Implementation of ecological modeling as an effective management and investigation tool: Lake Kinneret as a case study

The need for scientifically based management of lakes, as key water resources, requires the establishment of quantitative relationships between in-lake processes responsible for water quality (WQ) and the intensity of major management measures (MM, e.g. nutrient loading). In this paper, we estimate the impact of potential changes in nutrient loading on the Lake Kinneret ecosystem. Following validation of the model against a comprehensive dataset, we applied an approach that goes beyond scenario testing by linking the lake ecosystem model DYRESM–CAEDYM with a set of ecosystem variables included in a pre-assessed system of water quality indices. The emergent properties of the ecosystem predicted from the model simulations were also compared with lake data as a form of indirect validation of the model. Model output, in good agreement with lake data, indicated differential effects of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient loading on concentrations, and major in-lake fluxes, of TN and TP, and dynamics and algal community structure. Both model output and lake data indicated a strong relationship between nitrogen loading and in-lake TN values. This relationship is not apparent for phosphorus and only a weak relationship exists between phosphorus loading and in-lake TP. The modeling results, expressed in terms of water quality, allowed establishment of critical/threshold values for the nutrient loads. Implementation of the ecological modeling supplemented with the quantified set of WQ indices allowed us to take a step towards establishment of the association between permissible ranges for water quality and major management measures, i.e. towards sustainable management.     

Nutrient cycling by fish supports relatively more primary production as lake productivity increases

Animals can be important in nutrient cycling in particular ecosystems, but few studies have examined how this importance varies along environmental gradients. In this study we quantified the nutrient cycling role of an abundant detritivorous fish species, the gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum), in reservoir ecosystems along a gradient of ecosystem productivity. Gizzard shad feed mostly on sediment detritus and excrete sediment-derived nutrients into the water column, thereby mediating a cross-habitat translocation of nutrients to phytoplankton. We quantified nitrogen and phosphorus cycling (excretion) rates of gizzard shad, as well as nutrient demand by phytoplankton, in seven lakes over a four-year period (16 lake-years). The lakes span a gradient of watershed land use (the relative amounts of land used for agriculture vs. forest) and productivity. As the watersheds of these lakes became increasingly dominated by agricultural land, primary production rates, lake trophic state indicators (total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations), and nutrient flux through gizzard shad populations all increased. Nutrient cycling by gizzard shad supported a substantial proportion of primary production in these ecosystems, and this proportion increased as watershed agriculture (and ecosystem productivity) increased. In the four productive lakes with agricultural watersheds (>78% agricultural land), gizzard shad supported on average 51% of phytoplankton primary production (range 27-67%). In contrast, in the three relatively unproductive lakes in forested or mixed-land-use watersheds (>47% forest, <52% agricultural land), gizzard shad supported 18% of primary production (range 14-23%). Thus, along a gradient of forested to agricultural landscapes, both watershed nutrient inputs and nutrient translocation by gizzard shad increase, but our data indicate that the importance of nutrient translocation by gizzard shad increases more rapidly. Our results therefore support the hypothesis that watersheds and gizzard shad jointly regulate primary production in reservoir ecosystems.     

农村小流域景观结构与水质耦合关系分析——以仪征市陈集镇为例

选择江苏省仪征市陈集镇2个典型的农村小流域进行水质监测和景观空间分异耦合关系研究,结果表明:不同地势区景观结构差异明显,水环境特征也有较大差别。随着地势的降低,总氮、总磷浓度在小徐庄流域呈降低趋势,而高塘流域则先升高后降低;总磷、总氮、氨氮、硝态氮浓度与源景观比例、沟渠密度和景观多样性指数具有良好的相关关系,逐步回归分析发现,94%的总氮浓度由源景观比例和沟渠密度决定,80%以上的氨氮和硝态氮浓度由源景观比例决定。因此,可以通过对流域景观结构的优化调整,达到对流域景观中养分的有效管理,实现对农业非点源污染的控制。     

