Spatial Economic–Hydroecological Modelling and Evaluation of Land Use Impacts in the Vecht Wetlands Area

Wetlands provide many important goods and services to human societies, and generate nonuse values as well. Wetlands are also very sensitive ecosystems that are subject to much stress from human activities. Reducing the stress on wetlands requires a spatial matching between physical planning, hydrological and ecological processes, and economic activities. Spatially integrated modelling and evaluation can support this. The present study has developed a triple layer model that integrates information and concepts from social and natural sciences to address the analysis and evaluation of land-use scenarios for a wetlands area in the Netherlands, the Vecht area. This is the floodplain of river Vecht, located in the centre of the Netherlands. The study has resulted in a set of linked spatial hydrological, ecological and economic models, formulated at the level of grids and polders. The main activities incorporated in the system of models are housing, infrastructure, agriculture, recreation and nature conservation. The formulation of alternative development scenarios is dominated by land use and land cover options that are consistent with the stimulation of agriculture, nature or recreation. Two aggregate performance indicators have been constructed from model output, namely net present value of changes and environmental quality. The spatial characteristics of these indicators are retained in a spatial evaluation that ranks scenarios.     

Can Basin Land Use Effects on Physical Characteristics of Streams Be Determined at Broad Geographic Scales?

The environmental setting (e.g., climate, topography, geology) and land use affect stream physical characteristics singly and cumulatively. At broad geographic scales, we determined the importance of environmental setting and land use in explaining variation in stream physical characteristics. We hypothesized that as the spatial scale decreased from national to regional, land use would explain more of the variation in stream physical characteristics because environmental settings become more homogeneous. At a national scale, stepwise linear regression indicated that environmental setting was more important in explaining variability in stream physical characteristics. Although statistically discernible, the amount of variation explained by land use was not remarkable due to low partial correlations. At level II ecoregion spatial scales (southeastern USA plains, central USA plains, and a combination of the western Cordillera and the western interior basins and ranges), environmental setting variables were again more important predictors of stream physical characteristics, however, as the spatial scale decreased from national to regional, the portion of variability in stream physical characteristics explained by basin land use increased. Development of stream habitat indicators of land use will depend upon an understanding of relations between stream physical characteristics and environmental factors at multiple spatial scales. Smaller spatial scales will be necessary to reduce the confounding effects of variable environmental settings before the effects of land use can be reliably assessed.     

On the intensity and type transition of land use at the basin scale using RS/GIS: a case study of the Hanjiang River Basin

The purpose of this study is to investigate the land use intensity and land use change type at the basin scale in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin (in Hubei Province, China) by combining the Landsat TM images in 1995 and 2000 with the land use database (in scale 1:10,000) and relative data. In this study, the basic data is acquired from the interpretation of remote sensing (RS) images. The intensity of land use and the rate of change in double-directions of land use dynamics are calculated with the support of software ARC/INFO. The intensity of land use is indicated by the intensity coefficient of land use, and the transition of land use types is quantified as the rate of change in double-direction of land use types and also expressed as the transition matrix of land use types. The results are expressed in space by Geographic Information System (GIS) software. Results of this study show that (1) the intensity of land use is high in the study region, the intensity coefficients of land use in 1995 and 2000 are 260.025 and 290.526, respectively, and the intensity of development and utilization of land is trend to increscent; and (2) the rate of land use change in double directions in the whole study region is 0.52 with great spatial variation and the differentiation of land use types. In the differentiation of land use types, the unutilized land (with the rate to 4.391) is developed fast, the grassland (with 2.836) and water area (with 1.664) are disturbed severely, and these changes will influence the eco-environment in the Hanjiang River Basin and all the Yangtze Basin. The rates of the farmland and the woodland are 0.424 and 0.344, respectively, meaning that the fundamentals of regional human-environmental system are relative stable. With this study, we can conclude that (1) the patterns of land use are increasingly changing in the study region, the environmental impacts are escalated on this stage, and the further outcomes are destined to change the stability of the regional human–environmental system; and (2) the most useful method to study the present land use and its change is through the use of the RS/GIS with the land use database (in scale 1:10,000).     

