PHOSPHORUS RELEASE AND ASSIMILATORY CAPACITY OF TWO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRESHWATER WETLAND SOILS1

ABSTRACT: Phosphorus fluxes and water quality functions of a bottomland hardwood and freshwater marsh wetland soil were compared. The effect of soil physicochemical conditions, phosphorus loading rate, and diffusive exchange between soils and the overlying food water column on phosphorus release and retention were studied. The predominantly mineral swamp forest soil displayed greater phosphorus sorption potential than the organic freshwater marsh soil. Moreover, due to its low bulk density (0.11 g cm^?3), the freshwater marsh soil surface area required for phosphorus retention is very large compared to the bottomland hardwood wetland soil. For both wetlands, soil redox status affected P release and assimilatory capacity. The more reducing the soils, the smaller their phosphorus retention capacity (greater their release). Phosphorus removal from the overlying water column into the wetland soils followed a first-order kinetic model. Under similar hydrological conditions, phosphorus was found to diffuse 1.2 times faster to the bottom. land hardwood soil than in the freshwater marsh soil. Results indicate that while the bottomland hardwood wetland soil will serve as a sink for phosphorus entering such wetland, phosphorus will be released and exported from the freshwater marsh soil into adjacent ecosystems.     

Factors Influencing Phosphorus Levels Delivered to Everglades National Park,Florida, USA

Everglades restoration is dependent on constructed wetlands to treat agricultural phosphorus (P)-enriched runoff prior to delivery to the Everglades. Over the last 5 years, P concentrations delivered to the northern boundary of Everglades National Park (Park) have remained higher than the 8 μg L^?1-target identified to be protective of flora and fauna. Historically, Everglades hydrology was driven by rainfall that would then sheetflow through the system. The system is now divided into a number of large impoundments. We use sodium-to-calcium ratios as a water source discriminator to assess the influence of management and environmental conditions to understand why P concentrations in Park inflows remain higher than that of the target. Runoff from Water Conservation Area 3A (Area 3A) and canal water from areas north of Area 3A are two major sources of water to the Park, and both have distinct Na:Ca ratios. The P concentrations of Park inflows have decreased since the 1980s, and from June 1994 through May 2000, concentrations were the lowest when Area 3A water depths were the deepest. Area 3A depths declined following this period and P concentrations subsequently increased. Further, some water sources for the Park are not treated and are impeding concentration reductions. Promoting sheetflow over channelized flow and treating untreated water sources can work in conjunction with constructed wetlands to further reduce nutrient loading to the sensitive Everglades ecosystem.     

Application of nutrient loading models to the analysis of trophic conditions in Lake Okeechobee,Florida

Lake Okeechobee (surface area = 1830 km², mean depth = 3.5 m), the largest lake in Florida, is eutrophic and has nitrogen and phosphorus loading rates in excess of nearly all established criteria. The lake is not homogeneous regarding trophic conditions, and spatial and temporal variations occur regarding nutrient limitation. Nonetheless, phosphorus loading rate and trophic state data fit reasonably well to various input-output models developed for temperate lakes. Modification of the models by regression analysis to fit data for Florida lakes resulted in improved predictions for most parameters. Analysis of nutrient management alternatives for the lake indicates that a 75% reduction of phosphorus loading from the largest source (the Taylor Creek-Nubbins Slough watershed) would reduce the average chlorophyll a concentration by less than 20%. Complete elimination of inputs from the largest nitrogen source (the Everglades Agricultural Area) would decrease the average nitrogen concentration in the lake by about 20%. Limitations of nutrient inputoutput models regarding analysis of trophic conditions and management alternatives for the lake are discussed.     

DESIGN BASIS FOR EVERGLADES STORMWATER TREATMENT AREAS1

ABSTRACT: The State of Florida (1994) has adopted a plan for addressing Everglades eutrophication problems by reducing anthropogenic phosphorus loads. The plan involves implementation of Best Management Practices in agricultural watersheds and construction of regional treatment marshes (Stormwater Treatment Areas or STA's). This paper describes the development, testing, and application of a mass-balance model for sizing STA's to achieve treatment objectives. The model is calibrated and tested against peat and water-column data collected in Water Conservation Area-2A (WCA-2A), where phosphorus dynamics and eutrophication impacts have been intensively studied. The 26-year-average rate of phosphorus accretion in peat is shown to be proportional to average water-column phosphorus concentration, with a proportionality constant of 10.2 m/yr (90 percent Confidence Interval = 8.9 to 11.6 m/yr). Spatial and temporal variations in marsh water-column data suggest that drought-induced recycling of phosphorus was important during periods of low stage in WCA-2A. Maintaining wet conditions will be important to promote phosphorus removal in STA's. Sensitivity analysis of STA performance is conducted over the range of uncertainty in model parameter estimates to assess the adequacy of the model as a basis for STA design.     

