Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

Potential responses of terrestrial biodiversity in Southern Africa to anthropogenic climate change

Key studies supported by species-level data collection have provided early indications of the potential implications of unmitigated change for the ecosystems and biodiversity of southern Africa. These suggest a significant threat to biodiversity, both from changing bioclimatic suitability and changing atmospheric CO₂ level that seems to affect the competitive balance between woody and herbaceous plants in the dominant savanna biome of this region. Modeling efforts suggest significant implications of unmitigated climate change for this region, but assumptions underpinning methods such as bioclimatic modeling must be recognized, some of which might lead to over estimates of the rate and extent of the potential impacts. General trends and level of coincidence between various types of studies do support a high degree of concern for a substantial portion of southern African biodiversity under unmitigated climate-change scenarios. The most significant changes in ecosystem structure (both increases and decreases in woody plant cover), and associated faunal diversity changes, are projected in the dominant savanna vegetation type in this region, while the most significant biodiversity loss is projected for the winter rainfall region. Follow-up work to detect early signs of climate change identify regions of high- and low-potential impacts, and experimental work to test some important hypotheses relating to the future evolution of climate-change impacts across the region are very few and urgently required.     

Decline of woody vegetation in a saline landscape in the Groundnut Basin,Senegal

Several studies have documented that vegetation in the Sahel is highly dynamic and is affected by the prevailing climatic conditions, as well as by human use of the areas. However, little is known about vegetation dynamics in the large saline areas bordering the rivers of West Africa. Combining satellite imagery, the perception of local people and botanical information, this study investigated the vegetation dynamics and the drivers of vegetation changes in Fatick Province, Senegal. Satellite images showed a change in vegetation composition, i.e., a loss of tree cover and an increase in shrub cover, herbaceous cover and tans (highly saline areas with sparse vegetation). Although the trend was the same, the three villages had different vegetation histories. A survey of the woody vegetation showed that shrubs and young trees were dominating with relatively few large trees. Local people perceived a general decline of woody plants from 1993 to 2013. Among 60 species mentioned by local people, 90 % were declining and 10 % increasing. Together the three methods documented a decrease in density and diversity of the woody vegetation, mainly influenced by salinity and land use. The large numbers of young trees indicate a potential for regeneration of some, but not all, tree species. As many tree species appreciated by local people were reported to be declining, local communities have experienced a reduction of their natural resources. Based on villagers’ recommendations for improved vegetation management, we discuss possible contributions including reforestation, desalinization and environmental protection for restoration of the vegetation.     

Land-use and land-cover effects on regional biodiversity distribution in a subtropical dry forest: a hierarchical integrative multi-taxa study

Latin American subtropical dry ecosystems have experienced significant human impact for more than a century, mainly in the form of extensive livestock grazing, forest products extraction, and agriculture expansion. We assessed the regional-scale effect of land use and land cover (LULC) on patterns of richness distribution of trees, birds, amphibians, and mammals in the Northern Argentine Dry Chaco (NADC) over c. 19 million hectares. Using species distribution models in a hierarchical framework, we modeled the distributions of 138 species. First, we trained the models for the entire Argentinean Chaco with climatic and topographic variables. Second, we modeled the same species for the NADC including the biophysical variables identified as relevant in the first step plus four LULC-related variables: woody biomass, distance to crops, density of livestock-based rural settlements (puestos), and vegetation cover. Third, we constructed species richness maps by adding the models of individual species and considering two situations, with and without LULC variables. Four, richness maps were used for assessing differences when LULC variables are added and for determining the main drivers of current patterns of species richness. We found a marked decrease in species richness of the four groups as a consequence of inclusion of LULC variables in distribution models. The main factors associated with current richness distribution patterns (both negatively) were woody biomass and density of livestock puestos. Species richness in present-day Semiarid Chaco landscapes is strongly affected by LULC patterns, even in areas not transformed to agriculture. Regional-scale biodiversity planning should consider open habitats such as grasslands and savannas in addition to woodlands.     

Growth of the nesting colony of slaty-backed gulls (Larus schistisagus) and plant cover degradation on Shelikan Island (Taui inlet, the Sea of Okhotsk)

The size of Larus schistisagus nesting colony on Shelikan Island (8 ha in area) has increased from 2000 to 6000 pairs over 18 years. Today, this is the largest colony in the Sea of Okhotsk. The growth of the bird population has entailed catastrophic deterioration of the plant cover accompanied by a decrease in the species diversity of vascular plants: more than one-third of plant species recorded on the island in 1986 have already disappeared, and the establishment of several new plant species cannot compensate for this loss. If the size of the colony increases further, woody vegetation will fully deteriorate and only a thinned herbaceous layer consisting of 15–20 most resistant species will remain on the island.     

