Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Natural Resources

/ Much information is available on changes that occur in natural resources from both spatially-explicit data on environmental conditions and models of the interactions of these conditions and resources with human activities. The strategy for assessing land-use impacts on natural resources developed in this paper provides a framework for using relevant data and models to address questions of how management practices can promote both use and protection of resources. This assessment strategy integrates spatially explicit environmental data using geographic information systems (GIS) with computer models that simulate changes in land cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models also simulate susceptibility of species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The approach is applied to management of limestone barrens on the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee. Potential limestone barrens habitats are identified by overlaying appropriate soils, geology, slope, and land-use/land-cover conditions. Their validity is tested against known sites containing rare species that occur in these habitats. The location of habitats at risk in the aftermath of human activities is determined by using an available area model that identifies the size and proximity of sites that particular types of species can no longer use as habitat. The resulting risk map can be used in land management planning. The approach uses readily available in situ and remotely sensed data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and land-use scenarios. This approach can be refined based on needs identified by land managers and on the sensitivity of the results to the resolution of available resource information.KEY WORDS: Land management; Assessment; Habitat characterization; Limestone barrens; Ecological modeling; Geographic information systems     

Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Combining the Drastic and Dyna-Clue Model in the Argentine Pampas

Vulnerability assessment is considered an effective tool in establishing monitoring networks required for controlling potential pollution. The aim of this work is to propose a new integrated methodology to assess actual and forecasted groundwater vulnerability by including land-use change impact on groundwater quality. Land-use changes were simulated by applying a spatial dynamics model in a scenario of agricultural expansion. Groundwater vulnerability methodology DRASTIC-P, was modifyed by adding a land-use parameter in order to assess groundwater vulnerability within a future scenario. This new groundwater vulnerability methodology shows the areas where agricultural activities increase the potential level of groundwater vulnerability to pollution. The Dulce Creek Basin was the study case proposed for the application of this methodology. The study revealed that the area with Very High vulnerability would increase 20% by the year 2020 in the Dulce Creek Basin. This result can be explained by analyzing the land-use map simulated by the Dyna-CLUE model for the year 2020, which shows that the areas with increments in crop and pasture coincide with the area defined by the Very High aquifer vulnerability category in the year 2020. Through scenario analysis, land-use change models can help to identify medium or long term critical locations in the face of environmental change.     

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy)

Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.     

Towards Participatory Geographic Information Systems for community-based environmental decision making

This article discusses the potential of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to become an information technology enabling groups of people to participate in decisions shaping their communities and promoting sustainable use of natural resources. It explains the concept of participation in the context of planning and decision making. In this context Participatory GIS (PGIS) offers tools that can be used to help the public become meaningfully involved in decision making processes affecting their communities. Following an overview of research on PGIS and its current status the article presents two recent studies of PGIS in water resource planning; one involving the use of computer generated maps representing simple information structures and the other involving the use of more sophisticated information tools. The synthesis of both studies provides the bases for discussing the prospects of PGIS to empower citizens in making decisions about their communities and resources.     

Tradable planning permits versus auctioned tradable development rights: different trading agents,different policy outcomes

The tradable planning permit (TPP) policy seeks to limit the land take by development. It can be used in countries where development rights are vested by land-use planning to certain landowners only. TPPs are traded among public authorities. We introduce here a new policy, called the auctioned tradable development rights (ATDR) policy, which takes advantage of unvested rights of development and of trading among private actors. We compare the TPP, the ATDR policy and our baseline land-use planning model using a set of criteria. There are trade-offs within compared models. Both trading policies extend opportunities for land protection from development in exchange for higher transaction costs (highest in the ATDR policy). Trading policies seek also to recapture a part of development rent, decrease rent-seeking, and locate new development more effectively from the investors' perspective. However, trading among public authorities in the TPP model may hinder attaining these effects.     

