Warfare, vulnerability and survival: a case from southwestern ethiopia

The Mursi are a small group of herders and cultivators living in the Lower Omo Valley of southwestern Ethiopia. Over the past 20 years they have suffered a disaster of classic proportions, involving drought, famine, migration and war. Measures taken to ensure the physical survival of people, and especially cattle, in the face of regular and expected attacks by their neighbours have made the economy of the Mursi more vulnerable to climatic uncertainty. A crude materialist explanation of warfare is not, therefore, supported by this case but it is clear also that warfare has played a key part in Mursi expansion northwards, over the past century, into the territory of the Bodi. Warfare, in this context, is a means of establishing and maintaining the separate political identities of neighbouring groups. The problem of survival does not present itself to the Mursi and their neighbours as a choice between political and physical survival: the only way they know of saving lives is to save their way of life.     

DROUGH TREND IN NORTH CHINA IN RECENT FIFTY YEARS

Inrecentseveralyears ,abnormaldroughtoccursinthepartnorthernofChina .Itex ertssomeinfluenceonChina’snationaleconomyandhasarousedwideattentionfromallwalksoflife .Muchresearchindrought wetindexhasbeendonebothathomeandabroad .Theresultcanbeclassifiedintotwocategories:first,droughtindexdirectlyisdefinedbyprecipitationorothermeteorologicalfactors;second ,droughtindexisidentifiedbycalculatinggainingandlos ingoflocalwaterinaccordancewithequationofwaterbalance ,andsomealsoconsidertheim pactofdrought…     

华北异常干旱气候事件及其对农业影响评估模式的研究

分析了华北地区旱灾的特点;采用降水量距平百分率和干旱指数分别确定了单站及区域于旱等级标准,并对近３７ａ这一地区各年主要干旱事件强度（等级）进行了评定,最后建立了干旱受灾面积和成灾面积评估模式。     

长江流域旱涝灾害的某些统计特征

本文着重分析了长江流域近40a来旱涝灾害的一些统计特征及其影响,指出了该流域旱涝灾害的演变趋势,以及人类活动对灾害加剧的主导作用。     

近500年京津冀地区最严重的干旱和社会对干旱的响应

本文确定了京津冀地区近500年米最严重的干旱时段。讨论了社会对干旱的响应。说明了干旱已是制约该区经济发展的重要因素。     

Famine, gold and guns: the suri of southwestern ethiopia, 1985-91

Over the past few years, the Suri have lived through a deep ecological and social crisis without substantial external aid from either the Ethiopian government or international aid agencies. They have experienced drought, cattle disease and an increasing level of violent conflict with their neighbours, leading to the severe disruption of their traditional agro-pastoral subsistence system and settlement pattern. Through migration, the exploitation of gold resources and investment in automatic weapons, however, they have managed virtually a full recovery of their economy and society.     

近年黑龙江省春旱频繁发生的研究分析

近年来,黑龙江省春旱连年发生,且具有持续时间长、范围广、受害程度严重的特点.利用30年来的气象资料分析了黑龙江省的降水特征,通过降水、春季湿润系数等分析了近几年的春旱情况,总结了近年春旱发生的特点、时空分布及其对农业生产的影响,为农业生产上减灾、抗灾提供科学的依据.     

近半世纪华北干旱化趋势研究

首先 ,提出了一种新的干湿指数 ,该指数的主要特点是它是相对于一地的水份需要量而言的 ,并且针对干旱的特点 ,考虑了前期降水对近期干旱现象的贡献。利用该指数 ,对我国华北近几十年来的干湿变化进行了讨论 ,发现近半个世纪以来 ,华北的干旱化趋势是十分明显的。其次 ,对华北干旱化的季节结构和周期性变化特点进行了研究 ,得出了一些有意义的结论。最后 ,讨论了近年来华北的连续干旱现象 ,指出近两年来的连续干旱是近 5 0年来最为严重的 ,并且到目前为止仍没有明显的结束趋势 ,值得我们进一步关注。     

Indigenous responses to drought in sub-Saharan Africa*

Drought is a frequent occurrence in contemporary sub-Saharan Africa, and the existence of periodic drought can be documented over hundreds of years. As a consequence of the routine rainfall shortages that affect them, agricultural and pastoral societies have developed a number of social institutions and mechanisms for bridging temporary food production shortfalls caused by drought. Drawing on the literature and field data from southeastern Kenya, this paper discusses a number of regular indigenous responses to short-term drought in sub-Saharan Africa. Changes in these patterns in the present day are also discussed. It is concluded that market-based responses are now the most important strategies, but that traditional institutions remain significant and contribute to the viability of drought-affected societies.     

干旱定义述评

本文列举了干旱的几种定义,分析了它们之间的联系。认为干旱的各种定义各有侧重,相互补充,都有其存在的必要,试图统—干旱定义是不现实的。各学科在干旱研究上应加强相互协作与交流。     

云南省Palmer旱度模式的建立——2010年干旱灾害特征分析

2010年春季云南省发生了特大干旱灾害,造成了严重的经济损失。按照Palmer旱度模式的思路,利用云南省的气象和土壤数据,建立了云南省的Palmer旱度模式。通过将计算得到的Palmer指数值与云南省的实际旱涝灾情历史记录进行对比,发现所建立的Palmer旱度模式能够较好地反映云南省的旱涝情况。基于该模式对2010年云南特大干旱灾害进行了特征分析,结果表明,此次干旱灾害是云南省30年来干旱变化过程中的一次突变。而且结果显示,在2010年的云南干旱灾害中,严重干旱地区整体呈现东西走向的空间分布,极端干旱地区主要分布在云南省的东南部。     

贵州春旱短期气候预测信号及预测模型研究

本文分析研究了贵州春旱的大气环流异常特征,寻找确定了贵州春早的6个短期气候预测信号,并在此基础上以1957～1996年作为样本年代建立了春旱短期气候预测模型.预测模型经1997～2000年为期4年的独立试报,取得了良好效果.     

