Inf luence of Season and a Sympatric Congener on Habitat Use by Stephens' Kangaroo Rat

We examined habitat use by the endangered Stephens' kangaroo rat ( Dipodomys stephensi) in different seasons and assessed whether this may be influenced by a sympatric congener, the Pacific kangaroo rat (Dipodomys agilis). Trapping on three plots over 2 years revealed these species were rarely captured at the same trap stations. Spatial segregation was highly significant when both species were at high density. The spatial distribution of these species was temporally stable where both species were relatively abundant, but where D. agilis was relatively uncommon the distribution of D. stephensi varied from one census to another. The abundance of three microhabitats (grass, debris, and bare ground) followed a regular seasonal pattern of variation that was consistent across 2 years of substantially different rainfall. A canonical discriminant analysis showed that the five quantified microhabitats (those above and bush and rock cover) provided highly significant discrimination between the trap stations occupied by the two species. Dipodomys stephensi was associated with trap stations where grass cover and bare ground were abundant but where bush and rock were uncommon. Dipodomys agilis was associated with stations that had large amounts of bare ground and average abundances of bush and rock cover. The spatial segregation of these species appears to be mediated by habitat preferences; D. stephensi prefers grassland and D. agilis prefers sage scrub. This suggests that habitat management for D. stephensi should include (1) controlling the spread of shrubs into grassland and (2) creating dispersal corridors of open habitat to link areas of suitable habitat where none presently exist. Each of these options may be needed to maintain viable populations in all reserves designated for the conservation of D. stephensi.     

Rapid assessment of postfire plant invasions in coniferous forests of the western United States.

Fire is a natural part of most forest ecosystems in the western United States, but its effects on nonnative plant invasion have only recently been studied. Also, forest managers are engaging in fuel reduction projects to lessen fire severity, often without considering potential negative ecological consequences such as nonnative plant species introductions. Increased availability of light, nutrients, and bare ground have all been associated with high-severity fires and fuel treatments and are known to aid in the establishment of nonnative plant species. We use vegetation and environmental data collected after wildfires at seven sites in coniferous forests in the western United States to study responses of nonnative plants to wildfire. We compared burned vs. unburned plots and plots treated with mechanical thinning and/or prescribed burning vs. untreated plots for nonnative plant species richness and cover and used correlation analyses to infer the effect of abiotic site conditions on invasibility. Wildfire was responsible for significant increases in nonnative species richness and cover, and a significant decrease in native cover. Mechanical thinning and prescribed fire fuel treatments were associated with significant changes in plant species composition at some sites. Treatment effects across sites were minimal and inconclusive due to significant site and site x treatment interaction effects caused by variation between sites including differences in treatment and fire severities and initial conditions (e.g., nonnative species sources). We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to determine what combinations of environmental variables best explained patterns of nonnative plant species richness and cover. Variables related to fire severity, soil nutrients, and elevation explained most of the variation in species composition. Nonnative species were generally associated with sites with higher fire severity, elevation, percentage of bare ground, and lower soil nutrient levels and lower canopy cover. Early assessments of postfire stand conditions can guide rapid responses to nonnative plant invasions.     

Inferring Metapopulation Dynamics from Patch-Level Incidence of Florida Scrub Plants

Spatial structure and dynamics of multiple populations may explain species distribution patterns in patchy communities with heterogeneous disturbance regimes, especially when species have poor dispersal. The endemic-rich Florida (U.S.A.) rosemary scrub occupies about 4% of the west portion of Archbold Biological Station and occurs scattered within a matrix of less xeric vegetation. Longer fire-return times and higher frequency of open patches in rosemary scrub provide favorable habitat for many plant species. Occupancy of 123 species of vascular plants and ground lichens in 89 patches was determined by repeated site surveys. About two-thirds of the species occurring at more than 14 patches had a significant logistic regression of presence on time-since-fire, patch size, patch isolation, or their interactions. Species with presence related to the interaction between patch isolation and patch size were primarily herbs and small shrubs specializing in rosemary scrub. These results suggest the importance of spatial characteristics of the landscape for population turnover of these species. An incidence-based metapopulation model was used to predict extinction and colonization probabilities of those species with presence in rosemary scrub patches related to the studied spatial variables. This is the first attempt to apply incidence-based metapopulation models to plants. The results showed stronger effects of patch size and patch isolation on extinction probabilities of herbs than on those of woody species. Because of their effect on spatial heterogeneity and habitat availability, fire suppression and habitat destruction may decrease persistence probabilities for these rosemary scrub specialists, many of which are endangered species.     

