中国洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施耦合协调性研究

结构式与非结构式减灾措施是构成洪涝灾害防治体系的两个相互补充、相互促进的子系统,基于2008—2018年的面板数据,构建中国洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施耦合协调度评价指标体系,引入耦合协调度模型测度中国洪涝灾害结构式与非结构式减灾措施建设水平以及两者间的耦合度和耦合协调度,以期进一步提升我国洪涝灾害防治体系的防灾减...     

THE CANADIAN FLOOD DAMAGE REDUCTION PROGRAM

Ad hoc investments in structural flood control measures and continuing high disaster assistance payments by both senior levels of government have often failed to reduce the damage sustained due to floods in Canada. The national Hood Damage Reduction Program, undertaken by the federal government in conjunction with the provinces, has a new comprehensive approach. This joint program emphasizes the non-structural means of reducing flood damages over the long term but also allows for structural measures where these offer the best solution for existing development in the flood plain. The historical and constitutional context, the rationale and details of the program and its success to date are outlined.     

城市生命线系统的非工程防灾减灾

城市生命线系统的防灾减灾分为工程措施和非工程措施，研究和实践通常都偏重于前者。从工程措施作用的有限性、新型生命线系统灾害的特点及灾害损失类型的变化论证了加强非工程措施的必要性，进而说明了如何从管理体制、技术立法、灾害保险及灾害教育等方面构建城市生命线系统的非工程防灾减灾体系。     

Changes in HIV/AIDS/STI knowledge, attitudes and practices among commercial sex workers and military forces in Port Loko, Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone suffered from 11 years of civil war (1991-2002) resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and mutilations together with massive population displacement. In 2001, ARC International, Sierra Leone conducted a baseline survey of 201 commercial sex workers (CSWs) and 202 military respondents on the knowledge, attitudes and practices surrounding HIV/AIDS and STIs in Port Loko, Sierra Leone. In 2003, a comparable post-intervention survey of 202 CSWs and 205 military respondents was performed. Comparison of baseline and post-intervention results showed that HIV/AIDS knowledge increased among both groups, with those able to name three effective means of avoiding AIDS increasing from 5 per cent to 70 per cent among CSWs, and 11 to 75 per cent among the military. Reported condom use during last sex increased among CSWs from 38 to 68 per cent and among military from 39 to 68 per cent. These results demonstrate that, despite the challenges inherent in a post-conflict country, good-quality AIDS-prevention programmes can be effective.     

How structural mitigation shapes risk perception and affects decision‐making

This paper reviews the relationships between risk perception and structural measures in an Australian context in three respects: (i) opinions about authorities’ ability to mitigate flood risks; (ii) the role of flood experience in shaping views on risk; and (iii) perspectives on the ways in which structural measures shape decision‐making pertaining to protective action. The main finding of this analysis is that the study participants do not suffer from the ‘levee paradox'. Most take precautionary steps to guard against residual flood risk. Such actions, however, do not mean that there is a lack of trust in structural measures to reduce significant flood risk. The majority of the respondents agreed about the necessity of engineering structures to mitigate inherent flood risk. This support, though, does not extend to their management. Losses during major flooding in southeast Queensland, Australia, in 2010–11 were attributed primarily by residents to operational decisions concerning dam water releases.     

试析洪水灾害增长的社会因素

自然灾害的本质属性是社会问题。社会的发展,环境的改变以至防洪工程的兴建都影响以至增大灾害的损失。因此,减轻洪水灾害的有效途径,一方面要尽可能控制自然态洪水的泛滥,另一方面则应调整社会的发展布局、有关的对策和实践活动以适应洪水。我国的防洪方针应进一步从单纯注重调动工程手段去控制洪水,向工程与非工程防洪相结合的方向发展,动员全社会投入,从而有效地提高防洪减灾的能力。     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

防洪减灾观念的理论进展--灾害双重属性概念及其科学哲学基础

提出灾害的双重属性概念,是国际减灾十年活动中的重要理论进展之一,已被国家防洪减灾主管部门所采纳,被认为是防洪减灾方针转变的理论基础.作者总结了多年来的研究心得,论述了灾害双重属性概念的实质,以及它和工程与非工程相结合的减灾措施之异同.论述了这个科学概念系来源于我国传统治水理念和西方现代防洪减灾思想,并阐述了这一概念的科学和哲学基础.     

