Adaptive Capacity and Social-Environmental Change: Theoretical and Operational Modeling of Smallholder Coffee Systems Response in Mesoamerican Pacific Rim

Communities who rely directly on the natural environment for their survival typically have developed risk management strategies to enable them to avoid dangerous thresholds of change to their livelihoods. Development policy appropriate for natural resource-based communities requires an understanding of the primary drivers of social-ecological change, the ways in which affected households autonomously respond to such drivers, and the appropriate avenues for intervention to reduce vulnerability. Coffee has been, and still remains, one of the most important commodities of the Mesoamerican region, and hundreds of thousands of smallholder households in the region are dependent in some way on the coffee industry for their livelihood stability. We used the Analytical Network Process to synthesize expert knowledge on the primary drivers of livelihood change in the region as well as the most common household strategies and associated capacities necessary for effective response. The assessment identified both gradual systemic processes as well as specific environmental and market shocks as significant drivers of livelihood change across the region. Agronomic adjustments and new forms of social organization were among the more significant responses of farmers to these changes. The assessment indicates that public interventions in support of adaptation should focus on enhancing farmers’ access to market and technical information and finance, as well as on increasing the viability of farmers’ organizations and cooperatives.     

Hydrological Variability and Uncertainty of Lower Missouri River Basin Under Changing Climate

The lower Missouri River Basin has experienced increasing streamflow and flooding events, with higher risk of extreme hydrologic impacts under changing climate. The newly available North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate projections were used as atmospheric forcing for Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which runs with varying potential evapotranspiration (PET) methods to assess the hydrological change and uncertainty of 2040‐2069 over 1968‐1997. The NARCCAP temperature and precipitation predictions were refined using a bias correction method. The results show that, following the seasonal variability of precipitation, various water fluxes would increase in most seasons except the summer. Expected precipitation tends to increase in intensity with little change in frequency, triggering faster surface water concentration to form floods. The greatest streamflow increase would occur from November to February, increasing by around 10% on average. An increase of 3% occurs in the other months except for July and August in which river discharge decreases by around 2%. The climate predictions contribute more uncertainty annually, but PET algorithms gain more influence in winter or when other weather factors such as wind play a relatively more important role on evapotranspiration flux. This study predicts an even wetter environment compared to the historically very wet period, with the possibility of more flooding.     

湄公河污染防治法律机制研究

湄公河作为亚洲重要的国际河流,也是关系到我国发展的重要河流.由于人为和自然原因,湄公河水质不断恶化,对水资源的安全造成威胁.通过对湄公河沿岸各国关于水污染防治进行探讨分析,流域各国在湄公河水资源开发利用方面有着共同遵守的行为准则.基于此,立足湄公河流域水污染防治法律机制的基础上,通过分析该流域水污染的原因,以及湄公河污...     

The role of community-based watershed development in reducing farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and variability in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Community-based watershed development (CBWD) has been implemented in Ethiopia since the last three decades. However, the benefits of these watershed development interventions for climate change adaptation are not well documented. This study, therefore, assesses the contributions of CBWD in reducing farmers’ vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and variability in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Data were collected from systematically selected 157 households using questionnaire. The questionnaire consists of questions on climate, ecosystem and households’ livelihood capital. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Livelihood Vulnerability Index (IPCC-LVI) methods were used to generate vulnerability indices. Vulnerability indices computed for three conserved watersheds were compared with one non-conserved watershed using one-way ANOVA test. LVI score for ecosystem related indicators was significantly low for Adef Wuha compared to the non-conserved watershed. Similarly, LVI scores generated from agriculture, wealth and social indicators were low for Tija Baji and Guansa watersheds. On the other hand, the IPCC-LVI result did not show significant differences in exposure; however, sensitivity scores of conserved watersheds were significantly lower compared to the non-conserved. The adaptive capacities of two conserved watersheds (Guansa and Tija Baji) were also significantly lower as compared to the non-conserved. The overall (composite) vulnerability of watersheds generated from both methods (LVI and IPCC-LVI) showed that the conserved watersheds were less vulnerable to climate change compared to the non-conserved. The findings suggest that CBWD is an important strategy to reduce vulnerability of smallholder farmers to the ongoing and future climate change.     

