Effectiveness of the Local Adaptation Plan of Action to support climate change adaptation in Nepal

A key challenge in climate change adaptation in developing countries as a whole, and to handling global change in particular, is to link local adaptation needs on the one hand, with national adaptation initiatives on the other, so that vulnerable households and communities can directly benefit. This study assesses the impact of the Nepal government’s efforts to promote its Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) and its applicability to other least developed countries (LDCs). Based on data gathered from two field studies in Nepal, the research shows that the Nepal’s LAPA has succeeded in mobilizing local institutions and community groups in adaptation planning and recognizing their role in adaptation. However, the LAPA approach and implementation have been constrained by sociostructural and governance barriers that have failed to successfully integrate local adaptation needs in local planning and increase the adaptive capacity of vulnerable households. This paper describes the mechanisms of suitable governance strategies for climate change adaptation specific to Nepal and other LDCs. It also argues the need to adopt an adaptive comanagement approach, where the government and all stakeholders identify common local- and national-level mainstreaming strategy for knowledge management, resource mobilization, and institutional development, ultimately using adaptation as a tool to handle global change.     

Assessing local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in the context of climate change

Adaptation to climate change is a major challenge facing the viticulture sector. Temporally, adaptation strategies and policies have to address potential impacts in both the short- and long term, whereas spatially, place-based and context-specific adaptations are essential. To help inform decision-making on climate change adaptation, this study adopted a bottom-up approach to assess local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in two regulated wine-producing areas in the Anjou-Saumur wine growing sub-region, France. The data used for this study were collected through individual semi-structured interviews with 30 winegrowers. With a focus on wine quality, climate-related exposure, and sensitivity were dependent on many contextual factors (e.g., northern geographical position, wine regulatory frameworks, local environmental features) interacting with the regional oceanic climate. Climate and other non-climate-related variables brought about important changes in winegrowers’ management practices, varying in time and space. This ongoing process in decision-making enhanced winegrowers’ adaptive responses, which were primarily reactive (e.g., harvesting, winemaking) or anticipatory (e.g., canopy and soil management) to short-term climate conditions. Winegrowers described changing trends in climate- and grapevine (Vitis) -related variables, with the latter attributed to regional climate changes and evolving management practices. Regarding future climate trends, winegrowers’ displayed great uncertainty, placing the most urgent adaptation priority on short-term strategies, while changing grapevine varieties and using irrigation were identified as last resort strategies. The study concluded by discussing the implications of these findings in the context of climate change adaptation in viticulture.     

Beyond the black box: Forest sector vulnerability assessments and adaptation to climate change in North America

In the wake of the failures to date of well-publicized multilateral and multi-sectoral mitigation efforts to control greenhouse gases, attention is now increasingly focused on the effectiveness and capacity of national and sub-national level sectoral plans, including forestry, to usher in a new era of adaptation efforts. In Canada, the government of British Columbia spent several years developing its Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative as part of a larger climate change response strategy in the forest sector. Similarly, in the United States, wildfire related events have led to climate change inspired efforts by individual states (e.g., Alaska, California) and the US Forest Service has recently undertaken plans to incorporate climate change considerations in national forest planning beginning with the National Road Map for Responding to Climate Change. This paper highlights a number of shortcomings with both these national and sub-national strategies with respect to the relationships existing between governance, forestry and climate change. It proposes incorporating considerations of governance mechanisms directly into forest sector planning and the need to assess not only natural system level changes but also the extent to which new problems can be dealt with by ‘old’ or ‘new’ governance arrangements.     

Exploring farmer preference shaping in international agricultural climate change adaptation regimes

Questions of equity, justice, and fairness in the international agricultural adaptation regime have emerged in recent years, prompting interest in regime power dynamics. Here, a three-dimensional conceptual framework of ‘power as domination’ is applied to the UNFCCC adaptation regime. We argue that this ‘power-over’ framing is an important lens through which to view adaptation, a field dominated by ‘power-to’, capacity-based constructs. The framework distinguishes between power-over manifesting through decision-making, agenda setting and preference shaping. Through a literature review we demonstrate that first and second dimension behavioral views of power-over fail to account for the subtle ways in which the interests and preferences of smallholder farmers are unknowingly shaped and restricted within the regime. Potential sources of third dimension preference shaping power are explored in a survey with high-level decision makers involved in National Adaptation Plans (NAP) development in seven countries. The results suggest that several inter-related features of the international agriculture adaptation regime collectively contribute to the shaping of interests and preferences of smallholders: prevailing discourses of uncertainty and the perceived limited capacity of smallholders; the resulting privileged status of ‘expert’ decision makers; the predominance of neoliberal development rationalities; and systemic biases resulting from the nation state as the principle unit of UNFCCC negotiation. These forces lie beyond the explanatory scope of first and second dimensions of power-over and help to explain why stakeholder engagement in adaptation decision making remains superficial in nature and why adaptation responses in agriculture can be considered ‘common and non-differentiated’. We argue for increased awareness of third dimension manifestations and impacts of power in adaptation literature to facilitate the improved participation of marginalized stakeholders in UNFCCC and domestic adaptation decision making forums, to increase the diversity of adaptation options available to smallholders, and ultimately, to improve the attribution of responsibility for adaptation outcomes.     