Regionalization of land use impact models for life cycle assessment: Recommendations for their use on the global scale and their applicability to Brazil

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the main technique for evaluate the environmental impacts of product life cycles. A major challenge in the field of LCA is spatial and temporal differentiation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods, especially impacts resulting from land occupation and land transformation. Land use characterization modeling has advanced considerably over the last two decades and many approaches have recently included crucial aspects such as geographic differentiation. Nevertheless, characterization models have so far not been systematically reviewed and evaluated to determine their applicability to South America. Given that Brazil is the largest country in South America, this paper analyzes the main international characterization models currently available in the literature, with a view to recommending regionalized models applicable on a global scale for land use life cycle impact assessments, and discusses their feasibility for regionalized assessment in Brazil. The analytical methodology involves classification based on the following criteria: midpoint/endpoint approach, scope of application, area of data collection, biogeographical differentiation, definition of recovery time and reference situation; followed by an evaluation of thirteen scientific robustness and environmental relevance subcriteria. The results of the scope of application are distributed among 25% of the models developed for the European context, and 50% have a global scope. There is no consensus in the literature about the definition of parameters such biogeographical differentiation and reference situation, and our review indicates that 35% of the models use ecoregion division while 40% use the concept of potential natural vegetation. Four characterization models show high scores in terms of scientific robustness and environmental relevance. These models are recommended for application in land use life cycle impact assessments, and also to serve as references for the development or adaptation of regional methodological procedures for Brazil.     

Determining the global significance of local and regional mitigation strategies: Setting the scene with global integrated assessment models

Because of the importance and complexity of the processes involved in the response of land cover and land use to changing environmental conditions, other approaches are required to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation options. One such approach is provided by the global integrated assessment model, IMAGE 2. This article presents the structure and some of the underlying assumptions of IMAGE 2, which illustrates the importance of feedback processes in evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation options with respect to land use. Although models such as IMAGE 2 are unsuitable for local and national mitigation evaluations, they can be used to define the regional and global constraints of the smaller scale assessments.     

Determining land use changes by radar-optic fused images and monitoring its environmental impacts in Edremit region of western Turkey

Rapid and unplanned urbanization and industrialization are the main reasons of environmental problems. If urban growth is not based on resource sustainability criteria and urban plans are not applied, natural and human resources are damaged dramatically. In this study, land use change and urban expansion in Edremit region of Turkey is determined by means of remote sensing techniques between 1971 and 2002. To improve the accuracy of land use/cover maps, the contribution of SAR images to optic images in defining land cover types was investigated. To determine the situation of land use/cover types in 2002 accurately, Landsat-5 images and Radarsat-1 images were fused, and the land use/cover types were defined from the fused images. Comparisons with the ground truth reveal that land use maps generated using the fuse technique are improved about 6% with an accuracy of 81.20%. To define land use types and urban expansion, screen digitizing and classification methods were used. The results of the study indicate that the urban areas have been increased 1,826 ha across the agricultural fields which are in land use capability classes of I and II, and significant environmental changes such as land degradation and degeneration of ground water quality occurred.     

2007—2017年三亚城市景观空间格局动态特征及驱动因素分析

应用2007—2017年期间4个时间点的遥感影像数据，选取典型景观格局指数，对三亚市的景观空间格局动态特征进行分析，探求其驱动因素。研究表明：近十年来，三亚市内同种土地利用类型的空间聚集程度降低，空间分布逐渐趋向于分散，不同类型的土地之间相互融合度较高，形状趋于复杂化，景观类型分布趋势呈均衡化，景观的破碎化程度加强，景观复杂程度增高，土地利用的丰富程度逐渐加强。通过驱动因素分析，国家政策的导向、城市总体规划的实施、产业结构调整及自然环境的变化是影响三亚城市景观空间格局变化的主要驱动因素。     

Moving from reactive to proactive development planning to conserve Indigenous community and biodiversity values