贵州草海湿地农田渠系水质空间分异特征及影响分析

为了解草海湿地农田渠系水质现状、空间分异特征及影响因素,于2011年秋季对草海湿地进行大空间尺度的采样,分析了氮磷等理化指标,采用单因子污染指数法和营养状态指数法分别对农田渠系水质和湖泊营养状态进行评价.结果表明,草海湿地农田渠系水质污染严重,多数水质为V类或劣V类,总氮和溶解氧是水体中的主要污染因子;上游水质劣于下游,尤其是上游靠近县城区域的水质最差;多等级排水渠系对氮磷具有一定的截留作用,干渠V级水质好于低级渠系水质;不同的土地利用方式对水质的影响不同,城镇用地>集中式村落>农田;草海湿地水体上、中、下游营养水平分别为中度富营养、轻度富营养和中营养,外源污染物的累积和湖泊营养水平的提高导致其沼泽化,而流域不合理的土地利用结构加剧了沼泽化的进程.     

中国东部浅水湖泊沉积物总氮总磷基准阈值研究

受人类活动的影响,东部浅水湖泊沉积物中总氮、总磷负荷很高,当外来污染源得到控制时,底泥中的营养盐会逐渐释放出来,对湖泊水质与生态系统影响很大。为合理削减湖泊内源污染,控制沉积物中营养盐向上覆水体释放,研究制定东部浅水湖泊沉积物总氮、总磷基准阈值,分别测定了100个湖泊的896个表层沉积物样品和8个典型湖泊11个柱芯的沉积物总氮（TN）、总磷（TP）含量,分析了沉积物TN、TP浓度剖面分布特征。通过频度分布法对100个湖泊沉积物总氮总磷的污染状况进行评价,通过背景值比较法确定了8个典型湖泊沉积物的TN、TP背景值。结果表明,100个湖泊的表层沉积物TN浓度范围在479.70~5 573.65 mg·kg-1,TP浓度范围在248.44~1000.33 mg·kg-1,不同湖泊表层沉积物中TN、TP值差异较大。8个典型湖泊沉积物总氮、总磷含量整体上表现出随着深度增加而下降变化趋势,在深层沉积物中含量保持稳定。所调查8个湖泊TN均值为1443.83 mg·kg-1,变化范围为247.45~3719.46 mg·kg-1,各湖泊中TN均值表现为：沱湖〉焦岗湖〉花园湖〉七里湖〉北民湖〉大通湖〉城东湖〉瓦埠湖;TP均值为519.62 mg·kg-1,变化范围为225.41~1944.89 mg·kg-1,各湖泊中TP均值表现为：北民湖〉大通湖〉七里湖〉焦岗湖〉沱湖〉瓦埠湖〉城东湖〉花园湖。不同湖泊沉积物总氮、总磷背景值差异很大。通过对100个湖泊表层沉积物TN、TP的频度分析发现,沉积物营养盐含量上25%点位对应的TP质量浓度398.51mg·kg-1,TN质量浓度为1106.24 mg·kg-1,沉积物营养盐含量下25%点位对应的TP质量浓度664.58 mg·kg-1,TN质量浓度为2916.66 mg·kg-1。通过互相之间的比较分析,推荐采用背景值比较法确定的各湖泊沉积物总氮、总磷背景值均值与频度分步法25%点位对应的总氮值和40%点位对应的总磷值作为东部浅水湖泊沉积物总氮、总磷基准阈值。因此,?     

Source identification and prediction of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution of Lake Taihu by an ensemble machine learning technique

