VMT reduction and potential environmental effects with a tradable credits scheme: a simulation case study of Great Britain

We investigate the influence of a tradable credits scheme (TCS) on travel demand and vehicle emissions, based on the vehicle miles travelled (VMT). With a microeconomic quantitative analysis scheme, a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) function is used as an approach to model the annual mileage for different travel purposes. An illustration is given for the effects of a TCS on emission mitigation based on historical data for Great Britain. A scenario analysis demonstrates that a TCS can achieve a target for reducing the number of private trips. Besides a movement of trips from the private car mode to public modes, there is also some trip restraint, with individuals choosing not to take some trips. Compared with Fowkes et al.’s research on road pricing in London, the research illustrates that a TCS can be designed to have similar effects to a road pricing scheme. We also demonstrate that a TCS could bring emission changes arising from changes in VMT.     

Consumer resource matching in urbanizing landscapes: are synanthropic species over-matching?

Population responses of synanthropic species to urbanization may be explained by the resource-matching rule, which postulates that individuals should distribute themselves according to resource availability. According to the resource-matching rule, urban habitats will contain greater densities if they provide better resources than rural habitats. However, because resource availability is density dependent, individuals in urban areas would ultimately achieve fitness levels comparable to, but no better than, individuals in less urban areas. Some ecologists suggest that synanthropic birds may not conform to the resource-matching rule and may instead overmatch (i.e., overexploit) in urban habitats, ultimately leading to lower fitness despite greater resource levels. Using the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) as a focal species, we evaluated if Cardinal populations in urban and rural habitats were consistent with predictions of consumer resource matching. During 2003-2006 we documented population density, adult body condition, apparent survival, and annual reproductive productivity of Cardinals in riparian forest stands within urban (n = 8 stands) and rural (n = 6 stands) landscapes in Ohio, USA. Density of Cardinals in urban forests was four times that found in more rural forests. Mark-resight data from 147 males and 125 females over four years indicated that apparent survival rates were similar between urban and rural landscapes (phi = 0.64, SE = 0.039 for males and phi = 0.57, SE = 0.04 for females). Similarly, body condition indices of 168 males, 142 females, and 118 nestlings did not differ significantly between landscapes. Annual reproductive productivity (mean number of fledglings per pair over breeding season) of 294 pairs was comparable for urban (2.4 +/- 0.18 [mean +/- SE] and rural (2.1 +/- 0.18) young birds. Thus, contrary to recent suggestions, we find that high densities of certain synanthropic species in urban landscapes are consistent with expectations of consumer resource matching.     

Larval mortality during export to the sea in the fiddler crab Uca minax

Dense populations of the fiddler crab Uca minax (Le Conte 1855) are common along tidally influenced freshwater rivers and streams >50 km from the sea. Adults do not migrate from inland sites to release larvae, but instead release them directly into an environment where the zoeae cannot survive. Laboratory salinity tolerance experiments were used to determine how long larvae from the inland-most population of U. minax along the Pee Dee River, South Carolina, USA can survive zero salinity compared to larvae from a brackish water population (salinity 5) near the mouth of Winyah Bay in the same estuary. Larvae from the brackish water population were also exposed to a salinity of 5 and their survival tracked. These experiments were conducted from May to August 2004 and 2005. To determine if inland larvae suffered significant mortality in transit due to salinity stress, current profiles were measured in the field and used to model the time taken by a larva using ebb-tide transport to travel to permissive salinities. The laboratory tolerance experiments showed that larvae from the inland freshwater population had LT50’s of 4–5 days at 0 salinity, which were significantly longer than those of the brackish water zoeae (2–3 days). Zoeae from the brackish water population survived for at least one larval molt at a salinity of 5 with LT 50’s of ∼12 days. Estimated travel times to reach permissive salinities from the inland-most population based on current profiles were 3–5 days for larvae using night-time only ebb-tide transport and 1.5–2.5 days for those using ebb-tide transport both day and night. Previously published field data indicate that U. minax larvae do use both day- and night-time ebb-tide transport, and are found in high densities in the water column during the day. These results lead to the conclusion that U. minax stage I zoeae do not undergo significant salinity-induced mortality during their 50+ km trip to the sea.     

