Conservation Assessment of Southern South American Freshwater Ecoregions on the Basis of the Distribution and Genetic Diversity of Crabs from the Genus Aegla

Abstract:  We assessed the conservation priority of 18 freshwater ecoregions in southern South America on the basis of Aegla (genus of freshwater crabs) genetic diversity and distribution. Geographical distributions for 66 Aegla species were taken from the literature and plotted against ecoregions and main river basins of southern South America. Species richness and number of threatened and endemic species were calculated for each area. To assess taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, we generated a molecular phylogeny based on DNA sequences for one nuclear (28S) and 4 mitochondrial (12S, 16S, COI, and COII) genes. All species richness and phylogenetic methods agreed, to a large extent, in their rankings of the importance of conservation areas, as indicated by the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient ( p < 0.01); nonetheless, some of the lowest correlations were observed between taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity indices. The 5 ecoregions of the Laguna dos Patos Basin (Eastern Brazil), Central Chile, South Brazilian Coast, Chilean Lakes, and Subtropical Potamic Axis (northern Argentina and southern Uruguay and Paraguay) had the highest biodiversity scores. Conservation of these regions will preserve the largest number of species and the greatest amount of genetic diversity within the South American freshwater Aegla fauna. Biodiversity across rivers and within areas was heterogeneously distributed in the ecoregions of Upper Paraná, Ribeira do Iguape, Upper Uruguay, and South Brazilian Coast (i.e., one river showed significantly more biodiversity than any other river from the same ecoregion), but homogeneously distributed in the other ecoregions. Hence, conservation plans in the former regions will potentially require less effort than plans in the latter regions.     

A Diverse and Endangered Aquatic Ecosystem of the Southeast United States

We document the biodiversity and conservation status of an extraordinarily diverse and endangered ecosystem in the United States that has failed to attract the same attention as tropical ecosystems—the rivers and streams of Alabama and adjoining states. Relative to North America as a whole, Alabama is a highlight of aquatic diversity supporting 38% of native fresh water fishes, 43% of native freshwater gill-breathing snails, 60% of native mussels, and 52% of native freshwater turtles. Of these, 41%, 77%, 34%, and 22% of the fishes, snails, mussels, and turtles, respectively, are endemic to Alabama and an adjacent state. Like many tropical systems of developing nations, this fauna is in an imperiled state, with 10%, 65%, 69%, and 43% of Alabama's fishes, gill-breathing snails, mussels, and turtles, respectively, considered either extinct, endangered, threatened, or of special concern. Unlike tropical systems, however, little effort has been made to protect the taxa and their habitats. Only 40% of fishes, 1% of gill-breathing snails, 32% of mussels, and 20% of freshwater turtles are formally listed as either threatened or endangered via the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973; no critical habitat has been protected. Clearly, the biodiversity crisis in not limited to tropical systems of developing nations. Although the Endangered Species Act of 1973 helps to ensure a future of sustainable diversity, efforts must be made to hasten recognition, protection, and recovery of critical habitat, particularly for hotspots such as the aquatic systems of Alabama.     

Quantitative Determination of Rarity of Freshwater Fishes and Implications for Imperiled‐Species Designations

Abstract: Conserving rare species and protecting biodiversity and ecosystem functioning depends on sound information on the nature of rarity. Rarity is multidimensional and has a variety of definitions, which presents the need for a quantitative classification scheme with which to categorize species as rare or common. We constructed such a classification for North American freshwater fishes to better describe rarity in fishes and provide researchers and managers with a tool to streamline conservation efforts. We used data on range extents, habitat specificities, and local population sizes of North American freshwater fishes and a variety of quantitative methods and statistical decision criteria, including quantile regression and a cost‐function algorithm to determine thresholds for categorizing a species as rare or common. Species fell into eight groups that conform to an established framework for rarity. Fishes listed by the American Fisheries Society (AFS) as endangered, threatened, or vulnerable were most often rare because their local population sizes were low, ranges were small, and they had specific habitat needs, in that order, whereas unlisted species were most often considered common on the basis of these three factors. Species with large ranges generally had few specific habitat needs, whereas those with small ranges tended to have narrow habitat specificities. We identified 30 species not designated as imperiled by AFS that were rare along all dimensions of rarity and may warrant further study or protection, and we found three designated species that were common along all dimensions and may require a review of their imperilment status. Our approach could be applied to other taxa to aid conservation decisions and serve as a useful tool for future revisions of listings of fish species.     