Dynamics of Tree and Shrub Vegetation in the Eastern Sayan Mountain Tundra

Russian Journal of Ecology - Climate change entails shifts in the ranges of woody plants along both latitudinal and altitudinal gradients in the boreal forest biome. In this study,...     

Agricultural adjustment,population dynamics and forests redistribution in a subtropical watershed of NW Argentina

Patterns of land-use and land-cover change are usually grouped into one of two categories defined by the dominant trend: (1) deforestation resulting from expanding agriculture and (2) forest expansion, usually related to the abandonment of marginal lands. At regional scale, however, both processes can occur simultaneously even in the absence of net change. Given the focus on net change, such redistribution of agricultural and natural and seminatural lands has been generally overlooked. The interaction between agriculture modernization, human demography and complex topographic gradients of northwestern Argentina has resulted in processes of both forest recovery and deforestation, thus providing the opportunity to analyze patterns and driving forces of land-cover redistribution. We analyzed 20 years (1986–2006) of land-cover change in a subtropical watershed in relation to topographic and demographic variables. Although net forest change represented <1 %, forests redistribution affected 7 % of forest lands. There was a consistent geographic segregation of deforestation and forest recovery, with forests expanding over steep highlands and agriculture expanding over lowland irrigated areas. Population trends were not associated to forest expansion in lowlands but they explained 32 % of forest recovery in highlands. Highland forest expansion and lowland deforestation, respectively, imply conservation opportunities for humid montane forests and the environmental services they provide (e.g., watershed conservation) and threats for the conservation of dry forests and its biodiversity. Our study exemplifies the importance of land-use redistribution (rather than net change) with relevant environmental consequences at regional scale.     

Land-use legacies in the forest structure of silvopastoral oak woodlands in the Eastern Mediterranean

Eastern Mediterranean silvopastoral oak woodlands have been greatly damaged through forest conversion, illegal lumbering, overgrazing, and forest fires. The aim of this study was to assess land-use changes and the legacies that they have imprinted on the forest structure of Quercus macrolepis and accompanying Quercus pubescens and Quercus cerris woodlands on Lesvos Island, Greece. The size structures of adult oak populations were analyzed as indicators of long-term oak regeneration, while short-term recruitment was determined by counting oak seedlings and saplings. The size structure of the adult Q. macrolepis population was similar to the inverse J-shaped distribution typical for natural Mediterranean oak forests, indicating continuous recruitment with a constant mortality rate of mature individuals. Seedling and sapling densities were highly variable, but generally low in relation to adult oak densities. Recruitment of oak seedlings and saplings was positively related to determinants such as forest cover, adult oak density and basal area, woody plant richness, and litter cover. Both seedling and sapling occurrence were negatively associated with dung frequency, which suggests that sheep grazing imposes a barrier to oak recruitment. The study outlines a comprehensive land-use transition from the 1950 to 1970s, during which a complex and multifunctional agrosilvopastoral land-use system was simplified to an intensive grazing system. The discrepancy between the successful long-term regeneration and the less successful short-term recruitment of oaks illustrates that intensified livestock grazing has been a major driver of vegetation change. Grazing impact is likely to interact with increasing drought conditions, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle that undermines the capacity of woodlands to sustain ecosystem services.     

Land-cover changes in and around a National Park in a mountain landscape in the Pyrenees

The current state of Mediterranean mountain areas has been driven by two main factors: intense traditional human activity and the dynamics of the ecosystem itself. In this study, we examine land-cover changes in a National Park in the Pyrenees mountains (NE Iberian Peninsula), which was designated a protected area 55 years ago. First, we have analyzed spatio-temporal changes in land-cover pattern and forest dynamics from 1957 to 2005. During this period, land-cover dynamics consisted of two main processes: (i) expansion of the forest area and (ii) increasing cover of forests already present in 1957. To analyze the role of the conservation level of the park, we have also compared the results obtained within the park with those of unprotected, peripheral areas. In the two areas with different protection level, dense forests increased throughout the period because of the reduction in forestry activities. The peripheral area showed a higher rate of forest-cover change from 1957 to 2005 compared to the National Park. This higher increase in forest cover in the peripheral area could be related to a higher proportion in the National Park of screes and rocky areas and to the decline and transformation of forest activities in these peripheral, lower elevation areas.     

