Stream Nitrogen Sources Apportionment and Pollution Control Scheme Development in an Agricultural Watershed in Eastern China

A modeling system that couples a land-use-based export coefficient model, a stream nutrient transport equation, and Bayesian statistics was developed for stream nitrogen source apportionment. It divides a watershed into several sub-catchments, and then considers the major land-use categories as stream nitrogen sources in each sub-catchment. The runoff depth and stream water depth are considered as the major factors influencing delivery of nitrogen from land to downstream stream node within each sub-catchment. The nitrogen sources and delivery processes are lumped into several constant parameters that were calibrated using Bayesian statistics from commonly available stream monitoring and land-use datasets. This modeling system was successfully applied to total nitrogen (TN) pollution control scheme development for the ChangLe River watershed containing six sub-catchments and four land-use categories. The temporal (across months and years) and spatial (across sub-catchments and land-use categories) variability of nonpoint source (NPS) TN export to stream channels and delivery to the watershed outlet were assessed. After adjustment for in-stream TN retention, the time periods and watershed areas with disproportionately high-TN contributions to the stream were identified. Aimed at a target stream TN level of 2 mg L^?1, a quantitative TN pollution control scheme was further developed to determine which sub-catchments, which land-use categories in a sub-catchment, which time periods, and how large of NPS TN export reduction were required. This modeling system provides a powerful tool for stream nitrogen source apportionment and pollution control scheme development at the watershed scale and has only limited data requirements.     

Conservation strategies for effective land management of protected areas using an erosion prediction information system (EPIS)

This research demonstrates the predictive modeling capabilities of a geographic information system (GIS)-based soil erosion potential model to assess the effects of implementing land use change within a tropical watershed. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was integrated with a GIS to produce an Erosion Prediction Information System (EPIS) and modified to reflect conditions found in the mountainous tropics. Research was conducted in the Zenzontia subcatchment of the Río Ayuquíla, located within the Sierra de Manantlán Biosphere Reserve (SMBR), México. Expanding agricultural activities within this area will accentuate the already high rate of soil erosion and resultant sediment loading occurring in the Río Ayuquíla. Two land-use change scenarios are modeled with the EPIS: (1) implementation of soil conservation practices in erosion prone locations; and (2) selection of sites for agricultural expansion which minimize potential soil loss. Confronted with limited financial resources and the necessity for expedient action, managers of the SMBR can draw upon the predictive capacity of the EPIS to facilitate rapid and informed land-use planning decisions.     

Nonpoint Source Pollution Responses Simulation for Conversion Cropland to Forest in Mountains by SWAT in China

Several environmental protection policies have been implemented to prevent soil erosion and nonpoint source (NPS) pollutions in China. After severe Yangtze River floods, the “conversion cropland to forest policy” (CCFP) was carried out throughout China, especially in the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River. The research area of the current study is located in Bazhong City, Sichuan Province in Yangtze River watershed, where soil erosion and NPS pollution are serious concerns. Major NPS pollutants include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The objective of this study is to evaluate the long-term impact of implementation of the CCFP on stream flow, sediment yields, and the main NPS pollutant loading at watershed level. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed environmental model and is applied here to simulate and quantify the impacts. Four scenarios are constructed representing different patterns of conversion from cropland to forest under various conditions set by the CCFP. Scenario A represented the baseline, i.e., the cropland and forest area conditions before the implementation of CCFP. Scenario B represents the condition under which all hillside cropland with slope larger than 25° was converted into forest. In scenario C and D, hillside cropland with slope larger than 15° and 7.5° was substituted by forest, respectively. Under the various scenarios, the NPS pollution reduction due to CCFP implementation from 1996–2005 is estimated by SWAT. The results are presented as percentage change of water flow, sediment, organic N, and organic P at watershed level. Furthermore, a regression analysis is conducted between forest area ratio and ten years’ average NPS load estimations, which confirmed the benefits of implementing CCFP in reducing nonpoint source pollution by increasing forest area in mountainous areas. The reduction of organic N and organic P is significant (decrease 42.1% and 62.7%, respectively) at watershed level. In addition, this study also proves that SWAT modeling approach can be used to estimate NPS pollutants’ impacts of land use conversions in large watershed.     

