What Matters Most: Are Future Stream Temperatures More Sensitive to Changing Air Temperatures,Discharge, or Riparian Vegetation?

Simulations of stream temperatures showed a wide range of future thermal regimes under a warming climate — from 2.9°C warmer to 7.6°C cooler than current conditions — depending primarily on shade from riparian vegetation. We used the stream temperature model, Heat Source, to analyze a 37‐km study segment of the upper Middle Fork John Day River, located in northeast Oregon, USA. We developed alternative future scenarios based on downscaled projections from climate change models and the composition and structure of native riparian forests. We examined 36 scenarios combining future changes in air temperature (ΔT_air = 0°C, +2°C, and +4°C), stream discharge (ΔQ = ?30%, 0%, and +30%), and riparian vegetation (post‐wildfire with 7% shade, current vegetation with 19% shade, a young‐open forest with 34% shade, and a mature riparian forest with 79% effective shade). Shade from riparian vegetation had the largest influence on stream temperatures, changing the seven‐day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) from +1°C to ?7°C. In comparison, the 7DADM increased by 1.4°C with a 4°C increase in air temperature and by 0.7°C with a 30% change in discharge. Many streams throughout the interior western United States have been altered in ways that have substantially reduced shade. The effect of restoring shade could result in future stream temperatures that are colder than today, even under a warmer climate with substantially lower late‐summer streamflow.     

STREAM TEMPERATURE INCREASES AND LAND USE IN A FORESTED OREGON WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The Salmon Creek Watershed drains 325 km² of forested terrain in the Cascade Mountains of western Oregon. Over a 30–year period (from 1955 to 1984) average daily maximum and minimum stream temperatures, calculated from the 10 warmest days of each year, have risen 6°C and 2°C, respectively. In contrast, a small decrease in maximum air temperatures was found over the same period. Regression analysis indicated a highly significant (p < 0.01) relationship between a cumulative index of forest harvesting and maximum stream temperatures. Maximum temperatures also tended to increase for several years following major peak flow events. The interaction between harvest activity (logging and road construction), changing forest and riparian management practices and the occurrence of natural hydrologic events (peak flows and associated mass soil movements) tend to obscure specific cause-and-effect relationships regarding long-term changes in maximum stream temperature.     

TIMBER HARVEST IMPACTS ON SMALL HEADWATER STREAM CHANNELS IN THE COAST RANGES OF WASHINGTON1

ABSTRACT: We evaluated changes in channel habitat distributions, particle‐size distributions of bed material, and stream temperatures in a total of 15 first‐or second‐order streams within and nearby four planned commercial timber harvest units prior to and following timber harvest. Four of the 15 stream basins were not harvested, and these streams served as references. Three streams were cut with unthinned riparian buffers; one was cut with a partial buffer; one was cut with a buffer of non‐merchantable trees; and the remaining six basins were clearcut to the channel edge. In the clearcut streams, logging debris covered or buried 98 percent of the channel length to an average depth of 0.94 meters. The slash trapped fine sediment in the channel by inhibiting fluvial transport, and the average percentage of fines increased from 12 percent to 44 percent. The trees along buffered streams served as a fence to keep out logging debris during the first summer following timber harvest. Particle size distributions and habitat distributions in the buffered and reference streams were largely unchanged from the pre‐harvest to post‐harvest surveys. The debris that buried the clearcut streams effectively shaded most of these streams and protected them from temperature increases. These surveys have documented immediate channel changes due to timber harvest, but channel conditions will evolve over time as the slash decays and becomes redistributed and as new vegetation develops on the channel margins.     

