Sustainability or collapse: what can we learn from integrating the history of humans and the rest of nature?

Understanding the history of how humans have interacted with the rest of nature can help clarify the options for managing our increasingly interconnected global system. Simple, deterministic relationships between environmental stress and social change are inadequate. Extreme drought, for instance, triggered both social collapse and ingenious management of water through irrigation. Human responses to change, in turn, feed into climate and ecological systems, producing a complex web of multidirectional connections in time and space. Integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleoenvironmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. But, if we can adequately understand the past, we can use that understanding to influence our decisions and to create a better, more sustainable and desirable future.     

Towards global phosphorus security: a systems framework for phosphorus recovery and reuse options

Human intervention in the global phosphorus cycle has mobilised nearly half a billion tonnes of the element from phosphate rock into the hydrosphere over the past half century. The resultant water pollution concerns have been the main driver for sustainable phosphorus use (including phosphorus recovery). However the emerging global challenge of phosphorus scarcity with serious implications for future food security, means phosphorus will also need to be recovered for productive reuse as a fertilizer in food production to replace increasingly scarce and more expensive phosphate rock. Through an integrated and systems framework, this paper examines the full spectrum of sustainable phosphorus recovery and reuse options (from small-scale low-cost to large-scale high-tech), facilitates integrated decision-making and identifies future opportunities and challenges for achieving global phosphorus security. Case studies are provided rather than focusing on a specific technology or process. There is no single solution to achieving a phosphorus-secure future: in addition to increasing phosphorus use efficiency, phosphorus will need to be recovered and reused from all current waste streams throughout the food production and consumption system (from human and animal excreta to food and crop wastes). There is a need for new sustainable policies, partnerships and strategic frameworks to develop renewable phosphorus fertilizer systems for farmers. Further research is also required to determine the most sustainable means in a given context for recovering phosphorus from waste streams and converting the final products into effective fertilizers, accounting for life cycle costs, resource and energy consumption, availability, farmer accessibility and pollution.     

Ecological recovery of vegetation at a former industrial sludge basin and its implications to phytoremediation

Examination of a former industrial sludge basin containing organic pollutants showed that the basin had undergone substantial ecological recovery through natural forces following the removal of surface water in 1982. Conventional phases of ecological recovery (plant invasion and succession) have occurred, but the structure of the biodiverse plant community (51 species and 22 families) was different from that at a recovering non-polluted disturbed site. Three plant species (Bermuda grass, mulberry, and sunflower) believed to be early invaders of the basin still persist in large numbers indicating that these species are well suited to cope with normal environmental stresses at this area (i.e. seasonal drought and flood) as well as organic pollutants. There was an indication that early invaders of the site fostered disappearance of contaminants thereby creating more favorable conditions for a broader spectrum of plants to grow. Vegetation analyses of naturally vegetated hazardous waste sites hold promise as a screening device for identifying plant species and management practices worthy of further phytoremediation investigations.     

Coupling Socioeconomic and Lake Systems for Sustainability: A Conceptual Analysis Using Lake St. Clair Region as a Case Study

Applying sustainability at an operational level requires understanding the linkages between socioeconomic and natural systems. We identified linkages in a case study of the Lake St. Clair (LSC) region, part of the Laurentian Great Lakes system. Our research phases included: (1) investigating and revising existing coupled human and natural systems frameworks to develop a framework for this case study; (2) testing and refining the framework by hosting a 1-day stakeholder workshop and (3) creating a causal loop diagram (CLD) to illustrate the relationships among the systems’ key components. With stakeholder assistance, we identified four interrelated pathways that include water use and discharge, land use, tourism and shipping that impact the ecological condition of LSC. The interrelationships between the pathways of water use and tourism are further illustrated by a CLD with several feedback loops. We suggest that this holistic approach can be applied to other case studies and inspire the development of dynamic models capable of informing decision making for sustainability.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0432-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

An ecologically relevant exposure assessment for a polluted river using an integrated multivariate PLS approach

