Assessment of a regulatory model's performance relative to large spatial heterogeneity in observed ozone in Houston, Texas

In Houston, some of the highest measured 8-hr ozone (O3) peaks are characterized by sudden increases in observed concentrations of at least 40 ppb in 1 hr or 60 ppb in 2 hr. Measurements show that these large hourly changes appear at only a few monitors and span a narrow geographic area, suggesting a spatially heterogeneous field of O3 concentrations. This study assessed whether a regulatory air quality model (AQM) can simulate this observed behavior. The AQM did not reproduce the magnitude or location of some of the highest observed hourly O3 changes, and it also failed to capture the limited spatial extent. On days with measured large hourly changes in O3 concentrations, the AQM predicted high O3 over large regions of Houston, resulting in overpredictions at several monitors. This analysis shows that the model can make high O3, but on these days the predicted spatial field suggests that the model had a different cause. Some observed large hourly changes in O3 concentrations have been linked to random releases of industrial volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In the AQM emission inventory, there are several emission events when an industrial point source increases VOC emissions in excess of 10,000 mol/hr. One instance increased predicted downwind O3 concentrations up to 25 ppb. These results show that the modeling system is responsive to a large VOC release, but the timing and location of the release, and meteorological conditions, are critical requirements. Attainment of the O3 standard requires the use of observational data and AQM predictions. If the large observed hourly changes are indicative of a separate cause of high O3, then the model may not include that cause, which might result in regulators enacting control strategies that could be ineffective.     

Assessment of a regulatory model's performance relative to large spatial heterogeneity in observed ozone in Houston,Texas

In Houston, some of the highest measured 8-hr ozone (O₃) peaks are characterized by sudden increases in observed concentrations of at least 40 ppb in 1 hr, or 60 ppb in 2 hr. Measurements show that these large hourly changes appear at only a few monitors and span a narrow geographic area, suggesting a spatially heterogeneous field of O₃ concentrations. This study assessed whether a regulatory air quality model (AQM) can simulate this observed behavior. The AQM did not reproduce the magnitude or location of some of the highest observed hourly O₃ changes, and it also failed to capture the limited spatial extent. On days with measured large hourly changes in O₃ concentrations, the AQM predicted high O₃ over large regions of Houston, resulting in overpredictions at several monitors. This analysis shows that the model can make high O₃, but on these days the predicted spatial field suggests that the model had a different cause. Some observed large hourly changes in O₃ concentrations have been linked to random releases of industrial volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In the AQM emission inventory, there are several emission events when an industrial point source increases VOC emissions in excess of 10,000 mol/hr. One instance increased predicted downwind O₃ concentrations up to 25 ppb. These results show that the modeling system is responsive to a large VOC release, but the timing and location of the release, and meteorological conditions, are critical requirements. Attainment of the O₃ standard requires the use of observational data and AQM predictions. If the large observed hourly changes are indicative of a separate cause of high O₃, then the model may not include that cause, which might result in regulators enacting control strategies that could be ineffective.

Implications To show the attainment of the O₃ standard, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires the use of observations and model predictions under the assumption that simulations are capable of reproducing observed phenomena. The regulatory model is unable to reproduce observed behavior measured in the observational database. If the large observed hourly changes were indicative of a separate cause of high O₃, then the model would not include that cause. Inaccurate model predictions may prompt air quality regulators to enact control strategies that are effective in the modeling system, but prove ineffective in the real world.     

