Including risk in stated-preference economic valuations: Experiments on choices for marine recreation

Stated-preference surveys for the economic valuation of environmental resources typically assume no uncertainty in the hypothetical valuation scenarios. However, the outcomes of environmental policies are uncertain. We explored the effects of including information on probabilities of attribute improvement and provision in choice experiments. Our results suggest that stating explicitly a high probability for the occurrence of the valuation scenario can improve the goodness of fit of choice models and the consistency of choices. As the general public becomes more aware of the uncertainty of environmental outcomes under global change, omitting information on scenario risk may contribute to hypothetical bias and impair the validity of stated-preference valuations.     

Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part II: Hybrid life cycle assessment of Swiss glass-packaging disposal

In policy support of municipal solid waste (MSW) management, life cycle assessment (LCA) can serve to compare the environmental or economic impacts of two or more options for waste processing. The scope of waste management LCAs generally focuses less attention on future developments, e.g., where will recycling take place, and more on the environmental performance of prototypes, e.g., the incineration of all waste compared to recycling. To provide more robust support for Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal, scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging are assessed from a life cycle perspective. The scenarios consist in schemes for the disposal of the total amount of Swiss waste glass-packaging, i.e., different combinations of recycling and downcycling in Switzerland or abroad developed in Part I, Meylan et al. (2013). In this article (Part II), the disposal schemes are assessed with respect to eco-efficiency, an indicator that combines total environmental impacts and gross value added in Switzerland. Results show that no policy alternative guarantees environmental impact reductions and gross value added gains under all developments of exogenous constraints. Downcycling to foam glass in Switzerland is not only an environmentally sound disposal option, but it also buffers gross value added losses in case domestic recycling (and thus glass-packaging production in Switzerland) ceases in the future. The substitution of products based on raw materials other than Swiss cullet is the main responsible for change in environmental and economic impacts. Hence, an eco-efficiency maximizing policy should consider the products of disposal schemes. The combination of scenario analysis and eco-efficiency assessment as presented in this paper can be applied to other contexts (i.e., countries, waste fractions).     

Energy consumption comparison for different asphalt pavements rehabilitation techniques used in Chile

In developing countries without the availability of reliable pavement management systems, recycling techniques may offer the best alternative for pavement structural rehabilitation. However, for many government officials and contractors there is a clear understanding of the technical advantages of recycling but not a clear perspective of cost saving. Since cost is a relative value among different regions of any country the following work makes an energy analysis of the construction process of the three different rehabilitation techniques available in Chile. Three different structural pavement rehabilitation alternatives were studied and compared using an energy consumption methodology:

• •Asphalt overlay;
• •Reconstruction;
• •Cold in place recycling with foamed asphalt.

The methodology considers different project scenarios by combining expected traffic and soil support values. For each rehabilitation technique and scenario, the construction processes were analyzed and the design layers were transformed to equivalent energy units (MJ/m²).Results show that cold in place recycling utilizes the lowest amount of energy compared with reconstruction or an asphalt overlay in all the scenarios studied, producing more differences when rehabilitating roads for less trafficked roads. The study also concludes that aggregate haulage distance is the most sensitive factor on total energy consumption when comparing the three alternatives.     

