Discussion of Population Modernization Theory and Actuality Analysis of Population Modernization in China

This paper discusses the basic concept and connotation of population modernization. The author briefly analyzes the actuality of population modernization in China, gives some advice and puts forward some measures.     

Discussion of Population Modernization Theory and Actuality Analysis of Population Modernization in China

Abstract

This paper discusses the basic concept and connotation of population modernization.

The author briefly analyzes the actuality of population modernization in China, gives some advice and puts forward some measures.     

Plan C： China＇s Development under the Scarcity of Natural Capital

The critical issue of China＇s modernization is whether it can free itself from the traditional modernization plan based on the relatively abundant natural capital, and innovatively create a developmental model of a large country under the scarcity of natural capital. This is why China is so keen on circular economy and economical use of resources. Focused on this issue, this paper summarizes the theoretical elements of the development under the scarcity of natural capital, points out that Plan C is the strategic choice for China＇s future development, emphasizes that China needs to enhance the new industrialization, new urbanization and new modernization based on the restriction of natural capital, and discusses the technological and mechanistic support required to realize the development under the scarcity of natural capital.     

我国农村现代化进程中的环境污染问题及对策研究

我国的农村现代化进展迅猛。但由于管理体系不畅、资金来源不足、扶持措施不力、治理模式不适，农村环境污染问题日趋突出。建议“十一五”期间统筹“生产发展、生活改善、生态良好”目标，在加大财政资金投入和转移支付力度的同时充分引入市场机制，并采取以下措施：点上治理和面上规划并重。加强农村环境保护基础体系建设，采用多种手段扶持有关基础设施的建设和运行，在工农业生产中贯彻循环经济理念并倡导污染集中治理模式。     

资源-环境-经济系统协调发展策略研究 --以山东省为例

缓解资源与环境问题对经济社会发展的瓶颈制约是关系全局的战略课题。本文从现代化建设的实际出发。分析了山东省经济、资源、环境协调发展的主要问题。提出了21世纪山东省经济、资源、环境协调发展的目标任务和政策措施。     

中国水利现代化进程的评价和展望

着眼于中国现代化建设的历史全局,从安全性需求保障度、经济性需求保障度、舒适性需求保障度以及水生态环境和谐度四个维度,构建了中国水利现代化评价指标体系。通过定量评价,本文测算了中国未来5年、10年、20年和40年的水利现代化实现程度。从评价结果来看,2000年,中国水利现代化综合实现程度为30%;2010年,水利现代化综合实现程度提高到46%,表明过去十年是水利现代化的快速提升期。预计到2015年,中国水利现代化实现程度将提高到56%;到2020年,水利现代化综合实现程度将提高到70%,总体上达到中等现代化的水平;到2030年,水利现代化综合实现程度达到91%,基本实现水利现代化,水利发展水平与经济高收入水平基本相适应。展望2030年以后,中国水利发展将进入水生态环境全面修复和保护的时期;至2050年,中国将实现人水和谐、山川秀美,全面建成绿色现代化。由于国家对水利工作的高度重视,可以预见,中国未来十几年的水利现代化进程会大大加快,有可能在2030年或更早时间基本实现水利现代化。     