Empirical Evaluation of Ambient Ozone Interpolation Procedures to Support Exposure Models

ABSTRACT

An intercomparison study has been performed with six empirical ozone interpolation procedures to predict hourly concentrations in ambient air between monitoring stations. The objective of the study is to use monitoring network data to empirically identify an improved procedure to estimate ozone concentrations at subject exposure points. Four of the procedures in the study are currently used in human exposure models (nearest monitors daily mean and maximum, regression estimate used in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) pNEM, and inverse distance weighting), and two are being evaluated for this purpose (kriging in space and kriging in space and time). The study focused on spatial estimation during June 1-June 5, 1996, with relatively high observed ozone levels over Houston, Texas. The study evaluated these procedures at three types of locations with monitors of varying proximity. Results from the empirical evaluation indicate that kriging in space and time provides excellent estimates of ozone concentrations within a monitoring network, while the more often used techniques failed to capture observed pollutant concentrations. Improved estimation of pollutant concentrations within the region, and thus at subject locations, should result in improved exposure modeling.     

Efficacy of recent state implementation plans for 8-hour ozone

The development of state implementation plans (SIPs) for attainment of criteria pollutant standards is an integral component of air quality management in the United States. However, the content and efficacy of SIPs have rarely been examined systematically. Here, 20 SIPs developed in response to the 1997 8-hr ozone standard are reviewed as case studies of attainment efforts at the state level. Comparison of observed and model predicted ozone concentrations shows the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommended modeled attainment test to be a somewhat conservative predictor of attainment. Among 12 SIPs for regions that sought attainment by 2009, the test correctly predicted attainment and nonattainment in four and five regions, respectively; in the other three regions, attainment was observed despite predictions of nonattainment. However weight-of-evidence determinations and deviations from the recommended modeled attainment test methodology led five of these SIPs to predict attainment that was not in fact observed by 2009; three of those regions achieved attainment in 2010. Ozone and NO2 concentrations declined across much of the United States during the period covered by the SIPs, with rates of improvement strongly correlated with the initial pollution levels and hence greatest in nonattainment regions. However at monitors with mid-range levels of ozone initially, rates of reduction were largely independent of the initial attainment status of the region. This is consistent with thefact that apart from California, the majority of ozone precursor reductions documented by SIPs resulted from federal measures rather than from state or local controls specific to the nonattainment regions.     

A re-examination of ambient air ozone monitor interferences

Attaining the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (O3) could cost billions of dollars nationwide. Attainment of the NAAQS is judged on O3 measurements made by the Federal Reference Method (FRM), ethylene chemiluminescence, or a Federal Equivalent Method (FEM), predominantly ultraviolet (UV) absorption. Starting in the 1980s, FRM monitors were replaced by FEMs so that today virtually all monitoring in the United States uses the UV methodology. This report summarizes a laboratory and collocated ambient air monitoring study of interferences in O3 monitors. Potential interferences examined in the laboratory included water vapor, mercury, o-nitrophenol, naphthalene, p-tolualdehyde, and mixed reaction products from smog chamber simulations of urban atmospheric photochemistry. UV absorption O3 monitors modified for humidity equilibration were also collocated with UV FEM O3 monitors at six sites in Houston, TX, during the 2007 summer O3 season. The results suggest that humidity and interfering species can positively bias (overestimate) O3 measured by FEM monitors used to determine compliance with the O3 standards. The results also suggest that humidity equilibration can mitigate this bias.     

The effect of variability in industrial emissions on ozone formation in Houston, Texas

Ambient observations have indicated that high concentrations of ozone observed in the Houston/Galveston area are associated with plumes of highly reactive hydrocarbons, mixed with NO_x, from industrial facilities. Ambient observations and industrial process data, such as mass flow rates for industrial flares, indicate that the VOCs associated with these industrial emissions can have significant temporal variability. To characterize the effect of this variability in emissions on ozone formation in Houston, data were collected on the temporal variability of industrial emissions or emission surrogates (e.g., mass flow rates to flares). The observed emissions variability was then used to construct regionwide emission inventories with variable industrial emissions, and the impacts of the variability on ozone formation were examined for two types of meteorological conditions, both of which lead to high ozone concentrations in Houston. The air quality simulations indicate that variability in industrial emissions has the potential to cause increases and decreases of 10–52 ppb (13–316%), or more, in ozone concentration. The largest of these differences are restricted to regions of 10–20 km², but the variability also has the potential to increase regionwide maxima in ozone concentrations by up to 12 ppb.     

