Prioritizing highway safety improvement projects: A multi-criteria model and case study with SafetyAnalyst

This paper presents a multi-criteria model for prioritizing highway safety improvement projects, in which a set of criteria related to the project’s technical, economic, and social impacts are properly weighted in consideration. The proposed model features an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework to tackle the multi-criteria decision making problem. Different from the conventional AHP, this paper adds a fuzzy scale level between the criteria level and the alternative level, which offers the advantage of preventing the vagueness and uncertainty on judgments of the decision-maker(s). Such a unique modeling feature is further embedded with a non-linear optimization formulation to maximize the consistency in pair-wise comparison and weight estimation for each criterion. Case study results reveal that the proposed model is efficient not only for selecting the most suitable project for a specific site, but also for determining the priorities for implementing those suitable projects among multiple sites given the budget constraint. Comparative study between the proposed model and the existing ranking methods has also indicated its capability to capture the comprehensive impacts of all contributory factors which have been neglected by most existing single multi-criteria approaches during the safety project selection process. The clarity of model inputs, ease of synthesizing the final score of each candidate project, and the interpretation of results with respect to different selection criteria offer its best potential to be used as an effective tool for highway safety managers to assess and refine the safety improvement investments.     

Decision support for prioritizing energy technologies against high oil prices: A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approach

To provide national energy security in the 21st century, establishing a long-term strategic energy technology development is essential through selection and specialization. We established a strategic energy technology roadmap (ETRM) taking economic spin-offs, commercial potential, inner capacity, and technical spin-off into account. In this research, we suggest an integrated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach, which is composed of more than two criteria as the assessment of the optimal alternatives and solutions in the real world with the fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), to prioritize the weights of energy technologies of ETRM as we allocate R&D budget using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Building technology is the most preferred technology in the sector of energy technologies against high oil prices. And the coal technology and transportation technology follows and take the 2nd and 3rd place with the fuzzy AHP approach.     

Evaluating the speed camera sites selection criteria in the UK

Introduction: Speed cameras have been implemented to improve road safety over recent decades in the UK. Although the safety impacts of the speed camera have been estimated thoroughly, the criteria for selecting camera sites have rarely been studied. This paper evaluates the current speed camera sites selection criteria in the UK based on safety performance. Method: A total of 332 speed cameras and 2,513 control sites with road traffic accident data are observed from 2002 to 2010. Propensity score matching method and empirical Bayes method are employed and compared to estimate the safety effects of speed cameras under different scenarios. Results: First, the main characteristics of speed cameras meeting and not meeting the selection criteria are identified. The results indicate that the proximity to school zones and residential neighborhoods, as well as population density, are the main considerations when selecting speed camera sites. Then the official criteria used for selecting camera sites are evaluated, including site length (a stretch of road that has a fixed speed camera or has had one in the past), previous accident history, and risk value (a numerical scale of the risk level). The results suggest that a site length of 500 m should be used to achieve the optimum safety effects of speed cameras. Furthermore, speed cameras are most effective in reducing crashes when the requirement of minimum number of historical killed and seriously injured collisions (KSIs) is met. In terms of the risk value, it is found that the speed cameras can obtain optimal effectiveness with a risk value greater than or equal to 30, rather than the recommended risk value of 22.     

Engineering for Sustainable Development (ESD) in Bio-Diesel Production

Engineering for sustainable development (ESD) is an integrated systems approach, which aims at developing a balance between the requirements of the current stakeholders without compromising the ability of the future generations to meet their needs. This is a multi-criteria decision-making process that involves the identification of the most optimal sustainable process, which satisfies economic, ecological, social criteria as well as safety and health requirements. Certain difficulties are encountered when ESD is applied such as ill-defined criteria, scarcity of information, lack of process-specific data, metrics and the need to satisfy multiple decision makers. To overcome these difficulties ESD can be broken down into three major steps, starting with the life cycle assessment (LCA) of the process, followed by generation of non-dominating alternatives, and finally selecting the most sustainable process by employing an analytic hierarchical selection process. This methodology starts with the prioritization of the sustainability metrics (health and safety, economic, ecological and social components). Then the alternatives are subjected to a pair-wise comparison with respect to each Sustainable Development (SD) indicator and prioritized depending on their performance. The SD indicator priority score and each individual alternative's performance score together are used to determine the most sustainable alternative. In this paper, the analysis approach and metrics for ESD are applied to bio-diesel production.     

