Regionalization of Landscape Pattern Indices Using Multivariate Cluster Analysis

Regionalization, or the grouping of objects in space, is a useful tool for organizing, visualizing, and synthesizing the information contained in multivariate spatial data. Landscape pattern indices can be used to quantify the spatial pattern (composition and configuration) of land cover features. Observable patterns can be linked to underlying processes affecting the generation of landscape patterns (e.g., forest harvesting). The objective of this research is to develop an approach for investigating the spatial distribution of forest pattern across a study area where forest harvesting, other anthropogenic activities, and topography, are all influencing forest pattern. We generate spatial pattern regions (SPR) that describe forest pattern with a regionalization approach. Analysis is performed using a 2006 land cover dataset covering the Prince George and Quesnel Forest Districts, 5.5 million ha of primarily forested land base situated within the interior plateau of British Columbia, Canada. Multivariate cluster analysis (with the CLARA algorithm) is used to group landscape objects containing forest pattern information into SPR. Of the six generated SPR, the second cluster (SPR2) is the most prevalent covering 22% of the study area. On average, landscapes in SPR2 are comprised of 55.5% forest cover, and contain the highest number of patches, and forest/non-forest joins, indicating highly fragmented landscapes. Regionalization of landscape pattern metrics provides a useful approach for examining the spatial distribution of forest pattern. Where forest patterns are associated with positive or negative environmental conditions, SPR can be used to identify similar regions for conservation or management activities.     

Landscape Trends in Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States Ecoregions

Landscape pattern and composition metrics are potential indicators for broad-scale monitoring of change and for relating change to human and ecological processes. We used a probability sample of 20-km × 20-km sampling blocks to characterize landscape composition and pattern in five US ecoregions: the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain, Southeastern Plains, Northern Piedmont, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge Mountains. Land use/land cover (LULC) data for five dates between 1972 and 2000 were obtained for each sample block. Analyses focused on quantifying trends in selected landscape pattern metrics by ecoregion and comparing trends in land cover proportions and pattern metrics among ecoregions. Repeated measures analysis of the landscape pattern documented a statistically significant trend in all five ecoregions towards a more fine-grained landscape from the early 1970s through 2000. The ecologically important forest cover class also became more fine-grained with time (i.e., more numerous and smaller forest patches). Trends in LULC, forest edge, and forest percent like adjacencies differed among ecoregions. These results suggest that ecoregions provide a geographically coherent way to regionalize the story of national land use and land cover change in the United States. This study provides new information on LULC change in the southeast United States. Previous studies of the region from the 1930s to the 1980s showed a decrease in landscape fragmentation and an increase in percent forest, while this study showed an increase in forest fragmentation and a loss of forest cover.     

From Forest Landscape to Agricultural Landscape in the Developing Tropical Country of Malaysia: Pattern,Process, and Their Significance on Policy

Agricultural expansion and deforestation are spatial processes of land transformation that impact on landscape pattern. In peninsular Malaysia, the conversion of forested areas into two major cash crops—rubber and oil palm plantations—has been identified as driving significant environmental change. To date, there has been insufficient literature studying the link between changes in landscape patterns and land-related development policies. Therefore, this paper examines: (i) the links between development policies and changes in land use/land cover and landscape pattern and (ii) the significance and implications of these links for future development policies. The objective is to generate insights on the changing process of land use/land cover and landscape pattern as a functional response to development policies and their consequences for environmental conditions. Over the last century, the development of cash crops has changed the country from one dominated by natural landscapes to one dominated by agricultural landscapes. But the last decade of the century saw urbanization beginning to impact significantly. This process aligned with the establishment of various development policies, from land development for agriculture between the mid 1950s and the 1970s to an emphasis on manufacturing from the 1980s onward. Based on a case study in Selangor, peninsular Malaysia, a model of landscape pattern change is presented. It contains three stages according to the relative importance of rubber (first stage: 1900–1950s), oil palm (second stage: 1960s–1970s), and urban (third stage: 1980s–1990s) development that influenced landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity. The environmental consequences of this change have been depicted through loss of biodiversity, geohazard incidences, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. The spatial ecological information can be useful to development policy formulation, allowing diagnosis of the country’s “health” and sustainability. The final section outlines the usefulness of landscape analysis in the policy-making process to prevent further fragmentation of the landscape and forest loss in Malaysia in the face of rapid economic development.

Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use Change on Forest Rodents in Indiana

Forest cover in the upper Wabash River basin in Indiana was fragmented due to agricultural conversion beginning more than 175 years ago. Currently, urban expansion is an important driver of land-use change in the basin. A land transformation model was applied to the basin to forecast land use from 2000 to 2020. We assessed the effect of this projected land-use change scenario on five forest rodent species at three scales: using occupancy models at the patch level, proportional occupancy models at the landscape level, and ecologically scaled landscape indices to assess the change in connectivity at the watershed level. At the patch and landscape scales, occupancy models had low predictability but suggest that gray squirrels are most susceptible to land-use change. At the watershed scale, declines in connectivity did not correspond with the decline of forest. This study highlights the importance of map resolution and consideration of matrix elements in constructing forecast models. Unforeseen drivers of land use, such as changing economic incentives, may also have important ramifications.     

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/-9.2)ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation.     

PREDICTABILITY OF SURFACE WATER POLLUTION LOADING IN PENNSYLVANIA USING WATERSHED‐BASED LANDSCAPE MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: We formally evaluated the relationship between landscape characteristics and surface water quality in the state of Pennsylvania (USA) by regressing two different types of pollutant responses on landscape variables that were measured for whole watersheds. One response was the monthly exported mass of nitrogen estimated from field measurements, while the other response was a GIS‐modeled pollution potential index. Regression models were built by the stepwise selection protocol, choosing an optimal set of landscape predictors. After factoring out the effect of physiography, the dominant predictors were the proportion of “annual herbaceous” land and “total herbaceous” land for the nitrogen loading and pollution potential index, respectively. The strength of these single predictors is encouraging because the marginal land cover proportions are the simplest landscape measurements to obtain once a land cover map is in hand; however, the optimal set of predictors also included several measurements of spatial pattern. Thus, for watersheds at this general hierarchical scale, gross landscape pattern may be an important influence on instream pollution loading. Overall, there is strong evidence that using landscape measurements alone, obtained solely from remotely sensed data, can explain most of the water quality variability (R²= approx. 0.75) within these watersheds.     

Multi-scale analysis of oxygen demand trends in an urbanizing Oregon watershed, USA

Human alteration of the landscape has an extensive influence on the biogeochemical processes that drive oxygen cycling in streams. We estimated trends from the mid-1990s to 2003, using the seasonal Mann-Kendall's test, for percent saturation dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), and ammonia-nitrogen (NH(3)-N) for 12 sites in the Rock Creek watershed, northwest Oregon, USA. In order to understand the influence of landscape change, scale, and stormwater runoff management on dissolved oxygen trends, we calculated land cover change through aerial photo interpretation at full-basin, local (near sample point) basin, and 100m stream buffer scales, for the years 1994 and 2000. Significant (p < or = 0.05) trends occurred in DO (increasing at five sites), COD (decreasing at seven sites), TKN (decreasing at five sites, increasing at one site), and NH(3)-N (decreasing at one site, increasing at one site). Significant land cover change occurred in agricultural land cover (-8% for the entire basin area) and residential land cover (+10% for the entire basin area) (p < or = 0.05). Correlation results indicated that: (1) forest cover negatively influenced COD at the full basin scale and positively influences NH(3)-N at local scales, (2) residential land cover influenced oxygen demand variables at local scales, (3) agricultural land cover did not influence oxygen demand, (4) local topography negatively influenced TKN and NH(3)-N, and (5) stormwater runoff management infrastructure correlated positively with COD at the local scale. This study indicates that landscape factors influencing DO conditions for the study streams act at multiple scales, suggesting that better knowledge of scale-process interactions can guide watershed managers' decision making in order to maintain improving water quality conditions.     

Comparing forest fragmentation and its drivers in China and the USA with Globcover v2.2

