Multi-criteria risk management with the use of <Emphasis Type="Italic">DecernsMCDA</Emphasis>: methods and case studies

Emerging challenges of risk management, environmental protection, and land-use planning requires integration of stakeholder values and expert judgment. The process of decision making in situation of high uncertainty can be assisted through the use of decision support systems (DSSs). Such DSSs are often based on tools for spatial data representation (GIS) and environmental models that are integrated using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). This paper presents DecernsMCDA implementing all major types of multi-criteria methods and tools (AHP, MAUT, Outranking) under the same user interface. In addition to providing ability for testing model uncertainty associated with selection of specific MCDA algorithms, DecernsMCDA implements new algorithms for parameter uncertainty analysis based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy sets. The paper illustrates application of DecernsMCDA for selecting remedial alternative at radiologically contaminated sites.     

Transaction Costs Economics of Irreplaceability: <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex ante</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex post</Emphasis> Evaluation of Conservation Networks’ Vulnerability to Environmental Shocks

The theoretical concept, “asset specificity,” is applied to real data in the context of Danish nature conservation network planning in order to produce illustrative examples of an economic measure of the network’s vulnerability to exogenous shocks to the species composition. Three different measures of asset specificity are quantified from the shadow value of eliminating a key species from the individual grid cells. This represents a novel approach and a different interpretation of the term, as it is conventionally used as a qualitative indicator in the transaction cost economics literature. Apart from supplementing existing cost measures with an indicator of risk associated with investments in protected areas, this study demonstrates how the estimation and interpretation of various asset specificity measures for geographical areas may qualify policy makers’ choice of policy instrument in conservation planning. This differs from the more intuitive approach of basing policy instrument choice solely on the rarity of the species in a given area.     

Climate change impact on the density of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Faidherbia albida</Emphasis> on smallholder farms in the degraded lands of Kano,northern Nigeria

Nigeria’s vegetation in general and some important tree species in particular are under increasing threats from several factors. Worsening climate and environmental conditions, enhanced by a huge population pressure on limited resources, are some of the dominant issues of discourse among scientists. This study investigated the density of Faidherbia albida, a nitrogen-fixing tree, that has been an important component of the farming systems of the smallholder farms in the degraded lands of Kano, Nigeria. Results indicate a 55% decrease in the density of the tree in the study area. The overall diversity of trees on the smallholder farms has also declined by 38%. The study concludes that while climate change may be a catalyst, woodfuel extraction and disease are the immediate factors for the decline of F. indica in the area. It recommends (1) the inclusion of this species in the list of endangered species for deliberate regeneration and protection by all stakeholders (2) an extended study that could lead to determining the specific role of climate change on the density of the tree in the study area.     

Introduced Species and Management of a <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nothofagus/Austrocedrus</Emphasis> Forest

Isla Victoria (Nahuel Huapi National Park, Argentina), a large island dominated by native Nothofagus and Austrocedrus forest, has old plantations of many introduced tree species, some of which are famed invaders of native ecosystems elsewhere. There are also large populations of introduced deer and shrubs that may interact in a complex way with the introduced trees, as well as a recently arrived population of wild boar. Long-standing concern that the introduced trees will invade and transform native forest may be unwarranted, as there is little evidence of progressive invasion, even close to the plantations, despite over 50 years of opportunity. Introduced and native shrubs allow scattered introduced trees to achieve substantial size in abandoned pastures, but in almost all areas neither the trees nor the shrubs appear to be spreading beyond these sites. These shrub communities may be stable rather than successional, but the technology for restoring them to native forest is uncertain and probably currently impractical. Any attempt to remove the exotic tree seedlings and saplings from native forest would probably create the very conditions that would favor colonization by exotic plants rather than native trees, while simply clear-cutting the plantations would be unlikely to lead to regeneration of Nothofagus or Austrocedrus. The key to maintaining native forest is preventing catastrophic fire, as several introduced trees and shrubs would be favored over native dominant trees in recolonization. Deer undoubtedly interact with both native and introduced trees and shrubs, but their net effect on native forest is not yet clear, and specific management of deer beyond the current hunting by staff is unwarranted, at least if preventing tree invasion is the goal. The steep terrain and shallow soil make the recently arrived boar a grave threat to the native forest. Eradication is probably feasible and should be attempted quickly.     