● A machine learning model was used to identify lake nutrient pollution sources. ● XGBoost model showed the best performance for lake water quality prediction. ● Model feature size was reduced by screening the key features with the MIC method. ● TN and TP concentrations of Lake Taihu are mainly affected by endogenous sources. ● Next-month lake TN and TP concentrations were predicted accurately. Effective control of lake eutrophication necessitates a full understanding of the complicated nitrogen and phosphorus pollution sources, for which mathematical modeling is commonly adopted. In contrast to the conventional knowledge-based models that usually perform poorly due to insufficient knowledge of pollutant geochemical cycling, we employed an ensemble machine learning (ML) model to identify the key nitrogen and phosphorus sources of lakes. Six ML models were developed based on 13 years of historical data of Lake Taihu’s water quality, environmental input, and meteorological conditions, among which the XGBoost model stood out as the best model for total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) prediction. The results suggest that the lake TN is mainly affected by the endogenous load and inflow river water quality, while the lake TP is predominantly from endogenous sources. The prediction of the lake TN and TP concentration changes in response to these key feature variations suggests that endogenous source control is a highly desirable option for lake eutrophication control. Finally, one-month-ahead prediction of lake TN and TP concentrations (R² of 0.85 and 0.95, respectively) was achieved based on this model with sliding time window lengths of 9 and 6 months, respectively. Our work demonstrates the great potential of using ensemble ML models for lake pollution source tracking and prediction, which may provide valuable references for early warning and rational control of lake eutrophication.     

Simulating the impacts of land-use changes on non-point source pollution in Lugu Lake watershed

Protection of the water quality of Lugu Lake is important because it is a unique geographic and cultural resource. Not only point source pollution but also non-point source pollution contribute to degradation of water quality. A GIS-NPS model, with long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA), was used to evaluate long-term implications of land-use change impacts on non-point source (NPS) pollution. The land-use patterns of 1995 and 2005 were analysed to determine the changes in Lugu Lake watershed. A 30-year (1974–2003) precipitation dataset was used to estimate mean annual surface runoff and NPS pollutant loads. The contributions of different land-use categories to average annual runoff and NPS pollutant production were assessed with a unit contribution index (UCI). Results show loss of agricultural land (by 44.9%), while forest, grass/pasture and residential land increased to different degrees from 1995 to 2005. At the same time, annual average NPS pollutants, TN, TP, TSS and BOD loads all decreased, while heavy metal lead increased by 6.87%. The UCI formulated in this research was a more useful method to assess land-use impact on NPS pollutants than simple investigations of the percentage land-use change. Agricultural and residential land changes had more impact on NPS pollutants and were identified as the main source types. Suggestions on regulating land uses and management proposals for protecting lake water quality in Lugu Lake watershed are made.     

不同源类型农业非点源负荷特征研究——以新田小流域为例

以珠江三角洲北部新田小流域为研究对象,采用源类型法,在流域范围内建立林地、果园、旱地和水田四个全封闭的农业用地单元,并对四个单元出口处的径流量进行同步采样,分析COD、BOD、氨氮、总氮和总磷等污染物的负荷特征.结果表明:(1)流域地表水存在着明显非点源污染现象,不同源类型,地表径流的污染程度不同.(2)不同源类型农业非点源污染负荷强度不同,其中水田、旱地单位面积非点源负荷强度较大,果园、林地各项污染物的负荷强度相对最小.受地表扰动、施肥等人类活动影响,流域内水田、旱地是农业非点源污染发生的关键源区.(3)流域范围内,不同源类型农业非点源负荷总量不同,其中,果园各项污染物非点源负荷总量最大,其次是林地,水田、旱地非点源负荷输出总量较小,流域范围内,源面积成为影响非点源负荷总量的主要因素.(4)相应的非点源污染治理不仅是关键源区,同时应关注大面积流失区.     

Effects of land use on water quality of two high-altitude lakes and catchments in Yunnan Province,China

SUMMARY

Reclaiming farmland from lakes in China in the 1950s damaged the water quality of many lakes. Tremendous efforts have been made since the late 1990s to restore vegetation around the damaged lakes. This paper examines water quality of Fuxian and Qilu Lakes and land-use characteristics within the two catchments in the high-altitude area of Yunnan Province, China. Landsat TM data acquired in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2005 were used to extract land use and land cover (LULC) information. Measurements of five water quality indices (WQIs), BOD, COD, pH, TN and TP, for the same period of time were examined. The results showed that the area of residential and forest/shrub increased, whereas that of cropland and barren land decreased from 1989 to 2005 in both catchments. Qilu Lake was much more polluted than Fuxian Lake, and pollution worsened over time for both lakes. The differences in water quality between the two lakes were caused by differences in LULC composition and continued degradation in water quality was caused by intensive farming and urban sprawl. Unless the landscape is converted back to its pre-1950 composition and structure, water quality in both lakes cannot be significantly improved and will continue to threaten sustainable development in the region.     