Trends in future N₂O emissions due to land use change

Better insight in the possible range of future N?O emissions can help to construct mitigation and adaptation strategies and to adapt land use planning and management to climate objectives. The Dutch fen meadow landscape is a hotspot of N?O emission due to high nitrogen inputs combined with moist peat soils due to land use change. Socio-economic developments in the area are expected to have major impacts on N?O emission. The goals of this study are to estimate changes in N?O emissions for the period 2006-2040 under three different scenarios for the Dutch fen meadow landscape (rural production, rural fragmentation, and rural multifunctionality) and to quantify the share of different emission sources. Three scenarios were constructed and quantified based on the Story-And-Simulation approach. The rural production and the rural fragmentation scenarios are characterized by globalization and a market-oriented economy; in the rural production scenario dairy farming has a strong competitive position in the study region, while under the rural fragmentation scenario agriculture is declining. Under the rural multifunctionality scenario, the global context is characterized by regionalization and stronger regulation toward environmental issues. The N?O emission decreased between 2006 and 2040 under all scenarios. Under the rural production scenario, the N?O emission decreased by 7%. Due to measures to limit peat mineralization and policies to reduce agricultural emissions, the rural multifunctionality scenario showed the largest decrease in N?O emissions (44%). Under the rural fragmentation scenario, in which the dairy farming sector is diminished, the emission decreased by 33%. Compared to other uncertainties involved in N?O emission estimates, the uncertainty due to possible future land use change is relatively large and assuming a constant emission with time is therefore not appropriate.     

Ecological scenarios analyzed and evaluated by a shallow lake model

We applied the complex ecosystem model EMMO, which was adopted to the shallow lake Müggelsee (Germany), in order to evaluate a large set of ecological scenarios. By means of EMMO, 33 scenarios and 17 indicators were defined to characterize their effects on the lake ecosystem. The indicators were based on model outputs of EMMO and can be separated into biological indicators, such as chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria, and hydro-chemical indicators, such as phosphorus. The question to be solved was, what is the ranking of the scenarios based on their characterization by these 17 indicators? And how can we handle high quantities of complex data within evaluation procedures? The scenario evaluation was performed by partial order theory which, however, did not provide a clear result. By subsequently applying the hierarchical cluster analysis (complete linkage) it was possible to reduce the data matrix to indicator and scenario representatives. Even though this step implies losses of information, it simplifies the application of partial order theory and the post processing by METEOR. METEOR is derived from partial order theory and allows the stepwise aggregation of indicators, which subsequently leads to a distinct and clear decision. In the final evaluation result the best scenario was the one which defines a minimum nutrient input and no phosphorus release from the sediment while the worst scenario is characterized by a maximum nutrient input and extensive phosphorus release from the sediment. The reasonable and comprehensive results show that the combination of partial order, cluster analysis and METEOR can handle big amounts of data in a very clear and transparent way, and therefore is ideal in the context of complex ecosystem models, like that we applied.     

Emergy evaluation of an integrated livestock wastewater treatment system

Wastewater treatment practices should pay more attention to their environmental performances due to their resources consumption and emissions’ impact. While reclaimed water reuse seems to have become a promising practice, is it always feasible in any condition? To address this issue, this study carried out an extended emergy evaluation of a holistic wastewater treatment system. On one hand, this method was extended to include the emissions’ impact. On the other hand, this study integrated a wastewater treatment plant, its excess sludge disposal system and treated water disposal system into an integrated wastewater treatment system (IWTS), so as to evaluate its performances more completely. And then several indicators, including cost per unit pollutant eliminated (CUPE), ratio of positive output (RPO), environmental load ratio (ELR), and sustainability index (SI), were proposed for evaluating the performances of an IWTS. Two scenarios (scenario A: wastewater treatment + sludge landfilling + treated water discharges; scenario B: wastewater treatment + sludge landfilling + reclaimed water reuse) for a livestock wastewater treatment plant in Sichuan Agricultural University located in Ya’an City in Southwest China, as cases, were researched. The results show that scenario B has lower positive output efficiency and greater environmental load than scenario A. Meanwhile, the reclaimed water reuse raises cost per unit pollutant eliminated compared with the treated water being discharged directly; emissions’ impact enhances the environmental load of the two scenarios to different degree; emissions’ impact has decisive effect on the sustainability of the two scenarios. These results mean that the reclaimed water reuse should not be advocated in this case. This study provides some policy implications: (1) wastewater treatment process should be comprehensively evaluated from its resources consumption and impact of emissions; (2) reclaimed water reuse should be carefully evaluated from its pros and cons simultaneously; (3) the local conditions should be considered when implementing reclaimed water reuse, such as local water body conditions, market demands, the related laws and regulations, corporations’ economic conditions, etc.     