Drought Resilience of the California Central Valley Surface‐Ground‐Water‐Conveyance System1

Abstract: A series of drought simulations were performed for the California Central Valley using computer applications developed by the California Department of Water Resources and historical datasets representing a range of droughts from mild to severe for time periods lasting up to 60 years. Land use, agricultural cropping patterns, and water demand were held fixed at the 2003 level and water supply was decreased by amounts ranging between 25 and 50%, representing light to severe drought types. Impacts were examined for four hydrologic subbasins, the Sacramento Basin, the San Joaquin Basin, the Tulare Basin, and the Eastside Drainage. Results suggest the greatest impacts are in the San Joaquin and Tulare Basins, regions that are heavily irrigated and are presently overdrafted in most years. Regional surface water diversions decrease by as much as 70%. Stream‐to‐aquifer flows and aquifer storage declines were proportional to drought severity. Most significant was the decline in ground water head for the severe drought cases, where results suggest that under these scenarios the water table is unlikely to recover within the 30‐year model‐simulated future. However, the overall response to such droughts is not as severe as anticipated and the Sacramento Basin may act as ground‐water insurance to sustain California during extended dry periods.     

Twenty‐One‐Year Simulation of Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Using the CE‐QUAL‐ICM Eutrophication Model

The CE‐QUAL‐ICM (Corps of Engineers Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model) eutrophication model was applied in a 21‐year simulation of Chesapeake Bay water quality, 1985‐2005. The eutrophication model is part of a larger model package and is forced, in part, by models of atmospheric deposition, watershed flows and loads, and hydrodynamics. Results from the model are compared with observations in multiple formats including time series plots, cumulative distribution plots, and statistical summaries. The model indicates only one long‐term trend in computed water quality: light attenuation deteriorates circa 1993 through the end of the simulation. The most significant result is the influence of physical processes, notably stratification and associated effects (e.g., anoxic volume), on computed water quality. Within the application period, physical effects are more important determinants of year‐to‐year variability in computed water quality than external loads.     

INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF IN‐FIELD,EDGE‐OF‐FIELD,AND AFTER‐FIELD BUFFERS1

This review summarizes how conservation benefits are maximized when in‐field and edge‐of‐field buffers are integrated with each other and with other conservation practices such as residue management and grade control structures. Buffers improve both surface and subsurface water quality. Soils under permanent buffer vegetation generally have higher organic carbon concentrations, higher infiltration capacities, and more active microbial populations than similar soils under annual cropping. Sediment can be trapped with rather narrow buffers, but extensive buffers are better at transforming dissolved pollutants. Buffers improve surface runoff water quality most efficiently when flows through them are slow, shallow, and diffuse. Vegetative barriers ‐ narrow strips of dense, erect grass ‐ can slow and spread concentrated runoff. Subsurface processing is best on shallow soils that provide increased hydrologic contact between the ground water plume and buffer vegetation. Vegetated ditches and constructed wetlands can act as “after‐field” conservation buffers, processing pollutants that escape from fields. For these buffers to function efficiently, it is critical that in‐field and edge‐of‐field practices limit peak runoff rate and sediment yield in order to maximize contact time with buffer vegetation and minimize the need for cleanout excavation that destroys vegetation and its processing capacity.     

On the contested nature of place: ‘Figuera’s Well’, ‘The Hole of Shame’ and the ideological struggle over public space in Barcelona

This paper explores some of the discursive practices through which the place meanings are formulated, warranted and, above all, contested. Drawing particularly on the work of the social psychologist Michael Billig, we present a rhetorical analysis of newspaper reports and interview accounts about the ‘development’ of a contested public space in Barcelona, known locally both as Figuera’s Well and the Hole of Shame. This analysis explores a number of rhetorically opposed constructions of the nature, purpose and appropriate beneficiaries of this place, whose implications are discussed both within the context of local power struggles and within the context of wider ideological struggles over the nature of public spaces in Barcelona. We argue that a rhetorical perspective reveals how practices of attributing meaning and value to places are often more conflict-ridden, action-oriented, and politically-charged than is implied by much research in environmental psychology. Relatedly, we argue that environmental psychologists need to complement a ‘weak’ conception of the role of conflict in the formation of public space (focused on subjective differences in environmental tastes, preferences and values) with a ‘strong’ conception of the role of conflict (focused on ideological struggles over access, equality and inclusion).     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Laudato sì</Emphasis> and the New Paradigm of Catholic Environmental Ethics: Reflections on Environmentalist Movements in Italy