长三角城郊樟溪流域水体氮磷分布特征及其影响因素

快速城镇化和人类活动导致城郊流域水体营养盐污染和富营养化问题加重,识别氮、磷污染对流域水质的管控具有重要的意义。本研究选取长三角典型城郊地区宁波樟溪流域,在流域内根据土地利用类型、地形特征等布设样点,于2016年连续4个季度进行水样采集,研究樟溪流域河流水体氮、磷的含量及形态,及氮、磷在该流域的时空分布特征,并对其来源和影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明,流域内氮、磷分布具有较大的空间差异性,其中NH+4-N(n.d.~1.375 mg·L~(-1))、TN-N(0.570~11.363 mg·L~(-1))、DIP(n.d.~0.169 mg·L~(-1))、TP(0.010~1.908 mg·L~(-1))。在子流域空间分布上,人类活动频度越高的区域氮、磷的浓度越高,各采样点水体不同形态氮含量和磷含量具有明显的季节变化规律:春季和秋季的含量要高于夏季和冬季。本研究选取采样点距城镇距离、距源头距离以及土地利用类型所占采样点缓冲区的比例来表征人类活动的影响,结果表明,TN和TP含量与距城镇距离呈显著负相关关系,表明城镇化水平对流域氮、磷污染的重要影响。另外,典型城郊流域河流水体氮、磷污染主要受土地利用类型的影响,其含量与农业和城镇用地呈显著正相关关系(P0.01),其含量随人类活动频度的增加而升高。     

草、藻型湖泊水体生态及理化特性的实验对比

2006年9月,根据营养水平和种植水草的差异设计了6个浅水湖泊模拟系统,实验用水草为菹草(Potamogeton crispusLinn.)和马来眼子菜(Potamogeton malaianus-Miq).在15个月实验期间,通过多次监测各系统的景观外貌和水质,对草、藻型湖泊生态及理化特性的差异进行研究,得出以下结论:(1)草、藻型系统分别对应清水和浊水2种状态,景观外貌差异很大.(2)水草可使湖泊系统维持在清水状态,在一定条件下,甚至可使富营养化湖泊维持在清水状态;但是水草腐烂分解等也可使水质迅速恶化,甚至引起湖泊草、藻状态的转变;关键在于,对于不断变化的环境条件,系统内水草能否健康生长.(3)由于营养和生产力水平低,贫营养系统的水质指标随时间变化较小,草、藻型系统间的差异不明显,DO变化范围分别为8.1～14.4 mg·L~(-1)、7.5～11.6 mg·L~(-1),pH 8.71～9.89、8.25～9.22,TP 0.006～0.012 mg·L~(-1)、0.006～0.053 mg·L~(-1),TN 0.11～0.71 mg·L~(-1)、0.10～0.83 mg·L~(-1),NH_4~+-N 0.01～0.17 mg·L~(-1)、0.01～0.26 mg·L~(-1),PO_4~(3-)-P 0.002～0.012 mg·L~(-1)、0.000～0.008mg·L~(-1).(4)由于水草和藻类的大量生长等,中营养与富营养系统湖水的DO、pH、水温和NH_4~+-N的日变化明显,日变化曲线呈“⌒”形,且具有季节性变化规律;由于水草向底泥中输氧气等原因,与藻型湖泊相比,草型湖泊水中TP、TN和NH_4~+-N的浓度较低,PO_4~(3-)-P浓度较高,草、藻型系统的TP均值分别为0.16、0.51 mg·L~(-1),TN 1.30、8.32 mg·L~(-1),NH_4~+-N 0.19、0.43mg·L~(-1),PO_4~(3-)-P 0.07、0.01 mg·L~(-1).     

