of climatic parameters and crop yield are recognized using geo-referenced maps. The suitability maps of the
two time frames are compared to identify the changes with each crop in conjunction with changes in the prevailing climate
and yield. Geographic shift of suitability, yield, and climate classes are examined. Net gain or loss in crop production is
quantified. Long-term annual rainfall significantly decreased in mid-country wet zone, whereas the mean temperature of the
study area increased by 1.4°C. Results clearly showed that the climate and yield can be meaningfully related to the crop suitability
and management. 相似文献
15.
V. A. Romanenkov J. U. Smith P. Smith O. D. Sirotenko D. I. Rukhovitch I. A. Romanenko 《Regional Environmental Change》2007,7(2):93-104
The Model of Humus Balance was used to estimate the influence of climate effects and changing agricultural practices on carbon
(C) levels in soddy–podzolic soils in the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2050. The model was linked with a spatial
database containing soil, climate and farming management layers for identification of spatial change of C sequestration potential.
Analysis of relationships between C, soil texture and climate indicated that compared with a business-as-usual scenario, adaptation
measures could increase the number of polygons storing soil organic carbon (SOC) by 2010–2020. The rate of possible C loss
is sensitive to the different climate scenarios, with a maximum potential for SOC accumulation expected in 2030–2040, thereafter
decreasing to 2050. The effect is most pronounced for the arid part of the study area under the emission scenario with the
highest rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, supporting findings from the dynamic SOC model, RothC. C sequestration during the study period was permanent
for clay and clay loam soils with a C content of more than 2%, suggesting that C sequestration should be focused on highly
fertile, fine-textured soils. We also show that spatial heterogeneity of soil texture can be a source of uncertainty for estimates
of SOC dynamics at the regional scale.
Figures in color are available at 相似文献
16.
P. Smith J. U. Smith U. Franko K. Kuka V. A. Romanenkov L. K. Shevtsova M. Wattenbach P. Gottschalk O. D. Sirotenko D. I. Rukhovich P. V. Koroleva I. A. Romanenko N. V. Lisovoi 《Regional Environmental Change》2007,7(2):105-119
Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change
on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future
land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley
Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil–Climate–Yield model, and land use was
determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal
management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation
could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30–44% compared to the
business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area
within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers. 相似文献
17.
Rupert Seidl Mart-Jan Schelhaas Marcus Lindner Manfred J. Lexer 《Regional Environmental Change》2009,9(2):101-119
To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale
we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model
was used to upscale stand level damages by bark beetles as simulated in the hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.41. Comparing
EFISCEN simulations including the new bark beetle disturbance module against a 15-year damage time series for Austria showed
good agreement at province level (R2 between 0.496 and 0.802). A scenario analysis of climate change impacts on bark beetle-induced damages in Austria’s Norway
spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] forests resulted in a strong increase in damages (from 1.33 Mm3 a−1, period 1990–2004, to 4.46 Mm3 a−1, period 2095–2099). Studying two adaptive management strategies (species change) revealed a considerable time-lag between
the start of adaptation measures and a decrease in simulated damages by bark beetles. 相似文献
18.
Ximena Rueda 《Regional Environmental Change》2010,10(3):175-189
The southern Yucatán has been identified as a deforestation hot spot. Land-change studies document the extent of forest loss
at a regional scale, and case studies provide insights into the drivers of deforestation at the household level. Those studies
have paid minimal attention to sub-regional analysis, especially to discrete land-management units above the household level.
This analysis of upland forest change addresses the range of variation in deforestation among 96 ejidos (communal lands) and the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, the two dominant land-tenure and land-management units in the region.
Satellite imagery, census, and land-tenure data are used to establish the extent and location of deforestation patterns, and
multivariate techniques are employed to identify biophysical and socioeconomic variables that explain such patterns. Results
show that, for the 1984–1993 period, deforestation in the southern Yucatán was not as prevalent as implied by its hot spot
designation. Three clusters of deforestation are identified. A logistic regression analysis establishes that size of forest
holdings, population growth, and location in the precipitation gradient correlate with ejidos that experienced higher deforestation rates than the rest of the land-tenure units. For the 1993–2000 period, conservation
programs and changes in the economic context of this “hollow frontier” contributed to reduce deforestation rates and extent.
This analysis illustrates the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of much tropical forest change and caution that it should bring
to simple formulations of modeling this change and prescribing policies to control it. 相似文献
19.
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects — the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial–temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. 相似文献
20.
Nature and fate of Hudson Bay permafrost 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Two aspects of the permafrost of the Hudson Bay region are examined. The first is the climatological conditions that support
permafrost especially along the southwestern shore of Hudson Bay. The second is the fate of the permafrost using recent climate
change scenarios. The continuous permafrost along the shores of southwestern Hudson Bay is examined from a climatological
perspective. Two hypotheses are explored to explain the presence of continuous permafrost in this region in spite of the relatively
"warm" local climate. Possible errors in the calculation of thawing degree days and the asymmetries in frozen and unfrozen
soil thermal conductivities are successively examined. Only the second hypothesis is likely to explain the presence of permafrost
in southwestern Hudson Bay. Sophisticated climate models are used to assess the potential change in permafrost distribution
in the Hudson Bay region. Nine simulations using three different versions of the Canadian Centre of Climate Modelling and
Analysis (CCCma) general circulation model are used to project permafrost distribution. Two surface temperature thresholds,
–5 and –10 °C, are used to diagnose permafrost grid points. All simulations, including those that include reduction of CO2 emissions, showed at least a 50% reduction of permafrost by 2100 using these temperature thresholds.
Electronic Publication 相似文献