危险品道路运输风险分级指数法研究

危险品道路运输过程风险影响因素多,随机性和不确定性大,定量风险评价比较复杂,至今没有统一的风险评估模型.为了有效预防危险品运输事故和进行快速风险评估,基于运输危险品本身特性和相关的风险影响因素探讨了运输危险品现实风险分级指数法.该方法由危险品风险分级指数、路线影响因素和安全措施补偿因子3部分构成.危险品风险分级指数由危险品加权平均风险等级和运输危险品量、泄漏点与居民区距离以及危险品扩散因子等级确定.危险品加权平均风险等级涉及其健康危害性、可燃性、化学反应活性以及特殊危险性(氧化性和与水反应性)等级的确定.路线影响因素包含运输道路特征、气象条件、交通状况和影响人员分布4类.安全措施补偿因子为车辆、设备、容器、包装因子,人员素质因子和安全管理因子3类.该方法可对运输危险品的潜在风险进行快速分级,有利于采取有效的安全预防和控制措施,降低运输事故概率和沿线影响人员风险.     

危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系探讨

危险品道路运输是一个复杂的系统,风险管理涉及危险品运输规划和事故应急响应。本文介绍了现有的危险品运输风险管理模式和基本管理原则,基于运输风险评估、运输路径优化、应急单位优化选址和选线、人员疏散管理以及事件决策管理等构建了危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系,阐述了系统基本要素之间的相互关系。危险品道路运输过程风险管理是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于减少危险品运输事故概率和降低运输沿线影响人员风险,为政府监管部门和危险品生产经营单位的运输安全管理、优化选线以及应急救援等工作提供技术依据,合理规划危险品运输系统。     

危险品道路安全运输路径优化方法探讨

危险品道路运输量逐年增加,对人类安全健康的危害的风险正在扩大和加深,一旦发生事故,其后果极为严重。笔者从人-机-环境角度分析了危险品道路运输系统的组成要素,基于对运输网、运输风险源、后果影响区域3个层次辨识,分析运输过程中的风险影响因素,提出危险品道路运输路径优化选择的一般方法;并给出危险品道路运输线风险源的可接受个人风险和社会风险标准;探讨了危险品运输约束最优化选线模型。路径优化选择可减少运输沿线影响人员风险和事故概率,优化影响人员风险与运输效率冲突问题,为政府监管部门与危险品运输企业提供了安全管理的基本决策依据。     

危险品道路运输选线问题分析

从运输网、运输危险源、影响区域3方面提出了危险品道路运输风险分析的框架.将道路固有特征、气象条件、交通状况和人口密度分布等风险减缓或扩大因素划分为8类,重点讨论了主要路线的自变量和因变量因素.采用双层选线管理模式,深入分析了最小化运输事故概率和暴露人口风险模型.应用权数调整节点标号算法和边线标号算法解决危险品道路运输选线问题.对影响区暴露人口的选取做了深入探讨,考虑了邻接交迭路段暴露人数的误差,对准确计算危险品运输风险有重要价值.     

ALOHA在危险品公路运输应急决策支持系统中的应用

危险品道路运输量逐年增加,运输过程中一旦发生泄漏就会给人类安全健康、自然环境和社会带来巨大的危害.提出了危险品运输应急支持系统的设计构想,并从决策支持系统(DSS)中数据库和模型库两方面进行了分析,同时利用ALOHA和ArcGIS初步实现了系统的功能,为应急辅助决策提供一定的指导.     

Route evaluation for hazmat transportation based on total risk - A case of Indian State Highways

Risk-based hazmat transportation route evaluation involves risk calculations taking into consideration the probability of collision related accident occurrence and detailed consequence analysis of various event scenarios. Probabilistic hazmat transportation risk assessment mainly depends on three important factors i.e. accident rate, Average Daily Traffic and population density besides route length which has a definite bearing on it. An effort has been made to estimate the route segment specific (location-specific) accident rate instead of aggregate National or State average values in order to bring specificity into the issue of decision making to avoid routes with higher accident rates. Instead of using default accident rate for different highway types developed with the US data, which are not well-comparable when used in Indian situations; the author used site-specific truck accident data. Subsequently, Loss of Containment (LOC) probabilities and spillage probabilities for different route segments have been computed and compared. Finally, route segment-wise total risk is estimated which is a convenient measure of the average number of persons likely to be exposed from all the possible consequence event scenarios resulting from releases of different hazmats being transported along the studied routes. The present study highlights the route evaluation carried out based on total risk computation, without going through detailed event based consequence analysis on two State Highway routes and one major urban road passing through important industrial corridors of Surat District in western India, to enable routing decisions by local authorities and also for planning emergency mitigation purposes.     

