An approach for risk reduction (methodology) based on optimizing the facility layout and siting in toxic gas release scenarios

In this work, a new approach to optimize facility layout for toxic release is presented. By integrating a risk analysis in the optimization formulation, we propose a safer assignment for facility layout and siting. Accompanying with the economical concepts used in a plant layout, the new model considers the cost of willing to avoid a fatality, i.e. the potential injury cost due to accidents associated with toxic release near residential areas. The proposed formulation incorporates a real meteorological data to calculate the injury risk through the probit model and Monte Carlo simulation using dense gas dispersion modeling (DEGADIS). The overall problem was initially modeled as a disjunctive program where the coordinates of each facility and cost-related variables are the main unknowns. Then, the convex hull approach was used to reformulate the problem as a Mixed Integer Non-Linear Program (MINLP) that identifies potential layouts by minimizing overall costs. This approach gives the coordinates of each facility, and estimates for the total length of pipes, the land area, and the selection of safety devices. Finally, the 3D-computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to compare between the initial layout and the final layout. Moreover, analyses of separation distances fr2om hazard facilities and hindrance effects will be discussed based on the approach used in this work.     

城市老城区消防站布局优化研究

采用半定量方法对单位火灾风险进行评估,进而对消防防护子区域进行消防等级分级,得出规划区域内消防安全等级分布状况。通过GIS方法结合相关模型,研究消防站的布局优化问题,探索使城市老城区消防站布局优化的思路与方法。将研究结论推而广之,类似这种在城市内寻找一系列服务设施点最佳位置的空间选址问题,都可运用此方法,采用GIS技术结合相关区位优化模型,得出更加科学合理的布局方案。     

Safety-based process plant layout using genetic algorithm

This paper presents a method based on a genetic algorithm for optimizing process plant layout. The relative location of main process units is determined to minimize an annual cost function including the cost of material transfer between process units (piping and pumping costs), land cost, and the expected annual loss resulting from damage to each secondary unit caused by primary accidents occurring in nearby process units. This method is an improvement over previous attempts using genetic algorithms or mathematical programming techniques to optimize plant layout, which neglected pumping costs and included safety issues by evaluating the infringement of predefined safety distances only. In this approach the operating cost of material transfer is included and the likelihood of accidents is taken into account thus providing good practical solutions to the plant layout problem incorporating more realistic cost functions and constraints. In the paper, after discussing the structure of the annual cost function and describing the working logic of the layout generating algorithm, a case study is described to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

How can process safety and a risk management approach guide pandemic risk management?

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) brought the world to a halt in March 2020. Various prediction and risk management approaches are being explored worldwide for decision making. This work adopts an advanced mechanistic model and utilizes tools for process safety to propose a framework for risk management for the current pandemic. A parameter tweaking and an artificial neural network-based parameter learning model have been developed for effective forecasting of the dynamic risk. Monte Carlo simulation was used to capture the randomness of the model parameters. A comparative analysis of the proposed methodologies has been carried out by using the susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered, deceased (SEIQRD) model. A SEIQRD model was developed for four distinct locations: Italy, Germany, Ontario, and British Columbia. The learning-based approach resulted in better outcomes among the models tested in the present study. The layer of protection analysis is a useful framework to analyze the effect of different safety measures. This framework is used in this work to study the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk. The risk profiles suggest that a stage-wise releasing scenario is the most suitable approach with negligible resurgence. The case study provides valuable insights to practitioners in both the health sector and the process industries to implement advanced strategies for risk assessment and management. Both sectors can benefit from each other by using the mathematical models and the management tools used in each, and, more importantly, the lessons learned from crises.     