Modeling Carbon and Water Budgets in the Lushi Basin with Biome-BGC

Abstract

In this article, annual evapotranspiration (ET) and net primary productivity (NPP) of four types of vegetation were estimated for the Lushi basin, a subbasin of the Yellow River in China. These four vegetation types include: deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needle leaf forest, dwarf shrub and grass. Biome-BGC—a biogeochemical process model was used to calculate annual ET and NPP for each vegetation type in the study area from 1954 to 2000. Daily microclimate data of 47 years monitored by Lushi meteorological station was extrapolated to cover the basin using MT-CLIM, a mountain microclimate simulator. The output files of MT-CLIM were used to feed Biome-BGC. We used average ecophysiological values of each type of vegetation supplied by Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group (NTSG) in the University of Montana as input ecophysiological constants file. The estimates of daily NPP in early July and annual ET on these four biome groups were compared respectively with field measurements and other studies. Daily gross primary production (GPP) of evergreen needle leaf forest measurements were very close to the output of Biome-BGC, but measurements of broadleaf forest and dwarf shrub were much smaller than the simulation result. Simulated annual ET and NPP had a significant correlation with precipitation, indicating precipitation is the major environmental factor affecting ET and NPP in the study area. Precipitation also is the key climatic factor for the interannual ET and NPP variations.     

Land-use portfolios and the management of private landholdings in south-central Indiana

In the study of land-use and land-cover change as an important contributor to regional environmental change, linking household level land-use decisions to particular land-cover patterns has been an enduring challenge. The frequent conflation of land use and land cover has been appropriate and fruitful in regions where extractive activities are common, but the decoupling of household characteristics from land-cover choices in exurban landscapes may require that the two be treated separately. This research employs the concept of a land-use portfolio, defined as a unique combination of land use types, and land cover derived from remote sensing to examine the relationship between land use and land cover at the parcel scale. Data on the type and spatial organization of land use were collected for individual parcels through sketch maps constructed by land owners and then described quantitatively using GIS and spatial metrics from landscape ecology. The results of this analysis suggest that in the naturally forested region of south-central Indiana, parcels are frequently managed as multiple types of land use thereby supporting the portfolio approach. Generally, land-management complexity is related to land-cover fragmentation, but the strength of this relationship varies across portfolio types. In addition, substantial amounts of forest land cover occur in non-forest land uses further supporting the need to treat the two separately to accurately link land use intentions and land cover outcomes.     

Identification of Forest Vegetation Using Vegetation Indices

Abstract

Spectral feature of forest vegetation with remote sensing techniques is the research topic all over the world, because forest plays an important role in human beings' living environment. Research on vegetation classification with vegetation index is still very little recently. This paper proposes a method of identifying forest types based on vegetation indices, because the contrast of absorbing red waveband with reflecting near-infrared waveband strongly for different vegetation types is recognized as the theoretic basis of vegetation analysis with remote sensing. Vegetation index is highly related to leaf area index, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and vegetation cover. Vegetation index reflects photosynthesis intensity of plants and manifests different forest types. According to reflectance data of forest canopy and soil line equation NIR=1.506R+0.0076 in Jingyuetan, Changchun of China, many vegetation indices are calculated and analyzed. The result shows that the relationships between vegetation indices and forest types are that perpendicular vegetation index (PVI) identifies broadleaf forest and coniferous forest the most easily; the next is transformed soil-adjusted vegetation index (TSVI) and modified soil-adjusted vegetation index (MSVI), but their calculation is complex. Ratio vegetation index (RVI) values of different coniferous forest vary obviously, so RVI can classify conifers. Therefore, the combination of PVI and RVI is evaluated to classify different vegetation types.     