级联失效特性下的危险品运输路径选择研究

基于复杂网络的级联失效特性,构建危险品运输网络的级联失效模型,提出用路段重要度来度量某条路段上发生危险品事故后引起网络其他路段失效的规模。以路径风险最小化和路径总重要度最小化为目标,建立危险品运输路径的多目标决策模型,并利用标号法进行求解。算例结果表明,危险品运输网络确实存在级联失效现象。选择危险品运输路径时,应尽量避开重要度高的路段,以降低危险品事故对普通道路网络的不良交通影响。     

基于主成分分析法的危险货物运输企业安全评价

为更准确地评估危险货物运输企业安全等级以降低其运输风险,提出基于主成分分析法(PCA)的危险货物运输企业BP神经网络安全评价模型;在从人-机-物-环境-管理角度构建危险货物运输企业安全评价指标的基础上,分别利用该模型和其他3种模型对3家实例企业进行仿真评价和对比分析。结果表明,该模型的评价结果与期望值间的相对误差约为0.5%～1.2%,计算精度优于其他模型,且具有计算量小等特点。     

Choosing vehicle capacity to minimize risk for transporting flammable materials

Highway transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) has been an active area of research with significant efforts in the risk assessment and route selection domains. Almost all these works assume fixed (constant) truck capacity, and hence capacity-based vehicle selection has not been studied. In this paper, we make a first attempt to investigate the impact of different truck capacities on transport risk from moving flammables, such as gasoline or explosives, on a given route. We make use of three scenarios, under risk-neutral and risk-averse assumptions, to develop conditions for preferring a specific vehicle size. A problem instance based in the US is solved to gain managerial insights.     

Statistical modeling of cargo tank truck crashes: Rollover and release of hazardous materials

Introduction: Cargo Tank Trucks (CTTs) are a primary surface transportation carrier of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States and CTT rollover crashes are the leading cause of injuries and fatalities from hazmat transportation incidents. CTTs are susceptible to rollover crashes because of their size, distribution of weight, a higher center of gravity, and the surging and sloshing of liquid cargo during transportation. This study identified and quantified the effects of various factors on the probability of rollover and release of hazmat in traffic crashes where a CTT was involved. Method: Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)-based logistic regression models were estimated with rollover and hazmat release as the binary response variables, and crash, truck, roadway, environment, and driver characteristics as the explanatory variables. 2010–2016 police-reported CTT-involved crash data from Nebraska and Kansas was utilized. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves confirmed appropriateness of the modeling approach for inference and prediction on the crash dataset. Results: CTTs are more likely to rollover in crashes while turning and changing lanes relative to going straight; side impacts (side collisions) and severe crosswinds increased the likelihood of rollovers; tractor and semi-trailer body style decreased the probability of rollover, while truck tractors are more prone to rollovers; collisions with fixed objects and higher posted speeds increased the rollover probability; rollovers and intersection crash locations increased the likelihood of hazmat release. Conclusions: The findings can assist stakeholders (policy-makers, private shippers, and CTT drivers) in restricting CTTs’ operations for safety; scheduling, routing, and fleet planning; and low-level decision-making (e.g., emergency stopping or local routing). Practical Applications: This study identified and quantified the effects of different factors on the conditional probability of rollover and release of hazmat in CTT-involved crashes. The findings may assist stakeholders in decision-making towards safe operations of CTTs for transportation of hazmat.     

Risk analysis system for the transport of hazardous materials

IntroductionIn this paper, a literature study on risk analysis systems for the transport of hazardous materials was conducted.ResultsThe insights that resulted from this literature review have led to the development of a refined approach to map the risk of hazmat transport in Flanders based on historical accident data. The proposed framework allows setting up an overall risk map for hazmat transport by different transport modes. Additionally, a methodology to calculate a local accident risk, which takes local infrastructure parameters and accident data into account, is being introduced. In the presented framework one of the general principles is that the risk of a catastrophic hazmat incident can be divided into two parts, which can both be validated on the basis of accident data: (a) the calculation of the general probability of the occurrence of an accident based on international accident data of transport of hazardous materials – this is the basis for the global risk map, and (b) the calculation of the local probability of the occurrence of an accident based on accident data and infrastructure parameters of the complete available freight transport in Flanders – this is the basis for the local risk map. The ratio between these two results in a locality parameter, which represents the local specific circumstances that can lead to an accident.ConclusionsThis evaluation framework makes it possible to estimate the risks of hazmat transport along a specific route for transport by road, rail, inland navigation and even pipelines.     