近500年我国特大旱灾的研究

基于我国近500年历史旱灾资料,对其中持续特大干旱及旱灾个案进行了分析,并对其规律进行了探讨。指出干旱虽是常见的气候现象,但若是大范围、全流域乃至多个流域的持续干旱,则会酿成大灾。如明崇祯年间的持续数年的特大旱灾造成了水源和粮食的极度消耗,自然灾害导致了经济的全面崩溃,最终导致了朝代的更迭。本文以史为鉴,对我国现代面临的严峻的干旱缺水的形势进行了分析和预测,进而提出应将防范的重点集中在对社会影响极大的特大旱灾上,并且应当针对重旱、极旱的减灾对策及早研究和部署,行动越早就越主动。     

基于标准化降水蒸散指数的华南干旱趋势研究

最近几年华南地区干旱频发,为探讨该地区的干旱趋势,用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和1961-2010年华南地区具有代表性的50个站点的月降水及月平均气温资料,分析了该地区近50年来的干旱趋势、干旱空间分布、极端干旱事件发生频次和干旱持续时间。结果表明,华南地区普遍存在干旱事实,最近10年是干旱最严重的10年,Mann-Kendall检验表明该地区平均SPEI指数从1998年开始突变;干旱化最严重的区域是海南岛、广西南部和西部地区,广东的干旱化趋势最轻。20世纪70年代干旱和极端干旱事件较少,其后明显增多,干旱持续时间也有所延长。由于该地区降水呈现弱增加趋势而温度升高显著,因此推测温度升高导致蒸散增加可能是华南地区干旱化的主要原因。另外,降水频次的减少和集中也是导致近来极端干旱事件增多的原因之一。SPEI指数较好地体现了气候变暖导致的干旱化趋势。     

桂林市极端天气气候事件分析

桂林是以"甲天下"的山水美景而闻名的国际旅游城市,极端天气气候事件造成的灾害将给其社会经济的发展带来负面影响.本文采用桂林1951～2004年的资料,统计干旱、暴雨、高温和强对流天气等极端天气气候事件的出现频率、强度并分析其演变趋势.结果显示,近50年来,桂林市极端天气气候事件除暴雨、干旱强度增大外,频率变化呈平稳或减小趋势.     

山东省旱,涝,地震灾害的时序特征及其相互关系

分析了山东地区历史干旱、洪涝和地震灾害时间分布特征及其相互关系，发现旱涝与地震灾害一样具有不同时间尺度的准周期活动特征，且地震与旱涝具有一定相关关系．如内陆大地震多与干旱活动相继发生，海域地震多发生在洪涝活动时期；破坏性地震前多发生干旱，震后又常有洪涝相随等。进而对山东旱涝活动进行了初步分期。文中还对上述现象的成因作了简单分析。     

Forced migration, processes of return and livelihood construction among pastoralists in northern Sudan

The Hawaweer, a nomadic, pastoralist group in northern Sudan, were seriously affected by the drought in the Sahel during the mid-1980s. Their experience illustrates the connection between internally displaced people, normal mobility, forced migration, dilemmas and opportunities of return and how new livelihoods can be successfully constructed based on traditional rights, strong local institutions and external resources. Some displaced Hawaweer got the chance to return to their homeland as new livelihood opportunities were established; others did not get this opportunity nor would they have returned if they had been given the chance. In both situations, the processes of displacement and return had an impact on the sense of belonging and identity.     

Emergency seed aid in Kenya: some case study insights on lessons learned during the 1990s

This article reviews the effectiveness of seed-aid distributions in Kenya during the 1990s. It analyses the internal process and effects, i.e. the performance of the aid itself as well as the external process and effects, i.e. how seed-aid intervention affected farmers' broader agricultural management strategies. During the drought emergency of 1997, Kenyan farmers favourably judged many of the immediate seed-aid features such as crop and variety appropriateness and seed quality--even through the overarching goals of the seed assistance were muddled, ranging from assistance to the poor, to generalised gift-giving to stimulating progressive farming practice. However, the longer term analyses, drawn from recollections of a decade of relief activity, showed no concrete evidence that seed aid, per se, had strengthened their farming systems, nor that those who have received it once were less likely to receive it again. Thus, while seed aid has been promoted to lessen the effects of an 'acute' stress, drought, Kenyan farmers, in practice, have been experiencing much wider, 'chronic' seed system problems. This article ends by exploring this distinction between acute and chronic seed system stress and suggests a range of interventions appropriate to each.     

全球变暖与中国旱涝灾害大势的初步研究

旱涝灾害受气候变化的制约，还深受人类活动的影响。本研究一方面用历史类比方法研究近５００年我国历史冷朝时期的旱涝分布特征，另一方面分析人类活动，特别是城市建设发展对旱涝灾害的影响。最后将两者叠加，勾划出全球变化和未来社会经济形势下我国旱涝灾害分布大势。结果显示：在未来稳定暖的时期，长江中下游、江南、华南及嘉陵江上游地区易涝，其中以东南沿海为甚；黄淮、华北、环渤海湾地区易旱，其中以黄淮为甚。     

湖北省近40年旱涝轻重程度的次序确定

本文用旱涝指标(即H=P/E)式计算了湖北省解放以来各年月的旱涝指数,它对给定的时间和空间上的旱涝轻重程度具有明显的分辨能力,由此确定了历年各自然季节的旱涝轻重年份的次序。