Conflict on the Coast: Using Geographic Information Systems to Map Potential Environmental Disputes in Matagorda Bay,Texas

The sustainable management of coastal natural resources inevitably involves identifying stakeholder conflicts and developing planning processes that prevent these conflicts from becoming intractable disputes. This study links environmental conflict to specific areas within a large ecological system. Specifically, we use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map potentially competing stakeholder values associated with establishing protected areas in Matagorda Bay, Texas. By overlaying multiple values associated with a range of stakeholders across space, we are able to identify hotspots of potential conflict as well as areas of opportunity for maximizing joint gains. Mapping stakeholder conflict is an approach to proactively locate potential controversy in response to a specific environmental management proposal and guide decision makers in crafting planning processes that mitigate the possibility of intractable disputes and facilitate the implementation of sustainable coastal policies. Results indicate that under different management scenarios, protected area proposals will generate more conflict in specific areas. Most notably, regulated uses would produce the greatest degree of conflict on or near shore, particularly at the mouth of the Colorado River. Additionally, of all the management scenarios evaluated, the prohibition of coastal structural development would generate the overall highest level of conflict within the Bay. Based on the results, we discuss the policy implications for environmental managers and provide guidance for future research on location-based conflict management within the coastal margin.     

Environmental sustainability assessment of food waste valorization options

Food waste can be valorized through different technologies, such as anaerobic digestion, incineration, and animal feed production. In this study we analyzed the environmental performance of two food waste valorization scenarios from a company of the retail sector in Belgium, through exergy analysis, exergetic life cycle assessment (ELCA), and a traditional life cycle assessment (LCA). In scenario 1 all food waste was considered to be valorized in an anaerobic digestion (producing electricity, heat, digestate and sorting the packaging material to be used as fuel for cement industry), while in scenario 2 a bread fraction was valorized to produce animal feed and a non-bread fraction was valorized in an anaerobic digestion (producing the same products on scenario 1, but in lower amounts). Scenario 2 was 10% more efficient than scenario 1 in the exergy analysis. For the ELCA and the single score LCA, scenario 2 presented lower environmental impacts than scenario 1 (32% and 26% lower, respectively). These results were mainly due to the avoided products from traditional supply chain (animal feed produced from agricultural products) and lower exergy loss at the feed production plant. Nevertheless, the high dry matter content of the bread waste played an important role on these results, therefore it should be pointed out that valorizing food waste to animal feed seems to be a better option only for the fractions of food waste with low water content (as bread waste).     

Towards Sustainable Integrated Watershed Ecosystem Management: A Case Study in Dingxi on the Loess Plateau, China

The Chinese government initiated a massive conservation program called “Grain-for-Green” in 1999 to reduce soil erosion and improve ecosystem function. Implementing practical sustainable development in the loess plateau still remains problematic, particularly in its eco-fragile areas. Here we discussed an approach for sustainable development at the watershed scale by integrating land use suitability, ecosystem services and public participation in the loess hilly area. We linked land use scenario analysis and economic modeling to compare the outcomes of three scenarios, CLU (Current Land Use), GOLU (Grain-production Oriented Land Use) and PSLU (Potential Sustainable Land Use). The results indicated that compared to PSLU, GOLU may provide a higher economic productivity in the short-term, but not in the long-term. CLU ranked lowest in terms of economic benefits and did not meet the daily needs of the local farmers. To reconcile the land use adjustments with farmers’ basic needs, a labor-saving land use strategy is necessary. Since the PSLU scenario assumes that slope cropland should be converted to pastures or orchards, more time may be available for off-farm work and for more public participation in integrated ecosystem management. Financial support to the local farmers for environmental conservation should be modulated in function of their positive contribution to ecosystem management.     

