Study on the Regional Distribution of Energy Efficiency from the Point of Pollutant Emissions

In this paper,the author uses super-efficiency DEA model to measure the national and regional energy efficiency in China;using spatial econometric model and from the perspective of geo-spatial spillover,the author interprets the spatial characteristics of energy efficiency and extracts the main factors that influence the regional energy efficiency.The analysis results show that:(1) the national and regional energy efficiency is consistent with inverted U-shaped curve,and the nationwide energy efficiency gap is increasing;(2) energy efficiency has the obvious effect of the spatial external effect,and when the government makes energy saving strategies,inter-regional energy cooperation and the proliferation of advanced production technology should be given more priority;(3) energy efficiency has significant negative correlation with government intervention,industrial structure,ownership structure,the energy consumption structure,and resource endowments,and has positive correlation with the degree of opening-up and energy price.     

Target Gap of Emission Reduction for China:Analysis based on Elastic Decoupling

The present paper analyzes historically the relationship between carbon emission and economic development by different stages through adopting elastic decoupling methods and Tapio evaluation criteria along with a comparison with the national Five Year Plans. The analysis shows that the influencing factors to the relationship between carbon emission and economy in China are different, and economic development and carbon emission have less connection in the recent 30 years of reform and opening-up in China. It is a difficult task to realize the promise that we will reduce carbon emission by 40%-50% in 2020 based on the data from historical experience and different expectations for economic development from economists. Through constructing the calcula- tion model of carbon emission intensity gap according to different development scenarios, the analysis shows that economic growth, infrastructure investment and further development of industrial-ization are the main drivers to the increase of carbon emission, technological progress, and particularly, the reduction of energy consumption is the primary means to reduce carbon emission in China. It is imperative to transform the economic growth pattern, and it is a grand task to perform and there is a long way to go for China to maintain economic growth and reduce carbon intensity.     

Dynamic Changes, Regional Differences, and Influencing Factors of CO2 Emission Performance in China

This paper proposes to use DEA models with undesirable outputs to construct the Malmquist index that can be use to investigate the dynamic changes of CO 2 emission performance.With the index,the authors have measured the CO 2 emission performance of 28 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 1996 to 2007;with the convergence theory and panel data regression model,the authors analyze the regional differences and the influencing factors.It is found that the performance of CO 2 emissions in China has been continuously improved mainly due to the technological progress,and the average improvement rate is 3.25%,with a cumulative improvement rate of 40.86%.In addition,the CO 2 emission performance varies across four regions.As a whole,the performance score of eastern China is the highest.The northeastern and central China has relatively lower performance scores,and the western China is relatively backward.The regional differences are decreasing,and the performance of CO 2 emissions is convergent.The influence of some factors on the performance of CO 2 emissions is significant,such as the level of economic development,the level of industrial structure,energy intensity,and ownership structure.The influence of some factors,such as opening-up to the outside world,on the performance of CO 2 emissions is not significant..     

Analysis of transportation carbon emissions and its potential for reduction in China

The transportation industry is an essential sector for carbon emissions mitigation.This paper firstly used the LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)decomposition method to establish factors decomposition model on China’s transportation carbon emission.Then,a quantitative analysis was performed to study the factors influencing China’s transportation carbon emissions from 1991 to 2008,which are identified as transportation energy efficiency,transportation structure and transportation development.The results showed that:(1)The impact of transportation development on transportation carbon emissions showed pulling function.Its contribution value to carbon emissions remained at high growth since 1991 and showed an exponential growth trend.(2)The impact of transportation structure on transportation carbon emissions showed promoting function in general,but its role in promoting carbon emissions decreased year by year.And with the continuous optimization of transportation structure,the promoting effect decreased gradually and showed the inversed"U"trend.(3)The impact of transportation energy efficiency on transportation carbon emissions showed a function of inhibition before pulling.In order to predict the potential of carbon emission reduction,three scenarios were set.Analysis of the scenarios showed that if greater intensity emission reduction measures are taken,the carbon emissions will reduce by 31.01 million tons by 2015 and by 48.81 million tons by 2020.     

Decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,based on the perspective of terminal energy consumption

In order to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and to explore the pathways to developing a low-carbon economy,this paper begins with the terminal energy consumption of three industries and residential consumption,and constructs an identical equation which is composed of population size,level of economic development,energy intensity,the proportion of energy consumption,energy structure,and the coefficient of carbon emissions.Based on the data of terminal energy consumption during 2000-2012,various factors are analyzed and their contribution is measured by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI).The results show that the levels of population and economy have a positive driving effect while energy intensity,energy structure,and carbon intensity have a negative driving effect;the proportion of energy consumption had a negative driving effect prior to 2006,then changed to positive.Among suggestions for a low-carbon economy are controlling population size,improving the quality of economic development,supporting research into new energy technology,accelerating regional integration and optimizing industrial structure,and enhancing environmental protection and spreading the concept of a low-carbon economy.     

Effect analysis of carbon trading on Economy-Energy-Environment system and calculation of reasonable carbon price intervals

This paper constructs a 4-lier computable general equilibrium model which includes such modules as modeling carbon emission constraints and carbon trading(CT),and incorporates the cost of carbon emissions into constant elasticity of substitute production function.Under scenario settings under different carbon abatement targets,based on 2007 national social accounting matrix and related statistical data about energy consumption and carbon emission,effects on economic outputs,energy consumption,and carbon abatement are estimated and analyzed at both macro and sector level.By calculating selected novel indicators that compromise between macroeconomic opportunity cost and achievable carbon abatement,reasonable carbon price intervals are given for enhancing the robustness and liquidity of carbon market.Further,by decomposition and share-weighted methods,expected carbon abatement and energy price are measured and analyzed in details.Some results are meaningful for fundamental design of the future carbon market.Given constant energy utilization and carbon abatement technologies at the macro level,the higher the carbon price the more actual carbon abatement;the more gross domestic product loss,the less energy consumption.Accwding to the overall situation estimated for 2007 in China,the advice given is to introduce a carbon abatement target rate(R_c)of-10%,which is helpful to make carbon market stable against unexpected carbon price shocks between[6.9,35]/tC with less economic loss.According to Kaya decomposition,after introduction of carbon pricing,carbon abatement is mainly contributed by the effects of energy intensity(EI)and technical progress.Further,CT may help reduce energy consumption and induce transformation to a low-carbon energy structure.At the sector level,the introduction of CT could induce economic recession in all sectors,especially energy.However,the overall economic structure remains unchanged to some extent.CT will help reduce energy consumption in all sectors,especially energy.Overall utilization costs of the energy composite can be divided in two,market price and carbonrelated costs.Carbon-related costs mainly contribute to variation in the utilization cos of the energy composite;carbon pricing may help non-energy sectors achieve sufficient carbon abatement by pushing up energy utilization cost.However,despite achievable carbon abatement by the energy sector being relatively high,induced by carbon pricing,there is still significant potential for other incentive policies to stimulate further abatement,such as energy resources taxation and transportation fuel taxation,especially in the sectors of coal and transportation.Finally,some advice is proposed in regard to policy decisions and further research.     

China's Voluntary Mitigation Target and Road of Low-carbon Development

China is going through a rapid development stage of industrialization and urbanization.Although tremendous achievements have been made in the aspects of energy conservation,improvement of energy effectiveness and development of new and renewable energies,because of the rapid development of economy,it is difficult to change the huge total amount and fast increase of CO2 emission in the near future.China has to confront the tough challenge to address global climate change.China plans to reduce carbon intensity,that is,CO2 emissions per unit GDP,by 40 to 45% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level.It is a strategic option to coordinate domestic sustainable development with coping with global climate change on the basis of China’s national circumstances,representing the core content and key measures for transforming development pattern and realizing low-carbon development.To achieve the target,more capital and technology inputs are required for energy conservation and low-carbon development during the twelfth and Thirteenth Five Year Plan period than in the Eleventh Five Year Plan period.In addition,energy conservation achieved by structural adjustment,industrial upgrading and product value-added improvement is also expected to play a greater role.Therefore,China should strengthen technological innovation,make greater efforts to transform the development pattern,take advantage of the synergistic effect of policies and measures while coping with global climate change and building a domestic tow-oriented society.China should also establish an industrial system characterized by low-carbon emission.Then China will ultimately achieve a win-win situation in both domestic sustainable development and coping with global climate change.     