Neighborhood phylodiversity affects plant performance

Facilitation and competition are ecological interactions that are crucial for the organization of plant communities. Facilitative interactions tend to occur among distantly related species, while the strength of competition tends to decrease with phylogenetic distance. The balance between both types of interactions will ultimately determine the specific composition of multispecies associations. Although multispecies patches are the arena in which coexistence develops among different phylogenetic groups within communities, the specific processes that occur across life stages have not been explored. Here we study how different species, in composing discrete patches in central Mexico, exert competitive or facilitative effects on seeds and seedlings. We relate these interactions to phylogenetic relationships among nurse species and beneficiary species, and among members of the patches. Survivorship and growth rates of the columnar cactus Neobuxbaumia mezcalaensis were highly positively related to increasing phylogenetic distance to different nurse species, to the presence of related species in patches, and to mean phylogenetic distances to the rest of the species in the patch. Each of these three elements influenced N. mezcalaensis differently, with different nurse species varying substantially in their early effects on emergence, and the nearest relatives and species composition of patches varying in their late effects on survival and growth. Our results emphasize that evolutionary relationships among co-occurring species in vegetation clumps exert direct and indirect effects on plants, affecting individual performance and species coexistence.     

The oasis effect: response of birds to exurban development in a southwestern savanna

Ranches are being converted to exurban housing developments in the southwestern United States, with potentially significant but little-studied impacts on biological diversity. We counted birds in grasslands and savannas in southeastern Arizona that were grazed by livestock, embedded in low-density exurban housing developments, or both, or neither. Species richness and bird abundance were higher in exurban neighborhoods than in undeveloped landscapes, independent of livestock grazing. The positive response to development was particularly evident among doves, quail, hummingbirds, aerial insectivores, and some but not all ground-foraging sparrows. Effects of livestock grazing were comparatively minor and mostly involved birds with requirements for tall ground cover or the lack of it. The average rank correlation between counts of individual species and housing density was positive across all transects. However, this relationship disappeared among the exurban transects alone, and bird species richness on the exurban transects was negatively correlated with the number of homes nearby. These results suggest that the positive influence of exurban development on avian abundance and variety was greatest at the lowest housing densities. We attribute the attraction of many birds to exurban development to an oasis effect, in which resources otherwise scarce in arid southwestern environments (shade, nectar, nest sites, and especially water) are relatively abundant around exurban home sites. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that exurban home sites represented resource supply points inside birds' home ranges otherwise consisting mostly of natural vegetation.     

The impact of invasive grasses on the population growth of Anemone patens, a long-lived native forb

Negative impacts of invasive plants on natives have been well documented, but much less is known about whether invasive plants can cause population level declines. We used demographic models to investigate the effects of two invasive grasses on the demography and population growth of Anemone patens, a long-lived native perennial of North American grasslands. Demographic data of A. patens growing in patches characterized by Bromus inermis, Poa pratensis, or native grasses were used to parameterize integral projection models. Models based on both average conditions and those allowing for environmental stochasticity indicate that A. patens is slowly increasing in patches of native grass (lambda = 1.02) and declining in patches of invasive grasses, particularly those dominated by B. inermis (lambda = 0.93). Extinction probabilities indicate that A. patens should persist in native grass patches, but has a much higher probability of extinction in Bromus patches compared to Poa patches. While sensitivity analyses showed that survival had the biggest effect on population growth rates in all habitats, results of a Life Table Response Experiment (LTRE) revealed that slower individual growth rates in patches of invasive grasses contributed the most to the observed reduction in population growth. These results suggest that invasive grasses may cause slow declines in A. patens, despite short-term coexistence, and that controlling B. inermis only would not be sufficient to ensure A. patens persistence.     

