The fatality consequences of the 65 mph speed limits, 1989

This study examined whether the number of fatalities on rural interstates in 1989 was higher than would be expected based on experience during 1982–1986 and experience on all other roads. Among the 40 states that increased the speed limit to 65 mph on rural interstates, the number of fatalities was 29% higher than expected. Among the eight states retaining a 55 mph maximum speed limit on rural interstates, the observed number of fatalities was 12% lower than expected, although this reduction was not statistically significant. After adjusting the fatality risk on rural interstates for differences in vehicle miles traveled on those roads and for higher passenger vehicle occupancy rates attributable to possible increases in vacation travel, the increased fatality risk was 19%. These data suggest that the majority of the estimated increase in fatalities on rural interstates in 1989 (almost 400 of the approximately 600 extra deaths) can be attributed to the higher speeds resulting from the higher speed limits. Changes in mileage account for the remaining 200 extra deaths.     

Relationship of traffic fatality rates to maximum state speed limits

Objectives: The objective of this study was to examine the safety effects of increases in U.S. state maximum speed limits during the period 1993–2013.

Methods: Poisson regression was used to model state-by-state annual traffic fatality rates per mile of travel as a function of time, the unemployment rate, the percentage of the driving age population that was younger than 25, per capita alcohol consumption, and the maximum posted speed limit on any road in the state. Separate analyses were conducted for all roads, interstates and freeways, and all other roads.

Results: A 5 mph increase in the maximum state speed limit was associated with an 8% increase in fatality rates on interstates and freeways and a 4% increase on other roads. In total, there were an estimated 33,000 more traffic fatalities during the years 1995–2013 than would have been expected if maximum speed limits had not increased. In 2013 alone, there were approximately 1,900 additional deaths—500 on interstates/freeways and 1,400 on other roads.

Conclusions: There is a definite trend of increased fatality risk when speed limits are raised. As roadway sections with higher speed limits have become more ubiquitous, the increase in fatality risk has extended beyond these roadways. The increase in risk has been so great that it has now largely offset the beneficial effects of some other traffic safety strategies. State policy makers should keep this trade-off in mind when considering proposals to raise speed limits.     

Raising the speed limit from 75 to 80 mph on Utah rural interstates: Effects on vehicle speeds and speed variance

IntroductionIn November 2010 and October 2013, Utah increased speed limits on sections of rural interstates from 75 to 80 mph. Effects on vehicle speeds and speed variance were examined.MethodsSpeeds were measured in May 2010 and May 2014 within the new 80 mph zones, and at a nearby spillover site and at more distant control sites where speed limits remained 75 mph. Log-linear regression models estimated percentage changes in speed variance and mean speeds for passenger vehicles and large trucks associated with the speed limit increase. Logistic regression models estimated effects on the probability of passenger vehicles exceeding 80, 85, or 90 mph and large trucks exceeding 80 mph.ResultsWithin the 80 mph zones and at the spillover location in 2014, mean passenger vehicle speeds were significantly higher (4.1% and 3.5%, respectively), as were the probabilities that passenger vehicles exceeded 80 mph (122.3% and 88.5%, respectively), than would have been expected without the speed limit increase. Probabilities that passenger vehicles exceeded 85 and 90 mph were non-significantly higher than expected within the 80 mph zones. For large trucks, the mean speed and probability of exceeding 80 mph were higher than expected within the 80 mph zones. Only the increase in mean speed was significant. Raising the speed limit was associated with non-significant increases in speed variance.ConclusionsThe study adds to the wealth of evidence that increasing speed limits leads to higher travel speeds and an increased probability of exceeding the new speed limit. Results moreover contradict the claim that increasing speed limits reduces speed variance.Practical applicationsAlthough the estimated increases in mean vehicle speeds may appear modest, prior research suggests such increases would be associated with substantial increases in fatal or injury crashes. This should be considered by lawmakers considering increasing speed limits.     