Industrial Carbon Emissions Status and Analysis Based on Energy Consumption

With frequent disastrous weathers and increasingly prominent GHG effects in recent years, normal existence and development of mankind are facing unprecedented threats and challenges. GHG emissions mitigation for the global climate changes has been the focus of concern of the world. As the biggest developing country and the second largest country of carbon-emission, China attaches importance to the carbon emission reduction. The major GHG component is carbon dioxide and in China, the emission of carbon dioxide is mainly from industrial production. In the paper, the status and trend of Co2 emission from industrial departments, high-carbon emission and its specific industries are shown in statistics. Meanwhile, the policy environment, industrial organization structure and technology of carbon high emission are all discussed based on practical situations in these departments and industries. At the end, through the analysis of gray correlation, correlativity is explored for both fossil energy consumption and total carbon emission, and also for the production value and carbon emission of each industrial sector. Some policy proposals for the establishment of low-carbon industries and transition of economic development pattern are set forth.     

Energy Efficiency and Emissions Reduction Potential of China＇s Industrial Sector

Based on the total-factor energy efficiency framework,this paper calculates China’s industrial energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential from 2000 to 2009 by utilizing the directional distance function and data envelopment analysis.The empirical results show that:China’s industrial overall energy efficiency is relatively lower while the emis-sions reduction potential is relatively greater,given the optimum production frontier.Significant indus-trial disparities of energy efficiency and emissions reduction potential exist.Energy efficiency and emis-sions reduction potential significantly show different tendencies of industrial dynamic variation.This paper suggests the Chinese government impose differential carbon taxes,flexibly utilize carbon market mecha-nism,strengthen energy-saving technological R&D,promote the utilization of renewable energy,and strengthen environmental supervision and regulation,so as to improve China’s industrial energy efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions.     

Consideration of some key issues of carbon market development in China

The global carbon market has developed rapidly with two significant trends of globalization and financialization.Deriving economic interest is a nation driven-force behind the international climate negotiation and carbon market.According to deeply analyzed relationships between the carbon market and the key subjects of the climate negotiation,this article reveals that promoting the development of the global carbon market is one of the core interests of developed nations.Based on the background of international carbon market development and domestic carbon market pilots,four suggestions to the key issues of China’s carbon market are provided.The first is that the goal of China’s carbon market should be in line with and contribute to the national objectives and policies addressing climate change.The second is that the Chinese carbon market should mainly target the emission reduction of production-sectors,and contribute to their upgradation and transformation.The third is mat the development of the nation-wide carbon market in China should first take the principle of unbalanced regional development into consideration.The fourth is that linking China’s carbon market to the international market should keep steps in line with international opening-up of China’s financing system.     

Impact Factors of Energy Productivity in China: An Empirical Analysis

This article developed a decomposition model of energy productivity on the basis of the economic growth model. Four factors were considered which may influence China’s energy productivity according to this model: technology improvement, resource allocation structure, industrial structure and institute arrangement. Then, an econometric model was employed to test the four factors empirically on the basis of China’s statistical data from 1978 to 2004. Results indicated that capital deepening con- tributes the most (207%) to energy efficiency improvement, and impact from labor forces (13%) is the weakest one in resource factor; industrial structure (7%) and institute innovation (9.5%) positively improve the energy productivity.     

An International Comparative Analysis on China's Economic Growth and the Convergence in Energy Intensity Gap and Its Economic Mechanism

In this paper,the authors have empirically analyzed the convergence in per capita GDP gap and the convergence in the variation of energy intensity with respect to the change of per capita GDP between China and eight developed countries.Then,the authors run a regression on the impact of decisive factors of economic growth on energy intensity and its change,so as to find out the economic mechanism of energy intensity gap changing with respect to the variation of economic growth.This study concludes that:First,there is a convergence in per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries.With the convergence in per capita GDP gap,the energy intensity gap between China and eight different countries also converge,and the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former,i.e.if the per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries decreases by 1%,the energy intensity gap between them will correspondingly decrease by 1.552%.Second,the energy intensity decreases with the improvement of industrial structure,the rising of energy prices,the advances of technology,and the expansion of investment in fixed assets,and it slightly increases with the increase of FDI.Third,the energy intensity gap between China and eight developed countries narrows with the lessening of the difference in fixed assets investment,energy prices,and technological progress between China and eight developed countries,yet increases with the narrowing of the difference in FDI,and has no significant correlation with the difference in industrial structure.Fourth,the narrowing of difference in per capita GDP between China and the eight developed countries can result in the lessening of energy intensity gap,whose economic mechanism is that the decisive factors,such as difference in investment,technology,and the competition mechanism of prices,which can determine the difference in economic growth,can significantly affect the energy intensity gap.     