Rural and Suburban Sprawl in the U.S. Midwest from 1940 to 2000 and Its Relation to Forest Fragmentation

Abstract:  Housing growth and its environmental effects pose major conservation challenges. We sought to (1) quantify spatial and temporal patterns of housing growth across the U.S. Midwest from 1940–2000, (2) identify ecoregions strongly affected by housing growth, (3) assess the extent to which forests occur near housing, and (4) relate housing to forest fragmentation. We used data from the 2000 U.S. Census to derive fine-scale backcasts of decadal housing density. Housing data were integrated with a 30-m resolution U.S. Geological Survey land cover classification. The number of housing units in the Midwest grew by 146% between 1940 and 2000. Spatially, housing growth was particularly strong at the fringe of metropolitan areas (suburban sprawl) and in nonmetropolitan areas (rural sprawl) that are rich in natural amenities such as lakes and forests. The medium-density housing (4–32 housing units/km²) category increased most in area. Temporally, suburban housing growth was especially high in the post-World War II decades. Rural sprawl was highest in the 1970s and 1990s. The majority of midwestern forests either contained or were near housing. Only 14.8% of the region's forests were in partial block groups with no housing. Housing density was negatively correlated with the amount of interior forest. The widespread and pervasive nature of sprawl shown by our data is cause for conservation concern. Suburban sprawl has major environmental impacts on comparatively small areas because of the high number of housing units involved. In contrast, rural sprawl affects larger areas but with less intensity because associated housing densities are lower. The environmental effects per house, however, are likely higher in the case of rural sprawl because it occurs in less-altered areas. Conservation efforts will need to address both types of sprawl to be successful.     

The nature and frequency of social interactions among free-living prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster)

Hypotheses relating the behavior of voles to their population cycles often assume that the rate of social interaction increases with population density. To test this assumption, we examined the frequency of social interactions in a population of prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) over a 7-year period. In addition, we characterized space use by resident animals, patterns of visitation by nonresidents to nests, and participants in social interactions. Social groups within the population typically displayed little overlap in their use of space, even at high population densities. Nevertheless, nonresidents, particularly wandering males, were captured as visitors at nests. The number of visits per social group did not increase in a simple linear manner with population density and was particularly variable when there were fewer than 100 animals/ha. At such times, more single females and fewer pairs received visits from males than expected based on the frequency of occurrence of these groups in the population; a similar pattern was noted during periods of high population density (≥100 animals/ha) but the comparisons failed to reach statistical significance. Furthermore, at high population density, more communal groups received visits from females than expected. Patterns of visitation to communal groups were influenced by the number of adult male residents (winter only), but not by the number of adult female residents or presence of philopatric female offspring. These data indicate that the frequency of social contact in prairie voles does not increase linearly with population density and is influenced by the spacing and possible mate-guarding behavior of resident animals. Received: 7 January 1998 / Accepted after revision: 16 May 1998     

Effects of Landscape Features on the Distribution and Sustainability of Ungulate Hunting in Northern Congo

Abstract: Understanding the spatial dimensions of hunting and prey population dynamics is important in order to estimate the sustainability of hunting in tropical forests. We investigated how hunting offtake of vertebrates differed in mixed forest and monodominant forest (composed of Gilbertiodendron dewevrei) and over different spatial extents within the hunting catchment around the logging town of Kabo, Congo. In 9 months of recall surveys with hunters, we gathered information on over 1500 hunting trips in which ungulates were 65% of the species killed and 82% of harvested biomass. Hunters supplied information on animals killed and the hunting trip, including the area visited (i.e., hunting zone; 11 separate zones within a 506 km² catchment or commonly hunted area). Over 65% of all animals were killed in monodominant forest, which made up 28% of the hunting catchment, and zones with small amounts of monodominant forest were used most frequently by hunters. Given the large offtakes from monodominant forests, we suggest that animal dispersal may be maintaining high, localized harvests in these areas. We believe hunters preferred to hunt in monodominant forest because the understory was accessible and that areas with small amounts of monodominant forest and large amounts of mixed forest were more productive. The variation in hunting pressure we found between and within hunting zones differs from past examinations of spatial variation in hunting offtake, where entire hunting catchments were considered population sinks and areas with low to no hunting (no‐take zones) were outside hunting catchments. Future use of no‐take zones to manage hunting should incorporate variability in offtake within hunting catchments.     