A rough set-based game theoretical approach for environmental decision-making: A case of offshore oil and gas operations

Environmental decision-making in offshore oil and gas (OOG) operations can be extremely complex due to conflicting objectives or criteria, availability of vague and uncertain information, and interdependency among multiple decision-makers. Most existing studies ignore conflicting preferences and strategic interactions among decision-makers. This paper presents a game theoretical approach to solve multi-criteria conflict resolution problem under constrained and uncertain environments. Uncertainties in the quantification of imprecise data are expressed using rough numbers. A multi-criteria game is developed to model a decision problem in which three groups of decision-makers (i.e., operators, regulators and service engineers) are involved. This game is solved using the generalized maximin solution concept. With the solution (i.e., optimal weights of the criteria), the rough numbers can be aggregated to an expected payoff for each alternative. Finally, the weights of upper and lower limits of a rough number are employed to transform the expected payoff into a crisp score, based on which all alternatives are ranked to identify the best one. A numerical example is outlined to demonstrate the application of the proposed method to the selection of management scenarios of drilling wastes.     

A pattern of contractor selection for oil and gas industries in a safety approach using ANP-DEMATEL in a Grey environment

Contractor selection is one of the major concerns of industry managers such as those in the oil industry. The objective of this study was to determine a contractor selection pattern for oil and gas industries in a safety approach. Assessment of contractors based on specific criteria and ultimately selecting an eligible contractor preserves the organizational resources. Due to the safety risks involved in the oil industry, one of the major criteria of contractor selection considered by managers today is safety. The results indicated that the most important safety criterion of contractor selection was safety records and safety investments. This represented the industry’s risks and the impact of safety training and investment on the performance of other sectors and the overall organization. The output of this model could be useful in the safety risk assessment process in the oil industry and other industries.     

Dangerous good transportation by road: from risk analysis to emergency planning

Despite the relative recent move towards inherent safe materials, the relentless drive of consumerism requires increased quantities of dangerous goods to be manufactured, transported, stored and used year on year. The safety and effectiveness of road transport systems is to be considered a strategic goal in particular in those countries, like Italy, in which 80% of goods are transported by this means. In this paper, we face the risk from dangerous good transport by presenting a site-oriented framework for risk assessment and developing a theoretical approach for emergency planning and optimisation. In the first step, we collected field data on a pilot highway and developed a database useful to allow a realistic evaluation of the accident frequency on a given route, by means of multivariate statistical analysis. To this end, we considered both inherent factors (such as tunnels, bend radii, height gradient, slope etc), meteorological factors, and traffic factors (traffic frequency of tank truck, dangerous good truck etc.) suitable to modify the standard national accident frequency. By applying the results to a pilot area, referring to flammable and explosive scenarios, we performed a risk assessment sensitive to route features and population exposed. The results show that the risk associated to the transport of hazardous materials, in some highway stretches, can be at the boundary of the acceptability level of risk set down by the well known F/N curves established in the Netherlands. On this basis, in the subsequent step, we developed a theoretical approach, based on the graph theory, to plan optimal emergency actions. The effectiveness of an emergency planning can normally be evaluated in term of system quickness and reliability. As a case study, we applied the developed approach to identify optimal consistency and localisation in the pilot area of ‘prompt action vehicles’, properly equipped, quick to move and ready for every eventuality. Applying this method results in an unambiguous and consistent selection criterion that allows reduction of intervention time, in connection with technical and economic optimisation of emergency equipment.     

基于层次分析法的厂内机动车叉车事故分析

近些年来，叉车在物流领域中的应用越来越广泛，但是随之而来也出现了大量的叉车事故，这不仅影响了人们的生产工作，更重要的是还威胁到了人们的生命安全。为此，笔者搜集了24起恶性叉车事故，对其进行了分析，并在此基础之上，结合笔者对此问题的理解，运用层次分析法．对导致叉车事故的原因进行了分析排序，得出叉车安全管理上作的重点。     

天然气钻井井口安全距离研究分析

分析天然气钻井井场可能发生的事故类型及事故的破坏程度,选择适合的事故后果模型,对天然气井井喷失控后可能发生的蒸气云爆炸及硫化氢扩散的后果进行量化分析,根据超压-冲量准则、热剂量准则和硫化氢扩散行为规律,计算出爆炸波、爆炸火球及硫化氢扩散的危害范围。笔者建立了天然气钻井井口安全距离的计算模型,并提出一种确定安全距离的方法。通过计算给出不同无阻流量、不同硫化氢体积含量的20种条件下的天然气钻井井口安全距离,并应用该模型对某含硫气井井口安全距离进行了计算。实例表明,该方法具备实用性,值得在天然气井选址规划中推广和使用。     

An entropy-based TOPSIS approach for analyzing and assessing crisis management systems in petrochemical industries

Crisis management systems should be assessed and updated in petrochemical industries due to hazards, such as fire and explosion. Successful crisis management systems can protect both personnel and property in the petrochemical industries. The present study aimed to assess crisis management systems of five petrochemical plants in terms of three aspects, including organizational aspects, human aspects, and technical aspects. A questionnaire was designed, encompassing 34 items to cover all three aspects at both management and staff levels. A multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach, including the entropy method and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), was used to analyze the collected data. The outcomes of the entropy method indicated that organizational and human aspects had the greatest influence on crisis management systems of the plants with 58% and 49% importance at management and staff levels, respectively. The crisis management systems of the investigated plants were ranked and analyzed using the TOPSIS approach. The findings of this study could assist managers and other decision-makers to address the issues of crisis management systems in petrochemical industries.     

