Risk management of cost consequences in natural gas transmission and distribution infrastructures

A critical aspect of risk management in energy systems is minimizing pipeline incidents that can potentially affect life, property and economic well-being. Risk measures and scenarios are developed in this paper in order to better understand how consequences of pipeline failures are linked to causes and other incident characteristics. An important risk measure for decision-makers in this field is the association between incident cause and cost consequences. Data from the Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS) on natural gas transmission and distribution pipeline incidents are used to analyze the association between various characteristics of the incidents and product loss cost and property damage cost. The data for natural gas transmission incidents are for the period 2002 through May 2009 and include 959 incidents. In the case of natural gas distribution incidents the data include 823 incidents that took place during the period 2004 through May 2009. A two-step approach is used in the statistical analyses to model the consequences and the costs associated with pipeline incidents. In the first step the probability that there is a nonzero consequence associated with an incident is estimated as a function of the characteristics of the incident. In the second step the magnitudes of the consequence measures, given that there is a nonzero outcome, are evaluated as a function of the characteristics of the incidents. It is found that the important characteristics of an incident for risk management can be quite different depending on whether the incident involves a transmission or distribution pipeline, and the type of cost consequence being modeled. The application of this methodology could allow decision-makers in the energy industry to construct scenarios to gain a better understanding of how cost consequence measures vary depending on factors such as incident cause and incident type.     

Safety and human factors considerations in control rooms of oil and gas pipeline systems: conceptual issues and practical observations.

All oil and gas pipeline systems are run by human operators (called controllers) who use computer-based workstations in control rooms to "control" pipelines. Several human factor elements could contribute to the lack of controller success in preventing or mitigating pipeline accidents/incidents. These elements exist in both the work environment and also in the computer system design/operation (such as data presentation and alarm configuration). Some work environment examples include shift hours, shift length, circadian rhythms, shift change-over processes, fatigue countermeasures, ergonomics factors, workplace distractions, and physical interaction with control system computers. The major objective of this paper is to demonstrate the critical effects of human and organizational factors and also to highlight the role of their interactions with automation (and automated devices) in the safe operation of complex, large-scale pipeline systems. A case study to demonstrate the critical role of human organizational factors in the control room of an oil and gas pipeline system is also presented.     

基于模糊综合评价的城市燃气管网第三方破坏失效可能性研究

针对第三方破坏事故具有多样性、复杂性和不确定性等特点,建立城市燃气管网第三方破坏失效可能性评价模型。辨识出包括社会环境与公共关系、管道敷设状况、破坏与防控、管理与误操作以及自然环境等5类一级因素和19个二级因素,通过改进的层次分析法确定各级影响因素的权重,并运用多层次模糊综合评价法得出管道第三方破坏失效可能性的大小。以成都市某燃气管道为例进行验证分析,按照最大隶属度原则对评价结果进行处理。     

Systems thinking in a gas explosion accident – lessons learned from Taiwan

On July 31, 2014, at around 23:57, several huge explosions occurred that lasted for 2 h in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. As a result of a gas leak from a ruptured underground pipeline, the catastrophic incident destroyed more than 6 km of roads, killed 32 people, injured 321 people, and damaged 3259 buildings. Pipeline explosions have been reported as a repeatedly occurring problem, indicating that (1) complex systems are difficult to manage and control, and (2) humans are unable to effectively learn from experiences of accidents. Initial analyses results reveal that root causes of this incident were a combination of a series of complex chain reactions, which eventually led to propylene leakage and explosion. This is a systematic problem, which can hardly be investigated or analyzed by traditional research approaches. Based on the investigation reports and “systems thinking” method, this study develops causal loop diagrams for the Kaohsiung gas explosion to explore the root causes of the disaster. The research results indicate that (1) this pipeline explosion incident was the result of the chain reactions and was the output of a complex system; (2) the mental model of “production first” and “experience gap” were the root causes of the disaster; and (3) to achieve a higher safety standard, continuous education to improve the mental model of “safety first and safety over production” are essential. The findings of this study may contribute toward the improvement of the standard operating procedure for disaster management and preventing similar incidents in the future.     