Mekong River Fish Conservation Zones in Southern Laos: Assessing Effectiveness Using Local Ecological Knowledge

Small-scale fisheries are important in Laos, where rural people heavily depend upon Mekong River and tributary fish stocks for their livelihoods. Increasing pressures from human exploitation and habitat disturbance, however, have raised serious concerns about the potential depletion of various species. This has led to the establishment of large numbers of Fish Conservation Zones (FCZs) or “no-take” fish sanctuaries in southern Laos based on a “community-based fisheries co-management” framework. This study uses the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of fishers to assess the effectiveness of village-managed FCZs in enhancing fish stocks in the mainstream Mekong River in Khong District, Champasak Province. Focus group interviews about species that are believed to have benefited from different FCZs are compared with parameters such as FCZ area, age, depth, localized gradient, water velocity, and the presence of wetland forests nearby. The results suggest that no one aspect is likely to account for variations in fish stocks; rather, it is the interaction between numerous factors that has the largest impact. Secondly, the results indicate that microhabitat diversity and protection are critical for maintaining and enhancing Mekong fisheries. Deep-water pools are particularly important as dry season refuges for many fish species, and FCZ depth may be the single most important environmental factor affecting the success of FCZs in the Mekong River. FCZs have the most potential to benefit relatively sedentary species, but may also benefit highly migratory species, given the right conditions. This study shows that integrated approaches to stock assessment that employ LEK and scientific fisheries management have considerable potential for improving Mekong capture-fisheries management.     

Evaluation of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Satellite Rainfall Products over the Lower Colorado River Basin,Texas

Quality of precipitation products from the Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement mission (IMERG) was evaluated over the Lower Colorado River Basin of Texas. Observations of several rainfall events of a wide range of magnitudes during May 2015 by a very dense network of 241 rain gauges over the basin were used as a reference. The impact of temporal and spatial downscaling of different satellite products (near/post‐real‐time) on their accuracy was studied. Generally, all IMERG products perform better when the temporal and spatial resolutions are downscaled. The Final product shows relatively better performance compared to the near‐real‐time products in terms of basic performance measures; however, regarding rainfall detection, all products show nearly similar performance. When considering rainfall detection, IMERG adequately captures the precipitation events; however, in terms of spatial patterns and accuracy, more improvements are needed. IMERG products analysis results may help developers gain insight into the regional performance of the product, improve the product algorithms, and provide information to end users on the products’ suitability for potential hydrometeorological applications. Overall, the IMERG products, even the uncalibrated product at its finest resolution, showed reasonable performance indicating their great potential for applications such as water resources management, prevention of natural disasters, and flood forecasting.     

Robust Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Using the VIKOR Method with Objective Weights

This study proposes a robust prioritization framework for climate change adaptation strategies under uncertain climate change scenarios, using the VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method, a multi‐criteria decision‐making approach, together with the Shannon entropy‐based weights. The VIKOR method allows us to find a compromise solution between two decision strategies of maximizing group utility and minimizing individual regret, and the Shannon entropy is used to determine objective weights among multiple climate change scenarios. The proposed methodology was applied to the problem of selecting locations of subwatersheds for reusing treated wastewater (TWW) in a Korean urban watershed. Selected based on the sustainability concept, hydro‐environmental and socioeconomic indicators were used to evaluate the sustainability of TWW reuse under multiple climate change scenarios, using the hydrologic simulation model results and statistical data. Finally, sustainability scores under multiple scenarios were aggregated using the VIKOR together with the Shannon entropy‐based weights for the robust prioritization of adaptation strategies. According to the different levels of regret aversion or affinity, our results for water quality showed different sets of adaptation strategies as the best options, suggesting that our framework would help stakeholders seeking the robust options considering both the utility and regret.     

Influence of Bioenergy Crop Production and Climate Change on Ecosystem Services

Land use change can significantly affect the provision of ecosystem services and the effects could be exacerbated by projected climate change. We quantify ecosystem services of bioenergy‐based land use change and estimate the potential changes of ecosystem services due to climate change projections. We considered 17 bioenergy‐based scenarios with Miscanthus, switchgrass, and corn stover as candidate bioenergy feedstock. Soil and Water Assessment Tool simulations of biomass/grain yield, hydrology, and water quality were used to quantify ecosystem services freshwater provision (FWPI), food (FPI) and fuel provision, erosion regulation (ERI), and flood regulation (FRI). Nine climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase‐3 were used to quantify the potential climate change variability. Overall, ecosystem services of heavily row cropped Wildcat Creek watershed were lower than St. Joseph River watershed which had more forested and perennial pasture lands. The provision of ecosystem services for both study watersheds were improved with bioenergy production scenarios. Miscanthus in marginal lands of Wildcat Creek (9% of total area) increased FWPI by 27% and ERI by 14% and decreased FPI by 12% from the baseline. For St. Joseph watershed, Miscanthus in marginal lands (18% of total area) improved FWPI by 87% and ERI by 23% while decreasing FPI by 46%. The relative impacts of land use change were considerably larger than climate change impacts in this paper. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Forest resources and household welfare: Empirical evidence from North Central Vietnam

