Application of a stochastic, Weibull probability generator for replacing missing data on ambient concentrations of gaseous pollutants

A stochastic, three-parameter, Weibull frequency distribution, probability generator was tested by using theoretical data. Subsequently, it was applied to replace missing values of hourly atmospheric concentrations of trace gases that were continuously monitored at three study sites, for 2 years. The results were highly accurate and realistic. The cumulative means and the medians calculated by the Weibull method were intermediate between corresponding values calculated by uniform substitution of missing values with 'zero' or with half of the minimum detection limit of the appropriate measurement instrument used. Furthermore, the Weibull method allowed the replacement of as many as 100 missing values on either side of a measured data sub-set, without altering the overall characteristics of the true frequency distribution of the entire data set.     

Predation risk,food deprivation and non-random mating by size in the stream water strider,Aquarius remigis

Summary Non-random mating by size (NRMS) plays a central role in the study of sexual selection and the evolution of mating systems. Theory suggests that NRMS should be influenced by conflicting demands (e.g., predation risk, hunger); few experimental studies, however, have addressed these effects. We used a factorial experiment to examine the influence of predatory green sunfish and food deprivation on NRMS in male and female stream water striders, Aquarius remigis. As predicted by theory, food deprivation decreased the large-male mating advantage. The influence of predation risk, however, went against existing theory; that is, risk increased the large male mating advantage. The degree of large-male mating advantage was negatively related to a measure of the rate of male harassment of females. A behavioral mechanism that can explain these patterns emphasizes the contrasting effects of different competing demands on male harassment rates, female resistance and the role of male size in overcoming female resistance. Females usually resist male mating attempts. Successful mating occurs when males overcome female resistance. If harassment rates (of females by males) are low, larger males have a mating advantage over smaller males perhaps because females resist heavily and thus only larger males can overcome female resistance. If, however, male harassment rates are very high, female resistance might be swamped; mating should then be more random with respect to male size. Food deprivation increases gerrid activity and thus increases harassment rates which should then reduce NRMS. In contrast, risk decreases gerrid activity, thus decreasing harassment rates and increasing NRMS. Females did not show significant NRMS. Females did, however, show a pattern of change in NRMS that is consistent with male choice for larger females. Correspondence to: A. Sih     

A multi-variate statistical model integrating passive sampler and meteorology data to predict the frequency distributions of hourly ambient ozone (O3) concentrations

A multi-variate, non-linear statistical model is described to simulate passive O3 sampler data to mimic the hourly frequency distributions of continuous measurements using climatologic O3 indicators and passive sampler measurements. The main meteorological parameters identified by the model were, air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed, although other parameters were also considered. Together, air temperature, relative humidity and passive sampler data by themselves could explain 62.5-67.5% (R(2)) of the corresponding variability of the continuously measured O3 data. The final correlation coefficients (r) between the predicted hourly O3 concentrations from the passive sampler data and the true, continuous measurements were 0.819-0.854, with an accuracy of 92-94% for the predictive capability. With the addition of soil moisture data, the model can lead to the first order approximation of atmospheric O3 flux and plant stomatal uptake. Additionally, if such data are coupled to multi-point plant response measurements, meaningful cause-effect relationships can be derived in the future.     

Ambient ozone (O3) in three Class I wilderness areas in the northeastern USA: measurements with Ogawa passive samplers

Ambient ozone (O(3)) was measured in two Class I wilderness areas, one within the White Mountain National Forest in north central New Hampshire (NH) and one within the Green Mountain National Forest in southwestern Vermont (VT), for six weeks between 5 July and 16 August 1994, using Ogawa passive nitrite-coated filter samplers and a one week exposure period each time. Results for 7-day mean ambient O(3) concentrations from the passive samplers were compared to results from a co-located continuous ultraviolet photometric O(3) analyzer both in NH and VT. Although the size of the data set was small, agreement through simple linear regression between mean 7-day O(3) concentrations determined by the continuous monitors, and those obtained from the passive samplers was generally very good (adjusted R(2) = 0.759; p = 0.0003). Overall, excluding the one outlier value, any observed differences in the results obtained by the two methods when comparing co-located passive samplers to the continuous monitor within a given study location, appeared to be solely due to experimental error.     

Atmosphere and agriculture in the new millennium

Effects of changing climate (CO(2), O(3), aerosols, UV-B radiation, temperature and precipitation) on crops are predominantly based on univariate studies. Limited bivariate studies suggest rising CO(2) levels would be beneficial to crops but may be offset by adverse O(3) effects. Elevated UV-B and ambient crop yields are difficult to project due also to limited research. Climate warming concerns, using average daily temperatures may be less important than the effects of rising nocturnal temperatures on crop growth. Traditional approaches of examining air pollutant-induced visible foliar injury or the effects of single air pollutants on crop productivity need to be redirected to the analysis of integrated holistic systems. In that context, present and future agriculture in India and the USA are compared.     