Fish-Passage Facilities as Ecological Traps in Large Neotropical Rivers

Abstract:  At present most of the large rivers of South America are impounded. Management plans historically have relied on the construction of fish passages, specifically ladders, to mitigate the impact of these waterway blockages on fisheries and biodiversity. Nevertheless, the design of these facilities is not ecologically sound and they are not monitored continually. Consequently, the real role of South American fish passages in fisheries and biodiversity management is unclear and the results of some studies suggest that ladders are problematic in fish conservation. We examined the characteristics and negative aspects of fish passages within a larger context and considered the notion that these facilities are ecological traps in some Brazilian impoundments. Four conditions are required to characterize a fish passage as an ecological trap: (1) attractive forces leading fish to ascend the passage; (2) unidirectional migratory movements (upstream); (3) the environment above the passage has poor conditions for fish recruitment (e.g., the absence of spawning grounds and nursery areas); and (4) the environment below the passage has a proper structure for recruitment. When these conditions exist individuals move to poor-quality habitats, fitness is reduced, and populations are threatened. To exemplify this situation we analyzed two case studies in the upper Paraná River basin, Brazil, in which the four conditions were met and migratory fish populations were declining. If passages work as ecological traps, regional fisheries will be in danger of collapse and conservation policies toward biodiversity will become more difficult and ineffective. The situation demands the closing of the passage in conjunction with alternative management actions to preserve system functionality, especially the conservation of critical habitats downstream and the restoration of damaged habitats in the region.     

Microsatellite variation and significant population genetic structure of endangered finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides) in Chinese coastal waters and the Yangtze River

The finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides) inhabits a wide range of tropical and temperate waters of the Indo-Pacific region. Genetic structure of finless porpoises in Chinese waters in three regions (Yangtze River, Yellow Sea, and South China Sea) was analyzed, including the Yangtze finless porpoise which is widely known because of its highly endangered status and unusual adaptation to freshwater. To assist in conservation and management of this species, ten microsatellite loci were used to genotype 125 individuals from the three regions. Contrary to the low genetic diversity revealed in previous mtDNA control region sequence analyses, relatively high levels of genetic variation in microsatellite profiles (H _E = 0.732–0.795) were found. Bayesian clustering analysis suggested that finless porpoises in Chinese waters could be described as three distinct genetic groups, which corresponded well to population “units” (populations, subspecies, or species) delimited in earlier studies, based on morphological variation, distribution, and genetic analyses. Genetic differentiation between regions was significant, with F _ST values ranging from 0.07 to 0.137. Immigration rates estimated using a Bayesian method and population ancestry analyses suggested no or very limited gene flow among regional types, even in the area of overlap between types. These results strongly support the classification of porpoises in these regions into distinct evolutionarily significant units, including at least two separate species, and therefore they should be treated as different management units in the design and implementation of conservation programmes.     