Assessing Watershed-Scale, Long-Term Hydrologic Impacts of Land-Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model

Land-use change, dominated by an increase in urban/impervious areas, has a significant impact on water resources. This includes impacts on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution, which is the leading cause of degraded water quality in the United States. Traditional hydrologic models focus on estimating peak discharges and NPS pollution from high-magnitude, episodic storms and successfully address short-term, local-scale surface water management issues. However, runoff from small, low-frequency storms dominates long-term hydrologic impacts, and existing hydrologic models are usually of limited use in assessing the long-term impacts of land-use change. A long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA) model has been developed using the curve number (CN) method. Long-term climatic records are used in combination with soils and land-use information to calculate average annual runoff and NPS pollution at a watershed scale. The model is linked to a geographic information system (GIS) for convenient generation and management of model input and output data, and advanced visualization of model results. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model was applied to the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. Historical land-use scenarios for 1973, 1984, and 1991 were analyzed to track land-use change in the watershed and to assess impacts on annual average runoff and NPS pollution from the watershed and its five subbasins. For the entire watershed between 1973 and 1991, an 18% increase in urban or impervious areas resulted in an estimated 80% increase in annual average runoff volume and estimated increases of more than 50% in annual average loads for lead, copper, and zinc. Estimated nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loads decreased by 15% mainly because of loss of agricultural areas. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model is a powerful tool for identifying environmentally sensitive areas in terms of NPS pollution potential and for evaluating alternative land use scenarios for NPS pollution management.     

Sensitivity of Stream flow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed1

Dai, Zhaohua, Carl C. Trettin, Changsheng Li, Devendra M. Amatya, Ge Sun, and Harbin Li, 2010. Sensitivity of Streamflow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00474.x Abstract: A physically based distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, was used to evaluate the effects of altered temperature and precipitation regimes on the streamflow and water table in a forested watershed on the southeastern Atlantic coastal plain. The model calibration and validation against both streamflow and water table depth showed that the MIKE SHE was applicable for predicting the streamflow and water table dynamics for this watershed with an acceptable model efficiency (E > 0.5 for daily streamflow and >0.75 for monthly streamflow). The simulation results from changing temperature and precipitation scenarios indicate that climate change influences both streamflow and water table in the forested watershed. Compared to current climate conditions, the annual average streamflow increased or decreased by 2.4% with one percentage increase or decrease in precipitation; a quadratic polynomial relationship between changes in water table depth (cm) and precipitation (%) was found. The annual average water table depth and annual average streamflow linearly decreased with an increase in temperature within the range of temperature change scenarios (0-6°C). The simulation results from the potential climate change scenarios indicate that future climate change will substantially impact the hydrological regime of upland and wetland forests on the coastal plain with corresponding implications to altered ecosystem functions that are dependent on water.     

Effect of Land-Use Patterns on Total Nitrogen Concentration in the Upstream Regions of the Haihe River Basin, China

Nutrient loading into rivers is generally increased by human-induced land-use changes and can lead to increased surface water pollution. Understanding the extent to which land-use patterns influence nutrient loading is critical to the development of best-management practices aimed at water-quality improvement. In this study, we investigated total nitrogen (total N) concentration as a function of land-use patterns and compared the relative significance of the identified land-use variables for 26 upstream watersheds of the Haihe River basin. Seven land-use intensity and nine landscape complexity variables were selected to form the land-use pattern metrics on the landscape scale. After analyzing the significance of the land-use pattern metrics, we obtained five dominant principal components: human-induced land-use intensity, landscape patch-area complexity, area-weighted landscape patch-shape complexity, forest and grassland area, and landscape patch-shape complexity. A linear regression model with a stepwise selection protocol was used to identify an optimal set of land-use pattern predictors. The resulting contributions to the total N concentration were 50% (human-induced land-use intensity), 23.13% (landscape patch-shape complexity), 14.38% (forest and grassland area), and 12.50% (landscape patch-area complexity), respectively. The regression model using land-use measurements can explain 87% of total N variability in the upstream regions of Haihe River. The results indicated that human-related land-use factors, such as residential areas, population, and road density, had the most significant effect on N concentration. The agricultural area (30.1% of the study region) was not found to be significantly correlated with total N concentration due to little irrigative farmland and rainfall. Results of the study could help us understand the implications of potential land-use changes that often occur as a result of the rapid development in China.     

