ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING GROUNDWATER QUALITY STANDARDS1

ABSTRACT: A model for estimating the probability of exceeding groundwater quality standards at environmental receptors based on a simple contaminant transport model is described. The model is intended for locations where knowledge about site-specific hydrogeologic conditions is limited. An efficient implementation methodology using numerical Monte Carlo simulation is presented. The uncertainty in the contaminant transport system due to uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity is directly calculated in the Monte Carlo simulations. Numerous variations of the deterministic parameters of the model provide an indication of the change in exceedance probability with change in parameter value. The results of these variations for a generic example are presented in a concise graphical form which provides insight into the topology of the exceedance probability surface. This surface can be used to assess the impact of the various parameters on exceedance probability.     

INTERDISCIPLINARY MODELING IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SALINITY PROBLEMS OF THE SAFFORD VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: A groundwater quality change of +0.13 millimhos electrical conductivity was documented between 1940 and 1 972 in the Safford Valley. The change is attributable to four principal mechanisms: pumping-encouraged saline artesian aquifer leakage, natural recharge of the water table aquifer by saline waters, leaching of agricultural waters into the aquifer and the lateral flow of groundwater through saline lacustrine beds. A hydrologic study of the area has shown the first of these mechanisms to be predominant. Salinity modeling has shown three regions of salinity change, and salinity increase projections for each are determined. An economic analysis and an economic model are then combined with the physical model, yielding information as to when certain economic conditions are reached with respect to the salinity increase. This combined model shows that, based on projected salinity trends, cotton, the principal agricultural crop of the valley, will remain economical to cultivate for a significant time beyond the model's limit of prediction. Alfalfa, on the other hand, should go out of production in large areas of the valley by 1990, and not be under economical cultivation by 2040. A sociologic model, based on the cluster analysis of questionnaire data, shows an awareness of the salinity problems of the area but little concern over them. Interdisciplinary model based salinity control regulations are made.     

A SYSTEMS STUDY OF FUTURE GROUNDWATER DEVELOPMENT COSTS IN THE CHICAGO REGION1

The cost of developing groundwater resources in northeastern Illinois from 198cL2020 is estimated for the purpose of providing a basis for comparing alternative sources. Demands for each township in the study area are estimated at 10-year increments and are satisfied, where the supply is sufficient, in such a way as to minimize the cost subject to constraints on supply. Sources of water are two shallow aquifers with known potential yields and a series of deep aquifers treated as a single unit and modeled on a digital computer. For each township the costs of wells, pumps, power and rehabilitation is estimated for each aquifer on a per million gallons of water per day basis. In addition the cost of groundwater treatment necessary to raise the quality to that of treated Lake Michigan water is considered. Raw water costs are found to vary from 2 to 14 cents per 1000 gallons depending upon the depth to the deep aquifer water. Treated water costs vary from 22 to 53 cents per 1000 gallons, the lower costs applying to the largest users because of the economy of scale. It is found that with proper distribution of pumpage there is sufficient water in storage in the deep aquifers to meet groundwater demands through 2020.     

A STUDY OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE CANBERRA AREA AND THE QUEANBEYAN RIVER WATERSHED (GOOGONG DAM CATCHMENT)1

Data provided by the Australian Commonwealth Bureaus of Meteorology and Mineral Resources are used in this water budget study of the Queanbeyan River watershed. Air and soil temperatures show close correlation from month to month during the five-year period. A close parallel also exists for the air temperature values and the seasonal variations in the Nett-Moisture (rainfall minus evaporation) plots. Ground-water levels appear to be influenced by drought periods and by under groundwater storage conditions such as “nick-points” in the sub-surface migration conditions. The groundwater levels were unusually high early in the drought year of 1964-65. The annual rainfall totals for 1962, 1963, and 1966 were all exceeded by the evaporation totals. In 1964 and in 1965 (the drought year) the evaporation total exceeded the rainfall total. The minimum annual water discharge values for the Queanbeyan River ranged from 4.9″ in 1963 to 1.4′ in 1965.     