This article explores certain aspects related to the environmental ethical message in the Encyclical Letter Laudato si, written in 2015 by Pope Francis, leader of the Catholic Church, and compares them to recent Green party political movements in Italy. Italy offers a unique case study in that the religious background of the country acts as an independent variable with respect to the social acceptance of current environmental issues. The ethical message in Laudato sì is compared to recent debates on the moral responsibility of the individual and/or institution towards environmental problems; a range of responsibilities assumed by institutions versus individuals with regards to environmental problems are analyzed. In conclusion, parallels are made between the abovementioned ethical debate and the ethical contents of the Encyclical Letter.     

Historical Analysis of SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Pollution Control Policies in China

Coal is not only an important energy source in China but also a major source of air pollution. Because of this, China’s national sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions have been the highest in the world for many years, and since the 1990s, the territory of China’s south and southwest has become the third largest acid-rain-prone region in the world. In order to control SO₂ emissions, the Chinese government has formulated and promulgated a series of policies and regulations, but it faces great difficulties in putting them into practice. In this retrospective look at the history of SO₂ control in China, we found that Chinese SO₂ control policies have become increasingly strict and rigid. We also found that the environmental policies and regulations are more effective when central officials consistently give environmental protection top priority. Achieving China’s environmental goals, however, has been made difficult by China’s economic growth. Part of this is due to the practice of environmental protection appearing in the form of an ideological “campaign” or “storm” that lacks effective economic measures. More recently, better enforcement of environmental laws and regulations has been achieved by adding environmental quality to the performance assessment metrics for leaders at all levels. To continue making advances, China needs to reinforce the economic and environmental assessments for pollution control projects and work harder to integrate economic measures into environmental protection. Nonetheless, China has a long way to go before economic growth and environmental protection are balanced.     

“One thing leads to another”—Commodities,linkages and industrial development

With a particular focus on low income economies in SSA, this paper addresses the nature and determinants of linkages from the commodities sectors and challenges the received view that enclave development is an inherent characteristic of resource extraction, particularly in the hard and energy commodities sectors. It argues that there has been a steady increase in linkage development and that there are significant opportunities for deepening this process. The opportunities may be greater for backward than for forward linkages, particularly in the minerals and energy sectors. In making this case, this Discussion Paper draws on the experience of high income countries which have resource intensive economic structures, the geographical specificity of many resources and the growing interest of large resource extracting firms in outsourcing the production of inputs which are outside of their core competences and in supporting local production of some inputs, it sets out a general model of linkage development which distinguishes between win–win and win–lose outcomes.     

Effect of bioremediation on the growth of Okro (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Abelmoshus esculetus</Emphasis>) in the Niger Delta soils

This paper communicates the effect of bioremediation on the performance of Okro plant (Abelmoshus esculentus) in a typical Niger Delta soil that has received 5% crude oil pollution level. Biodegrading bacteria such as Pseudomonas fluorescen, Acinetobacteria iwofii, Bacillus subtilus, Arthrobacter globiformis that was isolated from previously polluted soils was introduced into the samples. The treatment combinations are as follows (A) = control without crude oil; B = soil + crude oil, (C) = soil + crude oil + microbes, (D) = soil + crude oil + microbes, (E) = soil + crude oil + microbes + fertilizer (F) soil + microbes and (G) = soil + fertilizer. The treatment (E) gave the highest number of leaves, % crop emergence, plant biomass, microbial population and degradation of petroleum hydrocarbon compared to any of the treatments that had received crude oil. This suggested that fertilizer application does not only stimulate microbial growth but it provides the plant with more available nutrients required for plant growth.     

