Assessing Impacts of Typhoons and the Chi-Chi Earthquake on Chenyulan Watershed Landscape Pattern in Central Taiwan Using Landscape Metrics

The Chi-Chi earthquake (M_L = 7.3) occurred in the central part of Taiwan on September 21, 1999. After the earthquake, typhoons Xangsane and Toraji produced heavy rainfall that fell across the eastern and central parts of Taiwan on November 2000 and July 2001. This study uses remote sensing data, landscape metrics, multivariate statistical analysis, and spatial autocorrelation to assess how earthquake and typhoons affect landscape patterns. It addresses variations of the Chenyulan watershed in Nantou County, near the earthquake’s epicenter and crossed by Typhoon Toraji. The subsequent disturbances have gradually changed landscape of the Chenyulan watershed. Disturbances of various types, sizes, and intensities, following various tracks, have various effects on the landscape patterns and variations of the Chenyulan watershed. The landscape metrics that are obtained by multivariate statistical analyses showed that the disturbances produced variously fragmented patches, interspersed with other patches and isolated from patches of the same type across the entire Chenyulan watershed. The disturbances also affected the isolation, size, and shape-complexity of patches at the landscape and class levels. The disturbances at the class level more strongly affected spatial variations in the landscape as well as patterns of grasslands and bare land, than variations in the watershed farmland and forest. Moreover, the earthquake with high magnitude was a starter to create these landscape variations in space in the Chenyulan watershed. The cumulative impacts of the disturbances on the watershed landscape pattern had existed, especially landslides and grassland in the study area, but were not always evident in space and time in landscape and other class levels.     

Landscape Trends in Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States Ecoregions

Landscape pattern and composition metrics are potential indicators for broad-scale monitoring of change and for relating change to human and ecological processes. We used a probability sample of 20-km × 20-km sampling blocks to characterize landscape composition and pattern in five US ecoregions: the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain, Southeastern Plains, Northern Piedmont, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge Mountains. Land use/land cover (LULC) data for five dates between 1972 and 2000 were obtained for each sample block. Analyses focused on quantifying trends in selected landscape pattern metrics by ecoregion and comparing trends in land cover proportions and pattern metrics among ecoregions. Repeated measures analysis of the landscape pattern documented a statistically significant trend in all five ecoregions towards a more fine-grained landscape from the early 1970s through 2000. The ecologically important forest cover class also became more fine-grained with time (i.e., more numerous and smaller forest patches). Trends in LULC, forest edge, and forest percent like adjacencies differed among ecoregions. These results suggest that ecoregions provide a geographically coherent way to regionalize the story of national land use and land cover change in the United States. This study provides new information on LULC change in the southeast United States. Previous studies of the region from the 1930s to the 1980s showed a decrease in landscape fragmentation and an increase in percent forest, while this study showed an increase in forest fragmentation and a loss of forest cover.     

Landscape Changes in the Mullica River Basin of the Pinelands National Reserve,New Jersey,USA

In 1979, the Pinelands Commission was established as a regional land-use planning and regulatory agency charged with the implementation of a Comprehensive Management Plan (CMP) for the Pinelands National Reserve (New Jersey, USA). The CMP was created to balance land preservation and development interests in the Reserve. Because water-quality degradation from developed and agricultural landscapes is associated with changes in the composition of biological communities, monitoring landscape changes provides one of the most direct measures of the impact of land-use policies on the Pinelands ecosystem. In this study, we prepared detailed, land-cover maps within randomly selected aerial-photograph plots for a major watershed in the Reserve. We used these land-cover maps to quantify changes in landscape composition and structure (i.e., patch size, patch area, and number of patches) and characterize land-cover transitions in the basin between 1979 and 1991. Because the study period represented the first 12 years of the regional-planning effort in the Reserve, we evaluated the relationship between land-cover transitions and Commission management-area designations which permit different land-use intensities. Although the landscape composition was similar in 1979 and 1991, we found an increase in the total area and number of developed-land, managed-grassland, and barren-land patches. An increase in the number of patches and a decrease in the total area and median and third-quartile patch sizes for forest land and for all patches regardless of cover type indicated that fragmentation of forest land and the landscape as a whole occurred during the study period. The major land-cover transitions that occurred during the period were the loss of forest land to development and associated cover types and the conversion of one agricultural type to another. Overall, land-cover transitions during the period were found to be consistent with the Commission management-area designations, which indicated that the regional-planning effort has been successful in directing human activities to appropriate areas of the basin.     

Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use Change on Forest Rodents in Indiana

Forest cover in the upper Wabash River basin in Indiana was fragmented due to agricultural conversion beginning more than 175 years ago. Currently, urban expansion is an important driver of land-use change in the basin. A land transformation model was applied to the basin to forecast land use from 2000 to 2020. We assessed the effect of this projected land-use change scenario on five forest rodent species at three scales: using occupancy models at the patch level, proportional occupancy models at the landscape level, and ecologically scaled landscape indices to assess the change in connectivity at the watershed level. At the patch and landscape scales, occupancy models had low predictability but suggest that gray squirrels are most susceptible to land-use change. At the watershed scale, declines in connectivity did not correspond with the decline of forest. This study highlights the importance of map resolution and consideration of matrix elements in constructing forecast models. Unforeseen drivers of land use, such as changing economic incentives, may also have important ramifications.     

Associations between forest characteristics and socio-economic development: a case study from Portugal

The integration of socio-economic and environmental objectives is a major challenge in developing strategies for sustainable landscapes. We investigated associations between socio-economic variables, landscape metrics and measures of forest condition in the context of Portugal. The main goals of the study were to 1) investigate relationships between forest conditions and measures of socio-economic development at national and regional scales, 2) test the hypothesis that a systematic variation in forest landscape metrics occurs according to the stage of socio-economic development and, 3) assess the extent to which landscape metrics can inform strategies to enhance forest sustainability. A ranking approach and statistical techniques such as Principal Component Analysis were used to achieve these objectives. Relationships between socio-economic characteristics, landscape metrics and measures of forest condition were only significant in the regional analysis of municipalities in Northern Portugal. Landscape metrics for different tree species displayed significant variations across socio-economic groups of municipalities and these differences were consistent with changes in characteristics suggested by the forest transition model. The use of metrics also helped inform place-specific strategies to improve forest management, though it was also apparent that further work was required to better incorporate differences in forest functions into sustainability planning.     

Impacts of changes in land use and fragmentation patterns on Atlantic coastal forests in northern Spain

Changes in forested landscapes may have important consequences for ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. In northern Spain, major changes in land use occurred during the second half of the 20th century, but their impacts on forests have not been quantified. We evaluated the dynamics of landscape and forest distribution patterns between 1957 and 2003 in Fragas do Eume Natural Park (northwestern Spain). We used orthoimages and a set of standard landscape metrics to determine transitions between land cover classes and to examine forest distribution patterns. Eucalypt plantations showed the greatest increase in area (197%) over time. Furthermore, transitions to eucalypt plantations were found in all major land cover classes. Forest showed a net decline of 20% in total area and represented 30% of the landscape area in 2003. Forest losses were mainly due to eucalypt plantations and the building of a water reservoir, while forest gains were due to increases in shrubland, meadows and cultivated fields which had been recolonised. Forest patch size and core area decreased, and edge length increased over time. In turn, increases were obtained in mean distance between forest patches, and in adjacency to eucalypt plantations and to a water reservoir. These results suggest an increase in forest fragmentation from 1957 to 2003, as well as a change in the nature of the habitat surrounding forest patches. This study shows that land use changes, mostly from eucalypt plantation intensification, negatively affected forested habitats, although some regeneration was ongoing through ecological succession from land abandonment.     

A Hierarchical Approach to Forest Landscape Pattern Characterization

Landscape spatial patterns have increasingly been considered to be essential for environmental planning and resources management. In this study, we proposed a hierarchical approach for landscape classification and evaluation by characterizing landscape spatial patterns across different hierarchical levels. The case study site is the Red Hills region of northern Florida and southwestern Georgia, well known for its biodiversity, historic resources, and scenic beauty. We used one Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper image to extract land-use/-cover information. Then, we employed principal-component analysis to help identify key class-level landscape metrics for forests at different hierarchical levels, namely, open pine, upland pine, and forest as a whole. We found that the key class-level landscape metrics varied across different hierarchical levels. Compared with forest as a whole, open pine forest is much more fragmented. The landscape metric, such as CONTIG_MN, which measures whether pine patches are contiguous or not, is more important to characterize the spatial pattern of pine forest than to forest as a whole. This suggests that different metric sets should be used to characterize landscape patterns at different hierarchical levels. We further used these key metrics, along with the total class area, to classify and evaluate subwatersheds through cluster analysis. This study demonstrates a promising approach that can be used to integrate spatial patterns and processes for hierarchical forest landscape planning and management.     

