VERIFICATION AND APPLICATION OF REGIONAL EQUATIONS FOR THE STORAGE FUNCTION RUNOFF MODEL1

The storage function model is a nonlinear rainfall-runoff model that has been developed for and applied to flood runoff analysis in Japan. This paper extends the model applicability by developing practical equations for estimating model parameters which are appropriate on a regional basis, i.e., so-called regional equations. Previously, the parameters were computed from historical data for a specific basin or from relationships that do not account for land use and topography. To develop the regionalized equations, model parameters were identified for 91 flood events from 22 watersheds in Japan by applying a mathematical optimization technique. Results from 39 of these events were statistically compared and regional relationships were determined as a function of land use, basin area and rainfall intensity. The utility of the estimated equations were tested by computing runoff hydrographs for lumped basins. The estimated parameters were also applied in a distributed watershed model formulation. Both applications showed acceptable results that validate the use of the regionalized relationships.     

ANALYZING URBANIZATION IMPACTS ON PENNSYLVANIA FLOOD PEAKS1

ABSTRACT: The impact of man made change on the hydrology of developing watersheds is frequently measured in terms of the ratio: flood peak after development to flood peak before development over a range of return periods. However, the analysis of urbanization effects on flood frequency presents a vexing problem because of a general lack of flood data in urban areas and also because of nonstationarity in the development process. Clearly, the flood peak ratio depends on the impervious fraction and percent of basin sewered and these factors have been taken into account in recent urban flood peak models. In genral, these models are developed either by: (1) split sample analysis of available annual flood data, or (2) by computer simulation using mathematical watershed models capable of representing man made changes. The present paper discusses the results of work in progress to characterize the impact of urbanization on small developing watersheds in Pennsylvania.     

UNIT HYDROGRAPHS FOR DEVELOPING DESIGN FLOOD HYDROGRAPHS1

ABSTRACT: In Illinois, a procedure has been developed to derive unit hydrographs for generating 100-year and probable maximum flood hydrographs, on the basis of 11 parameters that define the hydrograph shape very well. Regional regressions of these parameters with basin factors show very high correlation. Thus satisfactory values of parameters can be determined for ungaged areas or those with a few years' record. The nonlinearity in unit hydrographs derived from usual floods is largely attributed to mixing within-channel and overbank-flow flood events. To minimize the effects of nonlinearity and to derive unit hydrographa suitable for calculating spillway design floods, use of the proposed method of developing such hydrographs is recommended.     

THE UNIT HYDROGRAPH: A SATISFACTORY MODEL OF WATERSHED RESPONSE?1

ABSTRACT: Some 96 flood events larger than the mean annual flood from 16 watersheds in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania were used to derive unit hydrographs by the least-squares method. Analyses of the unit hydrographs were conducted to ascertain their response to watershed parameters, climatic and storm variables and locations within different hydrologic regions. Significant differences both within and among watersheds led to the formulation and testing of hypotheses stating that differences among watersheds are caused by physiographic differences while differences within watersheds result from climatic and storm differences. The analysis showed, that while many watersheds parameters strongly influence the shape of the unit hydrograph, only the storm variables duration and volume of precipitation excess produce significant differences. Seasonal differences were apparent but not proven statistically significant.     

PREDICTION OF PEAK FLOWS ON SMALL WATERSHEDS IN OREGON FOR USE IN CULVERT DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Using data from 80 Oregon watersheds that ranged in size from 0.54 km² to 27.45 km², equations were developed to predict peak flows for use in culvert design on forest roads. Oregon was divided into six physiographic regions based on previous studies of flood frequency. In each region, data on annual peak flow from gaging stations with more than 20 years of record were analyzed using four flood frequency distributions: type 1 extremal, two parameter-log normal, three parameter-log normal, and log-Pearson type III. The log-Pearson type III distribution was found to be suitable for use in all regions of the State, based on the chi-square goodness-of-fit-test. Flood magnitudes having recurrence intervals of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years were related to physical and climatic characteristics of drainage basins by multiple regression. Drainage basin size was the most important variable in explaining the variation of flood peaks in all regions. Mean basin elevation and mean annual precipitation were also significantly related to flood peaks in two regions of western Oregon. The standard error of the estimate for the regression relationships ranged from 26 to 84 percent.     

PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING FOR POLDER SYSTEM DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: An approach is developed for incorporating the uncertainty of parameters for estimating runoff in the design of polder systems in ungaged watersheds. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to derive a set of realizations of streamflow hydrographs for a given design rainstorm using the U. S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) unit hydrograph model. The inverse of the SCS curve number, which is a function of the antecedent runoff condition in the SCS model, is the random input in the Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo realizations of streamfiow hydrographs are used to simulate the performance of a polder flood protection system. From this simulation the probability of occurrence of flood levels for a particular hydraulic design may be used to evaluate its effectiveness. This approach is demonstrated for the Pluit Polder flood protection system for the City of Jakarta, Indonesia. While the results of the application indicate that uncertainty in the antecedent runoff condition is important, the effects of uncertainty in rainfall data, in additional runoff parameters, such as time to peak, in the hydraulic design, and in the rainfall-runoff model selected should also be considered. Although, the SCS model is limited to agricultural conditions, the approach presented herein may be applied to other flood control systems if appropriate storm runoff models are selected.     

AN ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS OF PEAK-VOLUME RELATIONS AND STANDARDIZATION PROCEDURES1

ABSTRACT: Much has been written about the linear relationship in log space between the runoff volume of a hydrograph and the peak discharge. Three versions of this relation (an original and two standardizations) have been presented and recommended by various authors. In this paper, the standardized equations are compared to the original relationship and the behavior of the coefficient of determination (r²) in each case is discussed. It is shown that the r² of the standardized equations is increased or decreased relative to that of the original relation based upon the magnitude of the original slope. Further implications of these relationships are discussed and demonstrated using a data base of 90 watersheds and over 1,200 separate flood hydrographs.     

AN EVALUATION OF FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATES BASED ON RAINFALL/RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation of flood frequency estimates simulated from a rainfall/runoff model is based on (1) computation of the equivalent years of record for regional estimating equations based on 50 small stream sites in Oklahoma and (2) computation of the bias for synthetic flood estimates as compared to observed estimates at 97 small stream sites with at least 20 years of record in eight eastern states. Because of the high intercorrelation of synthetic flood estimates between watersheds, little or no regional (spatial) information may be added to the network as a result of the modeling activity. The equivalent years of record for the regional estimating equations based totally on synthetic flood discharges is shown to be considerably less than the length of rainfall record used to simulate the runoff. Furthermore, the flood estimates from the rainfall/runoff model consistently underestimate the flood discharges based on observed record, particularly for the larger floods. Depending on the way bias is computed, the synthetic estimate of the 100-year flood discharge varies from 11 to 29 percent less than the value based on observed record. In addition, the correlation between observed and synthetic flood frequency estimates at the same site is also investigated. The degree of correlation between these estimates appears to vary with recurrence interval. Unless the correlation between these two estimates is known, it is not possible to compute a weighted estimate with minimum variance.     

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Twenty-two gaging stations were selected for developing a regional flood frequency curve for small (area less than 2 square miles) watersheds in southern Illinois. Five probability functions were compared, and the extreme value type I function was selected to develop the regional flood curve. The curve was generated with the index flood method and also another empirical method that related the function parameters to the watershed area. Estimated peak discharges with various return periods were compared with the results obtained from multiple regression analysis.     

CALIBRATION OF SNYDER COEFFICIENTS FOR PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT Unit hydrograph theory is one of the most widely used techniques to predict surface runoff. The present study is concerned with the Snyder unit hydrograph and the calibration of the Snyder coefficients for Pennsylvania. Twenty-seven study basins were selected, located randomly across the state. With the rainfall and runoff recorded for several events for each basin (more than 500 events were analyzed) unit hydrographs were calculated and the Snyder coefficients determined. A map of the coefficients was drawn to illustrate the variability in the coefficients and two equations using multiple regression theory were developed. The unexplained variability of the coefficients suggests that upper and lower bounds on the peak flow might be placed on storm hydrographs developed for ungaged watersheds.     