Characteristics of Moose-vehicle Collisions in Anchorage, Alaska, 1991–1995

Moose have successfully adapted to Anchorage's urban environment, using greenbelt areas for shelter, forage, and protection from nearby predator populations. However, the proximity of moose to people poses unique hazards: a motor vehicle colliding a moose may cause significant injury and vehicle damage. The annual Moose Vehicle Collision (MVC) rate increased during the study period from 40 to 52 MVCs per 100,000 registered vehicles in Anchorage, a significant (X² = 7.8, p < 0.01) increase of 23%. Of 519 reported MVCs, 23% resulted in injury to 158 people, with no human fatalities. Collisions were 2.6 times more likely to have occurred in the dark (n = 375, [72%]) than during daylight hours. An MVC on a dry road was twice (95% CI: 1.29, 3.08) as likely to have resulted in an injury as an incident on a slick road. MVCs may be prevented by: reducing speed limits around greenbelt areas, brighter vehicle headlights, placement of street lights in known moose areas, underpasses for wildlife at known crossings, and snow removal to reduce berm height in areas of high moose concentrations. Published by National Safety Council and Elsevier Science Ltd     

Effects of legal BAC limits on fatal crash involvement: analyses of 28 states from 1976 through 2002

PROBLEM: Hundreds of laws have been implemented in the United States over the past few decades designed to reduce alcohol-impaired driving and the crashes that often result. One approach has been to lower the legally allowable alcohol concentration for drivers. We examined the effects of changes in legal BAC limit in 28 U.S. states from January, 1976 to December, 2002. METHOD: An interrupted time-series quasi-experimental design was used, incorporating non-alcohol-related crashes as comparisons. Four outcome measures of alcohol-related crash involvement were examined: single-vehicle nighttime, BAC=0.01-0.07, BAC=0.08-0.14, and BAC>/=0.15. Missing BAC test result data were handled by using multiple imputations. Analyses involved estimation of state-specific ARIMA models, controlling for other factors affecting overall crash rates and other major DUI policy changes. Inverse variance weighting methods were used to pool results across states for the most precise underlying estimate of effect of legal BAC limits. RESULTS: Considerable state by state variability in estimated effects was observed, but results from the pooled analyses were clear and consistent. Changes in legal BAC limits significantly affected alcohol-related fatal crash involvement for both the SVN and BAC test result measures, and the laws affected drivers at all drinking levels. SUMMARY: An estimated 360 deaths are prevented each year in the United States as a result of the move from a 0.10 to 0.08 legal limit in recent years, and an additional 538 lives could be saved each year if the United States reduced the limit to 0.05, consistent with limits in most countries worldwide. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Given the significant effects of lower legal BAC limits on fatal crash involvement, businesses should support implementation of laws that further reduce the legal BAC limit for all drivers. Furthermore, all companies should set higher standards for employees, such as a zero allowable BAC limit for driving during work time.     

Fall-related traumatic brain injury deaths and hospitalizations among older adults--United States, 2005

PROBLEM: Among older adults, both unintentional falls and traumatic brain injuries (TBI) result in significant morbidity and mortality; however, only limited national data on fall-related TBI are available. METHOD: To examine the relationship between older adult falls and TBI deaths and hospitalizations, CDC analyzed 2005 data from the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Nationwide Inpatient Sample. RESULTS: In 2005, among adults>or=65 years, there were 7946 fall-related TBI deaths and an estimated 56,423 hospitalizations for nonfatal fall-related TBI in the United States. Fall-related TBI accounted for 50.3% of unintentional fall deaths and 8.0% of nonfatal fall-related hospitalizations. SUMMARY: These findings underscore the need for greater dissemination and implementation of evidence-based fall prevention interventions.     

