Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost–benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost–benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to better evaluate the proposed methodology.     

Water quality associated public health risk in Bo, Sierra Leone

Human health depends on reliable access to safe drinking water, but in many developing countries only a limited number of wells and boreholes are available. Many of these water resources are contaminated with biological or chemical pollutants. The goal of this study was to examine water access and quality in urban Bo, Sierra Leone. A health census and community mapping project in one neighborhood in Bo identified the 36 water sources used by the community. A water sample was taken from each water source and tested for a variety of microbiological and physicochemical substances. Only 38.9% of the water sources met World Health Organization (WHO) microbial safety requirements based on fecal coliform levels. Physiochemical analysis indicated that the majority (91.7%) of the water sources met the requirements set by the WHO. In combination, 25% of these water resources met safe drinking water criteria. No variables associated with wells were statistically significant predictors of contamination. This study indicated that fecal contamination is the greatest health risk associated with drinking water. There is a need to raise hygiene awareness and implement inexpensive methods to reduce fecal contamination and improve drinking water safety in Bo, Sierra Leone.     

Mangrove vulnerability modelling in parts of Western Niger Delta, Nigeria using satellite images, GIS techniques and Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA)

Mangroves are known for their global environmental and socioeconomic value. Despite their importance, mangrove like other ecosystems is now being threatened by natural and human-induced processes that damage them at alarming rates, thereby diminishing the limited number of existing mangrove vegetation. The development of a spatial vulnerability assessment model that takes into consideration environmental and socioeconomic criteria, in spatial and non-spatial formats has been attempted in this study. According to the model, 11 different input parameters are required in modelling mangrove vulnerability. These parameters and their effects on mangrove vulnerability were selected and weighted by experts in the related fields. Criteria identification and selection were mainly based on effects of environmental and socioeconomic changes associated with mangrove survival. The results obtained revealed the dominance of socioeconomic criteria such as population pressure and deforestation, with high vulnerability index of 0.75. The environmental criteria was broadly dispersed in the study area and represents vulnerability indices ranging from 0.00?C0.75. This category reflects the greater influence of pollutant input from oil wells and pipelines and minimal contribution from climatic factors. This project has integrated spatial management framework for mangrove vulnerability assessment that utilises information technology in conjunction with expert knowledge and multi-criteria analysis to aid planners and policy/ decision makers in the protection of this very fragile ecosystem.     

Comparison of Nitrate Levels in Raw Water and Finished Water from Historical Monitoring Data on Iowa Municipal Drinking Water Supplies

Nitrate contamination of water sources is a concern where large amounts of nitrogen fertilizers are regularly applied to soils. Ingested nitrate from dietary sources and drinking water can be converted to nitrite and ultimately to N-nitroso compounds, many of which are known carcinogens. Epidemiologic studies of drinking water nitrate and cancer report mixed findings; a criticism is the use of nitrate concentrations from retrospective drinking water data to assign exposure levels. Residential point-of-use nitrate data are scarce; gaps in historical data for municipal supply finished water hamper exposure classification efforts. We used generalized linear regression models to estimate and compare historical raw water and finished water nitrate levels (1960s--1990s) in single source Iowa municipal supplies to determine whether raw water monitoring data could supplement finished water data to improve exposure assessment. Comparison of raw water and finished water samples (same sampling date) showed a significant difference in nitrate levels in municipalities using rivers; municipalities using other surface water or alluvial groundwater had no difference in nitrate levels. A regional aggregation of alluvial groundwater municipalities was constructed based on results from a previous study showing regional differences in nitrate contamination of private wells; results from this analysis were mixed, dependent upon region and decade. These analyses demonstrate using historical raw water nitrate monitoring data to supplement finished water data for exposure assessment is appropriate for individual Iowa municipal supplies using alluvial groundwater, lakes or reservoirs. Using alluvial raw water data on a regional basis is dependent on region and decade.     

