Setting Site Specific Critical Loads: An Approach using Endorsement Theory and Dempster–Shafer

There is an increasing demand from conservation agencies for site-specific critical loads (CL); unfortunately, there is often very little specific information on a site to determine the important parameters needed to calculate the CL or on the spatial location of the “designated feature” in a site. Determining the most appropriate CL therefore involves using expert judegement to make decisions with incomplete and uncertain information. Endorsement Theory (Cohen, 1985) and Dempster–Shafer statistics (Dempster, 1967; Shafer, 1976) are, respectively, a decision-theoretic and a statistical technique for reasoning under those conditions (uncertainty and incompletness). A key reason for applying these techniques is that they make expert opinion explicit and available for scrutiny. Both techniques have been applied to the problem of setting an appropriate site specific CL, using heathland sites as a case study. Inital findings are encouraging; the uncertainty in expert judgement is made explict, the end results are intuitively reasonable and the methodology apparently acceptable to decision makers.     

Effect of Changing VOC Influent Composition on the Microbial Community Structure of TBABs

Microbial communities in trickle bed air biofilters (TBABs) were evaluated under conditions of interchanging the feed volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and VOC mixtures. Three independent TBABs (Biofilter “A,” “B,” and “C”) were run under interchanging VOCs conditions with different initial VOCs. Two aromatic compounds (toluene and styrene) and two oxygenated compounds (methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK)) were interchanged as single solutes. Two other TBABs “D” and “E” were run for two VOC mixtures. Biofilter “D” had a VOC mixture with equal molar ratio of the four components and Biofilter “E” received a VOC mixture with its composition based on EPA 2003 emission report. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis of 16S rRNA genes was used to assess the microbial richness in TBABs for treating the VOC mixtures and the impact of interchanging VOCs on the bacterial community structure in the biofilters. The results from DGGE indicated that the microbial community structure in the biofilter was different after each interchange of VOCs. Some bands of microbial species faded and some bands were strengthened. For the two TBABs treating VOC mixtures, the microbial species did not show significant difference, but the richness among these species was different from each other.     

Evaluation of the effect of automotive bumper recycling by life-cycle inventory analysis

This paper describes a case study of the application of life-cycle inventory analysis to automotive bumper recycling. Two scenarios of bumper recycling are compared. One is “bumper-to-bumper recycling,” in which we recycle bumpers into more bumpers. The other is “cascade recycling,” in which bumpers are recycled into different parts of a car with a lower function. Inventory analysis is applied to both these recycling scenarios by analyzing the stages of acquiring natural resources, manufacturing materials, and parts, disposal, and recycling. We chose air emission, solid waste, and fossil fuel resources as items of the inventory analysis. We quantified the effect of reductions in the environmental load by recycling bumpers, and found that reductions in the environmental load were larger with cascade recycling than with bumper-to-bumper recycling based on current conditions. Received: February 2, 2000 / Accepted: April 21, 2000     

Assessing Aerobic Biodegradability of Plastics in Aqueous Environment by GC-Analyzing Composition of Equilibrium Gaseous Phase

Testing biodegradability of plastics under varied conditions of the environment as well as under laboratory conditions in accordance with valid international standards is very laborious, lengthy and often also economically demanding. For this reason, applicability was verified of gas chromatography to analyze gaseous phase when investigating the biodegradation course of plastics in an aqueous environment as an alternative to customary employed methods. A mathematical model of acid–basic CO₂ equilibrium in a gas–liquid system was worked out, enabling to determine quantity of produced CO₂ through chromatographic analysis of gaseous phase, in dependence on ratio of liquid and gas phase volumes (V _l/V _g) and on actual pH of liquid phase. Experimental conditions for organizing the tests were optimized. A ratio that proved suitable was V _l/V _g ≅ 0.1 at pH ≈ 7.1 of liquid phase. Under these test conditions, biodegradability of model samples, PHB, Gellan gum and Xanthan gum, was explored; course of biodegradation was studied through produced CO₂ (values ) determined by analyzing gaseous phase through gas chromatography on the one hand, and through customary “titration” procedure on the other. With water-soluble polymers, the decrement in dissolved organic carbon (values D _DOC) was also studied. Difference between values does not exceed 5%. The procedures in question are alternative “substituting” procedures for observing course of aerobic biodegradation of substances in an aqueous environment.     

Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

Water transport in polylactic acid (PLA), PLA/ polycaprolactone copolymers, and PLA/polyethylene glycol blends

Polylactic acid (PLA) is a hydrolytically degradable aliphatic polyester, and water vapor permeability may have a significant influence on the rate of degradation. A method is devised to use bags prepared from PLA films and filled with molecular sieves to determine the water vapor permeability in the polymer, its copolymers with caprolactone, and blends with polyethylene glycol. The “solution-diffusion” model is used to determine the permeability parameters. These include the solubility coefficient,S, a measure of the equilibrium water concentration available for hydrolysis and the diffusion coefficient,D, which characterizes the rate of water vapor diffusion into the film under specific conditions. Values ofS andD at 50‡C and 90% relative humidity ranged from 400 × 10^-6 to 1000 × 10^-6 cm³ (STP)/(cm³ Pa) and 0.20 × 10^-6 to 1.0 × 10^-6 cm²/s, respectively. TheS andD coefficients were also measured at 20 and 40‡C and compared to those of other polymers. The degree of crystallinity was found to have little influence on the measured permeability parameters. The heat of sorption, δH_S, and the activation energy of diffusion, E_D, were used to show that the permeability process is best described by the “water cluster” model for hydrophobic polymers. Finally, the diffusion coefficient is used to compare the rate of water diffusion to the rate of water consumption by ester hydrolysis. Results indicate that hydrolytic degradation of PLA is reaction-controlled.     

Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertainty in Emission Estimates

We simulate the market for emission permits by considering uncertainty in emission inventory reports. The approach taken in this analysis is to enhance the emissions reported in each region by a certain part of their uncertainty when compliance with the Kyoto targets is being proved. While this formulation is not new in the literature, we define the uncertainty component in a way that enables comparison with the approach of effective permits presented in Nahorski, Horabik, and Jonas (2007) Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto protocol: Rules for uncertain inventories, (this issue). We show and explain that the transformation to effective permits bears additional costs apart from those resulting from shifting the Kyoto targets.     

Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount

Emissions trading in the European Union (EU), covering the least uncertain emission sources of greenhouse gas emission inventories (CO₂ from combustion and selected industrial processes in large installations), began in 2005. During the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), the emissions trading between Parties to the Protocol will cover all greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆) and sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, waste, and selected land-use activities) included in the Protocol. In this paper, we estimate the uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes based on uncertainties in corresponding inventories. According to the results, uncertainty in emissions from the EU15 and the EU25 included in the first phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (2005–2007) is ±3% (at 95% confidence interval relative to the mean value). If the trading were extended to CH₄ and N₂O, in addition to CO₂, but no new emissions sectors were included, the tradable amount of emissions would increase by only 2% and the uncertainty in the emissions would range from −4 to +8%. Finally, uncertainty in emissions included in emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol was estimated to vary from −6 to +21%. Inclusion of removals from forest-related activities under the Kyoto Protocol did not notably affect uncertainty, as the volume of these removals is estimated to be small.     

Novel fry-drying method for the treatment of sewage sludge

The purpose of this study is to introduce an efficient drying method named “fry-drying technology” for the treatment of sewage sludge. The basic principle of this method lies in the rapid escape of moisture from sludge material through its pores into the oil medium driven by the strong pressure gradient formed between sludge and oil media. This beneficial pressure distribution for moisture transfer can be established by the subtle combination of the difference of physical properties of specific heat and boiling temperature between water and oil. In order to determine the physical characteristics of this fry-drying technology, a series of experiments were performed in which important parameters, such as heating oil temperature, drying time, oil type, and sludge size, were varied. Numerical calculations using a single solid spherical particle model without any porosity were used to resolve the particle size effect associated with sludge drying.     