Integrated environmental monitoring and simulation system for use as a management decision support tool in urban areas

Leachates are generated as a result of water or other liquid passing through waste at a landfill site. These contaminated liquids originate from a number of sources, including the water produced during the decomposition of the waste as well as rain-fall which penetrates the waste and dissolves the material with which it comes into contact. The penetration of the rain-water depends on the nature of the landfill (e.g. surface characteristics, type and quantity of vegetation, gradient of layers, etc). The uncontrolled infiltration of leachate into the vadose (unsaturated) zone and finally into the saturated zone (groundwater) is considered to be the most serious environmental impact of a landfill. In the present paper the water flow and the pollutant transport characteristics of the Ano Liosia Landfill site in Athens (Greece) were simulated by creating a model of groundwater flows and contaminant transport. A methodology for the model is presented. The model was then integrated into the Ecosim system which is a prototype funded by the EU, (Directorate General XIII: Telematics and Environment). This is an integrated environmental monitoring and modeling system, which supports the management of environmental planning in urban areas.     

REDUCING THE COST OF CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC-HYDRAULIC SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous hydrologic-hydraulic-water quality models is inhibited by their large computer run costs relative to cost incurred with discrete event models. The fixed recurrence interval transfer (FRIT) technique is a means of achieving substantial reductions in computer costs associated with continuous models while retaining their technical advantages. The FRIT technique is applicable where it is reasonable to assume that the recurrence interval of the response of a watershed to a causative meteorologic event is the same for both “before” and “after” conditions. Example applications of the FRIT technique to the hydrologic-hydraulic modeling of floodwater storage, land use changes, and channel modifications are presented to demonstrate the procedure, to suggest the expected accuracy, and to illustrate how computer run costs might be reduced by 99% or more. The FRIT technique is intended for preliminary assessment of the impact of alternative land use conditions and structural water control measures.     

WATER PROBLEMS AND DEVELOPMENTS OF THE PAST1

Present-day climatic conditions of the Earth were reached between 5,000 and 8,000 years ago. These are essentially the conditions under which the earliest civilizations arose. Ancient basic water problems were the same as those of today, and remarkable technologies for coping with these problems were developed. Few water technologies, except for water treatment, are modern creations. Dry farming began about 8000 B.C. Irrigation began about 5000 B.C. and became extensive by about 3500 B.C., principally in Mesopotamia, the Nile Valley of Egypt, and the Indus Valley of Pakistan. Ancient irrigators developed ingenious structures for obtaining groundwater without the use of wells or sweeps. One device, the Khanat (a kind of infiltration gallery), is still widely used in the Mediterranean area, southwest Asia and China. The khanat was invented during the First Millenium B.C. Ancient peoples also learned to collect surface runoff in areas of scanty precipitation and to use it for local groundwater recharge. The water was recovered from dug wells and used for domestic supply and stock watering. Damming of rivers began at least by the early part of the First Millenium B.C. in the Arabian Peninsula. Most early dams were for irrigation but some were also for city water supply. Many canals in various areas served the dual purposes of water supply and navigation. Soil and water salinity have been persistent problems throughout the history of irrigation and we still have not solved these problems. Irrigation practices were developed independently in the New World but much later than in the Old. North American Indians in some areas still follow the ancient practices. The chinampa system, still used in Mexico, is one of the most intensive methods of farming ever devised. Ancient peoples in the Old World also developed ingenious methods for conserving and increasing soil moisture and for retarding runoff and erosion. During the time of classical Greece and imperial Rome practical water engineering developed to a high degree. Water tunnels, aqueducts, canals, drainage ditches, and dams become commonplace. Even so, water supply and management came relatively late in Europe, where dependence had been largely on natural supply and distribution until the 19th Century.     

