Development,Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.     

Predicting the Impacts of Future Sea-Level Rise on an Endangered Lagomorph

Human-induced global climate change presents a unique and difficult challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. Despite increasing attention on global climate change, few studies have assessed the projected impacts of sea-level rise to threatened and endangered species. Therefore, we estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) across its geographic distribution under scenarios of current conditions, low (0.3-m), medium (0.6-m), and high (0.9-m) sea-level rise. We also investigated the impacts of allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration and of two land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of human-dominated areas). Not surprisingly, under all simulations we found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce the impact of global climate change on biodiversity and endangered species. At the regional level, managers must consider land-use planning needs that take into account the needs of both humans and biodiversity. Finally, at the local scale those agencies that are in charge of endangered species conservation and ecosystem management need to rethink static approaches to conservation or else stand by and watch ecosystems degrade and species go extinct. This can be accomplished by bioclimatic reserve systems where climatically underrepresented areas are included in conservation planning along with the standard concerns of threat, opportunity, connectivity, and viability.     

From climate change impacts to adaptation: A development perspective for India

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio‐economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less‐GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change.     

A Drinking Water Crisis in Lake Taihu, China: Linkage to Climatic Variability and Lake Management

In late May, 2007, a drinking water crisis took place in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China, following a massive bloom of the toxin producing cyanobacteria Microcystis spp. in Lake Taihu, China’s third largest freshwater lake. Taihu was the city’s sole water supply, leaving approximately two million people without drinking water for at least a week. This cyanobacterial bloom event began two months earlier than previously documented for Microcystis blooms in Taihu. This was attributed to an unusually warm spring. The prevailing wind direction during this period caused the bloom to accumulate at the shoreline near the intake of the water plant. Water was diverted from the nearby Yangtze River in an effort to flush the lake of the bloom. However, this management action was counterproductive, because it produced a current which transported the bloom into the intake, exacerbating the drinking water contamination problem. The severity of this microcystin toxin containing bloom and the ensuing drinking water crisis were attributable to excessive nutrient enrichment; however, a multi-annual warming trend extended the bloom period and amplified its severity, and this was made worse by unanticipated negative impacts of water management. Long-term management must therefore consider both the human and climatic factors controlling these blooms and their impacts on water supply in this and other large lakes threatened by accelerating eutrophication.     

A note on the use of the analytic hierarchy process for environmental impact assessment

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is an intrinsically complex multi-dimensional process, involving multiple criteria and multiple actors. Multi-criteria methods can serve as useful decision aids for carrying out the EIA. This paper proposes the use of a multi-criteria technique, namely the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), for the purpose. AHP has the flexibility to combine quantitative and qualitative factors, to handle different groups of actors, to combine the opinions expressed by many experts, and can help in stakeholder analysis. The main shortcomings of AHP and some modifications to it to overcome the shortcomings are briefly described. Finally, the use of AHP is illustrated for a case study involving socio-economic impact assessment. In this case study, AHP has been used for capturing the perceptions of stakeholders on the relative severity of different socio-economic impacts, which will help the authorities in prioritizing their environmental management plan, and can also help in allocating the budget available for mitigating adverse socio-economic impacts.     

The comparison of a revised Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods in environmental impact assessment,a case study: The construction of Al‐A'amiriya residential complex,Baghdad, Iraq

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is an efficient method to recognize and alleviate the unfavorable and inevitable impacts of human activity on the environment. The EIA is dependent on expert opinions, which can be influenced by personal experience and knowledge. To evaluate this influence, we carried out EIA of 6,000 residential apartment units of Al‐A'amiriya, Baghdad, Iraq, using a revised Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods. The matrix results reflected the direct opinions of experts. The fuzzy method was developed according to the principles of expert comments. In the matrix method, the environmental impacts of each activity were evaluated by scores between −5 (very bad) to 5 (very good). The inputs to the fuzzy method were intensity and weather stability. The fuzzy estimation of the environmental impact was composed of a group of three values; P1 as the intensity, P2 as the extent, and P3 as the persistence. We gathered the expert opinions and used the Analytical Hierarchical Process to determine the weighting coefficient of each fuzzy anticipation. The matrix method was dependent on the expert opinions. The mean values of the matrix and P‐values in each column and row scores depict the impacts of a project on the environmental aspects and each element of construction on the environment. The comparison of the results indicated an average difference of 30% between the Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods. In regard to the availability and sufficiency of data, the difference was around 10%.     