Hurricane Harvey and Greater Houston households: comparing pre-event preparedness with post-event health effects,event exposures,and recovery

Most disaster studies rely on convenience sampling and ‘after-only’ designs to assess impacts. This paper, focusing on Hurricane Harvey (2017) and leveraging a pre-/post-event sample of Greater Houston households (n=71) in the United States, establishes baselines for disaster preparedness and home structure flood hazard mitigation, explores household-level ramifications, and examines how preparedness and mitigation relate to health effects, event exposures, and recovery. Between 70 and 80 per cent of participants instituted preparedness measures. Mitigation actions varied: six per cent had interior drainage systems and 83 per cent had elevated indoor heating/cooling components. Sixty per cent reported home damage. One-half highlighted allergies and two-thirds indicated some level of post-traumatic stress (PTS). Three-quarters worried about family members/friends. The results of generalised linear models revealed that greater pre- event mitigation was associated with fewer physical health problems and adverse experiences, lower PTS, and faster recovery. The study design exposed the broad benefits of home structure flood hazard mitigation for households after Harvey.     

Risk of flood-related mortality in Nepal

In July 1993, severe flooding devastated Sarlahi district in Nepal. The next month, a follow-up study of a large population cohort was undertaken. The study is unique in that a prospective research database was used to verify residency prior to the flood and to confirm vital status afterwards. It evaluated 41,501 children aged between two and nine years and adults aged 15-70 in 7,252 households. Flood-related fatality rates were 13.3 per 1,000 for girls and 9.4 per 1,000 for boys, 6.1 per 1,000 for women and 4.1 per 1,000 for men. Flood-related fatality rates for children were six times higher than mortality rates in the same villages a year before the flood (relative risk (RR) = 5.9, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 5.0-6.8). Flood-related fatality was associated with low socio-economic status preflood (RR = 6.4, 95 per cent CI 2.7-20.0), and having a house constructed of thatch (RR = 5.1, 95 per cent CI 1.7-24.5).     

Concerns and future preparedness plans of a vulnerable population in New Jersey following Hurricane Sandy

Knowing how people prepare for disasters is essential to developing resiliency strategies. This study examined recalled concerns, evacuation experiences, and the future preparedness plans of a vulnerable population in New Jersey, United States, following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Understanding the responses of minority communities is key to protecting them during forthcoming disasters. Overall, 35 per cent of respondents were not going to prepare for an event. Intended future preparedness actions were unrelated to respondents' ratings of personal impact. More Blacks and Hispanics planned on preparing than Whites (68 versus 55 per cent), and more Hispanics planned on evacuating than did others who were interviewed. A higher percentage of respondents who had trouble getting to health centres were going to prepare than others. Respondents' concerns were connected to safety and survival, protecting family and friends, and having enough food and medicine, whereas future actions included evacuating earlier and buying sufficient supplies to shelter in place.     

Reproductive health in Afghanistan: results of a knowledge, attitudes and practices survey among Afghan women in Kabul

A reproductive-health knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey was carried out among 468 Afghan women of reproductive age. A convenience sample of women was selected from attendees in the outpatient departments of four health facilities in Kabul. Seventy-nine per cent of respondents had attended at least one antenatal consultation during their last pregnancy. Two-thirds (67 per cent) delivered their first child between 13 and 19 years. The Caesarean-section rate was low (1.6 per cent). Two-thirds (67 per cent) of deliveries occurred in the home. The contraceptive prevalence rate was 23 per cent (16 per cent modern and 7 per cent natural methods). Twenty-four per cent had knowledge of any STIs, although most of these women did not know correctly how to prevent them. Most of the women (93 per cent) needed authorization from their husband or a male relative before seeking professional health-care. In multivariate analysis, women's schooling was significantly associated with antenatal-care attendance (AOR 4.78), institutional delivery (AOR 2.29), skilled attendance at birth (AOR 2.07) and use of family planning (AOR 4.59). Reproductive-health indicators were noted to be poor even among these women living in Kabul, a group often considered to be the most privileged. To meet the reproductive-health needs of Afghan women, the socio-cultural aspects of their situation--especially their decision-making abilities -- will need to be addressed. A long-standing commitment from agencies and donors is required, in which the education of women should be placed as a cornerstone of the reconstruction process of Afghanistan.     