The Greenhouse effect: impacts of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation, carbon dioxide (CO2), and ozone (O3) on vegetation

There is a fast growing and an extremely serious international scientific, public and political concern regarding man's influence on the global climate. The decrease in stratospheric ozone (O3) and the consequent possible increase in ultraviolet-B (UV-B) is a critical issue. In addition, tropospheric concentrations of 'greenhouse gases' such as carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) are increasing. These phenomena, coupled with man's use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), chlorocarbons (CCs), and organo-bromines (OBs) are considered to result in the modification of the earth's O3 column and altered interactions between the stratosphere and the troposphere. A result of such interactions could be the global warming. As opposed to these processes, tropospheric O3 concentrations appear to be increasing in some parts of the world (e.g. North America). Such tropospheric increases in O3 and particulate matter may offset any predicted increases in UV-B at those locations. Presently most general circulation models (GCMs) used to predict climate change are one- or two-dimensional models. Application of satisfactory three-dimensional models is limited by the available computer power. Recent studies on radiative cloud forcing show that clouds may have an excess cooling effect to compensate for a doubling of global CO2 concentrations. There is a great deal of geographic patchiness or variability in climate. Use of global level average values fails to account for this variability. For example, in North America: 1. there may be a decrease in the stratospheric O3 column (1-3%); however, there appears to be an increase in tropospheric O3 concentrations (1-2%/year) to compensate up to 20-30% loss in the total O3 column; 2. there appears to be an increase in tropospheric CO2, N2O and CH4 at the rate of roughly 0.8%, 0.3% and 1-2%, respectively, per year; 3. there is a decrease in erythemal UV-B; and 4. there is a cooling of tropospheric air temperature due to radiative cloud forcing. The effects of UV-B, CO2 and O3 on plants have been studied under growth chamber, greenhouse and field conditions. Few studies, if any, have examined the joint effects of more than one variable on plant response. There are methodological problems associated with many of these experiments. Thus, while results obtained from these studies can assist in our understanding, they must be viewed with caution in the context of the real world and predictions into the future. Biomass responses of plants to enhanced UV-B can be negative (adverse effect); positive (stimulatory effect) or no effect (tolerant). Sensitivity rankings have been developed for both crop and tree species. However, such rankings for UV-B do not consider dose-response curves. There are inconsistencies between the results obtained under controlled conditions versus field observations. Some of these inconsistencies appear due to the differences in responses between cultivars and varieties of a given plant species; and differences in the experimental methodology and protocol used. Nevertheless, based on the available literature, listings of sensitive crop and native plant species to UV-B are provided. Historically, plant biologists have studied the effects of CO2 on plants for many decades. Experiments have been performed under growth chamber, greenhouse and field conditions. Evidence is presented for various plant species in the form of relative yield increases due to CO2 enrichment. Sensitivity rankings (biomass response) are agein provided for crops and native plant species. However, most publications on the numerical analysis of cause-effect relationships do not consider sensitivity analysis of the mode used. Ozone is considered to be the most phytotoxic regional scale air pollutant. In the pre-occupation of loss in the O3 column, any increases in tropospheric O3 concentrations may be undermined relative to vegetation effects. As with the other stress factors, the effects of O3 have been studied both under controlled and field conditions. Thboth under controlled and field conditions. The numerical explanation of cause-effect relationships of O3 is a much debated subject at the present time. Much of the controversy is directed toward the definition of the highly stochastic, O3 exposure dynamics in time and space. Nevertheless, sensitivity rankings (biomass response) are provided for crops and native vegetation. The joint effects of UV-B, CO2 and O3 are poorly understood. Based on the literature of plant response to individual stress factors and chemical and physical climatology of North America, we conclude that nine different crops may be sensitive to the joint effects: three grain and six vegetable crops (sorghum, oat, rice, pea, bean, potato, lettuce, cucumber and tomato). In North America, we consider Ponderosa and loblolly pines as vulnerable among tree species. This conclusion should be moderated by the fact that there are few, if any, data on hardwood species. In conclusion there is much concern for global climate change and its possible effects on vegetation. While this is necessary, such a concern and any predictions must be tempered by the lack of sufficient knowledge. Experiments must be designed on an integrated and realistic basis to answer the question more definitively. This would require very close co-operation and communication among scientists from multiple disciplines. Decision makers must realize this need.     