基于TEM模型的民航不安全事件关联规则挖掘与分析*

为了预防民航不安全事件的发生,应用机组威胁与差错管理（TEM）模型分析2014—2020年民航事故/征候的航空安全报告资料,提取事件里存在于民航运行风险中潜在的情况、威胁、机组差错等因素,通过改进的关联规则方法挖掘其中的关联关系,包括挖掘与事件严重程度有关的因素,找到TEM模型中的关键因素和影响航空器结束状态的致因因素,并进行关联网络图分析。研究结果表明:手动操纵/飞行控制差错、缺少/不足的飞行培训和安全管理、飞行员之间沟通差错与程序执行错误是造成事故/征候的显著因素;关联规则能够有效利用航空安全报告信息,通过定量的方法挖掘事故/征候的特征,找到影响民航不安全事件的强关联因素,为民航安全管理人员提供决策依据。     

A review of quantitative risk assessment of onshore pipelines

This paper reviews and analyses frequency and consequences of failure of onshore pipelines transporting oil, refined products and natural gas. Generally accepted risk levels are indicated and a desirable risk range is proposed.Pipeline failure statistics from the United States (US), Canada, Europe and Brazil are compared. Failure rates for internal and external corrosion, human action and natural forces are analyzed and the expected failure rate for each failure mechanism is indicated. The effects of relevant construction and environmental factors on the failure frequency are studied and mean trends are obtained. Furthermore, the sizes of the holes indicated at different databases are compared and a typical distribution of failure sizes is proposed for each mode of failure. Finally, the frequency of ignition after a loss of containment is studied for gas and liquid pipelines.Historical data on consequences of the accidental loss of containment of onshore pipelines is reviewed. Property damage and environmental reparation costs are evaluated directly from pipeline failure data. Straightforward regression models are proposed to quantify these types of consequence taking into account the released fluid and the characteristics of the environment. Societal impact is evaluated by combining simple fire models, heat versus mortality correlations and population density.Finally, values for the desired risk level are evaluated by three methods: i) a risk value representing the good engineering practice; ii) the risk associated to the most relevant codes and regulations concerning pipeline risk assessment and/or construction and operation; iii) an analytically derived optimal risk level. The risk values obtained by the three methodologies are similar and a desirable risk range is proposed.     

Historical analysis of U.S. onshore hazardous liquid pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

Incidents at U.S. onshore hazardous liquid pipeline systems were analyzed with an emphasis on natural hazards. Incidents triggered by natural hazards (natechs) were identified by keyword-based data mining and expert review supplemented by various data sources. The analysis covered about 7000 incidents in 1986–2012, 3800 of which were regarded as significant based on their consequences. 5.5% of all and 6.2% of the significant incidents were found to be natechs that resulted in a total hazardous substance release of 317,700 bbl. Although there is no trend in the long-term yearly occurrence of significant natechs, importance is found to be increasing due to the overall decreasing trend of the incidents. Meteorological hazards triggered 36% of the significant natechs, followed by geological and climatic hazards with 26% and 24%. While they occurred less frequently, hydrological hazards caused the highest amount of release which is about 102,000 bbl. The total economic cost of significant natechs was 597 million USD, corresponding to about 18% of all incident costs in the same period. More than 50% of this cost was due to meteorological hazards, mainly tropical cyclones. Natech vulnerabilities of the system parts vary notably with respect to natural hazard types. For some natural hazards damage is limited possibly due to implemented protection measures. The geographical distribution of the natechs indicated that they occurred more in some states, such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana. About 50% of the releases was to the ground, followed by water bodies with 28%. Significant consequences to human health were not observed although more than 20% of the incidents resulted in fires. In general, the study indicated that natural hazards are a non-negligible threat to the onshore hazardous liquid pipeline network in the U.S. It also highlighted problems such as underreporting of natural hazards as incident causes, data completeness, and explicit data limitations.     