UN/ECE ICP Materials Dose-response Functions for the Multi-pollutant Situation

A “multi-pollutant exposure programme” reflecting the new pollution situation where SO₂ is no longer the dominating pollutant has been performed by the International Co-operative Programme on Effects on Materials, including Historic and Cultural Monuments (ICP Materials) within the activities of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. The main results obtained in the period 1997–2003 are summarised. Dose-response functions are presented for carbon steel, zinc, copper, bronze and limestone. Parameters involved in the functions include besides SO₂ and pH, which were included in the previously developed functions from ICP Materials, also the effect of particulate matter and HNO₃.     

Comparison of Soil Extraction Isotherms of Soil Samples Saturated With Nonpolar Liquids

In multiphase systems capillary pressures play a significant role on fluid movement and retention. The facility to predict the effect of different thermal remediation strategies requires the knowledge of the effect of temperature on capillary pressure-saturation relationships in the soils. The objective of recent study was (a) to develop a technique for routinely measuring the pressure-saturation curves of soil samples saturated with a nonpolar liquid at different regulated temperatures (b) to build a database using the measured pressure-saturation curves and the physical, chemical properties of the model soils (c) to establish the dependence of nonaqueous phase liquid retention on the soil properties and the temperature. The retention curves (extraction isotherms) with nonaqueous phase liquid were determined using a modified pressure plate extractor. The wetting phase was a non-aromatic hydrocarbon distillation product. Pressure plates were designed and constructed in the laboratory of our department. The temperature was held constant at 20, 40 and 60 ^∘C. Statistical analysis was performed involving selected soil parameters and the measured nonaqueous phase liquid retention data. The results show that knowing some easily measurable soil parameters (bulk density, particle size distribution, humus and lime content) we can estimate the nonaqueous phase liquid retention of the soils. The measured “extraction isotherms” provide essential information about the temperature-dependency of pressure-saturation curves.     

3R strategies for the establishment of an international sound material-cycle society

Focusing on the promotion of the “3Rs” – reduce, reuse, and recycle – the authors summarize the policy that Japan has evolved in waste management and recycling policy over the years. To realize an international sound material-cycle society (SMS), the 3R approaches should first be implemented in each individual country. After each country has established an SMS to the best of its ability, contribution toward reducing the environmental load internationally, especially across all of East Asia, will be achieved by having waste and recyclable resources that cannot be handled in one country effectively used or processed in other countries. The current situation of international resource circulation is described and a concept of SMS at an international level is proposed. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily the official views of the organizations with which the authors are affiliated.     

National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Understanding Uncertainties versus Potential for Improving Reliability

We investigated the Austrian national greenhouse gas emission inventory to review the reliability and usability of such inventories. The overall uncertainty of the inventory (95% confidence interval) is just over 10% of total emissions, with nitrous oxide (N₂O) from soils clearly providing the largest impact. Trend uncertainty – the difference between 2 years – is only about five percentage points, as important sources like soil N₂O are not expected to show different behavior between the years and thus exhibit a high covariance. The result is very typical for industrialized countries – subjective decisions by individuals during uncertainty assessment are responsible for most of the discrepancies among countries. Thus, uncertainty assessment cannot help to evaluate whether emission targets have been met. Instead, a more rigid emission accounting system that allows little individual flexibility is proposed to provide harmonized evaluation uninfluenced by the respective targets. Such an accounting system may increase uncertainty in terms of greenhouse gas fluxes to the atmosphere. More importantly, however, it will decrease uncertainty in intercountry comparisons and thus allow for fair burden sharing. Setting of post-Kyoto emission targets will require the independent evaluation of achievements. This can partly be achieved by the validation of emission inventories and thorough uncertainty assessment.     