Summer Temperature Patterns in Headwater Streams of the Oregon Coast Range1

Abstract: Cool summertime stream temperature is an important component of high quality aquatic habitat in Oregon coastal streams. Within the Oregon Coast Range, small headwater streams make up a majority of the stream network; yet, little information is available on temperature patterns and the longitudinal variability for these streams. In this paper we describe preharvest spatial and temporal patterns in summer stream temperature for small streams of the Oregon Coast Range in forests managed for timber production. We also explore relationships between stream and riparian attributes and observed stream temperature conditions and patterns. Summer stream temperature, channel, and riparian data were collected on 36 headwater streams in 2002, 2003, and 2004. Mean stream temperatures were consistent among summers and generally warmed in a downstream direction. However, longitudinal trends in maximum temperatures were more variable. At the reach scale of 0.5‐1.7 km, maximum temperatures increased in 17 streams, decreased in seven streams and did not change in three reaches. At the subreach scale (0.1‐1.5 km), maximum temperatures increased in 28 subreaches, decreased in 14, and did not change in 12 subreaches. Models of increasing temperature in a downstream direction may oversimplify fine‐scale patterns in small streams. Stream and riparian attributes that correlated with observed temperature patterns included cover, channel substrate, channel gradient, instream wood jam volume, riparian stand density, and geology type. Longitudinal patterns of stream temperature are an important consideration for background characterization of water quality. Studies attempting to evaluate stream temperature response to timber harvest or other modifications should quantify variability in longitudinal patterns of stream temperature prior to logging.     

A HYPOTHESIS ABOUT FACTORS THAT AFFECT MAXIMUM SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES ACROSS MONTANE LANDSCAPES1

ABSTRACT: Temperature is an important variable structuring lotic biotas, but little is known about how montane landscapes function to determine stream temperatures. We developed an a priori hypothesis that was used to predict how watershed elements would interact to affect stream temperatures. The hypothesis was tested in a series of path analyses using temperature data from 26 sites on second‐order to fourth‐order streams across a fifth‐order Rocky Mountain watershed. Based on the performance of the first hypothesis, two revised versions of the hypothesis were developed and tested that proved to be more accurate than the original hypothesis. The most plausible of the revised hypotheses accounted for 82 percent of the variation in maximum stream temperature, had a predicted data structure that did not deviate from the empirical data structure, and was the most parsimonious. The final working hypothesis suggested that stream temperature maxima were directly controlled by a large negative effect from mean basin elevation (direct effect = ‐0.57, p < 0.01) and smaller effects from riparian tree abundance (direct effect = ‐0.28, p = 0.03), and cattle density (direct effect = 0.24, p = 0.05). Watershed slope, valley constraint, and the abundance of grass across a watershed also affected temperature maxima, but these effects were indirect and mediated through cattle density and riparian trees. Three variables included in the a priori hypothesis ‐ watershed aspect, stream width, and watershed size ‐ had negligible effects on maximum stream temperatures and were omitted from the final working hypothesis.     

COLD WATER PATCHES IN WARM STREAMS: PHYSICOCHEMICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF SHADING1

ABSTRACT: Discrete cold water patches within the surface waters of summer warm streams afford potential thermal refuge for cold water fishes during periods of heat stress. This analysis focused on reach scale heterogeneity in water temperatures as influenced by local influx of cooler subsurface waters. Using field thermal probes and recording thermistors, we identified and characterized cold water patches (at least 3°C colder than ambient streamflow temperatures) potentially serving as thermal refugia for cold water fishes. Among 37 study sites within alluvial valleys of the Grande Ronde basin in northeastern Oregon, we identified cold water patches associated with side channels, alcoves, lateral seeps, and floodplain spring brooks. These types differed with regard to within floodplain position, area, spatial thermal range, substrate, and availability of cover for fish. Experimental shading cooled daily maximum temperatures of surface waters within cold water patches 2 to 4°C, indicating a strong influence of riparian vegetation on the expression of cold water patch thermal characteristics. Strong vertical temperature gradients associated with heating of surface layers of cold water patches exposed to solar radiation, superimposed upon vertical gradients in dissolved oxygen, can partially restrict suitable refuge volumes for stream salmonids within cold water patches.     