Watershed land use as a determinant of metal concentrations in freshwater systems

Concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cu, dissolved organic matter (DOM), and pH were synthesized from 30 publications to determine the factors regulating concentrations and behavior of metals in freshwater systems. Results from the review suggest that contrasting watershed land use can directly (erosion and runoff) and indirectly (in-lake processes including metal–DOM–pH interactions) affect the metal concentrations in freshwater systems. Among the watershed land uses considered here, concentrations of Fe, Mn, and Cu were observed in the following order: arctic lakes < forested < agricultural < urbanized < mined. A drastic difference in mean metal concentrations has been observed when undisturbed or low impact watersheds (arctic and forested) were changed by agricultural, urban, and mining developments. Relationships between metal concentrations and pH revealed that metals precipitate at high pH (pH > 5). Additionally, at pH < 5, metal concentrations were significantly correlated with DOM due to metal–DOM complexation. High ratios of metal: DOM occur only at low DOM concentrations. Collectively, two general conclusions can be drawn from this review. First, lakes, rivers, and streams with urbanized watersheds are the most susceptible to increased concentrations of metals. Secondly, these results also suggest that regardless of high or low DOM in the water column, pH would affect metal concentrations in freshwater systems. Nonetheless, free metal ions would be higher in freshwater systems with acidic water and low DOM.     

程海冬季水华暴发期间氮、磷营养元素的形态与分布

氮、磷营养元素是湖泊生态系统中极其重要的生态因子,它们以不同形态存在于湖泊水体中,表现出不同的地球化学行为和生态效应,从而支配着湖泊生态系统的生产力水平和湖泊富营养化进程。通过设置3个断面9个采样站14个采样点,研究了程海湖水体中氮、磷营养元素的形态与分布,结果表明：2009年11月23日—2010年2月20日,以铜绿微囊藻（Microcystis aeruginosa Kutz.）为主的程海冬季水华暴发期间,总氮质量浓度0.540~3.906 mg.L-1,平均0.836 mg.L-1;总磷质量浓度0.036~0.166 mg.L-1,平均0.061 mg.L-1。其中,溶解态氮、溶解态磷分别为61.7%和50.8%。溶解态氮以有机氮为主,溶解态磷则以无机磷为主。水华期间生物可直接利用氮质量浓度0.118 mg.L-1;生物可直接利用磷质量浓度0.021 mg.L-1,分别占总氮、总磷质量浓度的14.1%和34.4%,显示出此特定时期,氮的消耗速度较磷快。氮素、磷素及其赋存形态在程海的时间分布上有不同的节奏;水平分布差异不明显;垂直分布在水表层至亚底层的水柱中差异也不明显,而在湖底层最高。     

洞庭湖浮游植物增长的限制性营养元素研究

近20年水质监测资料表明,洞庭湖水体富营养化日趋严重。洞庭湖水体主要污染物为氮和磷,而营养盐赋存形态及其含量对浮游植物生长的影响在洞庭湖尚未见报道。2011年9月至2012年8月对洞庭湖浮游植物生物量及主要营养盐赋存形态与含量进行监测,同时利用藻类增长的生物学（NEB）评价方法对限制浮游植物增长的营养盐进行了研究,并分析了浮游植物生物量与各营养元素之间的相关性。结果表明：洞庭湖主要污染物总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）的年平均值分别为1.90 mg·L-1和0.093 mg·L-1,溶解态无机氮（DIN）平均占ρ（TN）比例为87%,溶解态总磷（DTP）平均占ρ（TP）比例为70%。洞庭湖水体中,DIN是TN的主要贡献者,且不同形态DIN的贡献大小依次为ρ（NO3--N）〉ρ（NH4＋-N）〉ρ（NO2--N）;磷形态组成中,TP主要以溶解反应性磷（SRP）存在。春季洞庭湖水体中ρ（TN）、ρ（TP）较高,这一结果可能源于春季面源污染。洞庭湖水体中ρ（Chla）与氮显著正相关,与磷显著负相关。NEB 实验结果表明氮对洞庭湖浮游植物生长有明显的促进作用,其幅度随氮浓度的增加而加强,而磷对浮游植物的生长影响不大,有时出现抑制作用,硝态氮与磷之间不存在交互作用。因此,氮可能是洞庭湖浮游植物增长的主要限制性营养因子,这一研究暗示在洞庭湖富营养化控制过程中应特别注重氮的控制。     