Stalled regime transition in the upper Tisza River Basin: the dynamics of linked action situations

In river basins transformation from traditions of reactive flood defense to more adaptive management regimes is difficult. How regime components reinforce each other to set its development path may induce inertia and path dependency. Transformation may require profound shifts in the institutions, technologies, and personnel as well as the ecological, economic and social processes they influence in setting the basin's trajectory. Regime change has become an issue in Hungary following repeated failures of conventional management policies to handle a series of floods on the Tisza river starting in 1997. Increasing public participation pushed water policy debate toward more experimentation with alternatives, but implementation appears stalled. In this paper we review hypotheses about what factors are bridges or barriers to transformation and then use the Management Transition Framework to examine how the interactions linking action situations, operational outcomes, knowledge and institutions influenced the river management policy debate in Hungary from 1997 to 2009. Specifically we examined which factors characteristic of conventional Control vs. progressive Adaptive management regimes influenced these interactions in ways that contributed to or hindered transformation. We found that governance and social learning issues predominated, with lesser roles played by factors related to integration of sectors and different levels in the science and policy of river management.     

Climate change adaptation strategies in the Mekong and Orange-Senqu basins: What determines the state-of-play?

The challenge of governing transboundary water resources is expected to increase with climate change and the resulting need to adapt to its impacts such as temperature increase, more precipitation in the wet season and less in the dry season. In a number of transboundary basins, international regimes, and in particular river basin commissions, are emerging to account for this and other challenges. Some basins are, however, rather advanced in terms of developing climate change adaptation strategies, while others are in a more nascent stage. For the two case studies of the Orange-Senqu and Mekong river basins, this paper attempts to explain the different degrees of progress towards climate change adaptation by applying regime effectiveness analysis. First, we analyze, using the Activity Diagram (AD) of the Management and Transition Framework (MTF), at which stage in the climate change adaptation policy formation process each of the two basins is. Then we attempt to explain the different degrees of progress towards adaptation by means of regime effectiveness theory. Variables indicating regime effectiveness are taken from the literature and further developed to suit the context of climate change adaptation. We find that the different degrees of progress can partially be explained by some variables of regime effectiveness such as the characteristics of rules and procedures, organizational structure, the role of riparian countries as well as international context. At the same time, the analysis points to the need for an analysis of additional factors that potentially shape decision-making and policy processes for climate change adaptation in international river basins such as (a) the hydrological, political and socio-economic setting, (b) underlying principles of regional cooperation (or conflict), (c) interests and values of the various actors in the negotiation process and (d) the possible linkages and trade-offs with other policy fields.     

Coping with change: responses of the Uzbek water management regime to socio-economic transition and global change

Water management in Uzbekistan (Central Asia) is facing tremendous challenges. They are rooted in past and present environmental degradation, the socio-economic transition after the breakup of the Soviet Union, and the impacts of climate change. The Uzbek government has initiated reforms in the agricultural and water sectors to steer the socio-economic transition and address the threats of increasing water scarcity and decreasing agricultural productivity. However, despite the urgency of the problems and massive international assistance changes to the water management regime have only been minimal so far. In this paper we identify major structural barriers for adaptation of the water management regime through an analysis of two recent policy processes. Both processes address pressing water management issues such as “coping with extreme events” and “providing water for ecosystems”. They were analyzed using the Management and Transition Framework as well as a group model building exercises with stakeholders on the national, regional and local levels. The analyses reveal a lack of vertical integration across administrative levels of the formal system and a still prevailing strong centralization of water management. Moreover the water management regime is strongly influenced by informal institutions that shape the outcomes of policy processes. The interactions guided by informal institutions provide an informal link between different administrative levels of the regime. However, those informal networks and the social capital embedded in them rather prevent needed changes. The resulting combination of top down institutional change initiated by socio-economic transition and bottom-up consolidation of the existing status quo via informal processes and networks prevents social learning. It also slows down an adaptation process that potentially could lead to a transition towards a more adaptive regime.     