Consumptive values and local perception of dry forest decline in Burkina Faso,West Africa

Traditional ecological knowledge and local experience of resource management and the usefulness of plant species can make important contributions to attempts to understand forest ecosystems and to develop effective sustainable management strategies for them. Therefore, the utilization of tree species by local people, their perceptions of changes in the surrounding forests, and suggested solutions for associated problems, were studied in the Sissili province of southern Burkina Faso. Information was collected through a combination of participatory rural appraisals, household interviews, and observational methods. Principal component analysis was used to analyze the consumptive values of woody species and their respective parts. A total of 82 species were identified, 90% of them were used for medicinal purposes, 78% for fodder, 73% for food, 67% for house construction, and 58% for wood carving. This suggests that forests play a key role in sustaining the rural livelihood and contributing to poverty reduction. The various stakeholders perceived that vegetation clearing for cultivation of cash crops (agribusiness) was the main driver of the change in forest cover. Species reported to be declining in the area included Parkia biglobosa, Pterocarpus erinaceus, Afzelia africana, Bombax costatum, Tamarindus indica, and Diospyros mespiliformis. Thus, a concerted effort should be made to manage the remaining natural forests in the country. Appropriate management strategies should be developed jointly by the local communities and external support groups to integrate the valuable local knowledge about forest species with the stakeholders’ suggestions in order to promote sustainable management of the region’s forest ecosystems.     

川西亚高山植被恢复过程中的土壤和地被物水源涵养能力评价

运用以空间代替时间，以糙野青茅草地、柳树灌丛、白桦林、混交林、冷杉林为植物自然恢复的序列，采用环刀法和实地调查-水浸法研究了川西亚高山植被恢复过程中土壤和地被物的持水能力。结果表明：土壤容重随深度增加而加大、随植被恢复而降低；土壤持水能力随深度增加而降低、随植被恢复而增加，表现为混交林>冷杉林>柳树灌丛>白桦林>草地；地被物储量及其持水能力随植被恢复极显著增加，其组成由草地的凋落物为主到冷杉林时以苔藓为主；生态系统土壤和地被物的持水能力随着恢复而显著提高，表现为混交林>冷杉林>柳树灌丛>白桦林>草地。因此，亚高山植被自然恢复能显著增加区域生态系统的土壤和地被物持水，适度增加阔叶树亦有利于促进川西亚高山恢复植被的土壤持水     

Drastic reduction in the potential habitats for alpine and subalpine vegetation in the Pyrenees due to twenty-first-century climate change

Recent climate change is already affecting both ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them, with mountains and their associated biota being particularly vulnerable. Due to the high conservation value of mountain ecosystems, reliable science-based information is needed to implement additional conservation efforts in order to ensure their future. This paper examines how climate change might impact on the distribution of the main alpine and subalpine vegetation in terms of losses of suitable area in the Oriental Pyrenees. The algorithm of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to relate current environmental conditions (climate, topography, geological properties) to present data for the studied vegetation units, and time and space projections were subsequently carried out considering climate change predictions for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. All models predicted rising altitude trends for all studied vegetation units. Moreover, the analysis of future trends under different climate scenarios for 2080 suggests an average loss in potential ranges of 92.3–99.9 % for alpine grasslands, 76.8–98.4 % for subalpine (and alpine) scrublands and 68.8–96.1 % for subalpine forest. The drastic reduction in the potential distribution areas for alpine grasslands, subalpine scrublands and Pinus uncinata forests highlights the potential severity of the effects of climate change on vegetation in the highest regions of the Pyrenees. Thus, alpine grasslands can be expected to become relegated to refuge areas (summit areas), with their current range being taken over by subalpine scrublands. Furthermore, subalpine forest units will probably become displaced and will occupy areas that currently present subalpine scrub vegetation.     

Attributing changes in land cover using independent disturbance datasets: a case study of the Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

Detailed observations of natural and anthropogenic disturbance events that impact forest structure and the distribution of carbon are essential to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon pools and the associated emissions and removals of greenhouse gasses. Recent advances in remote sensing approaches have resulted in annual and decadal estimates of land-cover change derived from observations using broad-scale moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m–1 km imagery. These land-use change estimates, however, are often not attributed directly to a cause or activity and are not well validated, especially in tropical areas. Knowledge of the type of disturbance that caused the observed land-cover changes is important, however, for the quantification of the associated impacts on ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we provide estimates of the amount of forest land-cover change in a Mexican forested region and propose an approach for attributing the cause of the observed changes to the underlying disturbance driver. To do so, we collate geospatial and remote sensing data from a variety of sources to summarize statistics about the major disturbances within the Yucatan Peninsula, an “early action” region for the reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation, from 2005 to 2010. We combine the datasets to develop rules to estimate the likely disturbances that caused the observed land-cover changes based on their spatially explicit location. Finally, we compare our observed disturbance rates to those detected using classified land-cover data derived from MODIS.     

