渤海湾海洋资源、生态和环境承载力评价

在海洋经济快速增长的同时,由于海域污染造成的海洋生态环境破坏等问题,严重制约了海洋资源、生态和环境的可持续发展.结合国内外海洋资源、生态和环境承载力研究方法,将人口、社会经济、海洋资源、生态和环境系统服务功能纳入一个综合系统,将海洋生态系统服务功能引入到承载力评价指标体系和研究方法中,构建了以系统动力学(SD)模型、状态空间评价模型、多目标规划( MOP)模型为主,以海洋生态系统服务功能价值评估、灰色预测模型GM(1,1)和曲线回归模型等为辅助手段的海洋资源-生态-环境承载力复合系统(以下简称复合系统),并选取渤海湾进行实证研究.通过复合系统在渤海湾的应用,定量评价和预测渤海湾的承载状况,为海洋开发与管理以及区域协调发展提供评价和决策支持的技术方法,促进中国海洋资源、生态和环境的可持续利用及海洋经济的可持续发展.     

滨海宜居环境评价指标体系的初步构建——以上海为例

立足滨海环境,在宜居环境和宜居城市等概念的基础上,提出了滨海宜居环境的概念.以上海为例,依据指标选择的原则,参照相关宜居城市评价指标体系,结合上海滨海环境特点,从社会文明度、经济富裕度、环境优美度、公共安全度和生活便宜度5大方面,建立了上海滨海宜居环境的评价指标体系.同时,按照初步建立的上海滨海宜居环境评价指标体系,上海的滨海环境宜居指数为86.54.按照等级划分标准,上海滨海环境为"宜居环境".     

基于环境与经济发展协调度评价的生态镇建设探讨——以徐州市大沙河镇为例

随着人地关系的矛盾越来越突出,处理好经济发展与环境保护的关系,将两者高度融合,做到环境与经济的持续协调发展逐渐受到各方重视.以徐州市大沙河镇为例,在区域环境与经济发展协调度评价的基础上探索生态镇的建设模式.结果表明,2010年大沙河镇的环境综合发展指数为1.584,经济综合发展指数为1.182,环境与经济发展的协调度为0.88,处于良好协调状态.最后在评价结果的基础上分析了大沙河生态镇建设的模式.     

区域环境—经济系统规划研究方法探讨

本文以某市化工区环境—经济系统为研究实例,探讨了区域环境—经济系统规划研究方法.寻求产值—排污—水质综合协调解方法,采用净收益(总产值减治理费用)作为评价目标,寻求净收益最大时的总体规划方案. 以环境—经济投入—产出矩阵为框架,建立目标参数规划模型,寻求不同技术状况、不同生产规模条件下的产值—排污协调解,又探讨了水环境标准约束下的某市化工区废水应治理量及治理费用的计算方法,提出以供决策者选择的40种方案,其中8种是源于4种背景条件下的目标参数规划的协调解.     

基于模糊综合评价的流域社会经济活动对太湖生态影响评价研究

太湖是我国的五大淡水湖之一。太湖流域是我国经济最发达、水污染最严重的地区之一，正面临着严重的环境问题。随着太湖流域社会经济的发展，太湖流域生态环境将承受更大的压力。因此，分析人类社会经济活动对太湖流域生态的影响，对研究太湖生态环境具有重要意义。采用系统分析的方法，围绕流域人类社会经济活动对湖泊生态安全的影响，建立湖泊生态安全的评价指标体系，利用层次分析法计算各指标因子的权重。在此基础上，以太湖流域2005年和2006年相关数据为依据，以MATLAB为工具，根据模糊数学的原理，利用多级模糊综合评价的方法对太湖进行生态综合评价，确定流域社会经济活动对整个湖泊生态系统的影响。研究结果表明，3个重要指数得分高低顺序依次为：水体环境状态指数＞水体污染负荷指数＞社会经济压力指数;除了点源污染以外，面源污染也是太湖流域生态环境问题的重要根源。     

