Overview and definition of risk: Its assessment and management

Risk assessment includes both risk estimation (identifying hazards and estimating their outcomes and probabilities) and risk evaluation (determining the significance or value of risks to those concerned with or affected by the decision). Risk estimation is about situations, and risk evaluation about the effect on people. Few situations are absolutely safe. Risks need to be estimated, and for many kinds of risk (e.g., exposures to potentially toxic substances or to potentially catastrophic situations) an expert view has to be formed, which must take account of associated uncertainties. Different sections of the public perceive risk in different ways, and regard some risks more seriously than the expert estimates. Thus studies of risk perception form a further input into the decision-making process. Another input is the benefit of the activity. A regulatory framework consistent with the reality of risk estimation has been proposed. Since risks and benefits fall on different parts of the community, the decision process is essentially political, though it must be informed scientifically. How the decision is taken will depend on national governmental practices.     

Autonomous adaptation to riverine flooding in Satkhira District,Bangladesh: implications for adaptation planning

Systematic understanding of adaptation measures utilised by households in developing countries is needed to identify the constraints they face, and the external interventions or adaptation planning needed to overcome them. Understanding of autonomous household adaptation patterns remains underdeveloped. In particular, little is known regarding whether households are implementing incremental or transformational adaptation measures as well as the implications of this for adaptation planning. We demonstrate the suitability of the risk hazard approach for understanding autonomous household adaptation patterns and discuss the implications for planned adaptation. To achieve this, we use an in-depth village case study from an area of Bangladesh particularly vulnerable to climate change, using qualitative semi-structured household interviews as primary material. We find that the risk hazard approach is ideal for exploring autonomous adaptations because of its capacity for understanding how households respond to livelihood risk, and what resources are required for it to be most effective. However, the risk hazard approach overlooks equity and fairness considerations need to be integrated due to the insufficient emphasis on these concerns.

     

Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks

There is growing demand among stakeholders across public and private institutions for spatially-explicit information regarding vulnerability to climate change at the local scale. However, the challenges associated with mapping the geography of climate change vulnerability are non-trivial, both conceptually and technically, suggesting the need for more critical evaluation of this practice. Here, we review climate change vulnerability mapping in the context of four key questions that are fundamental to assessment design. First, what are the goals of the assessment? A review of published assessments yields a range of objective statements that emphasize problem orientation or decision-making about adaptation actions. Second, how is the assessment of vulnerability framed? Assessments vary with respect to what values are assessed (vulnerability of what) and the underlying determinants of vulnerability that are considered (vulnerability to what). The selected frame ultimately influences perceptions of the primary driving forces of vulnerability as well as preferences regarding management alternatives. Third, what are the technical methods by which an assessment is conducted? The integration of vulnerability determinants into a common map remains an emergent and subjective practice associated with a number of methodological challenges. Fourth, who participates in the assessment and how will it be used to facilitate change? Assessments are often conducted under the auspices of benefiting stakeholders, yet many lack direct engagement with stakeholders. Each of these questions is reviewed in turn by drawing on an illustrative set of 45 vulnerability mapping studies appearing in the literature. A number of pathways for placing vulnerability mapping on a more robust footing are also identified.     

An examination of ecological risk assessment and management practices

Ecological risk assessment has grown and evolved since the 1980s, as have new challenges (e.g. global climate change, loss of habitat and biodiversity and the effects of multiple anthropogenic chemicals on ecological systems) that need to be factored into the risk assessment processes. There is also an on-going shift from evaluating adverse health impacts on particular, often small scale, environments to undertaking more complex ecological assessments of whole populations and communities across ecologically meaningful landscapes. These trends are generating an increased demand for much more complex ecological assessments, making it increasingly clear that to achieve its potential as a management tool, methods must be developed to apply ecological risk assessment to larger and more complex scales. This paper reviews the development of the ecological risk assessment paradigm in the United States, identifies ways it is being applied and adapted in other countries, explores future research needs and practice improvements, and examines current issues that need to be considered in taking forward the scientific development of ecological risk assessment as a useful environmental management tool.     