MODELING FLOW IN THE EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREA IRRIGATION/DRAINAGE CANAL NETWORK1

ABSTRACT: The south Florida ecosystem and Lake Okeechobee are important water resource areas that have degraded due to changes in hydroperiod, water supply, and water quality. Approximately 56 percent of the total phosphorus in water discharged from the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) is in particulate form. Currently, farm-level best management practices are being implemented in the effort to reduce total phosphorus and sediment in off-farm discharges. The objective of this work was to develop and calibrate a model describing water movement in primary EAA canals as a first step to development of a water quality (i.e., nutrient, sediment) model. The Netherlands-developed mechanistic flow and water quality model (DUFLOW) was adapted for the EAA. Flow, stage, geometry, canal network, and meteorological data, October 13, 1993, to February 13, 1994, were used to adapt and calibrate the DUFLOW model for EAA water level and flow in primary canals. Direct runoff discharge into the primary canals from farm-pump stations was used as runoff input for the model. The model results are comparable to an independently-calculated water balance for the EAA. The calibrated flow model will be the basis for the calibration of sediment and chemical transport in the future.     

WATER BUDGET ANALYSIS FOR THE EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREA DRAINAGE BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Water budget studies are essential for water resources and environmental management. In this study, a water budget analysis is presented for the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) in South Florida for the period from 1973 to 1991. The EAA is a highly productive irrigation/drainage basin that has a high water table and organic soils. Water quality problems are associated with the drainage discharge from the basin. During dry periods, supplemental water is used for irrigation and in rainy periods excess water with relatively higher phosphorus content is pumped out of the basin to Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades ecosystem. Elevated concentrations of phosphorus in the runoff/drainage that is discharged from the EAA basin have created water quality problems. The mean surface water inflow to the basin was 63,990 ha-m, and the outflow was 131,447 ha-m per year. On the average, supplemental surface water use was 47,411 ha-m, and runoff/drainage was 114,816 ha-m per year. The mean annual basin rainfall was 120.9 cm. A general trend in the decline of the wet season rainfall is observed.     

Spatio-temporal patterns of soil phosphorus enrichment in Everglades water conservation area 2A

The Florida Everglades have undergone significant ecological change resulting from anthropogenic manipulation of historical regimes of hydrology, nutrient loading, and fire. Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A) in the northern Everglades has been a focal point for the study of ecological effects of nutrient loading, especially phosphorus (P), from the nearby Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA). The overall objective of our study was to evaluate recent (1990 to 1998) changes in the spatial extent and patterns of soil P enrichment in Everglades WCA-2A. Surface soil was sampled to a depth of 10 cm at 62 sites within WCA-2A during 1998 for analysis of total phosphorus (TP) content. Geostatistical methods were used to create an interpolated grid of soil TP values across WCA-2A. Comparison of the results of this study with a similar study performed in 1990 showed that the extent of soil P enrichment in surface soil and sediments increased between 1990 and 1998, as evidenced by increased coverage of highly P-enriched soil near the primary surface inflows and a general increase in the concentration of soil TP in the interior regions of WCA-2A. Approximately 73% (31 777 ha) of the total land area of WCA-2A was considered P-enriched (soil total P > 500 mg kg(-1)) in 1998, compared with 48% of the land area (20,829 ha) in 1990, an average increase of 1,327 ha yr(-1). Study results indicate that the soil P enrichment "front" has advanced further into the relatively unimpacted interior of WCA-2A during the past several years.     