Evaluation of the MIKE SHE Model for Application in the Loess Plateau,China1

Abstract: Quantifying the hydrologic responses to land use/land cover change and climate variability is essential for integrated sustainable watershed management in water limited regions such as the Loess Plateau in Northwestern China where an adaptive watershed management approach is being implemented. Traditional empirical modeling approach to quantifying the accumulated hydrologic effects of watershed management is limited due to its complex nature of soil and water conservation practices (e.g., biological, structural, and agricultural measures) in the region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE to simulate basin runoff. Streamflow data measured from an overland flow‐dominant watershed (12 km²) in northwestern China were used for model evaluation. Model calibration and validation suggested that the model could capture the dominant runoff process of the small watershed. We found that the physically based model required calibration at appropriate scales and estimated model parameters were influenced by both temporal and spatial scales of input data. We concluded that the model was useful for understanding the rainfall‐runoff mechanisms. However, more measured data with higher temporal resolution are needed to further test the model for regional applications.     

A System Dynamics Model for the Environmental Management of the Sepetiba Bay Watershed, Brazil

In the recent past, the Sepetiba Bay watershed, located in the Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil has experienced rapid industrial development and population growth, as well as an increase in water pollution and environmental degradation. To analyze the complex interrelationships among the agents affecting the Sepetibza Bay environment, a system dynamics model was developed. The model builds on extensive studies conducted for the watershed, and simulates different hypotheses of economic growth and of demographic expansion. Thus, it can be used as a decision support tool for the identification of investment priorities and policy analyses under various scenarios. In order to provide a comprehensive approach to the environmental management of the Sepetiba Bay watershed, the model had to consider only the most relevant aspects of the behavior and the key interactions among agents operating in the watershed. In this article, the model’s structure is presented together with some of its main results.     

CONSTRUCTING A PROBLEM SOLVING ENVIRONMENT TOOL FOR HYDROLOGIC ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the integration of a comprehensive hydrological model known as the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) into a problem solving environment (PSE) for watershed management. The original PSE concept was a structure providing web‐based access to a suite of models, including HSPF and other models of in‐stream hydrodynamics, biological impacts and economic effects, for the watershed‐wide assessment of alternative land use scenarios. The present paper describes only the HSPF integration into the PSE program. Example applications to the 148 square kilometer (57 square mile) Back Creek subwatershed in the upper Roanoke River system (1,479 square kilometers or 571 square miles) in southwest Virginia are used to illustrate important concepts and linkages between land development and hydrological change using hypothetical' what if'scenarios. The features of HSPF and its limitations in this context are discussed. The paper as such is a proof‐of‐concept paper and not a completion report. It is intended to describe the PSE tool building process rather than analysis of the many possible simulation outcomes. However, the dominance of raw imperviousness as a contributor to hydrograph response is apparent in all the PSE simulations described in this paper.     

WATERSHED AND LAKE WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT: AN INTEGRATED MODELING APPROACH1

Watershed planning groups and action agencies seek to understand how lake water quality responds to changes in watershed management. This study developed and demonstrated the applicability of an integrated modeling approach for providing this information. An integrated model linking watershed conditions to water-quality of the receiving lake incorporated the following components: (1) an event-based AGNPS model to estimate watershed pollutant losses; (2) annualization of AGNPS results to produce annual lake pollutant loadings; (3) a base flow separation package, SAM, to estimate base flow; (4) estimates of nutrients in base flow and point sources; and (5) linkage of watershed loadings directly to EUTROMOD lake water quality algorithms. Results are presented for Melvern Lake, a 28-km² multipurpose reservoir with a 900-km² agricultural watershed in east central Kansas. Reasonable estimates of current lake quality were attained using an average phosphorus availability factor of 31 percent to calibrate model results to measured in-lake phosphorus. Comparison of a range of possible scenarios, including all cropland changed to no-till (best case) and all CRP and good-condition grasslands changed to cropland (worst case), indicated only a (4 percent change for in-lake phosphorus and a (2 percent change for chlorophyll a. These results indicated that this watershed is not sensitive to projected changes in land use and management.     