Climate change adaptation and sustainable regional development: a case study for the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

Located in a relatively dry region and characterized by mainly sandy soils, the German Federal State of Brandenburg (surrounding the capital city of Berlin) is especially vulnerable to climate change impacts (e.g., summer droughts) and cascading effects on ecological systems (e.g., decreasing ground water tables, water stress, fire risk, productivity losses) with socioeconomic implications. Furthermore, a complex interplay of unemployment, rural exodus, and an aging population challenges this structurally weak region. We discuss adaptation measures that are either implemented or planned, as well as research into adaptation strategies to climate change for the sectors forestry, agriculture, and water management as well as in nature conservation in light of socioeconomic and ecological challenges and benefits. In doing so, we adopt a systemic view of Brandenburg where the sectors discussed are seen as subsystems embedded in a larger regional system. This at least partially holarchical approach enables the identification of conflicts between adaptation measures, but also of synergies among the sectors that pertain to successful adaptation to climate change. The insights gained ultimately highlight the need for cross-sectoral, adaptive management practices that jointly target a sustainable regional development.     

Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area,The Netherlands: enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk communication affects citizens’ risk perceptions and responses. The study is situated in a delta area with substantial geographic variations in the occurrence and potential impact of flood risk, which has led to initiatives to make the area more “climate proof.” We developed a research model that examines individual differences in processing information about climate change related flood risk, based on the postulate that individuals often make an implicit trade-off between motivation to know “what is real” and motivation to maintain prior beliefs. A field experiment, embedded in a survey (n = 1887), sought to test out how the participants responded to risk frames in which a story on flood was either or not combined with climate change information. The results show that it was possible to increase the participants’ local climate risk perception in combination with increased motivation for flood damage prevention, despite a certain level of climate change skepticism. A general implication of our study is that relevant and diagnostic information about local climate-related flood risks can stimulate citizens’ need to know “what’s real” and their willingness to take responsibility for preparedness.     

重庆地票制度风险评估研究

地票制度风险评估能够有效规避、减小风险,保证地票制度安全运行。采用DSP制度风险研究技术体系识别并评价重庆地票制度风险影响因素,再采用综合评价模型对地票制度风险进行评估。结果表明:①地票制度风险因素有5个,分别为耕地保护风险、国家宏观调控的风险、房地产市场冲击风险、统筹城乡的风险和农民权益保护的风险;②地票制度风险准则层中5个风险的相对严重程度依次为农民权益保护的风险、耕地保护风险、国家宏观调控的风险、房地产市场冲击风险和统筹城乡风险,指标层中农村宅基地社会保障未充分考虑的风险、农民复垦的主体地位未得到充分体现的风险、耕地总量动态平衡的风险、地票落地区农民权益未得到充分保障的风险和国家计划指标的冲击风险这5个风险比较大;③地票制度系统风险值为0.38,系统风险较低,风险处于可控状态。     

Community vulnerability and resilience in disaster risk reduction: an example from Phojal Nalla,Himachal Pradesh,India

International Disaster Risk Reduction Frameworks and Indian Plans advocate shared responsibility for reducing disaster risk, in which community vulnerability and resilience conditions are central. This paper presents a case study from the Indian Himalaya (Kullu District) of community vulnerability and resilience conditions following damaging floods, primarily the 1994 Phojal Nalla flood, through the concepts of community heritage and capital. Data were collected in the period 2013–2016, using semi-structured interviews (n?=?129), village reconnaissance and archival/contemporary data searches. The connections between heritage, capital, vulnerability and resilience are complex, but results demonstrate ‘knowledge’ is the principal driver of resilience conditions, via facets of heritage (e.g. religious infrastructure and activities, traditional architectural vernacular, and multi-generational attachments to place) and capital (e.g. income diversification, access to communication technologies, societal welfare measures and positive interactions with water). Persisting vulnerabilities stem from differential access to and implementation of best practice knowledge, governed by social, economic and political conditions. Further improvements in risk reduction require greater consideration of the following: (1) the integration of community local knowledge into the overall disaster management process; (2) the opportunities offered by mobile phone and other technologies for generating and sharing knowledge across society; and (3) the value of under-utilised knowledge of past disaster events, assembled from a systematic evaluation of oral, documentary and landscape evidence, to risk reduction.     

The influence of socioeconomic, environmental, and demographic factors on municipality-scale land-cover change in Mexico

Land-cover change is the result of complex multi-scale interactions between socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors. Demographic change, in particular, is thought to be a major driver of forest change. Most studies have evaluated these interactions at the regional or the national level, but few studies have evaluated these dynamics across multiple spatial scales within a country. In this study, we evaluated the effect of demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables on land-cover change between 2001 and 2010 for all Mexican municipalities (n?=?2,443) as well as by biome (n?=?4). We used a land-cover classification based on 250-m MODIS data to examine the change in cover classes (i.e., woody, mixed woody, and agriculture/herbaceous vegetation). We evaluated the trends of land-cover change and identified the major factors correlated with woody vegetation change in Mexico. At the national scale, the variation in woody vegetation was best explained by environmental variables, particularly precipitation; municipalities where woody cover increased tended to be in areas with low average annual precipitation (i.e., desert and dry forest biomes). Demographic variables did not contribute much to the model at the national scale. Elevation, temperature, and population density explained the change in woody cover when municipalities were grouped by biome (i.e., moist forest, dry forest, coniferous forest, and deserts). Land-cover change at the biome level showed two main trends: (1) the tropical moist biome lost woody vegetation to agriculture and herbaceous vegetation, and (2) the desert biome increased in woody vegetation within more open-canopy shrublands.     