FLOOD-RUNOFF FORECASTING WITH HEC1F1

HEC1F is a computer program for making short- to medium-term forecasts of uncontrolled flood runoff. The program employs unit hydrographs and hydrologic routing to simulate runoff from a subdivided basin. Estimates of future rainfall can be accommodated. Runoff parameters for gaged headwater subbasins can be estimated (optimized) in real time. Blending of calculated with observed hydrographs can be performed. HEC1F is a component of an on-line software system that includes capability for data acquisition and processing, precipitation analysis, streamflow forecasting, reservoir system analysis, and graphical display of data and simulation results. The conceptual framework for HEC1F is described, and application of the program is illustrated.     

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF THREE URBAN RUNOFF MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Three urban runoff models, namely, the Road Research Laboratory Model (RRLM), the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and the University of Cincinnati Urban Runoff Model (UCURM), were examined by comparing the model simulated hydrographs with the hydrographs measured on several instrumented urban watersheds. This comparison was done for the hydrograph peak points as well as for the entire hydrographs using such statistical measures as the correlation coefficient, the special correlation coefficient and the integral square error. The results of the study indicated that, when applying the three selected non-calibrated models on small urban catchments, the SWM model performed marginally better than the RRL model and both these models were more accurate than the UCUR model. On larger watersheds, the comparisons between the SWM model and the other two models would be likely even more favourable for the SWM model, because it has the most advanced flow routing scheme among the studied models.     

A DISTRIBUTED DYNAMIC WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A distributed watershed model was developed to mathematically simulate overland and channel flow for a single-event storm. The modeled watersheds in the study were subdivided into rectangular grid elements. All hydrologically significant parameters, such as land slope, rainfall and precipitation excess, were assumed to be uniform within each element. The Green-Ampt method was adopted to generate precipitation excess for each element during the simulation period. A two-dimensional diffusion wave model was used for overland flow routing and an iterative Alternative Direction Implicit scheme was used to solve the simultaneous overland flow equations. Once the overland flow became inflow to the channel, a one-dimensional dynamic wave flood routing technique, based on a four-point, implicit, non-linear finite difference solution of the St. Venant equation of unsteady flow, was applied. A limited number of comparisons were made between simulated and observed hydrographs for areas of about one square mile. Given the appropriate parameters, the model was able to accurately simulate runoff for single-event storms. This paper describes a distributed watershed model developed to simulate overland and channel flow. Comparisons were made between simulated and observed hydrographs for three watersheds. The model was able to accurately simulate the runoff for single-event storms using 61-m by 61-m (200 ft by 200 ft) watershed grid elements.     

Flood Risk Reduction from Agricultural Best Management Practices

Best management practices (BMPs) play an important role in improving impaired water quality from conventional row crop agriculture. In addition to reducing nutrient and sediment loads, BMPs such as fertilizer management, reduced tillage, and cover crops could alter the hydrology of agricultural systems and reduce surface water runoff. While attention is devoted to the water quality benefits of BMPs, the potential co‐benefits of flood loss reduction are often overlooked. This study quantifies the effects of selected commonly applied BMPs on expected flood loss to agricultural and urban areas in four Iowa watersheds. The analysis combines a watershed hydrologic model, hydraulic model outputs, and a loss estimation model to determine relationships between hydrologic changes from BMP implementations and annual economic flood loss. The results indicate a modest reduction in peak discharge and economic loss, although loss reduction is substantial when urban centers or other high‐value assets are located downstream in the watershed. Among the BMPs, wetlands, and cover crops reduce losses the most. The research demonstrates that watershed‐scale implementation of agricultural BMPs could provide benefits of flood loss reduction in addition to water quality improvements.     