Sequencing diurnal air flow patterns for ozone exposure assessment around Houston,Texas

Understanding the human health impacts of ground level ozone requires detailed knowledge of its spatial–temporal distribution beyond that provided by surface monitoring networks. Here, a novel methodology based on unsupervised multivariate statistical techniques has been developed and used to identify the transport and dispersion patterns of tropospheric ozone. The hierarchical clustering method is used to visualize air flow patterns at two time scales relevant for ozone buildup. Sequentially executed statistical methods consider hourly 1-h surface wind field measurements. First, clustering is performed at the hourly time scale to identify 1-h surface flow patterns. Then, sequencing is performed at the daily time scale to identify groups of days sharing similar diurnal cycles for the surface flow. Selection of appropriate numbers of air flow patterns allows inference of regional transport and dispersion patterns for understanding population exposure to ozone. The methods are applied to the Houston, Galveston, and Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX study domain. Representative hourly wind field patterns are determined for the entire 2004 ozone season. Then, sequencing is performed for the 32 days in exceedance of the NAAQS for 8-h ozone. Four diurnal flow patterns capturing different ozone exceedance scenarios are isolated; each scenario is associated with a distinct spatial distribution for atmospheric pollutants.     

Near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares

Large petrochemicalflares, common in the Houston Ship Channel (the Ship Channel) and other industrialized areas in the Gulfof Mexico region, emit hundreds to thousands of pounds per hour of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). We employedfine horizontal resolution (200 mx200 m) in a three-dimensional (3D) Eulerian chemical transport model to simulate two historical Ship Channel flares. The model reasonably reproduced the observed ozone rise at the nearest monitoring stations downwind of the flares. The larger of the two flares had an olefin emission rate exceeding 1400 lb/hr. In this case, the model simulated a rate of increase in peak ozone greater than 40 ppb/hr over a 12 kmx12 km horizontal domain without any unusual meteorological conditions. In this larger flare, formaldehyde emissions typically neglected in official inventories enhanced peak ozone by as much as 16 ppb and contributed over 10 ppb to ambient formaldehyde up to approximately 8 km downwind of the flare. The intense horizontal gradients in large flare plumes cannot be simulated by coarse models typically used to demonstrate ozone attainment. Moreover even the relatively dense monitoring network in the Ship Channel may not be able to detect many transient high ozone events (THOEs) caused by industrial flare emissions in the absence of stagnant air recirculation or stalled sea breeze fronts, even though such conditions are unnecessary for the occurrence of THOEs.     

Integrated assessment modeling of atmospheric pollutants in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Part I: hourly and seasonal ozone

Recently, a comprehensive air quality modeling system was developed as part of the Southern Appalachians Mountains Initiative (SAMI) with the ability to simulate meteorology, emissions, ozone, size- and composition-resolved particulate matter, and pollutant deposition fluxes. As part of SAMI, the RAMS/EMS-95/URM-1ATM modeling system was used to evaluate potential emission control strategies to reduce atmospheric pollutant levels at Class I areas located in the Southern Appalachians Mountains. This article discusses the details of the ozone model performance and the methodology that was used to scale discrete episodic pollutant levels to seasonal and annual averages. The daily mean normalized bias and error for 1-hr and 8-hr ozone were within U.S. Environment Protection Agency guidance criteria for urban-scale modeling. The model typically showed a systematic overestimation for low ozone levels and an underestimation for high levels. Because SAMI was primarily interested in simulating the growing season ozone levels in Class I areas, daily and seasonal cumulative ozone exposure, as characterized by the W126 index, were also evaluated. The daily ozone W126 performance was not as good as the hourly ozone performance; however, the seasonal ozone W126 scaled up from daily values was within 17% of the observations at two typical Class I areas of the SAMI region. The overall ozone performance of the model was deemed acceptable for the purposes of SAMI's assessment.     