湖泊营养物基准的候选变量和指标

湖泊营养物基准指标变量是可用于衡量水质、评价或预测水体的营养状态或富营养化程度的变量,是构成建立区域和湖泊营养物基准的基础。详细介绍和分析了氮、磷两个营养物变量和有机碳、叶绿素、透明度、溶解氧、大型植物、生物群落结构等生物学指标,以及营养状态指标、自养指数、温度、pH值、电导率以及土地利用等一系列相关变量（度量或指标）,并总结了当前美国各州在湖泊营养物基准指标选取方面的基本情况。归纳出选择营养物基准指标时应遵循的若干原则,即综合考虑富营养化控制关键因子和区域差异性,所选指标应具有相对稳定、早期预警和易于监测等特点。最后针对我国湖泊营养物基准指标的选取提出了几点建议。     

富营养化对浅水湖泊轮虫种群结构影响研究

石臼湖和固城湖是长江中下游两个浅水湖泊,富营养化问题日益突出。为探索湖泊富营养化对轮虫的影响,于2012年平水期和枯水期对这两个湖泊轮虫种群结构进行了调查,并检测水体理化因子,分析轮虫分布与水环境因子及水体富营养状况的关系。水质检测结果显示,平水期石臼湖除个别点水体综合营养状态指数（TLI）〉50为轻度富营养状态外,大多数站点TLI50,处于轻度-中度富营养化状态。水生生物调查检出轮虫35种,其中石臼湖33种,固城湖27种,平水期种类多于枯水期。出现的轮虫以臂尾轮虫（Brachionus）和异尾轮虫（Trichocerca）居多,优势种主要有螺形龟甲轮虫（Keratella cochlearis）、广生多肢轮虫（Polyarthra vulgaris）、疣毛轮虫（Trichocerca sp.）、沟痕泡轮虫（Pompholyx sulcata）、异尾轮虫属和臂尾轮虫属等。轮虫平均密度3023.19 ind·L-1,平均生物量745.72μg·L-1。现存量季节变动明显,大部分站点平水期大于枯水期。轮虫多样性指数也是平水期大于枯水期,石臼湖轮虫多样性大于固城湖。水体综合营养状态指数（TLI）与轮虫种类数和多样性成显著负相关,随着富营养化加剧,轮虫种类减少,多样性降低。典范对应分析（Canonical Correspondence Analysis,CCA）表明,影响轮虫种群分布的主要环境因子为NH4＋-N、TN、TP和CODMn。按轮虫丰度分布与水环境因子的关系排序,2次调查的24个站点可大致分成3个组。轮虫种群结构受水体富营养状态影响,每组站点的代表性种类对水体营养状态有较好的指示作用。组1的代表性种类为曲腿龟甲轮虫,指示营养级别O-β;组2代表性种类萼花臂尾轮虫,指示的营养级别为β-α;组3以O营养级种类为主。     

涟江上游表层岩溶泉水污染源解析

为明确涟江上游表层岩溶泉水化学污染特征及其污染来源,选取区域内7个地表饮用泉作为研究对象.测定泉水水温(T)、电导率(EC)、溶解氧(DO)、pH、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、氨氮(NH4-N)、硝氮(NO₃-N)、高锰酸盐指数(COD)并研究其与泉眼半径200、500、1000 m范围内耕地、住宅用地及交通用地面积的相关性.研究结果表明,依据地表水环境质量标准(GB3838-02)等水质标准,涟江上游7个表层岩溶泉水TN均超标,耕地周围的泉水TP、NH₄-N、NO₃-N也超过标准值,表明该区域表层岩溶泉水总体高N而局部高P的污染特征.主成分分析表明农业活动对泉水TN、TP、NH₄-N、NO₃-N及COD含量产生了一定的影响.泉眼半径200 m范围内耕地面积与TP、NH₄-N显著正相关,表明小范围内农业活动是泉水N、P污染的主要源头;500 m范围内EC与住宅用地面积显著正相关,表明较大规模人类聚居可能造成泉水离子成分偏复杂.从保护地表饮用泉的角度出发,建议泉眼半径200 m内减少农业活动强度及频率,泉眼半径500 m内控制人口密度及日常生活排污量.     

