Modeling the benefits of power plant emission controls in Massachusetts

Older fossil-fueled power plants provide a significant portion of emissions of criteria air pollutants in the United States, in part because these facilities are not required to meet the same emission standards as new sources under the Clean Air Act. Pending regulations for older power plants need information about any potential public health benefits of emission reductions, which can be estimated by combining emissions information, dispersion modeling, and epidemiologic evidence. In this article, we develop an analytical modeling framework that can evaluate health benefits of emission controls, and we apply our model to two power plants in Massachusetts. Using the CALPUFF atmospheric dispersion model, we estimate that use of Best Available Control Technology (BACT) for NOx and SO2 would lead to maximum annual average secondary particulate matter (PM) concentration reductions of 0.2 microg/m3. When we combine concentration reductions with current health evidence, our central estimate is that the secondary PM reductions from these two power plants would avert 70 deaths per year in a population of 33 million individuals. Although benefit estimates could differ substantially with different interpretations of the health literature, parametric perturbations within CALPUFF and other simple model changes have relatively small impacts from an aggregate risk perspective. While further analysis would be required to reduce uncertainties and expand on our analytical model, our framework can help decision-makers evaluate the magnitude and distribution of benefits under different control scenarios.     

Spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric mercury concentrations emitted from a coal-fired power plant in Mexico

Atmospheric mercury in the environment as a result of the consumption of fossil fuels, such as coal used in electricity generation, has gained increased attention worldwide because of its toxicity, atmospheric persistence, and bioaccumulation. Determining or predicting the concentration of this pollutant in ambient air is essential for determining sensitive areas requiring health protection. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variability of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) concentrations and its dry deposition surrounding the Presidente Plutarco Elías Calles (CETEPEC) coal-fired power plant, located on Mexico’s Pacific coast. The CALPUFF dispersion model was applied on the basis of the daily consumption of coal during 2013 for each generating unit in the power plant and considering the local scale. The established 300-ng/m³ annual average risk factor considered by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (U.S. DHHS) and Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) must not be exceeded to meet satisfactory air quality levels. An area of 65 × 60 km was evaluated, and the results show that the risk level for mercury vapor was not exceeded because the annual average concentration was 2.8 ng/m³. Although the predicted risk level was not exceeded, continuous monitoring studies of GEM and of particulates in the atmosphere, soil, and water may be necessary to identify the concentration of this pollutant, specifically that resulting from coal-fired power plants operated in environmental areas of interest in Mexico. The dry mercury deposition was low in the study area; according to the CALPUFF model, the annual average was 1.40E?2 ng/m²/sec. These results represent a starting point for Mexico’s government to implement the Minamata Convention on Mercury, which Mexico signed in 2013.

Implications: The obtained concentrations of mercury from a bigger coal-fired plant in Mexico, through the application of the CALPUFF dispersion model by the mercury emissions, are below the level recommended according to the US Department of Health and Human Services and Integrated Risk Information System. These results provide evidence of important progress in the planning and installation to the future of monitoring mercury stations in the area of interest.     

Use of CALPUFF for exposure assessment in a near-field,complex terrain setting

CALPUFF is an atmospheric source-receptor model recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for use on a case-by-case basis in complex terrain and wind conditions. The ability of the model to provide useful information for exposure assessments in areas with those topographical and meteorological conditions has received little attention. This is an important knowledge gap for use of CALPUFF outside of regulatory applications, such as exposure analyses conducted in support of risk assessments and health studies. We compared deposition of cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) calculated with CALPUFF as a result of emissions from a zinc smelter with corresponding concentrations of the metals measured in attic dust and soil samples obtained from the surrounding area. On a point-by-point analysis, predictions from CALPUFF explained 11% (lead) to 53% (zinc) of the variability in concentrations measured in attic dust. Levels of heavy metals in soil interpolated to 100 residential addresses from the distribution of concentrations measured in soil samples also agreed well with deposition predicted with CALPUFF: R² of 0.46, 0.76, and 079 for Pb, Cd, and Zn, respectively. Community-average concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn measured in soil were significantly (p < 0.0001) and strongly correlated (R² ranged from 0.77 to 0.98) with predicted deposition rates. These findings demonstrate that CALPUFF can provide reasonably accurate predictions of the patterns of long-term air pollutant deposition in the near-field associated with emissions from a discrete source in complex terrain. Because deposition estimates are calculated as a linear function of air concentrations, CALPUFF is expected to be reliable model for prediction of long-term average, near-field ambient air concentrations in complex terrain as well.     