There is increased awareness of the need to balance multiple societal values in land use and development planning. Best practice has promoted the use of landscape-level conservation planning and application of the ‘mitigation hierarchy’, which focuses on avoiding, minimizing or compensating for impacts of development projects. However, environmental impact assessments (EIA) typically focus in a reactive way on single project footprints with an emphasis on environmental values and specifically biodiversity. This separation may miss opportunities to jointly plan for and manage impacts to both environmental and social values. Integrated approaches may have particular benefit in northern Australia, where Indigenous people have native title to as much as 60% of the land area and cultural values are closely linked with natural values. Here, we present a novel framework for integrating biodiversity and cultural values to facilitate use in EIA processes, using the Nyikina Mangala Native Title Determination Area in the Kimberley, Western Australia, as a case study. We demonstrate 1) how social and cultural values can be organized and analyzed spatially to support mitigation planning, 2) how social, cultural, and biodiversity values may reinforce each other to deliver better conservation outcomes and minimize conflict, and 3) how this information, in the hands of Indigenous communities, provides capacity to proactively assess development proposals and negotiate mitigation measures to conserve social, cultural, and biodiversity values following the mitigation hierarchy. Based on values defined through a Healthy Country Planning process, we developed spatial datasets to represent cultural/heritage sites, freshwater features, common native animals and plants represented by biophysical habitat types, and legally-protected threatened and migratory species represented by potential habitat models. Both cultural/heritage sites and threatened species habitat show a strong thematic and spatial link with freshwater features, particularly the Fitzroy River wetlands. We outline some of the challenges and opportunities of this process and its implications for the Northern Australia development agenda.     

Spatial based compromise programming for multiple criteria decision making in land use planning

Today, competing land use is continuing to occur in many developed regions. In the Agricultural Development Zone of Western Sydney Region, which is characterised by complex landscape patterns, land use competition is widespread. From a land use planning perspective, identification of suitable locations for a given type of land use is necessary for decision makers to formulate land use alternatives in different locations, based on existing land potential and constraints. For such a region, use of a simple method that implements a categorical system and considers only inherent land characteristics in the analysis is often inadequate to arrive at an optimal spatial decision. The primary aim of this paper is to develop spatial modelling procedures for agricultural land suitability analysis using compromise programming (CoPr) and fuzzy set approach within a geographical information systems (GIS) environment. Five main sets of spatial data for use as decision criteria were developed by using fuzzy set methodology: a land suitability index (LSI) for maximising the land productivity objective; an erosion tolerance index (ETI) for minimising the erosion risk objective; a runoff curve number (CN) for maximising the water discharge regulation objective; an accessibility (RP) measure for maximising the land accessibility objective; and the proximity to water body (WP) for minimising the water pollution objective. An L _p -metric was used in the analysis utilising different strategies with representative indices ranging from a situation where full tradeoff among criteria occurs to a noncompensatory condition. Different weighting combinations were also applied, and decision analysis was carried out by using values ranging from 0 to 1.0, where 1.0 is considered as an ideal point. The CoPr model demonstrated in this paper yielded a promising result, as several different techniques of sensitivity analysis show reasonably good results. Likewise, an overlay of that result with the present land use/land cover indicates a good corresponding spatial matching between existing land use (orchard and cultivated land), and the cells (land parcels) classified as the best in CoPr. The results are amenable to various map display techniques, either using continuous values or by defining different cut off points in the data space within a raster GIS environment.     

Multi-scale Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling by Use of Adaptive Gridding Techniques