Effect on fatality risk of changing from secondary to primary seat belt enforcement

BACKGROUND: Most seat belt use laws originally passed in the United States contained language restricting enforcement to drivers already stopped for some other reason. States that have since removed this secondary enforcement restriction have reported increased seat belt use. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the effect of these law changes on driver fatality rates. METHOD: Trends in passenger vehicle driver death rates per billion miles traveled were compared for 10 states that changed from secondary to primary seat belt enforcement and 14 states that remained with secondary enforcement. RESULTS: After accounting for possible economic effects and other general time trends, the change from secondary to primary enforcement was found to reduce annual passenger vehicle driver death rates by an estimated 7% (95% confidence limits 3.0-10.9). CONCLUSION: The majority of U.S. states still have secondary enforcement laws. If these remaining secondary laws were amended, an estimated 696 deaths per year could be prevented.     

General and public opinion about the general speed limits in Finland in 1973–1974

This article analyzes the general opinion (of the population) and the public opinion (of the press) about the general speed limits in Finland during the speed limit experiment of 1973–1976, as well as background and changes of opinions. The results showed: (1) The public opinion on speed limits has been more negative than the general opinion. (2) Negative attitudes toward speed limits are connected to at least three side issues — right-wing ideology, motoring as sport, and speed limits as a threat to one's own traffic behavior. (3) The significant decrease in traffic accidents during the speed limit experiment acted as a pressure of facts that rapidly increased the number of supporters of speed limits. (4) Comparison with other studies showed no great differences in support of speed limits among the countries of Europe. In West Germany, however, the public opinion about speed limits was more negative than in Finland.     

An examination of the increases in pedestrian motor-vehicle crash fatalities during 2009–2016

IntroductionPedestrian fatalities increased 46% in the United States during 2009–2016. This study identified circumstances under which the largest increases in deaths occurred during this period.MethodAnnual counts of U.S. pedestrian fatalities and crash involvements were extracted from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and General Estimates System. Poisson regression examined if pedestrian fatalities by various roadway, environmental, personal, and vehicle factors changed significantly during 2009–2016. Linear regression examined changes over the study period in pedestrian deaths per 100 crash involvements and in horsepower per 1000 pounds of weight among passenger vehicles involved in fatal single-vehicle pedestrian crashesResultsPedestrian deaths per 100 crash involvements increased 29% from 2010, when they reached their lowest point, to 2015, the most recent year for which crash involvement data were available. The largest increases in pedestrian deaths during 2009–2016 occurred in urban areas (54% increase from 2009 to 2016), on arterials (67% increase), at nonintersections (50% increase), and in dark conditions (56% increase). The rise in the number of SUVs involved in fatal single-vehicle pedestrian crashes (82% increase) was larger than the increases in the number of cars, vans, pickups, or medium/heavy trucks involved in these crashes. The power of passenger vehicles involved in fatal single-vehicle pedestrian crashes increased over the study period, with larger increases in vehicle power among more powerful vehicles.ConclusionsEfforts to turn back the recent increase in pedestrian fatalities should focus on the conditions where the rise has been the greatest.Practical applicationsTransportation agencies can improve urban arterials by investing in proven countermeasures, such as road diets, median crossing islands, pedestrian hybrid beacons, and automated speed enforcement. Better road lighting and vehicle headlights could improve pedestrian visibility at night.     

Traffic speeds associated with implementation of 80 mph speed limits on West Texas rural interstates

Problem

In 2006 Texas raised the daytime speed limit for passenger vehicles on segments of I-10 and I-20 from 75 to 80 mph. Methods: Traffic speeds were measured before and 3, 12, and 16 months after the limit was changed. Results: During the 16-month period following the speed limit increase, mean speeds of passenger vehicles on I-20 increased by 9 mph relative to the comparison road, where no speed limit change occurred and traffic speeds declined. On I-10 mean speeds increased by 4 mph relative to the comparison road. Limiting the analysis to the month before the speed limit change and 1 year later, the proportion of drivers exceeding 80 mph was 18 times higher on I-20 and 2 times higher on I-10. Discussion: The smaller speed increases on I-10 may be related to its proximity to the U.S. border with Mexico. Highly visible border patrol activity coincided with posting of the higher speed limit. Long-term monitoring in other states suggests that traffic speeds in Texas are likely to continue to increase. Impact on Industry: The present study adds to the wealth of evidence that increased speed limits lead to increased travel speeds. The primary countermeasures to reduce the risk of speed-related crashes include highly visible police traffic enforcement and the use of speed cameras accompanied by publicity.     