Case study on nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from paddy field in Taihu region

The agricultural non-point source pollution by nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loss from typical paddy soil (whitish soil, Bai Tu in Chinese) in the Taihu Lake region was investigated through a case study. Results shown that the net load of nutrients from white soil is 34.1 kg ha(-1) for total nitrogen (TN), distributed as 19.4 kg ha(-1), in the rice season and 14.7 kg ha(-1) in the wheat season, and for total phosphorus (TP) 1.75 kg ha(-1), distributed as 1.16 kg ha(-1) in the rice season and 0.58 kg ha(-1) in the wheat season. The major chemical species of N loss is different in the two seasons. NH4-N is main the form in the rice season (53% of TN). NO3-N is the main form in wheat season (46% of TN). Particle-P is the main form in both seasons, (about 56% of TP). The nutrient loss varied with time of the year. The main loss of nutrients happened in the 10 days after planting, 64% of TN and 42% of TP loss, respectively. Rainfall and fertilizer application are the key factors which influence nitrogen and phosphorus loss from arable land, especially rainfall events shortly after fertilizer application. So it is very important to improve the field management of the nutrients and water during the early days of planting.     

Impact of climate factors on cyanobacterial dynamics and their interactions with water quality in South Taihu Lake,China

Cyanobacterial bloom events in South Taihu Lake cause serious water quality problems and disturb aesthetic view of lake’s environment. In this study, correlations between cyanobacterial blooms and hydro-meteorological factors, including water quality, temperature and precipitation were investigated. Results demonstrated that South Taihu Lake was heavily affected by cyanobacteria and the proliferation of cyanobacteria due to variations in hydro-meteorological factors and water quality conditions. Water quality parameters, including COD, NH₃-N, TN and TP improved significantly since 2008 even at an elevated cyanobacterial bloom situation. Correlation analyses have shown that the development of cyanobacterial density and chlorophyll a concentration was sensitive to a wider temperature variation. The optimum temperature for cyanobacteria was 20°C, while extremely low and high temperatures were found to suppress their growth. Moreover, unusual rainfall patterns were measured during the study period (2003–2009), which showed an adverse impact on cyanobacterial development. Findings from this study suggested that seasonal lake’s water quality monitoring; suitable treatment of cyanobacterial blooms and strict policy implementation can solve the water quality issues in highly eutrophic lakes like Taihu.     

中国湖泊富营养化影响因素研究——基于中国22个湖泊实证分析

基于1：25万河流水系和数字高程（DEM）数据制备了选取湖泊的流域边界,据其集成了流域社会经济数据,并据中国科学院资源环境数据中心提供的1990、1995、2000、2005年4个时段土地利用数据形成了流域反映人类活动强度的表征指标,选取了全国湖泊富营养化区域差异性调查课题获取的案例湖泊的水质数据,集成了中国湖泊富营养化影响因素计量分析的面板数据集,研究了1990-2005年间中国湖泊营养状态的发展趋势与差异特征,探讨了湖泊富营养化的自然气候与社会经济影响机制,构建了中国湖泊富营养化影响因素分析的计量模型,厘定了1990-2005年间影响湖泊营养状态变化的重要因素,测度了其对湖泊富营养化的影响方向和作用强度。基于面板数据的计量分析结果表明,近15年人类活动强度对湖泊营养状态呈显著的正影响,其表征指标人均GDP与建设用地所占流域面积比均具有较强的显著性,而在人类扰动较小的情况下,湖泊的营养状态与湖泊补给系数成正比,与湖泊蓄容量成反比,补给系数较小且其他因素也相同时,水体营养状态应与流域土壤本底值相关;以林、草地的面积比重所测度的流域自然生态系统发育程度与湖泊营养状态呈显著负相关关系,表明林地与草地生态系统对流域的氮、磷营养物的人湖量具有一定的削减作用,论文研究结果将为流域管理措施方案制订提供科技支撑。