An accurate prediction of the transport-reaction behaviour of atmospheric chemical species is required to fully understand the impact on the environment of pollution emissions. Elevated levels of secondary pollutants such as ozone in the lower atmosphere can be harmful to the health of both plants and animals, and can cause damage to property present in the urban environment. Detailed models of pollution mechanisms must therefore be developed through comparisons with field measurements to aid the selection of effective abatement policies. Such models must satisfy accuracy requirements both in terms of the number of species represented, and the spatial resolution of species profiles. Computational expense often compels current models to sacrifice detail in one of these areas. This paper attempts to address the latter point by presenting an atmospheric transport-reaction modelling strategy based upon a finite volume discretisation of the atmospheric dispersion equation. The source terms within this equation are provided by an appropriate reduced chemical scheme modelling the major species in the boundary layer. Reaction and transport discretisations are solved efficiently via a splitting technique applied at the level of the non-linear equations. The solution grid is generated using time dependant adaptive techniques, which provide a finer grid around regions of high spatial error in order to adequately resolve species concentration profiles. The techniques discussed are applied in two dimensions employing emissions from both point and area sources. Preliminary results show that the application of adaptive gridding techniques to atmospheric dynamics modelling can provide more accurately resolved species concentration profiles, accompanied by a reduced CPU time invested in solution. Such a model will provide the basis for high resolution studies of the multiple scale interactions between spatially inhomogeneous source patterns in urban and regional environments.     

Accuracy assessment of land surface temperature retrievals from Landsat 7 ETM + in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica using iButton temperature loggers and weather station data

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica are the largest snow/ice-free regions on this vast continent, comprising 1 % of the land mass. Due to harsh environmental conditions, the valleys are bereft of any vegetation. Land surface temperature is a key determinate of microclimate and a driver for sensible and latent heat fluxes of the surface. The Dry Valleys have been the focus of ecological studies as they arguably provide the simplest trophic structure suitable for modelling. In this paper, we employ a validation method for land surface temperatures obtained from Landsat 7 ETM + imagery and compared with in situ land surface temperature data collected from four transects totalling 45 iButtons. A single meteorological station was used to obtain a better understanding of daily and seasonal cycles in land surface temperatures. Results show a good agreement between the iButton and the Landsat 7 ETM + product for clear sky cases. We conclude that Landsat 7 ETM + derived land surface temperatures can be used at broad spatial scales for ecological and meteorological research.     

Monitoring the changing position of coastlines using aerial and satellite image data: an example from the eastern coast of Trabzon, Turkey

Coastline mapping and coastline change detection are critical issues for safe navigation, coastal resource management, coastal environmental protection, and sustainable coastal development and planning. Changes in the shape of coastline may fundamentally affect the environment of the coastal zone. This may be caused by natural processes and/or human activities. Over the past 30 years, the coastal sites in Turkey have been under an intensive restraint associated with a population press due to the internal and external touristic demand. In addition, urbanization on the filled up areas, settlements, and the highways constructed to overcome the traffic problems and the other applications in the coastal region clearly confirm an intensive restraint. Aerial photos with medium spatial resolution and high resolution satellite imagery are ideal data sources for mapping coastal land use and monitoring their changes for a large area. This study introduces an efficient method to monitor coastline and coastal land use changes using time series aerial photos (1973 and 2002) and satellite imagery (2005) covering the same geographical area. Results show the effectiveness of the use of digital photogrammetry and remote sensing data on monitoring large area of coastal land use status. This study also showed that over 161 ha areas were filled up in the research area and along the coastal land 12.2 ha of coastal erosion is determined for the period of 1973 to 2005. Consequently, monitoring of coastal land use is thus necessary for coastal area planning in order to protecting the coastal areas from climate changes and other coastal processes.     

Using exploratory regression to identify optimal driving factors for cellular automaton modeling of land use change

Defining transition rules is an important issue in cellular automaton (CA)-based land use modeling because these models incorporate highly correlated driving factors. Multicollinearity among correlated driving factors may produce negative effects that must be eliminated from the modeling. Using exploratory regression under pre-defined criteria, we identified all possible combinations of factors from the candidate factors affecting land use change. Three combinations that incorporate five driving factors meeting pre-defined criteria were assessed. With the selected combinations of factors, three logistic regression-based CA models were built to simulate dynamic land use change in Shanghai, China, from 2000 to 2015. For comparative purposes, a CA model with all candidate factors was also applied to simulate the land use change. Simulations using three CA models with multicollinearity eliminated performed better (with accuracy improvements about 3.6%) than the model incorporating all candidate factors. Our results showed that not all candidate factors are necessary for accurate CA modeling and the simulations were not sensitive to changes in statistically non-significant driving factors. We conclude that exploratory regression is an effective method to search for the optimal combinations of driving factors, leading to better land use change models that are devoid of multicollinearity. We suggest identification of dominant factors and elimination of multicollinearity before building land change models, making it possible to simulate more realistic outcomes.     