Environmental implications of electricity purchase from independent power producers: a case study from Thailand

This paper analyses the effect on the environment of electricity purchase from independent power producers (IPPs) in the case of Thailand. The environmental implication is evaluated in terms of the net change in emission of air pollutants with electricity purchase from IPPs by a utility. The main finding of the study is that electricity purchase from a non-dispatchable IPP plant based on coal-fired generation would increase the net emissions compared with that without the purchase from IPPs. The study also shows that the lower plant factor of the IPP plant would also increase the emission of air pollutants. Furthermore, with non-dispatchable IPP plants, the total emission of air pollutants would increase, whereas with dispatchable IPP plants the total emission would decrease with the level of electricity purchases.     

北京市燃煤的空气质量影响及其控制研究

建立了2005年北京市燃煤污染源排放清单,利用MM5-CMAQ模型计算了各区县各行业燃煤对北京市空气质量的影响。研究表明,2005年1月北京市燃煤源对各监测站点SO_2浓度的贡献在70%以上,对PM_(10)和NO_x浓度的贡献约为20%～40%和10%～30%;7月本地燃煤源对SO_2浓度的贡献在40%～50%左右。1月采暖锅炉对空气质量影响最大,占50%～70%;7月电厂的影响最大。依据北京市奥运空气质量保障方案以及"十一五"期间能源规划,建立了2010年燃煤污染源大气排放的规划情景,并模拟了各规划措施对大气质量的改善效果。通过实施电厂脱硫脱硝除尘、炼焦工业停产、钢铁行业和水泥行业搬迁减产、供热锅炉改造、平房用煤改造等措施,与2005年相比,SO_2平均浓度下降30%左右,NO_x和PM_(10)浓度的下降幅度15%。     

Air quality modeling for effective environmental management in the mining region

Air quality in the mining sector is a serious environmental concern and associated with many health issues. Air quality management in mining regions has been facing many challenges due to lack of understanding of atmospheric factors and physical removal mechanisms. A modeling approach called the mining air dispersion model (MADM) is developed to predict air pollutants concentration in the mining region while considering the deposition effect. The model takes into account the planet’s boundary conditions and assumes that the eddy diffusivity depends on the downwind distance. The developed MADM is applied to a mining site in Canada. The model provides values for the predicted concentrations of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, TSP, NO₂, and six heavy metals (As, Pb, Hg, Cd, Zn, Cr) at various receptor locations. The model shows that neutral stability conditions are dominant for the study site. The maximum mixing height is achieved (1280 m) during the evening in summer, and the minimum mixing height (380 m) is attained during the evening in winter. The dust fall (PM coarse) deposition flux is maximum during February and March with a deposition velocity of 4.67 cm/sec. The results are evaluated with the monitoring field values, revealing a good agreement for the target air pollutants with R-squared ranging from 0.72 to 0.96 for PM_2.5, from 0.71 to 0.82 for PM₁₀, and from 0.71 to 0.89 for NO₂. The analyses illustrate that the presented algorithm in this model can be used to assess air quality for the mining site in a systematic way. Comparisons of MADM and CALPUFF modeling values are made for four different pollutants (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, TSP, and NO₂) under three different atmospheric stability classes (stable, neutral, and unstable). Further, MADM results are statistically tested against CALPUFF for the air pollutants and model performance is found satisfactory.

Implications: The mathematical model (MADM) is developed by extending the Gaussian equation particularly when examining the settling process of important pollutants for the industrial region. Physical removal effects of air pollutants with field data have been considerred for the MADM development and for an extensive field case study. The model is well validated in the field of an open pit mine to assess the regional air quality. The MADA model helps to facilitate the management of the mining industry in doing estimation of emission rate around mining activities and predicting the resulted concentration of air pollutants together in one integrated approach.     

Modeling health impacts of air pollutant emissions from the coal-fired power industry based on LCA and oriented by WTP: a case study

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Coal-fired power plants are one of the major sources of coal consumption in China; they discharge various air pollutants and cause serious human...     

