Energy Embodied in Goods in International Trade of China: Calculation and Policy Implications

Abstract

In recent years, China’s energy demand and Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown very fast, quite an amount of which was exported as energy embodied in goods in international trade rather than consumed domestically. Starting from the concept of embodied energy, based on input-output energy analysis approach, in this paper the energy embodied in goods in international trade of China during the period from 2001 to 2006 is calculated. The results show that although China has become a net importer of petroleum since 1993, China is a net exporter of embodied energy due to international trade in goods. In 2002, the total amount of energy embodied in exported goods was about 410 million tce (ton of coal equivalent, hereinafter referred to as “tce”). Eliminating the amount of energy embodied in imported goods of about 170 million tce, the net export of embodied energy was about 240 million tce, accounting for 16% of the aggregate primary energy consumption of that very year in China, and the net export of embodied emissions was about 150 million tons of carbon. With the rapid growth of China’s international trade, assuming no structural input-output changes of among sectors, in 2006 the net export of embodied energy went up to about 630 million tce, an increase of 162 % over 2002. In addition, this paper also analyzes the possible sources of error in calculation, and also discusses the policy implications according to the result of the calculation.     

Carbon Embodied in International Trade of China and Its Emission Responsibility

Carbon emissions embodied in international trade of China during 1997-2007 are accounted by input-output method based on Chinese input-output table and global trade analysis project database.It is revealed that carbon emissions embodied in imports and exports both increased during 1997-2007,but carbon emissions embodied in exports are greater than those embodied in imports,China is a net export nation in embodied carbon.The net exports of embodied carbon account for about 10.82% of the total carbon emissions in 1997,dropped to 7.15% in 2002,increased to13.13% in 2006,and slightly dropped to 12.64% in 2007.Low-end position of international industry division is an objective factor of being a net exporter of embodied carbon for China,and usage of a large amount of obsolete energy-using equipments wasted much energy and increased carbon emissions embodied in exports.Importers should take more responsibilities for carbon emissions embodied in trade,and China should take a certain responsibility for unreasonable energy dissipations too.     

贸易隐含污染物测算及结构绿色转型研究

该文根据中国2002年和2007年非竞争型投入产出表、OECD的国外投入产出表和GTAP Version 7.0的CO2排放强度等数据,利用多国投入产出模型方法测算了中国对外贸易中隐含污染物,分析了贸易隐含污染物的行业结构分布以及在主要贸易伙伴国中的贸易流向,并通过结构分解方法分析了出口规模总量、出口结构变化、投入产出表中间结构变化及单位产值CO2排放量四大因素对出口贸易隐含CO2的贡献。研究结果表明:2002-2007年间,我国对外贸易创造了巨大贸易顺差,同时也带来了大量隐含CO2、SO2顺差,2002年和2007年贸易隐含CO2顺差达6.21×108t和1.38×109t。2002年和2007年贸易隐含SO2顺差分别为323.99万t和674.54万t;出口贸易规模的扩大使我国出口贸易隐含CO2大幅增加,带来了巨大的环境压力,且出口贸易结构、投入产出中间结构变化也增加了出口贸易隐含CO2的排放。但是单位产值的CO2排放量的降低对抑制隐含CO2增长值发挥了十分重要作用,故需要进一步优化贸易结构,调整产业结构,提高能源利用效率,也就是贸易结构绿色转型势在必行。     

Carbon Embodied in International Trade of China and Its Emission Responsibility

Abstract

Carbon emissions embodied in international trade of China during 1997–2007 are accounted by input–output method based on Chinese input–output table and global trade analysis project database. It is revealed that carbon emissions embodied in imports and exports both increased during 1997–2007, but carbon emissions embodied in exports are greater than those embodied in imports, China is a net export nation in embodied carbon. The net exports of embodied carbon account for about 10.82% of the total carbon emissions in 1997, dropped to 7.15% in 2002, increased to 13.13% in 2006, and slightly dropped to 12.64% in 2007. Low-end position of international industry division is an objective factor of being a net exporter of embodied carbon for China, and usage of a large amount of obsolete energy-using equipments wasted much energy and increased carbon emissions embodied in exports. Importers should take more responsibilities for carbon emissions embodied in trade, and China should take a certain responsibility for unreasonable energy dissipations too.     