Determinants of population persistence and abundance of terrestrial and arboreal vertebrates stranded in tropical forest land-bridge islands

Megadams are among the key modern drivers of habitat and biodiversity loss in emerging economies. The Balbina Hydroelectric Dam of Central Brazilian Amazonia inundated 312,900 ha of primary forests and created approximately 3500 variable-sized islands that still harbor vertebrate populations after nearly 3 decades after isolation. We estimated the species richness, abundance, biomass, composition, and group size of medium- to large-bodied forest vertebrates in response to patch, landscape, and habitat-quality metrics across 37 islands and 3 continuous forest sites throughout the Balbina archipelago. We conducted 1168 km of diurnal censuses and had 12,420 camera-trapping days along 81 transects with 207 camera stations. We determined the number of individuals (or groups) detected per 10 km walked and the number of independent photographs per 10 camera-trapping days, respectively, for each species. We recorded 34 species, and patch area was the most significant predictor of vertebrate population relative abundance and aggregate biomass. The maximum group size of several group-living species was consistently larger on large islands and in continuous patches than on small islands. Most vertebrate populations were extirpated after inundation. Remaining populations are unlikely to survive further ecological disruptions. If all vertebrate species were once widely distributed before inundation, we estimated that approximately 75% of all individual vertebrates were lost from all 3546 islands and 7.4% of the animals in all persisting insular populations are highly likely to be extirpated. Our results demonstrate that population abundance estimates should be factored into predictions of community disassembly on small islands to robustly predict biodiversity outcomes. Given the rapidly escalating hydropower infrastructure projects in developing counties, we suggest that faunal abundance and biomass estimates be considered in environmental impact assessments and large strictly protected reserves be established to minimize detrimental effects of dams on biodiversity. Conserving large tracts of continuous forests represents the most critical conservation measure to ensure that animal populations can persist at natural densities in Amazonian forests.     

Minimum area requirements for an at‐risk butterfly based on movement and demography

Determining the minimum area required to sustain populations has a long history in theoretical and conservation biology. Correlative approaches are often used to estimate minimum area requirements (MARs) based on relationships between area and the population size required for persistence or between species’ traits and distribution patterns across landscapes. Mechanistic approaches to estimating MAR facilitate prediction across space and time but are few. We used a mechanistic MAR model to determine the critical minimum patch size (CMP) for the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton), a locally abundant species in decline along its southern range, and sister to several federally listed species. Our CMP is based on principles of diffusion, where individuals in smaller patches encounter edges and leave with higher probability than those in larger patches, potentially before reproducing. We estimated a CMP for the Baltimore checkerspot of 0.7–1.5 ha, in accordance with trait‐based MAR estimates. The diffusion rate on which we based this CMP was broadly similar when estimated at the landscape scale (comparing flight path vs. capture‐mark‐recapture data), and the estimated population growth rate was consistent with observed site trends. Our mechanistic approach to estimating MAR is appropriate for species whose movement follows a correlated random walk and may be useful where landscape‐scale distributions are difficult to assess, but demographic and movement data are obtainable from a single site or the literature. Just as simple estimates of lambda are often used to assess population viability, the principles of diffusion and CMP could provide a starting place for estimating MAR for conservation.     