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Atmospheric Pollutants in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Part I: Hourly and Seasonal Ozone

Abstract

Recently, a comprehensive air quality modeling system was developed as part of the Southern Appalachians Mountains Initiative (SAMI) with the ability to simulate meteorology, emissions, ozone, size- and composition-resolved particulate matter, and pollutant deposition fluxes. As part of SAMI, the RAMS/EMS-95/URM-1ATM modeling system was used to evaluate potential emission control strategies to reduce atmospheric pollutant levels at Class I areas located in the Southern Appalachians Mountains. This article discusses the details of the ozone model performance and the methodology that was used to scale discrete episodic pollutant levels to seasonal and annual averages. The daily mean normalized bias and error for 1-hr and 8-hr ozone were within U.S. Environment Protection Agency guidance criteria for urban-scale modeling. The model typically showed a systematic overestimation for low ozone levels and an underestimation for high levels. Because SAMI was primarily interested in simulating the growing season ozone levels in Class I areas, daily and seasonal cumulative ozone exposure, as characterized by the W126 index, were also evaluated. The daily ozone W126 performance was not as good as the hourly ozone performance; however, the seasonal ozone W126 scaled up from daily values was within 17% of the observations at two typical Class I areas of the SAMI region. The overall ozone performance of the model was deemed acceptable for the purposes of SAMI’s assessment.     

A Re-Examination of Ambient Air Ozone Monitor Interferences

Abstract

Attaining the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (O₃) could cost billions of dollars nationwide. Attainment of the NAAQS is judged on O₃ measurements made by the Federal Reference Method (FRM), ethylene chemiluminescence, or a Federal Equivalent Method (FEM), predominantly ultraviolet (UV) absorption. Starting in the 1980s, FRM monitors were replaced by FEMs so that today virtually all monitoring in the United States uses the UV methodology. This report summarizes a laboratory and collocated ambient air monitoring study of interferences in O₃ monitors. Potential interferences examined in the laboratory included water vapor, mercury, o-nitrophenol, naphthalene, p-tolualdehyde, and mixed reaction products from smog chamber simulations of urban atmospheric photochemistry. UV absorption O₃ monitors modi?ed for humidity equilibration were also collocated with UV FEM O₃ monitors at six sites in Houston, TX, during the 2007 summer O₃ season. The results suggest that humidity and interfering species can positively bias (overestimate) O₃ measured by FEM monitors used to determine compliance with the O₃ standards. The results also suggest that humidity equilibration can mitigate this bias.     

Enhanced ozone over western North America from biomass burning in Eurasia during April 2008 as seen in surface and profile observations

During April 2008, as part of the International Polar Year (IPY), a number of ground-based and aircraft campaigns were carried out in the North American Arctic region (e.g., ARCTAS, ARCPAC). The widespread presence during this period of biomass burning effluent, both gaseous and particulate, has been reported. Unusually high ozone readings for this time of year were recorded at surface ozone monitoring sites from northern Alaska to northern California. At Barrow, Alaska, the northernmost point in the United States, the highest April ozone readings recorded at the surface (hourly average values >55 ppbv) in 37 years of observation were measured on April 19, 2008. At Denali National Park in central Alaska, an hourly average of 79 ppbv was recorded during an 8-h period in which the average was over 75 ppbv, exceeding the ozone ambient air quality standard threshold value in the U.S. Elevated ozone (>60 ppbv) persisted almost continuously from April 19–23 at the monitoring site during this event. At a coastal site in northern California (Trinidad Head), hourly ozone readings were >50 ppbv almost continuously for a 35-h period from April 18–20. At several sites in northern California, located to the east of Trinidad Head, numerous occurrences of ozone readings exceeding 60 ppbv were recorded during April 2008. Ozone profiles from an extensive series of balloon soundings showed lower tropospheric features at ～1–6 km with enhanced ozone during the times of elevated ozone amounts at surface sites in western Canada and the U.S. Based on extensive trajectory calculations, biomass burning in regions of southern Russia was identified as the likely source of the observed ozone enhancements. Ancillary measurements of atmospheric constituents and optical properties (aerosol optical thickness) supported the presence of a burning plume at several locations. At two coastal sites (Trinidad Head and Vancouver Island), profiles of a large suite of gases were measured from airborne flask samples taken during probable encounters with burning plumes. These profiles aided in characterizing the vertical thickness of the plumes, as well as confirming that the plumes reaching the west coast of North America were associated with biomass burning events.     