Relating landscape characteristics to non-point source pollution in mine waste-located watersheds using geospatial techniques

Landscape characteristics of a watershed are important variables that influence surface water quality. Understanding the relationship between these variables and surface water quality is critical in predicting pollution potential and developing watershed management practices to eliminate or reduce pollution risk. To understand the impacts of landscape characteristics on water quality in mine waste-located watersheds, we conducted a case study in the Tri-State Mining District which is located in the conjunction of three states (Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma). Severe heavy metal pollution exists in that area resulting from historical mining activities. We characterized land use/land cover over the last three decades by classifying historical multi-temporal Landsat imagery. Landscape metrics such as proportion, edge density and contagion were calculated based on the classified imagery. In-stream water quality data over three decades were collected, including lead, zinc, iron, cadmium, aluminum and conductivity which were used as key water quality indicators. Statistical analyses were performed to quantify the relationship between landscape metrics and surface water quality. Results showed that landscape characteristics in mine waste-located watersheds could account for as much as 77% of the variation of water quality indicators. A single landscape metric alone, such as proportion of mine waste area, could be used to predict surface water quality; but its predicting power is limited, usually accounting for less than 60% of the variance of water quality indicators.     

Preliminary comparison of landscape pattern-normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) relationships to Central Plains stream conditions

We explored relationships of water quality parameters with landscape pattern metrics (LPMs), land use-land cover (LULC) proportions, and the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) or NDVI-derived metrics. Stream sites (271) in Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri were sampled for water quality parameters, the index of biotic integrity, and a habitat index in either 1994 or 1995. Although a combination of LPMs (interspersion and juxtaposition index, patch density, and percent forest) within Ozark Highlands watersheds explained >60% of the variation in levels of nitrite-nitrate nitrogen and conductivity, in most cases the LPMs were not significantly correlated with the stream data. Several problems using landscape pattern metrics were noted: small watersheds having only one or two patches, collinearity with LULC data, and counterintuitive or inconsistent results that resulted from basic differences in land use-land cover patterns among ecoregions or from other factors determining water quality. The amount of variation explained in water quality parameters using multiple regression models that combined LULC and LPMs was generally lower than that from NDVI or vegetation phenology metrics derived from time-series NDVI data. A comparison of LPMs and NDVI indicated that NDVI had greater promise for monitoring landscapes for stream conditions within the study area.     

Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis and Prediction in the Upper Reaches of the Minjiang River,China

Scientists have aimed at exploring land use and land cover change (LUCC) and modeling future landscape pattern in order to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of these phenomena. This study addresses LUCC in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, China, from 1974 to 2000. Based on remotely sensed images, LUCC and landscape pattern change were assessed using cross-tabulation and landscape metrics. Then, using the CLUE-S model, changes in area of four types of land cover were predicted for two scenarios considering forest polices over the next 20 years. Results showed that forestland decreased from 1974 to 2000 due to continuous deforestation, while grassland and shrubland increased correspondingly. At the same time, the farmland and settlement land increased dramatically. Landscape fragmentation in the study area accompanied these changes. Forestland, grassland, and farmland take opposite trajectories in the two scenarios, as does landscape fragmentation. LUCC has led to ecological consequences, such as biodiversity loss and lowering of ecological carrying capacity.     

In search of effective scales for stream management: does agroecoregion,watershed, or their intersection best explain the variance in stream macroinvertebrate communities?