Qualitative Assessment for Inherently Safer Design (QAISD) at preliminary design stage

Conventional hazard evaluation techniques such as what-if checklist and hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies are often used to recognise potential hazards and recommend possible solutions. They are used to reduce any potential incidents in the process plant to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) level. Nevertheless, the suggested risk reduction alternatives merely focus on added passive and active safety systems rather than preventing or minimising the inherent hazards at source through application of inherently safer design (ISD) concept. One of the attributed reasons could be the shortage of techniques or tools to support implementation of the concept. Thus, this paper proposes a qualitative methodology that integrates ISD concept with hazard review technique to identify inherent hazards and generate ISD options at early stage of design as proactive measures to produce inherently safer plant. A modified theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ) hazard review method is used in this work to identify inherent hazards, whereby an extended inherent safety heuristics tool is developed based on established ISD principles to create potential ISD options. The developed method namely Qualitative Assessment for Inherently Safer Design (QAISD) could be applied during preliminary design stage and the information required to apply the method would be based on common process and safety database of the studied process. However, user experiences and understanding of inherent safety concept are crucial for effective utilisation of the QAISD. This qualitative methodology is applied to a typical batch reactor of toluene nitration as a case study. The results show several ISD strategies that could be considered at early stage of design in order to prevent and minimise the potential of thermal runaway in the nitration process.     

A fuzzy risk assessment approach for occupational hazards in the construction industry

The techniques in the construction industry have been improved due to the rapid development of science and technology. However, the constructional hazards are not decreased as expected. To reduce or prevent occupational hazards in the construction industry, a fuzzy risk assessment method was proposed to provide a prevention and improvement technique against occupational hazards. This method used two-stage quality function deployment (QFD) tables to represent the relationships among construction items, hazard types and hazard causes. A fuzzy analytic network process (ANP) method was developed to identify important hazard types and hazard causes. Failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) was performed to assess the risk value of hazard causes based on the fuzzy inference approach. The proposed method was applied to a telecom engineering company in southern Taiwan. The performance evaluation result indicated that this method can provide satisfactory risk assessment values of hazard causes and relevant improvement strategies.     

危险品道路运输泄漏引发水污染事故的定量风险评估方法研究

介绍了由道路交通事故引发的地表水污染事故风险定量分析方法,重点分析了突发水污染事故源发生概率和危害后果表征方法.以评价水域内道路危险品运输泄漏事故发生概率为水污染事故源发生概率.污染事故后果危害水平的表征:1)敏感区(点)最高浓度; 2)敏感区(点)超标总历时;3)水质超标的范围(如超标河流长度).评估方法为陆源造成的突发水污染事故的预防管理与应急计划的制订实施提供了科学依据.     

Delphi法职业危害风险评估模型及案例研究

为科学合理地进行建设项目职业病危害风险分类,基于系统工程及风险评估的基本原理,采用Delphi法分析和确定了影响职业病危害风险程度的因素,通过构建风险评估指标体系,建立了职业病危害影响因子赋值法(OHFA)定量化风险评估模型。根据对作业场所的危害源、本质及附加防护设施水平、人员接触机会、职业病防治管理等因子的综合分析,预测分析了研究对象的职业病危害的风险程度,为职业病危害风险辨识、风险评估、防治管理及防护设施设计等提供参考。并以某石化行业硫磺回收项目为实例进行应用与验证,得出了该项目的总体职业病危害风险度值为12,风险等级为Ⅰ级,各职业病危害因素的风险度由高到底排序为硫化氢、一氧化碳、二氧化硫、硫磺、高温,其风险分类的关键决定因素为硫化氢。实践表明该方法与专家评估结果及工程实际吻合较好,应用于职业病危害风险评估中可给出定量化的风险分类结果。     

A methodology for evaluation and monitoring of recurring hazards in underground coal mining

This study provides a methodology for evaluation and monitoring of recurring hazards in underground coal mining. An important measure in this regard may be the ‘time between occurrences’ (TBO) of hazards that can be modeled in the similar fashion of ‘time between failures’ (TBF) data modeling which is practiced in reliability study. Typically, time between accidents is modeled in safety study. This study is therefore new in two counts: (i) statistically modeling hazard occurrences based on inspection reports and (ii) monitoring of safety status based on control charting of hazard occurrences. The methodology includes Weibull-distribution based hazard rate functions, Poisson-distribution based cumulative risk functions, and Weibull-distribution based control charts. The new methodology is applied to an underground coal mining worksystem and the results are discussed. The case study results show that hazards related to machinery, ground-fall, housekeeping, roadways, and materials are more frequently occurring. It is recommended that in addition to planned inspections for identification of hazards, a control chart based hazard mitigation scheme should be employed at the mine sections for better monitoring and control of hazards.     