Using secondary data from a socio-economic quantitative household survey of the North Central region of Vietnam, the main aim of our study is to analyze the causal effect of forest resources on household income and poverty. Based on the observed characteristics of a forest-based livelihood and forest-related activities, we use a propensity score matching (PSM) method to control for potential bias arising from self-selection. The PSM results indicate that households with a forest-based livelihood had a higher level of income and lower poverty rates than did those without. Interestingly, our findings confirm that a forest-based livelihood offers much higher income than any other type of livelihood adopted by local households. Also, the poverty rate among households with a forest-based livelihood is lower than those earning non-labor income or engaged in wage/crop and crop livelihoods. Among households and provinces, we find varying opportunities deriving from forest resources, suggesting that there are potential barriers hindering local households from pursuing a forest livelihood or participating in some forest activities. Therefore, government policy and regulations on forest management should focus on improving the access of households to forest resources, while enhancing the sustainability of these resources.     

Livelihood change and livelihood sustainability in the uplands of Lembang subwatershed, West Sumatra, Indonesia, in a changing natural resource management context

This paper analyzes livelihood change and livelihood sustainability of households in the upland part of the Lembang subwatershed, West Sumatra, in response to changes in the natural resource management context during the last decade. Using the sustainable livelihood framework (SLF), we measured livelihood changes at two separate points in time, 1996 and 2006, and assessed their environmental, economic, social, and institutional sustainability. We found that people with a low income had less access to capital assets than people from middle- and high-income groups. Our analysis revealed, however, that access to capital assets increased over time, and that poor households experienced economic improvement, indicating an overall increase in economic sustainability. Environmental sustainability, however, is threatened by intensive agricultural practices such as high agrochemical input and intensive soil tillage on steep slopes, leading to pollution and soil erosion. Social sustainability is also a matter of concern: while social exclusion has been reduced, income inequity has increased. Institutional sustainability is likely to remain uncertain, as local institutions for natural resource management are still weak, despite the fact that decentralization has been implemented during the last 8 years. External facilitation is needed to improve the livelihood of upland people while, at the same time, enhancing the sustainability of watershed management. Strengthening local institutions, conserving natural resources, and promoting environmentally sound agricultural practices are the three most important policies to be promoted within the watershed.     

Considering Climate Change in the Estimation of Long‐Term Flood Risks of Devils Lake in North Dakota

Terminal lakes are impacted by regional changes in climate. Devils Lake (DL), North Dakota, United States (U.S.), is a case in which a prolonged shift in the precipitation pattern resulted in a 10‐m water‐level rise over the past two decades, which cost over one billion U.S. dollars in mitigation. Currently, DL is 1.5 m from an uncontrolled overspill to the nearby Sheyenne River, which could lead to unprecedented environmental, social, and economic costs. Water outlets recently implemented in the lake to slow the water‐level rise and prevent an uncontrolled overspill are subject to significant concerns over the introduction of invasive species and downstream water quality. We developed a hydrological model of the DL basin using the soil and water assessment tool and analyzed DL's overspill probability using an ensemble of statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of the future climate. The results indicate a significant likelihood (7.3‐20.0%) of overspill in the next few decades in the absence of outlets; some members of the GCM integration ensemble suggest an exceedance probability of over 85.0 and 95.0% for the 2020s and 2050s, respectively. Full‐capacity outlets radically reduce the probability of DL overspill and are able to partially mitigate the problem by decreasing the average lake level by approximately 1.9 and 1.5 m in the 2020s and 2050s, respectively.     

Watershed protection: Capturing the benefits of nature's water supply services

Healthy watersheds provide valuable services to society, including the supply and purification of fresh water. Because these natural ecosystem services lie outside the traditional domain of commercial markets, they are undervalued and underprotected. With population and development pressures leading to the rapid modification of watershed lands, valuable hydrological services are being lost, which poses risks to the quality and cost of drinking water and the reliability of water supplies. Increasing the scale and scope of programmes to protect hydrological services requires policies that harmonize land uses in watersheds with the provision of these important natural services. This article summarizes key attributes of hydrological services and their economic benefits; presents a spectrum of institutional mechanisms for safeguarding those services; discusses programmes in Quito (Ecuador), Costa Rica and New York City; and offers some lessons learned and recommendations for achieving higher levels of watershed protection.     