东北地区农业现代化与新型城镇化协调发展研究

新型城镇化与农业现代化作为"三化"、"四化"乃至"五化"战略的重要核心内容,研究新型城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展对于开创中国未来城乡经济社会发展一体化的新格局至关重要。以东北三省34个地级城市为研究对象,构建农业现代化与新型城镇化的评价指标体系,结合熵值赋权、变异系数赋权的综合确权法测算城市农业现代化与新型城镇化的发展水平,基于耦合协调度模型探讨二者的耦合度与协调发展度,并划分其阶段类型,研究表明:(1)东北三省新型城镇化的发展水平排序:辽宁省吉林省黑龙江省,农业现代化的发展优势排序:黑龙江省辽宁省吉林省;辽宁与吉林省的新型城镇化发展速度超前于农业现代化,仅黑龙江省的新型城镇化发展滞后于农业现代化;(2)东北三省新型城镇化的高值区分布在以哈尔滨为核心的黑龙江省西南、以长春为核心的吉林省中部、以沈阳和大连为核心的辽宁省中部及南端,农业现代化的高值区分布在哈—大—齐—绥沿线的松嫩平原;沈阳、大连、哈尔滨、长春新型城镇化水平居于东北三省前列,哈尔滨、沈阳、齐齐哈尔、绥化农业现代化水平位于首位;(3)辽宁省新型城镇化与农业现代化的耦合协调发展度均强于黑龙江省,吉林省略低;耦合度高值区位于黑龙江省东北部的三江平原、辽宁省的沿海经济带,协调发展度高值区位于黑龙江省西南部的松嫩平原及以长春、沈阳、大连为核心的小范围圈层区域;仅哈尔滨与沈阳市处于勉强协调阶段,多数城市处于高强度、中高强度拮抗耦合与轻度、中度失调阶段。     

大城市的城市化发展战略和途径研究--以南京市为例

城市化从本质上是一种经济社会结构变动过程，南京市作为长江三角洲的副中心城市和江苏省省会，需要认真研究在经济全球化背景下，如何加快推进城市化进程，发挥中心城市功能，促进城市现代化和可持续发展。城市化水平的提高、大城市中心功能的加强、较为明显的城乡二元结构是南京市城市化过程中的基本特征。南京城市化的发展遇到了前所未有的机遇，江苏省已经提出了大力规划建设以南京市为中心的都市圈，并在2001、2002连续2年扩张南京市区的范围，大大加强了南京市的综合实力。南京的城市化发展主要途径在于提升城市功能，奠定城市化的经济基础；以城市空间优化为支点，以基础设施建设为引导，提高城市现代化水平；增强中心城市辐射功能．带动城乡一体的发展。推进南京城市化的进程还必须要制定一些政策和措施傲保证，如加快户籍制度和土地制度的改革、加大投资融资的力度、制定各类切实可行的规划等等。     

中国农民问题与可持续发展

作为中国现代化特有的一个基本属性,中国农民问题根本不是也不可能是“被解决”的。而只能在中国特色的现代化模式创制中“失去意义”。正是这种创制．使得中国农民问题的变化和转型有机会成为可持续发展是否可能的典型实验。其基本含义和特点,在于如何建设和维护人和地球共同构成的这个自组织系统运行的涵养机制,以及如何把握适度发展的分寸。     

宁波城市基础设施现代化水平综合评价与预测

从道路交通、给水能源、信息通讯、环境卫生和排水排污5个方面构建了宁波市城市基础设施现代化评价指标体系,在此基础上选取1997~2003年有关统计数据对宁波城市基础设施现代化水平进行了定量评价,结合宁波市城市建设实际,分析了宁波城市基础设施现代化建设中的主要建设绩效和存在的问题,利用灰色系统预测模型,对宁波市城市基础设施现代化发展水平进行预测。结果表明：近期2005年宁波市城市基础设施现代化综合指数将达到83.8%,初具现代化城市基础设施建设的雏形;中期2010年,城市基础设施现代化综合指数将达到95.0%,具有较高的建设水平,但城市基础设施现代化建设任务仍较艰巨。提出4点加快宁波市城市基础设施现代化建设的对策建议。     

中国能耗动态增长机理和节能内涵探讨

近年来,尽管我国政府围绕一些阶段性的能源效率改进指标(例如:降低我国单位国内生产总值的能源消耗)实施了一系列政策措施,并且就此已经取得了显著的成效,但这并未从根本上消除我国当前经济社会发展过程中存在的能源浪费和不合理使用现象,以及从长远来看我国经济社会发展趋向和依赖高能耗经济社会发展路径的隐患。究其原因,关键是对符合我国现实国情的节能内涵欠缺充分的认识,从而难以制定具有前瞻性和全局性的节能发展战略。在此背景下,本文在辨析节能基本概念的基础上,结合对我国当前能源消耗动态增长特征及其形成机理的剖析,进一步归纳出我国节能的本质内涵,指出"动态节能"是我国节能的本质内涵,而我国"动态节能"的根本目的在于减少我国实现现代化(例如城镇化和工业化等)整体过程中的"集总能源消耗"。本文开展的以上定性分析工作加深了对我国节能内涵的认识,为相关决策者制定更加全面的节能政策提供必要的决策参考依据。     