Biodegradation of Coir and Sisal Applied in the Automotive Industry

This paper discusses the results of biodegradability tests of natural fibers used by the automotive industry, namely: coir, coir with latex, and sisal. The biodegradation of coir, coir with latex, and of sisal fibers was determined by monitoring the production of carbon dioxide (CO₂) (IBAMA—E.1.1.2, 1988) and fungal growth (DIN 53739, 1984). The contents of total extractives, lignin, holocellulose, ashes, carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen of the fibers under study were determined in order to ascertain their actual content and to understand the results of the biodegradation tests. The production of CO₂ indicated low biodegradation, i.e., about 10% in mass, for all the materials after 45 days of testing; in other words, no material inhibited glucose degradation. However, the percentage of sisal fiber degradation was fourfold higher than that of coir with latex in the same period of aging. The fungal growth test showed a higher growth rate on sisal fibers, followed by coir without latex. In the case of coir with latex, we believe the fungal growth was not intense, because natural latex produces a bactericide or fungicide for its preservation during bleeding [1]. An evaluation of the materials after 90 days of aging tests revealed breaking of the fibers, particularly sisal and coir without latex, indicating fungal attack and biodegradation processes.     

Trial burn activities for a mixed waste incinerator

The Consolidated Incineration Facility (CIF) is located on the Savannah River Site (SRS), owned by the US Department of Energy and managed by BNFL, Inc. for the Westinghouse Savannah River Company. SRS received permits from the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Region IV to construct and operate the CIF, a hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste incinerator. This paper presents the results of the trial burn conducted on the CIF in April 1997 which is the initial demonstration of compliance with the permits. The incinerator is currently operating under approved post-trial burn conditions while the trial burn results are being evaluated. A final operating permit is anticipated in the fall of 1998.     

Spatial GHG Inventory: Analysis of Uncertainty Sources. A Case Study for Ukraine

A geoinformation technology for creating spatially distributed greenhouse gas inventories based on a methodology provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and special software linking input data, inventory models, and a means for visualization are proposed. This technology opens up new possibilities for qualitative and quantitative spatially distributed presentations of inventory uncertainty at the regional level. Problems concerning uncertainty and verification of the distributed inventory are discussed. A Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainties in the energy sector at the regional level is performed, and a number of simulations concerning the effectiveness of uncertainty reduction in some regions are carried out. Uncertainties in activity data have a considerable influence on overall inventory uncertainty, for example, the inventory uncertainty in the energy sector declines from 3.2 to 2.0% when the uncertainty of energy-related statistical data on fuels combusted in the energy industries declines from 10 to 5%. Within the energy sector, the ‘energy industries’ subsector has the greatest impact on inventory uncertainty. The relative uncertainty in the energy sector inventory can be reduced from 2.19 to 1.47% if the uncertainty of specific statistical data on fuel consumption decreases from 10 to 5%. The ‘energy industries’ subsector has the greatest influence in the Donetsk oblast. Reducing the uncertainty of statistical data on electricity generation in just three regions – the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Luhansk oblasts – from 7.5 to 4.0% results in a decline from 2.6 to 1.6% in the uncertainty in the national energy sector inventory.     

Studies on the pyrolysis behavior of gasification and melting systems for municipal solid waste

 It is important to investigate the pyrolysis processes of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the same way as for any mixture comprised of multiple substances. In this article, a two-reaction model for a variety of MSW mixtures is proposed to predict mass changes due to pyrolysis. In order to formulate the model based on pyrolysis kinetics, we conducted experiments to determine the kinetic model parameters. By thermal analysis of the typical components of MSW, mass changes attributable to the pyrolysis reaction were found at about 350°C for paper, 400°–500°C for plastics, and 200°–400°C for garbage (dry condition). Activation energies were obtained by the Ozawa method based on the mass changes in pyrolysis. Thus, the pyrolysis behavior is formulated as a function of temperature. Then the pyrolysis mass change of the mixture can be predicted by using a weighted sum of the individual components. The model proved useful in experiments with real waste (refuse-derived fuels). Furthermore, the weight yields (pyrolysis gas, tars, solid residues) of the mixture can be calculated by their additive property after measuring the mass balance of each component. Received: May 11, 2001 / Accepted: November 16, 2001     