Visitor Proficiency Profiling and Risk Communication at a National Park

While cognitive heuristics may produce successful, efficient outcomes, they can also introduce predictable biases that may be unavoidable even for seasoned experts. This study connects the concept of “professional intuition” to the practice of strategic communication, suggesting that people may rely on heuristics to profile an audience. These judgments, in turn, influence crafting of communication to meet the audiences’ assumed needs, the defining element of an audience-centered approach. Using interview and observational data, this study examines how national park staff use heuristic cues to evaluate visitors during face-to-face interactions. The assessments employees make, in turn, influence whether they encourage or discourage visitors from participating in inherently risky recreational activities. This visitor proficiency profiling, together with the strategic communication strategies employed, extends audience-centered communication to include both informal messages as well as individuals not necessarily trained as risk communicators. Both applied and theoretical implications of this research are considered.     

Drivers for Corporate Environmental Responsibility (CER)

There is a limited body of research into what drives some major companies to become aware of their environmental responsibility, what drives some to develop policies, and for an even smaller number of companies, what drives them to act on these policies and actually change their practices to become more environmentally responsible. This paper draws on part of the research conducted for a PhD, and looks at what a selection of senior business leaders from major Australian and international companies, as well as key academics, corporate analysts and environmentalists believe are the major drivers for corporate environmental responsibility (CER). While the key finding, namely that government legislation or the threat of legislation, is the number one driver, came as no surprise and concurs with findings of other studies (Emtairah et al.: 2002, Who Creates the Market for Green Products? An Analysis of the Role of Different Actors in Relation to Supply and Demand of Green Products, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Stockholm; Faruk: 2002, The Ashridge Journal; Husted: 2003, Environmental Science &; Policy 2, 61–74), what was a surprise was the level of support from business leaders for more government intervention in the form of policies, including legislative, to encourage or force greater CER.     

Risk-evaluation of Hi-tech Enterprise in the Process of Approaching Global Market

In the high technology industry, small and medium sized technology enterprises (SMSTEs) play a pivotal role in advancing the whole industry. To achieve sustainable development, they need to extend their scope of business activities beyond a national view and exploit international market actively to meet international competitions that increase quickly in the form of allocating resources within the scope of the world. However, the SMSTEs are also facing risks associated with themselves during the process of exploiting international market owing to their own restrictions, so what they should do is to consider risk evaluations in exploiting the international market.     

Ventilation requirements in occupied spaces during smoking and nonsmoking occupancy

Ventilation requirements in occupied spaces have traditionally derived largely from odor control. The requirements have rested on the notion that an environment that seems subjectively acceptable to a visitor will in fact be healthful and comfortable for both visitor and occupant alike. Ventilation requirements have derived secondarily from criterion concentrations of notable contaminants (e.g., carbon dioxide). The present investigation looked again at both sensory (odor, irritation) and physical criteria of acceptability, paying particular attention to the difference between smoking and nonsmoking occupancy in a well-controlled environmental chamber. More than 200 persons (visitors) made judgments of odor intensity and acceptability under various conditions of occupancy (up to 12 nonsmoking occupants; a temperature of up to 25.5°C; up to 16 cigarettes smoked per hour). The results implied that under nonsmoking conditions and moderate humidity only about 7.5 cfm (3.8 L sec⁻¹) of fresh air per occupant sufficed to satisfy visitors, but that under smoking conditions at least 5 times as much fresh air is necessary. Our estimate of ventilation requirements for smoking were derived in part from measurements of carbon monoxide and total suspended particulate (TSP) mass concentration. Levels of TSP achieved during realistic smoking and ventilation rates exceeded levels deemed acceptable outdoors. Surfaces in the chamber played an important role in the elimination of particles, presumably via adsorption. Use of an electrostatic precipitator could keep TSP levels under control. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether control of TSP will eliminate the need for enormous ventilation for odor control during smoking occupancy.     