有机污染物湿地生物降解实验规律研究

本文以苯，甲苯和萘为对象，通过实验研究，测定有机污染物的土壤－水吸附平衡过程，在水溶液中生物降解过程以及在湿地系统（即土壤－水－微生物系统）中生物降解过程，并以质量守恒定律为基础，建立有机污染物湿地生物降解过程综合数学模型，数学模型通过实验验证，利用模型，定量预测了污染物生物降解所需的时间和程度，并提出动力学因子FK，判断污染物湿地生物降解速度的控制因素，定量预测了污染物在土壤固相的浓度分布规律。     

沿海地区城镇化与生态环境协调发展的时空分析

通过构建城镇化与生态环境协调发展的综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法、协调度模型,对2003—2012年中国沿海地区的城镇化与生态环境发展过程及其协调程度进行时空分析。结果表明:(1)沿海地区城镇化综合指数不断提高,空间城镇化年均发展速度快于人口城镇化,而人口城镇化又快于生活城镇化,经济城镇化最低,且呈现出明显的区域集聚性特征。(2)生态环境综合指数呈波动上升趋势,生态环境压力加大,城镇化地区面临的生态环境问题更多。(3)2003—2005年,城镇化与生态环境协调度等级为中度失调,2006—2012年为轻度协调。     

天津市工业污染物排放特征及其成因的研究

基于1992—2008年天津环境经济数据,采用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型,建立了天津工业污染物排放与经济增长的科学评价模型,与典型的倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线不同,天津工业污染物排放模型有三次函数模型和指数函数模型,目前工业废气排放量和工业固体废物产生量处于上升趋势,而工业废水中的COD、工业烟尘和工业粉尘排放量出现下降趋势。通过计算工业污染物排放及其影响因子之间的灰色关联度,定量剖析1992年后天津工业污染物排放的库兹涅茨曲线的成因。结果表明,天津市环境污染变化的主要影响因子包括工业总产值、国际贸易(外商直接投资)、能源消费、城市发展、工业污染治理、环境科研投入以及排污费征收。     

系统仿真方法在环境规划预测中的应用

讨论了环境规划中区域社会-经济-环境模型建立的原则，提出了适合非定态城市发展过程中规划因子的预测方法，并给出了江苏靖江“十一五”期间环境规划中的具体应用。     

新疆城镇化与生态环境耦合协调发展时空区域差异评价研究

以新疆15个地、州、市为例,采用2004—2014年城镇化与生态环境统计数据,构建城镇化与生态环境评价指标体系,通过耦合协调度模型和地理信息系统来揭示城镇化和生态环境耦合协调时空演化规律。结果表明:(1)2004—2014年,新疆15个地、州、市中,除个别地区个别年份城镇化综合指数出现回落现象外,总体呈上升趋势;生态环境综合指数呈波动上升趋势。(2)在时间序列角度,协调度体现向上趋向性,没有明显的等级跳跃。(3)新疆城镇化和生态环境协调发展空间格局特点是地域差异很大、北疆水平高于南疆。     

Spatiotemporal differentiation and the obstacle factors influencing the coupling coordination between economic development and water pollution control capability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is a highly influential economic belt and an innovative demonstration belt for the protection and restoration of ecological and environmental systems. The dynamic coordination between economic development system (EDs) and water pollution control capability system (WPCCs) is a critical issue to be solved for regional sustainable development. However, this topic has not been adequately addressed in previous studies. To bridge this gap, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal differentiation and obstacle factors influencing the coupling coordination between EDs and WPCCs in the Chinese Five-Year Plan based on coupling coordination degree model and obstacle degree model. The main results suggest that (1) the comprehensive level of the comprehensive level of water pollution control capability presents an upward trend with the increase of economic development. A J-shaped relationship existed between the EDs and WPCCs. (2) The regions with rapid economic growth are mainly distributed in the Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Chongqing, and Sichuan. Moreover, water pollution control capability system shows this pattern, eastern regions?>?western regions?>?central regions. (3) The coupling coordination level of each region in the YREB has improved from a moderately unbalanced development level to a superiorly balanced development level from 2006 to 2019. (4) Per capita gross domestic product, gross product of tertiary industry, total volume of waste water treated, and per daily volume treated of sewage treatment facilities are the major indexes influencing the coordinated development of the EDs and WPCCs. These findings are conductive to formulating reasonable strategies for water environment protection and sustainable development and providing a direction for urban planning.