China’s Export Expansion, Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up,China’s export trade has maintained a rapid growth;meanwhile,China’s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. "High export and high energy consumption" has become the feature of China’s trade and economic development.In this paper,based on the input-output analysis approach,the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors.The results show that,China is a big net exporter of embodied energy.Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%,the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years,and based on the input-output data of 2005,by 2030 China’s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production,which is obviously infeasible.As a country of very low per capita energy,China must change its export pattern,encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity,and promote structural change of energy-efficient exported products,so as to achieve the sustainable development.Accordingly,the authors put forward some suggestions.     

China＇s Export Expansion, Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up, China＇s export trade has maintained a rapid growth; meanwhile, China＇s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. ＂High export and high energy consumption＂ has become the feature of China＇s trade and economic development. In this paper, based on the input-output analysis approach, the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors. The results show that, China is a big net exporter of embodied energy. Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%, the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years, and based on the input-output data of 2005, by 2030 China＇s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production, which is obviously infeasible. As a country of very low per capita en- ergy, China must change its export pattern, encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity, and promote structural change of energy- efficient exported products, so as to achieve the sustainable development. Accordingly, the authors put forward some suggestions.     

Analysis of the Energy Embodied in Foreign Goods Trade of China

Abstract

In recent years, scientists have been increasingly interested in the energy embodied in traded goods among countries. In this article, the direct energy intensities in various economic sectors of China were calculated with the data of energy consumption and output value of each sector, and the input–output table was used to estimate the external energy consumption. The total energy intensity of all sectors was then obtained. From the data of international trade, the energy embodied in goods trade of China was estimated for the period of 1994–2001. During this period, the average energy intensity of imported goods was always higher than that of exported ones. As a country with a surplus in international goods trade, China actually imported net embodied energy in the past few years. The net embodied energy imported was at the same magnitude of the imported energy in the form of fossil fuels.     

China’s Export Expansion,Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Abstract

Since the reform and opening up, China’s export trade has maintained a rapid growth; meanwhile, China’s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. “High export and high energy consumption” has become the feature of China’s trade and economic development. In this paper, based on the input–output analysis approach, the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors. The results show that, China is a big net exporter of embodied energy. Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%, the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years, and based on the input–output data of 2005, by 2030 China’s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production, which is obviously infeasible. As a country of very low per capita energy, China must change its export pattern, encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity, and promote structural change of energy– efficient exported products, so as to achieve the sustainable development. Accordingly, the authors put forward some suggestions.     

基于投入产出法的中国出口产品隐含碳测算

使用投入产出法,利用1999 -2008年中国海关货物出口商品分类数据,研究和测算了中国出口商品中的隐含碳.研究结果显示,中国是隐含碳的出口大国,出口贸易是中国CO2排放量逐年增长的重要原因.1999 - 2008年,我国出口产品中的隐含碳由1999年的3.8亿t上升至2008年的11.9亿t,在此期间,中国CO2年排放量的12％ -24％是因生产满足国际市场消费的产品而产生的.中国出口产品中的隐含碳主要集中在5大类行业,分别为:纺织业及服装鞋帽制造业、化学医药制造业、黑色及有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、通用及专用机械设备、电气机械及器材制造业.这5大类行业的出口产品中的隐含碳在中国出口产品的隐含碳总量中占到80％左右.中国出口产品隐含碳的主要流向是美国、欧盟和日本.在实证研究结果的基础上,本文认为国际社会应从生产者负责制和消费者负责制相结合的角度界定各国的碳排放责任和减排目标；同时建议我国应提高生产技术,降低产品的能源消耗强度,并限制能源密集型产业产品的出口.     

Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

Abstract

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%–6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%–1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6–73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encouraged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%-6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%-1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6-73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encour-aged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

Research on carbon emissions in China's export trade based on input-output model

Becoming the world’s largest emitter of carbon makes China the object of criticism;however,people may ignore the fact that when China exports low-carbon products,the carbon emissions have been left in the meanwhile,forming the so-called"embodied carbon".Using the input-output model,this paper analyzes the carbon emission intensity and amount of embodied carbon of various sectors in China’s export trade in 2002 and 2007,and filters out high carbon emission sectors.In addition,this paper also points out the problem of carbon emissions’international transfer from developed countries to China through the analysis of national and regional flow of export carbon emissions and changing of the proportion of emissions for exports relative to total emissions,and explains the reason that caused carbon transfer to China by using the treadmill of production theory.Based on that,this paper proposes some measures for carbon reduction in China from the foreign trade perspective.     

晶硅光伏组件出口对中国碳排放的影响

基于文献资料,估算了2004-2009年中国晶硅光伏组件制造过程中的能源消耗和CO2排放强度。研究发现,2004-2009年,晶硅光伏组件制造过程中的能耗强度和CO2排放强度均逐年下降。2009年,单晶、多晶光伏组件制造过程中的能耗强度分别为2 629 kWh/kWp和2 242 kWh/kWp,碳排放强度分别为1 829 gCO2/Wp和1 559 gCO2/Wp。由于晶硅光伏组件的大量出口,中国不仅出口了大量的隐含碳,还损失了数量可观的、潜在的CO2减排能力。2004-2010年,中国的隐含碳净出口量由3万tCO2增加到852万tCO2;如果出口的晶硅电池全部用于国内,在其生命周期内累计可减排CO23.4亿t。除2004年和2010年外,国内安装的晶硅光伏组件在其生命周期内所能减少的CO2排放不足以抵消晶硅光伏行业的CO2排放,晶硅光伏行业对中国CO2减排的贡献为负。在多晶硅全部国产的情况下,中国若维持晶硅电池应用中的CO2减排量与全行业CO2排放量的平衡,至少应将晶硅组件制造的7.2%安装在国内使用。若多晶硅进口比例仍保持在50%左右,则至少应将晶硅组件制造的4.9%安装在国内使用。     

我国能源节约战略研究

节约能源，保护环境，是全面建设小康社会、实现可持续发展的必不可少的前提条件。中国万美元GDP能耗水平是发达国家的3至11倍。节能潜力很大。其中工业部门是我国的能源消费大户。其能源消费占全国能源消费总量的比重一直保持在70％左右，其节能潜力也居第一位。2020年中国实现全面建设小康社会的目标．人均GDP是3000美元，按届时人口15亿计算，全国GDP为49500亿美元，所需要的能源总量是33亿t标准煤，万美元GDP的能耗是6．67吨标煤；人均能耗是2．13吨标煤。只要政策选择适当。我国完全可以以当初发达国家一半的能源供应实现其相应的人均经济发展目标。为此，我们需要继续建立和完善适应市场经济要求的推动能源节约与资源综合利用的新机制；加快制定与《节约能源法》配套法规，引导和规范用能行为；加快建立以企业为主体的技术创新体系。     

Empirically Analysis of the CO2 Emissions Embodied in Exports of China

In this paper,using the input-output model,the author first calculated the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China in 2002 and 2007.Then,the author empirically analyzed problems existing in the composition of exported products and analyzed its possible reasons.The research results of this paper are as follows:Since China’s entry into WTO,the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China have been increasing rapidly;the value of exported products of high-carbon emissions industries accounts for a relatively higher proportion to China’s total exports value because China’s carbon intensive products have a certain competitive advantage.Additionally,this paper has put forward relevant suggestions based on these results.     