Evaluation of material recycling for plastics: environmental aspects

“Zero emissions” is a concept envisaging the creation of a sustainable society with minimal disposal of resources. In order to realize zero emissions for plastics, it is important to establish a method for quantitatively evaluating candidate recycling processes. In this study, the principle of the substitution factor (SF) is introduced. A quantitative evaluation of the recycling process for plastics was then carried out. The production process for monofilament plastics was examined. The recycling of plastics discarded during the production process could be substituted in small amounts for virgin materials, giving reduced CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, production using recycled material mixed with virgin material was more effective in reducing CO₂ emissions than when recycled materials only were used. Received: November 19, 1999 / Accepted: November 28, 2000     

Biodegradation of Epoxy and MF Modified Polyurethane Films Derived from a Sustainable Resource

Mesua ferrea L. seed oil (MFLSO) modified polyurethanes blends with epoxy and melamine formaldehyde (MF) resins have been studied for biodegradation with two techniques, namely microbial degradation (broth culture technique) and natural soil burial degradation. In the former technique, rate of increase in bacterial growth in polymer matrix was monitored for 12 days via a visible spectrophotometer at the wavelength of 600 nm using McFarland turbidity as the standard. The soil burial method was performed using three different soils under ambient conditions over a period of 6 months to correlate with natural degradation. Microorganism attack after the soil burial biodegradation of 180 days was realized by the measurement of loss of weight and mechanical properties. Biodegradation of the films was also evidenced by SEM, TGA and FTIR spectroscopic studies. The loss in intensity of the bands at ca. 1735 cm⁻¹ and ca. 1050 cm⁻¹ for ester linkages indicates biodegradation of the blends through degradation of ester group. Both microbial and soil burial studies showed polyurethane/epoxy blends to be more biodegradable than polyurethane/MF blends. Further almost one step degradation in TG analysis suggests degradation for both the blends to occur by breakage of ester links. The biodegradation of the blends were further confirmed by SEM analyses. The study reveals that the modified MFLSO based polyurethane blends deserve the potential to be applicable as “green binders” for polymer composite and surface coating applications.     

Cap and trade schemes on waste management: A case study of the Landfill Allowance Trading Scheme (LATS) in England

The Landfill Allowance Trading Scheme (LATS) is one of the main instruments used in England to enforce the landfill diversion targets established in the Directive 1999/31/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 April 1999 on the landfill of waste (Landfill Directive). Through the LATS, biodegradable municipal waste (BMW) allowances for landfilling are allocated to each local authority, otherwise known as waste disposal authorities (WDAs). The quantity of landfill allowances received is expected to decrease continuously from 2005/06 to 2019/20 so as to meet the objectives of the Landfill Directive. To achieve their commitments, WDAs can exchange, buy, sell or transfer allowances among each other, or may re-profile their own allocation through banking and/or borrowing. Despite the goals for the first seven years – which included two target years (2005/06 and 2009/10) – being widely achieved (the average allocation of allowances per WDA was 22.9% higher than those finally used), market activity among WDAs was high and prices were not very stable. Results in terms of waste reduction and recycling levels have been satisfactory. The reduction of BMW landfilled (in percentage) was higher during the first seven years of the LATS period (2005/06–2011/12) (around 7% annually) than during the previous period (2001/02–2004/05) (4.2% annually). Since 2008, the significance of the LATS diminished because of an increase in the rate of the UK Landfill Tax. The LATS was suppressed after the 2012/13 target year, before what it was initially scheduled. The purpose of this paper is to describe the particularities of the LATS, analyse its performance as a waste management policy, make a comparison with the Landfill Tax, discuss its main features as regards efficiency, effectiveness and the application of the “polluter pays” principle and finally discuss if the effect of the increase in the Landfill Tax is what made the LATS ultimately unnecessary.