Impact of two chemistry mechanisms fully coupled with mesoscale model on the atmospheric pollutants distribution

Air quality models (AQM) consist of many modules (meteorology, emission, chemistry, deposition), and in some conditions such as: vicinity of clouds or aerosols plumes, complex local circulations (mountains, sea breezes), fully coupled models (online method) are necessary. In order to study the impact of lumped chemical mechanisms in AQM simulations, we examine the ability of both different chemical mechanisms: (i) simplified: Condensed Version of the MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique 2.2 (CV-MOCA2.2), and (ii) reference: Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Model (RACM), which are coupled online with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling Systems (RAMS) model, on the distribution of pollutants. During the ESCOMPTE experiment (Expérience sur Site pour COntraindre les Modèles de Pollution et de Transport d’Emissions) conducted over Southern France (including urban and industrial zones), Intensive observation periods (IOP) characterized by various meteorological and mixed chemical conditions are simulated. For both configurations of modeling, numerical results are compared with surface measurements (75 stations) for primary (NO_x) and secondary (O₃) species. We point out the impact of the two different chemical mechanisms on the production of species involved in the oxidizing capacity such as ozone and radicals within urban and industrial areas. We highlight that both chemical mechanisms produce very similar results for the main pollutants (NO_x and O₃) in three-dimensional (3D) distribution, despite large discrepancies in 0D modeling. For ozone concentration, we found sometimes small differences (5–10 ppb) between the mechanisms under study according to the cases (polluted or not). The relative difference between the two mechanisms over the whole domain is only −7% for ozone from CV-MOCA 2.2 versus RACM. When the order of magnitude is needed rather than an accurate estimate, a reduced mechanism is satisfactory. It has the advantage of running faster (four times less than CPU time on SGI 3800 with 30 processors). Simplified mechanisms are really important to study cases for which an online coupling is necessary between meso-scale and chemistry models (clouds or aerosols plumes impacts, highly variable meteorology).     

Near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares

Large petrochemical flares, common in the Houston Ship Channel (the Ship Channel) and other industrialized areas in the Gulf of Mexico region, emit hundreds to thousands of pounds per hour of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). We employed fine horizontal resolution (200 m?×?200 m) in a three-dimensional (3D) Eulerian chemical transport model to simulate two historical Ship Channel flares. The model reasonably reproduced the observed ozone rise at the nearest monitoring stations downwind of the flares. The larger of the two flares had an olefin emission rate exceeding 1400 lb/hr. In this case, the model simulated a rate of increase in peak ozone greater than 40 ppb/hr over a 12 km?×?12 km horizontal domain without any unusual meteorological conditions. In this larger flare, formaldehyde emissions typically neglected in official inventories enhanced peak ozone by as much as 16 ppb and contributed over 10 ppb to ambient formaldehyde up to ～8 km downwind of the flare. The intense horizontal gradients in large flare plumes cannot be simulated by coarse models typically used to demonstrate ozone attainment. Moreover, even the relatively dense monitoring network in the Ship Channel may not be able to detect many transient high ozone events (THOEs) caused by industrial flare emissions in the absence of stagnant air recirculation or stalled sea breeze fronts, even though such conditions are unnecessary for the occurrence of THOEs.