Knowledge co‐production and boundary work to promote implementation of conservation plans

Knowledge co‐production and boundary work offer planners a new frame for critically designing a social process that fosters collaborative implementation of resulting plans. Knowledge co‐production involves stakeholders from diverse knowledge systems working iteratively toward common vision and action. Boundary work is a means of creating permeable knowledge boundaries that satisfy the needs of multiple social groups while guarding the functional integrity of contributing knowledge systems. Resulting products are boundary objects of mutual interest that maintain coherence across all knowledge boundaries. We examined how knowledge co‐production and boundary work can bridge the gap between planning and implementation and promote cross‐sectoral cooperation. We applied these concepts to well‐established stages in regional conservation planning within a national scale conservation planning project aimed at identifying areas for conserving rivers and wetlands of South Africa and developing an institutional environment for promoting their conservation. Knowledge co‐production occurred iteratively over 4 years in interactive stake‐holder workshops that included co‐development of national freshwater conservation goals and spatial data on freshwater biodiversity and local conservation feasibility; translation of goals into quantitative inputs that were used in Marxan to select draft priority conservation areas; review of draft priority areas; and packaging of resulting map products into an atlas and implementation manual to promote application of the priority area maps in 37 different decision‐making contexts. Knowledge co‐production stimulated dialogue and negotiation and built capacity for multi‐scale implementation beyond the project. The resulting maps and information integrated diverse knowledge types of over 450 stakeholders and represented >1000 years of collective experience. The maps provided a consistent national source of information on priority conservation areas for rivers and wetlands and have been applied in 25 of the 37 use contexts since their launch just over 3 years ago. When framed as a knowledge co‐production process supported by boundary work, regional conservation plans can be developed into valuable boundary objects that offer a tangible tool for multi‐agency cooperation around conservation. Our work provides practical guidance for promoting uptake of conservation science and contributes to an evidence base on how conservation efforts can be improved.     

Conservation Planning in Forest Landscapes of Fennoscandia and an Approach to the Challenge of Countdown 2010

Abstract:  Effective management of biodiversity in production landscapes requires a conservation approach that acknowledges the complexity of ecological and cultural systems in time and space. Fennoscandia has experienced major loss of forest biodiversity caused by intensive forestry. Therefore, the Countdown 2010 initiative to halt the loss of biodiversity in Europe is highly relevant to forest management in this part of the continent. As a contribution to meeting the challenge posed by Countdown 2010, we developed a spatially explicit conservation-planning exercise that used regional knowledge on forest biodiversity to provide support for managers attempting to halt further loss of biological diversity in the region. We used current data on the distribution of 169 species (including 68 red-listed species) representing different forest habitats and ecologies along with forest data within the frame of modern conservation software to devise a map of priority areas for conservation. The top 10% of priority areas contained over 75% of red-listed species locations and 41% of existing protected forest areas, but only 58% of these top priorities overlapped with core areas identified previously in a regional strategy that used more qualitative methods. We argue for aggregating present and future habitat value of single management units to landscape and regional scales to identify potential bottlenecks in habitat availability linked to landscape dynamics. To address the challenge of Countdown 2010, a general framework for forest conservation planning in Fennoscandia needs to cover different conservation issues, tools, and data needs.     

Practical actions for applied systematic conservation planning

Systematic conservation planning is intended to inform spatially explicit decision making. Doing so requires that it be integrated into complex regulatory and governance processes, and there are limited instances where this has been achieved effectively. South Africa is a global leader in the application of conservation plans, the outputs of which are widely used for spatial planning and decision making in many spheres of government. We aimed to determine how conservation planning in the country progressed from theory to implementation, and to identify practical actions that enabled this transition, by assessing temporal trends in the characteristics of conservation plans (1990–2017, n = 94). Since 2010 conservation planning has entered an operational period characterized by government leadership of plans, administrative rather than ecological planning domains, decreasing size of planning units, increasing emphasis on end-user products, and scheduled revision of plans. Key actions that enabled this progression include transitioning leadership of plans from scientists to practitioners, building capacity within implementing agencies, creating opportunities to integrate plans in legislative processes, establishing a strong community of practice, adopting implementation-focused methods, and balancing standardization with innovation. Learning from this model will allow other countries, particularly those with a similar megadiverse, developing context, to operationalize conservation planning into spatial planning and decision making.     