Forest loss and fragmentation are of major concern to the international community, in large part because they impact so many important environmental processes. The main objective of this study was to assess the differences in forest fragmentation patterns and drivers between China and the conterminous United States (USA). Using the latest 300-m resolution global land cover product, Globcover v2.2, a comparative analysis of forest fragmentation patterns and drivers was made. The fragmentation patterns were characterized by using a forest fragmentation model built on the sliding window analysis technique in association with landscape indices. Results showed that China’s forests were substantially more fragmented than those of the USA. This was evidenced by a large difference in the amount of interior forest area share, with China having 48% interior forest versus the 66% for the USA. China’s forest fragmentation was primarily attributed to anthropogenic disturbances, driven particularly by agricultural expansion from an increasing and large population, as well as poor forest management practices. In contrast, USA forests were principally fragmented by natural land cover types. However, USA urban sprawl contributed more to forest fragmentation than in China. This is closely tied to the USA’s economy, lifestyle and institutional processes. Fragmentation maps were generated from this study, which provide valuable insights and implications regarding habitat planning for rare and endangered species. Such maps enable development of strategic plans for sustainable forest management by identifying areas with high amounts of human-induced fragmentation, which improve risk assessments and enable better targeting for protection and remediation efforts. Because forest fragmentation is a long-term, complex process that is highly related to political, institutional, economic and philosophical arenas, both nations need to take effective and comprehensive measures to mitigate the negative effects of forest loss and fragmentation on the existing forest ecosystems.     

Land-Use Systems and Resilience of Tropical Rain Forests in the Tehuantepec Isthmus,Mexico

Land-cover types were analyzed for 1970, 1990 and 2000 as the bases for determining land-use systems and their influence on the resilience of tropical rain forests in the Tehuantepec Isthmus, Mexico. Deforestation (DR) and mean annual transformation rates were calculated from land-cover change data; thus, the classification of land-use change processes was determined according to their impact on resilience: a) Modification, including land-cover conservation and intensification, and b) Conversion, including disturbance and regeneration processes. Regeneration processes, from secondary vegetation under extensive use, cultivated vegetation under intensive use, and cultivated or induced vegetation under extensive use to mature or secondary vegetation, have high resilience capacity. In contrast, cattle-raising is characterized by rapid expansion, long-lasting change, and intense damages; thus, recent disturbance processes, which include the conversion to cattle-raising, provoke the downfall of the traditional agricultural system, and nullify the capacity of resilience of tropical rain forest. The land-use cover change processes reveal a) the existence of four land-use systems (forestry, extensive agriculture, extensive cattle-raising, and intensive uses) and b) a trend towards the replacement of agricultural and forestry systems by extensive cattle-raising, which was consolidated during 1990–2000 (DR of evergreen tropical rain forest=4.6%). Only the forestry system, which is not subject to deforestation, but is affected by factors such as selective timber, extraction, firewood collection, grazing, or human-induced fire, is considered to have high resilience (2 years), compared to agriculture (2–10 years) or cattle-raising (nonresilient). It is concluded that the analysis of land-use systems is essential for understanding the implications of land-use cover dynamics on forest recovery and land degradation in tropical rain forests.     

Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis and Prediction in the Upper Reaches of the Minjiang River,China

Scientists have aimed at exploring land use and land cover change (LUCC) and modeling future landscape pattern in order to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of these phenomena. This study addresses LUCC in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, China, from 1974 to 2000. Based on remotely sensed images, LUCC and landscape pattern change were assessed using cross-tabulation and landscape metrics. Then, using the CLUE-S model, changes in area of four types of land cover were predicted for two scenarios considering forest polices over the next 20 years. Results showed that forestland decreased from 1974 to 2000 due to continuous deforestation, while grassland and shrubland increased correspondingly. At the same time, the farmland and settlement land increased dramatically. Landscape fragmentation in the study area accompanied these changes. Forestland, grassland, and farmland take opposite trajectories in the two scenarios, as does landscape fragmentation. LUCC has led to ecological consequences, such as biodiversity loss and lowering of ecological carrying capacity.     

不同生态区域油气田开发对土地覆盖变化的影响

利用RS-GIS技术,分析了四川合兴场气田周围1988年和2000年TM影像和新疆艾桑油气田周围1992年和2000年TM影像土地变化情况。分析结果表明:生态发达的四川合兴场气田周围在油田田开发前后主要为耕地,而建设用地在1988年占区域面积的12.6%,到2000年增加到17.8%。位于生态脆弱区的艾桑油气田,兴建前后主要土地利用类型均为戈壁荒漠、盐碱地,建设用地面积则明显增加,从1992年占总面积的0.02%增加到2000年的0.24%。由此可见,大面积分布式的油气田开发改变了油气田周围土地利用类型的分布。景观格局分析指数表明,四川合兴场周围多样性指数及均匀度指数均呈增加趋势,而艾桑油气田周围多样性指数及均匀度指数均呈现下降趋势。四川合兴场气田周围空间景观呈多样化发展,而新疆艾桑油气田周围空间景观多样性下降,荒漠土地呈扩大化发展趋势。     