Development of a GIS-based decision support system for urban air quality management in the city of Istanbul

A decision support system has been developed for urban air quality management in the metropolitan area of Istanbul. The system is based on CALMET/CALPUFF dispersion modeling system, digital maps, and related databases to estimate the emissions and spatial distribution of air pollutants with the help of a GIS software. The system estimates ambient air pollution levels at high temporal and spatial resolutions and enables mapping of emissions and air quality levels. Mapping and scenario results can be compared with air quality limits. Impact assessment of air pollution abatement measures can also be carried out.     

CALPUFF and AERMOD Model Validation Study in the Near Field: Martins Creek Revisited

ABSTRACT

This paper describes a near-field validation study involving the steady-state, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guideline model AERMOD and the nonsteady-state puff model CALPUFF. Relative model performance is compared with field measurements collected near Martins Creek, PA—a rural, hilly area along the Pennsylvania-New Jersey border. The principal emission sources in the study were two coal-fired power plants with tall stacks and buoyant plumes. Over 1 yr of sulfur dioxide measurements were collected at eight monitors located at or above the two power plants' stack tops. Concurrent meteorological data were available at two sites. Both sites collected data 10 m above the ground. One of the sites also collected sonic detection and ranging measurements up to 420 m above ground. The ability of the two models to predict monitored sulfur dioxide concentrations was assessed in a four-part model validation. Each part of the validation applied different criteria and statistics to provide a comprehensive evaluation of model performance. Because of their importance in regulatory applications, an emphasis was placed on statistics that demonstrate the model's ability to reproduce the upper end of the concentration distribution. On the basis of the combined results of the four-part validation (i.e., weight of evidence), the performance of CALPUFF was judged to be superior to that of AERMOD.

IMPLICATIONS Use of the nonsteady-state CALPUFF model in the near field (<50 km) for regulatory applications has been limited because of the lack of appropriate model validation studies. Considered an alternative model by EPA, use of CALPUFF for regulatory purposes in the near field must be supported by a relevant performance evaluation using measured air quality data. This validation study should help address the lack of information on the performance of CALPUFF in near-field applications. The potential problem with the use of the robust high concentration as a metric in model validations is also examined.     

Application of an integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/CALPUFF modeling tool for source apportionment of atmospheric pollutants for air quality management: A case study in the urban area of Benxi,China

In this study, the authors endeavored to develop an effective framework for improving local urban air quality on meso-micro scales in cities in China that are experiencing rapid urbanization. Within this framework, the integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/CALPUFF modeling system was applied to simulate the concentration distributions of typical pollutants (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm [PM₁₀], sulfur dioxide [SO₂], and nitrogen oxides [NO_x]) in the urban area of Benxi. Statistical analyses were performed to verify the credibility of this simulation, including the meteorological fields and concentration fields. The sources were then categorized using two different classification methods (the district-based and type-based methods), and the contributions to the pollutant concentrations from each source category were computed to provide a basis for appropriate control measures. The statistical indexes showed that CALMET had sufficient ability to predict the meteorological conditions, such as the wind fields and temperatures, which provided meteorological data for the subsequent CALPUFF run. The simulated concentrations from CALPUFF showed considerable agreement with the observed values but were generally underestimated. The spatial-temporal concentration pattern revealed that the maximum concentrations tended to appear in the urban centers and during the winter. In terms of their contributions to pollutant concentrations, the districts of Xihu, Pingshan, and Mingshan all affected the urban air quality to different degrees. According to the type-based classification, which categorized the pollution sources as belonging to the Bengang Group, large point sources, small point sources, and area sources, the source apportionment showed that the Bengang Group, the large point sources, and the area sources had considerable impacts on urban air quality. Finally, combined with the industrial characteristics, detailed control measures were proposed with which local policy makers could improve the urban air quality in Benxi. In summary, the results of this study showed that this framework has credibility for effectively improving urban air quality, based on the source apportionment of atmospheric pollutants.

Implications: The authors endeavored to build up an effective framework based on the integrated WRF/CALPUFF to improve the air quality in many cities on meso-micro scales in China. Via this framework, the integrated modeling tool is accurately used to study the characteristics of meteorological fields, concentration fields, and source apportionments of pollutants in target area. The impacts of classified sources on air quality together with the industrial characteristics can provide more effective control measures for improving air quality.

Through the case study, the technical framework developed in this study, particularly the source apportionment, could provide important data and technical support for policy makers to assess air pollution on the scale of a city in China or even the world.     