Water shortage and inequality in arid Minqin oasis of northwest China: adaptive policies and farmers’ perceptions

Minqin oasis, located at the lower reaches of the Shiyang River in northwest China, is one of the driest regions in the world. Severe water shortage has exacerbated the vulnerability of local ecosystems and the agricultural livelihood of farmers, and ecological failure threatens the environmental security of the region. Since 2007 China has implemented a range of strategic programmes and policies on water management which involve governments at all levels and include a diversity of adaptive actions in this region. However, rural households do not benefit equally from the policies and programmes. This study addresses two questions: first, how are inequality issues addressed in water-related policies and programmes? And second, what demographic and socio-economic factors at the household level are significantly related to the inequality in benefit sharing arisen from the implementation of these policies? The study employs a mixed method approach, integrating a qualitative approach that investigates policy documents with a quantitative approach that analyses primary data collected from a household survey in Minqin in 2012. The study finds that there are inadequate financial and instrumental resources put in place to address the causes of inequality. Unequal holdings of household capital, especially social capital and political status, significantly influences whether or not farmers can benefit from the water-related policies and schemes as practiced in the study area. Addressing the root causes of unequal benefits from water-related policies is urgent if China aims to achieve policy goals and sustainable development in this ecologically vulnerable region.     

Measuring conservation success beyond the traditional biological criteria: the case of conservation projects in Costa Rica,Mekong Valley,and Cameroon

Traditionally, the criteria used to measure conservation success or failure are based on biological factors. Biological factors include changes in the amount of targeted conserved species, biodiversity, and total area conserved. However, conservation efforts are not simply a matter of biological concern; environmental, political, social, and conflict pressures on different scales (ranging from local to global) also have strong influences on the outcome of conservation. These other factors can either pose threats to or enhance conservation, but are not addressed by current criteria. Using a proposed holistic rubric that includes interdisciplinary fields, this paper examines a set of conservation factors on different scales – ranging from local to global – to determine their importance in conservation. The paper analyses positive factor influences with more successful conservation and negative factor influences with less successful, or failed, conservation attempts. Neutral and non‐applicable factor influences are also identified, defined, and ranked as a standardization mechanism. The determination of success changed when the holistic rubric was applied to conservation projects in Costa Rica, Mekong Valley, and Cameroon. In the Costa Rica case study, conservation success for Guanacaste and Talamanca national parks is rated ‘moderately low’. In the case of Mekong Valley, conservation success is rated ‘low’ for Lower Mekong, ‘moderately low’ for Greater Annamites, and ‘low’ for Phong Nha‐Ke Bang national parks. Cameroon's Congo Basin and Sangha Tri‐National conservation efforts are both rated ‘low’, while Dja Faunal is rated ‘very low’. We conclude that if conservation efforts are to attain a high level of success, the strategy for global conservation must move away from the traditional biological approach, which focuses mainly on biological concerns, and embrace a holistic approach, which in addition to biological concerns, addresses environmental, political, social, and conflict pressures, which have strong influences on the outcomes of conservation.     

Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach

This paper analyses the vulnerability of South African agriculture to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio‐economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the regions most exposed to climate change and variability do not always overlap with those experiencing high sensitivity or low adaptive capacity. Furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. The Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, which have high levels of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low shares of agriculture in total GDP, are relatively low on the vulnerability index. In contrast, the highly vulnerable regions of Limpopo, Kwazulu‐Natal and the Eastern Cape are characterised by densely populated rural areas, large numbers of small‐scale farmers, high dependency on rain‐fed agriculture and high land degradation. These large differences in the extent of vulnerability among provinces suggest that policymakers should develop region‐specific policies and address climate change at the local level.     

Modeling Summer Month Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States Using Antecedent Flow Conditions

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5‐11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best‐performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid‐Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.     