粮食安全：我国农业现代化的任务与标志

解决10多亿人吃饭问题是我国农业第一主题,是农业现代化的首要任务,而粮食安全水平是我国农业现代化的重要标志,因此,在我国农业现代化进程中,必须强化商品粮基地建设;不断提高种粮科学技术的经济效益、粮食转化效益,保护和改善粮食生产者和主产区经济利益和经济状况,建立健全国家粮食安全保障体系,提高我国粮食安全水平。     

Farm-level assessment of CO2 and N2O emissions in Lower Saxony and comparison of implementation potentials for mitigation measures in Germany and England

Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from agricultural farming practice contribute significantly to European GHG inventories. For example, CO₂ is emitted when grassland is converted to cropland or when peatlands are drained and cultivated. N₂O emissions result from fertilization. Enabling farmers to reduce their GHG emissions requires sufficient information about its pressure–impact relations as well as incentives, such as regulations and funding, that support climate-friendly agricultural management. This paper discusses potentials to improve the supply of information on: farm-specific climate services or impacts, present policy incentives in Germany and England that support climate-friendly farm management and related adaptation requirements. Tools which have been developed for a farm environmental management software (to be added after review because of potential identification) are presented. These tools assess CO₂ emissions from grassland conversion to cropland and peatland cultivation, as well as N₂O emissions from nitrogen fertilization. As input data, the CO₂ tool requires a classification of soil types according to soil organic carbon storage. The input data based on soil profile samples was compared with reference data from the literature. The N₂O tool relies on farm data concerning fertilization. These tools were tested on three farms in order to determine their viability with respect to the availability of required data and the differentiation of results, which determines how well site-specific conservation measures can be identified. Assessing CO₂ retention function of grassland conservation to cropland on the test farms leads to spatially differentiated results (~100 to ~900 potentially mitigated t CO₂ ha^?1). Assessed N₂O emissions varied from 0.41 to 1.1 t CO₂eq. ha^?1 a^?1. The proposed methods support policies that promote a more differentiated funding of climate conservation measures. Conservation measures and areas can be selected so that they will have the greatest mitigation effects. However, even though present policy instruments in Germany and England, such as Cross Compliance and agri-environmental measures, have the potential to reduce agricultural GHG, they do not appear to guide measures effectively or site-specifically. In order to close this gap, agri-environmental measures with the potential to support climate protection should be spatially optimized. Additionally, the wetland restoration measures which are most effective in reducing GHG emissions should be included in funding schemes.     

对我国农业现代化深层次问题的思考

中国农业现代化不可能照搬西方发达国家，必须从实际出发，吸收欧美等国先进科学技术和经验及教训，合理利用自然资源，保护生态环境，同时还要利用具有中国特色的传统技术和国外的高新技术，建设符合国情的非传统农业现代化，并实施可持续发展战略。在此背景下，文章分析了农业现代化过程中面临的深层次问题，提出了发展对策。     

Describing and measuring ethno-entomological knowledge of rice pests: tradition and change among Asian rice farmers

The paper presents a methodology that guided several ethnoentomological research projects and goes on to examine and compare the results from two independent research locations in Asia. The first location is in the Philippines, a Green Revolution area that has been heavily impacted by extension messages and insecticide use. The second location is in Nepal which has a traditional subsistence orientation and has remained widely unaffected by agricultural modernization. The paper emphasizes the differences and similarities of the results from the two sites and discusses the role of the methodology and methods used in capturing ethnoentomological knowledge, particularly with regard to insect pests in rice. The results of both investigations share the importance of agronomic criteria among farmers in insect classification and sorting criteria, thus highlighting the relevance of functional criteria. Farmers at both research sites have difficulties in identifying the lifecycles of insects. We discuss the issues of tradition and change in farmer entomological knowledge and providing support to the knowledge base of farmers though programs like IPM-Farmer Field Schools as opposed to broad-based recommendations for crop pest management.Article type: MS-ENVI-SI ETHNOSCI MS04 Contribution to Environment, Development & Sustainability, special issue ‘Bridging the gap between natural resources and their human management for the future using ethnoscience’.     