An Approach to Multi-criteria Environmental Evaluation with Multiple Weight Assignment

In the domain of environmental protection, multi-criteria evaluation is used in cases where multiple alternatives, on the bases of multiple parameters, need to be evaluated. Depending on the particular goal of investigation, various approaches have been developed and applied. This various multi-criteria approaches differ in parameter weighting method, in data normalization method as well as in the method for assessment of alternatives. According to the applied multi-criteria methodology, the result, i.e., the rank of alternatives may differ to some extent. In this context, parameter weighting bears special significance in multi-criteria evaluation, while the choice of method is crucial for final result. The specificity of parameter weighting process in environment protection is directly related to pronounced interdisciplinary character of this area, as well as the large number of influential parameters. With this in mind, this paper presents an approach to multi-criteria evaluation which—through integration of three specific methods for parameter weighting—allows more flexible and multi-purpose application. Based on the established concept, a software application was developed. Besides automated parameter weighting, it also provides graphical interpretation of results. The developed approach and software have been verified on the case study related to evaluation of environmental loadings at six locations in the city of Novi Sad.     

A fuzzy multi-stakeholder multi-criteria methodology for water allocation and reuse in metropolitan areas

In this paper, a fuzzy decision making methodology is proposed to find a socially optimal scenario for allocating effluent of wastewater treatment plants and urban and suburban runoffs to agricultural regions and recharging aquifers. The presented methodology named modified fuzzy social choice (MFSC) considers multi-stakeholder multi-criteria problems under uncertainties inherent in a decision making process utilizing a fuzzy ranking method and the fuzzy social choice (FSC) theory. A set of water and wastewater allocation scenarios are proposed for water quantity and quality management of the study area, while six main stakeholders with conflicting utilities and different negotiation powers are involved. The proposed methodology is applied to Tehran metropolitan area, the capital city of Iran with the population of about 8 million people, to examine its applicability and effectiveness. The results shows that using fuzzy multi-stakeholder multi-criteria decision making method considering equal and different negotiation powers can lead to different outcomes. Based on the results, the MFSC method, which considers a number of decision makers having different negotiation powers, degrees of importance of decision making criteria, and some important uncertainties, performs more promising in real water resources management problems.     

A multi criteria analog model for assessing the vulnerability of rural catchments to road spills of hazardous substances

Road spills of hazardous substances are common in developing countries due to increasing industrialization and traffic accidents, and represent a serious threat to soils and water in catchments. There is abundant literature on equations describing the wash-off of pollutants from roads during a storm event and there are a number of watershed models incorporating those equations in storm water quality algorithms that route runoff and pollution yields through a drainage system towards the catchment outlet. However, methods describing catchment vulnerability to contamination by road spills based solely on biophysical parameters are scarce. These methods could be particularly attractive to managers because they can operate with a limited amount of easily collectable data, while still being able to provide important insights on the areas more prone to contamination within the studied watershed. The purpose of this paper was then to contribute with a new vulnerability model. To accomplish the goal, a selection of medium properties appearing in wash-off equations and routing algorithms were assembled and processed in a parametric framework based on multi criteria analysis to define the watershed vulnerability. However, parameters had to be adapted because wash-off equations and water quality models have been developed to operate primarily in the urban environment while the vulnerability model is meant to run in rural watersheds. The selected parameters were hillside slope, ground roughness (depending on land use), soil permeability (depending on soil type), distance to water courses and stream density. The vulnerability model is a spatially distributed algorithm that was prepared to run under the IDRISI Selva software, a GIS platform capable of handling spatial and alphanumeric data and execute the necessary terrain model, hydrographic and thematic analyses. For illustrative purposes, the vulnerability model was applied to the legally protected Environmental Protection Area (APA), located in the Uberaba region, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. In this region, the risk of accidents causing chemical spills is preoccupying because large quantities of dangerous materials are transported in two important distribution highways while the APA is fundamental for the protection of water resources, the riverine ecosystems and remnants of native vegetation. In some tested scenarios, model results show 60% of vulnerable areas within the studied area. The most sensitive parameter to vulnerability is soil type. To prevent soils from contamination, specific measures were proposed involving minimization of land use conflicts that would presumably raise the soil's organic matter and in the sequel restore the soil's structural functions. Additionally, the present study proposed the preservation and reinforcement of riparian forests as one measure to protect the quality of surface water.     