Conservation Biology in Asia: the Major Policy Challenges

Abstract:  With about half the world's human population and booming economies, Asia faces numerous challenges to its biodiversity. The Asia Section of the Society for Conservation Biology has identified some key policy issues in which significant progress can be made. These include developing new sources of funding for forest conservation; identifying potential impacts of energy alternatives on the conservation of biodiversity; curbing the trade in endangered species of plants and animals; a special focus on the conservation of mountain biodiversity; enhancing relevant research; ensuring that conservation biology contributes to major international conventions and funding mechanisms; using conservation biology to build a better understanding of zoonotic diseases; more effectively addressing human–animal conflicts; enhancing community-based conservation; and using conservation biology to help address the pervasive water-deficit problems in much of Asia. These challenges can be met through improved regional cooperation among the relevant stakeholders .     

Patterns of Diversity of Neotropical Squamate Reptile Species with Emphasis on the Brazilian Amazon and the Conservation Potential of Indigenous Reserves

We present new distibutional data for squamate reptiles (amphisbaenians, lizards, and snakes) from several Neotropical sites and estimate species (alpha) diversity at each site. Species compositions at all localities were used to estimate similarity in species richness within and between each of the major regions sampled: Central American lowland forests, Amazonia, and South American dryland forests. We used these estimates to derive maps summarizing overall regional patterns (beta diversity) of squamate richness. Both groups clearly reveal distinct faunal divisions among the three regions. Within Amazonia, lizards and snakes show a clear division in species composition between a "western edge" cluster of sites adjacent to eastern Andean slopes and all other localities in the central and eastern regions. Within this east-central block of sites, a further division is evident between localities north and south of the main Amazon River channel. These general regions of squamate similarity were qualitatively assessed in Brazil's portion of Amazonia within the context of the distribution of all state, federal, and Indian lands that are in principle afforded some level of protection and therefore offer potential for biodiversity conservation. We assess the potential for biodiversity conservation relative to the size of reserves needed to sustain populations of 500 individuals of the three largest species of snakes and to the distribution of potential conservation areas relative to the regional patterns of diversity identified by the statistical analysis. We conclude that the sizes and distributions of reserves are adequate to sustain viable populations of squamates if these areas can be counted on to play a major role in biodiversity conservation.     

Influence of environment, disturbance, and ownership on forest vegetation of coastal Oregon.

Information about how vegetation composition and structure vary quantitatively and spatially with physical environment, disturbance history, and land ownership is fundamental to regional conservation planning. However, current knowledge about patterns of vegetation variability across large regions that is spatially explicit (i.e., mapped) tends to be general and qualitative. We used spatial predictions from gradient models to examine the influence of environment, disturbance, and ownership on patterns of forest vegetation biodiversity across a large forested region, the 3-million-ha Oregon Coast Range (USA). Gradients in tree species composition were strongly associated with environment, especially climate, and insensitive to disturbance, probably because many dominant tree species are long-lived and persist throughout forest succession. In contrast, forest structure was strongly correlated with disturbance and only weakly with environmental gradients. Although forest structure differed among ownerships, differences were blurred by the presence of legacy trees that originated prior to current forest management regimes. Our multi-ownership perspective revealed biodiversity concerns and benefits not readily visible in single-ownership analyses, and all ownerships contributed to regional biodiversity values. Federal lands provided most of the late-successional and old-growth forest. State lands contained a range of forest ages and structures, including diverse young forest, abundant legacy dead wood, and much of the high-elevation true fir forest. Nonindustrial private lands provided diverse young forest and the greatest abundance of hardwood trees, including almost all of the foothill oak woodlands. Forest industry lands encompassed much early-successional forest, most of the mixed hardwood-conifer forest, and large amounts of legacy down wood. The detailed tree- and species-level data in the maps revealed regional trends that would be masked in traditional coarse-filter assessment. Although abundant, most early-successional forests originated after timber harvest and lacked legacy live and dead trees important as habitat and for other ecological functions. Many large-conifer forests that might be classified as old growth using a generalized forest cover map lacked structural features of old growth such as multilayered canopies or dead wood. Our findings suggest that regional conservation planning include all ownerships and land allocations, as well as fine-scale elements of vegetation composition and structure.     