Our lack of understanding of relationships between stream biotic communities and surrounding landscape conditions makes it difficult to determine the spatial scale at which management practices are best assessed. We investigated these relationships in the Minnesota River Basin, which is divided into major watersheds and agroecoregions which are based on soil type, geologic parent material, landscape slope steepness, and climatic factors affecting crop productivity. We collected macroinvertebrate and stream habitat data from 68 tributaries among three major watersheds and two agroecoregions. We tested the effectiveness of the two landscape classification systems (i.e., watershed, agroecoregion) in explaining variance in habitat and macroinvertebrate metrics, and analyzed the relative influence on macroinvertebrates of local habitat versus regional characteristics. Macroinvertebrate community composition was most strongly influenced by local habitat; the variance in habitat conditions was best explained at the scale of intersection of major watershed and agroecoregion (i.e., stream habitat conditions were most homogeneous within the physical regions of intersection of these two landscape classification systems). Our results are consistent with findings of other authors that most variation in macroinvertebrate community data from large agricultural catchments is attributable to local physical conditions. Our results are the first to test the hypothesis and demonstrate that the scale of intersection best explains these variances. The results suggest that management practices adjusted for both watershed and ecoregion characteristics, with the goal of improving physical habitat characteristics of local streams, may lead to better basin-wide water quality conditions and stream biological integrity.     

An Ecoregional Context for Forest Management on National Wildlife Refuges of the Upper Midwest,USA

To facilitate forest planning and management on National Wildlife Refuges, we synthesized multiple data sources to describe land ownership patterns, land cover, landscape pattern, and changes in forest composition for four ecoregions and their associated refuges of the Upper Midwest. We related observed patterns to ecological processes important for forest conservation and restoration, with specific attention to refuge patterns of importance for forest landbirds of conservation priority. The large amount of public land within the ecoregions (31–80%) suggests that opportunities exist for coarse and meso-scale approaches to conserving and restoring ecological processes affecting the refuges, particularly historical fire regimes. Forests dominate both ecoregions and refuges, but refuge forest patches are generally larger and more aggregated than in associated ecoregions. Broadleaf taxa have increased in dominance in the ecoregions and displaced fire-dependent taxa such as pine (Pinus spp.) and other coniferous species; these changes in forest composition have likely also affected refuge forests. Despite compositional changes, larger forest patches on refuges suggests that they may provide better habitat for area-sensitive forest landbirds of mature, compositionally diverse forests than surrounding lands if management continues to promote increased patch size. We reason that although fine-scale research and monitoring for species of conservation priority is important, broad scale (ecoregional) assessments provide crucial context for effective forest and wildlife management in protected areas.     

Scale Effects on Spatially Varying Relationships Between Urban Landscape Patterns and Water Quality

Scientific interpretation of the relationships between urban landscape patterns and water quality is important for sustainable urban planning and watershed environmental protection. This study applied the ordinary least squares regression model and the geographically weighted regression model to examine the spatially varying relationships between 12 explanatory variables (including three topographical factors, four land use parameters, and five landscape metrics) and 15 water quality indicators in watersheds of Yundang Lake, Maluan Bay, and Xinglin Bay with varying levels of urbanization in Xiamen City, China. A local and global investigation was carried out at the watershed-level, with 50 and 200 m riparian buffer scales. This study found that topographical features and landscape metrics are the dominant factors of water quality, while land uses are too weak to be considered as a strong influential factor on water quality. Such statistical results may be related with the characteristics of land use compositions in our study area. Water quality variations in the 50 m buffer were dominated by topographical variables. The impact of landscape metrics on water quality gradually strengthen with expanding buffer zones. The strongest relationships are obtained in entire watersheds, rather than in 50 and 200 m buffer zones. Spatially varying relationships and effective buffer zones were verified in this study. Spatially varying relationships between explanatory variables and water quality parameters are more diversified and complex in less urbanized areas than in highly urbanized areas. This study hypothesizes that all these varying relationships may be attributed to the heterogeneity of landscape patterns in different urban regions. Adjustment of landscape patterns in an entire watershed should be the key measure to successfully improving urban lake water quality.     