A hydrologic network supporting spatially referenced regression modeling in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a methodology for statistically relating nutrient sources and land-surface characteristics to nutrient loads of streams. The methodology is referred to as SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW), and relates measured stream nutrient loads to nutrient sources using nonlinear statistical regression models. A spatially detailed digital hydrologic network of stream reaches, stream-reach characteristics such as mean streamflow, water velocity, reach length, and travel time, and their associated watersheds supports the regression models. This network serves as the primary framework for spatially referencing potential nutrient source information such as atmospheric deposition, septic systems, point-sources, land use, land cover, and agricultural sources and land-surface characteristics such as land use, land cover, average-annual precipitation and temperature, slope, and soil permeability. In the Chesapeake Bay watershed that covers parts of Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, West Virginia, and Washington D.C., SPARROW was used to generate models estimating loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus representing 1987 and 1992 land-surface conditions. The 1987 models used a hydrologic network derived from an enhanced version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's digital River Reach File, and course resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). A new hydrologic network was created to support the 1992 models by generating stream reaches representing surface-water pathways defined by flow direction and flow accumulation algorithms from higher resolution DEMs. On a reach-by-reach basis, stream reach characteristics essential to the modeling were transferred to the newly generated pathways or reaches from the enhanced River Reach File used to support the 1987 models. To complete the new network, watersheds for each reach were generated using the direction of surface-water flow derived from the DEMs. This network improves upon existing digital stream data by increasing the level of spatial detail and providing consistency between the reach locations and topography. The hydrologic network also aids in illustrating the spatial patterns of predicted nutrient loads and sources contributed locally to each stream, and the percentages of nutrient load that reach Chesapeake Bay.     

The effects of land use changes on some soil properties in İndağı Mountain Pass – Çankırı, Turkey

Understanding spatial variability of dynamic soil attributes provides information for suitably using land and avoiding environmental degradation. In this paper, we examined five neighboring land use types in Indagi Mountain Pass - Cankiri, Turkey to spatially predict variability of the soil organic carbon (SOC), bulk density (BD), textural composition, and soil reaction (pH) as affected by land use changes. Plantation, recreational land, and cropland were the lands converted from the woodland and grassland which were original lands in the study area. Total of 578 disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were taken with irregular intervals from five sites and represented the depths of 0-10 and 10-20 cm. Soil pH and BD had the lower coefficient of variations (CV) while SOC had the highest value for topsoil. Clay content showed greater CV than silt and sand contents. The geostatistics indicated that the soil properties examined were spatially dependent to the different degrees and interpolations using kriging showed the dynamic relationships between soil properties and land use types. The topsoil spatial distribution of SOC highly reflected the changes in the land use types, and kriging anticipated significant decreases of SOC in the recreational land and cropland. Accordingly, BD varied depending on the land use types, and also, the topsoil spatial distribution of BD differed significantly from that of the subsoil. Generally, BD greatly decreased in places where the SOC was relatively higher except in the grassland where overgrazing was the more important factor than SOC to determine BD. The topsoil spatial distributions of clay, silt, and sand contents were rather similar to those of the subsoil. The cropland and grassland were located on the very fine textured soils whereas the woodland and plantation were on the coarse textured soils. Although it was observed a clear pattern for the spatial distributions of the clay and sand changing with land uses, this was not the case for the silt content, which was attributed to the differences of dynamic erosional processes in the area. The spatial distribution of the soil pH agreed with that of the clay content. Soils of the cropland and grassland with higher amounts of clay characteristically binding more cations and having higher buffering capacities had the greater pH values when compared to the soils of other land uses with higher amounts of sand naturally inclined to be washed from the base cations by the rainwater.     