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability in the coastal region of Oman using DRASTIC index method in GIS environment

A study was carried out to develop a vulnerability map for Barka region in the North Batina of Oman using DRASTIC vulnerability index method in GIS environment. DRASTIC layers were created using data from published reports and the seven DRASTIC layers were processed by the ArcGIS geographic information system. Finally, DRASTIC maps were created for 1995 and 2004 to understand the long-term changes in the vulnerability index. DRASTIC vulnerability maps were evaluated using groundwater quality data such as chemical and biological parameters. DRASTIC vulnerability maps of 1995 and 2004 indicate that the northern part of Barka is more vulnerable to pollution than southern part and the central part of Barka also shows high relative vulnerability which is mostly related to the high conductivity values. Moreover, the changes in water level due to high abstraction rate of groundwater reflect in the vulnerability maps and low vulnerability area is increased in the southern part during 2004 compared to 1995. Moreover, regional distribution maps of nitrate, chloride and total and fecal coliforms are well correlated with DRASTIC vulnerability maps. In contrast to this, even though DRASTIC method predicted the central part of the study region is highly vulnerable, both chemical and biological parameters show lower concentrations in this region compared to coastal belt, which is mainly due to agricultural and urban development. In Barka, urban development and agricultural activities are very high in coastal region compared to southern and central part of the study area. Hence, this study concluded that DRASTIC method is also applicable in coastal region having ubiquitous contamination sources.     

Decision support methods for the environmental assessment of contamination at mining sites

Polluting mine accidents and widespread environmental contamination associated with historic mining in Europe and elsewhere has triggered the improvement of related environmental legislation and of the environmental assessment and management methods for the mining industry. Mining has some unique features such as natural background pollution associated with natural mineral deposits, industrial activities and contamination located in the three-dimensional sub-surface space, the problem of long-term remediation after mine closure, problem of secondary contaminated areas around mine sites and abandoned mines in historic regions like Europe. These mining-specific problems require special tools to address the complexity of the environmental problems of mining-related contamination. The objective of this paper is to review and evaluate some of the decision support methods that have been developed and applied to mining contamination. In this paper, only those methods that are both efficient decision support tools and provide a ‘holistic’ approach to the complex problem as well are considered. These tools are (1) landscape ecology, (2) industrial ecology, (3) landscape geochemistry, (4) geo-environmental models, (5) environmental impact assessment, (6) environmental risk assessment, (7) material flow analysis and (8) life cycle assessment. This unique inter-disciplinary study should enable both the researcher and the practitioner to obtain broad view on the state-of-the-art of decision support methods for the environmental assessment of contamination at mine sites. Documented examples and abundant references are also provided.     

Groundwater vulnerability assessment using DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC models in intense agriculture area of the Gangetic plains,India

Delineating areas susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources form an important component of sustainable management of groundwater resources. The present research aims at estimating vulnerability of groundwater by application of DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC models in the southern part of the Gangetic plains in the state of Bihar. The DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC models have considered seven parameters viz. depth to water level, net recharge, aquifer material, soil material, topography, impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity. A third model, Pesticide DRASTIC LU has been adopted by adding land use as an additional parameter, to assess its impact on vulnerability zonation. The DRASTIC model indicated two vulnerable categories, moderate and high, while the Pesticide DRASTIC model revealed moderate, high and very high vulnerable categories. Out of the parameters used, depth to water level affected the vulnerability most. The parameter caused least impact was topography in DRASTIC, while in case of Pesticide DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC LU models, the parameter was hydraulic conductivity. A linear regression between groundwater NO₃ concentrations and the vulnerability zonation revealed better correlation for Pesticide DRASTIC model, emphasising the effectiveness of the model in assessing groundwater vulnerability in the study region. Considering all three models, the most vulnerable areas were found to be concentrated mainly in two zones, (i) in the south-western part along Ekangarsarai-Islampur patch and (ii) around Biharsharif-Nagarnausa area in the central part. Both zones were characterised by intensive vegetable cultivation with urban areas in between.     