Converting Toxic Equivalents (TEQ) of dioxins and dioxin-like compounds in fish from one Toxic Equivalency Factor (TEF) scheme to another

Toxic Equivalency Factors (TEFs) are an essential part of the Toxic Equivalent (TEQ) concept and have evolved for dioxins/dioxin-like compounds over the last two and half decades. Therefore, it is difficult to compare past and current TEQs that are reported using different TEFs without explicitly mentioning underlying congener concentrations. Using what likely is the largest known dioxin/furan (PCDD/F) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl (dl-PCB or DLP) fish database, here we present regression models that can facilitate conversion of a fish TEQ from an old to a newer TEF scheme. The results show that the mammalian PCDD/F-TEQ based on the latest TEF(WHO-05) is about 7.5% lower than that based on TEF(WHO-98). The mammalian DLP-TEQ(WHO-05) is on average 25-26% lower than almost identical DLP-TEQ(WHO-94) and DLP-TEQ(WHO-98). Total-TEQ(WHO-05) is on average 22% lower than Total-TEQ(WHO-98). According to the current toxicological standards for dioxins/furans, all previous major TEF schemes except TEF(Germany-85) and TEF(USEPA-87) were conservative (i.e., higher) in estimating TEQs. The major (> 75%) contribution to PCDD/F-TEQ(WHO-05) is from 2,3,7,8-TCDD (33%), 1,2,3,7,8-PCDD (26%), 2,3,7,8-TCDF (10%), and 2,3,4,7,8-PCDF (9%). The DLP-TEQ(WHO-05) is dominated by PCB-126 which on average contributes about 88%. The DLP-TEQ generally contribute > 70% of Total-TEQ. When reporting TEQs, we recommend that the underlying congener specific concentrations are presented, TEF scheme used is clearly stated, names of compounds included are explicitly expressed, and TEQs are identified accordingly (e.g., DLP-TEQ, PCDD/F-TEQ, Total-TEQ).     

A cultural practice of drinking realgar wine leading to elevated urinary arsenic and its potential health risk

Toasting friends and family with realgar wines and painting children's foreheads and limbs with the leftover realgar/alcohol slurries is an important customary ritual during the Dragon Boat Festival (DBF); a Chinese national holiday and ancient feast day celebrated throughout Asia. Realgar is an arsenic sulfide mineral, and source of highly toxic inorganic arsenic. Despite the long history of realgar use during the DBF, associated risk to human health by arsenic ingestion or percutaneous adsorption is unknown. To address this urine samples were collected from a cohort of volunteers who were partaking in the DBF festivities. The total concentration of arsenic in the wine consumed was 70 mg L?1 with all the arsenic found to be inorganic. Total arsenic concentrations in adult urine reached a maximum of ca. 550 μg L?1 (mean 220.2 μg L?1) after 16 h post-ingestion of realgar wine, while face painting caused arsenic levels in children's urine to soar to 100 μg L?1 (mean 85.3 μg L?1) 40 h after the initial paint application. The average concentration of inorganic arsenic in the urine of realgar wine drinkers on average doubled 16 h after drinking, although this was not permanent and levels subsided after 28 h. As would be expected in young children, the proportions of organic arsenic in the urine remained high throughout the 88-h monitoring period. However, even when arsenic concentrations in the urine peaked at 40 h after paint application, concentrations in the urine only declined slightly thereafter, suggesting pronounced longer term dermal accumulation and penetration of arsenic. Drinking wines blended with realgar or using realgar based paints on children does result in the significant absorption of arsenic and therefore presents a potentially serious and currently unquantified health risk.     

基于RRM的市级土地利用总体规划生态风险评价

以乐山市土地利用总体规划为研究对象,应用相对风险模型(Relative Risk Model,RRM),对其生态风险进行了分析和评价。评价结果表明,在规划执行期间,全市生态风险总体呈下降趋势,但在区域内的空间分布上却具有不平衡性,局部地区的生态环境会出现波动甚至恶化;作物种植、交通运输和人口负荷是规划生态风险的3个最主要来源;而林地和牧草地在所有生境类型中所受到的生态压力最大;对于生态风险结果,主要表现为区域生态系统及其组分在功能与结构上的损害。研究结果能够为乐山市土地资源开发利用和规划成果的科学决策提供理论依据,同时具有开展区域生态风险防控与管理的参考价值。     

The use of green criteria in the public procurement of food products and catering services: a review of EU schemes