Risk reduction concept to provide design criteria for Emergency Systems for onshore LNG plants

The functional safety requirement is widely applied in the process plant industry in accordance with the international standards, such as IEC and ISA. The requirement is defined as safety integrity level (SIL) based on the risk reduction concept for protection layers, from original process risk to tolerable risk level. Although the standards specify both, the Prevention System and the Emergency System, as level of protection layers, the standards specify in detail only the use of the Prevention System (i.e., Safety Instrumented System (SIS)). The safety integrity level is not commonly allocated to the Emergency System (e.g., Fire and Gas System, Emergency Shutdown System and Emergency Depressuring System). This is because the required risk reduction can be normally achieved by only the Prevention System (i.e., SIS and Pressure Safety Valve (PSV)). Further, the risk reduction level for the Emergency System is very difficult to be quantified by the actual SIL application (i.e., evaluated based on the single accident scenario, such as an accident from process control deviation), since the escalation scenarios after Loss of Containment (LOC) greatly vary depending on the plant design and equipment. Consequently, there are no clear criteria for evaluating the Emergency System design. This paper aims to provide the functional safety requirement (i.e., required risk reduction level based on IEC 61508 and 61511) as design criteria for the Emergency System.In order to provide clear criteria for the Emergency System evaluation, a risk reduction concept integrated with public’s perception of acceptable risk criteria is proposed and is applied to identify the required safety integrity level for the Emergency System design. Further, to verify the safety integrity levels for the Emergency Systems, the probabilistic model of the Emergency Systems was established considering each Emergency System (e.g., Fire and Gas System, Emergency Shutdown System and Emergency Depressuring System) relation as the Overall Emergency System. This is because the Overall Emergency System can achieve its goal by the combined action of each individual system, including inherent safe design, such as separation distance.The proposed approach applicability was verified by conducting a case study using actual onshore Liquefied Natural Gas Plant data. Further, the design criteria for Emergency Systems for LNG plants are also evaluated by sensitivity analysis.     

基于粒子群-支持向量机(PSO-SVM)的苯储罐泄漏事故风险预测

将支持向量机(SVM)模型运用于事故前苯储罐泄漏事故风险预测,为使模型性能最优, 用粒子群算法PSO优化SVM模型参数,建立了PSO-SVM风险预测模型。为验证模型风险预测性能,分别采用遗传算法(GA)和网格搜索法(GS)优化SVM参数,并比较测试集与PSO-SVM、GA-SVM、GS-SVM三种模型预测结果的均方误差及相关系数。然后进一步探讨模型中权重调整方式、种群规模对PSO-SVM模型预测性能的影响。研究发现,权重线性递减所建PSO-SVM预测值与测试集相关系数更高、均方误差更小、预测效果更好,种群规模没有影响PSOSVM模型预测值但会影响计算时间,这为危化品泄漏事故的风险预测提供了一种新的方法。     

复合物流模式下的机械加工车间安全布局设计

机械加工车间的物流形式不唯一,一般是小推车、天车等多种物流形式的复合,本文以河南省某机械加工车间为例,运用系统布局设置(SLP)方法,并综合考虑复合物流与危险源,进行车间安全布局。首先按照类型将车间分成13个区域,之后应用单纯型法核算车间内的复杂物流量,然后基于曼哈顿距离实现系统布局设置(SLP),最后综合考虑车间内的危险源以及小推车与天车的复合物流,得到作业位置相关图,并以此获得3个布局方案,再应用层次分析法从4个维度对方案择优,得出该车间的最优安全布局方案。     

企业电子商务风险的危害及控制

利用电子商务 ,企业能获得响应市场的灵活性 ,及时把握商机。但在提高和巩固企业竞争优势的同时 ,电子商务也给企业带来新的风险。这些问题解决不当 ,将给企业带来灾难性的后果 ,因而引起企业商务决策人的广泛关注。笔者论述了企业电子商务的物理风险、逻辑风险、技术风险、管理风险、企业与企业关系风险 ;电子商务中的财务、税收、金融风险 ,以及外部环境风险 ;分析了各种风险的原因 ;指出了可能对企业造成危害的严重性 ;其次论述了电子商务风险控制及防范 ,从国家层面和行业层面的电子商务风险控制 ,到企业层面的电子商务风险控制 ;充分利用有关技术系统设计控制、电子商务数据加密、电子商务数据完整性保护来回避风险 ;给出了避免和控制这些风险的具体方法     