A comparison of hourly with annual air pollutant emissions: Implications for estimating acute exposure and public health risk

Health risks from air pollutants are evaluated by comparing chronic (i.e., an average over 1 yr or greater) or acute (typically 1-hr) exposure estimates with chemical- and duration-specific reference values or standards. When estimating long-term pollutant concentrations via exposure modeling, facility-level annual average emission rates are readily available as model inputs for most air pollutants. In contrast, there are far fewer facility-level hour-by-hour emission rates available for many of these same pollutants. In this report, we first analyze hour-by-hour emission rates for total reduced sulfur (TRS) compounds from eight kraft pulp mill operations. This data set is used to demonstrate discrepancies between estimating exposure based on a single TRS emission rate that has been calculated as the mean of all operating hours of the year, as opposed to reported hourly emission rates. A similar analysis is then performed using reported hourly emission rates for sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) from three power generating units from a U.S. power plant. Results demonstrate greater variability at kraft pulp mill operations, with ratios of reported hourly to average hourly TRS emissions ranging from less than 1 to greater than 160 during routine facility operations. Thus, if fluctuations in hourly emission rates are not accounted for, over- or underestimates of hourly exposure, and thus acute health risk, may occur. In addition to this analysis, we also demonstrate an additional challenge when assessing health risk based on hourly exposures: the lack of human health reference values based on 1-hr exposures.

Implications: Largely due to the lack of reported hourly emission rate data for many air pollutants, an hourly average emission rate (calculated from an annual emission rate) is often used when modeling the potential for acute health risk. We calculated ratios between reported hourly and hourly average emission rates from pulp and paper mills and a U.S. power plant to demonstrate that if not considered, hourly fluctuations in emissions could result in an over- or underestimation of exposure and risk. We also demonstrate the lack of 1-hr human health reference values meant to be protective of the general population, including children.     

Source profile and health risk assessment of PM2.5 from coal-fired power plants in Fuxin,China

In order to improve and establish the localized source profile of PM_2.5 in Fuxin, the ashes under dust catcher were collected from four typical coal-fired power plants in Fuxin and twenty-eight components were measured. The source profile of PM_2.5 in the soot of the four coal-fired power plants was established. SO₄^2? was the most abundant component in the PM_2.5 of the soot of the four coal-fired power plants, followed by Ca²⁺ and organic carbon (OC). The content of element components in PM_2.5 smoke ranges from 5.06 to 10.97%, the content of ionic components ranges from 36.53 to 48.59%, and the total carbon content ranges from 9.43 to 11.36%. The divergence coefficient of PM_2.5 source profile in Fuxin coal burning smoke is mostly similar to that of Fushun, whereas the divergence coefficient of Colorado reaches 0.65, indicating that Fuxin coal burning power plant smoke has no similarity to Colorado. The order of the geological accumulation index of Ni, Cu, V, Mn, and Cr was Cr (4.58) > Mn (4.42) > V (4.38) > Cu (4.09) > Ni (4.06), showing a heavy pollution level. The health risk assessment model recommended by the USEPA was used to assess the health risk of heavy metals in soot of coal-fired power plants, and the non-carcinogenic risk values of As for children and adults were 45.7 and 4.90, respectively. The carcinogenic risk values of Cr for adults and children were the highest, with values of 3.66 × 10^?5 and 2.06 × 10^?5, respectively, followed by As.

     

An application of a puff dispersion model on power plant emissions in Yatagan region, Turkey

The present paper describes the application of the CALMET meteorological model and CALPUFF plume dispersion model to the Yatagan district to study the impact of Yatagan Power Plant emissions on the SO₂ levels on December 2000 in the region. Results indicate that SO₂ concentrations over the city depend strongly on advected emissions from the power plant and on the local variation of the wind field and limited vertical mixing conditions. It is found that South Westerly and light winds and the night time surface inversion layers lead to accumulation of pollutants coming from the power plant over the Yatagan district. The results are compared with the observations obtained from Local Environmental Authorities of Mugla. The simulation results indicate that the maximum ground level concentrations were found northeast from the source, which agrees with the measurements, but differ in terms of magnitudes.     