Personalized Nutrition and Social Justice: Ethical Considerations Within Four Future Scenarios Applying the Perspective of Nussbaum’s Capabilities Approach

The idea of personalized nutrition (PN) is to give tailored dietary advice based on personal health-related data, i.e. phenotoype, genotype, or lifestyle. PN may be seen as part of a general trend towards personalised health care and currently various types of business models are already offering such services in the market. This paper explores ethical issues of PN by examining how PN services within the contextual environment of four future scenarios about health and nutrition in Europe might affect aspects of social justice according to Martha Nussbaum’s capability approach. The scenarios have been created by a mixed group of stakeholders and experts in three consecutive workshops. This resulted in the definition of four future scenarios within a scenario space consisting of two variables: the ‘logic of health care systems’ and ‘conception of health’. Within each scenario, PN is likely to play a more or less important role in improving health by influencing food consumption patterns in society. Nussbaum’s capability approach implies a concept of social justice as a function of a minimum standard of human dignity. This denotes an account for equality in terms of a minimum of entitlements. However, also the ability of achieving individual objectives is essential for social justice. Personalisation advice in health and food consumption patterns, as aimed for by PN, is therefore acceptable provided a minimum of entitlements is guaranteed to all members of a society, and at the same time freedom concerning personal preferences is respected. Potential variation of how different people might benefit from PN should therefore be consistent with the minimum required as defined by the list of capabilities.     

Environmental evaluation of transfer and treatment of excess pig slurry by life cycle assessment

Slurry management is a central topic in the agronomic and environmental analysis of intensive livestock production systems. The objective of this study is to compare the environmental performance of two scenarios of collective slurry management for the disposal of excess nitrogen from animal manure. The scenarios are the transfer of slurry and its injection to crop land, and the treatment of slurry in a collective biological treatment station. The study is based on a real case in the West of France, where a group of farmers is developing a collective plan for the disposal of almost 7000 m(3) of excess pig slurry. The evaluation is carried out by Life Cycle Assessment, where emissions and resource consumption are quantified and aggregated into four environmental impact categories: eutrophication, acidification, climate change, and non-renewable energy use. Ammonia emitted is the most important contributor to acidification and eutrophication, while methane contributes most to climate change. Both ammonia and methane are mostly emitted during the storage of slurry and, in the case of the treatment scenario, also during composting the solid fraction of the slurry. The two management strategies are similar with respect to climate change, whereas eutrophication and acidification are twice as large for treatment relative to transfer. Electricity needed for the treatment process is the main contributor to non-renewable energy use for the treatment scenario, while the transfer scenario represents a net energy saving, as energy saved by the reduction of mineral fertiliser use more than compensates for the energy needed for transport and injection of slurry. The overall environmental performance of transfer is better than that of treatment, as it involves less acidification, eutrophication and non-renewable energy use. The method employed and the results obtained in this study can provide elements for a transparent discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of contrasting excess slurry management scenarios as well as the identification of the main aspects determining their environmental performance.     

Due diligence assessment of non-financial risk: Prophylaxis for the purchaser

Most large mining companies grow by acquisition and conduct due diligence assessments in order to identify the opportunities and risks associated with potential acquisitions.Due diligence assessment is usually restricted to considering the financial aspects of an asset, and often overlooks the non-financial risks that may compromise the economic viability or operability of a project. However, experience has shown that neglecting non-financial risk areas such as environmental, socio-economic and sustainability performance may be problematic and, under extreme circumstances, potentially disastrous, particularly in a developing world context.This paper examines the due diligence process and identifies the limitations of conventional assessments based solely on financial risk. It presents practical recommendations on structuring due diligence assessments to consider non-financial risk so that the full risk profile of an asset can be identified.     