Decomposition of Energy-related CO2 Emissions from Shanghai＇s Industries and Policy Implications

This paper quantifies a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in the industrial sectors of Shanghai over the period 1994-2007.The Log-Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method is applied to this study in terms of six factors:labor force,labor mobility,gross labor productivity,energy intensity,fuel mix,and emission coefficient.In addition,the decoupling effect between industrial economic growth and CO2 emissions is analyzed to evaluate CO2 mitigation strategies for Shanghai.The results show that all labor productivity has the largest positive effect on CO2 emission changes in the industrial sectors,whereas labor mobility and energy intensity are the main components for decreasing CO2 emissions.Other factors have different effects on CO2 mitigation in different sub-periods.Although a relative decoupling of industrial CO2 emissions from the economic growth in Shanghai has been found,Shanghai should keep pace with the industrial CO2 emissions reduction by implementing low-carbon technology.These results have important policy implications:Plan C is the reasonable choice for Shanghai.     

Energy revolution:for a sustainable future

The discovery and use of fossil fuels have not only helped the evolution of human society from agricultural civilization to industrial civilization,but also caused serious environmental and climate problems.The earth is calling for a sustainable future,and a change from industrial civilization to ecological civilization based on the new"energy revolution".A macroscopic quantitative analysis of China’s environmental capacity and climate capacity shows that China is in urgent need of changing the extensive developing mode and having an energy revolution.It is foreseeable that fossil fuels will remain the most consumed source of energies in China now and in the next few decades.Although the efficient and clean use of fossil fuels are very important,this is not an energy revolution or the fundamental solution to environmental and climate problems.Unconventional gases including shale gas play an important role in the mitigation of environmental problems and climate change,but"shale gas revolution"or"shale gas era"is not suitable to China since the proportion of natural gas in primary energy structure in China can only be increased by a maximum of 20%.The transition of Chinese energy structure from fossil-fuels-dominating stage to multiple-energy-sources stage and then to a nonfossil-fuels-dominating stage is the inevitable future,with the help of great contribution from renewable energy and nuclear energy.Among renewable energies,the proportion of non-hydro renewable energies will gradually increase.Improvement of their market competitiveness(economic efficiency)relies on technological innovation.Renewable energies will be the main energy source for the earth in future.Despite the impact of the Fukushima nuclear disaster,the whole world,including China,will not give up nuclear energy development.Safe,steady,and large-scale development of nuclear power is a rational choice of China.Transition from nuclear fission power plant to nuclear fusion power plant is the inevitable future.Nuclear energy will be a sustainable energy source and another main energy source of the earth in future.China needs to enhance energy security consciousness,promote energy saving,and change the energy supply-demand patterns,that is the transition from"meet a too-fast-growing demand with an extensive supply"to"meet a reasonable demand with a rational supply".All countries need to work together to address global environmental problems and climate change.Energy revolution is the foundation for a sustainable future.With a wide range of international cooperation,the win-win cooperation is the only way of overcoming these challenges.     

Climate Change Responsibility and China’s Endeavor

The problem of climate change is a global challenge.It is closely associated with social development and human survival,and it has a significant impact to all countries on energy development,economic competitiveness,technological innovation,and way of life.In recent years,with the rapid economic development in China,there is a rumor that the rapid growth of China’s carbon dioxide emission offset the efforts of the international community in reducing emissions,and China should bear the international responsibility corresponding to its significant role in greenhouse gas emission,which obviously are unfair and not objective.As this paper reveals,"China environment responsibility" that is the socalled "China environment threat" or theories,China has made a positive contribution to addressing the climate change in the past and China will still be the backbone on the protection of global climate in the future.     

An in-depth view of climate change:addressing climate change while making a transition on the development mode