Vegetation development influenced by grazing in the coastal dunes near The Hague, The Netherlands

In 1990, grazing was introduced in a section of Meijendel, a coastal sand dune system near The Hague, The Netherlands. After five years an evaluation was made of the effects of grazing on vegetation development. Three transects were established, two in grazed areas and one in an ungrazed area. Field survey data were classified by means of TWIN-SPAN, ordinated with Detrended Correspondence Analysis and the resulting vegetation types interpreted according to Westhoff & den Held (1969). All associations were found in both the grazed and the ungrazed areas, but at the subassociation and variant level some communities appeared to be restricted to the grazed area. These variants were five grassland variants characterized by disturbance indicators such asSenecio sylvaticus andCynoglossum officinale. The total number of plant species in the 19 permanent plots, which had been observed to have been decreasing since 1960, showed a considerable increase after the introduction of horses and cows in 1990. A marked decrease in the cover ofCalamagrostis epigejos andCarex arenaria since 1990 was evident, while in some plots species such asRibes rubrum andViburnum opulus increased considerably. A series of false-colour aerial photographs were used to compare vegetation structure in the three transects between 1990 and 1995. In the grazed area the tall grass vegetation had almost totally disappeared, whereas the areas of open sand. sand with moss and lichens, and low grass vegetation had increased and the pattern had become more fine-grained. In the ungrazed area the area covered by low grass vegetation had increased at the expense of the area of sand with moss and lichens and the pattern had become more coarse-grained.     

Seed dispersal of desert annuals

We quantified seed dispersal in a guild of Sonoran Desert winter desert annuals at a protected natural field site in Tucson, Arizona, USA. Seed production was suppressed under shrub canopies, in the open areas between shrubs, or both by applying an herbicide prior to seed set in large, randomly assigned removal plots (10-30 m diameter). Seedlings were censused along transects crossing the reproductive suppression borders shortly after germination. Dispersal kernels were estimated for Pectocarya recurvata and Schismus barbatus from the change in seedling densities with distance from these borders via inverse modeling. Estimated dispersal distances were short, with most seeds traveling less than a meter. The adhesive seeds of P. recurvata went farther than the small S. barbatus seeds, which have no obvious dispersal adaptation. Seeds dispersed farther downslope than upslope and farther when dispersing into open areas than when dispersing into shrubs. Dispersal distances were short relative to the pattern of spatial heterogeneity created by the shrub and open space mosaic. This suggests that dispersal could contribute to local population buildup, possibly facilitating species coexistence. Overall, these results support the hypothesis that escape in time via delayed germination is likely to be more important for desert annuals than escape in space.     

Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

Comparison of remotely-sensed surveys vs. in situ plot-based assessments of sea grass condition in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor,New Jersey USA

With the increasing appreciation that sea grass habitats are in global decline, there is a great need to be able to efficiently and effectively assess and characterize the status and trends of sea grass in our coastal ecosystems. This paper examines the utility of remotely sensed vs. in situ plot-based monitoring using the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor (BB-LEH), New Jersey, USA estuarine system as a case study. Eelgrass (Zostera marina) is the dominant species, while widgeon grass (Ruppia maritima) is also common in lower salinity regions of the BB-LEH. Aerial imagery collected during the months of July and August 2009 was interpreted and mapped using object based image analysis techniques, similar to techniques used in the 2003 mapping survey of this system. Boat-based in situ monitoring data were collected concurrently with the aerial photography to assist the image interpretation and for an independent accuracy assessment. We compared the remotely-sensed mapping of sea grass cover change (in 2003 vs. 2009) vs. in situ plot-based monitoring conducted from 2004 through 2009. Comparison of the remotely-sensed vs. the in situ plot-change analysis suggests that the two methodologies had broadly similarly results, with the percent area showing declines in sea grass cover greater than those that exhibited increases. In conclusion, the two studies provide corroborating evidence that sea grass has declined in percent cover in the BB-LEH system during the decade of the 2000’s. While remotely-sensed surveys provide synoptic information for a “big picture” view on sea grass distribution, site specific in situ sampling is required to determine other aspects of sea grass status, e.g. above vs. below-ground biomass, blade length, shoot density, epiphytic loading, etc. Either method alone gives an incomplete picture. As demonstrated in this study, to fully characterize the spatial extent, health, and density of sea grass meadows across the entire estuary, combining remote sensing surveys concomitantly with comprehensive in situ assessment provides the most robust approach.     