Lakes,Wetlands, and Streams as Predictors of Land Use/Cover Distribution

The importance of the surrounding landscape to aquatic ecosystems has been well established. Most research linking aquatic ecosystems to landscapes has focused on the one-way effect of land on water. However, to understand fully the complex interactions between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, aquatic ecosystems must be seen not only as receptors of human modification of the landscape, but also as potential drivers of these modifications. We hypothesized that the presence of aquatic ecosystems influences the spatial distribution of human land use/cover of the nearby landscape (≤1 km) and that this influence has changed through time from the 1930s to the 1990s. To test this hypothesis, we compared the distribution of residential, agricultural, and forested land use/cover around aquatic ecosystems (lakes, wetlands, and streams) to the overall regional land use/cover proportion in an area in southeast Michigan, USA; we also compared the distribution of land use/cover around county roads/highway and towns (known determinants of many land use/cover patterns) to the regional proportion. We found that lakes, wetlands, and streams were strongly associated with the distribution of land use/cover, that each ecosystem type showed different patterns, and that the magnitude of the association was at least as strong as the association with human features. We also found that the area closest to aquatic ecosystems (<500 m) was more strongly associated with land use/cover distribution than areas further away. Finally, we found that the strength of the association between aquatic ecosystems and land use/cover increased from 1938 to 1995, although the overall patterns were similar through time. Our results show that a more complete understanding is needed of the role of aquatic ecosystems on the distribution of land use/cover.     

An Ecoregional Context for Forest Management on National Wildlife Refuges of the Upper Midwest,USA

To facilitate forest planning and management on National Wildlife Refuges, we synthesized multiple data sources to describe land ownership patterns, land cover, landscape pattern, and changes in forest composition for four ecoregions and their associated refuges of the Upper Midwest. We related observed patterns to ecological processes important for forest conservation and restoration, with specific attention to refuge patterns of importance for forest landbirds of conservation priority. The large amount of public land within the ecoregions (31–80%) suggests that opportunities exist for coarse and meso-scale approaches to conserving and restoring ecological processes affecting the refuges, particularly historical fire regimes. Forests dominate both ecoregions and refuges, but refuge forest patches are generally larger and more aggregated than in associated ecoregions. Broadleaf taxa have increased in dominance in the ecoregions and displaced fire-dependent taxa such as pine (Pinus spp.) and other coniferous species; these changes in forest composition have likely also affected refuge forests. Despite compositional changes, larger forest patches on refuges suggests that they may provide better habitat for area-sensitive forest landbirds of mature, compositionally diverse forests than surrounding lands if management continues to promote increased patch size. We reason that although fine-scale research and monitoring for species of conservation priority is important, broad scale (ecoregional) assessments provide crucial context for effective forest and wildlife management in protected areas.     

Landscape Changes in the Mullica River Basin of the Pinelands National Reserve,New Jersey,USA

In 1979, the Pinelands Commission was established as a regional land-use planning and regulatory agency charged with the implementation of a Comprehensive Management Plan (CMP) for the Pinelands National Reserve (New Jersey, USA). The CMP was created to balance land preservation and development interests in the Reserve. Because water-quality degradation from developed and agricultural landscapes is associated with changes in the composition of biological communities, monitoring landscape changes provides one of the most direct measures of the impact of land-use policies on the Pinelands ecosystem. In this study, we prepared detailed, land-cover maps within randomly selected aerial-photograph plots for a major watershed in the Reserve. We used these land-cover maps to quantify changes in landscape composition and structure (i.e., patch size, patch area, and number of patches) and characterize land-cover transitions in the basin between 1979 and 1991. Because the study period represented the first 12 years of the regional-planning effort in the Reserve, we evaluated the relationship between land-cover transitions and Commission management-area designations which permit different land-use intensities. Although the landscape composition was similar in 1979 and 1991, we found an increase in the total area and number of developed-land, managed-grassland, and barren-land patches. An increase in the number of patches and a decrease in the total area and median and third-quartile patch sizes for forest land and for all patches regardless of cover type indicated that fragmentation of forest land and the landscape as a whole occurred during the study period. The major land-cover transitions that occurred during the period were the loss of forest land to development and associated cover types and the conversion of one agricultural type to another. Overall, land-cover transitions during the period were found to be consistent with the Commission management-area designations, which indicated that the regional-planning effort has been successful in directing human activities to appropriate areas of the basin.     