AN ENGINEERING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A PROGRAM FOR ARTIFICIAL GROUNDWATER RECHARGE1

This study describes and demonstrates two alternate methods for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of artificial groundwater recharge using percolation ponds. The first analysis considers the benefits to be the reduction of pumping lifts and land subsidence; the second considers benefits as the alternative costs of a comparable surface delivery system. Example computations are carried out for an existing artificial recharge program in Santa Clara Valley in California. A computer groundwater model is used to estimate both the average long term and the drought period effects of artificial recharge in the study area. For the example problem, the benefits of reduced average annual pumping lifts and reduced incremental subsidence are greater than the total costs of continuing the existing artificial recharge program. Benefits for reduced subsidence are strongly dependent on initial aquifer conditions. The second analysis compares the costs of continuing the artificial recharge program with the costs of a surface system which would achieve the same hydraulic effects. Results indicate that the costs of artificial recharge are considerably smaller than the alternative costs of an equivalent surface system. In evaluating a particular program, consideration should also be given to uncertainties in future supplies and demands for water as well as to the probability of extreme events such as droughts.     

NONLINEAR DUPUIT EQUATIONS FOR THE PHREATIC SURFACE OF A SEMI-INFINITE AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT. We present a new approach to the nonlinear equations for the phreatic surface of groundwater flow from or into a reservoir. The differential equation is converted into an equivalent integral equation, which is then solved by a method of iteration. We obtain exact results for both drawdown and infiltration, including the special case of groundwater penetration into dry soil.     

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX AS A MEASURE OF HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is perhaps the most widely used regional drought index. However, there is considerable ambiguity about its value as a measure of hydrologic drought. In this paper the PDSI for climatic divisions in New Jersey is compared to the occurrence within each climatic division of streamflows in their lower quartile for the month (streamflow index), and ground-water levels in their lower quartile for the month (ground-water index). These indices are found to have distinct properties. It is not uncommon for PDSI values to indicate “severe” or “extreme” drought at times when the streamflow or groundwater index is above its lower quartile at many stations within the climatic division. The PDSI values and groundwater index indicate more persistent subnormal conditions than the streamflow index for truncation levels yielding the same total duration of drought over a period. The ground-water index tends to indicate a later beginning to droughts and of the three indices is the most conservative indicator of a drought's end. Drought timing and duration properties for the ground-water index are found to be highly influenced by the average depth to water in the well. Overall, the three indices of drought can provide three very different characterizations of drought. In particular, the results indicate that considerable caution should be exercised in drawing conclusions about hydrologic drought from the PDSI.     

ESTIMATING ATRAZINE LEACHING IN THE MIDWEST1

Data from seven Management Systems Evaluation Areas (MSEA) were used to test the sensitivity of a leaching model, Pesticide Root Zone Model-2, to a variety of hydrologic settings in the Midwest. Atrazine leaching was simulated because it was prevalent in the MSEA studies and is frequently detected in the region's groundwater. Short-term simulations used site specific soil and chemical parameters. Generalized simulations used data avail. able from regional soil databases and standardized variables. Accurate short-term simulations were precluded by lack of antecedent atrazine concentrations in the soil profile and water, suggesting that simulations using data for less than five years underestimate atrazine leaching. The seven sites were ranked in order of atrazine detection frequency (concentration > 0.2 μg L^-1) in soil water at 2 m depth in simulations. The rank order of the sites based on long-term simulations were similar to the ranks of sites based on atrazine detection frequency from groundwater monitoring. Simulations with Map Unit Use File (MUUF) soils data were more highly correlated with ranks of observed atrazine detection frequencies than were short-term simulations using site-specific soil data. Simulations using the MIJUIF data for soil parameters were sufficiently similarity to observed atrazine detection to allow the credible use of regional soils data for simulating leaching with PRZM-2 in a variety of Midwest soil and hydrologic conditions. This is encouraging for regional modeling efforts because soil parameters are among the most critical for operating PRZM-2 and many other leaching models.     