While fossil fuels greatly contribute to human society,they pose great challenges to natural resources,the environment,and climate change.Developed countries,like the United States,formulated strategic measures to ensure their sustainable development and leading positions in the world.These measures include new green policies,development of shale gas,revitalization of nuclear power,energy independence,reindustrialization,and new low-carbon development based on a combination of Internet technology and renewable energy.Developing countries are also trying to introduce balanced strategies of poverty alleviation and sustainable development.Globally,industrial civilization is being transformed to ecological civilization and green,low-carbon development is a global trend.Addressing climate change provides new strategic factors to further this development.China should take substantial actions to realize sustainable development in a new road:China is in the critical stage of changing its development mode,so it is vital to choose an appropriate development path.This extensive development comes at the high price of consuming too much resources and scarring the environment.Mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing climate change can help the transition of development.Based on the analysis of the development data of developed countries,the author introduces the concept of"two-type developed countries"with an understanding that not all developed countries must take the same development mode.He also holds the view that China should achieve modernization in a more energy-saving and more carbon-efficient manner compared with that of two-type developed countries.An analysis of"two competitions"that China is facing shows that changing the developing mode is urgent and China should grasp this opportunity in the next five to ten years,which is a key period for this transition.This paper discusses the low-carbon development goals and the three-step process.Low-carbon development does not necessarily restrict economic development.It,however,can expedite the transition of the development mode and this is a low-carbon and green development path.Transition of the development mode includes implementation of China’s green and low-carbon energy strategies,low-carbon society construction,development of agriculture and forestry,garbage sorting and utilization,innovation of urbanization,etc.Improvement of national infrastructure construction includes water safety,environment and climate monitoring system,intelligent energy web,basic database,etc.Addressing climate change can significantly improve the nation’s basic research level.In summary,it mitigates backward production capability,extensive development,and environmental damage while promoting technological advancement,scientific development,and ecological civilization.     

Technological Progress, Structural Change and China＇s Energy Efficiency

China has witnessed rapid economic development since 1978, and during the time, energy production and consumption developed at a tremendous speed as well. Energy efficiency which can be measured by energy consumption per unit of GDP, however, experienced continuous decrease. Theoretically, the change of energy efficiency can be attributed to industry structural change and technological change. In order to explain the transformation of Chinese energy efficiency, we adopt logarithmic mean Divisia index techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period of 1994-2005. We find that technological change is the dominant contributor in the decline of energy intensity, but the contribution has declined since 2001. The change in industry structure has decreased the energy intensity before 1998, but raised the intensity after 1998. Decomposed technological effects for all sectors indicate that technological progresses in high energy consuming industries such as raw chemical materials and chemical products, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products and household contribute are the principal drivers of China＇s declining energy intensity.     

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.     

CO_2 Emission Induced by Urban Household Consumption in China

Household consumption is one of the important factors that induce COL emission. Based on input-output model, this article calculated the intensity of CO2 emission of different income groups and seven provinces in China, and then estimated total CO2 emission induced by urban household consumption from 1995 to 2004 in China based on statistic data of household living expenditure. The results show that CO2 emission per capita induced by household consumption had increased from 1583 to 2498 kg CO2 during 1995-2004. The ratio of consumption-induced CO2 emission to total CO2 emission had risen from 19% to 30% in the past decade. Indirect CO2 emission accounted for an important part of the consumption-induced emission, the ratio of indirect emission to consumption-induced emission had risen from 69% to 79% during the same period. A significant difference in consumption-induced CO2 emission across different income groups and different regions has been observed. COs emission per capita of higher income groups and developed regions increased faster than that of lower income groups and developing regions. Changing lifestyle has driven significant increase in CO2 emission. Especially, increases in private transport expenditure （for example, vehicle expenditure） and house building expenditure are key driving factors of growth in consumption-induced COL emission. There are big differences in the amount of CO2 emission induced by change in lifestyle across different income groups and provinces. It can be expected that lower income households and developing regions will increase consumption to improve their livings with income growth in the future, which may induce much more CO2 emission. A reasonable level of CO2 emission is necessary to satisfy human needs and to improve living standard, but a noticeable fact is that CO2 emission per capita induced by household consumption in developed areas of China had reached a quite high level. Adjustment in lifestyle towards a low-carbon society is in urgent need.     

Impact of Climate Change on Urban Agglomerations in China’s Coastal Region

Climate change and urbanization issues are the two key factors that make humans liable to be affected by disasters, which are overlapped in urban agglomeration. The five big urban agglomerations of China with strong economic power are the important engines for national economic and social development. However, being in the sea-land mutual interaction belts with a vast hazard-bearing body, they are affected by sea-land compound disasters, and are liable to suffer heavy disaster losses with climate change. It is suggested that government departments concerned should fully recognize the impact of climate change on coastal urban agglomerations, propose strategies as soon as possible, and integrate the impact of climate change and adaptation countermeasures into the various kinds of social-economic development plans for coastal urban regions.