Analyzing the Impacts of Off-Road Vehicle (ORV) Trails on Watershed Processes in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve,Alaska

Trails created by off-road vehicles (ORV) in boreal lowlands are known to cause local impacts, such as denuded vegetation, soil erosion, and permafrost thaw, but impacts on stream and watershed processes are less certain. In Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve (WRST), Alaska, ORV trails have caused local resource damage in intermountain lowlands with permafrost soils and abundant wetlands and there is a need to know whether these impacts are more extensive. Comparison of aerial photography from 1957, 1981, and 2004 coupled with ground surveys in 2009 reveal an increase in trail length and number and show an upslope expansion of a trail system around points of stream channel initiation. We hypothesized that these impacts could also cause premature initiation and headward expansion of channels because of lowered soil resistance and greater runoff accumulation as trails migrate upslope. Soil monitoring showed earlier and deeper thaw of the active layer in and adjacent to trails compared to reference sites. Several rainfall-runoff events during the summer of 2009 showed increased and sustained flow accumulation below trail crossings and channel shear forces sufficient to cause headward erosion of silt and peat soils. These observations of trail evolution relative to stream and wetland crossings together with process studies suggest that ORV trails are altering watershed processes. These changes in watershed processes appear to result in increasing drainage density and may also alter downstream flow regimes, water quality, and aquatic habitat. Addressing local land-use disturbances in boreal and arctic parklands with permafrost soils, such as WRST, where responses to climate change may be causing concurrent shifts in watershed processes, represents an important challenge facing resource managers.     

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change and Farmer Vulnerability in Xishuangbanna Prefecture in Southwestern China

This study investigated land-use and land-cover change in three hamlets and two state rubber farms in the Nan-e watershed of the Xishuangbanna prefecture of Yunnan province in Southwestern China. The overall objective of the study was to understand how state policies affected land use and land cover and how changes in these variables affected farmer vulnerability to economic, social, and political events. Emphasis was placed on the cultivation of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), promoted in southern Yunnan province since the 1950s as a means to meet the demands of rapid economic development. The study combined remote sensing analysis with secondary data and in-field interviews in order to understand the coupling between land-use and land-cover change and farmer vulnerability in light of the geographic, historical, and sociopolitical situation.     

Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use Change on Forest Rodents in Indiana

Forest cover in the upper Wabash River basin in Indiana was fragmented due to agricultural conversion beginning more than 175 years ago. Currently, urban expansion is an important driver of land-use change in the basin. A land transformation model was applied to the basin to forecast land use from 2000 to 2020. We assessed the effect of this projected land-use change scenario on five forest rodent species at three scales: using occupancy models at the patch level, proportional occupancy models at the landscape level, and ecologically scaled landscape indices to assess the change in connectivity at the watershed level. At the patch and landscape scales, occupancy models had low predictability but suggest that gray squirrels are most susceptible to land-use change. At the watershed scale, declines in connectivity did not correspond with the decline of forest. This study highlights the importance of map resolution and consideration of matrix elements in constructing forecast models. Unforeseen drivers of land use, such as changing economic incentives, may also have important ramifications.     

Modeling the relationship between land use and surface water quality

It is widely known that watershed hydrology is dependent on many factors, including land use, climate, and soil conditions. But the relative impacts of different types of land use on the surface water are yet to be ascertained and quantified. This research attempted to use a comprehensive approach to examine the hydrologic effects of land use at both a regional and a local scale. Statistical and spatial analyses were employed to examine the statistical and spatial relationships of land use and the flow and water quality in receiving waters on a regional scale in the State of Ohio. Besides, a widely accepted watershed-based water quality assessment tool, the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS), was adopted to model the plausible effects of land use on water quality in a local watershed in the East Fork Little Miami River Basin. The results from the statistical analyses revealed that there was a significant relationship between land use and in-stream water quality, especially for nitrogen, phosphorus and Fecal coliform. The geographic information systems (GIS) spatial analyses identified the watersheds that have high levels of contaminants and percentages of agricultural and urban lands. Furthermore, the hydrologic and water quality modeling showed that agricultural and impervious urban lands produced a much higher level of nitrogen and phosphorus than other land surfaces. From this research, it seems that the approach adopted in this study is comprehensive, covering both the regional and local scales. It also reveals that BASINS is a very useful and reliable tool, capable of characterizing the flow and water quality conditions for the study area under different watershed scales. With little modification, these models should be able to adapt to other watersheds or to simulate other contaminants. They also can be used to study the plausible impacts of global environmental change. In addition, the information on the hydrologic effects of land use is very useful. It can provide guidelines not only for resource managers in restoring our aquatic ecosystems, but also for local planners in devising viable and ecologically-sound watershed development plans, as well as for policy makers in evaluating alternate land management decisions.     

Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data1

Nishat, Bushra and S.M. Mahbubur Rahman, 2009. Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1313‐1327. Abstract: Large‐scale water resources modeling can provide useful insights on future water availability scenarios for downstream nations in anticipation of proposed upstream water resources projects in large international river basins (IRBs). However, model set up can be challenging due to the large amounts of data requirement on both static states (soils, vegetation, topography, drainage network, etc.) and dynamic variables (rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, etc.) over the basin from multiple nations and data collection agencies. Under such circumstances, satellite remote sensing provides a more pragmatic and convenient alternative because of the vantage of space and easy availability from a single data platform. In this paper, we demonstrate a modeling effort to set up a water resources management model, MIKE BASIN, over the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) river basins. The model is set up with the objective of providing Bangladesh, the lowermost riparian nation in the GBM basins, a framework for assessing proposed water diversion scenarios in the upstream transboundary regions of India and deriving quantitative impacts on water availability. Using an array of satellite remote sensing data on topography, vegetation, and rainfall from the transboundary regions, we demonstrate that it is possible to calibrate MIKE BASIN to a satisfactory level and predict streamflow in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers at the entry points of Bangladesh at relevant scales of water resources management. Simulated runoff for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers follow the trends in the rated discharge for the calibration period. However, monthly flow volume differs from the actual rated flow by (?) 8% to (+) 20% in the Ganges basin, by (?) 15 to (+) 12% in the Brahmaputra basin, and by (?) 15 to (+) 19% in the Meghna basin. Our large‐scale modeling initiative is generic enough for other downstream nations in IRBs to adopt for their own modeling needs.     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.     

Constructing land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030

The National Environmental Assessment Agency of the RIVM in the Netherlands is obliged to report on future trends in the environment and nature every 4 years. The last report, Nature Outlook 2, evaluated the effects of four alternative socio-economic and demographic scenarios on nature and the landscape. Spatially detailed land-use maps are needed to assess effects on nature and landscape. The objective of the study presented here was how to create spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030 using the Environment Explorer, a Cellular Automata-based land-use model to construct land-use maps from four scenarios. One of these is discussed in great detail to show how the maps were constructed from the various scenario elements, story lines and additional data and assumptions on national, regional and local land-use developments. It was the first time in the history of our outlooks that consistent, spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands for 2030 were constructed from national economic and demographic scenarios. Each map represents a direct reflection of model input and assumptions. The maps do not show the most probable developments in the Netherlands but describe the possible change in land use if Dutch society were to develop according to one of the four scenarios. The large (societal) uncertainties are reflected in the total set of future land-use maps. The application of a land-use model such as the Environment Explorer ensures that all relevant aspects of a scenario, i.e. economic and demographic developments, zoning policies and urban growth, are integrated systematically into one consistent framework.     

The Control of Land-Use Patterns for Stormwater Management at Multiple Spatial Scales

While most research about the relationship between land use and watershed hydrological output has focused primarily on land-use types and their impact on hydrological processes, the relationship between characteristics of land-use patterns (such as pattern fragmentation, connectivity, and coherence) and hydrological processes has not been well examined. Using historical stormwater data, this study evaluates the hydrological effects of different land-use scenarios in the Qing-shui watershed in Beijing, China, at a variety of spatial scales. This study demonstrates that planning and managing land-use patterns can significantly reduce runoff under different scales, particularly for small storm events. In contrast to other aspects of land-use structure characteristics, such as the shape complexity of land-use patches, fragmented level of the patches of land-use types appear as dominant drivers of runoff. The results of the study suggest that land-use pattern management should be an important component of Best Management Practices to reduce the impacts of urbanization on natural hydrological processes.     

Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid‐21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid‐21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid‐21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30‐40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.     

Modeling the Ecological Consequences of Land-Use Policies in an Urbanizing Region

Insight into future land use and effective ways to control land-use change is crucial to addressing environmental change. A variety of growth-control policies have been adopted by municipal and regional governments within the United States to try to minimize the ecological impact of continued urbanization, but it is often unclear if those policies can meet the stated ecological goals. Land-use-change models provide a way to generate predictions of future change, while exploring the impact of different land-use policies before irreversible transformations occur. In this article, an approach to modeling land-use policies that focuses on their ecological consequences is described. The policy simulation approach was used to predict future land use in the Barnegat Bay and Mullica River watersheds, in southeastern New Jersey, USA. Four commonly used policies were considered: down-zoning, cluster development, wetlands/water buffers, and open space protection. The results of the analysis suggest that none of the policies modeled were able to alter future land-use patterns, raising questions about the effectiveness of commonly adopted land-use policies. However, the policy modeling approach used in this study proved to be a useful way to determine if adoption of a given policy could improve the likelihood of meeting ecological goals.