Recent Cattail Expansion and Possible Relationships to Water Management: Changes in Upper Taylor Slough (Everglades National Park,Florida, USA)

Recent appearance of cattail (Typha domingensis) within a southern Everglades slough—Upper Taylor Slough (Everglades National Park)—suggests ecosystem eutrophication. We analyze water quality, nutrient enrichment, and water management operations as potential drivers of eutrophication in Upper Taylor Slough. Further, we attempt to determine why surface water phosphorus, a parameter used commonly to monitor ecosystem health in the Everglades, did not serve as an early warning for eutrophication, which has broader implication for other restoration efforts. We found that surface water total phosphorus concentrations generally were below a 0.01 mg L⁻¹ threshold determined to cause imbalances in flora and fauna, suggesting no ecosystem eutrophication. However, assessment of nutrient loads and loading rates suggest Upper Taylor Slough has experienced eutrophication and that continued total phosphorus loading through a point-source discharge was a major driver. These nutrient loads, combined with increases in hydroperiods, led to the expansion of cattail in Upper Taylor Slough. We recommend other metrics, such as nutrient loads, periphyton and arthropod community shifts, and sediment core analyses, for assessing ecosystem health. Monitoring surface water alone is not enough to indicate ecosystem stress.     

ESTIMATING MARYLAND CRITICAL AREA ACVS IMPACT ON FUTURE NONPOINT POLLUTION ALONG THE RHODE RWER ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of an investigation of the effects of the Maryland Critical Area Act on generation of non-point source loads of phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment to the Rhode River estuary. The Simple Method model, the Marcus and Kearney regression model, and the CREAMS model were used to estimate annual loads under: (1) present conditions, (2) maximum land use development allowable under the Act, and (3) two sets of future land use conditions that might occur if the Act were not in place. Results indicate that the Critical Area Act can reduce the present generation of nonpoint nutrient and sediment loadings 20–30 percent from the regulated area. These reductions can occur while preserving agricultural lands and allowing limited residential and urban development. The decrease in nutrient loadings is primarily dependent upon implementation and enforcement of agricultural best management practices (BMPs). The BMPs could reduce present agricultural nutrient loadings by 90 percent to a level comparable to loadings from residential areas. The estimated effectiveness of the Critical Area Act is even greater when compared to potential future nutrient loadings if development in the area remains unregulated. Unrestricted residential and urban development could increase nutrient loadings by 200 percent to 1000 percent as compared to controlled development under Critical Area Act guidelines. The Critical Area Act primarily prevents these future increases by severely limiting woodland cutting, with lesser results obtained by requiring urban BMPs.     

Tracing sources of sulfur in the Florida Everglades

We examined concentrations and sulfur isotopic ratios (34S/32S, expressed as delta34S in parts per thousand [/1000] units) of sulfate in surface water, ground water, and rain water from sites throughout the northern Everglades to establish the sources of sulfur to the ecosystem. The geochemistry of sulfur is of particular interest in the Everglades because of its link, through processes mediated by sulfate-reducing bacteria, to the production of toxic methylmercury in this wetland ecosystem. Methylmercury, a neurotoxin that is bioaccumulated, has been found in high concentrations in freshwater fish from the Everglades, and poses a potential threat to fish-eating wildlife and to human health through fish consumption. Results show that surface water in large portions of the Everglades is heavily contaminated with sulfate, with the highest concentrations observed in canals and marsh areas receiving canal discharge. Spatial patterns in the range of concentrations and delta34S values of sulfate in surface water indicate that the major source of sulfate in sulfur-contaminated marshes is water from canals draining the Everglades Agricultural Area. Shallow ground water underlying the Everglades and rain water samples had much lower sulfate concentrations and delta34S values distinct from those found in surface water. The delta34S results implicate agricultural fertilizer as a major contributor to the sulfate contaminating the Everglades, but ground water under the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) may also be a contributing source. The contamination of the northern Everglades with sulfate from canal discharge may be a key factor in controlling the distribution and extent of methylmercury production in the Everglades.     