Numerical study of choked two-phase flow of hydrocarbons fluids through orifices

Valves and orifices are the most widely devices of flow control used in oil and gas industry. In particular, they are installed in relief piping system in order to control the discharge flow during potential plant overpressuring scenarios, thus ensuring plant safety. It is a common practice to flow liquid and gas mixtures through such restriction devices.Rigorous models are available to precisely size pressure relief devices operating in single phase flow; however for two-phase flow, no models are considered sufficiently reliable for predicting the relevant flow conditions.In the present paper, two-phase flow of hydrocarbons fluids through an orifice under critical conditions has been numerically investigated.The existing literature has been analyzed and data on two-phase flow of highly volatile mixtures of hydrocarbons through openings have been collected. A comparison has been carried out with numerical simulations carried out by the multiphase flow simulation tool OLGA by SPT.The Henry–Fauske model has been used as orifice choke model and the orifice discharge flow coefficient, required as input by OLGA, has been calculated by Chisholm's model.Comparison between OLGA's results and experimental data shows that Henry–Fauske model markedly underestimates the mass flow rate through the orifice, if Chisholm's model is used to calculate discharge coefficient. It was found that the error of the model could be minimized using different values of orifice discharge coefficient (C_d).A new discharge flow coefficient model, suitable for choked two-phase flow across orifices, is proposed in this study and it has been determined to match the above mentioned experimental measurements.     

Integrating lean principles and fuzzy bow-tie analysis for risk assessment in chemical industry

In this research, a framework combining lean manufacturing principles and fuzzy bow-tie analyses is used to assess process risks in chemical industry. Lean manufacturing tools and techniques are widely used for eliminating wastes in manufacturing environments. The five principles of lean (identify value, map the value stream, create flow, establish pull, and seek perfection) are utilized in the risk assessment process. Lean tools such as Fishbone Diagram, and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) are used for risk analysis and mitigation. Lean principles and tools are combined with bow-tie analysis for effective risk assessment process. The uncertainty inherent with the risks is handled using fuzzy logic principles. A case study from a chemical process industry is provided. Main risks and risk factors are identified and analyzed by the risk management team. Fuzzy estimates are obtained for the risk factors and bow-tie analysis is used to calculate the aggregated risk probability and impact. The risks are prioritized using risk priority matrix and mitigation strategies are selected based on FMEA. Results showed that the proposed framework can effectively improve the risk management process in the chemical industry.     

HAZID方法浅析

结合实际工程建设项目开展危险源辨识（HAZID）分析的情况,介绍了HAZID分析方法的广义和狭义概念内涵,主要分析步骤、每步主要工作内容、典型引导词、分析形式和特点,并将HA-ZID方法与常用的过程危险源方法、尤其是HAZOP分析方法进行了对比,以帮助读者更好地理解、运用此方法。本文拟推荐的HAZID分析方法将危险化学品行业的风险管理向前延伸到项目的早期阶段（如项目论证、可行性研究、基础工程设计或初步设计阶段）,可以帮助项目组在项目建设早期认识与项目有关的健康、安全、环境（HSE）各方面问题的重要性和相关性,所辨识出的关键危险源及其危险,为下一步有重点、有目的地开展项目HSE风险管理确定了关注重点。在早期阶段进行HAZID分析,还可以有机会以最小的代价实现对项目厂址和总图布置的调整、工艺方案和设计原则的优化,可以避免后期再发现HSE隐患、必须整改时可能存在的不可实施性,或对项目费用、进度等产生严重负面影响。     

A fuzzy logic and probabilistic hybrid approach to quantify the uncertainty in layer of protection analysis

