Prioritizing sites for conservation based on similarity to historical baselines and feasibility of protection

The concept of shifting baselines in conservation science implies advocacy for the use of historical knowledge to inform these baselines but does not address the feasibility of restoring sites to those baselines. In many regions, conservation feasibility varies among sites due to differences in resource availability, statutory power, and land‐owner participation. We used zooarchaeological records to identify a historical baseline of the freshwater mussel community's composition before Euro‐American influence at a river‐reach scale (i.e., a kilometer stretch of river that is abiotically similar) in the Leon River of central Texas (U.S.A.). We evaluated how the community reference position and the feasibility of conservation might enable identification of sites where conservation actions would preserve historically representative communities and be likely to succeed. We devised a conceptual model that incorporated community information and landscape factors to link the best conservation areas to potential cost and conservation benefits. Using fuzzy ordination, we identified modern mussel beds that were most like the historical baseline. We then quantified housing density and land use near each river reach identified to estimate feasibility of habitat restoration. Using our conceptual framework, we identified reaches of high conservation value (i.e., contain the best mussel beds) and where restoration actions would be most likely to succeed. Reaches above Lake Belton were most similar in species composition and relative abundance to zooarchaeological sites. A subset of these mussel beds occurred in locations where conservation actions appeared most feasible. Our results show how to use zooarchaeological data (biodiversity data often readily available) and estimates of conservation feasibility to inform conservation priorities at a local spatial scale.     

Neighborhood Level Spatial Analysis of the Relationship Between Alcohol Outlet Density and Criminal Violence

Misuse of alcohol is a significant public health problem, potentially resulting in unintentional injuries, motor vehicle crashes, drownings, and, perhaps of greatest concern, serious acts of violence, including assaults, rapes, suicides, and homicides. Although previous research establishes a link between alcohol consumption increased levels of violence, studies relating the density of alcohol outlets (e.g., restaurants, bars, liquor stores) and the likelihood of violent crime have been less common. In this paper we test for such a relationship at the small area level, using data from 79 neighborhoods in the city of Minneapolis, Minnesota. We adopt a fully Bayesian point of view using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational methods as available in the popular and freely available WinBUGS language. Our models control for important covariates (e.g., neighborhood racial heterogeneity, age heterogeneity) and also account for spatial association in unexplained variability using conditionally autoregressive (CAR) random effects. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between alcohol outlet density and violent crime, while also permitting easy mapping of neighborhood-level predicted and residual values, the former useful for intervention in the most at-risk neighborhoods and the latter potentially useful in identifying covariates still missing from the fixed effects portion of the model.     

Characterization of fine primary biogenic organic aerosol in an urban area in the northeastern United States

Scanning electron microscopy coupled to energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (SEM/EDX) was used to quantify individual bioparticles in PM_2.5 samples collected during the Pittsburgh Air Quality Study. Microscopy-based estimates of primary biogenic organic aerosol (PBOA) mass were compared to carbohydrate mass associated with PM_2.5. Carbohydrates show substantial seasonal variations, with higher concentrations in the spring and the fall. During the summer, carbohydrates were about 30% of the estimated PBOA concentrations, but in the winter carbohydrate concentrations often greatly exceeded the PBOA mass estimate. Spores and insect detritus were the most abundant PBOA types in the summer samples, while winter samples were comprised predominantly of a mixture of microorganisms, insect and vegetative detritus. During the summer PBOA contributed on average 6.9 ± 5.4% by mass of the PM_2.5 versus 3.3 ± 1.4% of the PM_2.5 mass during the winter.     

Recommended Design for More Accurate Duplication of Natural Conditions in Salt Marsh Creation

Construction of 653 ha of salt marsh habitat from dredged material near the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge, Texas, has been proposed, with the goal of increasing the area of habitat available to endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana). We assessed prototype created wetlands, and their similarity to natural reference sites, in terms of topography, vegetation, and hydrology. The created sites were steeply sloped relative to natural sites and were dominated by monotypic stands of Spartina alterniflora. Natural sites were dominated by vegetation more tolerant of desiccation and hypersalinity and by unvegetated salt pans. Differences in vegetation communities and distributions of habitat types resulted from efforts to enhance habitat diversity in created marsh cells through manipulation of marsh topography. However, the scale at which this diversity occurred in natural marsh of the study area was not considered. When constructing wetlands in cellular configurations, we recommend creation of large complexes of adjoining, hydrologically linked, cells wherein the desired habitat diversity is created at the scale of the entire complex, rather than within a single cell. Suggested design modifications would increase the similarity of created marshes to natural reference sites, potentially improving habitat function.     