ERRORS RELATED TO RANDOM STREAM TEMPERATURE DATA COLLECTION IN UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Records of hourly water temperatures for two streams in the Upper Mississippi River basin were used to find the error between instantaneous measurements of stream water temperatures and true daily averages. The instantaneous summer water temperature measurements were assumed to be collected during daylight hours, and measurement times were selected randomly. The absolute error at the 95 percent confidence level of randomly collected stream water temperatures was less than 0.9°C for a 1 to 5m deep large river, but as large as 3.6°C for a 0.3 to lm deep small stream. Temperature readings of morning samples were usually below daily average values, and afternoon readings were usually above. Daily mean water temperatures were obtained with less than 0.23°C standard deviation from true daily averages if the daily maximum and minimum water temperatures were averaged. Sample results were obtained for the open water (summer) season only, since diurnal water temperature fluctuations in ice covered streams are usually negligible.     

STREAM TEMPERATURE ESTIMATION FROM AIR TEMPERATURE1

ABSTRACT: Air temperatures are sometimes used as substitutes for stream temperatures. To examine the errors associated with this procedure, linear relationships between stream temperatures, T, and air temperatures, T_a, recorded for 11 streams in the central U.S. (Mississippi River basin) were analyzed. Weather stations were an average 42 miles (range 0 to 144 miles) from the rivers. The general equations, T_w= 5.0 + 0.75 T_a and T_w= 2.9 + 0.86 T_a with temperatures in °C, were derived for daily and weekly water temperatures, respectively, for the 11 streams studied. The simulations had a standard deviation between measurements and predictions of 2.7°C (daily) and 2.1°C (weekly). Equations derived for each specific stream individually gave lower standard deviations, i.e., 2.1°C and 1.4°C, respectively. Small, shallow streams had smaller deviations than large, deep rivers. The measured water temperatures follow the air temperatures closely with some time lag. time lags ranged from hours to days, increasing with stream depth. Taking into account these time lags improved the daily temperature predictions slightly. Periods of ice cover were excluded from the analysis.     

STREAM TEMPERATURE CORRELATIONS WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN MINNESOTA: IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE WARMING1

ABSTRACT: Air temperatures are sometimes used as easy substitutes for stream temperatures. To examine the errors associated with this substitution, linear relationships between 39 Minnesota stream water temperature records and associated air temperature records were analyzed. From the lumped data set (38,082 daily data pairs), equations were derived for daily, weekly, monthly, and annual mean temperatures. Standard deviations between all measured and predicted water temperatures were 3.5°C (daily), 2.6°C (weekly), 1.9°C (monthly), and 1.3°C (annual). Separate analyses for each stream gaging station gave substantially lower standard deviations. Weather monitoring stations were, on average, 37.5 km from the stream. The measured water temperatures follow the annual air temperature cycle closely. No time lags were taken into account, and periods of ice cover were excluded from the analysis. If atmospheric CO₂ doubles in the future, air temperatures in Minnesota are projected (CCC GCM) to rise by 4.3°C in the warm season (April-October). This would translate into an average 4.1°C stream temperature rise, provided that stream shading would remain unaltered.     

RIPARIAN MICROCLIMATE AND STREAM TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO FOREST HARVESTING: A REVIEW1

Forest harvesting can increase solar radiation in the riparian zone as well as wind speed and exposure to air advected from clearings, typically causing increases in summertime air, soil, and stream temperatures and decreases in relative humidity. Stream temperature increases following forest harvesting are primarily controlled by changes in insolation but also depend on stream hydrology and channel morphology. Stream temperatures recovered to pre‐harvest levels within 10 years in many studies but took longer in others. Leaving riparian buffers can decrease the magnitude of stream temperature increases and changes to riparian microclimate, but substantial warming has been observed for streams within both unthinned and partial retention buffers. A range of studies has demonstrated that streams may or may not cool after flowing from clearings into shaded environments, and further research is required in relation to the factors controlling downstream cooling. Further research is also required on riparian microclimate and its responses to harvesting, the influences of surface/subsurface water exchange on stream and bed temperature regimes, biological implications of temperature changes in headwater streams (both on site and downstream), and methods for quantifying shade and its influence on radiation inputs to streams and riparian zones.     