The safety impact of the 65 mph speed limit: A case study using Alabama accident records

On August 1, 1987, a change in Alabama laws went into effect raising the speed limit on the rural interstates to 65 mph. Two accident data sets (one year before and one year after the law change) were compared to assess the impact of the 65 mph speed limit on severity and frequency of accidents. Although accident severity appeared to remain the same from before to after time periods, the frequency of accidents on the rural interstates increased significantly, by 18.88%. However, the significant increase on the rural interstates was accompanied by a nonsignificant decrease of 456 accidents in the entire state of Alabama. This confounding result made it difficult to isolate the cause of various significant changes, but the overall evidence is not favorable to the recent increases in driving speeds.     

Evaluation of the effectiveness of traffic calming measures on vehicle speeds and pedestrian injury severity in Ghana

Objectives: Each year, pedestrian injuries constitute over 40% of all road casualty deaths and up to 60% of all urban road casualty deaths in Ghana. This is as a result of the overwhelming dependence on walking as a mode of transport in an environment where there are high vehicular speeds and inadequate pedestrian facilities. The objectives of this research were to establish the (1) impact of traffic calming measures on vehicle speeds and (2) association between traffic calming measures and pedestrian injury severity in built-up areas in Ghana.

Method: Vehicle speeds were unobtrusively measured in 38 selected settlements, including 19 with traffic calming schemes and 19 without. The study design used in this research was a matched case–control. A regression analysis compared case and control casualties using a conditional logistic regression.

Results: Generally, the mean vehicle speeds and the proportion of vehicles exceeding the 50?km/h speed limit were significantly lower in settlements that have traffic calming measures compared to towns without any traffic calming measures. Additionally, the proportion of motorists who exceeded the speed limit was 30% or less in settlements that have traffic calming devices and the proportion who exceeded the speed limit was 60% or more in towns without any traffic calming measures. The odds of pedestrian fatality was significantly higher in settlements that have no traffic calming devices compared to those that have (odds ratio [OR]?=?1.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.09–4.43). The protective effects of a traffic calming scheme that has a speed table was notably higher than those where there were no speed tables.

Conclusion: It was clearly evident that traffic calming devices reduce vehicular speeds and, thus, the incidence and severity of pedestrian injuries in built-up areas in Ghana. However, the fact that they are deployed on arterial roads is increasingly becoming a road safety concern. Given the emerging safety challenges associated with speed calming measures, we recommend that their use be restricted to residential streets but not on arterial roads. Long-term solutions for improving pedestrian safety proposed herein include bypassing settlements along the highways to reduce pedestrians’ exposure to traffic collisions and adopting a modern way of enforcement such as evidence-based laser monitoring in conjunction with a punishment regime that utilizes the demerit points system.     

Fatal crash trends for Australian young drivers 1997-2007: Geographic and socioeconomic differentials

Background

Little has been published on changes in young driver fatality rates over time. This paper examines differences in Australian young driver fatality rates over the last decade, examining important risk factors including place of residence and socioeconomic status (SES).

Methods

Young driver (17-25 years) police-recorded passenger vehicle crashes were extracted from New South Wales State records from 1997-2007. Rurality of residence and SES were classified into three levels based on drivers’ residential postcode: urban, regional, or rural; and high, moderate, or low SES areas. Geographic and SES disparities in trends of fatality rates were examined by the generalized linear model. Chi-square trend test was used to examine the distributions of posted speed limits, drinking driving, fatigue, seatbelt use, vehicle age, night-time driving, and the time from crash to death across rurality and socioeconomic status.

Results

Young driver fatality rate significantly decreased 5% per year (p < 0.05); however, stratified analyses (by rurality and by SES) showed that only the reduction among urban drivers was significant (average 5% decrease per year, p < 0.01). The higher relative risk of fatality for rural versus urban drivers, and for drivers of low versus high SES remained unchanged over the last decade. High posted speed limits, fatigue, drink driving and seatbelt non-use were significantly associated with rural fatalities, whereas high posted speed limit, fatigue, and driving an older vehicle were significantly related to low SES fatality.