Test of a Model to Assess the Condition of Lodgepole Pine Stands

/ A predictive model for assessing stand condition as a function of suitability for achieving specified management objectives was originally developed using a data set for only 28 stands. In this study, we evaluate the model using an operational-sized data set composed of currently collected stand inventory data for 238 stands in the Snowy Range of the Medicine Bow National Forest in southern Wyoming. We compared its predictions of old growth suitability to results of a separate special old growth survey. Stands were characterized as profiles of variables derived from stand inventory data, and plotted as points in two-dimensional space where similarity between stands was reflected by the distance between their points. Results suggest the model is useful for classifying stand condition using relatively large sets of data currently collected during routine stand inventories.     

Effects of Place Identity,Place Dependence,and Experience-Use History on Perceptions of Recreation Impacts in a Natural Setting

It is generally accepted that recreation use in natural environments results in some degree of negative social and environmental impact. Environmental managers are tasked with mitigating the impact while providing beneficial recreation opportunities. Research on the factors that influence visitors' perceptions of environmental and social conditions is necessary to inform sound environmental management of protected natural areas. This study examines the effect of prior experience with the setting and two dimensions of place attachment (i.e., place identity and place dependence) on visitors' perceptions of three types of recreation impacts (i.e., depreciative behavior, environmental impacts, and recreation conflict). Principal components analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling were used to test the study hypotheses using data collected from 351 visitors through on-site questionnaires (response rate of 93 percent). The results show that prior experience exhibited a moderate and significant direct positive effect on place identity, place dependence, and visitors' perceptions of recreation impacts. Contrary to study hypotheses and prior research, neither place dependence nor place identity exhibited a significant effect on the dependent variables. The results show that prior experience causes visitors to be more sensitive to depreciative behaviors, environmental impacts, and recreation conflict. These findings raise concerns over potential visitor displacement and deterioration of site conditions. Implications for resource managers are discussed, which include education, modifying visitor use patterns, and site design strategies.     

Long‐Term Streamflow Response to Climatic Variability in the Loess Plateau,China1

Abstract: The Loess Plateau region in northwestern China has experienced severe water resource shortages due to the combined impacts of climate and land use changes and water resource exploitation during the past decades. This study was designed to examine the impacts of climatic variability on streamflow characteristics of a 12‐km² watershed near Tianshui City, Gansu Province in northwestern China. Statistic analytical methods including Kendall’s trend test and stepwise regression were used to detect trends in relationship between observed streamflow and climatic variables. Sensitivity analysis based on an evapotranspiration model was used to detect quantitative hydrologic sensitivity to climatic variability. We found that precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and streamflow (Q) were not statistically significantly different (p > 0.05) over the study period between 1982 and 2003. Stepwise regression and sensitivity analysis all indicated that P was more influential than PET in affecting annual streamflow, but the similar relationship existed at the monthly scale. The sensitivity of streamflow response to variations of P and PET increased slightly with the increase in watershed dryness (PET/P) as well as the increase in runoff ratio (Q/P). This study concluded that future changes in climate, precipitation in particular, will significantly impact water resources in the Loess Plateau region an area that is already experiencing a decreasing trend in water yield.     