A determination of the prevalence of gender-based violence among conflict-affected populations in East Timor

The Reproductive Health Response in Conflict (RHRC) Consortium designed a standardised questionnaire to measure gender-based violence (GBV) prevalence in conflict-affected settings. A preliminary field test was undertaken July-August 2002 in one urban and one rural district in East Timor to assess the prevalence of GBV among women 18-49 years of age during and after conflict. The field test used a cross-sectional survey design with a two-stage random selection process. During the year preceding East Timor's 1999 crisis, 23.8 per cent of respondents reported physical assault by an intimate partner; this rate was not significantly different in the year preceding the survey (24.8 per cent). Assault by perpetrators outside the family declined significantly from 24.2 per cent during the crisis to 5.8 per cent post-crisis for physical assault (p<.001) and 22.7 per cent during the crisis to 9.7 per cent post-crisis for sexual assault (p=0.046). The field test stimulated and informed additional research in East Timor, and the complementary findings of these research initiatives continue to be used to develop local policies and programming to prevent and address GBV.     

Institutional Arrangements for Flood Hazards in Malaysia: An Evaluation Using the Criteria Approach

Institutional aspects of flood hazards significantly affect their outcomes in Malaysia. Institutional arrangements to deal with floods include: legislative activity, organisational structures, attitudes and sub-culture, and policies and instruments. When assessed in terms of four specific criteria, institutional aspects of flood hazards are found to be largely inadequate. Disaster reduction programmes are over-dependent on a reactive approach based largely on technology and not even aimed at floods specifically. Structual flood reduction measures are the predominant management tool and, although the importance of non-structural measures is recognised, thus far they have been under-employed. Current laws and regulations with regard to flood management are also insufficient and both the financial and human resources of flood hazard organisations are generally found to be wanting. Finally, economic efficiency, equity and public accountability issues are not adequately addressed by institutional arrangements for flood hazards.     

A multiple additive regression tree analysis of three exposure measures during Hurricane Katrina

This paper analyses structural and personal exposure to Hurricane Katrina. Structural exposure is measured by flood height and building damage; personal exposure is measured by the locations of 911 calls made during the response. Using these variables, this paper characterises the geography of exposure and also demonstrates the utility of a robust analytical approach in understanding health‐related challenges to disadvantaged populations during recovery. Analysis is conducted using a contemporary statistical approach, a multiple additive regression tree (MART), which displays considerable improvement over traditional regression analysis. By using MART, the percentage of improvement in R‐squares over standard multiple linear regression ranges from about 62 to more than 100 per cent. The most revealing finding is the modelled verification that African Americans experienced disproportionate exposure in both structural and personal contexts. Given the impact of exposure to health outcomes, this finding has implications for understanding the long‐term health challenges facing this population.     

Needs assessment of the displaced population following the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey

In August 1999 a major earthquake struck north-western Turkey. An assessment followed to identify the immediate needs of the displaced population. A random cluster sample of displaced families living in temporary shelter outside of organised relief camps was designed. Representatives of 230 households from the four communities worse affected by the earthquake were interviewed. Most families lived in makeshift shelters (84 per cent), used bottled water (91 per cent), obtained food from relief organisations (61 per cent), had access to latrines (90 per cent), had a member on routine medication (53 per cent) and obtained information by word of mouth (81 per cent). Many respondents reported having family members who were over the age of 65 (32 per cent) or under age three (20 per cent), who were pregnant (6 per cent), or who had been ill since the earthquake (64 per cent). The greatest immediate need reported by most families was shelter requirements (37 per cent), followed by food (23 per cent) and hygiene requirements (19 per cent). Ten days after the earthquake, basic environmental health needs of food, shelter and hygiene still predominated in this displaced population. Significant portions may have special needs due to age or illness.     