中压燃气管道泄漏工况下流量扰动幅度模拟分析*

为检测和定位燃气管道泄漏,基于泄漏定位公式,利用模拟软件Pipeline Studio构建等效中压管道模型,模拟不同工况条件下燃气管道泄漏动态。结果表明:泄漏发生后,一定时域内用户端流量将出现扰动,供气压力越高、供气量越大、泄漏孔径越小、管道长度越长,流量扰动持续时间越长;忽略管长影响,泄漏位置越接近气源,流量扰动幅度越易出现先增大后减小趋势,反之易出现单调递减趋势;泄漏端位置距离用户端越近,流量扰动幅度越大,反之越小。研究结果可为燃气管道泄漏检测和定位提供理论依据。     

Factors contributing to US chemical plant process safety incidents from 2010 to 2020

Process safety incidents can result in injuries, fatalities, environmental impacts, facility damage, downtime & lost production, as well as impacts on a company's and industry's reputation. This study is focused on an analysis of the most commonly reported contributing factors to process safety incidents in the US chemical manufacturing industry. The database for the study contained 79 incidents from 2010 to 2019, partly investigated by the Chemical Safety Board (CSB). To be included in the study, the CSB archive of incident investigations were parsed to include only incidents which occurred at a company classified as 325 in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), assigned to businesses that participate in chemical manufacturing. For each incident, all of the identified contributing factors were catalogued in the database. From this list of identified contributing factors, it was possible to name the ‘top three’ contributing factors. The top three contributing factors cited for the chemical manufacturing industry were found to be: design; preventive maintenance; and safeguards, controls & layers of protection. The relationship between these top contributing factors and the most common OSHA citations was investigated as well. The investigation and citation history for NAICS 325 companies in the Occupational Safety & Health Administration (OSHA) citations database was then analysed to assess whether there was any overlap between the top reported contributing factors to process safety events and the top OSHA citations recorded for the industry. A database consisting of the inspection and citation history for the chemical manufacturing industry identified by NAICS code 325 was assembled for inspections occurring between 2010 and 2020 (August). The analysis of the citation history for the chemical manufacturing industry specifically, identified that the list of the top contributing factors to process safety incidents overlapped with the most common OSHA violations. This finding is relevant to industry stakeholders who are considering how to strategically invest resources for achieving maximum benefit – reducing process safety risk and simultaneously improving OSHA citation history.     

穿越水体天然气管道的泄漏气和沼气的辨别技术

为精确分析天然气管道穿越水体或淤泥表面冒出气泡中气体全部组分及摩尔含量,排除天然气管道泄漏的可能性,对采集气体样品进行气相色谱检测与甲烷碳同位素相对含量检测。结果表明:通过对比穿越水体管道内天然气组分发现,2类气体样品存在很大特征性差异,排除天然气管道泄漏可能性。研究结果可为类似事件处置提供理论依据。     

Impact assessment of traffic-induced vibration on natural gas transmission pipeline

The purpose of this paper is to present a study of impact assessment of the traffic-induced vibration on a buried natural gas transmission pipeline. The basic assumption in this study is that the traffic on pipeline-transportation route crossing might have a significant impact on natural gas pipeline structural integrity due to the traffic-induced vibration which propagates from the road surface through the soil and excites the buried natural gas pipeline. The resulting dynamic stress causes pipeline material fatigue loading which consequently may cause pipeline failure with the gas release into the environment exposing the population and the buildings in pipeline vicinity to a significant threat. The experiment on operating buried natural gas pipeline was conducted where measurements were performed on the road surface, the two operating buried natural gas pipelines of external diameter 500 mm and 250 mm and on corresponding casing pipes. The measurement data analysis was performed and the results were used for determination of pipeline lifetime period in the model for theoretical estimation of pipeline lifetime which has been exposed to traffic-induced vibration. The findings of the study in this paper show that the traffic-induced vibration on given buried natural gas pipeline is detectable, however this vibration, compared to the other factors which are influencing pipeline's structural integrity, does not have a significant impact on pipeline lifetime period.     

Factors associated with occupational injury severity in the New South Wales underground coal mining industry