Modeling the Influence of Dynamic Zoning of Forest Harvesting on Ecological Succession in a Northern Hardwoods Landscape

Dynamic zoning (systematic alteration in the spatial and temporal allocation of even-aged forest management practices) has been proposed as a means to change the spatial pattern of timber harvest across a landscape to maximize forest interior habitat while holding timber harvest levels constant. Simulation studies have established that dynamic zoning strategies produce larger tracts of interior, closed canopy forest, thus increasing the value of these landscapes for interior-dependent wildlife. We used the simulation model LANDIS to examine how the implementation of a dynamic zoning strategy would change trajectories of ecological succession in the Great Divide Ranger District of the Chequamegon–Nicolet National Forest in northern Wisconsin over 500 years. The components of dynamic zoning strategies (number of zones in a scenario and the length of the hiatus between successive entries into zones) and their interaction had highly significant impacts on patterns of forest succession. Dynamic zoning scenarios with more zones and shorter hiatus lengths increased the average amount of the forest dominated by early successional aspen (Populus sp.). Dynamic zoning scenarios with two zones produced more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with four zones. Dynamic zoning scenarios with very short (30 years) or very long (120 years) hiatus lengths resulted in more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with intermediate hiatus lengths (60 and 90 years). However, none of the dynamic scenarios produced as much late successional mature northern hardwoods as the static alternative. Furthermore, the amounts of all habitat types in all dynamic zoning scenarios fluctuated greatly in time and space relative to static alternatives, which could negatively impact wildlife species that require a stable amount of habitat above some minimum critical threshold. Indeed, implementing dynamic zoning scenarios of different designs would have both positive and negative effects on wildlife species and for other objectives of forest management.     

Co-development of an integrated assessment framework to evaluate the effectiveness and impact of selected nature-based water treatment technologies in Sri Lanka,The Philippines,and Vietnam

Water quality is a critical challenge in Asia in the context of growing industrialization, urbanization, and climate change. Nature-based solutions (NbS) could play an important role in reducing urban water pollution, while generating multiple co-benefits that could make cities more liveable and resilient. In this regard, a number of pilot and demonstration projects have been set up to explore their potential across cities in Asia. Their effectiveness and impacts, however, have not been adequately documented, thus how they can be sustained, replicated and up-scaled remain poorly understood. This study aims to contribute to addressing this challenge by co-developing an integrated assessment framework and employing it to understand how existing evaluations of NbS in the region can be improved. It focuses specifically on a set of nature-based solutions that have been employed for water treatment across six cities in Southeast Asia (two in each Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Vietnam), namely, floating wetlands, constructed wetlands and maturation ponds. The study also suggests specific methodologies for capturing a set of core indicators considered relevant for assessing the effectiveness and capturing the multi-faceted impacts of the examined NbS.     

Food Security in the Face of Climate Change,Population Growth,and Resource Constraints: Implications for Bangladesh

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO₂ fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm³, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.     

Assessing the Potential Impacts to Riparian Ecosystems Resulting from Hemlock Mortality in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is spreading across forests in eastern North America, causing mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carr.) and Carolina hemlock (Tsuga caroliniana Engelm.). The loss of hemlock from riparian forests in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) may result in significant physical, chemical, and biological alterations to stream environments. To assess the influence of riparian hemlock stands on stream conditions and estimate possible impacts from hemlock loss in GSMNP, we paired hardwood- and hemlock-dominated streams to examine differences in water temperature, nitrate concentrations, pH, discharge, and available photosynthetic light. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify stream pairs that were similar in topography, geology, land use, and disturbance history in order to isolate forest type as a variable. Differences between hemlock- and hardwood-dominated streams could not be explained by dominant forest type alone as forest type yields no consistent signal on measured conditions of headwater streams in GSMNP. The variability in the results indicate that other landscape variables, such as the influence of understory Rhododendron species, may exert more control on stream conditions than canopy composition. The results of this study suggest that the replacement of hemlock overstory with hardwood species will have minimal impact on long-term stream conditions, however disturbance during the transition is likely to have significant impacts. Management of riparian forests undergoing hemlock decline should, therefore, focus on facilitating a faster transition to hardwood-dominated stands to minimize long-term effects on water quality.     

Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Farmers’ Perceptions of Land Degradation and Stonewall Terraces in Central Palestine

Land degradation by soil erosion is a socioeconomic and environmental problem facing many developing countries. Application of stonewall terraces for soil moisture conservation is vital to reducing the environmental impacts of this phenomenon. To this end, a field plot experiment was conducted in the study area along with the use of a closed-ended questionnaire. The object of the experiment was to study the socioeconomic impacts of soil erosion on local farmers and their adoption of the stonewall terrace technique. The study showed a higher net profit in areas that had implemented terrace conservation practices than in areas that had not (i.e., 3.5 to 6 times higher net profit). Correlation analysis indicated that the farmers’ perceptions, land ownership, and geomorphology were significantly related to the farmers’ incentives and willingness to adopt terraces as soil conservation measures (P < 0.05), although the correlations were negative. Smallholder farmers (52% of the interviewed farmers) were involved in the sale of the agricultural land for urban uses, largely because of the high price and immediate returns offered. However, the associated land use changes warrant greater involvement of both the private and public sectors. This cooperation may be accomplished through the introduction of a long-term agricultural loan system and the development of proper legislation accompanied by a comprehensive and durable infrastructure and service system with the goal of reducing the negative impact of land use changes and encouraging sustainable use of resources.     

Balancing Energy Development and Conservation: A Method Utilizing Species Distribution Models

Alternative energy development is increasing, potentially leading to negative impacts on wildlife populations already stressed by other factors. Resource managers require a scientifically based methodology to balance energy development and species conservation, so we investigated modeling habitat suitability using Maximum Entropy to develop maps that could be used with other information to help site energy developments. We selected one species of concern, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (LPCH; Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) found on the southern Great Plains of North America, as our case study. LPCH populations have been declining and are potentially further impacted by energy development. We used LPCH lek locations in the state of Kansas along with several environmental and anthropogenic parameters to develop models that predict the probability of lek occurrence across the landscape. The models all performed well as indicated by the high test area under the curve (AUC) scores (all >0.9). The inclusion of anthropogenic parameters in models resulted in slightly better performance based on AUC values, indicating that anthropogenic features may impact LPCH lek habitat suitability. Given the positive model results, this methodology may provide additional guidance in designing future survey protocols, as well as siting of energy development in areas of marginal or unsuitable habitat for species of concern. This technique could help to standardize and quantify the impacts various developments have upon at-risk species.     

Life-cycle phosphorus use efficiency of the farming system in Anhui Province,Central China

The rapid increase of phosphorus (P) use in farming has raised concerns regarding its conservation and environmental impact. Increasing the P use efficiency (PUE) is an approach to mitigating these adverse impacts. In this study, we applied substance flow analysis (SFA) to establish a life-cycle P use efficiency model to determine the life-cycle PUE of the farming system used in Anhui Province in 2011, which is typical of the agriculture practiced in central China. Based on this model, the P flows and PUEs of five subsystems were identified and quantified: crop farming, crop processing, livestock breeding, rural living, and urban living. The three largest P flows were found in the crop farming and livestock breeding subsystems; it can therefore be concluded that these subsystems have substantial impacts on the entire farming system. In contrast, the PUEs of crop farming, rural consumption, and livestock breeding subsystems presented the three lowest PUEs (58.79%, 71.75%, and 76.65%, respectively). These results were also consistent with the finding that the greatest P losses occurred in crop farming and livestock breeding. Consequently, the study proposes that great potential exists for increasing PUEs in the farming system of Anhui, and several of the most promising measures could be combined for improving PUEs. Finally, the study assesses data quality and presents a sensitivity analysis for use in interpreting the results. The study also shows that improving PUE and decreasing P losses in farming systems through improved nutrient management must be considered an important issue, and this study represents valuable experience in resource conservation and agricultural development in China.     

Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis1

Hester, Erich T. and Martin W. Doyle, 2011. Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):571‐587. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00525.x Abstract: Land‐use change and water resources management increasingly impact stream and river temperatures and therefore aquatic organisms. Efforts at thermal mitigation are expected to grow in future decades. Yet the biological consequences of both human thermal impacts and proposed mitigation options are poorly quantified. This study provides such context for river thermal management in two ways. First, we summarize the full spectrum of human thermal impacts to help thermal managers consider the relative magnitudes of all impacts and mitigation options. Second, we synthesize biological sensitivity to river temperature shifts using thermal performance curves, which relate organism‐level biological processes to temperature. This approach supplements the popular use of thermal thresholds by directly estimating the impact of temperature shifts on the rates of key biological processes (e.g., growth). Our results quantify a diverse array of human thermal impacts, revealing that human actions tend to increase more than decrease river temperatures. Our results also provide a practical framework in which to quantify the sensitivity of river organisms to such impacts and related mitigation options. Finally, among the data and studies we synthesized, river organisms appear to be more sensitive to temperature above than below their thermal maxima, and fish are more sensitive to temperature change than invertebrates.     

Impacts of quarrying activities on the environment and livelihood of people in Border II sub-location,Nyando sub-county,Kisumu County,Kenya

The aim of the study was to assess the impacts of quarrying activities on the environment and livelihood of people in the Border II sub-location. Primary data was collected through questionnaires, Key Informant Interviews, Focus Group Discussion, laboratory analysis and observations. Whereas, secondary data was obtained from Landsat satellite images, journals, articles, books and reports. The acquired data were analyzed using excel and Arc GIS; and presented into tables and figures. The Land use/cover change analysis from the satellite images of the area showed that quarry lands have increased by 5.2 Ha (0.26%). Quarrying activities in the area were perceived to have both positive and negative impacts on the livelihood of people and the environment. Some of the most serious environmental problems were; dust pollution (82%), noise (76%), land degradation (74%), vegetation loss (60%) and vibration (52%). Whereas, negative socioeconomic impacts were; building cracks (54%), injuries (36%), school dropouts (35%), roads damages (33%), child labor (31%) and crop effects (30%). Moreover, 45% of the area residents and 44% of the quarry workers have experienced health problems related to quarrying activities. Nevertheless, there was a significant relationship between quarrying activities and the environmental as well as human health problems in the area (p<0.05). The positive impacts identified are; employment, roads improvement, security, CSR, building materials, business opportunities, among others. To mitigate the negative impacts, the quarry operators should develop and implement an Environmental and Social management Plan, including fair compensation of the project which affect a person, relocation of near homes, environmental pollution control, public participation, scaling down blasting activities, and strict policies compliance and enforcement.     

Postfire Regeneration in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus pinea</Emphasis> L. and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus pinaster</Emphasis> Aiton in Andalucia (Spain)

The objective of this study was to examine postfire regeneration of tree, shrub, and dwarf shrub species, in relation to levels of damage in four planted pine forests (Pinus pinea, Pinus pinaster) in Andalusia. A prefire vegetation map was used for detailing species composition, vertical structure, and density and another for detailing the extent and intensity of fire damage. Between 3 and 7 years after the fires, an inventory was made of the vegetation in each area, using the step-point method. The information thus obtained was used to determine the amount of cover in the dwarf/shrub and tree layers, the frequency of species in each of the layers, floristic richness, and diversity (Shannon index). The botanical composition of the dwarf and shrub layer was analyzed using TWINSPAN. Variables were poorly correlated with level of fire damage, which suggests that the forests in this study followed the autosuccession model. Because of the artificial origin or seminatural condition, regeneration of the dominant tree species is poor, and it seems unlikely that forests will recover to their prefire state. Therefore action is recommended to restore these ecosystems.