Forward planning to maintain the attractiveness of coastal areas: Choosing between seawalls and managed retreat

This paper aims to inform forward-planning policies in the face of sea-level rise due to climate change, focussing on the choice of reducing the vulnerability of property at risk through managed retreat or protection behind seawalls. This adaptation is important not only to reduce the cost of future damage but also to maintain the beaches which are an attractive feature for tourism, of vital importance for coastal areas. Some 421 residents with main and secondary homes were surveyed in Hyères-les-palmiers in the Var department (Southeast France). The survey sought to compare the willingness of residents to contribute financially to building a seawall or to relocating sea-front property. Preferences depend both on common variables and variables specific to the proposed arrangement. They reveal common concerns focused on effectiveness and the determining factor of property ownership. The results also show some awareness of the long-term advantages of managed retreat, despite some opposition from older people, who are also more sceptical about the reality of the risk incurred.     

Fostering coastal resilience to climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh,Brazil, Cameroon and Uruguay: a cross-country comparison

This paper describes a comparative study of four different cases on vulnerability, hazards and adaptive capacity to climate threats in coastal areas and communities in four developing countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, Cameroon and Uruguay. Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR), storm surges and flooding due to their (i) exposure, (ii) concentration of settlements, many of which occupied by less advantaged groups and (iii) the concentration of assets and services seen in these areas. The objective of the paper is twofold: (i) to evaluate current evidence of coastal vulnerability and adaptive capacity and (ii) to compare adaptation strategies being implemented in a sample of developing countries, focusing on successful ones. The followed approach for the case evaluation is based on (i) documenting observed threats and damages, (ii) using indicators of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptive capacity status and (iii) selecting examples of successful responses. Major conclusions based on cross-case comparison are (a) the studied countries show different vulnerability, adaptive capacity and implementation of responses, (b) innovative community-based (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and (c) early warning systems are key approaches and tools to foster climate resilience. A recommendation to foster the resilience of coastal communities and services is that efforts in innovative adaptation strategies to sea-level rise should be intensified and integrated with climate risk management within the national adaption plans (NAPAs) in order to reduce the impacts of hazards.     

Coastal flooding,climate change and environmental justice: identifying obstacles and incentives for adaptation in two metropolitan Boston Massachusetts communities

We explored the possible future impacts of increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise and the potential adaptation responses of two urban, environmental justice communities in the metropolitan Boston area of Massachusetts. East Boston is predominantly a residential area with some industrial and commercial activities, particularly along the coastal fringe. Everett, a city to the north of Boston, has a diversified industrial and commercial base. While these two communities have similar socioeconomic characteristics, they differ substantially in the extent to which residents would be impacted by increased coastal flooding. In East Boston, a large portion of residents would be flooded, while in Everett, it is the commercial/industrial districts that are primarily vulnerable. Through a series of workshops with residents in each community, we found that the target populations do not have an adaptation perspective or knowledge of any resources that could assist them in this challenge. Furthermore, they do not feel included in the planning processes within their communities. However, a common incentive for both communities was an intense commitment to their communities and an eagerness to learn more and become actively engaged in decisions regarding climate change adaptation. The lessons that can be applied to other studies include 1) images are powerful tools in communicating concepts, 2) understanding existing cultural knowledge and values in adaptation planning is essential to the planning process and 3) engaging local residents at the beginning of the process can create important educational opportunities and develop trust and consensus that is necessary for moving from concept to implementation.     