The relationship between a large number of mine and mine worker characteristics and injury severity was examined using multiple regression techniques. The study was based on data extracted from the New South Wales (N.S.W.) Joint Coal Board's computer based accident/incident reporting system describing 21,372 non-fatal, lost-time injurious incidents that occurred in the N.S.W. underground coal mining industry during the 4 year period from 1 July 1986 to 30 June 1990. The number of days lost as a result of an injurious incident was the best available proxy measure of injury severity. Over the study period, the number of days lost per 100,000 tonnes of raw coal production declined by 73%. Over the same period, injurious incidents involving more than 20 days off work, which constituted only 16% of all injurious incidents in underground mines, resulted in 75% of the total days lost for the whole N.S.W. underground coal mining industry. Factors that had practical importance and that were significantly associated with injury severity included mine worker's age, part of the body injured, type of accident, agency of accident, and mine worker activity. Factors not important or not significant in their relationship with injury severity were: time into shift, previous hours worked, mine location of incident, occupation, work experience, frequency of task, shift, and mining region. This study suggests that factors related to the susceptibility of a mine worker's body tissue to damage or repair, and factors related to the concentration of energy on the mine worker by vehicle and environmental characteristics are important determinants of injury severity.     

陕京二线输气管道风险预评价

采用EST法对建设中的陕京二线输气管道进行了风险评价,得到了管道的高风险区段.通过对评价结果的分析,得出了造成各管段风险值较高的原因,并提出了相应控制措施.     

Assessing the risk of secondary crashes on highways

IntroductionThe occurrence of “secondary crashes” is one of the critical yet understudied highway safety issues. Induced by the primary crashes, the occurrence of secondary crashes does not only increase traffic delays but also the risk of inducing additional incidents. Many highway agencies are highly interested in the implementation of safety countermeasures to reduce this type of crashes. However, due to the limited understanding of the key contributing factors, they face a great challenge for determining the most appropriate countermeasures.MethodTo bridge this gap, this study makes important contributions to the existing literature of secondary incidents by developing a novel methodology to assess the risk of having secondary crashes on highways. The proposed methodology consists of two major components, namely: (a) accurate identification of secondary crashes and (b) statistically robust assessment of causal effects of contributing factors. The first component is concerned with the development of an improved identification approach for secondary accidents that relies on the rich traffic information obtained from traffic sensors. The second component of the proposed methodology is aimed at understanding the key mechanisms that are hypothesized to cause secondary crashes through the use of a modified logistic regression model that can efficiently deal with relatively rare events such as secondary incidents. The feasibility and improved performance of using the proposed methodology are tested using real-world crash and traffic flow data.ResultsThe risk of inducing secondary crashes after the occurrence of individual primary crashes under different circumstances is studied by employing the estimated regression model. Marginal effect of each factor on the risk of secondary crashes is also quantified and important contributing factors are highlighted and discussed.Practical applicationsMassive sensor data can be used to support the identification of secondary crashes. The occurrence mechanism of these secondary crashes can be investigate by the proposed model. Understanding the mechanism helps deploy appropriate countermeasures to mitigate or prevent the secondary crashes.     

岩鹰山隧道内天然气管道泄漏规律及通风方案研究

采用经典流体力学理论,以及计算流体力学（CFD）等方法相结合,对中缅油气 管线上具有代表性的岩鹰山隧道进行研究。用Fluent软件对岩鹰山隧道天然气管道泄漏 进行仿真模拟,利用Fluent模拟结果与泄漏源计算结果相结合,经过理论分析与数据拟 合,提出泄漏天然气充满隧道的时间计算模型,通过不同边界条件下隧道内天然气泄漏 扩散规律的模拟结果对时间模型进行验算并修正。利用计算流体力学（CFD）方法,研 究岩鹰山隧道在发生天然气泄漏事故后,单风机通风方案的效率,得出隧道通风优化方 案,方案内容包括最佳送风方式、布设水平位置、布设高度、布设间距。根据通风方案 计算结果对风机型号选取、以及隧道洞门设计提出了建议。     

天然气管道完整性管理探析

通过对国内外天然气管道事故的统计和分析,指出了对天然气管道进行完整性管理的重要性;在此基础上,简要介绍了管道完整性管理方法,着重探讨了天然气管道完整性管理的流程和环节,包括管道潜在危害辨识、管道数据信息搜集与分析、管道风险评价、管道完整性评价、完整性评价响应和减缓措施,并进一步说明了天然气管道完整性管理的实施方法;最后,给出了在我国开展天然气管道完整性管理的必要性和建议.     