Sobriety checkpoint and open container laws in the United States: Associations with reported drinking-driving

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess how 2 types of drinking-driving laws—permitting sobriety checkpoints and prohibiting open containers of alcohol in motor vehicles—are associated with drinking-driving and how enforcement efforts may affect these associations.

Methods: We obtained 2010 data on state-level drinking-driving laws and individual-level self-reported drinking-driving from archival sources (Alcohol Policy Information System, NHTSA, and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System). We measured enforcement of the laws via a 2009 survey of state patrol agencies. We computed multilevel regression models (separate models for each type of law) that first examined how having the state law predicted drinking-driving, controlling for various state- and individual-level covariates; we then added the corresponding enforcement measure as another potential predictor.

Results: We found that states with a sobriety checkpoint law, compared with those without a law, had 18.2% lower drinking-driving; states that conducted sobriety checks at least monthly (vs. not conducting checks) had 40.6% lower drinking-driving (the state law variable was not significant when enforcement was added). We found no significant association between having an open container law and drinking-driving, but states that conducted open container enforcement, regardless of having a law, had 17.6% less drinking-driving.

Conclusion: Our results suggest that having a sobriety checkpoint law and conducting checkpoints as well as enforcement of open containers laws may be effective strategies for addressing drinking-driving.     

Individual particle characteristics of North African dust under different long-range transport scenarios

After urban sources, mineral dust in Madrid is the second biggest contributor to PM₁₀, making up 40% on average, of total emissions. Approximately, 50% of the days on which the daily limit of 50 μg m^?3 marked by the European Directive, are ascribable to Saharan outbreaks. The present study has focused on individual particle characterization of North African dust over Madrid by SEM/EDX, since no previous works on this type of characterization have been found in the region. More than 30,000 particles from 6 different samples have been measured to characterize 4 African episodes with very different meteorological scenarios, transport processes and source origins. Different samples from the same episode have also been characterized to evaluate homogeneity of dust characteristics over time. Silicates, mainly composed of clay minerals, are the main component, with abundances ranging from 65 to 85% by particle volume. Chemical cluster distribution of silicates has been linked to the major topsoil mineralogical composition in the origin of the episodes. Aspect Ratio (AR) has been used to compare particle morphology between episodes. AR values from samples taken under the same scenarios are statistically equal. For all the samples and size ranges AR values are found to be in the same order: AR_sulphates > AR_silicates > AR_carbonates. Particles not only maintained morphology during the episode, but also chemical composition, since clusters turned out to be very similar in samples taken on the same day and different days. Similarities and differences in particle chemical composition and morphology between the different transport patterns are discussed in detail throughout the paper.     

Landscape history, fragmentation, and patch occupancy: models for a forest bird with limited dispersal.

We developed and tested patch occupancy models for an endemic understory bird with limited dispersal ability, the Chucao Tapaculo (Scelorchilus rubecula), in two South American temperate rain forest landscapes that differed in levels and duration of forest loss. We assessed cover changes since 1961 in each landscape and surveyed patches for Chucao Tapaculo occupancy. We then developed incidence-based predictive models independently for each landscape and tested each model reciprocally in the alternative study area. We thereby assessed the domain of model applicability and identified those predictor variables with general effects and those that varied between the two landscapes. The two models were consistent regarding variable selection, and predictive accuracy of each model was high in the landscape where training data were collected. However, the models differed substantially in the magnitudes of effects related to patch size, with larger unoccupied patches observed in the landscape with the more advanced stage of fragmentation. Due to this discrepancy, each model performed poorly when applied to the alternative landscape, potentially reflecting the contrasting stages of habitat loss. Although it was impossible to dissociate effects of level and duration of forest loss, we viewed the landscapes as representing two extremes along a continuum of fragmentation, providing insights into potential trajectories for portions of the biome where deforestation is occurring. Further, our data suggest that static equilibrium models developed from distribution patterns in recently fragmented landscapes may overestimate persistence when used as a forecasting tool, or when extrapolated to alternative landscapes where fragmentation is more advanced. Thus, we suggest that landscapes used as standards for model building should be selected with caution. We recommend that distribution patterns be obtained from landscapes where fragmentation is advanced, preferably with histories of fragmentation long enough that time-delayed extinctions already would have occurred.