Conclusion

The constant geographic and SES disparities in young driver fatality rates highlight safety inequities for those living in rural areas and those of low SES. Better targeted interventions are needed, including attention to behavioral risk factors and vehicle age.     

The effect of speed limit reductions in urban areas on cyclists’ injuries in collisions with cars

Abstract

Objective: Impact speed is one of the most important factors explaining the severity of injuries to cyclists when they collide with passenger cars. To reduce injury severity (especially for vulnerable road users), since 2008, Swedish municipalities have the authority to lower the speed limit to 30 or 40?km/h in urban areas as appropriate. The aim of this study was to evaluate how this speed limit reduction has influenced the injury severity for cyclists in this type of collision.

Method: Data from 1,953 collisions between bicycles and passenger cars were collected using information from third-party-liability insurance claims from 2005 to 2017. The change of speed limit distribution, influenced by the reduction of speed limits in urban areas, where car-to-cyclist collisions occurred was studied. Following that, injury severity for cyclists was evaluated regarding collisions occurring in areas with different speed limits.

Results: The results show that, in collisions with cars, cyclists have a significantly lower risk of a moderate-to-fatal (MAIS 2+) injury when the speed limit is 30–40?km/h compared to 50–60?km/h. During the last decade, while the speed-limit has been lowered on many road-sections in urban areas from 50–60?km/h to 30–40?km/h the risk of a cyclist getting a MAIS 2+ injury decreased by 25%. In 2005 to 2011, 16% of the crashes happened on a road with a speed limit of 30–40?km/h; in 2016–2017, this percentage had increased to approximately 50%. Thus, in recent years more crashes occurred on roads with lower speed limits, and in these crashes, there was a lower risk of severe injuries to cyclists. Unfortunately, it was not possible to evaluate the risk of a crash for specific speed limits; since one limitation of this study was the lack of exposure data, nor do we know the impact speed or the actual speed of the vehicles.

Conclusions: This study is an important follow-up on the implementation of measures that can influence bicycle safety. The insurance data used, made it possible to quantify a positive effect on injury severity for cyclists in passenger car-to-cyclist collisions when the speed limit was reduced in urban areas. Insurance claims cover collisions of all crash severity, so they include data covering all types of injuries—not just the most severe/fatal ones. This aspect is especially important in the speed intervals evaluated here, since moderate (MAIS 2) injuries are very frequent in lower-speed crashes and even these injuries can result in long-term consequences.     

Characteristics of speeders

OBJECTIVE: To determine the characteristics of speeders, defined as drivers of vehicles traveling at least 15 mph above the posted speed limit and relatively faster than surrounding vehicles. METHODS: Vehicle speeds were recorded on 13 roads in Virginia with speed limits ranging from 40 to 55 mph. Speeders were compared with slower drivers, defined as drivers of adjacent vehicles traveling no more than 5 mph above the speed limit. License plates were used to identify vehicle owners; owners were inferred to have been driving if observed gender and estimated age matched those of the registered owner. For these drivers, information on exact driver age and gender, vehicle make and model, and driving record was obtained from the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles. RESULTS: Five percent of the vehicles observed were traveling at least 15 mph above the limit, and 3% qualified as speeders, as defined in this study. Speeders were younger than drivers in the comparison group, drove newer vehicles, and had more speeding violations and other moving violations on their records. They also had 60% more crashes. DISCUSSION: Speeders are a high-risk group. Their speeding behavior is not likely to be controlled without vigorous, consistent enforcement, including the use of automated technology.     

Heat illness among high school athletes--United States, 2005-2009

Introduction

Heat illness is a leading cause of death and disability among U.S. high school athletes.

Methods

To examine the incidence and characteristics of heat illness among high school athletes, CDC analyzed data from the National High School Sports-Related Injury Surveillance Study for the period 2005–2009.