Green Public Procurement (GPP) is currently being used to influence the market to shift to a supply of goods and services to the public sector that have a reduced environmental impact. The food service sector plays a major role in the purchases made by the public sector and due to that relevance deserves attention. The GPP schemes reviewed were those that provide details of the specific environmental criteria used (or recommended) for public tendering of food products and catering services provision. The set of GPP schemes apply to distinct geographical zones within the EU, including national level (e.g. Italy), regional level (e.g. Barcelona) and also local level, as in the case of cities (e.g. Copenhagen) or schools (e.g. a school in Pisa, Italy). The criteria set covers services provision to schools, health and social care, higher education, government office canteens, sports and leisure arenas, prisons and defence services (e.g. army). European and worldwide GPP criteria were not covered by the review made. This exploratory study comprehends a total of 23 GPP schemes. This sample includes eight national schemes, three regional schemes and ten local schemes. The review focused on the scope, for the sector of applicability (e.g. education, healthcare) of the GPP set of criteria and for the type of food products covered. Moreover, this paper analyses the type of GPP criteria in use and how the environmental criteria cover the distinct life cycle stages of the whole food supply chain. Findings from the analysis show that for the majority of schemes the scope of criteria is simultaneously the provision of food products and catering services. Moreover, cities, municipalities and counties are the main public authorities reporting procurement activities for the education sector while national GPP activities are applicable for multiple sectors of activity. The main food products covered by the criteria are fruits and vegetables, dairy products, fish and seafood and meat. Finally, the findings show that the set of criteria from the schemes cover widely the life cycle stages of the food supply chain. The results allowed for a first identification of current practices in the use of GPP criteria within public purchasing of food products and catering services in Europe by national, regional or local governments.     

Development and use of water quality criteria and standards in the United States

Water quality criteria, as a means of distinguishing "good" water from "bad" water, have been employed for over 150 years. During the 1940s and 1950s, the formulation of water quality criteria and their role in water quality management were hotly debated in the United States as each state formulated its own approach to water pollution control. In 1965, when the federal government assumed control of water quality management in the US, a single, national approach to the formulation and use of criteria had to be selected and implemented nationwide. The purpose of this paper is to briefly review the history of criteria as a basis for water quality management in the US; note the different water quality management philosophies used by states prior to 1965; and summarize the relationship of criteria to monitoring over the past 30 years. Standards, as legal instruments, are developed for a specific water body by designating a use of the water (society value) and the criteria necessary to protect the use (a scientific finding). Standard violation, as a concept, tends to remain as a single-sample exercise (i.e., the sample measurement is either above or below the standard). Increasingly, however, there is a demand to classify large bodies of water (e.g., lake, river segment, or aquifer), over a set time period, such as a day, year, or decade, as either in compliance or in violation of water quality standards. No peer-reviewed, standardized method for computing standard "violations" has been widely accepted for this purpose. The paper ends with a call to develop such methods, if water quality managers must produce standard violation information (infer sample results) over time and space. Electronic Publication     

Global progress in climate change adaptation policies and its implication for China

This paper reviews the progress in climate change adaptation (CCA) policies both under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and in major regions and countries, including the EU and its major member countries, the influential developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the emerging economies and the least developed countries (LDCs). The progress made in China in CCA policies is also reviewed and compared with that in other countries. Finally, good international practices are proposed for China’s policy development. It is found that adaptation has been given the same priority as mitigation since the twenty-first century with regard to climate change-related actions. The topics related to adaptation in the international climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC have evolved from mechanisms for finance and technology development and transfer exclusively in the early stages to implementation of practical adaptation programs and actions. Since 2006, major developed and developing countries have frequently set forward specific CCA policies or general climate change policies involving adaptation in the form of laws, frameworks, strategies, and plans. The LDCs have also been working on National Adaptation Programmes of Action and subsequent National Adaptation Plans with the support from the financial mechanisms under the UNFCCC. Therefore, globally, it has become a common practice to develop national or regional policies to plan and guide CCA actions. China has established climate change policies involving adaptation at the national, regional, and sectorial levels since 2007. However, these policies have strong limitations in their knowledge base, strategic positioning, contents, and implementation mechanisms, e.g. lack of a sound knowledge base, an international perspective, clear responsibilities for policy implementation, and appropriate monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. It is recommended that China should further strengthen its technical capabilities in climate change projections as well as impact, vulnerability, and risk assessment, and develop methodologies and techniques for the preparation, impact assessment and implementation of CCA policies. Furthermore, future CCA strategies or plans should be developed with an emphasis on China’s vision and strategic position on the world stage.