Layer of protection analysis (LOPA) is a widely used semi-quantitative risk assessment method. It provides a simplified and less precise method to assess the effectiveness of protection layers and the residual risk of an incident scenario. The outcome failure frequency and consequence of that residual risk are intended to be conservative by prudently selecting input data, given that design specification and component manufacturer's data are often overly optimistic. There are many influencing factors, including design deficiencies, lack of layer independence, availability, human factors, wear by testing and maintenance shortcomings, which are not quantified and are dependent on type of process and location. This makes the risk in LOPA usually overestimated. Therefore, to make decisions for a cost-effective system, different sources and types of uncertainty in the LOPA model need to be identified and quantified. In this study, a fuzzy logic and probabilistic hybrid approach was developed to determine the mean and to quantify the uncertainty of frequency of an initiating event and the probabilities of failure on demand (PFD) of independent protection layers (IPLs). It is based on the available data and expert judgment. The method was applied to a distillation system with a capacity to distill 40 tons of flammable n-hexane. The outcome risk of the new method has been proven to be more precise compared to results from the conventional LOPA approach.     

Risk assessment and risk reduction of an acrylonitrile production plant

Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority.     

Mapping human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents

Chemical accidents in the vicinity of densely populated areas can cause colossal damage. Close proximity of chemical facilities to the general public has been identified as a major issue for increased human exposure in 43% of the accidents investigated by the U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB). This emphasises the need for incorporating societal factors in risk assessment to plan actions in order to minimise exposure during accidents. The purpose of this research is to develop a model for the assessment of human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents. A GIS based methodology is proposed which uses computer aided hazard modelling tools and technical guidelines to model accidents and assesses population vulnerability. The population vulnerability is determined based on a set of societal indicators derived from relevant research work, expert opinions and suggestions by World Bank. Risk is defined as the probable magnitude of harm to humans and dependent on both the degrees of hazard and vulnerability. A case study is carried out by applying the methodology to Meghnaghat Industrial Area in Bangladesh. Accident scenarios are built and hazard modelling software ALOHA is used to spatially display accident footprints. Vulnerability of population is assessed using data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and field survey. The hazard footprints and vulnerability map are superimposed using mapping software ArcGIS to generate a composite risk map. The risk map is used to assess existing land use and recommendations are made for future land use planning. The composite risk map is expected to be of help for effective community response, emergency response planning and allocation of medical and support services during emergencies.     

A formulation to optimize the risk reduction process based on LOPA

This paper presents a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model to improve the computational use of the layer of protection analysis (LOPA). For a given set of independent protection layers to be implemented in a process, the proposed optimization model is solved to: a) Include costs associated with the different prevention, protection and mitigation devices, and b) Satisfy the risk level typically specified in the LOPA analysis through the occurrence probability. The underline purpose focuses on improving the analysis process and decision making to obtain the optimal solution in the safeguards selection that satisfies the requirements to be considered as IPL’s. The optimization is based on economic and risk tolerance criteria. As a first stage of this proposal, the safety instrumented system (SIS) design is optimized so that the selection of SIS components minimizes the risk and satisfies the safety integrity level (SIL) requirements. A case study is presented to validate the whole proposed approach.     

采用遗传算法优化气体探测器布局策略研究

石油石化装置具有结构复杂且危险性高的特点,所加工物料多为易燃易爆有毒物质,且工艺单元之间集成度高,一旦发生泄漏若无法及时探测到则易形成气液积聚和火灾爆炸后果强化,装置拥塞度高使人员逃生困难。火气系统FGS作为安全关键系统,其中的气体探测网络如何快速可靠的实现对气体泄漏事件的探测显得尤为重要。已知探测时间,通过引入遗传算法利用其全局搜索的特点克服传统分支定界法的缺点,实现立体空间不同高度下设置探测网络达到场景全覆盖和缩短探测时间,同时求出探测时间附近的多组最优解,为探测器放置提供多种布置方案。通过与传统等间距探测器布置方案比较,从多种布置方案中选择更符合实际的最佳方案。通过海上浮式生产储油船的生产夹板气体探测案例,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