Results

During 2005–2009, the 100 schools sampled reported a total of 118 heat illnesses among high school athletes resulting in ≥ 1 day of time lost from athletic activity, a rate of 1.6 per 100,000 athlete-exposures, and an average of 29.5 time-loss heat illnesses per school year. The average corresponds to a weighted average annual estimate of 9,237 illnesses nationwide. The highest rate of time-loss heat illness was among football players, 4.5 per 100,000 athlete-exposures, a rate 10 times higher than the average rate (0.4) for the eight other sports. Time-loss heat illnesses occurred most frequently during August (66.3%) and while practicing or playing football (70.7%). No deaths were reported.

Conclusions

Consistent with guidelines from the National Athletic Trainers’ Association, to reduce the risk for heat illness, high school athletic programs should implement heat-acclimatization guidelines (e.g., set limits on summer practice duration and intensity). All athletes, coaches, athletic trainers, and parents/guardians should be aware of the risk factors for heat illness, follow recommended strategies, and be prepared to respond quickly to symptoms of illness. Coaches also should continue to stress to their athletes the importance of maintaining proper hydration before, during, and after sports activities.

Impact of industry

By implementing preventive recommendations and quickly recognizing and responding to heat illness, coaches, athletic trainers, and the sporting community can prevent future deaths.     

Health Impact of Injuries: A Population-Based Epidemiological Investigation in a Local Community of Bangladesh

Due to the lack of valid injury data, the objective of this study was to assess the injury morbidity and mortality in a local community of Bangladesh. A population-based survey of 3,258 households was conducted in 1996. The information was collected by trained field-level health workers using three pretested structured forms. The estimated crude morbidity from injuries was 311 per 1,000 population per year, and injury accounted for 13% of all morbidity. The children and old-age groups experienced higher injury rates than others, and male children aged 5–15 years had the highest incidence rates (546/1,000 person-years). Falls and cutting injuries tended to be the most frequently (62.4%) observed types of injuries in this survey. The home (42%) and workplace (42%) were where most of the injuries occurred, and the majority (70.7%) of the injuries were minor. Of all deaths, mortality from injuries was 2.9%, and drowning (27.8%) and homicide (16.7%) were found as common forms of injury-causing deaths. This study invites more detailed investigation on injury morbidity and mortality.     

The effectiveness of lane departure warning systems—A reduction in real-world passenger car injury crashes

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the safety benefits of in vehicle lane departure warning (LDW) and lane keeping aid (LKA) systems in reducing relevant real-world passenger car injury crashes.

Methods: The study used an induced exposure method, where LDW/LKA-sensitive and nonsensitive crashes were compared for Volvo passenger cars equipped with and without LDW/LKA systems. These crashes were matched by car make, model, model year, and technical equipment; that is, low-speed autonomous emergency braking (AEB) called City Safety (CS). The data were extracted from the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition database (STRADA) and consisted of 1,853 driver injury crashes that involved 146 LDW-equipped cars, 11 LKA-equipped cars, and 1,696 cars without LDW/LKA systems.

Results: The analysis showed a positive effect of the LDW/LKA systems in reducing lane departure crashes. The LDW/LKA systems were estimated to reduce head-on and single-vehicle injury crashes on Swedish roads with speed limits between 70 and 120 km/h and with dry or wet road surfaces (i.e., not covered by ice or snow) by 53% with a lower limit of 11% (95% confidence interval [CI]). This reduction corresponded to a reduction of 30% with a lower limit of 6% (95% CI) for all head-on and single-vehicle driver injury crashes (including all speed limits and all road surface conditions).

Conclusions: LDW/LKA systems were estimated to lower the driver injury risk in crash types that the systems are designed to prevent; that is, head-on and single-vehicle crashes. Though these are important findings, they were based on a small data set. Therefore, further research is desirable to evaluate the effectiveness of LDW/LKA systems under real-world conditions and to differentiate the effectiveness between technical solutions (i.e., LDW and LKA) proposed by different manufacturers.     