Examining Landscape Dynamics at a Watershed Scale Using Landsat TM Imagery for Detection of Wintering Hooded Crane Decline in Yashiro,Japan

It is usually inappropriate to define rectangular land areas or administrative units as the extent for quantifying landscapes that possess hierarchical structure. As a functional unit established by geophysical relationships, the watershed is one of many natural scales in the hierarchical landscape. We examined the dynamics of the Yashiro watershed of Japan at the landscape level using pattern metrics based on Landsat thematic mapper (TM) imagery from 1985 to 1998. This watershed provides important habitats for the hooded crane (Grus monachus), a vulnerable species. While its world population has remained stable, the number wintering at Yashiro has declined in recent years. Changes in landscape metrics reveal that the spatial pattern within the watershed underwent homogenization due to depopulation of local people and shifts in local energy requirements and forest management policy at Yashiro. Specific changes include: a decrease in bare land area from 6.2% to 1.0% of the landscape, increased forest cover from 69.2% to 76.1%, reduction in patch number from 1194 to 616 and enlarged mean patch size, and a decrease in total edge from 223,740 m to 158,040 m. The rate of change in landscape metrics indicates a rapid change towards homogeneity in the landscape since 1990. The temporal changes in hooded crane populations corresponded to the changes in landscape. An alternative explanation has been proposed that decline of the species is influenced by landscape dynamics affecting both habitat selection and food resources. Conservation at the watershed scale is suggested to be complementary to the current conservation measures of the species.     

Anthropogenic effects on the biodiversity of riparian wetlands of a northern temperate landscape

Land uses such as forestry and agriculture are presumed to degrade the biodiversity of riparian wetlands in the northern temperate regions of the United States. In order to improve land use decision making in this landscape, floral and faunal communities of 15 riparian wetlands associated with low-order streams were related to their surrounding land cover to establish which organismal groups are affected by anthropogenic disturbance and whether these impacts are scale-specific. Study sites were chosen to represent a gradient of disturbance. Vascular plants of wet meadow and shrub carr communities, aquatic macro-invertebrates, amphibians, fish and birds were surveyed, and total abundance, species richness and Shannon diversity were calculated. For each site, anthropogenic disturbances were evaluated at local and landscape scales (500, 1000, 2500 and 5000 m from the site and the site catchment) from field surveys and a geographic information system (GIS). Land use data were grouped into six general land use types: urban, cultivated, rangeland, forest, wetland and water. Shrub carr vegetation, bird and fish diversity and richness generally decrease with increasing cultivation in the landscape. Amphibian abundance decreases and fish abundance increases as the proportions of open water and rangeland increases; bird diversity and richness increase with forest and wetland extent in the landscape. Wet meadow vegetation, aquatic macro-invertebrates, amphibians and fish respond to local disturbances or environmental conditions. Shrub carr vegetation, amphibians and birds are influenced by land use at relatively small landscape scales (500 and 1000 m), and fish respond to land use at larger landscape scales (2500, 5000 m and the catchment). Effective conservation planning for these riparian wetlands requires assessment of multiple organismal groups, different types of disturbance and several spatial scales.1998 Academic Press     

Representative Landscapes in the Forested Area of Canada

Canada is a large nation with forested ecosystems that occupy over 60% of the national land base, and knowledge of the patterns of Canada’s land cover is important to proper environmental management of this vast resource. To this end, a circa 2000 Landsat-derived land cover map of the forested ecosystems of Canada has created a new window into understanding the composition and configuration of land cover patterns in forested Canada. Strategies for summarizing such large expanses of land cover are increasingly important, as land managers work to study and preserve distinctive areas, as well as to identify representative examples of current land-cover and land-use assemblages. Meanwhile, the development of extremely efficient clustering algorithms has become increasingly important in the world of computer science, in which billions of pieces of information on the internet are continually sifted for meaning for a vast variety of applications. One recently developed clustering algorithm quickly groups large numbers of items of any type in a given data set while simultaneously selecting a representative—or “exemplar”—from each cluster. In this context, the availability of both advanced data processing methods and a nationally available set of landscape metrics presents an opportunity to identify sets of representative landscapes to better understand landscape pattern, variation, and distribution across the forested area of Canada. In this research, we first identify and provide context for a small, interpretable set of exemplar landscapes that objectively represent land cover in each of Canada’s ten forested ecozones. Then, we demonstrate how this approach can be used to identify flagship and satellite long-term study areas inside and outside protected areas in the province of Ontario. These applications aid our understanding of Canada’s forest while augmenting its management toolbox, and may signal a broad range of applications for this versatile approach.     