RAPID-N: Rapid natech risk assessment and mapping framework

Natech accidents at industrial plants are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. For the mitigation of natech risk, authorities need to identify natech prone areas in a systematic manner. In order to facilitate probabilistic natech risk mapping, a unified methodology was developed that is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, determination of damage probabilities of plant units, and assessment of probability and severity of possibly triggered natech events. The methodology was implemented as an on-line, extensible risk assessment and mapping software framework called RAPID-N, which allows rapid local and regional natech risk assessment and mapping with minimal data input. RAPID-N features an innovative data estimation framework to complete missing input data, such as on-site natural hazard parameters and plant unit characteristics. The framework is also used for damage assessment and natech consequence analysis, and allows easy modification of input parameters, dynamic generation of consequence models according to data availability, and extension of models by adding new equations or substituting existing ones with alternatives. Results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps, which can be used for land-use and emergency planning purposes by using scenario hazards, or for rapid natech consequence assessment following actual disasters. As proof of concept, the framework provides a custom implementation of the U.S. EPA's RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology to perform natech consequence analysis and includes comprehensive data for earthquakes. It is readily extendible to other natural hazards and more comprehensive risk assessment methods.     

Revised fire consequence models for offshore quantitative risk assessment

Offshore oil and gas platforms are well known for their compact geometry, high degree of congestion, limited ventilation and difficult escape routes. A small mishap under such conditions can quickly escalate into a catastrophe. Among all the accidental process-related events occurring offshore, fire is the most frequently reported. It is, therefore, necessary to study the behavior of fires and quantity the hazards posed by them in order to complete a detailed quantitative risk assessment. While there are many consequence models available to predict fire hazards-varying from point source models to highly complex computational fluid dynamic models—only a few have been validated for the unique conditions found offshore.

In this paper, we have considered fire consequence modeling as a suite of sub-models such as individual fire models, radiation model, overpressure model, smoke and toxicity models and human impact models. This comprehensive suite of models was then revised by making the following modifications: (i) fire models: existing fire models have been reviewed and the ones most suitable for offshore conditions were selected; (ii) overpressure impact model: a model has been developed to quantify the overpressure effects from fires to investigate the possible damage from the hot combustion gases released in highly confined compartments; (iii) radiation model: instead of a point/area model, a multipoint grid-based model has been adopted for better modeling and analysis of radiation heat flux consequences. A comparison of the performance of the revised models with the ones used in a commercial software package for offshore risk assessment was also carried out and is discussed in the paper.     

毒气泄漏场景下基于蒙特卡罗的工厂布局研究

由于在工业生产中使用危险化学品会引起各种工业事故的发生,为了减小事故风险,降低由此产生的经济损失,必须将安全问题考虑在内,对工厂进行合理布局。采用蒙特卡罗模拟技术,研究某生产设施发生有毒气体泄漏的场景下,气象条件的不确定性对工厂布局的影响。以风向、风速及大气稳定性作为随机变量,通过扩散模型、概率函数和蒙特卡罗模拟得到中毒死亡概率。将上述随机方法应用在天津某个处于规划布局阶段的工厂内,以氨气泄漏为例,根据该地区常年风向分布及所得风险等值线图对工厂设施布局提出建议。案例分析表明:该工厂需要进行重新布局,应将受体设施布置在风险较小、风频较小的方位上;同时该随机方法能够为工厂布局提供决策支持。     

基于风险的化工园区布局优化决策支持系统

为加强化工园区风险辨识和布局优化,主要研究化工园区布局优化决策支持系统。在分析该系统主要功能的基础上,介绍基于风险的化工园区布局优化决策支持系统的理论模型:对化工园区重大危险源事故预测建模,包括重大危险源事故发生概率预测和事故后果预测;从个人风险、社会风险和财产风险3个模型评价化工园区区域动态风险,依据这3种风险值,计算区域综合风险;分别就功能区布局、消防布局和交通布局,对化工园区提出动态布局优化方法和建议措施。通过理论模型建立决策系统软件,结合实证分析,证明该决策支持系统的合理性。