A case study is presented where an integrated, ecologically relevant exposure assessment is presented for a polluted lowland river. Using partial least squares regression of latent structures (PLS), an analysis of the impact of two effluents on physico-chemical water quality measures, macroinvertebrate and diatom communities, and in situ bioassay responses with four different test species are combined into an integrative exposure assessment. Bioassays focussed on growth and condition related endpoints, because they are key functional processes of organisms and populations. Integrating these multiple lines of evidence, we were able to discriminate among the impact of both effluents, link changes in physico-chemical water quality with bioassay endpoints and ecological quality of the ecosystem, and address the importance of integrating all information into one exposure assessment framework. The bioassays under field conditions indicated that most endpoints measured are a reflection of ecological effects rather than pollution related effects, or at least a combination of both ecological and toxicological effects. Factors such as food availability clearly influenced the outcome of in situ bioassays and ecological information was essential to explain observed discrepancies when trying to extrapolate bioassay results from the laboratory to the field.     

A conceptual framework for understanding illegal killing of large carnivores

The growing complexity and global nature of wildlife poaching threaten the survival of many species worldwide and are outpacing conservation efforts. Here, we reviewed proximal and distal factors, both social and ecological, driving illegal killing or poaching of large carnivores at sites where it can potentially occur. Through this review, we developed a conceptual social–ecological system framework that ties together many of the factors influencing large carnivore poaching. Unlike most conservation action models, an important attribute of our framework is the integration of multiple factors related to both human motivations and animal vulnerability into feedbacks. We apply our framework to two case studies, tigers in Laos and wolverines in northern Sweden, to demonstrate its utility in disentangling some of the complex features of carnivore poaching that may have hindered effective responses to the current poaching crisis. Our framework offers a common platform to help guide future research on wildlife poaching feedbacks, which has hitherto been lacking, in order to effectively inform policy making and enforcement.     

Resilience of epilithic algal assemblages in atmospherically and experimentally acidified boreal lakes

Algal assemblages can be highly responsive to environmental changes in recovering acidified lakes. We compared epilithic algal assemblages in boreal lakes during chemical recovery from atmospheric (Killarney Park, Ontario) and experimental (Lake 302S, Experimental Lakes Area, Ontario) acidification to assess the impact of spatial and temporal scale of severe acidification on taxonomic resilience (i.e. recovery rate). Resilience was measured as the distance traveled by lakes in ordination space during pH recovery based on canonical correspondence analysis. Resilience was relatively negligible in the Killarney lakes, suggesting that eight years of experimental acidification in Lake 302S had less impact on biological recovery than did decades of regional acidification. Increases in dissolved organic carbon, dissolved inorganic carbon, and calcium best explained temporal variance of epilithic species abundances in the recovering acidified lakes. In Lake 302S, contrasting trajectories of taxonomic resilience and resistance, i.e. displacement from reference conditions following a perturbation, indicated that ecological factors affecting epilithon differed at corresponding pH levels during recovery and acidification. Our findings reveal that modeling of ecosystem recovery from severe acidification must account for the spatial and temporal scale of the perturbation, and biological delay responses that result in differences between recovery and acidification trajectories.     

Control of Malodors from Kraft Recovery Operations by Pyrolysis

The major source of malodorous emissions which emanate from kraft mills is the recovery furnace and its associated direct contact evaporator. The primary reasons for this problem are gross furnace overloading and/or inadequate design. Existing recovery furnaces are incapable of carrying out, to an acceptable degree of completion, the complex sequence of physical and chemical steps which describe combustion. These steps are evaporation, sublimination, pyrolysis, recombination, and oxidation. A simplified odor model is presented which establishes the constraints which must be placed on the combustion phase of the recovery operation if environmental concentrations of malodorous compounds are to be held below their respective threshold odor levels. The pyrolysis and recombination steps of combustion have been isolated for study because they encompass the reaction mechanisms responsible for malodorous compound production. The findings of the steady state pyrolysis study indicate that the optimization of pyrolysis appears to be a very desirable process technique for abating alodorous emissions from kraft mills. The comprehensive data obtained in the study has engendered the current design and construction efforts toward a pilot plant operation.     