Historical and Future Stream Temperature Change Predicted by a Lidar‐Based Assessment of Riparian Condition and Channel Width

Riparian forests attenuate solar radiation, thereby mediating an important component of the thermal budget of streams. Here, we investigate the relationship between riparian degradation, stream temperature, and channel width in the Chehalis River Basin, Washington State. We used lidar data to measure canopy opening angle, the angle formed between the channel center and trees on both banks; we assumed historical tree heights and calculated the change in canopy angle relative to historical conditions. We then developed an empirical relationship between canopy angle and water temperature using existing data, and simulated temperatures between 2002 and 2080 by combining a tree growth model with climate change scenarios from the NorWeST regional prediction. The greatest change between historical and current conditions (~7°C) occurred in developed portions of the river network, with the highest values of change predicted at channel widths less than ~40 m. Tree growth lessened climate change increases in maximum temperature and the length of river exceeding biologically critical thresholds by ~50%–60%. Moreover, the maximum temperature of channels with bankfull widths less than ~50 m remained similar to current conditions, despite climate change increases. Our findings are consistent with a possible role for the riparian landscape in explaining the low sensitivity of stream temperatures to air temperatures observed in some small mountain streams.     

Evaluating Links Between Forest Harvest and Stream Temperature Threshold Exceedances: The Value of Spatial and Temporal Data

We present the results of a replicated before‐after‐control‐impact study on 33 streams to test the effectiveness of riparian rules for private and State forests at meeting temperature criteria in streams in western Oregon. Many states have established regulatory temperature thresholds, referred to as numeric criteria, to protect cold‐water fishes such as salmon and trout. We examined across‐year and within‐year patterns of exceedance at control and treatment stream temperature probes. Determining whether an exceedance at the downstream end of a harvest was unambiguously related to harvest proved surprisingly difficult. The likelihood of a site exceeding its numeric criterion appeared related, in part, to the site's preharvest temperature range. Four control reaches as well as three preharvest treatment reaches exceeded their numeric criteria, necessitating additional analysis to evaluate timber harvest impacts. Nine percent of sites (3 of 33) both exceeded their numeric criteria and exhibited a potential harvest effect (16.7% of private sites [3 of 18], 0% of State sites [0 of 15]). After harvest, exceedances were typically observed in only the first of the two post‐harvest years. These findings highlight the importance of including temporal and spatial controls in temperature assessments of numeric criteria when the assessment's purpose is to determine whether exceedances are related to human activities.     

Stream Temperature Patterns over 35 Years in a Managed Forest of Western Washington

Stream temperature changes as a result of forest practices have been a concern in the Pacific Northwest for several decades. As a result of this concern, stream protection requirements for forest lands were first adopted in the early 1970s and have become progressively more stringent. While there have been multiple studies examining the effects of stream protection buffers on water temperature, there are few studies examining temperature patterns over long periods on intensively managed forests. Water temperature in the upper Deschutes River watershed, Washington has been monitored since 1975 and represents one of the longest studies of water quality on managed forests in the Pacific Northwest. This data record, collected from basins of varying sizes, has enabled us to examine the combined effects of hydro‐climatic patterns and forest management on stream temperature. Effects of harvest conducted prior to buffer regulations were clearly identifiable and most pronounced on smaller streams. We were not able to detect any response on larger channels to more recent timber harvest where riparian buffers were required. This analysis also emphasizes that it is critical to account for changing climate when examining long‐term temperature patterns. We found that in many cases the temperature improvements associated with more stringent buffer requirements implemented over the last 35 years in the Deschutes watershed have been offset by warming climatic conditions.     