Multiple-resource modeling as a tool for conservation: Its applicability in Mexico

The current Mexican environmental law provides the legal basis for comprehensive land-use planning. Under the law, development of natural ecosystems must combine goals, policies, and practices towards the sustainable use of natural resources and the protection of biological diversity. Thus, ecosystem manipulation must be able to counter fragmentation of natural ecosystems and isolation of natural reserves, while providing for human needs. Assessment of the potential of natural ecosystems and management impacts are required. Multiple-resource simulation is an assessment and land-use planning tool that permits managers and decision makers to comply with the law, providing a flexible, user-oriented system that can meet the needs of managers, conservationists, and researchers. A multiple-resource model and an example of how it can be applied to meet planning needs is presented for discussion.     

Roles of environmental movement organisations in land-use planning: case studies of the Niagara Escarpment and Oak Ridges Moraine,Ontario, Canada

The paper explores the roles of environmental movement organisations (EMOs) in land-use planning, including domain creation (establishment of new or modified landscape planning boundaries) and regime change (adoption of new or modified legal and planning rules). The research involved two case studies of land-use planning processes: the Niagara Escarpment and Oak Ridges Moraine, Ontario, Canada. The two cases together reveal an evolution of land-use planning towards collaborative processes on mainly private lands in Southern Ontario during the period from 1960 to 2002. The results suggest that EMOs can create new planning domains through agenda setting activities, build landscape value and vision, educate governments and the public, and work to maintain and alter regimes. Collaborative planning has emerged as an important process in which some EMOs are now participating.     

Sustainability of ground water quality considering land use changes and public health risks

One of the major environmental issues of concern to policy-makers is the increased vulnerability of ground water quality (GWQ). Another issue of equal interest is the sustainability of natural resources for future generations. To understand the sustainability of the natural resources such as water in general, one needs to understand the impact of future land use changes on the natural resources. This work proposes a methodology to address sustainability of GWQ considering land use changes, aquifer vulnerability to multiple contaminants, and public health risks. The methodology was demonstrated for the Sumas-Blaine aquifer in Washington State. The land transformation model predicted that nearly 60 percent of the land use practices would change in the Sumas-Blaine Aquifer by the year 2015. The accuracy of the LTM model predictions increased to greater levels as the spatial resolution was decreased. Aquifer vulnerability analysis was performed for major contaminants using the binary logistic regression (LR) method. The LR model, along with the predicted future land use, was used to estimate the future GWQ using two indices-carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic ground water qualities. Sustainability of GWQ was then analyzed using the concept of 'strong' sustainability. The sustainability map of GWQ showed improvements in many areas where urbanization is expected to occur. The positive impact of urbanization on GWQ is an indication of the extensive damage caused by existing agricultural activities in the study area.     

Using Risk-Based Analysis and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Flooding Problems in an Urban Watershed in Rhode Island

This article provides an overview of the use of risk-based analysis (RBA) in flood damage assessment, and it illustrates the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in identifying flood-prone areas, which can aid in flood-mitigation planning assistance. We use RBA to calculate expected annual flood damages in an urban watershed in the state of Rhode Island, USA. The method accounts for the uncertainty in the three primary relationships used in computing flood damage: (1) the probability that a given flood will produce a given amount of floodwater, (2) the probability that a given amount of floodwater will reach a certain stage or height, and (3) the probability that a certain stage of floodwater will produce a given amount of damage. A greater than 50% increase in expected annual flood damage is estimated for the future if previous development patterns continue and flood-mitigation measures are not taken. GIS is then used to create a map that shows where and how often floods might occur in the future, which can help (1) identify priority areas for flood-mitigation planning assistance and (2) disseminate information to public officials and other decision-makers.     