东南沿海经济发达地区发展趋势与问题

东南沿海经济发达地区是我国改革开放和现代化建设的先行地区。在持续十几、二十几年的经济快速发展过程中,该地区产业结构进一步优化,经济实力迅速提高,已经基本形成城乡一体化、城市连绵化的格局,为我国综合实力的增强做出了巨大贡献。随着经济全球化、一体化的发展,该地区将继续担负我国国际竞争力提升和国内经济发展示范的重要作用。然而,产业自主创新能力不强、能源缺口较大、耕地流失严重、粮食安全问题、产业发展空间受限、生态环境恶化等已成为该地区可持续发展的瓶颈。在分析该地区发展状况与问题的基础上,从协调经济、环境与社会的角度出发,以科学发展观为指导,对东南沿海地区经济可持续发展提出了建议。     

世界农业思潮与中国农业的现代化和自然化选择

关于世界农业发展方向与道路的理论问题,目前学术界存在着三种思潮,现代化与自然化问题是这些思潮争论的重要焦点之一。从中国国情看,农业现代化是努力方向,集约持续农业是主要发展道路,自然农业从总体上难于推行,但其保护资源环境的思路与作法在局部上是可取的。     

南京城市基础设施现代化建设进程与对策

提出南京城市基础设施现代化的六大指标体系，即道路交通快捷化、公用设施优质化、邮电通讯信息化、住宅设施舒适化、排水防洪标准化、城市环境生态化并提出相应的临界值。选择其中十项具有典型意义的指标，建立灰色系统预测模型，预测南京城市基础设现代化建设进程可分三个阶段：1999－2013年为基本实现城市基础设施现代化阶段；2014－2020年为城市基础设施现代化建设中级阶段；2021－2030年为城市基础设施现代化建设高级阶段。实现现代化建设目标应从增强城市经济实力、提升中心城市功能、优化城市基础设施结构、调整城市空间形态结构、拓宽融资渠道、构建市场主导型的融资结构、加强城市生态环境建设、实现城市可持续发展等方面采取对策。     

崇明岛开发的自然秉赋与制约

在2l世纪世界环境与发展相互协调的历史背景下，有着自然优势的崇明岛开发成为上海现代化发展第三次飞跃的战略性目标之一。从长江口和崇明岛发育自然和人工控制后自然适应演变规律的历史和现状，探讨实现崇明岛开发的自然秉赋与制约因素，近两千年来长江河口自然演变规律的分析结果表明：弯道侧向环流及其对泥沙的输运对河口沙坝和汉道发育演变以及流域内众多大型工程对河口环流结构的影响研究，将是对长江口综合治理的理论前提，更是崇明岛实现人与自然协调开发的基础。而且，风能、湿地生态功能和岛内沟河网的自然生态功能、湿地生态功能和岛内沟河网的自然生态功能等可再生资源的充分利用可以实现崇明岛的零污染开发和治理。     

Does information on the interdependence of climate adaptation measures stimulate collaboration? A case study analysis

A key issue in implementing adaptation strategies at the landscape level is that landowners take measures on their land collectively. We explored the role of information in collective decision-making in a landscape planning process in the Baakse Beek region, the Netherlands. Information was provided on (a) the degree to which measures contribute to multiple purposes, (b) whether they are beneficial to stakeholders representing different sectors of land use, and (c) the need for landscape-level implementation of adaptation measures. Our analysis suggests that the negotiation process resulted in collective decisions for more collaborative adaptation measures than could be expected from individual preferences previous to the planning session. Based on the results, it is plausible that the provided information enhanced integrative agreements by leading stakeholders to realize that they were mutually interdependent, both in acquiring individual benefits as well as in implementing the measures at the landscape level. Our findings are significant in the context of the emerging insight that targeted information provision for climate adaptation of landscapes can support collaboration between the relevant stakeholders.