Stream Temperature Surges Under Urbanization and Climate Change: Data,Models, and Responses1

ABSTRACT: Multiple anthropogenic stressors, including increased watershed imperviousness, destruction of the riparian vegetation, increased siltation, and changes in climate, will impact streams over the coming century. These stressors will alter water temperature, thus influencing ecological processes and stream biota. Quantitative tools are needed to predict the magnitude and direction of altered thermal regimes. Here, empirical relationships were derived to complement a simple model of in‐stream temperature [developed by Caissie et al. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 25 (1998) 250; Journal of Hydrology 251 (2001) 14], including seasonal temperature shifts linked to land use, and temperature surges linked to localized rainstorms; surges in temperature averaged about 3.5°C and dissipated over about 3 h. These temperature surges occurred frequently at the most urbanized sites (up to 10% of summer days) and could briefly increase maximum temperature by >7°C. The combination of empirical relationships and model show that headwater streams may be more pervasively impacted by urbanization than by climate change, although the two stressors reinforce each other. A profound community shift, from common cold and coolwater species to some of the many warmwater species currently present in smaller numbers, may be expected, as shown by a count of days on which temperature exceeds the “good growth” range for coldwater species.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins1

Jin, Xin and Venkataramana Sridhar, 2012. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 197‐220. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00605.x Abstract: In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin‐scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from ?3.8 to 36%. Changes in temperature were expected to be between 0.02 and 3.9°C. In the Spokane River region, changes in precipitation were expected to be between ?6.7 and 17.9%. Changes in temperature appeared between 0.1 and 3.5°C over a period of the next five decades between 2010 and 2060. Without bias‐correcting the simulated streamflow, in the Boise River basin, change in peak flows (March through June) was projected to range from ?58 to +106 m³/s and, for the Spokane River basin, the range was expected to be from ?198 to +88 m³/s. Both the basins exhibited substantial variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge estimates, and this knowledge of possible hydrologic impacts at the watershed scale can help the stakeholders with possible options in their decision‐making process.     

A basin-scale approach to estimating stream temperatures of tributaries to the lower Klamath River, California

Stream temperature is an important component of salmonid habitat and is often above levels suitable for fish survival in the Lower Klamath River in northern California. The objective of this study was to provide boundary conditions for models that are assessing stream temperature on the main stem for the purpose of developing strategies to manage stream conditions using Total Maximum Daily Loads. For model input, hourly stream temperatures for 36 tributaries were estimated for 1 Jan. 2001 through 31 Oct. 2004. A basin-scale approach incorporating spatially distributed energy balance data was used to estimate the stream temperatures with measured air temperature and relative humidity data and simulated solar radiation, including topographic shading and corrections for cloudiness. Regression models were developed on the basis of available stream temperature data to predict temperatures for unmeasured periods of time and for unmeasured streams. The most significant factor in matching measured minimum and maximum stream temperatures was the seasonality of the estimate. Adding minimum and maximum air temperature to the regression model improved the estimate, and air temperature data over the region are available and easily distributed spatially. The addition of simulated solar radiation and vapor saturation deficit to the regression model significantly improved predictions of maximum stream temperature but was not required to predict minimum stream temperature. The average SE in estimated maximum daily stream temperature for the individual basins was 0.9 +/- 0.6 degrees C at the 95% confidence interval.     

Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Stream Temperature II: Threshold Exceedance Duration Projections for Freshwater Mussels

We developed a stochastic hourly stream temperature model (SHSTM) to estimate probability of exceeding given threshold temperature (T) for specified durations (24 and 96 h) to assess potential impacts on freshwater mussels in the upper Tar River, North Carolina. Simulated daily mean stream T from climate change (CC) and land‐use (LU) change simulations for 2021‐2030 and 2051‐2060 were used as input to the SHSTM. Stream T observations in 2010 revealed only two sites with T above 30°C for >24 h and Ts were never >31°C for more than 24 h at any site. The SHSTM suggests that the probability, P, that T will exceed 32°C for at least 96 h in a given year increased from P = 0, in the 20th Century, to P = 0.05 in 2021‐2030 and to P = 0.14 in 2051‐2060. The SHSTM indicated that CC had greater effects on P for 24 and 96 h durations than LU change. Increased P occurred primarily in higher order stream segments in the downstream reaches of the basin. The SHSTM indicated that hourly stream T responded to LU change on the daily scale and did not affect stream T for durations >24 h. The SHSTM indicated that known thermal thresholds for freshwater mussels could be exceeded within the next 50 years in many parts of the upper Tar River basin in North Carolina, which could have negative consequences on the recruitment of freshwater mussels.     