Re-thinking water policy priorities in the Mediterranean region in view of climate change

Water is scarce in Mediterranean countries: cities are crowded with increasing demand; food is produced with large amounts of water; ecosystems demand more water that is often available; drought affects all. As climate change impacts become more noticeable and costlier, some current water management strategies will not be useful. According to the findings of CIRCE, the areas with limited water resources will increase in the coming decades with major consequences for the way we produce food and we protect ecosystems. Based on these projections this paper discusses water policy priorities for climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean. We first summarise the main challenges to water resources in Mediterranean countries and outline the risks and opportunities for water under climate change based on previous studies. Recognising the difficulty to go from precipitation to water policy, we then present a framework to evaluate water availability in response to natural and management conditions, with an example of application in the Ebro basin that exemplifies other Mediterranean areas. Then we evaluate adaptive capacity to understand the ability of Mediterranean countries to face, respond and recover from climate change impacts on water resources. Social and economic factors are key drivers of inequality in the adaptive capacity across the region. Based on the assessment of impacts and adaptive capacity we suggest thresholds for water policy to respond to climate change and link water scarcity indicators to relevant potential adaptation strategies. Our results suggest the need to further prioritise socially and economically sensitive policies.     

Mitigation needs adaptation: Tropical forestry and climate change

The relationship between tropical forests and global climate change has so far focused on mitigation, while much less emphasis has been placed on how management activities may help forest ecosystems adapt to this change. This paper discusses how tropical forestry practices can contribute to maintaining or enhancing the adaptive capacity of natural and planted forests to global climate change and considers challenges and opportunities for the integration of tropical forest management in broader climate change adaptation. In addition to the use of reduced impact logging to maintain ecosystem integrity, other approaches may be needed, such as fire prevention and management, as well as specific silvicultural options aimed at facilitating genetic adaptation. In the case of planted forests, the normally higher intensity of management (with respect to natural forest) offers additional opportunities for implementing adaptation measures, at both industrial and smallholder levels. Although the integration in forest management of measures aimed at enhancing adaptation to climate change may not involve substantial additional effort with respect to current practice, little action appears to have been taken to date. Tropical foresters and forest-dependent communities appear not to appreciate the risks posed by climate change and, for those who are aware of them, practical guidance on how to respond is largely non-existent. The extent to which forestry research and national policies will promote and adopt management practices in order to assist production forests adapt to climate change is currently uncertain. Mainstreaming adaptation into national development and planning programs may represent an initial step towards the incorporation of climate change considerations into tropical forestry.     

Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors.     

Including adaptation costs and climate change damages in evaluating post-2012 burden-sharing regimes

Many studies have been published to evaluate the consequences of different post-2012 emission allocation regimes on regional mitigation costs. This paper goes one step further and evaluates not only mitigation costs, but also adaptation costs and climate change damages. Three post-2012 emission allocation regimes (Contraction & Convergence, Multistage and Common but differentiated convergence) and two climate targets (2°C and 3°C above the pre-industrial level) are considered. This explorative analysis shows that including these other cost categories could lead to different perspectives on the outcomes of allocation regimes. Up to 2050, the poorest regions have negative mitigation costs under all allocation regimes considered, as they benefit from emission trading. However, these regions also suffer from the most severe climate impacts. As such, the financial flows due to emission trading from developed to developing countries created under these allocation regimes could also be interpreted as compensation of climate change damages and adaptation costs. In the longer run, the sum of climate change damages, adaptation costs and mitigation costs are the highest in the poorest regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, for both climate targets and practically all emission allocation regimes.     