     

基于指标规范值的室内空气客观评价的概率神经网络模型

为了建立简单、普适、通用的概率神经网络的室内空气评价模型,在适当设定室内空气各项指标的参照值及指标值的规范变换式基础上,使室内空气同级标准不同指标的规范值差异尽可能小,从而用规范值表示的各指标都可用同一个规范指标"等效"替代。因此,概率神经网络隐层各类模式的基函数中心矢量的各指标分量值与同级标准所有15项指标规范值的均值等同。将基于指标规范值的概率神经网络模型用于室内空气的评价实例进行检验,验证了该模型的普适性、通用性和简便性。     

Interaction of Population Growth,Industrial Growth and Pollution Control

A model is developed which predicts the level of pollution as a function of time given the rate of waste production and the persistence of the pollutant. In general, waste production is a function of the population density and the degree of industrialization of a society. With pollution control programs it is possible to reduce the per capita waste production for a given degree of industrialization. The model demonstrates that in a growth economy such as that of the United States, pollution control programs by themselves only delay the inevitable increase in pollution levels. In the long run population and industrial growth are incompatible with pollution control.     

Spatial characteristics and influential mechanism of the coupling coordination degree of urban accessibility and human development index in China

To optimize the accessibility algorithm and quantify the potential relationship between human development index and traffic comprehensive accessibility system, this paper analyzed the spatial distribution pattern of urban accessibility and human development index of highway, railway, and aviation transportation systems using data on highway, railway, and aviation schedules based on GIS spatial analysis method. Furthermore, the coupling degree between human development index and accessibility and its influence mechanism on the city level in China were explored based on the super-efficiency data envelopment analysis model. Results showed as follows: (1) Spatial distribution of human development index from high to low was gradually changing from east to west. The spatial distribution of urban accessibility of the three traffic systems had an evident “Hu Huanyong Line” effect. (2) The coordination degree of urban accessibility and human development index spread in a ladder mode. High coordination of cities in North and East China and the central Yangtze River region forms the spatial distribution of urban development circles connecting an urban development belt. (3) Railway connectivity and control value were highly sensitive to human development index in cities where serious imbalance between accessibility and human development index. Highway connectivity and control value were highly sensitive to human development index in cities where high coordination between accessibility and human development index. The results would provide scientific references for spatial planning of transportation, economic, and social development of cities and coordinated development of urban agglomeration in China.

     

Forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory

In order to reduce the losses by water pollution, forewarning model for water pollution risk based on Bayes theory was studied. This model is built upon risk indexes in complex systems, proceeding from the whole structure and its components. In this study, the principal components analysis is used to screen out index systems. Hydrological model is employed to simulate index value according to the prediction principle. Bayes theory is adopted to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information which can make samples’ features preferably reflect and represent the totals to some extent. Forewarning level is judged on the maximum probability rule, and then local conditions for proposing management strategies that will have the effect of transforming heavy warnings to a lesser degree. This study takes Taihu Basin as an example. After forewarning model application and vertification for water pollution risk from 2000 to 2009 between the actual and simulated data, forewarning level in 2010 is given as a severe warning, which is well coincide with logistic curve. It is shown that the model is rigorous in theory with flexible method, reasonable in result with simple structure, and it has strong logic superiority and regional adaptability, providing a new way for warning water pollution risk.     