辽宁沿海地区旅游资源评价研究

海滨浴场、海滨风光和历史遗迹是辽宁沿海旅游资源的主体。文章用层次分析法对辽宁沿海主要旅游景区 (点 )进行了评价 ,并提出了其旅游资源开发的框架思路。     

Sea-Level Rise: Implications for Water Resources Management

Globally, sea level has been rising for more than the last one hundred years, and is expected to do so into the foreseeable future, and at an accelerating rate. The direct influences of sea-level rise on water resources come principally from the following: new or accelerated coastal erosion; more extensive coastal inundation and higher levels of sea flooding; increases in the landward reach of sea waves and storm surges; seawater intrusion into surface waters and coastal aquifers; and further encroachment of tidal waters into estuaries and coastal river systems. The impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be felt disproportionately in certain areas, reflecting both natural and socio-economic factors that enhance the levels of risks. The opportunity to learn about the likely nature of, and most appropriate adaptation to, the anticipated impacts of sea-level rise on water resources is arguably best developed in rapidly subsiding coastal areas, and especially in low-lying deltas where subsidence rates are typically much larger than the historic rise in global mean sea level. Significantly, such areas are often major centres of population and of economic activity, thereby highlighting the human dimensions of sea-level rise. Sound management of the risks to water resources associated with sea-level rise requires enhancing adaptive capacity, mainstreaming adaptation, harmonizing responses to extreme events, variability and long-term change and strengthening regional and international cooperation and coordination. In this regard, the policies and initiatives of international organisations are not always entirely consistent with the needs of developing countries.     

Does planned retreat matter? Investigating land use change under the impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Coastal regions worldwide are during the process of rapid urban expansion. However, expanded urban settlements in land-sea interfaces have been faced with unprecedented threats from climate change related hazards. Adaptation to coastal hazards has received increasing attention from city managers and planners. Adaptation and land management practices are largely informed by remote sensing and land change modeling. This paper establishes a framework that integrates land change analysis, coastal flooding, and sea level rise adaptation. Multilayer perceptron neural network, similarity learning, and binary logistic regression were applied to analyze spatiotemporal changes of residential, commercial, and other built-up areas in Bay County, Florida, USA. The prediction maps of 2030 were produced by three models under four policy scenarios that included the population relocation strategy. Validation results reveal that three models return overall acceptable accuracies but generate distinct landscape patterns. Predictions indicate that planned retreat of residents can greatly reduce urban vulnerability to sea level rise induced flooding. While managed realignment of the coast brings large benefits, the paper recommends different mixes of adaptation strategies for different parts of the globe, and advocates the application of reflective land use planning to foster a more disaster resilient coastal community.     

Assessing the Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Extreme Storms: The Case of Revere,MA., USA

Climate change may affect the frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution of severe coastal storms. Concurrent sea-level rise would raise the baseline of flooding during such events. Meanwhile, social vulnerability factors such as poverty and disability hinder the ability to cope with storms and storm damage. While physical changes are likely to remain scientifically uncertain into the foreseeable future, the ability to mitigate potential impacts from coastal flooding may be fostered by better understanding the interplay of social and physical factors that produce human vulnerability. This study does so by integrating the classic causal model of hazards with social, environmental, and spatial dynamics that lead to the differential ability of people to cope with hazards. It uses Census data, factor analysis, data envelopment analysis, and floodplain maps to understand the compound social and physical vulnerability of coastal residents in the city of Revere, MA, USA. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Values,rules and knowledge: Adaptation as change in the decision context

Responding to global change represents an unprecedented challenge for society. Decision makers tend to address this challenge by framing adaptation as a decision problem, whereby the responses to impacts of change are addressed within existing decision processes centred on defining the decision problem and selecting options. However, this ‘decision-making perspective’ is constrained by societal values and principles, regulations and norms and the state of knowledge. It is therefore unsuitable for addressing complex, contested, cross-scale problems. In this paper we argue that simply broadening the decision-making perspective to account for institutions and values is not enough. We contend the decision-making perspective needs to be connected with a broader ‘decision-context perspective’ that focuses on how the societal system of decision processes affects the manner in which a particular problem is addressed. We describe the decision context as an interconnected system of values, rules and knowledge (vrk). The interaction of systems of vrk both creates and limits the set of practical, permissible decisions; the types of values, rules and knowledge that influence the decision and the capacity for change and transformation in the decision context. We developed a framework to analyse the interactions between values, rules and knowledge and their influence on decision making and decision contexts of adaptation initiatives, and applied it retrospectively to three projects on adaptation to sea-level rise. Our analysis revealed: (1) specific examples of how interactions between vrk systems constrained existing framings of decision making and the development of options for coastal adaptation; (2) limitations in the adaptive management strategies that underpinned the projects and (3) how the linked systems of vrk can allow adaptation practitioners to structure adaptation as a process of co-evolutionary change that enables a broader set of social issues and change processes to be considered. Adaptation projects that focus on the decision context represent a pragmatic alternative to existing decision-focused adaptation. By using the vrk model to diagnose constraints in decision processes, we show how the reframing of adaptation initiatives can reveal new approaches to developing adaptation responses to complex global change problems.     