Institutionalising social learning: Towards systemic and adaptive governance

This paper critically examines how public policy makers limit policy and other institutional design choices by a failure to appreciate (i) how situations may be characterised or framed; (ii) how practices that generate neologisms (invented terms or concepts) or reify (make into a thing) abstract concepts can displace understandings, and (iii) the epistemological bases of governance mechanism choices. An inquiry into the coining of the neologisms ‘wicked’ and ‘tame’ problems is reported and the implications for research and policy practice explored. As practices, neologising, reifying, categorising and typologising have unintended consequences – they remove us from the primary experiences and underlying emotions that provided the motivation for formulating these concepts in the first place. The failure to institutionalise the understandings and experiences that sit behind the invention of the terms ‘wicked’ and ‘tame’ problems (or similar framing choices such as ‘problematique’, ‘messes’, ‘lowland real-life swamps’, ‘resource dilemmas’ or ‘complex adaptive systems’) present systemic constraints to institutionalising social learning as an alternative yet complementary governance mechanism within an overall systemic and adaptive governance framework. Ultimately situations usefully framed as ‘wicked’,’ such as water managing and climate change are problems of relationship – of human beings with the biosphere. Re-framings, such as institutions as social technologies and other research and praxis traditions concerned with the breakdown of relationships may offer ways forward in the purposeful designing and crafting of more effective institutions.     

Nuclear power and post-2012 energy and climate change policies

At present there is no binding agreement (at a global level) to address the risk of anthropogenic climate change after 2012. Disagreements abound with respect to a post-2012 climate change agreement, on issues such as economic development, policy criteria, environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, equity, dynamic flexibility, complementarity, enforceability and so on. One such disagreement is whether or not nuclear power should play a role in a post-2012 climate change agreement. This qualitative analysis explores the conditions under which nuclear power could contribute to addressing climate change in post-2012 architectures. It reveals that – given the right framework conditions – some architectures, like ‘cap and trade’ regimes or ‘policies and measures’ can improve the competitiveness of nuclear power plants, while others are unlikely to provide incentives for nuclear energy development in the short to medium term, such as adaptation and technology cooperation. Overall, the study concludes that post-2012 climate change policy should aim at providing policy flexibility without compromising technology flexibility. For example, the provision of long-term commitment periods has the potential to enable better investments in existing low-carbon technologies but stifle the policy flexibility that political decision makers are often keen to retain so that they can respond more quickly to new scientific evidence or advances in clean technology development.     

Creating resilient water governance for irrigated producers in Mendoza,Argentina

This research explores the institutional water governance system of irrigated agricultural producers in Mendoza, Argentina in the context of a changing climate (predominantly increasing events of drought and water scarcity). An assessment is made of the impact of water governance instruments on producers using the methodology of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Analysis focuses on the impact of the institutional water governance system on the adaptive capacity of producers’ resources, or capitals (human, social, economic, technological, and natural). Conclusions and suggestions for improving the resiliency of agricultural producers and increasing the adaptive dimensions of Mendoza’s water governance system are made based on this analysis.     

Can community-based governance strengthen citizenship in support of climate change adaptation? Testing insights from Self-Determination Theory

Motivation plays a powerful role in guiding human decision-making and behaviour, including adaptation to climate change. This study aimed to determine whether community-based governance would increase behavioural support, in the form of donation behaviour, for a climate change adaptation trust fund. A sample of 548 Australians was randomly assigned to view one of two governance scenarios: (1) a community-based scenario in which community members were afforded a high level of autonomy in designing and allocating funding within a trust fund to help their community adapt to climate change, or (2) a government-centred scenario in which decision making regarding the trust fund remained with government officials. Path analysis revealed that the community-based scenario produced significantly higher levels of perceived autonomy support within the study’s participants. High levels of perceived autonomy support predicted higher levels of autonomous motivation (indicating stronger citizenship) and lower levels of amotivation, a motivational pattern, which, in turn, predicted greater willingness to donate to the climate change adaptation trust. Results are interpreted in terms of Self-Determination Theory and Motivational Crowding Theory.     

Adaptation or conflict? Responses to climate change in water management in Bangladesh

The potential of climate change to impact local conflict and cooperation over natural resources has received relatively little attention. Bangladesh floodplains are highly vulnerable to environmental stresses that are worsening with climate change, and community organisations have to respond to water insecurity − seasonally too little or too much. Two case studies based on action research in contrasting water and climate stressed floodplain environments in Bangladesh investigate local conflicts over water management that worsened when water regimes changed. By overcoming conflicts and improving adaptation for all local actors the cases reveal the importance of local knowledge, innovations in institutions, external facilitation, and incentives provided by disadvantaged groups who contribute towards costs in return for a share in decision making power and better adapted water management. The cases show how community organisations diversified their responsibilities and took up the challenge of water management to address local priorities and overcome conflicts. Without a more flexible and enabling approach, public investments in adaptation are likely to focus on strengthening existing water management infrastructure without understanding local social interactions and complexity. This may strengthen elite dominance and local conflicts if there is no comparable investment in developing robust and fair local institutions.     