CALPUFF and AERMOD model validation study in the near field: Martins Creek revisited

This paper describes a near-field validation study involving the steady-state, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guideline model AERMOD and the nonsteady-state puff model CALPUFF. Relative model performance is compared with field measurements collected near Martins Creek, PA-a rural, hilly area along the Pennsylvania-New Jersey border. The principal emission sources in the study were two coal-fired power plants with tall stacks and buoyant plumes. Over 1 yr of sulfur dioxide measurements were collected at eight monitors located at or above the two power plants' stack tops. Concurrent meteorological data were available at two sites. Both sites collected data 10 m above the ground. One of the sites also collected sonic detection and ranging measurements up to 420 m above ground. The ability of the two models to predict monitored sulfur dioxide concentrations was assessed in a four-part model validation. Each part of the validation applied different criteria and statistics to provide a comprehensive evaluation of model performance. Because of their importance in regulatory applications, an emphasis was placed on statistics that demonstrate the model's ability to reproduce the upper end of the concentration distribution. On the basis of the combined results of the four-part validation (i.e., weight of evidence), the performance of CALPUFF was judged to be superior to that of AERMOD.     

Impact of NOx Emissions Released from a Gas Turbine-Based Power Plant on the Ambient Air Quality

The number of gas turbine- (GT-) based power plants is rapidly increasing to meet the world’s power demands. Until a few years ago, fossil fuel, and specifically fuel oil, was considered the major energy source for gas turbine operation. Due to the high amount of pollution that fuel oil generates, natural gas has become a popular source of energy due to its lower emissions compared to fuel oil. As a result, many GTs have switched to natural gas as an alternative to fuel oil. However, pollutants expelled from GT-based power plants operating on natural gas impact surrounding air quality. The objective of this study was to examine the dispersion of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emitted from a GT-based power plant located in the Sultanate of Oman. Supported by CALPUFF dispersion modeling software, six scenarios were investigated in this study. The first four scenarios considered a case where the GT-based power plant was operating on natural gas during winter and summer and for open and combined cycle modes. The remaining two scenarios considered, for both open and combined cycle modes, the case where the GT-based power plant was operating on fuel oil. Whether run by natural gas or fuel oil, CALPUFF simulation results for both seasons showed that NO_x concentrations were higher when GTs were used in the combined cycle mode. The concentrations were still lower than the allowable concentrations set by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) standards. In contrast, for the case where the power plant operated on fuel oil, the NO_x one-hour average simulated results exceeded the allowable limits only when the combined cycle mode was activated.     

Spatial surrogates for the disaggregation of CORINAIR emission inventories

CORINAIR atmospheric emission inventories are frequently used input data for air quality models with a domain situated in Europe. In CORINAIR emission inventories, sources are broken down over 11 major source categories. This paper presents spatial surrogates for the disaggregation of CORINAIR atmospheric emission inventories for input of air pollutants and particulate matter to grid or polygon based air quality model domains inside Europe. The basis for the disaggregation model was the CLC2000 land cover data to which statistical weights were added. Weights were population census data for residential emissions, employment statistics for agricultural and industrial area emissions, livestock statistics for ammonia emissions and annual aircraft movements for emissions realized by air transport. Additional road and off-road network information was used to disaggregate emissions realized by traffic. A comparison of top down produced emission estimates with spatially resolved national emission data for The Netherlands and the United Kingdom gave confidence in the present spatial surrogates as a tool for the top down production of atmospheric emission maps. Explained variance at a spatial resolution of 5 km was >70% for CO, NMVOC and NO_x, >60% for PM10 and almost 50% for SO₂.     

Health risk assessment of exposure to organic matter from the use of reclaimed water in toilets

To estimate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of six volatile organic compounds (VOCs) found in reclaimed water used for flushing toilets, a probabilistic health risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulations was used. Before Monte Carlo simulations, the contaminant volatilization model was applied to estimate the concentration of the pollutants in air. Moreover, a questionnaire was used to acquire daily exposure time and the Batch Fit tool of Crystal Ball software was applied to find the best-fitting distribution of a part of the input parameters. The risk analysis indicated that the health risks from six VOCs were lower than the negligible risk level (1?×?10^?8) in all cases, and the health risk for females was slightly higher than that for males. Overall, exposure to organic pollutants in reclaimed water during toilet flushing does not currently pose a significant carcinogenic risk to humans. In this study, we want to provide some information on the health risk from reclaimed water used for toilet flushing in China and hope that it will be useful to promote the application of reclaimed water in water-deficient areas.     