In situ measures of foraging success and prey encounter reveal marine habitat-dependent search strategies

Predators are thought to reduce travel speed and increase turning rate in areas where resources are relatively more abundant, a behavior termed "area-restricted search." However, evidence for this is rare, and few empirical data exist for large predators. Animals exhibiting foraging site fidelity could also be spatially aware of suitable feeding areas based on prior experience; changes in movement patterns might therefore arise from the anticipation of higher prey density. We tested the hypothesis that regions of area-restricted search were associated with a higher number of daily speed spikes (a proxy for potential prey encounter rate) and foraging success in southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), a species exhibiting both area-restricted searches and high interannual foraging site fidelity. We used onshore morphological measurements and diving data from archival tags deployed during winter foraging trips. Foraging success was inferred from in situ changes in relative lipid content derived from measured changes in buoyancy, and first-passage time analysis was used to identify area-restricted search behavior. Seals exhibited relatively direct southerly movement on average, with intensive search behavior predominantly located at the distal end of tracks. The probability of being in search mode was positively related to changes in relative lipid content; thus, intensively searched areas were associated with the highest foraging success. However, there was high foraging success during the outward transit even though seals moved through quickly without slowing down and increasing turning rate to exploit these areas. In addition, the probability of being in search mode was negatively related to the number of daily speed spikes. These results suggest that movement patterns represent a response to prior expectation of the location of predictable and profitable resources. Shelf habitat was 4-9 times more profitable than the other habitats, emphasizing the importance of the East Antarctic shelf for this and other predators in the region. We have provided rare empirical data with which to investigate the relationship between predator foraging strategy and prey encounter/ foraging success, underlining the importance of inferring the timing and spatial arrangement of successful food acquisition for interpreting foraging strategies correctly.     

天津市“城-郊-乡”样带土壤种子库特征分析

为了解天津市不同地理位置土壤种子库物种组成和群落结构的变化,沿天津市设置＂城区—城郊—远郊＂的生态样带,在6个典型样地选取20个样方进行土壤种子库的采样工作并进行萌发试验。结果表明：土壤种子库的密度、物种组成及群落结构差异性明显,除趋势对应分析后分异出典型的城市土壤种子库、城郊土壤种子库、远郊土壤种子库3种类型。从远郊到城区,土壤种子库的密度递增,相似性指数也递增,而物种丰富度却递减。相比远郊地区,城区、城郊区土壤种子库物种丰富度损失率分别为66.67%、45.23%。城区因城市化水平较高及频繁的人为干扰致使土壤种子库物种呈现匀质化特点,物种多为一年生的耐踩踏草本。城郊区的多样性指数、生态优势度指数、均匀度指数最低,但是种子库密度较大,物种丰富,萌发种子中木本植物可观,适合用于进行植被恢复的试验研究。     

松嫩草地羊草克隆构型特征在不同种群密度下的可塑性

对不同密度羊草(Leymuschinensis)种群的克隆构型特征进行了调查,比较在资源水平相对一致时,羊草克隆构型特征,如根茎节间长度、间隔子长度、分枝距离和分枝角度,对种群密度变化的可塑性.结果表明:随着种群密度增加,羊草根茎节间长度和间隔子长度逐渐减小,分枝角度增大,且分枝角度在不同密度间差异显著.分枝角度的频率分布格局在不同密度间也存在显著差异,种群密度高时,羊草根茎具有更多的大分枝角.此外,羊草根茎节间长度、间隔子长度和分枝角度与其种群密度具有较强的冥函数关系.羊草根茎克隆特征在不同密度间具有较强的可塑性,当种群密度低时,羊草克隆特征更趋于“游击型”;随着种群密度的增加,其“游击型”特征减弱. 图2表2参19     