THE DEPENDENCE OF THE RESIDUAL GRAVITY ON HYDRAULIC CONSTANTS IN GLACIAL DEPOSITS1

ABSTRACT: Buried glacial stream channels contain large and easily accessible groundwater resources. Gravity surveys have been frequently applied for their location. A gravity survey in the geohydrologically explored Wood River Valley Area of southern Rhode Island shows extreme lows of -2 mgals over channel depths of maximal 300 feet. Three gravity profiles were observed in east-west direction across a north-south striking stream channel. The bedrock depth increases rapidly towards the south from 130 to 300 feet. The gravity lows observed across each profile are not related to the bedrock depth but rather to the saturated thickness of the main quifer and its hydraulic transmissivity. Well logs indicate that the large change of bedrock depth is solely due to an increase of till of low permeability. The volume of the glacial outwash, which is the major groundwater resource, changes little underneath the three profiles. The gravity lows apear to be directly related to the density contrast between glacial outwash and till. The response to the hydraulically more pertinent units renews the interest in the gravity method as it may have a potential to estimate yields of hydrologically complex aquifers     

PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

THE LEGALIZATION OF GROUNDWATER STORAGE1

ABSTRACT: California's courts have recently recognized the existence of underground aquifer storage rights that permit public agencies to (1) store imported waters in aquifers; (2) prevent others from expropriating that water; and (3) recapture the stored water when it is needed. The article describes the two appellate decisions that represent the common-law development of aquifer storage rights. Each decision related to separate aquifers that were subject to separate types of groundwater management programs. One decision involved an aquifer under the southeastern San Francisco Bay area that was managed under statutory authority and is entitled, Niles Sand and Gravel Co. v. Alameda County Water District 37 C.A.3d 924 (1974); cert. denied 419 US 869. The other decision involved an aquifer under Southern California's San Fernando Valley that was managed under judicial authority and is entitled, City of Los Angeles v. City of San Fernando 14 Cal.3d 199 (1975). The two decisions provide separate, but complimentary, public interest rationales for aquifer storage rights: (1) to protect water supplies necessary for the overlying community; and (2) to increase water supply efficiencies by using natural underground reservoirs wherever practicable. The Article reviews the relationship of aquifer storage rights to conventional groundwater rights and indicates aspects of the storage right that may need additional development.     

SENSITIVITY OF GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELS TO VERTICAL VARIABILITY OF AQUIFER CONSTANTS1

ABSTRACT: The Ogallala aquifer in the Oklahoma Panhandle is in need of better management because of increased groundwater demand which has caused declines in static water levels at an alarming rate. A groundwater management computer model was developed for the Ogallala aquifer in the Texas Panhandle and treats the aquifer as a homogeneous system. In this study, the computer model has been modified in order to evaluate the effects of vertical layering on semi-static water level changes which occur during the dewatering of a single unconfined aquifer. The modified model was applied to a study area near Guymon, Oklahoma, using both the homogeneous and the multilayered cases. The aquifer is characterized by a saturated thickness of 400 feet. The accumulated drawdown values of the homogeneous and the multilayered cases demonstrate that an average difference of approximately 22% of the original saturated thickness occurs between the two cases before the base of the aquifer is encountered. Approximately 25% more time is required to dewater the layered aquifer. Thus, vertical variations of lithology in an aquifer such as the Ogallala should be considered when prediction is made relative to groundwater management.     