Geodiversity Assessment of Paraná State (Brazil): An Innovative Approach

Geodiversity is considered as the natural range of geological, geomorphological, and soil features, including their assemblages, relationships, properties, interpretations, and systems. A method developed for the quantitative assessment of geodiversity was applied to Paraná, a Brazilian state with an area of about 200,000 km². The method is based on the overlay of a grid over different maps at scales ranging from 1/500,000 to 1/650,000, with the final Geodiversity Index the sum of five partial indexes calculated on a 25 × 25 km grid. The partial indexes represent the main components of geodiversity, including geology (stratigraphy and lithology), geomorphology, paleontology, and soils. The fifth partial index covers mineral occurrences of geodiversity, such precious stones and metals, energy and industrial minerals, mineral waters, and springs. The Geodiversity Index takes the form of an isoline map that can be used as a tool in land-use planning, particularly in identifying priority areas for conservation, management, and use of natural resources at the state level.     

Heat wave vulnerability and exposure mapping for Osaka City,Japan

Heat waves and heat-related stresses are increasing environmental concerns in urban areas. The impact of heat waves is dependent on the intensity and duration of each event and on underlying environmental and socio-demographic factors which influence population vulnerability. In order to develop effective adaptation strategies, it is important to develop a method to clearly identify the most vulnerable areas based on these factors. The purpose of this study is to develop and map a heat wave vulnerability index combined with heat exposure analysis to identify areas where interventions can be targeted. The vulnerability index was derived from a principle component analysis of eight key variables that influence heat wave vulnerability. Eight proxy measures of vulnerability were obtained from 2010 census and land-use data for the 1904 census districts of Osaka City. Three principle components explained >77 % of the variance (age, employment and education; social isolation; density and lack of green space). The components were combined and weighted to produce a vulnerability score for each census district. The vulnerability scores ranged from 0 to 106, were categorised into eight vulnerability levels and were overlaid with fine-scale air temperature observations. The resulting output identified the distribution of population vulnerability and exposure. This assessment of vulnerability, combining exposure and sensitivity components, can provide precedent for efficient, targeted action to be taken to reduce the impact of heat waves at present and under climate change.     

An Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment of the Paluxy Aquifer, Central Texas, USA, Using GIS and a Modified DRASTIC Approach

D epth to water, net Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of the vadose zone, and Conductivity of the aquifer). Using such an approach allows one to investigate the potential for groundwater contamination on a regional, rather than site-specific, scale. Based upon data from variables such as soil permeability, depth to water, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and topography, subjective numerical weightings have been assigned according to the variable's relative importance in regional groundwater quality. The weights for each variable comprise a GIS map layer. These map layers are combined to formulate the final groundwater pollution potential map. Using this method of investigation, the pollution potential map for the study area classifies 47% of the area as having low pollution potential, 26% as having moderate pollution potential, 22% as having high pollution potential, and 5% as having very high pollution potential.     

Modeling the Potential Impact of Seasonal and Inactive Multi‐Aquifer Wells on Contaminant Movement to Public Water‐Supply Wells1

Johnson, R.L., B.R. Clark, M.K. Landon, L.J. Kauffman, and S.M. Eberts, 2011. Modeling the Potential Impact of Seasonal and Inactive Multi‐Aquifer Wells on Contaminant Movement to Public Water‐Supply Wells. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):588‐596. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00526.x Abstract: Wells screened across multiple aquifers can provide pathways for the movement of surprisingly large volumes of groundwater to confined aquifers used for public water supply (PWS). Using a simple numerical model, we examine the impact of several pumping scenarios on leakage from an unconfined aquifer to a confined aquifer and conclude that a single inactive multi‐aquifer well can contribute nearly 10% of total PWS well flow over a wide range of pumping rates. This leakage can occur even when the multi‐aquifer well is more than a kilometer from the PWS well. The contribution from multi‐aquifer wells may be greater under conditions where seasonal pumping (e.g., irrigation) creates large, widespread downward hydraulic gradients between aquifers. Under those conditions, water can continue to leak down a multi‐aquifer well from an unconfined aquifer to a confined aquifer even when those multi‐aquifer wells are actively pumped. An important implication is that, if an unconfined aquifer is contaminated, multi‐aquifer wells can increase the vulnerability of a confined‐aquifer PWS well.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A WATER SUPPLY PROTECTION MODEL IN A GIS1

ABSTRACT: As part of a larger model to identify lands suitable for acquisition, a water supply protection model was developed using the Southwest Florida Water Management District's GIS. Several hydrologic and hydrogeologic data layers were overlaid to develop maps showing ground-water supply suitability, protection areas for surface-water supply, protection areas for major public supply wells, susceptibility to ground-water contamination, and recharge to the Floridan aquifer. These intermediate layers were combined into a final map to prioritize protection areas for water supply.     