The Impact of Different Grazing Periods in Dry Grasslands on the Expansive Grass <Emphasis Type="Italic">Arrhenatherum elatius</Emphasis> L. and on Woody Species

Dry grasslands are one of the most species rich and endangered types of vegetation in Europe. In the Czech Republic, dry grasslands are mainly of anthropogenic origin and were formed as a result of grazing after the clear-cutting of thermophilous oak woods. Gradual changes in the farming landscape throughout the 20th century, particularly in the 1960s, resulted in the abandonment of the relatively infertile habitats of dry grasslands. After abandonment, dry grasslands decline and degrade due to the gradual overgrowth of woody species and expansion of perennial tall grasses. In the year 2000, a grazing management program was introduced in the protected areas within the territory of Prague City to maintain the species diversity of dry grasslands. The responses of the expansive grass species, Arrhenatherum elatius L. and multiple woody species (especially, Prunus spinosa L.) to differences in grazing periods were monitored for over a decade. Grazing in spring through the end of June had the greatest impact on the reduction of A. elatius and woody species. Grazing in the height of summer through autumn did not reduce the cover of these plants, and may support the prosperity of both A. elatius and the woody species due to higher levels of nutrients.     

Response to ‘Discussion of the paper “Cost effective policies for alternative distributions of stochastic water pollution” by Gren, Destouni and Tempone’ by Kampas and Adamidis

The note by Kampas and Adamidis (2004; KA) argues for a series of limitations in the paper by [Gren, I.-M., Destouni, G., Tempone R., 2002. Cost effective policies for alternative distributions of stochastic water pollution. Journal of Environmental Management, 66, 145–157.]. We systematically go through and reply to the arguments made by KA, showing that they are all based on misunderstanding of the pollutant load quantities involved in the GDT study and of the scope and purpose of the study. Specifically, the KA arguments are critically based on the invalid assumption of log-normality in individual, basin-scale annual pollutant loads, which are the basic pollutant transport quantities involved in the GDT study. We show that GDT never made, or had physical reason to make any such assumption, whereby the following KA arguments become irrelevant.     

Discounted knowledges: farmers» and residents» understandings of nature conservation goals and policies

Local Biodiversity Action Plans are the preferred policy mechanism for setting and delivering local biodiversity targets in the UK. This paper reviews the kind of knowledge conservation scientists envisage being used to identify and set local targets, and explores the means of incorporating local knowledge into this process. We use a case study of a Wildlife Enhancement Scheme (WES) on the Pevensey Levels, East Sussex, to reveal the understandings that local farmers and residents have of the nature conservation goals and practices associated with the scheme. Drawing on the findings of in-depth discussion groups, we show how farmers challenge both the monopoly of knowledge conservationists profess about nature, and the enlistment of farmers on the scheme as «technicians», motivated solely by financial rewards, rather than as knowledgeable experts who also have emotional attachments and ethical values for nature. Local people use their knowledge of both local farmers, and the industry in general, to challenge the assumption that farmers can be trusted with delivering nature conservation goals. In the absence of a commitment by central government to agree widely-held environmental standards, and a more democratic process of making judgements about what local nature is worth conserving, local residents challenge existing processes designed to conserve nature that are driven by the knowledge and practices of official experts alone. The findings of the study suggest that a widening of the knowledge base on which the goals and practices of nature conservation are founded, and a more deliberative process of making decisions about what nature is important locally, will secure and strengthen public support for local biodiversity action plans.1998 Academic Press     

The sense of snow – Individuals’ perception of fatal avalanche events

This empirical paper aims at examining individuals’ risk perception in the context of an environmental disaster. Risk is defined as probability of dying in a snow avalanche. Risk perception is analyzed from two different perspectives: (i) individuals’ estimate of the average avalanche risk and (ii) the perceived personal avalanche risk. The perception of personal risk is summarized in an ordered categorical variable, average risk perception is captured by a measurement previously used in risk communication that results in a continuous variable. The variation in risk perception observed is examined by using individual leisure activities (skiing) and the timing of the survey (fall vs. winter) as proxies for frequency, familiarity, controllability, voluntariness, and beneficiary of risk exposure and by including several individual specific characteristics such as age, gender, education, income. The results show that risk as well as individual specific characteristics are significant determinants of participants’ perception of risk but their relevance differs depending on whether the focus is on perception of average risk or of personal risk.     

‘Reserves’ as a leading indicator to future mineral production

The factors which influence the size and value of mineral reserves are discussed and an example is given of a more rigorous system for measuring supplies of non-renewable resources.The extent to which reserves and resources of minerals can be used as leading indicators of future mineral production is examined and examples of the dangers of over-reliance on this factor are described.Key aspects, such as confidence limits, differences in the economic exploitability, the dynamic nature of reserves, and their variability in grade, are examined in some detail using the South African coal industry as an example.     