External threats and internal management: the hydrologic regulation of the Everglades,Florida, USA

The ecological character of seasonal marshes is determined in large part by the pattern of water level fluctuation. As a result, the ecological health of a wetland reserve can be controlled by hydrologic regulation external to its boundaries. As an example, the Everglades marsh of Everglades National Park in Florida, USA, has been severely effected by management of the inflow of surface water. The Everglades occupies most of the interior of southern Florida, but only the lower 6% of the original marsh is contained in Everglades National Park. Shallow surface water reservoirs north of the park enclose 3600 km² of Everglades. Their levee system confines surface water flow into the park to several structures. Historically this water flowed across the entire core of the natural drainage. Flows into the park have been on a congressionally mandated schedule of minimum deliveries that is supplemented by additional water released into the park in amounts determined solely by upstream water management needs. My research, aimed at evaluating the effects of water conditions, has shown that this regulatory system has adversely affected reproductive success, community structure, and population sizes of sensitive species whose population stability is tied to natural water level fluctuations. These adverse effects were caused by water levels that for over a decade have been maintained at unseasonably high levels. Mathematically deterministic models of water level effects can provide management options based on biologial criteria. Park managers must incorporate understanding gained from such models into internal management decisions. Modifications of water control structures and alternative policies for managing the distribution and amount of surface water flow into the park appear attainable, can improve biological conditions in the park, and need not be adverse to neighboring external interests. Thus far biological changes are severe, and to a large extent irreversible. Ecologically sensitive management of an external threat under constraints imposed by history and setting can better maintain some semblance of ecological processes in the Everglades. If management decisions do not reflect such understanding of ecological processes, further ecological deterioration will result.     

Ecosystem management to achieve ecological sustainability: The case of South Florida

The ecosystems of South Florida are unique in the world. The defining features of the natural Everglades (large spatial scale, temporal patterns of water storage and sheetflow, and low nutrient levels) historically allowed a mosaic of habitats with characteristic animals. Massive hydrological alterations have halved the Everglades, and ecological sustainability requires fundamental changes in management.The US Man and the Biosphere Human-Dominated Systems Directorate is conducting a case study of South Florida using ecosystem management as a framework for exploring options for mutually dependent sustainability of society and the environment. A new methodology was developed to specify sustainability goals, characterize human factors affecting the ecosystem, and conduct scenario/consequence analyses to examine ecological and societal implications. South Florida has sufficient water for urban, agricultural, and ecological needs, but most water drains to the sea through the system of canals; thus, the issue is not competition for resources but storage and management of water. The goal is to reestablish the natural system for water quantity, timing, and distribution over a sufficient area to restore the essence of the Everglades.The societal sustainability in the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) is at risk because of soil degradation, vulnerability of sugar price supports, policies affecting Cuban sugar imports, and political/economic forces aligned against sugar production. One scenario suggested using the EAA for water storage while under private sugar production, thereby linking sustainability of the ecological system with societal sustainability. Further analyses are needed, but the US MAB project suggests achieving ecological sustainability consistent with societal sustainability may be feasible.     

HYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS OF A CONSTRUCTED WETLAND IN SOUTH FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the application of the SHEET2D model to the Florida's Everglades Nutrient Removal (ENR) Project. The ENR Project is a 3815 acre (1545 ha) pilot project, located in Palm Beach County. The operation of the treatment system will be used to demonstrate the performance of larger scale constructed wetland systems for removal of phosphorus from Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) stormwater runoff. It is currently the largest stormwater wetland treatment system in the world. The SHEET2D model was used to analyze the performance of the ENR Project. SHEET2D is a two-dimensional, depth-averaged hydrodynamic model that is applicable to shallow water flow conditions. Subsequently, results from SHEET2D simulations were used to develop the ENEMOD model. ENRMOD is a lumped parameter box water quality model that can be used to analyze the long term performance of the ENR project with respect to hydrology and phosphorus uptake. Localized short-circuiting in the agricultural ditches within the project area was analyzed by using the RBFVM-2D model, which is a finite volume hydrodynamic model that is also applicable to shallow water flow conditions. The SHEET2D model was employed to simulate the hydraulics of the structures between cells and the hydrodynamics of the sheet-flow moving across the buffer cell and treatment cells. Collection, distribution, and larger discharge canals within the project were simulated by means of the MultiBasin Routing (MBR) model features that are built into the SHEET2D model. Constant inflows (75 to 600 cfs [2.1 to 17 m³/s]) were used in all runs to simulate the discharge of the ENR Project based on the proposed operating schedule for the outflow pump station. The model simulated 30 days to reach steady state conditions. Under steady state conditions, the hydraulic retention times were computed for the project and the split of flow between the two treatment trains of the entire project from the common buffer cell. Additionally, design components such as height of the levees, capacity of the structures, and hydrographs at specified grids were obtained.     