谷子根系对群体压力胁迫的生物学响应

采用根管土柱栽培的方法,比较了在相同根管土柱体积上种植不同株数谷子时谷子根系的主要特征,如根系数量,根系入土最大深度,根系SOD、POD活性,总根长,根系MDA含量及根系总吸收面积与活性吸收面积等对群体密度变化的可塑性.结果表明,不同群体下,谷子单株根数前期差异小,中后期差异大;而单位土体中的根量前期差异大,后期差异小.群体大(密度高),谷子根量、总根长及根系总吸收面积与活性吸收面积达到高峰的时间早,但衰亡时期也早,且入土深度较浅.群体小根量高峰出现得迟但维持的时间较长,根系在土体中的延伸深度也较大,有利于后期营养的获取和产量的提高.群体在作物生长中起着量的决定作用,而个体生长发育由于群体不同而引起质的差异.在生产上要想获得理想的产量,既要有足够量的保证,又要求达到一定质的标准,以使群体与个体协调发展.表4图2参18     

辽西大凌河流域土地利用变化及驱动力分析

从政策、流域综合治理、经济发展和技术进步、农民认知态度等4方面对影响大凌河流域土地利用变化的驱动力进行了分析。同时运用农户问卷调查和驱动力分析结果,选取影响耕地变化的社会经济和人口因子,运用主成分分析和多元迭代回归分析确定影响耕地变化的主要因子,并拟合出耕地变化的最优度模型。研究结果表明:在1987—2002年期间,农田和未利用荒地面积在不断减小,而林地、果园、草地在不断增加,但1995年后变化边际度大大减小;主成分分析表明影响土地利用变化主要影响因子是农业人口(A-POP)、总人口(T-POP)、农村经济收入(TIRE)、农林牧渔收入(IAFAF)和第三产业总产值(GTI);多元迭代回归分析表明耕地面积变化的最优回归模型中主变量是农业人口(A-POP)、总人口(T-POP)、农村经济收入(TIRE),这些变量能够解释95.1%的耕地变化。     

Using enhanced dasymetric mapping techniques to improve the spatial accuracy of sea level rise vulnerability assessments

This article reports on the application of dasymetric mapping techniques to interpolate and disaggregate block group population counts to smaller areal units (i.e., tax parcels) and derive surface population models with more realistic representations of population distributions in our residential study area in Miami-Dade, Florida. Three methods of dasymetric interpolation were tested: (i) binary, (ii) three-class, and (iii) limiting variable. Our enhanced limiting variable approach introduced an adjustment factor for parcel vacancy rates in the dasymetric calculations, and applied dasymetric mapping techniques to disaggregate future population projections to the tax lot level of analysis. The limiting variable interpolation generated the lowest coefficient of variation (0.188), followed by the three-class interpolation (0.645). We also found that population densities vary substantially within land use classes of single family, medium density and high density classes, and these variations also highlighted the importance of incorporating vacancy rates when interpolating population counts to categorical land use data. Overall, the enhanced dasymetric mapping technique is particularly useful for examining the impact of sea-level rise as its derivatives are compatible with high resolution LiDAR and orthoimagery data. Coastal counties can also benefit from such high resolution surface population models to enhance the accuracy of hazard-related vulnerability assessments and to guide the development of relevant shore zone conservation and adaptation strategies.     