The hazards and risks of hydrogen

An analysis was completed of the hazards and risks of hydrogen, compared to the traditional fuel sources of gasoline and natural gas (methane). The study was based entirely on the physical properties of these fuels, and not on any process used to store and extract the energy. The study was motivated by the increased interest in hydrogen as a fuel source for automobiles.The results show that, for flammability hazards, hydrogen has an increased flammability range, a lower ignition energy and a higher deflagration index. For both gasoline and natural gas (methane) the heat of combustion is higher (on a mole basis). Thus, hydrogen has a somewhat higher flammability hazard.The risk is based on probability and consequence. The probability of a fire or explosion is based on the flammability range, the auto-ignition temperature and the minimum ignition energy. In this case, hydrogen has a larger flammability zone and a lower minimum ignition energy—thus the probability of a fire or explosion is higher. The consequence of a fire or explosion is based on the heat of combustion, the maximum pressure during combustion, and the deflagration index. Hydrogen has an increased consequence due to the large value of the deflagration index while gasoline and natural gas (methane) have a higher heat of combustion. Thus, based on physical properties alone, hydrogen poses an increase risk, primarily due to the increased probability of ignition.This study was unable to assess the effects of the increased buoyancy of hydrogen—which might change the probability depending on the actual physical situation.A complete hazard and risk analysis must be completed once the actual equipment for hydrogen storage and energy extraction is specified. This paper discusses the required procedure.     

Strategies for controlling hazards at work

This paper presents an heuristic framework for analyzing hazards (potential for loss or harm) and strategies that may be developed to control their realization. Two basic forms of intervention for hazard control (anticipation and reaction) are identified. Three broad anticipative strategies are discussed: (1) elimination of the source of the hazard, (2) containment of the risk of its realization, and (3) mitigation of likely consequences. The communication and judgmental processes involved in decisions about strategies are shown to be embedded in the organizational “political” context, in which a variety of interests backed by varying sources of power and influence are represented. The development, implementation, and monitoring of any strategies that are decided upon are then discussed, including the fact that such actions and events may not produce the intended results. Comments are also made on the need for data provided by monitoring to be evaluated and appropriate adaptations made. Finally, a brief section of the paper discusses reactive strategies.     

Does the potential safety risk affect whether particular construction hazards are recognized or not?

Introduction: Evidence from the global construction industry suggests that an unacceptable number of safety hazards remain unrecognized in construction workplaces. Unfortunately, there isn’t a sufficient understanding of why particular safety hazards remain unrecognized. Such an understanding is important to address the issue of poor hazard recognition and develop remedial interventions. A recent exploratory effort provided anecdotal evidence that workers often fail to recognize safety hazards that are expected to impose relatively lower levels of safety risk. In other words, the research demonstrated that the underlying risk imposed by a safety hazard can affect whether a hazard will be recognized or not. Method: The presented research focused on empirically testing this preliminary finding. More specifically, the study tested the proposition that Construction workers are more likely to recognize safety hazards that impose higher levels of safety risk than those that impose relatively lower levels of safety risk. The research goals were accomplished through a number of steps. First, a set of 16 construction case images depicting a variety of construction operations that included a number of known safety hazards was presented to a panel of four construction safety experts. The experts were tasked with examining each of the known safety hazards and providing a rating of the relative safety risk that the individual hazards impose. Having obtained an estimate of the underlying safety risk, a hazard recognition activity was administered to 287 workers recruited from 57 construction workplaces in the United States. The hazard recognition activity involved the examination of a random sample of two construction case images that were previously examined by the expert panel and reporting relevant safety hazards. Results: The results of the study provided support for the proposition that workers are more likely to recognize hazards that impose relatively higher levels of safety risk. Practical Applications: The findings of the study can be leveraged to improve existing hazard recognition methods and develop more robust interventions to address the issue of poor hazard recognition levels.     

环境风险源及其分类方法研究

环境风险源的分类是进行环境风险源识别和监管的基础.已有的以人的安全为主要关注对象的重大危险源管理,对事故的潜在环境危害考虑欠缺,无法体现事故可能产生的环境风险影响.阐明环境风险源的基本概念,比较环境风险源与危险源的区别,针对环境风险源的特点,从环境受体、危害物质状态和风险传播方式3个方面提出了环境风险源的分类方法.实际应用中,环境风险源的分类需综合考虑当地环境管理需求、环境受体状况、主要危害物质类别等,选择合适的分类方法.