Species Richness, Endemism, and the Choice of Areas for Conservation

Although large reserve networks will be integral components in successful biodiversity conservation, implementation of such systems is hindered by the confusion over the relative importance of endemism and species richness. There is evidence (  Prendergast et al. 1993) that regions with high richness for a taxon tend to be different from those with high endemism. I tested this finding using distribution and richness data for 368 species from Mammalia, Lasioglossum, Plusiinae, and Papilionidae. The study area, subdivided into 336 quadrats, was the continuous area of North America north of Mexico. I also tested the hypothesis that the study taxa exhibit similar diversity patterns in North America. I found that endemism and richness patterns within taxa were generally similar. Therefore, the controversy over the relative importance of endemism and species richness may not be necessary if an individual taxon were the target of conservation efforts. I also found, however, that richness and endemism patterns were not generally similar between taxa. Therefore, centering nature reserves around areas that are important for mammal diversity (the umbrella species concept) may lead to large gaps in the overall protection of biodiversity because the diversity and endemism of other taxa tend to be concentrated elsewhere. I investigated this further by selecting four regions in North America that might form the basis of a hypothetical reserve system for Carnivora. I analyzed the distribution of the invertebrate taxa relative to these regions and found that this preliminary carnivore reserve system did not provide significantly different protection for these invertebrates than randomly selected quadrats. I conclude that the use of Carnivora as an umbrella taxon is an unreliable method for invertebrate conservation.     

Red-list status and extinction risk of the world's whales,dolphins, and porpoises

To understand the scope and scale of the loss of biodiversity, tools are required that can be applied in a standardized manner to all species globally, spanning realms from land to the open ocean. We used data from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List to provide a synthesis of the conservation status and extinction risk of cetaceans. One in 4 cetacean species (26% of 92 species) was threatened with extinction (i.e., critically endangered, endangered, or vulnerable) and 11% were near threatened. Ten percent of cetacean species were data deficient, and we predicted that 2–3 of these species may also be threatened. The proportion of threatened cetaceans has increased: 15% in 1991, 19% in 2008, and 26% in 2021. The assessed conservation status of 20% of species has worsened from 2008 to 2021, and only 3 moved into categories of lesser threat. Cetacean species with small geographic ranges were more likely to be listed as threatened than those with large ranges, and those that occur in freshwater (100% of species) and coastal (60% of species) habitats were under the greatest threat. Analysis of odontocete species distributions revealed a global hotspot of threatened small cetaceans in Southeast Asia, in an area encompassing the Coral Triangle and extending through nearshore waters of the Bay of Bengal, northern Australia, and Papua New Guinea and into the coastal waters of China. Improved management of fisheries to limit overfishing and reduce bycatch is urgently needed to avoid extinctions or further declines, especially in coastal areas of Asia, Africa, and South America.     

Identifying potential indicators of conservation value using natural heritage occurrence data.

Conservation planning based on the occurrence of rare species has been criticized as being too limited in scope to conserve biodiversity as a whole. Conversely, planning based on indicator taxa may lack sufficient focus to conserve those species in greatest need of conservation. An alternative approach is to identify a variety of species at risk that are associated with areas of conservation value, which is defined based on species-independent characteristics. We identified potential indicators of conservation value using occurrence data on species at risk and independent information on conservation value that incorporated indices of ecosystem integrity. We propose a taxonomically diverse group of indicator species that are strongly associated with areas of exceptional ecosystem integrity, to serve as a focus for further research and in planning for biodiversity conservation. We identify potential indicator species by defining a null model in which species at risk are equally associated with areas of high ecosystem integrity, then by conducting randomization tests to identify noncompliant species in the state of Michigan, USA. Areas of high ecosystem integrity are selected using criteria to flag (1) secure biotic communities with structural integrity and few exotic species, (2) natural areas subjected to expert review, (3) contiguous relict areas of forest interior, (4) contiguous areas of unmodified wetland, and (5) all these areas combined. We determine the spatial occurrence of species at risk using data from Michigan's statewide Natural Heritage database. The potential indicators include plants, insects, and birds. Their species identity and distribution of occurrences varies with the five scenarios, and together the species broadly cover the entire state. These species at risk, many of which occur throughout the Great Lakes region, may be used to identify additional areas potentially high in conservation value and to monitor their conservation. The ecological criteria and numerical methods we employ may be broadly applicable as Heritage Program databases in North America and parts of Latin America grow to become representative of species distributions.     