Modeling Analysis of Power Plants for Compliance Extensions in 51 Air Quality Control Regions

Past studies indicate a nationwide potential low-sulfur coal supply deficit in 1975 arising from extremely low-sulfur State Implementation Plan requirements which cannot ail be met in time by available coal and gas cleaning technology. One means to alleviate this net deficit would be to grant variances where at least primary air quality standards would be maintained.

An extensive modeling analysis was conducted by EPA and Walden Research on a large number of power plants in 51 AQCRs located in 20 states to determine if compliance extensions at these plants could significantly reduce the projected deficit of lowsulfur coal. Using simulation modeling, air quality impact at each plant for projected 1975 operations was determined with application of SIP regulatory requirements and with a full variance from SIP requirements for coal-fired boilers. The results from this investigation indicate that the attainment of primary SO2 air quality standards for the coal-fired plants would probably not be jeopardized by the application of full variance status to 34% of the plants and limited variance status to an additional 22% of the plants. No variance is appropriate for the remaining plants. The projected annual reduction In low-sulfur coal demand (less than 1.0% sulfur) is approximately 137 million tons. The projected shift in the average coal sulfur distribution is from 1.2% under SIP status to 2.1% under the applicable variance status. The power plant variance strategy appears, then, to offer a potentially feasible approach toward alleviating the low-sulfur coal deficit problem without jeopardizing attainment of primary air quality standards. It should be emphasized that compliance extensions are not the only way, or the most desirable way, of dealing with this problem. The final selection of a strategy for a given state or AQCR and the implementation of that strategy involve many questions and policy matters beyond the scope of this study.     

Development of an individual exposure model for application to the Southern California children's health study

The Southern California Children's Health Study (CHS) investigated the relationship between air pollution and children's chronic respiratory health outcomes. Ambient air pollutant measurements from a single CHS monitoring station in each community were used as surrogates for personal exposures of all children in that community. To improve exposure estimates for the CHS children, we developed an Individual Exposure Model (IEM) to retrospectively estimate the long-term average exposure of the individual CHS children to CO, NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and elemental carbon (EC) of ambient origin. In the IEM, pollutant concentrations due to both local mobile source emissions (LMSE) and meteorologically transported pollutants were taken into account by combining a line source model (CALINE4) with a regional air quality model (SMOG). To avoid double counting, local mobile sources were removed from SMOG and added back by CALINE4. Limited information from the CHS survey was used to group each child into a specific time-activity category, for which corresponding Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD) time-activity profiles were sampled. We found local traffic significantly increased within-community variability of exposure to vehicle-related pollutants. PM-associated exposures were influenced more by meteorologically transported pollutants and local non-mobile source emissions than by LMSE. The overall within-community variability of personal exposures was highest for NO₂ (±20–40%), followed by EC (±17–27%), PM₁₀ (±15–25%), PM_2.5 (±15–20%), and CO (±9–14%). Between-community exposure differences were affected by community location, traffic density, and locations of residences and schools in each community. Proper siting of air monitoring stations relative to emission sources is important to capture community mean exposures.     

Air Quality Impacts of Distributed Energy Resources Implemented in the Northeastern United States

Abstract

Emissions from the potential installation of distributed energy resources (DER) in the place of current utility-scale power generators have been introduced into an emissions inventory of the northeastern United States. A methodology for predicting future market penetration of DER that considers economics and emission factors was used to estimate the most likely implementation of DER. The methodology results in spatially and temporally resolved emission profiles of criteria pollutants that are subsequently introduced into a detailed atmospheric chemistry and transport model of the region. The DER technology determined by the methodology includes 62% reciprocating engines, 34% gas turbines, and 4% fuel cells and other emerging technologies. The introduction of DER leads to retirement of 2625 MW of existing power plants for which emissions are removed from the inventory. The air quality model predicts maximum differences in air pollutant concentrations that are located downwind from the central power plants that were removed from the domain. Maximum decreases in hourly peak ozone concentrations due to DER use are 10 ppb and are located over the state of New Jersey. Maximum decreases in 24-hr average fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations reach 3 μg/m3 and are located off the coast of New Jersey and New York. The main contribution to decreased PM_2.5 is the reduction of sulfate levels due to significant reductions in direct emissions of sulfur oxides (SO_x) from the DER compared with the central power plants removed. The scenario presented here represents an accelerated DER penetration case with aggressive emission reductions due to removal of highly emitting power plants. Such scenario provides an upper bound for air quality benefits of DER implementation scenarios.