辽河口红海滩天津厚蟹种群时空分布特征研究

红海滩是辽河口重要的旅游资源,由翅碱蓬（Suaeda heteroptera）群落集群生长而成,然近年明显退化。初步调查发现天津厚蟹（Helice tientsinensis）摄食可显著影响翅碱蓬萌发和生长,故探究天津厚蟹的分布特征对阐明红海滩退化具有重要意义。本研究通过陷阱捕获法,对辽河口红海滩的天津厚蟹时空分布特征进行了调查。研究结果表明:天津厚蟹密度具有差异显著的月动态变化特征,表现为7月> 8月> 6月> 9月> 10月> 5月> 11月;随着从近岸潮沟向入海口靠近,天津厚蟹分布密度具有逐渐降低的趋势;受食物来源与天敌庇护场所影响,天津厚蟹在不同植被生境中的分布密度为:翅碱蓬-芦苇生态交错区>芦苇群落>翅碱蓬群落>光滩-翅碱蓬生态交错区>光滩。本研究为辽河口红海滩湿地资源的保护与管理提供了数据支持。     

Coastal flood protection: What perspective in a changing climate? The THESEUS approach

Coastal areas are vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism to mention some key sectors. There are already many coastal problems including erosion, flood risk and long-term habitat deterioration. As economies continue to develop the asset base at risk will grow, while accelerating climate change will increase the likelihood of damaging extreme events, as well as accelerate habitat decline. Existing coastal management and defence approaches are not well tuned to these challenges as they assume a static situation.THESEUS project is developing a systematic approach to delivering both a low-risk coast for human use and healthy habitats for evolving coastal zones subject to multiple change factors. The project examines innovative mitigation and adaptation technologies and integrate the best of these technical measures in a strategic policy context through overarching guidelines. THESEUS activities are carried out within a multidisciplinary framework using 8 study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments such as deltas, estuaries and wetlands, where many large cities and industrial areas are located.This paper describes THESEUS approach, and specifically: the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consquence model for coastal risk assessment; the engineering, social, economic and ecological mitigation measures under analysis; the participatory approach with end users and coastal authorities for the selection and identification of the appropriate defence strategy to be planned in sudy sites.     

Participatory adaptation planning and costing. Applications in agricultural adaptation in western Kenya

Adaptation to climate change is an important theme in the strategy and policy of institutions around the world. Billions of dollars are allocated every year, based on cost estimates of actions to cope with, or benefit from the impacts of climate change. Costing adaptation, however, is complex, involving multiple actors with differing values and a spectrum of possible adaptation strategies and pathways. Currently, expert driven, top-down approaches dominate adaptation costing in practice. These approaches are subject to misallocation, with global funds not always reaching vulnerable communities in most need. This paper introduces an analytical framework called Participatory Social Return on Investment (PSROI), which provides a structured framework for multi-stakeholder planning, selection and valuation of appropriate methods of adaptation. The broader economic, social and environmental impacts of these adaptation actions are explored and valued through a participatory process. PSROI is strength-based, building local capacity and generating stakeholder buy-in. The financial valuation generated provides an additional tool for examining and prioritizing adaptation actions based on their impact. Results from a pilot of the PSROI framework in a smallholder farming community in Western Kenya provide empirical evidence for the difference between expert driven desk-based and ground-based cost estimates that involve local communities. There was an approximate 70 % reduction in the valuation of an agroforestry intervention, selected by the local community, when compared between the desk-based valuation and that of the local community, using primary field data. This reduced expectation of the desk-based PSROI is justified by coherent explanations such as lack of knowledge about the intervention, misconception about the potential costs and benefits, and the risk-averse nature of the farmers. These and other important insights are fundamental for planning and decision-making, as well as appropriate targeting and delivery of funding for adaptation.     