Implications: Flare minimization may be an important strategy to attain the U.S. federal ozone standard in industrialized areas, and to avoid inordinate exposure to formaldehyde in neighborhoods surrounding petrochemical facilities. Moreover, air quality monitoring networks, emission inventories, and chemical transport models with higher spatial and temporal resolution and more refined speciation of HRVOCs are needed to better account for the near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares.     

Stochastic model to forecast ground-level ozone concentration at urban and rural areas

Stochastic models that estimate the ground-level ozone concentrations in air at an urban and rural sampling points in South-eastern Spain have been developed. Studies of temporal series of data, spectral analyses of temporal series and ARIMA models have been used. The ARIMA model (1,0,0) x (1,0,1)24 satisfactorily predicts hourly ozone concentrations in the urban area. The ARIMA (2,1,1) x (0,1,1)24 has been developed for the rural area. In both sampling points, predictions of hourly ozone concentrations agree reasonably well with measured values. However, the prediction of hourly ozone concentrations in the rural point appears to be better than that of the urban point. The performance of ARIMA models suggests that this kind of modelling can be suitable for ozone concentrations forecasting.     

Scientific Basis for the VOC Reactivity Issues Raised by Section 183(e) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990

A methodology for determining regional ozone design values and the expected number of exceedances is described. The methodology was applied to data bases for one year or less from four U.S. urban areas: Houston, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and St. Louis. The effects of reducing numbers of stations in a network were tested, and it was concluded that networks of nine or ten appropriately selected stations are adequate for estimating design values. Using the methodology described, the expected number of exceedances tends to be underestimated when using smaller networks; however, this appears to be an artifact of the conservative approach taken in developing the methodology.     

Evaluation of the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5)-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) performance in hindcast and forecast of ground-level ozone

This paper presents the first attempt to apply the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5)-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) model system to simulate ground-level ozone (O3) over the continental Southeast Asia (CSEA) region for both hindcast and forecast purposes. Hindcast simulation was done over the CSEA domain for two historical O3 episodes, January 26-29, 2004 (January episode, northeast monsoon) and March 24-26, 2004 (March episode, southwest monsoon). Experimental forecast was done for next-day hourly O3 during January 2006 over the central part of Thailand (CENTHAI). Available data from 20 ambient monitoring stations in Thailand and 3 stations in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, were used for the episode analysis and for the model performance evaluation. The year 2000 anthropogenic emission inventory prepared by the Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research at the University of Iowa was projected to the simulation year on the basis of the regional average economic growth rate. Hourly emission in urban areas was prepared using ambient carbon monoxide concentration as a surrogate for the emission intensity. Biogenic emissions were estimated based on data from the Global Emissions Inventory Activity. Hindcast simulations (CSEA) were performed with 0.5 degree x 0.5 degree resolution, whereas forecast simulations (CENTHAI) were done with 0.1 degree x 0.1 degree hourly emission input data. MM5-CMAQ model system performance during the selected episodes satisfactorily met U.S. Environmental Protection Agency criteria for O3 for most simulated days. The experiment forecast for next-day hourly O3 in January 2006 yielded promising results. Modeled plumes of ozone in both hindcast and forecast cases agreed with the main wind fields and extended over considerable downwind distances from large urban areas.     