Road traffic and nearby grassland bird patterns in a suburbanizing landscape

An extensive road system with rapidly increasing traffic produces diverse ecological effects that cover a large land area. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of roads with different traffic volumes on surrounding avian distributions, and its importance relative to other variables. Grassland bird data (5 years) for 84 open patches in an outer suburban/rural landscape near Boston were analyzed relative to: distance from roads with 3000–8000 to >30,000 vehicles/day; open-habitat patch size; area of quality microhabitat within a patch; adjacent land use; and distance to other open patches. Grassland bird presence and regular breeding correlated significantly with both distance from road and habitat patch size. Distance to nearest other open patch, irrespective of size, was not significant. Similarly, except for one species, adjacent land use, in this case built area, was not significant. A light traffic volume of 3000–8000 vehicles/day (local collector street here) had no significant effect on grassland bird distribution. For moderate traffic of 8000–15,000 (through street), there was no effect on bird presence although regular breeding was reduced for 400 m from a road. For heavier traffic of 15,000–30,000 (two-lane highway), both bird presence and breeding were decreased for 700 m. For a heavy traffic volume of ≥30,000 vehicles/day (multilane highway), bird presence and breeding were reduced for 1200 m from a road. The results suggest that avian studies and long-term surveys near busy roads may be strongly affected by traffic volume or changes in volume. We conclude that road ecology, especially the effects extending outward >100 m from roads with traffic, is a sine qua non for effective land-use and transportation policy.     

Regionalization of Landscape Pattern Indices Using Multivariate Cluster Analysis

Regionalization, or the grouping of objects in space, is a useful tool for organizing, visualizing, and synthesizing the information contained in multivariate spatial data. Landscape pattern indices can be used to quantify the spatial pattern (composition and configuration) of land cover features. Observable patterns can be linked to underlying processes affecting the generation of landscape patterns (e.g., forest harvesting). The objective of this research is to develop an approach for investigating the spatial distribution of forest pattern across a study area where forest harvesting, other anthropogenic activities, and topography, are all influencing forest pattern. We generate spatial pattern regions (SPR) that describe forest pattern with a regionalization approach. Analysis is performed using a 2006 land cover dataset covering the Prince George and Quesnel Forest Districts, 5.5 million ha of primarily forested land base situated within the interior plateau of British Columbia, Canada. Multivariate cluster analysis (with the CLARA algorithm) is used to group landscape objects containing forest pattern information into SPR. Of the six generated SPR, the second cluster (SPR2) is the most prevalent covering 22% of the study area. On average, landscapes in SPR2 are comprised of 55.5% forest cover, and contain the highest number of patches, and forest/non-forest joins, indicating highly fragmented landscapes. Regionalization of landscape pattern metrics provides a useful approach for examining the spatial distribution of forest pattern. Where forest patterns are associated with positive or negative environmental conditions, SPR can be used to identify similar regions for conservation or management activities.     

Afforestation Planning and Biodiversity Conservation: Predicting Effects on Habitat Functionality in Lithuania

Habitat re-creation is one of the multiple faces of biodiversity restoration and encompasses the attempts to reconstruct an ecosystem on severely disturbed sites with little left to restore. Afforestation of abandoned or marginal agricultural land is an important tool for the re-creation of forest ecosystems and re-establishment of functional habitat networks for the maintenance of biodiversity. This study was performed in the context of the Danish-Lithuanian project ‘Afforestation of abandoned agricultural land based on sustainable land use planning and environmentally sound forest management’. The study assessed how habitat re-creation as designed in alternative afforestation plans for two administrative regions in Lithuania will affect the functionality of the landscapes for bird species of conservation concern. Spatial analysis of the forest cover was performed under existing and proposed conditions using general landscape ecological principles concerning core and edge habitats as well as nearest-neighbour metrics. The results show that the use of general criteria may result in proportionally negative changes in the availability of some forest habitats relative to changes in total forest cover, thus leading to less significant improvements in the habitats of many naturally occurring (and even protected) species compared to what would be expected from changes in forest cover alone. To solve this dilemma it is suggested that the requirements of focal species and quantitative conservation objectives should be considered in a spatially explicit – each main forest type. It is concluded that to ensure functionality of habitat networks, knowledge and experience from the fields of landscape ecology and conservation biology should be more commonly incorporated into afforestation planning.     

Landscape Metrics for Assessment of Landscape Destruction and Rehabilitation

This investigation tested the usefulness of geometry-based landscape metrics for monitoring landscapes in a heavily disturbed environment. Research was carried out in a 75 sq km study area in Saxony, eastern Germany, where the landscape has been affected by surface mining and agricultural intensification. Landscape metrics were calculated from digital maps (1912, 1944, 1973, 1989) for the entire study area and for subregions (river valleys, plains), which were defined using the original geology and topography of the region. Correlation and factor analyses were used to select a set of landscape metrics suitable for landscape monitoring. Little land-use change occurred in the first half of the century, but political decisions and technological developments led to considerable change later. Metrics showed a similar pattern with almost no change between 1912 and 1944, but dramatic changes after 1944. Nonparametric statistical methods were used to test whether metrics differed between river valleys and plains. Significant differences in the metrics for these regions were found in the early maps (1912, 1944), but these differences were not significant in 1973 or 1989. These findings indicate that anthropogenic influences created a more homogeneous landscape.     