Implementing climate variability adaptation at the community level in the Amazon floodplain

The need to design measures for adapting to climate change is increasingly recognized as important and has encouraged research on the role of local ecological knowledge (LEK) in supporting adaptation. Studies of how LEK can help adapt to increasing climate variability remain limited. This article develops an approach through which the process of adaptation can be tracked at a community level. We describe how community residents in the Amazon floodplains incorporate natural hydrologic and ecological processes into their management systems to optimize ecosystem functioning.We describe two case studies where LEK is used as a resource by small-scale fisher-farmers in the Amazon floodplains to adapt to the increasing impacts on their livelihoods generated by changing climate patterns. This article draws on local histories and seeks to identify the critical factors that either facilitate or impede household ability to reduce their vulnerability. We found that the LEK of small fisher-farmers has facilitated the adaptation of a resource management system to optimize production across a broad range of floodplain habitats and conditions. There are, however, significant challenges to operationalizing these approaches, including an absence of systematically collected data on adaptation strategies and outcomes. In addition, local people must be integrated into policymaking processes so their knowledge can contribute to the design of locally appropriate policies for adapting to the impacts of climate related events.     

Predictors of local support for a seawater desalination plant in a small coastal community

Seawater desalination is increasingly being pursued to address freshwater shortages. In California, multiple coastal seawater desalination facilities have been proposed to diversify water portfolios and to increase reliability of water supply. This paper explores local residents support for a newly constructed desalination plant in Carlsbad, a small coastal community in Southern California. The plant is the first high-capacity desalination facility in California and started operation in December 2015. We found strong support for the desalination plant as 71.9% of residents reported support for the plant. Only 15.5% of respondents were undecided indicating that residents had a clear opinion on the plant. Perceptions about local water resources were significant predictors of support. Attitudes may change over time if the state of water resources and perceptions thereof change. Expected outcomes of the plant also predicted support. An increase in available drinking water was a positive predictor, while environmental and social impacts were negative predictors. Economic impacts in terms of an increase in the price of water did not influence local support. Ethnicity and age were the only socio-demographic variables that had an effect on support suggesting that the socio-demographic profile of a community may not be a good predictor of community support or rejection of this water supply technology.     

Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change: Can the IPCC Technical Guidelines be applied?

This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual and empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation embraces more than selecting one of the "technical" options to respond to sea-level rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective, an expanded adapta-tion framework involving four steps is suggested, including (i) information collection and awareness raising; (ii) planning and design; (iii) implementation; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation. The incom-plete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes and practices and takes a broader view on the subject.     

基于数学模型的海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响

气候变化导致的海平面上升对沿海地区构成极大的威胁,海平面上升已经成为全球重要的环境问题,受到社会各界的高度重视。研究建立了一维动态潮流-含氯度数学模型,计算了海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响,结果显示:250 mg/L的咸度线随着上游来水频率的增大,咸潮上溯距离明显增大;一定上游来水条件下,随着海平面的上升,咸潮上溯界线向上游方向移动显著。并详细计算了代表口门在海平面上升10 cm、30 cm和60 cm的情况下,咸潮界线的具体上移距离,以期给三角洲地区城市供水、农业灌溉引水等提供理论指导,减轻海平面上升危害,以确保21世纪中国沿海地区资源、环境、经济和社会的可持续发展。     