Trade-Offs Between Biodiversity Conservation and Economic Development in Five Tropical Forest Landscapes

This study explores how conservation and development are interlinked and quantifies their reciprocal trade-offs. It identifies interventions which hold a promise to improve both conservation and development outcomes. The study finds that development trajectories can either be at the cost of conservation or can benefit conservation, but in all cases sustained poverty negatively affects conservation in the long term. Most scenarios with better outcomes for conservation come at a cost for development and the financial benefits of payments for environmental services (PES) are not sufficient to compensate for lost opportunities to earn cash. However, implementation of strategies for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in locations with low population densities come close to overcoming opportunity costs. Environmental services and subsistence income enhance the attractiveness of conservation scenarios to local people and in situations where these benefits are obvious, PES may provide the extra cash incentive to tip the balance in favor of such a scenario. The paper stresses the importance of external factors (such as industrial investments and the development of the national economy) in determining landscape scale outcomes, and suggests a negotiating and visioning role for conservation agencies.     

Comparison of development scenarios of a black water source-separation sanitation system using life cycle assessment and environmental life cycle costing

The objective of the study is to compare different development scenarios of a black water source-separation sanitation system (BWS) that could be environmentally and economically more viable than a conventional system (CONV). Scenarios performance is evaluated using life cycle assessment and environmental life cycle costing. System boundaries include the processes related to the collection and treatment of wastewater and organic kitchen refuse collection and the recycling of by-product (digestate/sludge and biogas) produced in the treatment step. The BWS scenario that entails a vacuum toilet flow-volume reduction to 0.5 L/flush results in significantly higher performances than the ones of CONV for the climate change and resources indicators, while involving a significantly lower performance with regards to human health and a comparable cost. The BWS scenario based on digestate mass reduction with reverse osmosis and acidification prior to its transport to farmland achieves comparable performances to the ones of CONV for all indicators. The BWS scenario with digestate treatment by means of phosphorus precipitation (struvite) and nitritation–anammox reactors gives performances that are comparable to the ones of CONV for all indicators, with the exception of climate change, for which this scenario has a significantly lower performance if the electricity is produced by hydropower. When single-pathway scenarios are combined, the multi-pathway scenarios thus created can produce results that are significantly superior to the CONV result for the climate change, resources and human health indicators although the cost remains comparable.     

Characteristics of Coastal Dune Topography and Vegetation in Environments Recently Modified Using Beach Fill and Vegetation Plantings,Veneto, Italy

Human actions can contribute to degradation of coastal environments or they can increase the likelihood that these environments will be restored. Beach nourishment provides a basis for restoration, but ways must be found to add habitat improvement to projects designed for shore protection. This study examines how beach nourishment projects can help reinstate dune landscapes in locations where beaches and dunes had been replaced by static shore protection structures. Dune topography and vegetation on three nourished sites on the northern Adriatic Coast of Italy are compared to a reference site to evaluate changes after beach fill was emplaced. Results reveal how nourishment projects used for shore protection can restore the space available for dunes to form, increase the likelihood of sediment transfers inland and increase the diversity of topography and vegetation. Beach raking prevents formation and growth of hummocky, incipient backshore dunes that would otherwise evolve into a naturally functioning foredune. Sand-trapping fences can speed the process of foredune development but can be counterproductive if they interfere with transport to beach grass (Ammophila littoralis) planted landward of them. Shore protection structures can provide stability and more time for dune evolution on eroding shores, resulting in greater species richness and longer retention of ecological niches. These structures need not be required if re-nourishment occurs frequently enough to provide a beach wide enough to protect against storm wave uprush.     

Scenario analysis: a review of methods and applications for engineering and environmental systems

Changing environment, uncertain economic conditions, and socio-political unrest have renewed interest in scenario analysis, both from theoretical and applied points of view. Nevertheless, neither the processes for scenario analysis (SA) nor evaluation criteria and metrics have been regularized. In this paper, SA-reported applications and implementation methodology are discussed in the context of an extensive literature review covering papers published between 2000 and 2010. Over 340 papers were identified through a series of queries in the web of science database. The papers were classified based on the North American Industrial Classification System and SA application goals (environmental, business, and social). SA methodology used in each paper was assessed based on four main criteria: coverage, consistency, uncertainty assessment, and efficiency. We find a significant increase in SA applications, especially in the environmental field. Theoretical developments in the field represent a small fraction of published studies and do not increase in time. The methods used to develop different scenarios vary widely across the academic literature and applications reviewed. Similarly, the methods and data used to characterize the scenarios and develop response strategies are extremely diverse and are limited by factors such as computational tractability and available time and resources. Based on this review, we recommend a regular process for scenario analysis that includes the steps of analysis, scenario definition, and evaluation.     

Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil

This study estimated a series of indicators to assess the energy security of supply and global and local environmental impacts under different mitigation scenarios through 2050 in Brazil, designed with the integrated optimization energy system model MESSAGE‐BRAZIL. The assessment of interactions between environmental impacts and energy security dimensions was complemented through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Overall results imply energy security establishes more synergies than trade‐offs in increasingly stringent mitigation scenarios, especially patent within the sustainability dimension, which increases energy security and provides additional benefits regarding climate change mitigation and air pollution emissions. It is still necessary to extend analysis to other energy sectors in addition to the power supply sector and to promote a better understanding of repercussions of energy scenario expansion in energy security.     

Constructing land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030

The National Environmental Assessment Agency of the RIVM in the Netherlands is obliged to report on future trends in the environment and nature every 4 years. The last report, Nature Outlook 2, evaluated the effects of four alternative socio-economic and demographic scenarios on nature and the landscape. Spatially detailed land-use maps are needed to assess effects on nature and landscape. The objective of the study presented here was how to create spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030 using the Environment Explorer, a Cellular Automata-based land-use model to construct land-use maps from four scenarios. One of these is discussed in great detail to show how the maps were constructed from the various scenario elements, story lines and additional data and assumptions on national, regional and local land-use developments. It was the first time in the history of our outlooks that consistent, spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands for 2030 were constructed from national economic and demographic scenarios. Each map represents a direct reflection of model input and assumptions. The maps do not show the most probable developments in the Netherlands but describe the possible change in land use if Dutch society were to develop according to one of the four scenarios. The large (societal) uncertainties are reflected in the total set of future land-use maps. The application of a land-use model such as the Environment Explorer ensures that all relevant aspects of a scenario, i.e. economic and demographic developments, zoning policies and urban growth, are integrated systematically into one consistent framework.     

Coastal zone management – between politics and law: new guidelines for differentiated management of the shore zone in Norway

Norway has more than 100,000?km of coastline and associated shore zone. The shore zone is an attractive area for development and infrastructure on the one hand, and recreation and protection of biological diversity on the other. The Norwegian Planning and Building Act contains a general ban on any building in the area between the ordinary high water mark and up to 100?m inland from the shoreline. Exemptions can be granted, however, by the competent municipality through land planning and individual decisions. The importance attached to leaving the shore zone untouched varies from region to region. There are large geographical differences in terms of biodiversity, cultural heritage, landscape, development, development pressure, migration and depopulation, and commercial activity, as well as public access to the coastal areas and the ocean. Since 2011, the entire Norwegian shore zone became subject to guidelines that regulate a geographical differentiation of management and a more severe protection of central areas. This article analyses key aspects of the Norwegian shore zone regulation.     

A multi-criteria framework to assess the sustainability of renewable energy development in the Alps

A multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was implemented to assess the best solutions for enhancing the production of renewable energy in the Alps. A set of criteria were selected based on the impacts of four renewable energy sources (forest biomass, hydropower, ground solar photovoltaic and wind power) on the three spheres of sustainability (environmental, social and economic). Three different scenarios are presented, each with a different set of weights for the criteria: the first scenario considers equally all three aspects of sustainability; the second scenario foresees an environmentally-oriented perspective, while the third scenario is more focused on the socio-economic aspects related to the development of renewable energy. Results show that forest biomass and hydropower seem to be the most viable solutions for enhancing the share of renewable energy in the Alps. Ground solar photovoltaic and wind power, on the other hand, seem to be less attractive alternatives due to their high impacts on land use.