Can initial intraspecific spatial aggregation increase multi-year coexistence by creating temporal priority?

Both intraspecific spatial aggregation and temporal priority effects have the potential to increase long-term species coexistence. Theory and models suggest that intraspecific aggregation can facilitate coexistence via limited dispersal or asymmetric interaction distances. During community assembly, intraspecific aggregation may also delay interactions between more and less competitive species, thus creating opportunities for priority effects to facilitate longer-term coexistence. Few empirical studies have tested predictions about aggregation and coexistence, especially in the context of community assembly or ecological restoration. We investigated (1) impacts of intraspecific aggregation on the assembly of eight-species communities over three years, (2) the scale dependence of these impacts, and (3) implications for California prairie restoration. We planted eight native species in each of 19, 5 m wide, octagonal plots. Species were either interspersed throughout the plot or aggregated into eight, 2.2-m(2), wedge-shaped, monospecific sectors. Over three years, species diversity declined more quickly in interspersed plots than in aggregated plots. Two species had higher cover or increased more in interspersed than aggregated plots and were identified as "aggressives." Four species had higher cover or increased more in aggregated than interspersed plots and were identified as "subordinates." Within aggregated plots, aggressive species expanded beyond the sector in which they were originally seeded. Cover of aggressive species increased faster and reached higher values in sectors that were adjacent to the originally planted sector, compared to nonadjacent sectors. Cover of aggressive species also increased more and faster near plot centers, compared to plot edges. Areas near plot centers were representative of smaller aggregation patches since species were planted closer to heterospecific neighbors. Two subordinate species maintained higher cover near plot edges than near plot centers. Moreover, two subordinate species maintained higher cover when seeded in sectors farther away from aggressive species. These results suggest that initial intraspecific aggregation can facilitate species coexistence for at least three years, and larger aggregation patches may be more effective than smaller ones in the face of dispersing dominants. The creation of temporal priority effects may represent an underappreciated pathway by which intraspecific aggregation can increase coexistence. Restorationists may be able to maintain more diverse communities by planting in a mosaic of monospecific patches.     

Paying the Extinction Debt in Southern Wisconsin Forest Understories

Abstract: The lack of long‐term baseline data restricts the ability to measure changes in biological diversity directly and to determine its cause. This hampers conservation efforts and limits testing of basic tenets of ecology and conservation biology. We used a historical baseline survey to track shifts in the abundance and distribution of 296 native understory species across 82 sites over 55 years in the fragmented forests of southern Wisconsin. We resurveyed stands first surveyed in the early 1950s to evaluate the influence of patch size and surrounding land cover on shifts in native plant richness and heterogeneity and to evaluate changes in the relative importance of local site conditions versus the surrounding landscape context as drivers of community composition and structure. Larger forests and those with more surrounding forest cover lost fewer species, were more likely to recruit new species, and had lower rates of homogenization than smaller forests in more fragmented landscapes. Nearby urbanization further reduced both alpha and beta understory diversity. Similarly, understory composition depended strongly on local site conditions in the original survey but only weakly reflected the surrounding landscape composition. By 2005, however, the relative importance of these factors had reversed such that the surrounding landscape structure is now a much better predictor of understory composition than are local site conditions. Collectively, these results strongly support the idea that larger intact habitat patches and landscapes better sustain native species diversity and demonstrate that humans play an increasingly important role in driving patterns of native species diversity and community composition.     