Metal contamination of surface water,sediment and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tympanotonus fuscatus</Emphasis> var. <Emphasis Type="Italic">radula</Emphasis> of Iko River and environmental impact due to Utapete gas flare station,Nigeria

Inter-seasonal studies on the trace metal load of surface water, sediment and Tympanotonus fuscatus var. radula of Iko River were conducted between 2003 and 2004. The impact of anthropogenic activities especially industrial effluent, petroleum related wastes, gas flare and episodic oil spills on the ecosystem are remarkable. Trace metals analyzed included cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), lead (Pb), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn). Sediment particle size analysis revealed that they were characteristically psammitic and were predominantly of medium to fine grained sand (>73%), less of silt (<15%) and clay (<10%). These results correlated with low levels of trace elements such as Pb (0.03 ± 0.02 mg kg⁻¹), Cr (0.22 ± 0.12 mg kg⁻¹), Cd (0.05 ± 0.03 mg kg⁻¹), Cu (0.04 ± 0.02 mg kg⁻¹) and Mn (0.23 ± 0.22 mg kg⁻¹) in the sediment samples. This observation is consistent with the scarcity of clayey materials known to be good scavengers for metallic and organic contaminants. Sediments indicated enhanced concentration of Fe, Ni and V, while other metal levels were relatively low. The concentrations of all the metals except Pb in surface water were within the permissible levels, suggesting that the petroleum contaminants had minimal effect on the state of pollution by trace metals in Iko River. Notably, the pollutant concentrations in the sediments were markedly higher than the corresponding concentrations in surface water and T. fuscatus tissues, and decreased with distance from point sources of pollution.     

Long‐Term High‐Resolution Radar Rainfall Fields for Urban Hydrology

Accurate records of high‐resolution rainfall fields are essential in urban hydrology, and are lacking in many areas. We develop a high‐resolution (15 min, 1 km²) radar rainfall data set for Charlotte, North Carolina during the 2001‐2010 period using the Hydro‐NEXRAD system with radar reflectivity from the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler weather radar located in Greer, South Carolina. A dense network of 71 rain gages is used for estimating and correcting radar rainfall biases. Radar rainfall estimates with daily mean field bias (MFB) correction accurately capture the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall, but bias correction at finer timescales can improve cold‐season and tropical cyclone rainfall estimates. Approximately 25 rain gages are sufficient to estimate daily MFB over an area of at least 2,500 km², suggesting that robust bias correction is feasible in many urban areas. Conditional (rain‐rate dependent) bias can be removed, but at the expense of other performance criteria such as mean square error. Hydro‐NEXRAD radar rainfall estimates are also compared with the coarser resolution (hourly, 16 km²) Stage IV operational rainfall product. Stage IV is adequate for flood water balance studies but is insufficient for applications such as urban flood modeling, in which the temporal and spatial scales of relevant hydrologic processes are short. We recommend the increased use of high‐resolution radar rainfall fields in urban hydrology.     

Field‐Scale Application of Three Types of Neural Networks to Predict Ground‐Water Levels1

Abstract: In this paper, a field‐scale applicability of three forms of artificial neural network algorithms in forecasting short‐term ground‐water levels at specific control points is presented. These algorithms are the feed‐forward back propagation (FFBP), radial basis networks (RBN), and generalized regression networks (GRN). Ground‐water level predictions from these algorithms are in turn to be used in an Optimized Regional Operations Plan that prescribes scheduled wellfield production for the coming four weeks. These models are up against each other for their accuracy of ground‐water level predictions on lead times ranging from a week to four weeks, ease of implementation, and execution times (mainly training time). In total, 208 networks of each of the three algorithms were developed for the study. It is shown that although learning algorithms have emerged as a viable solution at field scale much larger than previously studied, no single algorithm performs consistently better than others on all the criteria. On average, FFBP networks are 20 and 26%, respectively, more accurate than RBN and GRN in forecasting one week ahead water levels and this advantage drops to 5 and 9% accuracy in forecasting four weeks ahead water levels, whereas GRN posted a training time that is only 5% of the training time taken by that of FFBP networks. This may suggest that in field‐scale applications one may have to trade between the type of algorithm to be used and the degree to which a given objective is honored.