Effects of vehicle power on passenger vehicle speeds

Objectives: During the past 2 decades, there have been large increases in mean horsepower and the mean horsepower-to–vehicle weight ratio for all types of new passenger vehicles in the United States. This study examined the relationship between travel speeds and vehicle power, defined as horsepower per 100 pounds of vehicle weight.

Methods: Speed cameras measured travel speeds and photographed license plates and drivers of passenger vehicles traveling on roadways in Northern Virginia during daytime off-peak hours in spring 2013. The driver licensing agencies in the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia provided vehicle information numbers (VINs) by matching license plate numbers with vehicle registration records and provided the age, gender, and ZIP code of the registered owner(s). VINs were decoded to obtain the curb weight and horsepower of vehicles. The study focused on 26,659 observed vehicles for which information on horsepower was available and the observed age and gender of drivers matched vehicle registration records. Log-linear regression estimated the effects of vehicle power on mean travel speeds, and logistic regression estimated the effects of vehicle power on the likelihood of a vehicle traveling over the speed limit and more than 10 mph over the limit.

Results: After controlling for driver characteristics, speed limit, vehicle type, and traffic volume, a 1-unit increase in vehicle power was associated with a 0.7% increase in mean speed, a 2.7% increase in the likelihood of a vehicle exceeding the speed limit by any amount, and an 11.6% increase in the likelihood of a vehicle exceeding the limit by 10 mph. All of these increases were highly significant.

Conclusions: Speeding persists as a major factor in crashes in the United States. There are indications that travel speeds have increased in recent years. The current findings suggest the trend toward substantially more powerful vehicles may be contributing to higher speeds. Given the strong association between travel speed and crash risk and crash severity, this is cause for concern.     

Analyses of rear-end crashes based on classification tree models

OBJECTIVE: Signalized intersections are accident-prone areas especially for rear-end crashes due to the fact that the diversity of the braking behaviors of drivers increases during the signal change. The objective of this article is to improve knowledge of the relationship between rear-end crashes occurring at signalized intersections and a series of potential traffic risk factors classified by driver characteristics, environments, and vehicle types. METHODS: Based on the 2001 Florida crash database, the classification tree method and Quasi-induced exposure concept were used to perform the statistical analysis. Two binary classification tree models were developed in this study. One was used for the crash comparison between rear-end and non-rear-end to identify those specific trends of the rear-end crashes. The other was constructed for the comparison between striking vehicles/drivers (at-fault) and struck vehicles/drivers (not-at-fault) to find more complex crash pattern associated with the traffic attributes of driver, vehicle, and environment. RESULTS: The modeling results showed that the rear-end crashes are over-presented in the higher speed limits (45-55 mph); the rear-end crash propensity for daytime is apparently larger than nighttime; and the reduction of braking capacity due to wet and slippery road surface conditions would definitely contribute to rear-end crashes, especially at intersections with higher speed limits. The tree model segmented drivers into four homogeneous age groups: < 21 years, 21-31 years, 32-75 years, and > 75 years. The youngest driver group shows the largest crash propensity; in the 21-31 age group, the male drivers are over-involved in rear-end crashes under adverse weather conditions and the 32-75 years drivers driving large size vehicles have a larger crash propensity compared to those driving passenger vehicles. CONCLUSIONS: Combined with the quasi-induced exposure concept, the classification tree method is a proper statistical tool for traffic-safety analysis to investigate crash propensity. Compared to the logistic regression models, tree models have advantages for handling continuous independent variables and easily explaining the complex interaction effect with more than two independent variables. This research recommended that at signalized intersections with higher speed limits, reducing the speed limit to 40 mph efficiently contribute to a lower accident rate. Drivers involved in alcohol use may increase not only rear-end crash risk but also the driver injury severity. Education and enforcement countermeasures should focus on the driver group younger than 21 years. Further studies are suggested to compare crash risk distributions of the driver age for other main crash types to seek corresponding traffic countermeasures.