航空装备研制风险的综合赋权-双基点法评估

为实现对航空预研项目技术风险的定量评估,建立技术风险评价指标体系,建立基于综合赋权和双基点方法的综合评估模型,采用层次分析法(AHP)求得主观权重,熵值赋权法求得客观权重,运用线性规划方法求得对2类权重加权的权值,构造综合权重;使用正负理想点间的投影距离代替传统的相对欧式距离对TOPSIS方法进行改进;实例分析中,通过对某航空预研项目5种不同的方案进行风险评估,得出各方案的优劣度,选出了较为优化的技术方案,该方法可用于指导其他装备研制风险的评估。     

Risk-based maintenance policy selection using AHP and goal programming

Maintenance policy selection is a multiple criteria decision making. The criteria often considered are cost and reliability of maintenance. There has been a growing interest in using risk of accidents as a criterion for maintenance selection. This paper presents an approach of maintenance selection based on risk of equipment failure and cost of maintenance. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and goal programming (GP) are used for maintenance policy selection. A case study in a benzene extraction unit of a chemical plant was done. The AHP results show that considering risk as a criterion, condition based maintenance (CBM) is a preferred policy over time-based maintenance (TBM) as CBM has better risk reduction capability than TBM. Similarly, considering cost as a criterion, corrective maintenance (CM) is preferred. However, considering both risk and cost as multiple criteria, the AHP–GP results show that CBM is a preferred approach for high-risk equipment and CM for low risk equipment.     

Development of a loading dock safety evaluation tool

INTRODUCTION: Companies that use forklifts to load and unload trucks at loading docks are well aware of the main danger associated with this type of activity (i.e., the possibility of the forklift falling or tipping over when the truck suddenly moves away from the dock). Even if various truck restraint measures can be implemented to reduce the possibility of this type of accident, a number of hazardous incidents that result in a forklift tipping over from a loading dock still do occur regularly in day-to-day activities. This situation has brought experts to examine and evaluate the effectiveness of different measures and systems depending on the context in which they are used. METHODS: The present study touched upon both the technical and the organizational aspects of the restraint measures that could have an impact on safety. Certain elements were examined very closely, especially the failure of mechanical devices and their relation to the environment in which they are used, as well as the systemic interaction between people and the various restraint measures in use in a given context. CONCLUSION: This article presents a safety evaluation tool regarding restraint measures or systems for trucks docked at loading platforms - a tool that, of course, would take into consideration both the specific contextual aspects related to the docking bay itself, and to the plant. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This tool is designed to help companies choose the optimal safety measures to implement, while remaining realistic in terms of the technical and economic aspects of any given situation.     

Risk reduction concept to provide design criteria for Emergency Systems for onshore LNG plants

The functional safety requirement is widely applied in the process plant industry in accordance with the international standards, such as IEC and ISA. The requirement is defined as safety integrity level (SIL) based on the risk reduction concept for protection layers, from original process risk to tolerable risk level. Although the standards specify both, the Prevention System and the Emergency System, as level of protection layers, the standards specify in detail only the use of the Prevention System (i.e., Safety Instrumented System (SIS)). The safety integrity level is not commonly allocated to the Emergency System (e.g., Fire and Gas System, Emergency Shutdown System and Emergency Depressuring System). This is because the required risk reduction can be normally achieved by only the Prevention System (i.e., SIS and Pressure Safety Valve (PSV)). Further, the risk reduction level for the Emergency System is very difficult to be quantified by the actual SIL application (i.e., evaluated based on the single accident scenario, such as an accident from process control deviation), since the escalation scenarios after Loss of Containment (LOC) greatly vary depending on the plant design and equipment. Consequently, there are no clear criteria for evaluating the Emergency System design. This paper aims to provide the functional safety requirement (i.e., required risk reduction level based on IEC 61508 and 61511) as design criteria for the Emergency System.In order to provide clear criteria for the Emergency System evaluation, a risk reduction concept integrated with public’s perception of acceptable risk criteria is proposed and is applied to identify the required safety integrity level for the Emergency System design. Further, to verify the safety integrity levels for the Emergency Systems, the probabilistic model of the Emergency Systems was established considering each Emergency System (e.g., Fire and Gas System, Emergency Shutdown System and Emergency Depressuring System) relation as the Overall Emergency System. This is because the Overall Emergency System can achieve its goal by the combined action of each individual system, including inherent safe design, such as separation distance.The proposed approach applicability was verified by conducting a case study using actual onshore Liquefied Natural Gas Plant data. Further, the design criteria for Emergency Systems for LNG plants are also evaluated by sensitivity analysis.     