Analysis of livelihood security: a case study in the Kali-Khola watershed of Nepal

This paper examines household livelihoods in highland and lowland communities of the Kali-Khola agricultural watershed in western Nepal on the basis of economic, ecological and social security indicators. Significant differences were found in soil fertility status, pests and diseases management, risk and uncertainties, use of agrochemicals and access to social services. No remarkable variations were found in crop diversification, annual agricultural income and food sufficiency. However, uncertainty and risk in agricultural production is relatively low in highland communities. The findings reveal that agriculture production alone is not a viable livelihood option for agricultural watershed communities in Nepal. The households growing crops with hired labour have relatively sustainable livelihoods in Nepal's agricultural watersheds. Insufficient agricultural land, insufficient working manpower within a family, and lack of access to ecological agricultural services are prime factors in being livelihood insecure in agricultural watershed communities. Therefore, long-term policies and plans need to be developed for the empowerment of local farmers and to support rural livelihoods with adaptable and flexible income-generating strategies, resilient resource management institutions and enhancement of knowledge, skills and social capital.     

Mapping wetlands in the Lower Mekong Basin for wetland resource and conservation management using Landsat ETM images and field survey data

The Mekong River Basin is considered to be the second most species rich river basin in the world. The 795,000 km(2) catchment encompasses several ecoregions, incorporating biodiverse and productive wetland systems. Eighty percent of the rapidly expanding population of the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), made up in part by Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia and Viet Nam, live in rural areas and are heavily reliant on wetland resources. As the populations of Cambodia and Lao PDR will double in the next 20 years, pressure on natural resources and particularly wetlands can only increase. For development planning, resource and conservation management to incorporate wetland issues, information on the distribution and character of Mekong wetlands is essential. The existing but outdated wetland maps were compiled from secondary landuse-landcover data, have limited coverage, poor thematic accuracy and no meta-data. Therefore the Mekong River Commission (MRC) undertook to produce new wetland coverage for the LMB. As resources, funding and regional capacity are limited, it was determined that the method applied should use existing facilities, be easily adaptable, and replicable locally. For the product to be useful it must be accepted by local governments and decision makers. The results must be of acceptable accuracy (>75%) and the methodology should be relatively understandable to non-experts. In the first stage of this exercise, field survey was conducted at five pilot sites covering a range of typical wetland habitats (MRC wetland classification) to supply data for a supervised classification of Landsat ETM images from the existing MRC archive. Images were analysed using ERDAS IMAGINE and applying Maximum Likelihood Classification. Field data were reserved to apply formal accuracy assessment to the final wetland habitat maps, with resulting accuracy ranging from 77 to 94%. The maps produced are now in use at a Provincial and National level in three countries for resource and conservation planning and management applications, including designation of a Ramsar wetland site of international importance.     

Renewable inequity? Women's employment in clean energy in industrialized,emerging and developing economies

Women are globally underrepresented in the energy industry. This paper reviews existing academic and practitioner literature on women's employment in renewable energy in industrialized nations, emerging economies and developing countries. It highlights similarities and differences in occupational patterns in women's employment in renewables in different parts of the world, and makes recommendations for optimizing women's participation. Findings reveal the need for broader socially‐progressive policies and shifts in societal attitudes about gender roles, in order for women to benefit optimally from employment in renewables. In some industrialized countries, restructuring paid employment in innovative ways while unlinking social protection from employment status has been suggested as a way to balance gender equity with economic security and environmental protection. However, without more transformative social changes in gender relations, such strategies may simply reinforce rather than subvert existing gender inequities both in paid employment and in unpaid domestic labor. Grounded interventions to promote gender equality in renewable energy employment – especially within the context of increasing access to energy services for underserved communities – are more prevalent and better‐established in some non‐OECD (Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development) countries. OECD countries might be well‐advised to try to implement certain programs and policies that are already in place in some emerging economies.     

Social Demand for Ecosystem Services and Implications for Watershed Management

We performed a sociocultural preference assessment for a suite of ecosystem services provided by the Kiamichi River watershed in the south‐central United States, a region with intense water conflict. The goal was to examine how a social assessment of services could be used to weigh tradeoffs among water resource uses for future watershed management and planning. We identified the ecosystem services beneficiaries groups, analyzed perception for maintaining services, assessed differences in the importance and perceived trends for ecosystem services, and explored the perceived impact on ecosystem services arising from different watershed management scenarios. Results show habitat for species and water regulation were two ecosystem services all beneficiaries agreed were important. The main discrepancies among stakeholder groups were found for water‐related services. The identification of potential tradeoffs between services under different flow scenarios promotes a dynamic management strategy for allocating water resources, one that mitigates potential conflicts. While it is widely accepted the needs of all beneficiaries should be considered for the successful incorporation of ecosystem services into watershed management, the number of studies actually using the sociocultural perspective in ecosystem service assessment is limited. Our study demonstrates it is both possible and useful to quantify social demand of ecosystem services in watershed management.