Specific conductance and ionic characteristics of farm canals in the everglades agricultural area

Specific conductance in farm canals of the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) in south Florida is an important water quality parameter that was categorized as a parameter of concern according to an observed frequency of >5% excursions over the Class III water quality criterion and needed to be addressed as a part of the Everglades Regulatory Program. This study was conducted to evaluate specific conductance in farm canals of the EAA. Specific conductance was monitored at 10 representative farms (a total of 12 pump stations) in the EAA using multi-parameter water quality data loggers, for periods ranging from 24 to 83 mo. Cation and anion concentrations were also determined. Nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analyses and Sen's slope analysis of specific conductance were conducted to determine specific conductance trends. Mean specific conductance ranged from 0.74 to 1.68 dS m(-1) and only 2 of the 10 farms were above the State Class III water quality criterion of 1.275 dS m(-1). Statistically significant downward trends were observed at 3 of the 10 farms. Determination of ion compositions in grab samples at 8 of the 10 farms indicated that the major ions contributing to the increase in specific conductance in the EAA were Cl-, HCO3-, and Na+. Mean Na/Cl ratios in most of the EAA canals ranged from 0.57 to 0.78, whereas those of SO4/Cl ranged from 0.46 to 0.98. Investigation of historical data and literature indicates that elevated specific conductance in parts of the EAA is a natural phenomenon due to entrapment of connate seawater in the Everglades formation. Sulfur contributes minor increases in specific conductance in the EAA with probable sources from organic soil mineralization, ground water, Lake Okeechobee, and S fertilizers.     

Decadal change in vegetation and soil phosphorus pattern across the Everglades landscape

Wetlands respond to nutrient enrichment with characteristic increases in soil nutrients and shifts in plant community composition. These responses to eutrophication tend to be more rapid and longer lasting in oligotrophic systems. In this study, we documented changes associated with water quality from 1989 to 1999 in oligotrophic Everglades wetlands. We accomplished this by resampling soils and macrophytes along four transects in 1999 that were originally sampled in 1989. In addition to documenting soil phosphorus (P) levels and decadal changes in plant species composition at the same sites, we report macrophyte tissue nutrient and biomass data from 1999 for future temporal comparisons. Water quality improved throughout much of the Everglades in the 1990s. In spite of this improvement, though, we found that water quality impacts worsened during this time in areas of the northern Everglades (western Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge [NWR] and Water Conservation Area [WCA] 2A). Zones of high soil P (exceeding 700 mg P kg(-1) dry wt. soil) increased to more than 1 km from the western margin canal into the Loxahatchee NWR and more than 4 km from northern boundary canal into WCA-2A. This doubling of the high soil P zones since 1989 was paralleled with an expansion of cattail (Typha spp.)-dominated marsh in both regions. Macrophyte species richness declined in both areas from 1989 to 1999 (27% in the Loxahatchee NWR and 33% in WCA-2A). In contrast, areas well south of the Everglades Agricultural Area, induding WCA-3A and Everglades National Park (ENP), did not decline during this time. We found no significant decadal change in plant community patterns from 1989 and 1999 along transects in southern WCA-3A or Shark River Slough (ENP). Our 1999 sampling also included a new transect in Taylor Slough (ENP), which will allow change analysis here in the future. Regular sampling of these transects, to verify decadal-scale environmental impacts or improvements, will continue to be an important tool for long-term management and restoration of the Everglades.     

Cascading ecological effects of low-level phosphorus enrichment in the Florida everglades

Few studies have examined long-term ecological effects of sustained low-level nutrient enhancement on wetland biota. To determine sustained effects of phosphorus (P) addition on Everglades marshes we added P at low levels (5, 15, and 30 microg L(-1) above ambient) for 5 yr to triplicate 100-m flow-through channels in pristine marsh. A cascade of ecological responses occurred in similar sequence among treatments. Although the rate of change increased with dosing level, treatments converged to similar enriched endpoints, characterized most notably by a doubling of plant biomass and elimination of native, calcareous periphyton mats. The full sequence of biological changes occurred without an increase in water total P concentration, which remained near ambient levels until Year 5. This study indicates that Everglades marshes have a near-zero assimilative capacity for P without a state change, that ecosystem responses to enrichment accumulate over time, and that downstream P transport mainly occurs through biota rather than the water column.     