Linking Hydrologic Alteration to Biological Impairment in Urbanizing Streams of the Puget Lowland,Washington, USA1

Abstract: We used a retrospective approach to identify hydrologic metrics with the greatest potential for ecological relevance for use as resource management tools (i.e., hydrologic indicators) in rapidly urbanizing basins of the Puget Lowland. We proposed four criteria for identifying useful hydrologic indicators: (1) sensitive to urbanization consistent with expected hydrologic response, (2) demonstrate statistically significant trends in urbanizing basins (and not in undeveloped basins), (3) be correlated with measures of biological response to urbanization, and (4) be relatively insensitive to potentially confounding variables like basin area. Data utilized in the analysis included gauged flow and benthic macroinvertebrate data collected at 16 locations in 11 King County stream basins. Fifteen hydrologic metrics were calculated from daily average flow data and the Pacific Northwest Benthic Index of Biological Integrity (B‐IBI) was used to represent the gradient of response of stream macroinvertebrates to urbanization. Urbanization was represented by percent Total Impervious Area (%TIA) and percent urban land cover (%Urban). We found eight hydrologic metrics that were significantly correlated with B‐IBI scores (Low Pulse Count and Duration; High Pulse Count, Duration, and Range; Flow Reversals, T_Qmean, and R‐B Index). Although there appeared to be a great deal of redundancy among these metrics with respect to their response to urbanization, only two of the metrics tested – High Pulse Count and High Pulse Range – best met all four criteria we established for selecting hydrologic indicators. The increase in these high pulse metrics with respect to urbanization is the result of an increase in winter high pulses and the occurrence of high pulse events during summer (increasing the frequency and range of high pulses), when practically none would have occurred prior to development. We performed an initial evaluation of the usefulness of our hydrologic indicators by calculating and comparing hydrologic metrics derived from continuous hydrologic simulations of selected basin management alternatives for Miller Creek, one of the most highly urbanized basins used in our study. We found that the preferred basin management alternative appeared to be effective in restoring some flow metrics close to simulated fully forested conditions (e.g., T_Qmean), but less effective in restoring other metrics such as High Pulse Count and Range. If future research continues to support our hypothesis that the flow regime, particularly High Pulse Count and Range, is an important control of biotic integrity in Puget Lowland streams, it would have significant implications for stormwater management.     

Guidelines for Riparian Vegetative Shade Restoration Based Upon a Theoretical Shaded‐Stream Model1

Abstract: Guidelines for riparian vegetative shade restoration were developed using a theoretical model of total daily radiation received by a shaded stream. The model assumed stream shading by nontransmitting, vertical or overhanging, solid vegetation planes in infinitely long reaches. Radiation components considered in the model were direct beam shortwave on the stream centerline, diffuse atmospheric shortwave, shortwave reflected by vegetation, atmospheric longwave, and longwave emitted by vegetation. Potential or extraterrestrial shortwave irradiation theory was used to compute beam shortwave radiation received at the stream centerline, and view factor theory was used to compute diffuse radiation exchange among stream, vegetation, and atmospheric planes. Model shade effects under clear skies were dominated by reductions in receipt of direct beam shortwave radiation. Model shade effects with cloudy skies were dominated by the “view factor effect” or the decreases in diffuse shortwave and longwave radiation from the atmosphere balanced against increases in longwave radiation from vegetation. Model shade effects on shortwave radiation reflected by vegetation were found to be negligible. The model was used to determine the vegetation height (H) to stream width (W) ratios needed to achieve 50, 75, and 90 % shade restoration for mid‐latitude conditions on clear and cloudy days. Ratios of vegetation height to stream width, for dense nontransmitting vegetation, generally ranged from 1.4 to 2.3 for 75% shade restoration at a mid‐latitude site (40°N). The model was used to show H/W needed for E‐W vs. N‐S stream azimuths, varying stream latitudes between 30° and 50°N, channels with overhanging vegetation, channels undergoing width changes, as well as the limits to shade restoration on very wide channels.