Tailoring groundwater quality monitoring to vulnerability: a GIS procedure for network design

Monitoring networks aiming to assess the state of groundwater quality and detect or predict changes could increase in efficiency when fitted to vulnerability and pollution risk assessment. The main purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology aiming at integrating aquifers vulnerability and actual levels of groundwater pollution in the monitoring network design. In this study carried out in a pilot area in central Italy, several factors such as hydrogeological setting, groundwater vulnerability, and natural and anthropogenic contamination levels were analyzed and used in designing a network tailored to the monitoring objectives, namely, surveying the evolution of groundwater quality relating to natural conditions as well as to polluting processes active in the area. Due to the absence of an aquifer vulnerability map for the whole area, a proxi evaluation of it was performed through a geographic information system (GIS) methodology, leading to the so called “susceptibility to groundwater quality degradation”. The latter was used as a basis for the network density assessment, while water points were ranked by several factors including discharge, actual contamination levels, maintenance conditions, and accessibility for periodical sampling in order to select the most appropriate to the network. Two different GIS procedures were implemented which combine vulnerability conditions and water points suitability, producing two slightly different networks of 50 monitoring points selected out of the 121 candidate wells and springs. The results are compared with a “manual” selection of the points. The applied GIS procedures resulted capable to select the requested number of water points from the initial set, evaluating the most confident ones and an appropriate density. Moreover, it is worth underlining that the second procedure (point distance analysis [PDA]) is technically faster and simpler to be performed than the first one (GRID?+?PDA).     

A Methodology for Space-Time Classification of Groundwater Quality

Safeguarding groundwater from civil, agricultural and industrial contamination is matter of great interest in water resource management. During recent years, much legislation has been produced stating the importance of groundwater as a source for drinking water supplies, underlining its vulnerability and defining the required quality standards. Thus, schematic tools, able to characterise the quality and quantity of groundwater systems, are of very great interest in any territorial planning and/or water resource management activity.This paper proposes a groundwater quality classification method which has been applied to a real aquifer, starting from several studies published by the Italian National Hydrogeologic Catastrophe Defence Group (GNDCI).The methodology is based on the concentration values of several parameters used as indexes of the natural hydro-chemical water condition and of potential man-induced modifications of groundwater quality. The resulting maps, although representative of the quality, do not include any information on its evolution in time. In this paper, this “stationary” classification method has been improved by crossing the quality classes with three indexes of temporal behaviour during recent years. It was then applied to data from monitoring campaigns, performed in spring and autumn, from 1990 to 1996, in the plain of Modena aquifer (central Italy). The results are reported in the form of space-time classification table and maps.     

Linking Hydrogeological and Ecological Tools for an Integrated River Catchment Assessment

Ecological (biological and hydrochemical assessment) and hydrogeological (vulnerability and pollution risk mapping) tools have been combined to assess the ecological quality and hydrogeological vulnerability of an agricultural river basin. In addition, the applicability of the recently developed vulnerability assessment approach (COP method) in the particular environmental conditions was tested by comparing its results with hydroecological assessment tools (i.e., pollution metrics). Five sampling sites were selected and sampled for benthic macroinvertebrates and physicochemical variables during summer and spring. Overall, sites ranged from moderate to poor ecological quality. The results illustrated that 26% of the study area was of moderate pollution risk, while 65% was classified as of low and very low risk zones. However, the higher elevation zones where calcareous rock formations are encountered presented moderate to high pollution risk that was accredited by the ecological quality assessment. Pollution metrics facilitated from hydrochemical analysis indicated a significant association with groundwater vulnerability, thus validating vulnerability and risk estimations. This study indicated that the particular groundwater pollution risk mapping methodology and the water quality assessment indices can be well combined to provide an integrated evaluation tool at a catchment scale.     