Bicyclist injury severity in traffic crashes: A spatial approach for geo-referenced crash data to uncover non-stationary correlates

Introduction: Bicyclists are among vulnerable road users with their safety a key concern. This study generates new knowledge about their safety by applying a spatial modeling approach to uncover non-stationary correlates of bicyclist injury severity in traffic crashes. Method: The approach is Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR), extended from the regular Ordered Logistic Regression (OLR) by incorporating the spatial perspective of traffic crashes. The GWOLR modeling approach allows the relationships between injury severity and its contributing factors to vary across the spatial domain, to account for the spatial heterogeneity. This approach makes use of geo-referenced data. This study explored more than 7,000 geo-referenced bicycle--motor-vehicle crashes in North Carolina. Results: This study performed a series of non-stationarity tests to identify local relationships that vary substantially across the spatial domain. These local relationships are related to the bicyclist (bicyclist age, bicyclist behavior, bicyclist intoxication, bicycle direction, bicycle position), motorist (driver age, driver intoxication, driver behavior, vehicle speed, vehicle type) and traffic (traffic volume). Conclusions: Results from the regular OLR are in general consistent with previous findings. For example, an increased bicyclist injury severity is associated with older bicyclists, bicyclist being intoxicated, and higher motor-vehicle speeds. Results from the GWOLR show local (rather than global) relationships between contributing factors and bicyclist injury severity. Practical Applications: Researchers and practitioners may use GWOLR to prioritize cycling safety countermeasures for specific regions. For example, GWOLR modeling estimates in the study highlighted the west part (from Charlotte to Asheville) of North Carolina for increased bicyclist injury severity due to the intoxication of road users including both bicyclists and drivers. Therefore, if a countermeasure is concerned with the road user intoxication, there may be a priority for the region from Charlotte to Asheville (relative to other areas in North Carolina).     

境外企业社会安全事件调查分析方法研究

针对我国境外企业在社会安全方面所面临的严峻形势,对境外企业社会安全事件的调查分析方法进行研究.通过对境外中资企业社会安全事件的分类、分级,事件报告和调查的程序,事件统计分析方法等方面的研究,提出境外社会安全事件的分类、分级的标准和原则,境外社会安全事件报告和调查的程序及主要注意事项及统计分析的建议,设计了境外中资企业社会安全事件管理的基本框架,从而加强社会安全事件的调查和统计分析,为科学统计此类事件造成的损失提供依据.     

Global process safety incidents in the pharmaceutical industry

The objective of this research is to analyse global process safety incidents within the pharmaceutical industry in terms of their consequences and factors contributing to the incidents. There were 73 process safety incidents leading to 108 fatalities found between 1985 and 2019. Trends between the number of incidents, number of fatalities, location, and contributing factors were identified and summarized. The most reported fatalities occurred in 2018 & 2019. 83% of fatalities occurred in China and India. Explosions were associated with 71% of incidents, which resulted in 89% of fatalities. For most of the international incidents, incident investigations were not available and thus insufficient details were available to determine the causes. Contributing factors were available or estimated from available data for about half of the incidents, with the following most common: hazard awareness & identification; operating procedures; design; safeguards, controls & layers of protection; safety culture; and preventive maintenance. These findings can be used as a basis to improve process safety performance in the pharmaceutical industry.     

What can the trove of CSB incident investigations teach us? A detailed analysis of information characteristics among chemical process incidents investigated by the CSB

Understanding the commonalities among previous chemical process incidents can help mitigate recurring incidents in the chemical process industry and will be useful background knowledge for designers intending to foster inherent safety. The U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) reports provide detailed and vital incident information that can be used to identify possible commonalities. This study aims to develop a systematic approach for extracting data from the CSB reports with the objective of establishing these commonalities. Data were extracted based on three categories: attributed incident causes, scenarios, and consequences. Seventeen causal factors were classified as chemical indicators or process indicators. Twelve chemical indicators are associated with the hazards of the chemicals involved in the incidents, whereas five process indicators account for the hazards presented by process conditions at the time of the incident. Seven scenario factors represent incident sequences, equipment types, operating modes, process units, domino effects, detonation likelihood for explosion incidents, and population densities. Finally, three consequence factors were selected based on types of chemical incidents, casualties, population densities, and economic losses. Data from 87 CSB reports covering 94 incidents were extracted and analyzed according to the proposed approach. Based on these findings, the study proposes guidelines for future collection of information to provide valuable resources for prediction and risk reduction of future incidents.