ESTIMATING PEAK RUNOFF FROM FIELD-SIZE WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: A simple nonlinear runoff model was developed and tested for use on field-size agricultural watersheds. A Wooding idealization of the watershed topography was used. Kinematic wave equations were used with an assumed, instead of computed, overland flow, watersurface profile in order to simplify the numerical computations. The approach was used to synthesize runoff hydrographs for an agricultural watershed in Iowa. The accuracy of the synthesized hydro-graphs was judged by comparing the estimated and observed peak discharges and by comparing estimated and observed stages at the measuring weir. The mean errors were 0.01 in/hr and 0.05 ft, respectively. A qualitative comparison was also made with a detailed kinematic wave study. The largest variability occurred during the seedbed period for both models, which was attributed to changes in surface roughness. The roughness was more constant and the results more consistent for the canopy and ground residue periods.     

FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH A FLAT,COMPLEX FLOODPLAIN USING A ONE-DIMENSIONAL UNSTEADY FLOW COMPUTER PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: The routing of flood waves through the Central Basin of the Passaic River in New Jersey is complex because of flat gradients and flow reversals. The one-dimensional unsteady flow program DWOPER, developed by the National Weather Service, was used to simulate flood wave movement through the Basin. A historical event was used for calibration and two synthetic events were simulated. Boundary conditions consisted of discharge hydrographs at inflow points to the study area, local flow hydrographs at interior points, and a stage discharge relation for flow over the crest of a diversion dam at the basin outlet. Manning's n values were adjusted based on stage and discharge data for the historical event; however, verification data were not available for events comparable in magnitude to the synthetic events. Aspects of the investigation reported include techniques for characterizing the flow system, model calibration, techniques for representing a tunnel diversion, and simulation results.     

ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR STORMWATER DETENTION1

ABSTRACT: In a simulation experiment, stormwater flows are partially diverted, at various levels, to a detention basin in order to compare the recombined (i.e., undiverted flows and basin discharges) hydrograph to the response of the traditional, in-line design. The use of off-line detention basins is shown to be an effective technique for reducing peak flows from developed watersheds to pre-development levels with lower storage requirements. In addition, the discharge hydrographs produced by off-line detention are significantly different from those produced by the traditional design and may be more suited to certain stormwater management situations.     

USING FIELD SCALE MODELS TO PREDICT PEAK FLOWS ON AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS1

The goal of this study was to develop a methodology for generating storm hydrographs at a watershed scale based on daily runoff estimates from a field scale model. The methodology was evaluated on a small agricultural watershed using the ADAPT field scale process model. A comparison of observed and predicted peak flows for 11 of the largest events that occurred in a three year period gave r² values of 0.84, 0.82, and 0.81 when the watershed was subdivided into 1, 5, and 10 sub watersheds. However, all other statistical measures improved when the watershed was subdivided into at least five sub watersheds. Guidelines need to be developed on the use of the procedure but it first needs to be evaluated on several watersheds that exhibit a range in sizes, land uses, slopes, and soil properties.     

Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

DUAL URBAN AND RURAL HYDROGRAPH SIGNALS IN THREE SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Many studies can be found in the literature pertaining to the effects of urbanization on surface runoff in small watersheds and the hydrologic response of undeveloped watersheds. However, an extensive literature review yielded few published studies that illustrate differing hydrologic responses from multiple source areas within a watershed. The concepts discussed here are not new, but the methods used provide a unique, basic procedure for investigating stormwater hydrology in topographically diverse basins. Six storm hydrographs from three small central Pennsylvania watersheds were analyzed for this paper; five are presented. Two important conclusions are deduced from this investigation. First, in all cases we found two distinct peaks in stream discharge, each representing different contributing areas to direct discharge with greatly differing curve numbers and lags representative of urban and rural source regions. Second, the direct discharge represents only a small fraction of the total drainage area with the urban peak becoming increasingly important with respect to the rural peak with the amount of urbanization and as the magnitude of the rain event decreases.