厚覆盖区1：25万区域地质调查工作方法研究

通过1：25万杭州市幅厚覆盖区第四纪研究和填图实践，初步总结出“以气候旋回及基准面旋回等时性理论为基础，从古气候旋回宏观识别标志研究人手，以标准孔为基准点外延扩展，在反复认识与验证的基础上，进行层序地层划分，建立剖面等时格架，制作高精度对比的剖面图及准瞬时岩相古地理图”的研究方法，以及“从古岸线沉积物研究人手，充分运用非正式岩石地层单位的表示方法，结合考古及地方志，填绘出具岩石空间分布、海平面升降信息、古文化遗址、浅表含水层展布及河流与海岸线变迁”的非常规填图方法。提高了本区第四纪地层研究精度，使地质图具有强烈的地区特色。拓宽了区调工作的服务领域。并为沿海厚覆盖区的区域地质调查另辟了一条新思路。     

Risks of sea level rise to disadvantaged communities in the United States

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) pose risks to coastal communities around the world, but societal understanding of the distributional and equity implications of SLR impacts and adaptation actions remains limited. Here, we apply a new analytic tool to identify geographic areas in the contiguous United States that may be more likely to experience disproportionate impacts of SLR, and to determine if and where socially vulnerable populations would bear disproportionate costs of adaptation. We use the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to identify socially vulnerable coastal communities, and combine this with output from a SLR coastal property model that evaluates threats of inundation and the economic efficiency of adaptation approaches to respond to those threats. Results show that under the mid-SLR scenario (66.9 cm by 2100), approximately 1,630,000 people are potentially affected by SLR. Of these, 332,000 (～20%) are among the most socially vulnerable. The analysis also finds that areas of higher social vulnerability are much more likely to be abandoned than protected in response to SLR. This finding is particularly true in the Gulf region of the United States, where over 99% of the most socially vulnerable people live in areas unlikely to be protected from inundation, in stark contrast to the least socially vulnerable group, where only 8% live in areas unlikely to be protected. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the equity and environmental justice implications of SLR in climate change policy analysis and coastal adaptation planning.     

Tidal river management in the south west Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh: Moving towards a transdisciplinary approach?

Due to both natural and anthropogenic forces, the south west part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra coastal area is facing diverse problems such as waterlogging, salinity, and loss of biodiversity. In order to address these challenges, local people have identified ‘tidal river management (TRM)’ as a comprehensive approach for sustainably managing this part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin. However, due to institutional limitations, mismanagement and social conflicts, application of the TRM approach is not straightforward. In order to identify existing implementation barriers and to effectively apply the TRM approach, a transdisciplinary approach is examined for its potential to inform the re-shaping of TRM governing values and actions. It is argued that a thorough application of a transdisciplinary framework is essential, supported by the active involvement of key agencies and local stakeholders. The proposed transdisciplinary framework can potentially be applied to TRM projects for solving waterlogging and associated problems in order to achieve greater sustainability of the area.     

Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements

The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neo-classical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but that the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation from one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global community itself.     

Evaluation that counts: A review of climate change adaptation indicators & metrics using lessons from effective evaluation and science-practice interaction

Amid growing effort to move towards implementation of climate change adaptation, serious interest is emerging about how to use indicators and metrics (I&M) to evaluate adaptation success. Cities are among the leading experimenters developing I&M, but many other entities also view I&M as a tool for providing clarity and accountability about the goals and progress of adaptation. The current landscape of this work is scattered: I&M examples, frameworks, and guidance documents reflect motivations, contexts, and approaches as diverse as the field of adaptation itself. This study systematically surveys the “growth industry” of I&M, including a special focus on I&M approaches developed for cities anywhere and by US cities in particular. We classify these I&M efforts into four domains: those developed in academia, by program sponsors, boundary organizations, and on-the-ground implementers. With attention to theory on (program) evaluation and on science-practice interaction, we reveal a broad range of I&M evaluation purposes and collaboration practices. We conclude that evaluation of adaptation progress and effectiveness – if it is to usefully inform the work of cities or other implementers – would benefit from greater attention to the best practices and guidance offered in the related, but largely still separate, fields of evaluation and science-practice interaction.