Conservation Threats Due to Human-Caused Increases in Fire Frequency in Mediterranean-Climate Ecosystems

Periodic wildfire is an important natural process in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, but increasing fire recurrence threatens the fragile ecology of these regions. Because most fires are human-caused, we investigated how human population patterns affect fire frequency. Prior research in California suggests the relationship between population density and fire frequency is not linear. There are few human ignitions in areas with low population density, so fire frequency is low. As population density increases, human ignitions and fire frequency also increase, but beyond a density threshold, the relationship becomes negative as fuels become sparser and fire suppression resources are concentrated. We tested whether this hypothesis also applies to the other Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of the world. We used global satellite databases of population, fire activity, and land cover to evaluate the spatial relationship between humans and fire in the world's five Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Both the mean and median population densities were consistently and substantially higher in areas with than without fire, but fire again peaked at intermediate population densities, which suggests that the spatial relationship is complex and nonlinear. Some land-cover types burned more frequently than expected, but no systematic differences were observed across the five regions. The consistent association between higher population densities and fire suggests that regardless of differences between land-cover types, natural fire regimes, or overall population, the presence of people in Mediterranean-climate regions strongly affects the frequency of fires; thus, population growth in areas now sparsely settled presents a conservation concern. Considering the sensitivity of plant species to repeated burning and the global conservation significance of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, conservation planning needs to consider the human influence on fire frequency. Fine-scale spatial analysis of relationships between people and fire may help identify areas where increases in fire frequency will threaten ecologically valuable areas.     

A linked model of animal ecology and human behavior for the management of wildlife tourism

Wildlife tourism attractions are characterized as having intricately coupled human-wildlife interactions. Accordingly, the ability to mitigate negative impacts of tourism on wildlife necessitates research into the ecology of the system and of the human dimensions, since plans aimed at optimizing wildlife fitness must also be acceptable to tourists. We developed an integrated systems dynamics model for the management of tourist-stingray interactions at ‘Stingray City Sandbar’ (SCS), Cayman Islands. The model predicts the state of the tourism attraction over time in relation to stingray population size, stingray life expectancy, and tourist visitation under various management scenarios. Stingray population data in the model comprised growth rates and survival estimates (from mark-and-recapture data) and mortality estimates. Inputted changes in their respective rates under different management scenarios were informed by previous research. Original research on the demand of heterogeneous tourist segments for management regulations via a stated choice model was used to calculate changes in the tourist population growth rate from data supplied by the Caymanian government. The management attributes to which tourists were responsive also have anticipated effects on stingray ecology (migration and mortality), and vice versa, thus linking the two components. We found that the model's predictions over a 25-year time span were sensitive to the stingray population growth rate and alternate management options. Under certain management scenarios, it was possible to maximize both the tourist segment in favor of no management and stingray numbers while reducing stingray health. However, the most effective relative strategy included a reduction in visitor density, restricted stingray interactions, and an imposition of a small fee. Over time, although fewer stingrays were predicted to remain at SCS, they would live longer and experience fewer stochastic disease events, and the desirable tourist segment was predicted to predominate. By understanding how management will affect tourist activities and their subsequent impacts on both wildlife health and visitor satisfaction, one can explore the management alternatives that would optimize both.     

New particle formation observed from a rain shadow region of the Western Ghats,India

Abstract

This study reports on new particle formation (NPF) and characteristic features observed from a rural site falling in the rainshadow of the Western Ghats in peninsular India. A total of 35 NPF events observed during August 2018 - January 2019 are classified and analyzed here. The apparent formation rates ranged from 0.2 to 10.0?cm^–3 s^–1, while the growth rates of nucleation mode particles ranged from 1.2 to 13.8?nm h^–1. The frequency of occurrence was least during August (core monsoon) and highest during post-monsoon. The local winds were calm and southeasterly to easterly (from the urban centre) supplying the essential precursor gases during October and November, leading to a frequent occurrence of nucleation events. Observations suggest that an increased condensation sink could limit the NPF while promoting Aitken mode growth. The newly formed particles accounted for about 10–80% of the total aerosol concentration. These newly formed particles were able to act as cloud condensation nuclei after growing to approximately 50?nm with an average activation fraction of 0.4.     