Nutrient and hydrology effects on soil respiration in a northern Everglades marsh

Microbial respiration in peat and overlying plant litter, as influenced by water level and phosphorus enrichment, was evaluated for an Everglades (Florida, USA) marsh ecosystem by measuring CO2 and CH4 release from soil-water microcosms. Intact cores of peat, overlying plant litter, and surface water were collected at seven locations in cattail (Typha domingensis Pers.) and sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense Crantz) stands along a phosphorus (P) enrichment gradient in Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A). Each soil-water microcosm was outfitted with a controlled air circulation system whereby outflow gas from the headspace could be analyzed for CO2 and CH4 to determine flux of C from the soil-water column to the atmosphere. Gaseous C flux was determined for flooded conditions (10-cm water depth) and for water levels of 0, 5, 10, and 15 cm below the peat surface. Overall, decreasing water level resulted in significantly increased C flux, although rates were significantly higher under flooded conditions than under nonflooded, saturated-soil conditions, presumably due to O2 availability associated with algal photosynthesis within the litter layer in the water column. Carbon flux decreased significantly for sites increasingly distant from the primary hydrologic and nutrient inflows to WCA-2A. The microcosm study demonstrated that the C turnover rate was significantly increased by accelerated nutrient loading to the marsh, and was further enhanced by decreasing water level under drained conditions. Our results also demonstrated that photosynthesis within the water column is a potentially important regulator of C mineralization rate in the litter layer of the marsh system.     

Large-scale constructed wetlands for nutrient removal from stormwater runoff: An everglades restoration project

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) constructed a wetland south of Lake Okeechobee to begin the process of removing nutrients (especially phosphorus) from agricultural stormwater runoff entering the Everglades. The project, called the Everglades Nutrient Removal (ENR) project, is a prototype for larger, similarly constructed wetlands that the SFWMD will build as part of the Everglades restoration program. This innovative project is believed to be one of the largest agricultural stormwater cleanup projects in the United States, if not in the world. This publication describes the ENR project's design, construction, and proposed operation, as well as the proposed research program to be implemented over the next few years.     

奥运湖不同补水方案营养状态趋势分析

规划中的奥运湖位于奥林匹克公园，运行中将采用人工补水方式。为保证未来奥运湖的正常景观生态功能，源水经奥运公园中人工湿地处理后再引入湖中。在规划设计阶段，提出三种补水方案：（1）清河再生水厂出水经湿地处理后入湖，（2）清河河水经湿地处理后入湖，（3）经湿地处理达地表水环境标准中的Ⅳ类水要求后入湖。为了考察不同水源补水方案对奥运湖的水质保障程度，本研究对不同方案下奥运公园湖水质的时间、空间变化过程予以模拟，分析评价奥运湖可能出现的富营养化状况，并对各个补水方案带来的富营养化风险和基本成因予以推断，为奥运湖的设计运行提供技术依据。结果表明，方案3的富营养化风险最小、水质保障程度最高。结合三种补水方案水质特点，推断磷是主要限制因子，所以控制磷的浓度是保证水质安全、降低富营养化风险的重要途径。     

Particulate phosphorus removal via wetland filtration: An examination of potential for hypertrophic lake restoration

Lake Apopka in Florida, USA, is a large (area=124 km²), hypertrophic (mean total phosphorus=0.220 g/m³; mean chlorophylla=60 mg/m³) lake, with a large sedimentary store of available P (1635 × 10⁶ g P). Phosphorus loading from floodplain farms (132 × 10⁶ g P/yr) has been the primary cause of eutrophication. Assuming elimination of farm P loading, the Vollenweider model predicts a decline in equilibrium P concentration from 0.270 to 0.024 g/m³, if the P sedimentation coefficient (σ) remains constant. It is likely, however, that the value for σ will fall with the elimination of farm loading due to unabated internal P loading from the sediments. Under a worst-case scenario (σ=0), the model predicts that exportation of P from the lake via wetland filtration will greatly accelerate the lake's recovery. Recirculation of lake water through a 21-km², created wetland and elimination of farm P loading is projected to result in a negative P balance for the lake (−23 × 10⁶ g P/yr) leading to depletion of P stores in the lake in about 60 yr. The estimated cost of the project, $20 million, is less than 3% of the estimated cost of dredging. A 3.65-km² demonstration project is underway to test and refine the wetland filtration technique. We believe the technique could be cost-effective for other hypertrophic lakes.