URBAN IMPACTS ON PHYSICAL STREAM CONDITION: EFFECTS OF SPATIAL SCALE,CONNECTIVITY, AND LONGITUDINAL TRENDS1

ABSTRACT: An assessment of physical conditions in urban streams of the Puget Sound region, coupled with spatially explicit watershed characterizations, demonstrates the importance of spatial scale, drainage network connectivity, and longitudinal downstream trends when considering the effects of urbanization on streams. A rapid stream assessment technique and a multimetric index were used to describe the physical conditions of multiple reaches in four watersheds. Watersheds were characterized using geographic information system (GIS) derived landscape metrics that represent the magnitude of urbanization at three spatial scales and the connectivity of urban land. Physical conditions, as measured by the physical stream conditions index (PSCI), were best explained for the watersheds by two landscape metrics: quantity of intense and grassy urban land in the subwatershed and quantity of intense and grassy urban land within 500 m of the site (R²= 0.52, p > 0.0005). A multiple regression of PSCI with these metrics and an additional connectivity metric (proximity of a road crossing) provided the best model for the three urban watersheds (R²= 0.41, p > 0.0005). Analyses of longitudinal trends in PSCI within the three urban watersheds showed that conditions improved when a stream flowed through an intact riparian buffer with forest or wetland vegetation and without road crossings. Results demonstrate that information on spatial scale and patterns of urbanization is essential to understanding and successfully managing urban streams.     

Quantifying Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics in the Jinsha Watershed, Upper Yangtze, China from 1975 to 2000

Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is critical to our understanding of regional patterns of carbon budgets. Here we use the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System to simulate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed of China’s upper Yangtze basin from 1975 to 2000, based on unique combinations of spatial and temporal dynamics of major driving forces, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the Jinsha watershed ecosystems acted as a carbon sink during the period of 1975–2000, with an average rate of 0.36 Mg/ha/yr, primarily resulting from regional climate variation and local land use and land cover change. Vegetation biomass accumulation accounted for 90.6% of the sink, while soil organic carbon loss before 1992 led to a lower net gain of carbon in the watershed, and after that soils became a small sink. Ecosystem carbon sink/source patterns showed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Carbon sinks were associated with forest areas without disturbances, whereas carbon sources were primarily caused by stand-replacing disturbances. It is critical to adequately represent the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use activities in regional biogeochemical models to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of regional carbon sink/source patterns.     

Managing Radioactively Contaminated Land: Implications for Habitat Diversity

Radioactive contamination of agricultural land may necessitate long-term changes in food production systems, through application of selected countermeasures, in order to reduce the accumulation of radionuclides in food. We quantified the impact of selected countermeasures on habitat diversity, using the hypothetical case of two agricultural areas in Finland. The management scenarios studied were conversions from grassland to cereal production and from grassland and crop production to afforestation. The two study sites differed with respect to present agricultural production: one being predominantly cereal production and seminatural grasslands, while the other was dominated by intensive grass and dairy production. Some of the management scenarios are expected to affect landscape structures and habitat diversity. These potential changes were assessed using a spatial pattern analysis program in connection with geographic information systems. The studied landscape changes resulted in a more monotonous landscape structure compared to the present management, by increasing the mean habitat patch size, reducing the total habitat edge length and reducing the overall habitat diversity calculated by the Shannon diversity index. The degree of change was dependent on the present agricultural management practice in the case study sites. Where dairy production was predominant, the landscape structure changes were mostly due to conversion of intensive pastures and grasslands to cereal production. In the area dominated by cereal production and seminatural grasslands, the greatest predicted impacts resulted from afforestation of meadows and pastures. The studied management changes are predicted to reduce biodiversity at the species level as well as diminishing species-rich habitats. This study has predicted prominent side effects in habitat diversity resulting from application of management scenarios. These potential long-term impacts should be considered by decision-makers when planning future strategies in the event of radionuclide deposition.