神经网络在次级河流回水区叶绿素a浓度预测中的应用

以长江次级河流之一的临江河为研究对象，探讨神经网络应用于次级河流回水区叶绿素a浓度短期预测的可行性。利用主成分分析法（PCA）选取对叶绿素a浓度影响较大的指标，在这些指标数据的基础上建立RBF神经网络模型。网络训练和测试的结果表明，模型模拟精度较高，说明RBF神经网络模型可以用于次级河流回水区叶绿素a浓度的短期预测。通过对临江河回水区叶绿素a影响因子的分析，表明控制水体中磷含量应是临江河回水区富营养化防治的重点。     

基于因子分析法优选河流水体中氮浓度预测方法的研究

定量的河流水体中氮浓度预测方法有很多种,如何优选出预测精度较高的方法一直是学术界多年来致力于研究的重点。本研究采用因子分析法对预测方法的精度评价指标进行分析,并建立了预测方法精度的评价模型,对回归分析法、神经网络法、灰色系统法和增长率统计法4种水体氮浓度预测方法进行综合评估,优选出精度较高的河流水体氮浓度预测模型——BP神经网络预测模型。结果表明,此评估模型对类似研究具有一定的参考价值,能为选择出合适的河流水体氮浓度预测方法提供依据。     

Computational fluid dynamics analysis of the effects of reactor configuration on disinfection efficiency.

The efficacy of disinfection processes in water purification systems is governed by several key factors, including reactor hydraulics, disinfectant chemistry, and microbial inactivation kinetics. The objective of this work was to develop a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to predict velocity fields, mass transport, chlorine decay, and microbial inactivation in a continuous flow reactor. The CFD model was also used to evaluate disinfection efficiency in alternative reactor designs. The CFD reactor analysis demonstrates that disinfection efficiency is affected by both kinetics and mixing state (i.e., degree of micromixing or segregation). Residence time distributions (RTDs) derived from tracer analysis do not describe intrinsic mixing conditions. The CFD-based disinfection models account for reactor mixing patterns by resolution of the reactor velocity field and thus provide a better prediction of microbial inactivation than models that use an RTD.     

The groundwater contribution to surface water contamination in a region with intensive agricultural land use (Noord-Brabant, The Netherlands)

Traditionally, monitoring of soil, groundwater and surface water quality is coordinated by different authorities in the Netherlands. Nowadays, the European Water Framework Directive (EU, 2,000) stimulates an integrated approach of the complete soil-groundwater-surface water system. Based on water quality data from several test catchments, we propose a conceptual model stating that stream water quality at different discharges is the result of different mixing ratios of groundwater from different depths. This concept is used for a regional study of the groundwater contribution to surface water contamination in the Dutch province of Noord-Brabant, using the large amount of available data from the regional monitoring networks. The results show that groundwater is a dominant source of surface water contamination. The poor chemical condition of upper and shallow groundwater leads to exceedance of the quality standards in receiving surface waters, especially during quick flow periods.     

干化床和芦苇床稳定污泥过程中的腐殖化特征简

通过现场实验，考查污泥干化床和污泥干化芦苇床稳定污泥过程中的腐殖质变化特征，重点分析了污泥腐殖化率和污泥腐殖化指数的变化情况。系统运行了3年，包括前2年的污泥负荷期和第3年的自然稳定期，检测分析在第3年进行。实验结果表明，污泥腐殖质含量历月变化不大，基本在1.1%~2.1%范围；总体上污泥的腐殖化率具有上升趋势，同一时间样品芦苇床中污泥的腐殖化率略高于干化床；污泥腐殖化指数呈上升趋势，但芦苇床略低于传统干化床；4—11月，干化床中的污泥腐殖化指数从0.079升高到0.742，芦苇床从0.042升高到0.715。经过3 y的稳定化处理，污泥的腐殖化程度和腐熟度得到有效提高。