Empirically Analysis of the CO2 Emissions Embodied in Exports of China

Abstract

In this paper, using the input-output model, the author first calculated the CO₂ emissions embodied in exports of China in 2002 and 2007. Then, the author empirically analyzed problems existing in the composition of exported products and analyzed its possible reasons. The research results of this paper are as follows: Since China’s entry into WTO, the CO₂ emissions embodied in exports of China have been increasing rapidly; the value of exported products of high-carbon emissions industries accounts for a relatively higher proportion to China’s total exports value because China’s carbon intensive products have a certain competitive advantage. Additionally, this paper has put forward relevant suggestions based on these results.     

Erratum to: Fuelling the English breakfast: hidden energy flows in the Anglo-Danish trade 1870–1913

The 1870–1914 globalization period had profound impacts on the international division of labour, with coal-endowed countries specializing in the production of energy-intensive manufacturing goods and others in the production of agricultural goods. This study analyses the environmental consequences of this specialization, by quantifying the flows of energy and hidden energy embodied in the bilateral trade between the UK, the industrial workshop of the world, and Denmark, a coal-poor country with an agricultural economy. We show that the transformations that occurred in Danish agriculture to meet the growing demand for breakfast foods in the UK required significant quantities of feed and coal. Denmark was a net importer of energy throughout the period and a net importer of hidden energy in 1870. However, by the end of this wave of globalization, Denmark had become a significant net exporter of hidden energy to the UK. This was due both to an increase in its land productivity and to the import of coal, grain and fertilizers from abroad.

     

Analysis of China''s Water Security and Virtual Water Trade

Producing goods and services all needs water consumption. The water used in the process of an agricultural or industrial product is called the "Virtual Water" contained in this product.Through international trade, water-scarce countries and regions could purchase water-intensive products--especially foods, from water-rich countries to balance their water deficits and achieve water safety. China is one of the 13 most water-deficit countries whose water safety have been severely challenged. This paper generalized the recent global research development and made a brief introduction about the methods calculating virtual water content in specific products. As a case study, we qualified China's annual virtual water flows from year 2000 to 2002 with trade in crops, and ended with some policy advice for application and practice of virtual water strategy.     

MRIO model-based study on water nitrogen pollution transfer embodied in international trade

This study uses the global pollutant emission databases and global input–output model in 2015 to calculate the impact of international trade on global water nitrogen emission patterns, based on considering the total amount of pollutant transfer and pollutant emission intensity of trade flows The main conclusions are as follows: (1) There are always a large amount of water nitrogen emissions transferring from developed economies to developing economies embodied in their bilateral trade activities. Small amount of transfers are of some areas with similar endowments of agricultural resources or long distances. (2) In 2015, the net import of water nitrogen pollution embodied in China’s trade was 160,000 tons, accounting for 2.72% of the global water nitrogen imports. The sharp increases in cereal imports, together with high food storage as well as high pollution intensity embedded in trade are the main reason. It is recommended that through applying alleviations such as agricultural machinery assistance and technical training to accelerate the transfer and spread of agricultural technology in Africa, Asia, and other regions, thus helping increase agricultural production productivity in underdeveloped areas and reducing the pollution intensity embodied in trade flows from underdeveloped areas to developed areas.     

基于LMDI方法的中国国际贸易隐含碳分解

对国际贸易产生环境影响的定量研究正日益受到关注,特别是对隐含碳的研究.以中国2005年为例,对中国国际贸易隐含碳进行估算,应用对数平均D氏指数法(LMDI)对影响隐含碳净转移的因素进行分解分析.结果显示中国因生产排放碳量远大于其消费需要排放的碳量,从国外净转移到中国的隐含碳为395.66MtC;净转移隐含碳影响因素中强度效应(进出口商品完全碳排放系数差异)贡献率为60%,规模效应(进出额差异)贡献率为55%,结构效应(进出口结构差异)贡献率为-14%,此结果表明中国相比国外的高碳排放强度是造成目前碳转移额外增加的主要因素,分析结构效应发现中国主要净出口行业大部分不是高碳排放强度行业,而净进口行业却主要由高碳排放强度行业构成,特别是与碳排放密切相关的能源行业居净进口行业首位.