STREAM HEALTH RANKINGS PREDICTED BY SATELLITE DERIVED LAND COVER METRICS1

ABSTRACT: Land cover and land use change have long been known to influence the chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of streams. This study makes use of land cover maps derived from fine resolution satellite imagery and an extensive stream quality dataset to determine the relationship between small watershed health rankings and land cover composition and configuration. Landscape metrics were derived from digital impervious surface area (ISA), tree cover (percent), and agricultural crop maps within Montgomery County, Maryland. Watershed rankings were developed by state and county collaborators (MD‐DNR and MCDEP) using extensive biological and chemical measurements. In stepwise logistic regression models the factors accounting for the most variation in stream health ranking were the percent ISA, followed by the percent of tree cover. Riparian buffer zone tree cover was also a significant predictor. Of the metrics that considered the spatial configuration of the landscape, a contagion index and the percent of ISA in the flow path from the ISA to the stream were also found to be significant predictors of stream health. Despite limited ability to characterize landscape configuration or narrow riparian buffer zone vegetation with coarser resolution imagery (from Landsat), model results were not significantly different from those based on the use of fine‐resolution ISA information, suggesting that broader area applications of the approach are possible. The results indicate that management practices designed to improve stream water quality should focus on the amount of ISA and tree cover in both the watershed and within the buffer zone.     

Early Trends in Landcover Change and Forest Fragmentation Due to Shale-Gas Development in Pennsylvania: A Potential Outcome for the Northcentral Appalachians

Worldwide shale-gas development has the potential to cause substantial landscape disturbance. The northeastern U.S., specifically the Allegheny Plateau in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, and Kentucky, is experiencing rapid exploration. Using Pennsylvania as a proxy for regional development across the Plateau, we examine land cover change due to shale-gas exploration, with emphasis on forest fragmentation. Pennsylvania’s shale-gas development is greatest on private land, and is dominated by pads with 1–2 wells; less than 10 % of pads have five wells or more. Approximately 45–62 % of pads occur on agricultural land and 38–54 % in forest land (many in core forest on private land). Development of permits granted as of June 3, 2011, would convert at least 644–1072 ha of agricultural land and 536–894 ha of forest land. Agricultural land conversion suggests that drilling is somewhat competing with food production. Accounting for existing pads and development of all permits would result in at least 649 km of new road, which, along with pipelines, would fragment forest cover. The Susquehanna River basin (feeding the Chesapeake Bay), is most developed, with 885 pads (26 % in core forest); permit data suggests the basin will experience continued heavy development. The intensity of core forest disturbance, where many headwater streams occur, suggests that such streams should become a focus of aquatic monitoring. Given the intense development on private lands, we believe a regional strategy is needed to help guide infrastructure development, so that habitat loss, farmland conversion, and the risk to waterways are better managed.     

Integrating Landscape Ecology and Geoinformatics to Decipher Landscape Dynamics for Regional Planning

We used remote sensing and GIS in conjunction with multivariate statistical methods to: (i) quantify landscape composition (land cover types) and configuration (patch density, diversity, fractal dimension, contagion) for five coastal watersheds of Kalloni gulf, Lesvos Island, Greece, in 1945, 1960, 1971, 1990 and 2002/2003, (ii) evaluate the relative importance of physical (slope, geologic substrate, stream order) and human (road network, population density) variables on landscape composition and configuration, and (iii) characterize processes that led to land cover changes through land cover transitions between these five successive periods in time. Distributions of land cover types did not differ among the five time periods at the five watersheds studied because the largest cumulative changes between 1945 and 2002/2003 did not take place at dominant land cover types. Landscape composition related primarily to the physical attributes of the landscape. Nevertheless, increase in population density and the road network were found to increase heterogeneity of the landscape mosaic (patchiness), complexity of patch shape (fractal dimension), and patch disaggregation (contagion). Increase in road network was also found to increase landscape diversity due to the creation of new patches. The main processes involved in land cover changes were plough-land abandonment and ecological succession. Landscape dynamics during the last 50 years corroborate the ecotouristic-agrotouristic model for regional development to reverse trends in agricultural land abandonment and human population decline and when combined with hypothetical regulatory approaches could predict how this landscape could develop in the future, thus, providing a valuable tool to regional planning.