True and false positive rates in maximum contaminant level tests

The U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) is promulgating a revised national primary drinking water regulation (NPDWR) which includes a monthly sample size and maximum contaminant level (MCL) for total coliform bacteria in public water systems. No previous quantification has been made of the coliform content that must be present in the sampled water in order for an MCL to be exceeded. This paper presents a method for evaluating the coliform level an MCL will detect with likelihood P.Our approach is to treat an MCL as a decision rule, with Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) error rates. The stringency of an MCL is quantified as the mean coliform level in the sampled system that it will detect with likelihood P. MCLs are contrasted on stringency by comparing the mean coliform level each targets for detection, with fixed error rates.Interim rules (NIPDWR), in effect since 1975, are shown to vary widely on the coliform content each targets for detection, that is, on stringency. Yes/no decisions on contamination have not been decided based on mean coliform content. Coliform levels permitted in monitored public water systems have been determined by the particular MCL used for testing. The same coliform level will test positively with one MCL 90 times in 100 yet be guaranteed 95% nondetection by a second MCL.EPA's reasonably safe standard for drinking water is reformulated on our stringency criteria. Its proposed monthly MCL is evaluated on its capability for maintaining this standard. Smaller systems will not provide its users this level of protection under the new rule.In addition, our evaluation of the safe water standard on stringency and the rationale for a monthly MCL require that coliform levels be identically distributed (i.d.) across month and sampled system. Empirical data strongly refute this model and question the utility of a monthly MCL.This work suggests an alternative, single sample MCL, with repeat sampling for verification, which can be configured to provide monitoring to discover mean coliform values at any level, in any size of system, at minimal extra cost.     

CONCRETop - A multi-criteria decision method for concrete optimization

CONCRETop is a novel multi-criteria decision method developed by the authors of this study for concrete optimization, which can be used to optimize either conventional or non-conventional concrete mixes. It can be used to identify the main differences between concrete mixes in terms of three perspectives, namely quality performance, environmental impacts and cost efficiency, and the corresponding causes.The characteristics of concrete fundamentally depend on its target application (e.g. the structural design project). In other words, it depends on the requested characteristics demanded by the consumer. However, this method allows optimizing concrete mixes based on the three mentioned perspectives even if the specific characteristics of concrete for the selected application are unknown. For complicated cases like this one, five scenarios (business as usual, green, strength, service life, and cost) were proposed with different threshold values, in order to cover most of the construction cases (the majority of concrete applications).The major outcome of this method is to provide researchers with a validated approach to support the development of non-conventional materials with optimized technical performance and minimum cost, environmental impact and natural resources' consumption. The method is valid for any case studies and concrete mixes worldwide. Most importantly, this optimization process may change how we take care of the next generation and find sustainable alternative materials for the concrete industry.     

Use of cluster and principal component analyses to profile areas in California where ground water has been contaminated by pesticides

An empirical approach to profiling areas of ground water contamination by pesticides was devised that did not rely upon determining the level of vulnerability between land areas and that did not assume any particular pathway for ground water contamination. Climatic and soil data were obtained for 1-square mile sections of land in California where pesticide residues had been found in well water samples and the detection was attributed to legal agricultural applications. These sections were designated as known contaminated (KC) sections. Climate and soil data were also obtained for sections which lacked either well sampling data or a positive pesticide detection. These sections were designated as candidate sections. Statistical procedures were used to cluster groups of KC sections first with respect to climate characteristics and then with respect to soil characteristics. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to construct a statistical profile of soil variables for each cluster of KC sections. A method based on the PCA was developed to compare the similarity of soil profiles derived for each KC section cluster to individual candidate sections. Since the profiling scheme was based only on data from KC sections, candidate sections that did not match any KC cluster profile could only be considered dissimilar to contaminated sections, receiving a status of not-classified. This profiling method is flexible and it can be revised to incorporate updated well sampling information.     