Emission database for global atmospheric research (Edgar)

Atmospheric chemistry and climate modellers require gridded global emissions data as input into their models. To meet this urgent need a global emissions source database called EDGAR is being developed by TNO and RIVM to estimate for 1990, on a regional and on a grid basis, annual emissions of greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CO, NO_x, non-methane VOC, SO_x), of NH₃, and of ozone depleting compounds (halocarbons) from all known sources. The aim is to establish at due levels of spatial, temporal and source aggregation the emissions from both anthropogenic and biogenic sources: a complete set of data required to estimate the total source strength of the various gases with a 1×1 ° resolution (altitude resolution of 1 km) and a temporal resolution of a month, supplemented by diurnal variation, as agreed upon in the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) of the International Atmospheric Chemistry Programme (IGAC). In this way EDGAR will meet the requirements of present and future developments in the field of atmospheric modelling. The data comprise demographic data, social and economic factors, land use distributions and emission factors (with due emphasis on the uncertainty). As understanding in this field is still changing, due attention is paid to flexibility regarding the disaggregation of sources, spatial and temporal resolution and species. The objective and methodology chosen for the construction of the database and the structural design of the database system are presented, as well as the type and sources of data and the approach used for data collection. As an example, the construction of the N₂O inventory is discussed.     

Modelling Interactions Between Economic Activity, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Biodiversity and Agricultural Production

In this article, we develop a modelling approach which examines selected drivers of ecosystem functioning and agricultural productivity. In particular, we develop linkages between land use and biodiversity and between biodiversity and agricultural productivity. We review the literature for quantitative estimates of key relationships and their parameters for modelling human consumption, land use, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions on biodiversity and agricultural productivity. We assemble these specifications into an iterative causal model and carry out a number of scenario projections of country-level consumption, production, land use, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, species diversity, and agricultural production up to 2050. Finally, we dissect the projections into key drivers using structural decomposition and sensitivity analyses.     

Vegetation coverage change and associated driving forces in mountain areas of Northwestern Yunnan, China using RS and GIS

The dynamics of vegetation coverage and associated driving forces are one of the key issues in global environmental change. In the study, taking Lijiang County as a case, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was used to quantify vegetation coverage change in mountain areas of Northwestern Yunnan, China, with the application of remote sensing data and GIS technologies. And associated driving forces of vegetation coverage change were also analyzed, with a focus on land use change and elevation. The results showed that there was high vegetation coverage with a significant increase in the whole county during 1986-2002. However, due to economic development and the implementation of environmental protection polices, vegetation coverage change in the county showed distinct spatial diversity, which mainly behaved as the increasing in the northwest of the county with low human activities, and the decreasing in the south with high economic development. The results also showed that as a restrictive factor, elevation was of great signification on the spatial distribution of vegetation coverage in a broad scale; while in the county level, it was land use that determined the vegetation coverage, since the change of vegetation coverage grades in the study area was mainly associated with the change of land use types.     

An Integrated Framework for Regional Studies: Emergy Based Spatial Analysis of the Province of Cagliari

This research proposes an integrated framework to investigate human-dominated systems and provide a basic approach to urban and regional studies in which the multiple interactions between economic and ecological processes are considered as a whole. Humans generate patterns of land use, infrastructures and other settings and redistribute ecosystem functions as flows of energy and matter for self-maintenance. To understand these emerging interactions between humans and ecological processes, human activities (e.g. transformation processes, land conversions, use of resources) and biophysical agents such as geomorphology, climate and natural cycles need to be considered. Emergy Analysis (spelled with an “m”) is then used as an environmental accounting method to evaluate different categories of resource use with reference to their environmental cost. A case study of the Province of Cagliari (in the island of Sardinia, Italy) is reported and the procedure for allocating emergy flows, assigning them to districts and managing point data is discussed. Outcomes plotted on a map showed non-homogeneous spatial distribution of emergy flows throughout the region, suggesting the way ecosystem functions are affected and restructured by the human economy.