川中丘陵区植被遥感动态监测及其驱动力分析

川中丘陵区是长江上游重要的生态屏障,也是国家退耕还林还草和天然林资源保护工程重点实施区。近年来,由于气候变化与人类活动的影响,该区植被覆盖及生态发生了较大变化。利用该地区2000～2015年MODIS NDVI数据、气象和土地利用数据以及研究区统计数据,采用最大值合成法(MVC)、趋势分析法和相关系数法,分析了川中丘陵区经国家生态工程建设后的植被动态变化特征,并探讨了气候变化和人类活动对植被覆盖的影响。研究结果表明:近15年,川中丘陵区植被呈增加的趋势,增速为5. 84/10 a(P0. 01);31. 58%的区域植被NDVI显著增加,主要分布在嘉陵江中游和岷江中下游,2. 90%的区域植被NDVI显著减少,主要分布在城市中心及周边;研究区植被对降水的敏感性较气温更强,22. 08%的区域面积NDVI与降水是呈显著相关的,仅7. 69%区域面积NDVI与气温是显著的;森林、灌木和草地的NDVI增加明显,各自增加比例超过60%,而建设用地和湿地是NDVI减少最明显的土地利用类型;退耕还林还草和天然林资源保护工程的建设,对川中丘陵区植被覆盖的增长起到了积极作用。     

Abundance of orchids on calcareous grasslands in relation to community species,environmental, and vegetational conditions

The abundance of Orchidaceae on three calcareous grasslands is studied in relation to floristic composition, environmental and vegetational factors and plant traits (ecological and life forms). The aims are: (i) to identify a group of species that is significantly correlated with the abundance of Orchidaceae or with individual species of orchids on calcareous grasslands; (ii) to study the relationship between traits associated with habitat specialisation, community life forms and the abundance of orchids; (iii) to identify the main environmental and vegetational predictors of the abundance of orchids. A shortlist of species is found to be significantly correlated with the abundance of total orchids, Orchis pauciflora and O. morio. The life forms of the community species do not show any correlation with the orchids, with the exception of Orchis pauciflora, which tends to increase in communities rich in hemicryptophytes and poor in annual species. Analyses of Orchis morio seem to suggest that it has a high level of ecological tolerance. The most important predictors of the abundance of orchids are the substrate reaction (basic) and arid grassland with low herbaceous vegetation cover (i.e. high soil reaction and luminosity values, positive correlation with the cover of lichens and rockiness, negative correlation with tree cover and herbaceous layer). The least favourable sites were the least basic and most superficial and arid sites.     

Identification of Forest Vegetation Using Vegetation Indices

Spectral feature of forest vegetation with remote sensing techniques is the research topic all over the world, because forest plays an important role in human beings' living environment. Research on vegetation classification with vegetation index is still very little recently. This paper proposes a method of identifying forest types based on vegetation indices, because the contrast of absorbing red waveband with reflecting near-infrared waveband strongly for different vegetation types is recognized as the theoretic basis of vegetation analysis with remote sensing. Vegetation index is highly related to leaf area index, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and vegetation cover. Vegetation index reflects photosynthesis intensity of plants and manifests different forest types. According to reflectance data of forest canopy and soil line equation NIR=1.506R+0.0076 in Jingyuetan, Changchun of China, many vegetation indices are calculated and analyzed. The result shows that the relationships between veg     

Modeling spatio-temporal change patterns of forest cover: a case study from the Himalayan foothills (India)

The present study used temporal remote sensing data for 1990, 2001 and 2006 to assess spatio-temporal patterns of forest cover changes in Shiwalik range of the Himalaya, Dehradun forest division. Forests are innately associated to human well-being. However, with the increasing anthropogenic activities, deforestation has increased. Quantitative change analysis of the forest cover for the past two decades provides valuable insight into the forest conservation vis-à-vis anthropogenic activities in the region. Spatio-temporal datasets along with biotic and abiotic variables provide opportunities to model the forest cover change further. The present study investigates forest cover change and predicts status of forest cover in the Dehradun forest division. Land Change Modeller (LCM) was used to predict status of forest cover for 2010 and 2015 using current disturbance scenarios. Comparing actual LULC of 2006 with the predicted LULC of 2006 validated change prediction model and agreement was 61.03%. The forested areas are getting degraded due to anthropogenic activities, but deforestation/degradation does not contribute much in expanding urban area. Agricultural areas and fallow lands are the main contributors to increased urban area. The study demonstrates the potential of geospatial tools to understand spatio-temporal forest cover change and generate the future scenarios.