Flood risk and inequalities between ethnic groups in the floodplains of England and Wales

Previous research has shown that many vulnerable communities experience disproportional exposure to flood risk. This paper, though, is the first to look at broad ethnic/racial group differences in the United Kingdom. It contends that differences in culture and language, especially those of new immigrants, bestow vulnerabilities on such communities, resulting in a lack of knowledge that enables people to be aware, to be prepared, or to recover expediently after a flood emergency. Using UK 2011 Census data and Environment Agency flood maps, the paper demonstrates that it is the non‐white communities in Wales that confront the most disproportionate level of flood risk: 23 per cent as compared to 11.4 per cent of their white neighbours. In contrast, the difference in flood risk between white and non‐white ethnic/racial groups in regions of England is within a range of plus or minus two per cent, except for in Yorkshire and The Humber where white populations face a much greater risk of flooding.     

Mother's body mass index as a predictor of infant's nutritional status in the post-emergency phase of a flood

Maternal nutritional status is a determinant of child health. This paper studies the association between a mother's body mass index (BMI) and her infant's nutritional status over a one year time frame after the 1998 flood crisis in Bangladesh. The paper uses secondary analysis of data collected from 757 households in seven rural areas of Bangladesh affected by the 1998 flood using multiple-stage probability sampling techniques (n = 143). Logistic regression models were employed to investigate the predictive impact of maternal BMI on infant's nutritional status after controlling for a range of child and maternal factors. An underweight mother was a significant factor with regard to the risk of infants suffering stunting (odds ratio (OR) = 4.45, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-18.94) and being underweight (OR = 3.51, 95 per cent CI = 1.02-12.05) a year later, but not wasting (OR = 2.09, 95 per cent CI = 0.51-8.67). The findings suggest that there is a post-emergency link between maternal and infant nutritional health.     

Economic effects of riverbank erosion: some evidence from bangladesh

In this paper I investigate some of the economic effects of riverbank erosion in Bangladesh. The study was conducted in one village over the period 1979–89. Between these dates the village lost almost 20 per cent of its farmland to riverbank erosion. This resulted in a loss of more than 50 per cent of crop income (at 1989 prices). About 45 per cent of households were affected during the period. It appears, however, that there is little understanding among the relevant government agencies and non-governmental organisations of the severity of riverbank erosion in Bangladesh. This article aims to provide, therefore, some basic information on the various economic effects of this natural hazard.     

The 1998 Flood in Bangladesh: Is Different Targeting Needed During Emergencies and Recovery to Tackle Malnutrition?

Bangladesh suffered the century's worst flood during July-October 1998 and appealed for assistance. To provide information for appropriate interventions to tackle nutritional problems, a rapid assessment survey was conducted to look at the nutritional situation, problems encountered by the community, their coping mechanisms and rehabilitation priorities in six rural areas. The survey was repeated after four months to measure the outcome of activities during the flood and the necessity for future assistance. There were 3,048 children measured in both surveys (1,597 and 1,451). The sample of most interest was a sub-group of 180 children present in two previous independent surveys. The analysis found that while moving from the crisis period to post-flood phase there was evidence of a 'crossover phenomenon' in the recovery pattern of nutritional status. Sixty-eight per cent of the children who were malnourished (WHZ < -2SD) during the crisis period (18 per cent) recovered enough to cross the cut-off point and became normal after four months. Another 8 per cent of children (9 per cent of all normal) who were normal during the crisis period, after four months had deteriorated to be malnourished. Thus, despite there being a shift in the overall distribution of nutritional status, there has been another shift that reduced the net effect. Subsequent episodes of diarrhoea, access to food and loan burden had also influenced the recovery pattern of the children's nutritional status as evident from the statistically significant associations. These findings raise questions about targeting acute malnutrition during emergencies, and using the same criteria during both the crisis and rehabilitation phases.