Reliability of groundwater vulnerability maps obtained through statistical methods

Statistical methods are widely used in environmental studies to evaluate natural hazards. Within groundwater vulnerability in particular, statistical methods are used to support decisions about environmental planning and management. The production of vulnerability maps obtained by statistical methods can greatly help decision making. One of the key points in all of these studies is the validation of the model outputs, which is performed through the application of various techniques to analyze the quality and reliability of the final results and to evaluate the model having the best performance. In this study, a groundwater vulnerability assessment to nitrate contamination was performed for the shallow aquifer located in the Province of Milan (Italy). The Weights of Evidence modeling technique was used to generate six model outputs, each one with a different number of input predictive factors. Considering that a vulnerability map is meaningful and useful only if it represents the study area through a limited number of classes with different degrees of vulnerability, the spatial agreement of different reclassified maps has been evaluated through the kappa statistics and a series of validation procedures has been proposed and applied to evaluate the reliability of the reclassified maps. Results show that performance is not directly related to the number of input predictor factors and that is possible to identify, among apparently similar maps, those best representing groundwater vulnerability in the study area. Thus, vulnerability maps generated using statistical modeling techniques have to be carefully handled before they are disseminated. Indeed, the results may appear to be excellent and final maps may perform quite well when, in fact, the depicted spatial distribution of vulnerability is greatly different from the actual one. For this reason, it is necessary to carefully evaluate the obtained results using multiple statistical techniques that are capable of providing quantitative insight into the analysis of the results. This evaluation should be done at least to reduce the questionability of the results and so to limit the number of potential choices.     

Wind energy potential analysis for Thailand: Uncertainty from wind maps and sensitivity to turbine technology

Rapid development of wind energy has been witnessed in Thailand. However, different wind resource maps (over land) have brought great uncertainty to wind energy planning. Here, four important mesoscale wind maps were considered: DEDP (2001), World Bank (2001), Manomaiphiboon et al. (2010) of JGSEE, and DEDE (2010). The wind maps were first harmonized to a common grid at 100 m and then compared. The earlier wind maps (DEDP and World Bank) are shown to represent the lower and upper limits of predicted speed, respectively, while JGSEE and DEDE tend to be more moderate with predictions statistically closer to observations. A consolidated wind map was constructed based on their median and shown to have the best prediction performance. It was then used for the technical potential analysis, in which three large (2-MW) turbine models (two conventional and one designed for low wind speed) were considered. By GIS techniques, any land areas not feasible for large wind turbines were excluded, and the corresponding overall onshore technical potential ranges between 50 and 250 GW, depending on map and turbine model. Considering only economically feasible turbines (with capacity factors of 20%) and the median-based map, the final technical potential equals 17 GW when using the low-wind-speed model but is reduced to 5 GW with the conventional models, adequately meeting the national wind energy target of 3 GW by the year 2036. The results suggest a strong sensitivity of estimated technical potential to turbine technology and a suitability of low-wind-speed turbines for wind conditions in Thailand.     

GEOSTATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF HORIZONTAL HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY FOR THE KIRKWOOD‐COHANSEY AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: The Kirkwood‐Cohansey aquifer has been identified as a critical source for meeting existing and expected water supply needs for southern New Jersey. Several contaminated sites exist in the region; their impact on the aquifer has to be evaluated using ground water flow and transport models. Ground water modeling depends on availability of measured hydrogeologic data (e.g., hydraulic conductivity, for parameterization of the modeling runs). However, field measurements of such critical data have inadequate spatial density, and their locations are often clustered. The goal of this study was to research, compile, and geocode existing data, then use geostatistics and advanced mapping methods to develop a map of horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Kirkwood‐Cohansey aquifer. Spatial interpolation of horizontal hydraulic conductivity measurements was performed using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) Method implemented in the BMELib code library. This involved the integration of actual measurements with soft information on likely ranges of hydraulic conductivity at a given location to obtain estimate maps. The estimation error variance maps provide an insight into the uncertainty associated with the estimates, and indicate areas where more information on hydraulic conductivity is required.     

Land-Cover Change Trajectories in Northern Ghana

Land-cover change trajectories are an emergent property of complex human–environment systems such as the land-use system. An understanding of the factors responsible for land change trajectories is fundamental for land-use planning and the development of land-related policies. The aims of this study were to characterize and identify the spatial determinants of agricultural land-cover change trajectories in northern Ghana. Land-cover change trajectories were defined using land-cover maps prepared from Landsat Thematic Mapper dataset acquired in 1984, 1992, and 1999. Binary logistic regression was used to model the probability of observing the trajectories as a function of spatially explicit biophysical and socioeconomic independent variables. Population densities generally increased along the continuum of land-use intensity, whereas distance from market and roads generally decreased along this continuum. Apparently, roads and market serve as incentives for settlement and agricultural land use. An increase in population density is an important spatial determinant only for trajectories where the dominant change process is agricultural extensification. A major response to population growth is an increase in cultivation frequency around the main market. Agricultural intensification is highly sensitive to accessibility by roads. The increase in land-use intensity is also associated with low soil quality. These results suggest the need for policies to restore soil fertility for agricultural sustainability. The models also provide a means for identifying functional relationships for in-depth analyses of land-use change in Ghana.     

Towards Unpacking the Theory Behind,and a Pragmatic Approach to Biodiversity Offsets

The use of biodiversity offsets to compensate for residual impacts on biodiversity resulting from a development or land-use change, is becoming more prevalent. While much has been published on this topic, there has been little published on the theoretical foundation on which biodiversity offsets are based. This paper seeks to unpack the theoretical and practical tenets of biodiversity offsets in relation to the public trust doctrine, responsibilities of the developer and the State, and significant unmitigable impacts on biodiversity. It was reasoned that the responsibility of the developer and the life of a biodiversity offset are finite, and that the concept of ‘in perpetuity’ may not exist practically and in law. It was further discovered that a sound understanding of the public trust doctrine is critical for consistent offset-based decision-making, particularly in those circumstances where an impasse between the potential significant loss to biodiversity and an indispensable need for a development or land-use change arises.     

Constructing land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030

The National Environmental Assessment Agency of the RIVM in the Netherlands is obliged to report on future trends in the environment and nature every 4 years. The last report, Nature Outlook 2, evaluated the effects of four alternative socio-economic and demographic scenarios on nature and the landscape. Spatially detailed land-use maps are needed to assess effects on nature and landscape. The objective of the study presented here was how to create spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030 using the Environment Explorer, a Cellular Automata-based land-use model to construct land-use maps from four scenarios. One of these is discussed in great detail to show how the maps were constructed from the various scenario elements, story lines and additional data and assumptions on national, regional and local land-use developments. It was the first time in the history of our outlooks that consistent, spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands for 2030 were constructed from national economic and demographic scenarios. Each map represents a direct reflection of model input and assumptions. The maps do not show the most probable developments in the Netherlands but describe the possible change in land use if Dutch society were to develop according to one of the four scenarios. The large (societal) uncertainties are reflected in the total set of future land-use maps. The application of a land-use model such as the Environment Explorer ensures that all relevant aspects of a scenario, i.e. economic and demographic developments, zoning policies and urban growth, are integrated systematically into one consistent framework.