Prioritizing sites for conservation based on similarity to historical baselines and feasibility of protection

The concept of shifting baselines in conservation science implies advocacy for the use of historical knowledge to inform these baselines but does not address the feasibility of restoring sites to those baselines. In many regions, conservation feasibility varies among sites due to differences in resource availability, statutory power, and land‐owner participation. We used zooarchaeological records to identify a historical baseline of the freshwater mussel community's composition before Euro‐American influence at a river‐reach scale (i.e., a kilometer stretch of river that is abiotically similar) in the Leon River of central Texas (U.S.A.). We evaluated how the community reference position and the feasibility of conservation might enable identification of sites where conservation actions would preserve historically representative communities and be likely to succeed. We devised a conceptual model that incorporated community information and landscape factors to link the best conservation areas to potential cost and conservation benefits. Using fuzzy ordination, we identified modern mussel beds that were most like the historical baseline. We then quantified housing density and land use near each river reach identified to estimate feasibility of habitat restoration. Using our conceptual framework, we identified reaches of high conservation value (i.e., contain the best mussel beds) and where restoration actions would be most likely to succeed. Reaches above Lake Belton were most similar in species composition and relative abundance to zooarchaeological sites. A subset of these mussel beds occurred in locations where conservation actions appeared most feasible. Our results show how to use zooarchaeological data (biodiversity data often readily available) and estimates of conservation feasibility to inform conservation priorities at a local spatial scale.     

Conservation Genetics of North American Freshwater Mussels Amblema and Megalonaias

Freshwater bivalves are among the most endangered groups of organisms in North America. Efforts to protect the declining mussel fauna are confounded by ambiguities associated with recognition of distinct evolutionary entities or species. This, in part, is due to the paucity of reliable morphological characters for differentiating taxa. We have employed allozymes and DNA sequence data to search for diagnosably distinct evolutionary entities within two problematic genera of unionid mussels, Amblema and Megalonaias. Within the genus Amblema three species are recognized based on our DNA sequence data for the mitochondrial 16S rRNA and allozyme data (Amblema neislerii, A. plicata, and A. elliotti). Only one taxonomically distinct entity is recognized within the genus Megalonaias—M. nervosa. Megalonaias boykiniana of the Apalachicolan Region is not diagnosable and does not warrant specific taxonomic status. Interestingly, Megalonaias from west of the Mississippi River, including the Mississippi, exhibited an allozyme and mtDNA haplotype frequency shift suggestive of an east-west dichotomy. The results of this study eliminate one subspecies of Amblema and increase the range of A. plicata. This should not affect the conservation status of "currently stable" assigned to A. plicata by Williams et al. (1993). The conservation status of A. elliotti needs to be reexamined because its distribution appears to be limited to the Coosa River System in Alabama and Georgia.     