Predictive modeling of effects under global change

The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper. In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included. Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns of land use for societal needs. Models discussed relate to vegetation (e.g. crop), soil, bio-geochemistry, water, and wildlife responses to conventional, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation. Also described are models of these responses, alone and interactively, to increased CO(2), other air pollutants and UV-B radiation, as the state of the science allows. Further, models of land-use change are included. Additionally, global multiple sector models of environment, natural resources, human population dynamics, economics, energy, and political relations are reviewed for integrated impact assessment. To the extent available, information on computer software and hardware requirements is presented for the various models. The paper concludes with comments about using these technologies as they relate to ecological risk assessment for policy decision analysis. Such an effort is hampered by considerable uncertainties with the output of existing models, because of the uncertainties associated with input data and the definitions of their dose-response relationships. The concluding suggestions point the direction for new developments in modeling and analyses that are needed for the 21st century.     

Decreased acid deposition and the chemical recovery of Killarney,Ontario, lakes

Lakes in Killarney Park near Sudbury, Ontario, Canada, have shown dramatic water quality changes including general increases in pH and alkalinity, and decreases in SO4(2-), base cations and metals. While some lakes have recovered to pH > 6.0, many are still highly acidic despite decades of improvement. Very high historical S deposition related to emissions from the Sudbury metal smelters dominated the acidification process in this region. However, since the implementation of substantial S emission controls (90%) at the smelters, the Sudbury emissions are no longer the major source of S deposition in the Sudbury area. Wet deposition of SO4(2-) and SO4(2-) concentrations in lakewaters at Killarney now approach values in the Dorset, Ontario, area, about 200 km from Sudbury. This suggests that the S deposition to the Killarney area is now primarily from long-range transport, not from local sources. Studies of Killarney lakes are revealing the complex nature of the chemical recovery process. As lake acidity decreases, other changes including decreased Ca2+ concentrations, increased transparency, and altered thermal regimes may potentially affect some of these ecosystems. It is clear that continuing assessments of the recovery of Killarney lakes, within a multiple-stressor framework, are needed.     

Separation of finely dispersed sorbents from purified water by ultra-flocculation and turbulent micro-flotation

This paper describes studies of the process of recovery of finely dispersed sorbents from water by means of ultra-flocculation, sedimentation and turbulent micro-flotation, and the sequential combination of these steps. With reference to the most commonly used finely dispersed sorbents in the purification of water from organic contaminants, heavy metals and radio nuclides (aluminium hydroxide, sodium montmorillonite and nickel ferrocyanide), it has been shown that this approach is at least four times more effective for industrial wastewater purification and treatment of drinking water.     

Forest Die-Back Modified Plankton Recovery from Acidic Stress

We examined long-term data on water chemistry of Lake Rachelsee (Germany) following the changes in acidic depositions in central Europe since 1980s. Despite gradual chemical recovery of Rachelsee, its biological recovery was delayed. In 1999, lake recovery was abruptly reversed by a coincident forest die-back, which resulted in elevated terrestrial export of nitrate and ionic aluminum lasting ~5 years. This re-acidification episode provided unique opportunity to study plankton recovery in the rapidly recovering lake water after the abrupt decline in nitrate leaching from the catchment. There were sudden changes both in lake water chemistry and in plankton biomass structure, such as decreased bacterial filaments, increased phytoplankton biomass, and rotifer abundance. The shift from dominance of heterotrophic to autotrophic organisms suggested their substantial release from severe phosphorus stress. Such a rapid change in plankton structure in a lake recovering from acidity has, to the best of our knowledge, not been previously documented.     

Linking ecological and ecotoxicological techniques to support river rehabilitation

Human activities in river catchments interfere with natural fluxes of water and materials. Diffuse inputs and point-sources of toxicants have modified the ecological state of riverine communities considerably, and sanitation schemes are now under development for various rivers. To improve analysis, monitoring and prospecting the role of toxicants in river ecosystems a review of the available methods is undertaken. Ecotoxicological techniques are discussed in relation to basic ecological principles that are thought to regulate the functioning of communities. The response to toxicants among species is highly diverse and therefore the choice of test species (e.g. of typical riverine insects as caddisflies or mayflies) is critical, as it is the use of test-batteries. Long-term exposure may lead to developmental disturbances that may be assessed through morphometric techniques like analysis of asymmetry. Multi-generation exposure, although rarely studied, provides a useful insight into the genetic consequences of pollution. Selection for tolerant species or varieties has been experimentally assessed for smaller organisms such as insects, micro-algae, and bacteria. There is also perspective for multivariate analysis of species distribution in relation to pollutant exposure. Furthermore, a system approach to benthic ecology and sediment testing is needed. Such an approach reflects the strong linkage of ecological and ecotoxicological processes. Toxicants are transformed by biological activity; in some cases this alleviates toxicant stress, but in other cases degradation products are toxic as well. The risk of transformation to mutagenic products in the environment is indicated. The re-assessment of some of the classical ecotoxicological techniques is needed to adequately fulfil the needs of ecological recovery programs. To this purpose integration of ecotoxicological and ecological tools is needed.     

Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countries with more limited commitments. In the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.     

Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.     

Challenges and opportunities of power systems from smart homes to super-grids

The world’s power systems are facing a structural change including liberalization of markets and integration of renewable energy sources. This paper describes the challenges that lie ahead in this process and points out avenues for overcoming different problems at different scopes, ranging from individual homes to international super-grids. We apply energy system models at those different scopes and find a trade-off between technical and social complexity. Small-scale systems would require technological breakthroughs, especially for storage, but individual agents can and do already start to build and operate such systems. In contrast, large-scale systems could potentially be more efficient from a techno-economic point of view. However, new political frameworks are required that enable long-term cooperation among sovereign entities through mutual trust. Which scope first achieves its breakthrough is not clear yet.     

湖泊富营养化模型的研究进展

湖泊的富营养化是全球普遍关注的环境问题之一.湖泊的富营养化模型是防治、修复和治理湖泊富营养化的重要决策工具.按研究的侧重点不同,将湖泊富营养化模型分为简单回归模型、水质模型、生态模型和生态-水动力水质模型,并分别回顾了四类模型的研究进展.最后指出湖泊富营养化模型的发展趋势,强调不确定理论、3S技术、耦合模型是今后湖泊富营养化模型研究的重点,应在此基础上建立通用的模拟、预测、评价和优化模型,为湖泊富营养化管理提供科学依据.     

湖泊富营养化模型的研究进展

湖泊的富营养化是全球普遍关注的环境问题之一.湖泊的富营养化模型是防治、修复和治理湖泊富营养化的重要决策工具.按研究的侧重点不同,将湖泊富营养化模型分为简单回归模型、水质模型、生态模型和生态-水动力水质模型,并分别回顾了四类模型的研究进展.最后指出湖泊富营养化模型的发展趋势,强调不确定理论、3S技术、耦合模型是今后湖泊富营养化模型研究的重点,应在此基础上建立通用的模拟、预测、评价和优化模型,为湖泊富营养化管理提供科学依据.     

工艺条件对鸟粪石法回收磷耗碱量的影响及其理论计算

通过分析磷回收过程中存在的各种耗碱因素,推导出耗碱量的理论计算公式,计算出了不同工艺条件下的理论耗碱量,并与小型连续搅拌反应-沉淀磷回收过程的实验实测值进行比较。结果表明,耗碱量的理论计算值与实验测定值的平均相对误差为13.20%,说明计算方法可用于耗碱量的工程估算;耗碱量随出水pH值的增大而急剧增加,随废水中氨氮含量和磷初始浓度的增加都近似于线性增加,但随镁磷比的增加基本不变。因此,从节约废水处理成本的角度看,磷回收过程中pH值应控制在9.2-9.3,氮磷比控制在3.0-5.0,镁磷比控制在1.1-1.2为佳。磷回收过程的药剂消耗量与废水中磷的浓度和工艺条件有关,以磷初始浓度为124 mg/L,N/Mg/P=5∶1.2∶1,出水pH值为9.20的回收过程为例,处理毎吨废水需消耗片碱0.5313 kg,成本约为1.328元,需消耗氯化镁（含六个结晶水）0.9758 kg,成本约为0.634元。因此,处理每吨废水的药剂成本约为1.962元,其中耗碱约占67.7%。     

Integrated assessment: rhetoric of models and perceptions of world futures

Integrated assessment of climate change implies the construction of models describing the very complex interactions among economic processes, geochemical or geophysical phenomena and ecological processes at the Earth level. This attempt is unprecedented in the history of science. To build models of a unique, very large and extremely complex object, the whole Earth, supposes the definition of concepts allowing the comparison of these models through their structures and not only comparisons of their numerical results. The purpose of this paper is to give some preliminary elements of such a structural comparison.