Agricultural adaptation to climate change: insights from a farming community in Sri Lanka

The vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability is increasingly rising. As agriculture is the only source of income for most of them, agricultural adaptation with respect to climate change is vital for their sustenance and to ensure food security. In order to develop appropriate strategies and institutional responses, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the farmers’ perception of climate change, actual adaptations at farm-level and what factors drive and constrain their decision to adapt. Thus, this study investigates the farm-level adaptation to climate change based on the case of a farming community in Sri Lanka. The findings revealed that farmers’ perceived the ongoing climate change based on their experiences. Majority of them adopted measures to address climate change and variability. These adaptation measures can be categorised into five groups, such as crop management, land management, irrigation management, income diversification, and rituals. The results showed that management of non-climatic factors was an important strategy to enhance farmers’ adaptation, particularly in a resource-constrained smallholder farming context. The results of regression analysis indicated that human cognition was an important determinant of climate change adaptation. Social networks were also found to significantly influence adaptation. The study also revealed that social barriers, such as cognitive and normative factors, are equally important as other economic barriers to adaptation. While formulating and implementing the adaptation strategies, this study underscored the importance of understanding socio-economic, cognitive and normative aspects of the local communities.     

The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part I—Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability

Vulnerability is a term frequently used to describe the potential threat to rural communities posed by climate variability and change. Despite growing use of the term, analytical measures of vulnerability that are useful for prioritising and evaluating policy responses are yet to evolve. Demand for research capable of prioritising adaptation responses has evolved rapidly with an increasing awareness of climate change and its potential impacts on rural communities. Research into the climate-related vulnerability of Australian rural communities is only just beginning to emerge. Current research is dominated by hazard/impact modelling, drawing on a heritage of managing the risks posed by seasonal climate variability. There is a natural tendency to use the same risk management approach to understand the emergent nature of vulnerability. In this paper, we explore the consequences for policy advice of imperfectly examining vulnerability through the lens of an impact/hazard modelling approach to risk management. In a second paper in this series, we show how hazard/impact modelling can be complemented with more holistic measures of adaptive capacity to provide quantitative insights into the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change.     

A Framework and Key Questions for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change

There is a critical need to collectively understand, to develop adaptation options to enhance the benefits, and to reduce the social and economic vulnerabilities induced by climate variability and change. This paper uses key questions to help build a framework for adaptation by first organizing the questions into adaptation science, management and option components, including their respective sub-categories. The process of adaptation depends on many factors, including who or what adapts, what they adapt to, how they adapt and what and how resources are used. This conceptual model is designed to organize concepts regarding adaptation, to help stimulate ideas, and to explore the linkages among parts of the adaptation cycle. Predictive models need to be developed to determine the outcomes of planned adaptation strategies. For the best and most realistic evaluation of climate problems, adaptation and impacts should be considered together. This joint approach improves the assessment of the significance and dangers of the current and future climate, as well as the determination of solutions (e.g., how to prepare for a changing climate) and their priorities. Challenges of adaptive management are discussed in terms of a framework with linkages to adaptation science and options. Adaptation research and applications work continue to build on the foundation of science and management frameworks to address the risks and uncertainties in the decision-making process and to identify adaptation options.     

National laws and policies can enable or confound adaptive governance: Examples from South African national parks

There is growing appreciation that protected areas, like all social-ecological systems (SES), are inherently complex and face an unpredictable future under the influence of global environmental change. Adaptive management is the accepted approach for managing complex SES to ensure their resilience, but unless it is supported by a governance system that is itself adaptive it has little chance of success. Scholars have identified certain principles conducive to adaptive governance. Environmental legislation, an important component of the governance system, is often misaligned with these principles. In this paper we assess adaptive governance principles with regard to legislation governing South Africa’s national parks. This assessment indicates that, to enable adaptive governance and adaptive management, legislation should (1) be co-produced by policy-makers, policy implementers and users of protected area ecosystem services; (2) commit and empower management agencies to apply the principles of adaptive governance and adaptive management, particularly in the collaborative development of management plans; (3) commit agencies to review management plans and allow flexibility to adapt plans; (4) ensure that the temporal and spatial scales of the governance system match those of the SES being managed; (5) anticipate change and avoid assumptions of system stability and predictability; and (6) provide for flexible financing mechanisms, so that funds can be prioritised and timed to meet the unpredictable demands of complex systems.