Impacts of Roads, Hunting, and Habitat Alteration on Nocturnal Mammals in African Rainforests

Abstract:  Nocturnal mammals are poorly studied in Central Africa, a region experiencing dramatic increases in logging, roads, and hunting activity. In the rainforests of southern Gabon, we used spotlighting surveys to estimate abundances of nocturnal mammal species and guilds at varying distances from forest roads and between hunted and unhunted treatments (comparing a 130-km² oil concession that was nearly free of hunting, with nearby areas outside the concession that had moderate hunting pressure). At each of 12 study sites that were evenly divided between hunted and unhunted areas, we established standardized 1-km transects along road verges and at 50, 300, and 600 m from the road. We then repeatedly surveyed mammals at each site during 2006. Hunting had few apparent effects on this assemblage. Nevertheless, the species richness and often the abundance of nocturnal primates, smaller ungulates, and carnivores were significantly depressed within approximately 30 m of roads. Scansorial rodents increased in abundance in hunted forests, possibly in response to habitat changes caused by logging or nearby swidden farming. In multiple-regression models many species and guilds were significantly influenced by forest-canopy and understory cover, both of which are altered by logging and by certain abiotic variables. In general, nocturnal species, many of which are arboreal or relatively small in size (<10 kg), were less strongly influenced by hunting and more strongly affected by human-induced changes in forest structure than were larger mammal species in our study area.     

Value of Small Patches in the Conservation of Plant-Species Diversity in Highly Fragmented Rainforest

Abstract:  We evaluated the importance of small (<5 ha) forest patches for the conservation of regional plant diversity in the tropical rainforest of Los Tuxtlas, Mexico. We analyzed the density of plant species (number of species per 0.1 ha) in 45 forest patches of different sizes (1–700 ha) in 3 landscapes with different deforestation levels (4, 11, and 24% forest cover). Most of the 364 species sampled (360 species, 99%) were native to the region, and only 4 (1%) were human-introduced species. Species density in the smallest patches was high and variable; the highest (84 species) and lowest (23 species) number of species were recorded in patches of up to 1.8 ha. Despite the small size of these patches, they contained diverse communities of native plants, including endangered and economically important species. The relationship between species density and area was significantly different among the landscapes, with a significant positive slope only in the landscape with the highest deforestation level. This indicates that species density in a patch of a given size may vary among landscapes that have different deforestation levels. Therefore, the conservation value of a patch depends on the total forest cover remaining in the landscape. Our findings revealed, however, that a great portion of regional plant diversity was located in very small forest patches (<5 ha), most of the species were restricted to only a few patches (41% of the species sampled were distributed in only 1–2 patches, and almost 70% were distributed in 5 patches) and each landscape conserved a unique plant assemblage. The conservation and restoration of small patches is therefore necessary to effectively preserve the plant diversity of this strongly deforested and unique Neotropical region.     

Soil-geomorphic heterogeneity governs patchy vegetation dynamics at an arid ecotone

Soil properties are well known to affect vegetation, but the role of soil heterogeneity in the patterning of vegetation dynamics is poorly documented. We asked whether the location of an ecotone separating grass-dominated and sparsely vegetated areas reflected only historical variation in degradation or was related to variation in inherent soil properties. We then asked whether changes in the cover and spatial organization of vegetated and bare patches assessed using repeat aerial photography reflected self-organizing dynamics unrelated to soil variation or the stable patterning of soil variation. We found that the present-day ecotone was related to a shift from more weakly to more strongly developed soils. Parts of the ecotone were stable over a 60-year period, but shifts between bare and vegetated states, as well as persistently vegetated and bare states, occurred largely in small (<40 m2) patches throughout the study area. The probability that patches were presently vegetated or bare, as well as the probability that vegetation persisted and/or established over the 60-year period, was negatively related to surface calcium carbonate and positively related to subsurface clay content. Thus, only a fraction of the landscape was susceptible to vegetation change, and the sparsely vegetated area probably featured a higher frequency of susceptible soil patches. Patch dynamics and self-organizing processes can be constrained by subtle (and often unrecognized) soil heterogeneity.     

Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species-energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients. Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during -50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naive estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to -0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (-0.04-0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future anticipated declines in M. lucifugus occurrence can be measured. The dynamic distribution modeling approach has broad applicability to regional bat monitoring efforts now underway in several countries and we suggest ways to improve and expand our grid-based monitoring program to gain robust insights into bat population status and trend across large portions of North America.     

Indices of Grassland Biodiversity in the Chihuahuan Desert Ecoregion Derived from Remote Sensing

Abstract: We used a relatively simple and direct remote-sensing approach to determine biodiversity values in arid ecosystems and thus identify potential conservation sites. We developed indices based on regression models between grass, shrub, litter, exposed-soil groundcover components, and Landsat thematic mapper satellite imagery reflectance values over a reference site in the northern Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico. This site supports low-disturbance desert grasslands that have been excluded from livestock grazing for 55 years and moderate-disturbance grasslands that have been under a continuous grazing regime for over 100 years. Greater richness and abundance of noninvasive and nonruderal plant species were associated with the low-disturbance grasslands that had lower shrub abundance, increased litter and grass cover, and lower exposed soil. Using the thematic mapper indices, we computed an additive grassland biodiversity index such that, as exposed soil and shrub values go down, litter and grass values go up, as does the biodiversity index. When the biodiversity index was applied to the reference-site landscape, grasslands previously identified for their high conservation value were detected. As a further test, we applied the indices to a site in Chihuahua, Mexico, that supports similar grasslands but for which there are few other data on condition and conservation values. The soil, grass, and shrub indices were moderately effective in describing the range of variation at the Mexico site, but the litter equation was not. Still, higher biodiversity value in terms of nonruderal plant diversity tended to correspond to higher grass cover and lower soil exposure and a higher overall biodiversity index. Some localized calibration with geologic substrate may be required along with an assessment of the temporal constraints, but generally the index shows promise for quickly and efficiently detecting desert grasslands of high biodiversity conservation value.     

Biogeography and decline of rare plants in New England: historical evidence and contemporary monitoring.

Detecting range shifts and contractions is critical for determining the conservation priority of rare and declining taxa. However, data on rare species occurrences frequently lack precise information on locations and habitats and may present a biased picture of biogeographic distributions and presumed habitat preferences. Herbarium or museum specimen data, which otherwise could be useful proxies for detecting temporal trends and spatial patterns in species distributions, pose particular challenges. Using data from herbaria and Natural Heritage Programs on numbers of occurrences within individual municipalities (towns, cities, or townships), we quantified temporal changes in the estimated distributions of 110 rare plant species in the six New England (USA) states. We used the partial Solow equation and a nonparametric test to estimate the probability of observing multiple absences (gaps in the collection record) if a given population was actually still extant. Bayes' Theorem was used to estimate the probability that occurrences were misclassified as extinct. Using the probabilities obtained from these three methods, we eliminated taxa with high probabilities of pseudo-absence (that would yield an inaccurate profile of species distributions), narrowing the set for final analysis to 71 taxa. We then expressed occurrences as centroids of town polygons and estimated current and historical range areas (extents of occurrence as defined by alpha-hulls inscribing occurrences), mean distances between occurrences, and latitudinal and longitudinal range boundaries. Using a geographic information system, we modeled first, second, and third circular standard deviational polygons around the mean center of the historical range. Examining the distribution of current occurrences within each standard deviational polygon, we asked whether ranges were collapsing to a center, expanding, fragmenting, or contracting to a margin of the former range. Extant ranges of the species were, on average, almost 67% smaller than their historical ranges, and distances among occurrences decreased. Five New England hotspots were observed to contain >35% of rare plant populations. Extant occurrences were more frequently marginalized at the periphery of the historical range than would be expected by chance. Coarse-grained data on current and historical occurrences can be used to examine large suites of species to prioritize taxa and sites for conservation.