The Hohenheim long-term experiment: a North American perspective

The Hohenheim experiment represents a five year multi-disciplinary study of tree sapling responses to O(3), SO(2) and simulated acidic rain singly or in combination in modified open-top chambers. There are no comparable studies in North America which have been brought to completion at the present time. However, many of the results obtained in the Hohenheim study can be examined in the context of North American research. Independent of the differences in the methodology, the experimental conditions and the tree species used, many results are quite comparable between the Hohenheim study and the findings of North American research. However, since comparisons were made with studies in chambers of various types, caution must be used in extrapolating the results in addressing questions in the chamberless ambient conditions.     

Sampling and physico-chemical analysis of precipitation: a review

Wet deposition is one of two processes governing the transfer of beneficial and toxic chemicals from the atmosphere on to surfaces. Since the early 1970s, numerous investigators have sampled and analyzed precipitation for their chemical constituents, in the context of "acidic rain" and related atmospheric processes. Since then, significant advances have been made in our understanding of how to sample rain, cloud and fog water to preserve their physico-chemical integrity prior to analyses. Since the 1970s large-scale precipitation sampling networks have been in operation to broadly address regional and multi-regional issues. However, in examining the results from such efforts at a site-specific level, concerns have been raised about the accuracy and precision of the information gathered. There is mounting evidence to demonstrate the instability of precipitation samples (e.g. with N species) that have been subjected to prolonged ambient or field conditions. At the present time precipitation sampling procedures allow unrefrigerated or refrigerated collection of wet deposition from individual events, sequential fractions within events, in situ continuous chemical analyses in the field and even sampling of single or individual rain, cloud and fog droplets. Similarly analytical procedures of precipitation composition have advanced from time-consuming methods to rapid and simultaneous analyses of major anions and cations, from bulk samples to single droplets. For example, analytical techniques have evolved from colorimetry to ion chromatography to capillary electrophoresis. Overall, these advances allow a better understanding of heterogeneous reactions and atmospheric pollutant scavenging processes by precipitation. In addition, from an environmental perspective, these advances allow better quantification of semi-labile (e.g. NH4+, frequently its deposition values are underestimated) or labile species [e.g. S (IV)] in precipitation and measurements of toxic chemicals such as Hg and PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls). Similarly, methods now exist for source-receptor studies, using for example, the characterization of reduced elemental states and/or the use of stable isotopes in precipitation as tracers. Future studies on the relationship between atmospheric deposition and environmental impacts must exploit these advances. This review provides a comprehensive and comparative treatment of the state of the art sampling methods of precipitation and its physico-chemical analysis.     

Ambient ozone (O3) and adverse crop response: a unified view of cause and effect

This paper presents a cohesive view of the dynamics of ambient O(3) exposure and adverse crop response relationships, coupling the properties of photochemical O(3) production, flux of O(3) from the atmosphere into crop canopies and the crop response per se. The results from two independent approaches ((a) statistical and (b) micrometeorological) were analyzed for understanding cause-effect relationships of the foliar injury responses of tobacco cv Bel-W3 to the exposure dynamics of ambient O(3) concentrations. Similarly, other results from two independent approaches were analyzed in: (1) establishing a micrometeorological relationship between hourly ambient O(3) concentrations and their vertical flux from the air into a natural grassland canopy; and (2) establishing a statistical relationship between hourly ambient O(3) concentrations in long-term, chronic exposures and crop yield reductions. Independent of the approach used, atmospheric conditions appeared to be most conducive and the crop response appeared to be best explained statistically by the cumulative frequency of hourly ambient O(3) concentrations between 50 ppb and 90 ppb (100 and 180 microg m(-3)). In general, this concentration range represents intermediate or moderately enhanced hourly O(3) values in a polluted environment. Further, the diurnal occurrence of this concentration range (often approximately between 0900 and 1600 h in a polluted, agricultural environment) coincided with the optimal CO(2) flux from the atmosphere into the crop canopy, thus high uptake. The frequency of occurrence of hourly O(3) concentrations > 90 ppb (180 microg m(-3)) appeared to be of little importance and such concentrations in general appeared to occur during atmospheric conditions which did not facilitate optimal vertical flux into the crop canopy, thus low uptake. Alternatively, when > 90 ppb (180 microg m(-3)) O(3) concentrations occurred during the 0900-1600 h window, their frequency of occurrence was low in comparison to the 50-90 ppb (100-180 microg m(-3)) range. Based on the overall results, we conclude that if the cumulative frequency of hourly ambient O(3) concentrations between 50-62 ppb (100-124 microg m(-3)) occurred during 53% of the growing season and the corresponding cumulative frequency of hourly O(3) concentrations between 50-74 ppb (100-148 microg m(-3)) occurred during 71% of the growing season, then yield reductions in sensitive crops could be expected, if other factors supporting growth, such as adequate soil moisture are not limiting.