A novel living agricultural concept in urban communities: Family Business Garden

During the process of urbanization, people are subject to the indiscriminate use of resources due to competition. The present trend in global population growth predicts that the situation will be aggravated as many people prefer living in towns and cities to resource-poor rural areas. In consequence, limited space, high percentage of ageing population, urban poverty, environmental pollution, changes in urban lifestyles and varied consumption patterns have to be dealt with in sustainable development strategies. In this context, urban agriculture can play a vital role by visualizing the urban homestead as a potentially viable production unit of agriculture. In order to live with limited urban infrastructure facilities, environmental conditions and socio-economic situations, the concept of the Family Business Garden justifies the necessity of its presence through the experience in the Western Province of Sri Lanka. Having a proper mix of environmental and commercial agricultural concerns, the concept paves the way not only to address family food requirements but also to produce for markets under liberalized economies by promoting agro-entrepreneurship and social capital development attempts in urban communities.     

Building a better baseline to estimate 160 years of avian population change and create historically informed conservation targets

Globally, anthropogenic land-cover change has been dramatic over the last few centuries and is frequently invoked as a major cause of wildlife population declines. Baseline data currently used to assess population trends, however, began well after major changes to the landscape. In the United States and Canada, breeding bird population trends are assessed by the North American Breeding Bird Survey, which began in the 1960s. Estimates of distribution and abundance prior to major habitat alteration would add historical perspective to contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets. We used a hindcasting framework to estimate change in distribution and abundance of 7 bird species in the Willamette Valley, Oregon (United States). After reconciling classification schemes of current and 1850s reconstructed land cover, we used multiscale species distribution models and hierarchical distance sampling models to predict spatially explicit densities in the modern and historical landscapes. We estimated that since the 1850s, White-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta carolinensis) and Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta) populations, 2 species sensitive to fragmentation of oak woodlands and grasslands, declined by 93% and 97%, respectively. Five other species we estimated nearly stable or increasing populations, despite steep regional declines since the 1960s. Based on these estimates, we developed historically based conservation targets for amount of habitat, population, and density for each species. Hindcasted reconstructions provide historical perspective for assessing contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets that can inform current management.     

Use of Market Data to Assess Bushmeat Hunting Sustainability in Equatorial Guinea

Abstract: Finding an adequate measure of hunting sustainability for tropical forests has proved difficult. Many researchers have used urban bushmeat market surveys as indicators of hunting volumes and composition, but no analysis has been done of the reliability of market data in reflecting village offtake. We used data from urban markets and the villages that supply these markets to examine changes in the volume and composition of traded bushmeat between the village and the market (trade filters) in Equatorial Guinea. We collected data with market surveys and hunter offtake diaries. The trade filters varied depending on village remoteness and the monopoly power of traders. In a village with limited market access, species that maximized trader profits were most likely to be traded. In a village with greater market access, species for which hunters gained the greatest income per carcass were more likely to be traded. The probability of particular species being sold to market also depended on the capture method and season. Larger, more vulnerable species were more likely to be supplied from less‐accessible catchments, whereas there was no effect of forest cover or human population density on probability of being sold. This suggests that the composition of bushmeat offtake in an area may be driven more by urban demand than the geographic characteristics of that area. In one market, traders may have reached the limit of their geographical exploitation range, and hunting pressure within that range may be increasing. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to model the trade filters that bias market data, which opens the way to developing more robust market‐based sustainability indices for the bushmeat trade.     

基于TM影像的兰州市热岛效应及预测分析

近些年来随着城市建设的高速发展,热岛效应越来越被人们所重视。采用2007年的TM遥感影像,分析了兰州市热岛效应热场强度的分布规律,并应用灰色模型对其未来发展趋势进行了预测。研究发现：兰州市热岛效应明显且稳定存在,热岛中心主要分布在城关区、七里河区人口密度大以及西固区工业聚集的地方;植被和水体有减弱热岛效应的作用。灰色关联度分析表明：人为因素对兰州城市热岛强度效应的影响相对突出;其次,在气象因子中,风速对城市热岛效应的形成和加重也起到重要的作用。灰色预测结果表明：兰州市热岛强度将会持续波动上升,2012年将达到3.826℃。