Formation and Transport of the Madrid Ozone Plume

Abstract

The main results of an experimental study focusing on the formation and transport of photochemical pollution in the Madrid air basin are presented. This southern European, heavily populated urban area is located on an elevated plateau at a height of 700 m, near a mountain range with maximum heights of around 2,400 m. Daily and seasonal cycles of ozone were documented during a one-year survey at three semi-rural sites located 30 km away from the urban center. Maximum hourly values of up to 140 ppb were measured, and the ozone generated within the urban plume on polluted days (when values exceeded 90 ppb) has been estimated at around 40-50 ppb.A meteorological characterization of these smoggy days pointed out the influence of thermally induced local wind flows on the concentration daily cycles at the measuring sites, denoting a preferred advection of the urban plume. Moreover, during intensive summer field campaigns, the use of meteorological and ozone sondes, as well as an instrumented aircraft, revealed some features about the horizontal and vertical distribution of the polluted air masses, as well as their evolution within the planetary boundary layer. Ozone plumes have been detected up to 100 km away from the city, usually mixed in a layer that reaches a height of 1,000-1,500 m in the afternoon. On some occasions, ozone-enriched layers have been detected as high as 4,000 m during morning hours, suggesting possible tropospheric injection induced by topographydriven flows or convective mesoscale systems that are usually present in the center of the Iberian Peninsula in the summer.     

Long-term meteorologically independent trend analysis of ozone air quality at an urban site in the greater Houston area

The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area of Texas has a history of ozone exceedances and is currently classified under moderate nonattainment status for the 2008 8-hr ozone standard of 75 ppb. The HGB area is characterized by intense solar radiation, high temperature, and high humidity, which influence day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations. Long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influence need to be constructed for ascertaining the effectiveness of air quality management in this area. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique, used to separate different scales of motion in a time series, is applied in the current study for maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations at an urban site (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] Air Quality System [AQS] Site ID: 48-201-0024, Aldine) in the HGB area. This site, located within 10 miles of downtown Houston and the George Bush Intercontinental Airport, was selected for developing long-term meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone trends for the years 1990–2016. Results from this study indicate a consistent decrease in meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone between 2000 and 2016. This pattern could be partially attributed to a reduction in underlying nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions, particularly lowering nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) levels, and a decrease in the release of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). Results also suggest solar radiation to be most strongly correlated to ozone, with temperature being the secondary meteorological control variable. Relative humidity and wind speed have tertiary influence at this site. This study observed that meteorological variability accounts for a high of 61% variability in baseline ozone (low-frequency component, sum of long-term and seasonal components), whereas 64% of the change in long-term MDA8 ozone post 2000 could be attributed to NO_x emission reduction. Long-term MDA8 ozone trend component was estimated to be decreasing at a linear rate of 0.412 ± 0.007 ppb/yr for the years 2000–2016 and 0.155 ± 0.005 ppb/yr for the overall period of 1990–2016.

Implications: The effectiveness of air emission controls can be evaluated by developing long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influences. The KZ filter technique is a well-established method to separate an air quality time series into short-term, seasonal, and long-term components. This paper applies the KZ filter technique to MDA8 ozone data between 1990 and 2016 at an urban site in the greater Houston area and estimates the variance accounted for by the primary meteorological control variables. Estimates for linear trends of MDA8 ozone are calculated and underlying causes are investigated to provide a guidance for further investigation into air quality management of the greater Houston area.     

An examination of the 6:00 a.m.-9:00 a.m. measurements of ozone precursors in the New York City metropolitan area

In recent years, ambient measurements of hourly ozone precursor concentrations, namely speciated and total nonmethane organic compounds (NMOCs), have become available through the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) program. Prior to this, NMOCs were measured in the central business district using a canister to obtain the 3-hr integrated sample for the 6:00 a.m.-9:00 a.m. period. Such sampling had been carried out annually for nearly a decade at three locations in the New York City metropolitan area. The intent of these measurements, along with measurements of the other ozone precursor, NO(x), was to provide an understanding of ozone formation and the emissions loading and mix in the urban area. The analysis of NMOC and NO(x) measurements shows a downward trend in the case of NMOC. In addition, we compared the canister-based NMOC concentrations with data obtained from the PAMS program for the 6:00 a.m.-9:00 a.m. period. Analysis of the NMOC concentrations reveals poor spatial correlation between the various monitors, reflecting the effect of localized emissions. This suggests that NMOC measurements made at a single location cannot be viewed as representative of the entire region. On the other hand, correlations were found to be higher among the NO(x) monitors, indicating the commonality of emission