Groundwater stress and vulnerability in rural coastal aquifers under competing demands: a case study from Sri Lanka

Rural coastal aquifers are undergoing rapid changes due to increasing population, high water demand with expanding agricultural and domestic uses, and seawater intrusion due to unmanaged water pumping. The combined impact of these activities is the deterioration of groundwater quality, public health concerns, and unsustainable water demands. The Kalpitiya peninsula located northwest of Sri Lanka is one area undergoing such changes. This land area is limited and surrounded almost completely by sea and lagoon. This study consists of groundwater sampling and analysis, and vulnerability assessment using the DRASTIC method. The results reveal that the peninsula is experiencing multiple threats due to population growth, seawater intrusion, land use exploitation for intensive agriculture, groundwater vulnerability from agricultural and domestic uses, and potential public health impacts. Results show that nitrate is a prevalent and serious contaminant occurring in large concentrations (up to 128 mg/l NO₃?CN), while salinity from seawater intrusion produces high chloride content (up to 471 mg/l), affecting freshwater sources. High nitrate levels may have already affected public health based on limited sampling for methemoglobin. The two main sources of nitrogen loadings in the area are fertilizer and human excreta. The major source of nitrogen results from the use of fertilizers and poor management of intense agricultural systems where a maximum application rate of up to 11.21 metric tons N/km² per season is typical. These findings suggest that management of coastal aquifers requires an integrated approach to address both the prevalence of agriculture as an economic livelihood, and increasing population growth.     

Total maximum daily load (TMDL) based sustainable basin growth and management strategy

This study focused on the development and application of the new approach 'Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) based sustainable basin growth and management strategy' to give better insight for the management of surface waters. The establishment of the proposed decision process mainly comprised: beneficial use designations-targets, interrogation of the ambient water quality, selection of variable(s) for TMDL analysis, water quality modeling, basin growth scenarios development and decision on the basin growth plan. The approach was validated through a systematic application study in a field case in Turkey, known as Tahtali Basin. Results revealed that decision process assists policy makers to develop realistic strategies that take into account the basin specific conditions.     

Water monitoring and treatment for drinking purposes in 2004 tsunami affected area—Ban Nam Khem, Phang Nga, Thailand

University of Brescia and Mahidol University of Bangkok developed a project in Phang Nga province (Thailand), the most damaged by 2004 tsunami. In particular, the study, performed between April and May 2006, dealt with the surface and ground water monitoring in Ban Nam Khem village and the experimental evaluation of possible drinking treatment alternatives. The monitoring highlighted that saline content in the tsunami affected area is decreasing but still very high (conductivity presented values up to 2,600 and 6,230 microS/cm in ground and surface water, respectively); hence, advanced and complicated processes such as reverse osmosis should be adopted to treat such water for drinking purposes. Waiting for ground water salinity to assume acceptable values, activities for the reduction of its organic and microbiological contamination will be started. However, it has to be underlined that the diffusion of drinking water to a greater part of population can be obtained only through the realization of new centralised treatment plants and the improvement of existing ones (serving at the moment about 20% of inhabitants).     

Numerical modelling of the environmental impact of landfill leachate leakage on groundwater quality – a field application

Waste disposal facilities are mainly responsible for the gradual quality degradation of subsurface freshwater reservoirs. The main objective of this work is to identify the groundwater contamination risk due to potential leachate leakage and seepage beneath the municipal landfill of the City of Patras in Greece. A groundwater and leachate mass transport model of the underlying aquifer was developed for this purpose. The derived simulation results indicate that, depending on the permeability of the soil at the location of leakage, the contamination risk for the groundwater can be high. In order to quantify the magnitude and the extent of the leakage, a risk assessment model for the leachate contaminant plume was developed. The risk assessment analysis shows that the municipal drinking wells are under high risk of contamination.