GEOCHEMICAL INTERPRETATIONS OF GROUNDWATER FLOW SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT. Interest in the geochemistry of groundwater is increasing owing to the great number of current projects involving underground liquid waste storage, artificial recharge of potable water, accidental contamination of groundwater bodies, sanitary landfills, and pollution monitoring. Geochemical techniques used to facilitate the understanding of a groundwater system range from extremely simple to those requiring sophisticated theories, equipment, and procedures. An interpretation of the simple trilinear diagram for samples collected from the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico provided evidence that the fresh-water body was only a few tens of meters thick and was underlain everywhere by an extensive body of salt water. A geochemical technique that has been used effectively to identify the source of salt water in coastal aquifers is measurement of the carbon-14 concentrations. Carbon-14 has been used in a regional carbonate aquifer to determine the velocity of groundwater movement, rates of chemical reactions, and distribution of hydraulic conductivity. The application of principles of irreversible thermodynamics to groundwater systems provides a basis for constructing models which permit prediction, over both time and space, of changes in head distribution and chemical character of the water resulting from imposed stresses on the system. In essence, proper application of irreversible thermodynamics combines the potential theory of Hubbert with principles of reversible chemical thermodynamics, such as solution of carbonate minerals, to describe and explain controlling chemical reactions and processes of groundwater systems.     

THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL GROUNDWATER CONSERVATION IN ACHIEVING ZERO OVERDRAFT IN ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: The elimination of groundwater overdraft was a key feature of the 1980 Arizona Groundwater Management Act. To achieve this goal, the Arizona Department of Water Resources identified several Active Management Areas and developed urban, industrial, and agricultural water conservation plans. This study examines the reductions in groundwater use through agricultural water conservation in the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA). Linear programming models are developed to analyze changes in groundwater use and net returns to agriculture over a 38-year period, 1990 to 2025, for farming areas in the Phoenix AMA. Results indicate that the agricultural conservation program provides only modest groundwater savings under a wide range of scenarios. The low level of savings is partly due to the current economically efficient use of water. Other policy measures such as retiring agricultural land may be necessary if the Phoenix AMA is to meet its overdraft reduction goals; even if urban water conservation goals are met.     

SIMULATION AND MAPPING OF SOIL-WATER CONDITIONS IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Soil-water conditions provide valuable insight into the hydrologic system in an area. A soil-water balance quantitatively summarizes soil-water conditions and is based on climatic, soil, and vegetation characteristics that vary spatially and temporally. Soil-water balances in the Great Plains of the central United States were simulated for 1951–1980. Results of the simulations were mean annual estimates of infiltration, runoff, actual evapotranspiration, potential recharge, and consumptive water and irrigation requirements at 152 climatic data stations. A method was developed using a geographic information system to integrate and map the simulation results on the basis of spatially variable climatic, soil, and vegetation characteristics. As an example, simulated mean annual potential recharge was mapped. Mean annual potential-recharge rates ranged from less than 0.5 inch in much of the north-central and southwestern Great Plains to more than 10 inches in parts of eastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas.     

THE EFFECTS OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT ON ESTUARINE ENVIRONMENTS1

ABSTRACT. The Texas Water Development Board, the principal water resource planning agency of the State, has been conducting extensive estuarine data collection activities and associated research to determine the required quantity and quality of fresh water inflows necessary to maintain various environmental conditions in Texas estuaries to preserve the estuarine ecosystems. These activities are a consequence of a statutory directive to the Board to make provisions in its State Water Plan for the effects of upstream water resource development on the associated estuaries. This paper reports on the results of the first phase of an extensive estuarine research project. The objectives of the research project are to (1) define the interrelationships between estuarine ecosystems and fresh water and nutrient inflows, and (2) develop and test quantitative simulation techniques which describe these relationships. In order to accomplish the first objective, physical and chemical water quality data and biological data on the estuarine ecosystems are being collected, compiled and analyzed. The second objective is being satisfied by the development of hydrodynamic and ecologic simulation models of the estuarine environment.     

THE CONCEPT OF SAFE GROUNDWATER YIELD IN COASTAL AQUIFERS1

The traditional factors used to determine safe yield of a groundwater basin (water supply, economics, water quality and water rights) do not include environmental effects. Because of the unique estuarine ecosystems associated with many coastal aquifers, environmental effects should be included in the determination of the safe yield of these aquifers. Controlled saline-water intrusion should be considered as a management tool in coastal aquifers. Artificial aquifer recharge using treated wastewater may be used to increase the safe yield of a coastal aquifer system while preserving the ecology of the coastal ecosystems.