Biodiversity Conservation in Local Planning

Abstract:  Local land-use policy is increasingly being recognized as fundamental to biodiversity conservation in the United States. Many planners and conservation scientists have called for broader use of planning and regulatory tools to support the conservation of biodiversity at local scales. Yet little is known about the pervasiveness of these practices. We conducted an on-line survey of county, municipal, and tribal planning directors (n = 116 ) in 3 geographic regions of the United States: metropolitan Seattle, Washington; metropolitan Des Moines, Iowa; and the Research Triangle, North Carolina. Our objectives were to gauge the extent to which local planning departments address biodiversity conservation and to identify factors that facilitate or hinder conservation actions in local planning. We found that biodiversity conservation was seldom a major consideration in these departments. Staff time was mainly devoted to development mandates and little time was spent on biodiversity conservation. Regulations requiring conservation actions that might benefit biodiversity were uncommon, with the exception of rules governing water quality in all 3 regions and the protection of threatened and endangered species in the Seattle region. Planning tools that could enhance habitat conservation were used infrequently. Collaboration across jurisdictions was widespread, but rarely focused on conservation. Departments with a conservation specialist on staff tended to be associated with higher levels of conservation actions. Jurisdictions in the Seattle region also reported higher levels of conservation action, largely driven by state and federal mandates. Increased funding was most frequently cited as a factor that would facilitate greater consideration of biodiversity in local planning. There are numerous opportunities for conservation biologists to play a role in improving conservation planning at local scales.     

The Grain of Spatially Referenced Economic Cost and Biodiversity Benefit Data and the Effectiveness of a Cost Targeting Strategy

Facing tight resource constraints, conservation organizations must allocate funds available for habitat protection as effectively as possible. Often, they combine spatially referenced economic and biodiversity data to prioritize land for protection. We tested how sensitive these prioritizations could be to differences in the spatial grain of these data by demonstrating how the conclusion of a classic debate in conservation planning between cost and benefit targeting was altered based on the available information. As a case study, we determined parcel‐level acquisition costs and biodiversity benefits of land transactions recently undertaken by a nonprofit conservation organization that seeks to protect forests in the eastern United States. Then, we used hypothetical conservation plans to simulate the types of ex ante priorities that an organization could use to prioritize areas for protection. We found the apparent effectiveness of cost and benefit targeting depended on the spatial grain of the data used when prioritizing parcels based on local species richness. However, when accounting for complementarity, benefit targeting consistently was more efficient than a cost targeting strategy regardless of the spatial grain of the data involved. More pertinently for other studies, we found that combining data collected over different spatial grains inflated the apparent effectiveness of a cost targeting strategy and led to overestimation of the efficiency gain offered by adopting a more integrative return‐on‐investment approach.     

Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony and decadal changes in these patterns for grassland birds in the United States and Canada, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and over 50 years of abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to generate population indices within a 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid. We computed and mapped mean local spatial synchrony for each cell (mean detrended correlation of the index among neighboring cells), along with associated uncertainty, for 19 species in 2, 26-year periods, 1968–1993 and 1994–2019. Grassland birds were predicted to increase in spatial synchrony where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the 2 increased. We found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, based on the geography of these changes, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions and a region of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern United States. Our approach has the potential to inform continental-scale conservation planning by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. Our work adds to a growing literature suggesting that global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation.     

Predicting Risk of Habitat Conversion in Native Temperate Grasslands

Abstract: Native grasslands that support diverse populations of birds are being converted to cropland at an increasing rate in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Although limited funding is currently available to mitigate losses, accurate predictions of probability of conversion would increase the efficiency of conservation measures. We studied conversion of native grassland to cropland in the Missouri Coteau region of North and South Dakota (U.S.A.) during 1989–2003. We estimated the probability of conversion of native grassland to cropland with satellite imagery and logistic regression models that predicted risk of conversion and by comparing the overlap between areas of high biological value and areas most vulnerable to conversion. Annualized probability of conversion was 0.004, and 36,540 ha of native grassland were converted to cropland during the period of our study. Our predictive models fit the data and correctly predicted 70% of observed conversions of grassland. Probability of conversion varied spatially and was correlated with landscape features like amount of surrounding grassland, slope, and soil productivity. Tracts of high biological value were not always at high risk of conversion. We concluded the most biologically valuable areas that are most vulnerable to conversion should be prioritized for conservation. This approach can be applied broadly to other systems and offers great utility for implementing conservation in areas with spatially variable biological value and probability of conversion.