Stability of workface using long-wall mining method in extremely thin and gently inclined iron mine

Long-wall mining method has its own advantages, such as small mining-cutting ratio, the simple technique of recovery and high level of mechanization, which is the optimal method used to mine gently inclined and extremely thin iron mine. How to ensure the safety of workers and equipment during mining is the key technical process. Based on elastic-plastic mechanics theory, the mechanic model of long-wall method mining gently inclined and extremely thin iron mine is established and the critical safety distance of workface is obtained. With the FLAC-2D simulation software, the rule of stress change, the deformation of workface and surrounding rock in different control-roof width are also summarized. The final results accord with the ones of theory test. We confirm the support-frame resistance of workface by analogy-statistic method. The results prove that hydraulic support-frame have the ability to provide enough pressure to assure the stability of working face within the 5-m of control-roof width.     

城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准研究

为提高我国城市燃气风险管理水平，帮助风险管理者科学地分配维护资源，探讨提出了我国城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准；采用AIR指标法确定了个人风险可接受标准范围为(2.397 3×10-7,4.794 7×10-7)；运用F-N曲线法结合ALARP原则，确定了社会风险可接受标准，最大可接受风险的截距为4.794 7×10-7，可忽略风险的截距为4.794 7×10-8；利用生活质量指数推导模型，计算了达到城市燃气事故可忽略风险水平的最优安全投入成本；基于风险动态原则，分析提出了风险可接受标准的更新办法。研究结果表明:我国城市燃气行业可接受风险水平低于煤矿、大坝、化工等危险行业的可接受风险水平；虽然我国城市燃气事故死亡率逐年降低，但要达到可忽略的风险水平，每年还需大量安全资金投入。     

叉车用安全装置的开发

以机械设备为起因的工伤事故中,叉车事故比较常见。首先介绍了日本国内叉车事故的分类统计数据,从硬件设备方面,概述了叉车减灾的主要措施,针对驾驶员在行驶中将肢体伸出驾驶仓外时易发生冲撞或挤压事故的情况,提出了基于光幕及激光扫描器的驾驶员肢体伸出仓外的监控方法。然后根据叉车的不同刹车性能指标,探讨了如何设定检测领域大小的问题。对蓄电池式1.5t叉车进行的实验表明,在检测系统能直接控制刹车的情况下,我们提出的方法是行之有效的。     

基于博弈论组合赋权灰靶模型的煤矿安全综合评价

为了合理准确地评价煤矿安全现状,建立了基于博弈论组合赋权耦合灰靶决策的煤矿安全评价模型。运用层次分析法、熵权法和神经网络算法单独计算出各个指标的权重,再根据最优线性组合系数确定博弈论组合赋权。以河南义马煤业5组矿井安全现状为例,运用博弈论组合赋权耦合灰靶决策计算矿井偏离靶心度,同时将该模型的评价结果与层次分析法耦合灰靶决策模型、熵权灰靶决策模型和神经网络算法耦合灰靶决策模型的评价结果进行对比分析。结果表明:博弈论组合赋权耦合灰靶决策模型的评价结果与煤矿实际安全情况基本一致,且该模型相较其他模型的评价结果更加精准简便。     

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area

Escalation of primary accidental scenarios triggering a “domino effect” have caused extremely severe accidental events in the chemical and process industry. The identification of possible escalation events is required in the safety assessment of sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or handled. In the European Union, “Seveso-II” Directive requires the assessment of on-site and off-site possible escalation scenarios in sites falling under the obligations of the Directive. In the present study, a methodology developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effect was applied to the analysis of an extended industrial area. Recently developed equipment damage probability models were applied for the identification of the final scenarios and for escalation probability assessment. The domino package of the Aripar-GIS software was used for risk recomposition. The results evidence that quantitative risk assessment of escalation hazard is of fundamental importance in order to identify critical equipment and to address prevention and protection actions.     

危险化学品事故后果计算过程探讨

基于事故后果的风险评估方法是国内外进行安全评价和土地使用安全规划的基础方法之一。本文基于危险化学品种类和危险装置类型，对可能发生的事故情景和相应事故后果计算模型的选择方法进行了阐述，针对易燃、易爆、有毒危险化学品的事故后果计算过程进行了系统分析。最后对本文提出的事故后果分析方法进行了实例应用。本文的研究成果可为安全评价或土地使用安全规划等工作的开展提供必要的参考。